Best Scheme Fit: Preferably
as a change-of-pace/third-down back initially for an offense that
relies more heavily on gap-blocking schemes. There is lead-back
upside if he learns to embrace contact more often and corrects
his ball security issues.
Best Team Fit(s): Chargers, Cowboys, Giants,
Cardinals
Non-bolded times - Good examples of attribute Bolded times - Average/poor examples of attribute
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For running backs, a player needs to be a
three-down option as well as a realistic threat for 1,000 rushing
yards and 500 receiving yards to be a candidate for a perfect
grade. Positional scarcity at the pro level is also a part of
the equation.
Positives
Great acceleration and excellent speed for a back his size
(220 pounds).
Choppy feet allow him to cut violently and change direction
easily.
Good field presence as a runner, relying heavily on his quickness
initially and showing a great sense as to when he needs to hit
the gas and lengthen his stride.
Big-play machine in space (i.e. screen plays); gained at
least 20 yards on six of his 31 receptions over the last two
seasons; generated an explosive run (15-plus yards) on 12 percent
of his 291 career carries).
Untapped upside as a receiver (34 career catches); NFL teams
will do a better job of isolating a back with hands and elusiveness
in space against a linebacker.
Negatives
Too eager to bounce runs.
Lacks the necessary leg drive to power through tackles and
finish as often as a back his size should.
Tends to get lazy with ball carriage (fumbled nine times
on 325 career touches over three seasons).
Suffered a torn ACL in 2020 and missed time in each of his
four college seasons.
Underutilized throughout his college career; criminally misused
at USC (especially in the passing game), topping 15 touches
one time; he had more games with single-digit carries (six)
than double-digit (five) in 2023.
Although he usually showed a solid foundation AND good form/tenacity
when given the chance as a blocker, a few of his worst blocks
came at critical times.
Bottom Line
Lloyd's physical measurements suggest he is a rugged and powerful
inside runner. His tape tells a much different story. The South
Carolina transfer is one of the quickest and most elusive prospects
in this draft class. Pro Football Focus charted him with a missed
tackle forced on 41 percent of his carries in 2023, which ranked
fourth among qualified running backs in 2023. His NFL Combine
speed (4.46) translates as well, as evidenced by his 54 runs of
10-plus yards on 291 career carries. Perhaps best of all, his
patience and ability to set up blocks improved as his college
career progressed.
Unlike most 220-pound running back prospects, Lloyd does not
usually play to his size, especially as an inside runner. His
first instinct is to bounce runs to the outside, which could be
a minor thing (believing he is a better athlete than anyone trying
to tackle him) or a big thing (little to no confidence in his
vision or ability to anticipate a crease). I would lean toward
the former, but it is a question mark nonetheless. Lloyd did not
win many head-to-head battles in the hole against a linebacker
or move the pile very often throughout his college career. His
nine fumbles on 325 career touches is also an alarming number.
While it is a good thing his odometer was not maxed out in college,
it is concerning he never handled more than 129 touches in any
year.
Lloyd's natural talent - specifically his speed and explosiveness
- has a place in the NFL. To what degree he can improve his vision
(which is a difficult thing to ask) and his new team can coach
(or convince) him to bounce runs only when he has to will ultimately
determine if he ends up primarily as a change-of-pace/third-down
option or a potential lead back. While Lloyd's receiving talents
were rarely on display at either one of his stops in college,
some team will almost certainly fall in love with his upside in
the passing game and believe they can maximize his playmaking
ability in that area at the very least. However, considering he
is essentially a 220-pound scatback right now, it seems likely
that he will begin his NFL career as a complementary back in a
thunder-and-lightning setup and remain in that role.
Doug Orth has written for FFToday since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
