Last Week's Projections
(11-5) Straight Up - 68.7%
(10-6) Against The Spread - 62.5%
For The Season
(106-70) Straight Up - 60.2%
(98-75-3) Against The Spread - 56.6%
Arizona at Detroit (-6),
The Lions still have an outside shot at the playoffs even
after they took a thrashing from the Colts. It was expected. Manning
has been pounding the crap out of every defense he sees this year.
But 41-9 was more than most expected. I was watching during Thanksgiving
dinner and changed the channel to Sponge Bob it was so pitiful.
Harrington got the big ax at halftime and in came crowd favorite
Mike McMahon who has more fans than talent. Basically the Lions
must win this won to stay in the playoff race. I think they should
be ok to cover the 6 with Smith out and Arizona having their own
Arizona has two problems this week. Who to start at RB and who
to start at QB? These are not two problems you want to have going
into week13. Neither McCown nor King was very effective last week
as both combined for 181 yards and a pathetic 0 TDS and 3 INTS.
Some dude named Croom rushed for 25 yards and that ain't good
enough. Detroit's defense will be a good start in this one. They
are one of the leagues best at causing turnovers. Go with nobody
on the Cardinals and Roy Williams and Kevin Jones for the Lions.
Final Score: Lions 22, Cardinals
Buffalo (-3 1/2) at Miami,
Well I learned my lesson last week. The damn Bills kept Cliff
from going 8-0 last week. I knew not to bet against these guys.
They have been playing inspired ball since their 0-4 start. Since
then they are 5-2 behind some solid defense and the play of Willis
McGahee. It looks as though Travis Henry will be out for the rest
of the year. Like it would really matter at this point as McGahee
polished off the Seahawks on the road with 4 TDS. The Bills are
trying to do it the old fashioned way with a good running game and
defense. They are no longer depending on Bledsoe to win games for
them. The only thing they must be wary of is Bledsoe's tendency
to throw away games as he had 3 INTS in this one. He must protect
the ball and let McGahee and company bring home the wins. They should
easily handle Miami. Start Bledsoe, McGahee, Moulds and the Bills
Miami won the battle for the #1 pick against the 49ers last week.
They won the game with their defense of course but more importantly
the fact that Barlow is a real bust this year. He got out-rushed
by some bum named Hicks by 26 yards. The Dolphins have no running
game with Minor and a crappy offensive line. Feeley had another
embarrassing start with 159 yards and 1 INT. They are pitiful
but not as pitiful as the 49ers. The only intelligent one in this
entire organization was Dave and that is because he left this
mess. They should be begging Ricky to come back. He would immediately
become the best offense weapon they have and he hasn't played
in a year. Play nobody in this team except the defense.
Final Score: Bills 24, Miami
Atlanta (+2) at Tampa Bay,
I would like to point out that Antonio and I were an outstanding
13-3 against the line week. That takes a big sack of nuts if you
ask me. Atlanta almost tripped a little towards the finish line
as they let the Saints crawl back into this one after leading
17-6 at halftime. Vick has got to be more accurate when they reach
the playoffs or it will be a short trip. He was only 16-29 (55%)
and in the west coast offense that just is not good enough. They
let McAllister run like he was in a track meet for 100 yards.
They better watch it this week, as the Bucs are very good at home.
I think the Falcons have a good defense and enough offense to
win this one. However Vick usually struggles vs. the Tampa.
Things are not going all that well in Buc land. Too much sun
is bad for anyone. Quite frankly there is nobody happier than
me to see Gruden losing. I can't stand the guy and hope that he
falls flat on his face. I bet you didn't see two things coming
in the Buc/Panther game. I know you didn't see Nick Goings going
for 106 yards against this defense and Griese throwing for 347.
Michael Pittman has simply been the man since his return. He had
134 yards and 2 TDS receiving to go along with his 29 yards rushing.
It seems this is what the Falcons will need to focus on. The man
playing for a contract. The Bucs would be stupid to let him go.
Play Griese and Pittman.
Final Score: Falcons 21, Bucs
Carolina (+1) at New
Orleans, 1:00 pm
Carolina is playing some good ball for a change. They have won
three in a row after losing 7 of their first 8. Playing in the
pitiful NFC doesn't hurt as they are still in the hunt for the
final playoff spot. How the hell can you win only one game in
the first half of the year and still be in the hunt for the playoffs.
