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Colby Cavaliere | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


2015 Player Outlooks: Baltimore Ravens
7/29/15

 

Justin Forsett

Justin Forsett should have increased PPR value under new offensive coordinator Marc Trestman.


QB Joe Flacco
(2014 QB Rank – No.14, 20.4 FPts/G)

I noted in my 2014 player outlooks that Joe Flacco was a much more efficient passer when asked to throw the ball less. This held true in 2014, as Flacco’s pass attempts dropped from a career high 614 in 2013 to a more manageable 555 last season. Despite those 59 fewer attempts, Flacco threw for just as many yards, 8 more touchdowns, 10 less interceptions, and completed 3% more of his passes. In Gary Kubiak’s stretch-based, intermediate passing game scheme, Flacco was as efficient as ever despite a questionable set of pass catchers. Although he finished as the 14th overall quarterback, he fell into that 8-14 slot that was interchangeable, giving Flacco fringe QB1 value. With significant changes in offensive scheme, and personnel, what is in store for Flacco in 2015?

The biggest change comes in the switch from Kubiak’s run-to-pass scheme to Marc Trestman’s pass-to-run scheme, but this doesn’t automatically mean Flacco’s pass attempts are going to skyrocket. Veteran lid lifter Torrey Smith departed for San Francisco and Dennis Pitta remains an unknown. Replacing these two stalwarts are a pair of rookies. One a raw, but gifted receiver from Central Florida in Breshad Perriman, and the other a mammoth 2nd round pick from Minnesota in Maxx Williams. These two will join the grizzled pair of Steve Smith and Justin Forsett to form the core of Flacco’s passing game options. Look for Baltimore to employ a conservative, but complex passing game approach that utilizes dump-offs and crossing patterns, mixed with well-timed deep balls to Perriman. Flacco’s passing numbers should remain in the same ballpark as 2014, with continued efficiency due to Trestman’s tutelage. Flacco’s fantasy prospects remain much like they have during his entire career. A fringe QB1 that’s best suited as a high end QB2 in standard leagues, but makes for a sneaky value pick in daily or large leagues.

RB Justin Forsett
(2014 RB Rank – No.8 12.6 FPts/G)

I didn’t even have Forsett in my 2014 player outlooks, and I don’t feel bad about it at all! If I had known Forsett would somehow emerge from a career’s worth of obscurity to finish as the No.8 overall fantasy running back, I’d still be counting my fantasy league winnings. Forsett was the benefactor of the Ray Rice fiasco, the Bernard Pierce implosion, and ideal scheme fit of Gary Kubiak. He shattered every career high with his 235-1266-8 line, adding 44 catches for 263 yards. He was magnificently efficient, posting a silly 5.4 –ypc average. Amazingly, Forsett and Demarco Murray were the only two running backs in the league who posted a double digit (17) total of rushes of 20-plus yards. A whopping 16 percent of Forsett’s total rushing attempts went for 10+ yards which meant he had a monster weekly floor, even without a heavy volume of carries. Every week I waited for the shine to dull, but Forsett got better as the year went on, posting five of his six 100-yard games from Week 10 onward. Clearly Forsett was that rare out-of-nowhere gem last season, but what happens now that he’s more of a known commodity and an offensive centerpiece?

While the Ravens say they are going to leave most of the zone blocking schemes in place from the previous offense that made Forsett so effective, the loss of Kubiak will have a profound effect. Expect Forsett’s ground totals to take a hit, but a boost in receptions is nearly a given. Trestman’s usage of running backs as receiving threats out of the backfield is well documented, and this meshes up well with Forsett’s strengths as a pass catcher. Forsett should threaten 70 receptions, easily besting his career high of 44 last year. His total touches, yardage and touchdowns should remain steady, but I do have concerns about how he will respond physical to the nearly 300 touches he received last year. He had never been close to even 200 touches in any single season in his career, and looked out of gas at times with a lingering ankle injury in Weeks 15, 16, and in the Wild Card game against the Steelers. Don’t ignore the potential impact of bruising second-year runner Lorenzo Taliaferro either. He’s sure to steal more than a handful of carries from the returning vet, especially near the goal line. I have doubts he can repeat his RB1 performance from a year ago, and would be much more comfortable with Forsett as a strong RB2 that provides a consistently high floor.

