With the NFL Draft behind us, dynasty leaguers
are starting to prepare for their rookie drafts and because this
class has little clarity at most positions the more mocks we can
do the more prepared we will be. Before the NFL Draft, version
1.0 of my mock was based on player study, multiple rankings,
and perceived draft value. Now that we know the landing spots of
all the players involved we can get a better idea of where they
will land in most rookie drafts.
Once again, this mock is based on standard leagues (no superflex)
with traditional scoring setup.
Harry is the only player to not change from my previous mock and
while others will have him lower than this, I tend to value wide
receivers higher in dynasty leagues due to their relative longevity.
By being just one of two receivers selected in the first round of
the NFL Draft, Harry solidified his value with strong draft capital
and an excellent landing spot with the Patriots. Harry will fit
in perfectly, running short and intermediate routes using his run
after catch skills to gain extra yardage. As one of the biggest
targets currently on the team, Harry should also be an instant red
zone threat and could reach 8+ touchdowns as soon as his rookie
season. With no Gronk, Julian
Edelman on the downslope of his career, and Josh
Gordon’s future unclear, Harry could conceivably be the team’s
top option at some point during the 2019 season. Given how murky
this WR class is, Harry is the clear top option of the group and
therefore worthy of the top rookie pick.
Rookie Riser: Running back Josh Jacobs
is walking into a lead back role with the Oakland Raiders.
Jacobs was the only RB selected in the first round of the NFL draft
and this alone should move him up rankings, if he wasn’t already
towards the top to begin with. In Oakland, Jacobs should compete
to be an every-down back right away, with his only real competition
being Jalen Richard or perhaps the return of Doug Martin given Isaiah Crowell's recent Achilles injury. The Raiders have a solid offensive
line and some real playmakers at receiver including newly signed
Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams. With Jacobs having that three-down
skillset, game script shouldn’t matter too much as he could
do damage in both catch-up mode and clock-killing time. With Jon
Gruden having an extensive history of bellcow backs having fantasy
success, Jacobs should find himself in the top 20 conversation right
away and potentially higher for dynasty rankings. Of course Jacobs
never had ultra-production in college but the skills are certainly
there. He has the size of a traditional load-carrier and still has
a lot of tread remaining on his tires.
The hype train really started for Sanders after the NFL Combine,
where his numbers forced everyone to pay attention. Since then it
seems his stock was rising each week and the NFL certainly took
notice, with the Eagles drafting him in the second round. Many folks
will argue that Philadephia has been using a committee at RB position
the past few seasons so Sanders is a risky pick this early. I would
argue that they have not had anyone near as talented as Sanders
since LeSean McCoy, so they were forced to use multiple backs as
a result. With the rest of the RBs on the roster being in the final
year of their contract, I look for Sanders to be a long-term solution
but can also make a significant impact in year one. Much like Jacobs,
Sanders has the skills of a three-down back but unlike Jacobs he
is a near elite athlete for the position, potentially making his
ceiling a bit higher. I would not be afraid to select Sanders with
a top 5 pick in any fantasy football format based on draft capital,
landing spot, and talent.
Montgomery is very similar to both Jacobs and Sanders in that he
has the skills to be an every-down back in the NFL. I have him ranked
just below the other two because:
First, he is less of an athlete, as seen at the combine with
him putting up average numbers in most drills. Second, he has
a lot of miles on his legs comparatively speaking and we all know
the career of an NFL back is already very short. Finally, unlike
the other two backs, I see Montgomery’s competition - Tarik
Cohen - as a player that could take away significant snaps
from Montgomery. With all this being said, Montgomery is still
an excellent player with solid draft capital in an offense that
should feature him and be in a lot of close games. I wouldn’t
hesitate to take him right after Jacobs and Sanders are off the
board, as the next best dynasty RB. After Montgomery, there is
a significant drop at the position, so be happy if you can come
away with him at your draft.