That shows you that there is some bad ball being played on the
NFC side of things. Nick Goings seems like the answer to their
short-term problems as he rushed for 106 yards against a tough
Buccaneers defense. Delhomme was very consistent as he scored
on two TDS and didn't hurt his team. Go with Delhomme, Goings,
and Muhammad in this one.
The Saints are trying to go marching in but keep coming up short.
I think this will be the last march for Haslett as his ra-ra BS
no longer works on this team. Brooks is just not going to be a
big-time QB as everyone thought and the only playmakers they have
are Mcallister and Horn. They just came seem to find the gear
to pull out games. However they are 4-7 and as well in position
to get into the playoffs if they can win a few. They need to start
win Carolina but I see this defense getting gashed by Goings and
the offense having trouble moving the ball with Peppers dominating
the game as he did last week against the Bucs.
Final Score: Panthers 28, Saints
Cincinnati at Baltimore
(-7), 1:00 pm
How about that offensive showdown between the Bengals and Browns
last week? See ya Butch. You sucked anyway. Browns fans should
be happy to see him go. He did basically nothing the entire time
he was there. Anyway, we go to the Bengals. They were torched
and got torched in this game. Those of you who started Palmer
had to be happy to see him throw for 251 yards and 4 TDS. You
got to love that. However Rudi J looked better as he crushed the
Browns for 202 yards and 2 TDS. Chad Johnson had a big game as
well catching 10 balls for 117 yards and a TD. The big problem
was the defense almost gave up just as much. Actually more to
Holcomb. Pretty close to 500 yards given up by this D. That will
be the reason they lose this game.
Baltimore was just no match for the Patriots at home. Boller was
overwhelmed by the Pats D as he only completed 93 yards and didn't
get close to the end zone. He had an interception, a fumble lost
for a TD, 4 sacks. Just a horrendous game by the whole offense.
The offense should find the Bengals D more to their liking. What
I found disturbing was that the Ravens D was manhandled by the
Pats offensive line. Also is anyone else sick of seeing Shannon
Sharpe kiss Ray Lewis's ass on a weekly basis? To be honest Ray's
stats were not that great as he only had 8 tackles and no real
big plays. This was a big game and big players are supposed to
show up but he didn't in this one. I have respect for his skill
but let's not crown him the best until his career is over. But
they should have a pretty good day at home against the Bungals.
Final Score: Ravens 28, Bungals
Houston (No Line) at
N.Y. Jets, 1:00 pm
That's two weeks in a row the Jets have foiled my prediction behind
the magic of quixotic Quincy Carter. The former medical examiner,
forensic expert and sometimes quarterback is doing just what he
did in Dallas last year - winning cheesily against bad opponents
with poor defenses and anemic offensive capabilities. The exception
was Cleveland, but that was before they had Kelly "Machine Gun"
Holcomb as their starter. Anyway, I digress...
The Texans should have a hard time scoring multiple touchdowns
against the 8-3 Jets, whose defense ranks among the top five in
points against with just 168 allowed in 11 games (about 15.3 per
game). Since Houston scores about 21 per game, I think we'll probably
see the Texans offense put up one TD and three field goals. While
QB David Carr was a decent option in September, this would be
a good week to bench him. RB Domanick Davis and WR Andre Johnson
are the best offensive options this week, and on defense, you
can't do much better than LB Jamie Sharper. Other IDP options
include LB Kailee Wong, LB Jay Foreman (check injury report) and
DB Marcus Coleman.
The Jets may see the return of Chad Pennington, whose status is
the solitary reason this game has no line. Even if Carter is still
in there, the Jets QB position looks to be a good one against
a poor Houston secondary. RB Curtis Martin, WR Santana Moss and
WR Justin McCareins should be solid fantasy contributors this
week. IDP options for the Jets include DL John Abraham and Shaun
Ellis, LB Jonathan Vilma and LB Eric Barton.
Final Score: Jets 24, Texans
Minnesota (-7) at Chicago,
I had the misfortune of facing Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss, Onterrio
Smith and Thomas Jones the last time these teams squared off.