RB Lorenzo Taliaferro
(2014 RB Rank – No.53 6.5 FPts/G)

Should the soon-to-be 30 year old Justin Forsett go down for a stretch, look for the duo of Taliaferro and Allen to be two-man clean-up crew. Taliaferro, the 2014 4th rounder from Coastal Carolina posted a solid 68-292-4 line in only ten games for the Ravens last year. He played significant snaps in Week 3 and 4 when the Ravens backfield was going through a transition phase, but a mix of ball security issues, and the dynamite play of the veteran Forsett, meant that Taliaferro was relegated to short yardage or mop up duty. With Bernard Pierce and Ray Rice no longer on the roster, Taliaferro has a much more direct line to snaps in 2015. Despite an uptick in snaps, Taliaferro only holds value as a handcuff to Forsett, and even in that role has a low ceiling due the lack of passing game chops, and the presence of 4th round rookie Buck Allen. Allen’s short area quickness, speed, and size make him a near physical clone of Bernard Pierce, who enjoyed occasional success during his rookie year. Look for Allen to compliment Taliaferro as a passing game specialist in the event of a Forsett injury. I like Allen as a superior upside candidate should Forsett suffer a long term injury, and would be my preferred handcuff to Forsett.

WR Steve Smith
(2014 WR Rank – No.20, 8.9 FPts/G)

More than any team in recent memory, Baltimore benefited from two spectacular career resurgent seasons from two players that were virtual cast-offs. Justin Forsett and Steve Smith were the offense for the Ravens for the better part of the season, and the main reason why their team made another playoff appearance. Tossed aside by the franchise he called home for 13 seasons, Smith departed Carolina and was supposed to be a complementary veteran presence for a Ravens team hungry to replace the leadership they lost when Anquan Boldin left for San Francisco. Smith met his leadership obligations, but surpassed any and all production expectations with his 79-1056-6 season. Smith spent the first six games of the season, cruising along as a WR1 before hitting the skids over the second half of the year. Smith’s drop in production could be attributed to a combination of age, Torrey Smith finding his game, and increased defensive respect. Whatever the causes, Smith’s production dropped sharply after a hot start, as he tallied only one 100-yard game and three touchdowns over the final 12 games. Unfortunately for Smith, his bark remains stronger than his bite, and although he can never be counted out, the changes on the Baltimore offense don’t necessarily point to fantasy stardom. Replacing Torrey Smith is rookie Breshad Perriman. The 1st rounder, while a great fit and high upside talent, simply isn’t ready to be the lead dog of this passing game just yet. That task, at least until Perriman develops, will fall to Smith. Look for a drop in production, as more passes go through the backfield, and defenses double Smith. There is enough volume in the Trestman scheme to keep Smith as a relevant fantasy asset, but I’d be shocked with anything more than a WR3 finish.

WR Breshad Perriman
(2014 WR Rank - N/A)

The biggest knock on Torrey Smith, and probably the main reason Baltimore allowed him to leave in free agency was the fact he never became much more than a deep threat. The Ravens hope that Perriman, the 1st rounder from Central Florida can develop into what Torrey Smith couldn’t, an all-around threat capable of winning all over the field. The son of former NFLer Brett Perriman, Breshad finds himself in a fantastic position to make fantasy waves in his rookie season. Possessing a rare speed-size combination, Perriman has all the physical tools to be an elite receiver at the pro level. The pieces around him, from Coach Trestman’s offense, to the tutelage of Smith and the arm of Flacco, mean Perriman is going to be in a place to make an impact. If he develops quickly, quiets the skeptics who are concerned about his focus, and proves to be more than a one-trick pony, Perriman’s reception floor should be 50, with room for more. His size and speed make him a scoring threat from anywhere on the field, meaning touchdowns will add to his potential scoring yield. All things considering, I like Perriman to make a bigger fantasy impact in year one than some of his higher drafted peers. Start Perriman off as a WR3 with upside, who could be putting up WR2 production down the stretch of the season.

TE Maxx Williams

(2014 TE Rank – N/A)

Just several years ago, Ravens’ tight ends made up a valuable market share of the fantasy tight end position. But after a second hip fracture for Pitta and the drafting of Williams in the 2015 draft, fantasy owners may be forced to look elsewhere for tight end production in 2015. Anything the Ravens get from Pitta would be a miracle, but as long as he’s on the roster, you have to remember his name. The player I’m intrigued by is Williams, the gifted athlete from Minnesota whom the Ravens traded up in the 2nd round to draft. Williams, the consensus No.1 tight end in the draft, enters the NFL with the physical tools to be a factor. Rookie tight ends rarely make much of a fantasy splash, even if they play important roles for their teams. Look for Williams to be a part of specific packages at first, severely limiting his fantasy potential. Watch his development in the preseason and early season closely, as there is a definite need on the Ravens offense for playmakers in the passing game, and Williams could make a sneaky value play mid-way through the year. As it stands, Williams is at best a shot in the dark TE2, but better left on the waiver wire to be monitored.