Metcalf moves back a spot compared to the pre-draft mock, and
honestly I could see him swapping with probably any of the other
remaining receivers in this round, but I like his upside more
than the others so I think this is a good spot for him. Metcalf,
once projected to go in the top 15 picks of the draft, fell all
the way to the end of round two, being selected at the very end
by Seattle. Shortly after his selection word came out that Doug
Baldwin may be forced to retire with injuries so this pick
made a lot of sense and certainly boosted Metcalf’s potential.
In Seattle Metcalf will have the luxury of getting the ball from
one of the league’s elite Quarterbacks in Russel Wilson, and therefore,
even if the volume isn't there right away, the efficiency and
potential for big plays should be. While I still expect Metcalf
to take a backseat to Tyler
Lockett in year one, his dynasty arrow should be pointing
up as a potential alpha-dog in the Seahawks offense which will
have Wilson throwing to him for many years. While Metcalf certainly
has bust potential, his landing spot has helped lessen that likelihood,
while his potential remains sky high.
I know some people have an issue with a tight end going this high
in a normal rookie draft but I stand by the ranking, as Hockenson
should be an elite talent at the position and there are very few
sure things in this rookie class. Hockenson not only was selected
as a top 10 pick, but he also landed in a spot with a solid quarterback
in an offense that is trying to replicate the Patriots system
thanks to Matt Patricia. Can anyone guess which position flourished
in the Patriots system the past eight-plus+seasons? Ding ding
ding! Tight End is the correct answer! Now, I am not saying Hockenson
will instantly (or ever) turn into Gronk, but on paper he is very
similar - an elite blocker with soft hands and above average athleticism.
While everyone knows tight ends can take a while to develop I
would be shocked if Hockenson wasn’t the starter come Week 1,
playing a significant role. While he may not light up the stat
sheet, he should be good enough to finish as a low-end TE1 with
the potential for much more in the future. It may not be necessarily
a sexy pick, it is a very safe choice here with some sexy upside
in future seasons.
Some will argue with taking any quarterback this high in a rookie
draft but I see Murray as a high-ceiling player whose team not
only invested the No.1 overall pick in him, but also selected
three wide receivers for him to throw to. His detractors believe
he has a high bust potential thanks to his lack of size, while
I see a transcendent athlete at the position who combines Lamar
Jackson’s legs with Russell
Wilson’s arm. Add that to an offensive scheme that should
be quarterback friendly with a bevy of pass-catchers to throw
to and you have the makings of a top 12 fantasy quarterback from
day one. Don’t let the naysayers dissuade you, Murray is a special
talent that could revolutionize the position, making him easily
worthy of a top 8 pick in rookie drafts this season.
Much like Hockenson, Fant is an elite prospect at a position that
has become very thin in the NFL ranks, boosting his value even
more and making him worthy of a pick in the first round of rookie
drafts. With first round draft capital and a tight end friendly
quarterback, Fant increased his fantasy stock after the NFL draft
and could quickly become one of the league’s better pass-catchers
at the postion. Fant should see action right away as the tight
end depth chart in Denver is riddled with injury-ridden players
and marginal talents. While the wide receivers have some skills
(Sanders, Sutton, Hamilton) they are either old and coming off
injury (Sanders), unproven and raw (Sutton) or limited in their
upside (Hamilton). It’s hard to imagine Fant as the go-to guy
as a rookie, but it’s not outside the realm of possibilities,
as a frequent Fant comp Evan
Engram did just that in his rookie year after Beckham went
down with injury. Fant’s upside could be limited if the Broncos
misuse him in a blocking role but chances are good that they did
not select him this high in the draft without wanting to make
him a key player in the passing game. With the position slowly
aging out and becoming watered down, Fant represents a real chance
to become part of the new group of elite players at the position,
making him a nice choice at this stage of the first round.