They look to be the main guys again this week.
The Vikings usually do well against the Bears, and with the Cowboys
rolling over them on Thanksgiving, I don't expect them to put
up much of a fight versus the Purple People Eaters. Start Culpepper,
Moss, Smith, WR Nate Burleson and TE Jermaine Wiggins. On defense,
the Vikings have been getting good games from DL Kevin Williams,
DL Lance Johnstone (except last week) LB E.J. Henderson, and DB
Antoine Winfield. Look for Winfield's numbers to go down a little
on Sunday with DB Corey Chavous rebounding from some mediocre
games with a big week.
The Bears have useless quarterbacks and useless wide receivers,
but a decent running back in Jones. And despite all that uselessness,
they've won four games. Don't play anybody except Thomas Jones,
and if you choose to play any of those wide receivers, don't say
I didn't warn you. On defense, go with LB Lance Briggs, LB Hunter
Hillenmeyer, DL Alex Brown, and DBs R.W. McQuarters, Jerry Azumah
and Mike Green.
Final Score: Vikings 34, Bears
New England (-7.5) at
Cleveland, 1:00 pm
After the Browns gave up 58 to the Bengals, Pats QB Tom Brady
has got to be looking forward to this one.
The Patriots have faced a slew of solid opponents since the first
couple games of the year and should get a break against the Browns,
who couldn't stop a slow-moving skateboard. Brady will have a
field day with the Browns secondary, distributing the ball to
each of his receivers. Start Brady, RB Corey Dillon, WR Deion
Branch, WR David Patten, WR David Givens and even TE Daniel Graham
if you've still got him. On defense, the Pats have lots of great
IDP stars, including DB Rodney Harrison, LB Tedy Bruschi and DL
Richard Seymour. Also worth considering are DB Eugene Wilson,
DL Ty Warren and LBs Ted Johnson and Mike Vrabel.
The Browns just had their coach resign and are still without a
team leader. While there aren't too many guys who would have told
you to play Kelly Holcomb last week, I was one of them and was
gloating a bit on Sunday after calling his blowout performance.
Of course, I didn't pick him up but got 31 from Bulger on Monday
night - so I wasn't too upset. Stick with Holcomb again this week
and you haven't picked him up yet, go ahead. While the Pats should
get up early and stay on the accelerator, the Browns are still
facing a debilitated secondary that doesn't handle all-out passing
attacks very well. The running backs, however, have little value
given the Pats run defense and prospects of the come-from behind
aerial necessities. Bank on WR Antonio Bryant this week, and consider
Steve "Don't call me Eric" Heiden if your TE situation has been
in shambles. On defense, I'd go with LB Barry Gardner, DB Robert
Griffith and DL Kenard Lang.
Final Score: Patriots 38, Browns
San Francisco (+10.5)
at St. Louis, 1:00 pm
With the Rams defense looking absolutely pitiful Monday Night,
I'm not so sure the Niners don't have a chance on Sunday. Either
way, a bunch of guys should get lots of fantasy points in this
The 49ers face a poor defense and a decent chance to score multiple
touchdowns. If you've still got them, start QB Tim Rattay, RB
Kevan Barlow, WR Brandon Lloyd and TE Eric Johnson. Even WR Cedrick
Wilson and backup RB Maurice Hicks might get some action. IDP
options include LB Jamie Winborn, LB Derek Smith, DB Tony Parrish
and DL Bryant Young.
The Rams offense is getting a lot of yardage, especially when
the defense gives up scores after about three or four plays and
allows St. Louis to dominate time of possession but lose the game.
Hey, as a Marc Bulger owner, I'm not complaining about that. Bulger
should continue to do his thing against San Fran, along with RB
Marshall Faulk, WR Torry Holt, WR Isaac Bruce and WR Shaun McDonald.
IDP options include DL Leonard Little, who had his off-game last
week, LB Pino Tinoisamoa and DB Adam Archuleta.
Final Score: Rams 31, 49ers
(+10.5) at Indianapolis, 1:00 p.m.
This should be a great division rivalry with playoff implication,
but with the Titans struggling in 2004, even a win here would
be too little, too late.
