Rumors of Peyton Manning’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.
The future first ballot Hall of Famer took a big step back in
2014, throwing for 750 fewer yards and 16 fewer touchdowns with
five more interceptions than he threw in 2013. Sounds terribly
disappointing on the surface, doesn’t it? Well, despite
the drop-off, Manning still finished as the No. 4 quarterback
in fantasy football with 39 touchdowns and over 4,700 yards through
the air. If you knew you were getting those numbers again in 2015,
it’d be almost impossible to turn down Manning as a first
round fantasy football selection. But Manning, despite his incredible
consistency, does not have the sexy name value anymore like that
of Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. He may not even be as exciting
as Russell Wilson now that the Seattle QB has Jimmy Graham to
throw to. But one thing’s for certain – Peyton Manning
is still Peyton Manning. And when it comes to elite fantasy football
production, literally no one in the history of the league has
done it better than No. 18.
In fairness, the 39 year-old saw significant regression in the
second half of 2014 as he had a couple of very disappointing games
where he threw for fewer than 200 yards and he even failed to
throw a touchdown in two games, which is an extreme rarity for
the veteran signal caller. Still, if you take Manning’s second
half of 2014 and project it over the course of a full season,
you would have a quarterback who threw for more than 4,300 yards
and 30 touchdowns. That would put him 8th among quarterbacks in
yardage and tied with his brother Eli at ninth place in touchdowns.
Not too shabby for a guy who was noticeably injured. One of the
biggest concerns for Manning is the loss of tight end Julius Thomas.
The Broncos seem to be excited about the development of second-year
receiver Cody Latimer who should see much more playing time this
season and Emmanuel Sanders will most likely play out of the slot
on three-wide sets, where he was extremely effective this past
season. The loss of Thomas could be a major factor, however, as
Thomas was among the most dynamic playmakers at the position over
the past two seasons. Veteran pass catcher Owen Daniels is expected
to take Thomas’ spot at tight end and he should be able to provide
some value, but he is an obvious downgrade in terms playmaking
ability.
Still, Manning is among the elite at quarterback. With so many
questions surrounding other top quarterbacks after the “big
two,” Manning provides an extremely high floor with a high
ceiling to go along with it. Sure, he’s not going to be
the dynamic runner that many other top quarterbacks are, but he
should put up high-end passing numbers with the best of them.
Because of that, he is a lock to go in the top five at the position
in almost every draft.
One of the hottest names in fantasy football this offseason has
been Denver running back C.J. Anderson. Anderson burst onto the
scene in the second half of the 2014 when he compiled 1,091 total
yards and 10 touchdowns over the final eight games of the regular
season. Anderson got starting the job after injuries to both Montee
Ball and Ronnie Hillman. Now being referred to as the “1A” running
back in Denver by the media, Anderson figures to get the bulk
of the carries in what figures to be a run-heavy offense under
new head coach Gary Kubiak. Kubiak’s system has been kind to running
backs in the past putting names like Arian Foster and Justin Forsett
onto the fantasy radar despite both players being forgotten in
the NFL Draft. Patient runners who can make the right cut at the
right time and are willing to participate in the passing game
both as a pass catcher and as a blocker is what works in Kubiak’s
system. Anderson provides all of those qualities and despite going
undrafted in 2013, he did shine in the only real opportunity he
has been given.
The real question is centered on how much the combination of
Ball and Hillman will be involved in the offense. While they are
competing for the “1B” job, both players figure to
factor in somehow and given their injury histories, there is a
good chance that we will see each of them occupy the “1B”
role to some point this season. Anderson figures to be the RB
to own, however, as Kubiak has been more than willing to utilize
one “bellcow” running back in the past while giving
scraps to the other players in the offense when necessary. Anderson
should be considered a low-end first round draft pick with the
potential of developing into a top five back if he stays healthy
all season.
Drafted to be “the guy” in 2013, second-round pick
Montee Ball has yet to show up as the elite fantasy running back
that many hoped he would develop into. Through two NFL seasons,
he has rushed for a total of just 731 yards and five touchdowns.
His 2014 season was cut short by an injury, but with 3.1 yards
per carry up to that point, it’s hard to really be excited
about what he would have done if he would have stayed healthy.
Ball now heads into the 2015 season with a chip on his shoulder,
hoping to regain his status as the team’s top running back.