1.09 Deebo
Samuel, WR, San Fransisco Mock 1.0: N/A
I liked Samuel before the NFL draft but didn’t think he would
get enough draft capital to warrant a first round selection. I
was obviously wrong, as San Fransisco chose him early in the second
round, causing him to rocket up rookie draft boards. With that
kind of investment from a team shallow at the position, Samuel
should be given the chance to start right away. Jimmy Garropolo
is coming back from injury and coach Shanahan will now have his
full set of toys back in the mix, which could make the Niners
offense sneaky good this season. The only real competition Samuel
should face is from Dante
Pettis who is similar to Samuel but less athletic. With George
Kittle taking a lot of the defenses focus, Samuel could find
himself in favorable matchups and could be especially valuable
in PPR leagues. While Samuel might not have the upside of Harry
or D.K. Metcalf,
he appears a very safe selection who you should be able to start
right away as a WR3 with upside.
No other player in fantasy football jumped higher up rookie rankngs
after the NFL draft than Hardman. The Chiefs traded up in the
second round to grab him, signaling they are coming to realize
that Tyreek Hill
is likely out the door leaving a gaping hole at the position.
They needed to get someone with field-stretching ability and Hardman
fits the bill perfectly. Hardman would have gone earlier but his
college production left a lot to be desired, albeit as part of
an offense with minimal pass volume. As an athlete, Hardman compares
favorably to Hill with both possessing elite speed and quickness
capable of being a difference maker as a returner. While it is
ridiculous to assume Hardman will duplicate or even come close
to Hill’s numbers this year, the fact remains that the Chiefs
will throw the ball a lot and Patrick
Mahomes will be staring at a group of pass-catchers that is
not very exciting after Travis
Kelce. All Hardman has to do is earn snaps as one of the team’s
top 3 receivers and he should see his share of big fantasy days
potentially as soon as Week 1. While consistency and bust potential
will surely be Hardman’s biggest risk, his upside is drool-worthy
making him a solid option towards the end of round 1.
I don’t totally get the love for Brown but it is impossible to
ignore him past this point in the first round, as he was the first
receiver taken in the NFL draft and he certainly has the playmaking
ability to be a fantasy factor at the next level. As for Brown’s
landing spot, the risk is obvious, as Lamar Jackson is shaky at
best as a passer and the team seems determined to be a run-first
offense. Add this to the fact that Brown is crazy small (5-9,
166) for just about any NFL position and you could certainly see
him turning out poorly as a fantasy asset. On the bright side,
Brown possesses elite playmaking ability, speed, burst, route-running…
basically everything (except size) that you could ask for in a
receiver. If Jackson can take a step forward as a passer, Brown
should be the biggest beneficiary, for a team very shallow at
the position. Even if Brown does not get the volume, he (like
Hardman) only needs a few targets per game to make a fantasy impact.
If you like to gamble, this seems like the right spot in the first
round to go all in on one of the leagues’ most exciting players.
Campbell is another fast riser due to his landing spot where he
will be catching passes from Andrew
Luck for the next few seasons. Evaluators seem split on Campbell
who had just one dominant season in college and recorded an extremely
low average depth of target (4.5). On the other hand, Campbell
is a near elite athlete at the position with adequate size and
excellent explosion. In Indy, he will face competition from T.Y.
Hilton, Devin
Funchess, Eric
Ebron, Jack
Doyle, and both Marlon
Mack and Nyheim
Hines out of the backfield. Could Campbell be as good or better
than all these other guys? Absolutely. Could he be just a gadget
player or occasional big play threat? Also yes. I wouldn’t reach
for Campbell much earlier than this in rookie drafts but for teams
that can afford to be patient, Campbell could pay off in a big
way once some of his competition clears out, probably in 2020.
The Dropouts
A.J. Brown,
WR, Tennessee (1.02) - Awful landing spot but could sneak into
late 1st. Hakeem Butler,
WR, Arizona (1.03) - Poor draft capital and heavy competition. Kelvin Harmon,
WR, Washington (1.10) - Terrible draft capital.