The Titans should get decent fantasy days from QB Steve McNair,
RB Antowain Smith, WR Derrick Mason and maybe even WR Drew Bennett
and TE Erron Kinney. IDP options include LB Keith Bulluck, who
is all over the field, rookie DL Randy Starks, DB Samari Rolle
and DB Lamont Thompson.
The Colts have three of the top eight fantasy receivers in the
game in Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and WR Brandon Stokley
and two of the top 11 tight ends in Marcus Pollard and Dallas
Clark. I'd like to be able to tell you who will have the multi-TD
game From a fantasy perspective, but since this is not a perfect
science, I can't. What I can tell you is that Colts games should
be approached like the flopped high two pair in Texas Hold 'Em
- you play the odds and hope that somebody doesn't best you on
the river. While there's a chance your guy gets held out of the
scoring column, the odds are pretty good he'll find the end zone
if he's wearing a Colts jersey. Play Manning, James, and every
receiver and tight end you can. IDP options include DL Robert
Mathis, LBs Cato June and LB David Thornton, along with whatever
DBs are healthy at gametime.
Final Score: Colts 37, Titans
Bay (+6.5) at Philadelphia, 4:15 p.m
While you never know what to expect from the Brett Favre and the
Packers, they have a chance to avenge last year's playoff debacle
against Philly with a win this week.
The Packers won't score 45 against the Eagles, but Favre, WR Javon
Walker and WR Donald Driver should be good plays this week. Keep
an eye on the status of RB Ahman Green, who will be replaced by
RB Najeh Davenport again if he can't go. Green and Davenport may
also split carries, but the passing game should be the focus in
this matchup anyway. On defense, it looks like DB Ahmad Carroll
has been getting lots of action his way, LBs Nai'll DIggs and
LB Nick Barnett are decent and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila is still the
man on the D-line.
The Eagles can bank on solid games from QB Donovan McNabb, RB
Brian Westbrook and WR Terrell Owens, and may even see some output
from WR Todd Pinkston and TE L.J. Smith. IDP options include LB
Jeremiah Trotter, LB Mark Simoneau, DB Lito Sheppard and DB Brian
Final Score: Eagles 27, Packers
N.Y. Giants (+2.5) at
Washington, 4:15 p.m.
Even the Giants should be able to dispatch the lowly Redskins,
who are rapidly becoming the worst team in football.
The Giants won't go crazy on offense, but should see good games
from RB Tiki Barber, WR Amani Toomer and TE Jeremy Shockey, although
you shouldn't get any ideas about starting QB Eli Manning or anybody
else. On defense, there's a few options, including LB Barrett
Green and Kevin Lewis. Watch the injury report for the status
on rookie DB Gibril Wilson.
The Redskins have Patrick Ramsey starting at QB, but that doesn't
mean you should. The best offensive option is obviously Clinton
Portis, with an outside possibility of WR Laveranues Coles, WR
Rod Gardner or TE Chris Cooley catching a TD pass. The best advice
I can give is to look elsewhere. On defense, the best LB of late
has been Marcus Washington, with LB Antonio Pierce and DBs Sean
Taylor and Shawn Springs as viable IDP performers.
Final Score: Giants 17, Redskins
at San Diego (-3), 4:05 p.m.
The Chargers still are playing some great ball. They are really
one of the top three or four teams in football right now. They
stayed in there in won the offensive shoot-out with the Chiefs.
Brees who was looking for a way out at the seasons start is now
looking for a contract extension as he had another fine game with
378 yards and 2 TDS. He completed 76% of his passes and clearly
had control of the offense. He looked early and often for Gates
and Tomlinson. Antonio Gates is clearly the best TE in football
and is close to the league record of 12 TDS for a TE. He will
pass the record this week I think. Tomlinson is doing it from
both ends now as he had 10 catches for 57 yards and another 46
yards rushing and 2 TDS. I think at home and clearly waiting for
this game they will be the victors pretty soundly. Start Brees,
Tomlinson, and Gates this week.
Well, well well. I saw where Antonio tried to give the Broncos
the benefit of the doubt and picked them to win last week. This
article I will enjoy because last weeks game shows clearly why
the Broncos have been overrated all year long. First they were
at home against an opponent who had far less riding on this game.