With Anderson anointed as the starter going into the season, Ball
currently finds himself competing with Ronnie Hillman to be the
primary backup to Anderson. Hillman hasn’t been particularly
impressive thus far in his career either, so it’s not surprising
to see most reports indicating that Ball has the upper edge going
into the preseason, but this is one of the more interesting battles
to watch heading into the year. Whoever wins the job should be
considered one of the elite handcuffs in all of fantasy football.
Ball was a first or second round fantasy draft pick in most drafts
this past season, which could leave a sour taste in many fantasy
owners’ minds heading into 2015. His disappointing production
was short-lived as he lasted only four games, but the headache
of dealing with an emergency appendectomy and then a groin injury
has to be weighing heavily on the minds of those who selected
him a season ago. Because of that, Ball could slip further than
he otherwise would even if he does win the RB2 job in Denver.
He won’t likely provide much value unless Anderson goes
down, but being the handcuff in a Kubiak offense has worked out
very well for players like Ben Tate in the past, who have put
up monster numbers when given the opportunity.
Unlike the disappointment that fantasy owners got in Montee Ball,
those who picked up Ronnie Hillman following Ball’s injury
in Week 4 were pleasantly surprised by the production they got
out of the former third round NFL Draft pick. From Weeks 5 through
9, Hillman provided high-level fantasy production with 363 rushing
yards and three touchdowns along with 17 receptions for 76 receiving
yards and another touchdown. That’s an average of 15.8 fantasy
points per game in PPR formats, good enough to make him an RB1
over that span.
But Hillman’s breakout season was cut short when he suffered
a foot injury in Week 10 that kept him out of action until Week
17, but Anderson had run away with the starting job by that point
and Anderson was only brought in to close out what was a blowout
win over the Raiders. He took just two carries in the playoff
loss to the Colts, which is more in line with what he will likely
get to start the 2015 season unless something happens to Anderson.
Those looking for a lottery ticket late in drafts could look to
Hillman who could end up beating out Ball for the 1B job in Denver,
but he is considered the RB3 by most analysts as we head into
the preseason.
Another potential lottery pick in this crowded backfield, fullback/halfback
Juwan Thompson actually led the Broncos with a 5.0 yards per carry
average on 54 carries in 2014. It’s not uncommon to see
players with 50-or-so carries have a high average in the NFL,
but Thompson is the best built player on the depth chart to handle
short yardage work and he could end up getting some goal line
touches, especially if other players go down with injuries as
they have in the past. Don’t get too excited about Thompson
in your draft, but keep an eye on the backfield situation throughout
the year as Thompson could develop into a valuable asset, particularly
in touchdown-heavy formats, depending on what happens in front
of him on the depth chart.
2014 was the third in what has been a string of monster fantasy
seasons for Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. Thomas finished
second in the league with a whopping 1,619 yards and 111 receptions.
He also added 11 touchdowns, making him the No. 4 wide receiver
in standard scoring league and No. 2 in PPR leagues. Wide receiver
can often be a position that fluctuates from week to week, but
Thomas is a rare gem who provides consistency while still providing
elite level numbers. From Week 4 through Week 17, Thomas went
over 100 yards in all but three contests. In those three remaining
contests, he still scored a combined four touchdowns, which made
him a double-digit fantasy producer every week except one, even
in standard scoring formats. That kind of stat-line is something
you won’t find in too many places and it’s why Thomas
is a consensus top three wide receiver heading into the 2015 season.
As great as Thomas has been, there is still concern that the
Broncos might be leaning more on the running game in 2015 than
they have in recent seasons. While that could be a cause for concern,
the reality is that it might affect every other player in this
offense other than Thomas. Kubiak’s scheme is definitely
more run-heavy than others that the Manning-Thomas combo have
been a part of, but an often overlooked aspect of Kubiak offenses
is that they tend to rely heavily on the “X” wide
receiver. Graham Barfield of Rotoworld broke down the numbers
and explained that the X receiver in Kubiak’s offense has
averaged six receptions for 82.4 yards per game. That projects
out to a 96 catch, 1,318 yard season for Thomas...and all of that
comes from offenses with substantially less talent at the quarterback
position. Thomas is one of the safest picks in all of fantasy
football and will be drafted as such at the back end of the first
round. If you’re looking for elite production and security
with your first round pick, look no further than the Broncos’
top receiver.