Giving up the 42 yarder to Porter with 16 seconds on the clock
was probably the worst bit of defense I have seen all year. I
don't think I have ever seen a player get smoked as much as Bailey
did in this game. It seems it was that way against Chad Johnson
was well. Every time Bailey has to go up against a good WR he
lays an egg but gets all the credit when he shuts down Johnny
Morton. Two fumbles and an interception will not get it done.
Just wait and see what Brees does to this team. Start Droughns
and Rod Smith.
Final Score: Chargers 30, Broncos
Kansas City (pick) at
Oakland, 4:05 p.m.
The Chiefs just ran into a team that is on a roll against the
Chargers. I think the Chiefs just keep finding ways to lose. It
is clear they have a great offense even without Holmes but the
problem is they can't keep anyone off the scoreboard. If Hall
holds on to that kick return then they probably win this game.
Holmes will be out again this week but will return next week.
So start Blaylock again if you need him. I think Green should
have a good game in this one. Gonzalez is on a roll as he posted
another 100-yard game. You may see a little Larry Johnson in this
one, as the Chiefs need to see what this kid has. Start Green,
Blaylock, maybe Johnson, and Gonzo.
Well the Raiders pulled off the big upset of Denver on the road
last week. Collins and Porter both came up big in this game as
they are looking towards next year. Collins torched a previously
decent Broncos defense with 339 yards and 4 TDS in a freakin blizzard.
Porter had 135 yards and 3 TDS. That was his best outing of the
year and what fantasy owners have been looking for from him for
the last 13 weeks. He will probably have another good game as
the Chiefs are much worse against the pass as the Broncos. This
is a rivalry game going back to the Derrick Thomas and Okoye years.
So it should be a lot of fun. Start Collins and Porter in this
one as they should have big games.
Final Score: Chiefs 32, Raiders
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville
(+3), 8:30 p.m.
Is it me or does Pittsburgh not look quite as dominating as they
did a couple of weeks ago? I guess you can say they are playing
down to the competition but it is a very competitive AFC this
year and you are going to need a good record to get to the playoffs
with a home field game. The Steelers seemed a little flat against
a Redskin team that is flat horrible. Roethlisberger completed
less than 40% of his passes and looked really out of sync for
most of the game. Bettis had another strong day as he rushed for
100 yards and a score. I really think they are primed for an upset.
This Jacksonville team should be ready to go on Sunday and I think
the home field advantage will play a part. But Start Bettis as
he seems to be in full gear.
Jacksonville showed some great heart against Minnesota and damn
near beat them. Leftwich made some incredible throws in that game.
He is one to watch over the next few years. I think they know
this game is important in their playoff future and need this one
to get there. They will be primed to run Taylor like a rented
mule. I think Byron will find some holes in this defense and the
crowd should give Big Ben some problems. The Jags are great against
the run and should slow down the bus. I give the Jags the edge.
Final Score: Jags 21, Steelers
Dallas (+7) at Seattle,
I really don't know what to make of this game, and if anybody
tells you they know, they're lying. The smart money is on Seattle
rebounding from a horrible home loss to Buffalo, but with Dallas
coming off a Thanksgiving win, you never know. Since neither team
has been too great stopping the run as of late, things might open
The Cowboys will hand the reins back to veteran QB Vinny Testaverde,
who could be a decent #2 QB this week in 2QB leagues. RB Julius
Jones looked excellent last week and should have an okay day against
Seattle if he can stay healthy. WR Keyshawn Johnson and TE Jason
Witten are the best options in the passing game, and defensively,
stick with DB Roy Williams, LB Dat Nguyen and DL Greg Ellis.
The Seahawks will get back on track with decent games from QB
Matt Hasselbeck, RB Shaun Alexander and both WR Darrell Jackson
and WR Jerry Rice. The Seattle TE situation, like every week,
is a toss up, so stay away from both Itula Mili and Jerramy Stevens.
IDP options include DBs Ken Lucas and Ken Hamlin, LB Isaiah Kacyvenski
and DL Antonio Cochran.
Final Score: Seahawks 30, Cowboys