A lot was made of the Broncos’ decision to add Emmanuel
Sanders to the offense in place of Eric Decker prior to the 2014
season. Sanders, a smaller, speedier receiver didn’t exactly
fit the mold of Decker who is a big, physical receiver that was
coming off of back-to-back double digit touchdown seasons in Denver.
But while Sanders was used sparingly in Pittsburgh, Peyton Manning
and the Broncos saw much more in his game. Sanders took advantage
of the opportunity afforded to him when Wes Welker missed the
first four games of the season due to a suspension. Sanders made
a whopping 32 receptions for 435 yards during those games, proving
that he could not only catch the ball down the field, but could
also work underneath both on the outside and in the slot. Sanders
would never relinquish his starting job and ended the season as
the No. 7 receiver in all of fantasy football as he made 101 receptions
for 1,404 yards and nine touchdowns.
Now with Welker and tight end Julius Thomas gone, Sanders figures
to be an even more important part of the Denver offense this coming
season. While the running game will almost certainly play a bigger
role, Manning is not suddenly going to become a “game manager.”
He’s one of the best of all time and the Broncos would be
out of their minds to not give him the opportunity to carve up
defenses in 2015. Manning-led offenses are almost always going
to be very friendly to its receivers and Sanders stands to have
another big year if everything goes as planned. A repeat of his
2014 numbers might be a bit of a stretch, but Sanders should still
provide plenty of consistency while mixing in some big games here
and there. Don’t be surprised to see him contending again
among the top 10 at the position by the end of the season.
Like Sanders a season ago, Cody Latimer is a player getting a
lot of attention from fantasy owners at training camp and that
will likely continue through the preseason. The second-year wideout
is in line to be the team’s WR3 heading into the season.
Being the WR3 typically indicates that a player will be primarily
running routes out of the slot, but that might not be the case
for Latimer whose 6’2”, 215 lb frame projects better
as an outside target. Most experts predict that it will be Thomas
and Sanders who are on the field for two-wide sets while Sanders
will move to the inside leaving space for Latimer on the outside
in three-wide sets this season.
With Julius Thomas now in Jacksonville, the Broncos will need
a new player to emerge to complement their two stud wide receivers
and give defenses something to think about. Being the third option
in an offense typically doesn’t mean much but the third
option in Denver has been a huge fantasy producer ever since Manning
came to town and that doesn’t figure to change much in 2015.
Latimer is a late-round flier who has a high ceiling in what figures
to be another high-scoring Denver offense. The biggest question
is if he is the man for the job. Latimer caught just two passes
as a rookie and was buried on the depth chart. He’ll need
to make big strides forward to be a real fantasy option in 2015,
but the opportunity will be there if he can take it.
TE Owen
Daniels (2014 TE Rank – No. 18, 5.1
FPts/G)
The offseason has brought about many changes for the Broncos
offense, but perhaps none greater than the loss of tight end Julius
Thomas. Thomas, had become one of the elite fantasy players at
his position over the past two seasons, scoring 24 touchdowns
over that span, left for Jacksonville in free agency. This left
a huge hole on the depth chart which is otherwise filled with
players who have minimal on-field experience.
But if experience is what coach Kubiak was looking for, it would
be hard to find a player who fit that bill more than Daniels.
Daniels, now 32 years old, will be entering his 10th NFL season
after following Kubiak from Houston to Baltimore and now onto
Denver. Daniels has played his entire NFL career with Kubiak as
his head coach and despite never truly breaking out as a high-end
option, he has been among the more consistent players at the position
over that time. Some may worry about Daniels’ age, but the
reality is that Daniels could be heading into his best fantasy
situation yet. This past season, a 31-year-old, Daniels caught
48 passes for 527 yards and four touchdowns. That came despite
him playing behind Dennis Pitta for the first three weeks of the
season and sitting out Week 8. Now without much competition at
the position and in a much pass-happier offense with Manning behind
center, there’s a real chance that Daniels has the best
fantasy season of his career. Even if the rumors of Virgil Green
getting more playing time as a pass-catching tight end this season
are true, Daniels figures to be the top tight end in what could
again be one of the league’s highest-scoring offenses. Daniels
is a sneaky pick to approach double-digit touchdowns and one would
have to assume that his 48 receptions for 529 yards from 2014
are closer to his floor than his ceiling for 2015.
