It took a few years, but it looks the annual carousel of quarterbacks
in Minnesota may have finally landed on a winner! While Teddy Bridgewater
looks to be the right captain for the Vikings, is he ready to lead
the raids that pillage your fantasy opponents? Although it worked
out well, Bridgewater didn’t exactly fly out of the gate after
his first start in Week 3. It wasn’t until his fourth start
that he finally threw his first touchdown. But it’s not the
start of a rookie quarterback’s first season that should be
evaluated, but the finish. After a rocky first seven games (3 touchdowns,
5 interceptions, 188 yards/game), Bridgewater seemed to get the
hang of things after a heartbreaking 3-point loss to the Packers
in Week 12. Counting that game, Bridgewater showed definite improvement
during the final six , as he amassed a 10-6 touchdown-to-interception
ratio, and averaged 240 yards/game. Over the final five games of
the season, Bridgewater also completed over 70% of his passes. Bridgewater
not only developed as a passer and playmaker, but he kept his team
competitive in games, as five of his seven losses as a starter were
by six points or less. So what does the real life development do
for his fantasy prospects? It’s just one of several check
marks in the upside column.
Joining Bridgewater in the backfield this year is none other than
generational running back Adrian Peterson. With the drama of last
season in the rear view mirror, Peterson can and will dominate defensive
attention, giving Bridgewater a slew of softer coverages to throw
against. Running around in that newly created real estate will be
a host of potential pass catching options. Veteran Mike Wallace
adds a lid busting element to the younger, but supremely talented
trio of Charles Johnson, Jarius Wright and Cordarrelle Patterson.
If he can stay healthy (IF!), tight end Kyle Rudolph should be able
to clean up around the line of scrimmage on curl and in routes,
and in the red zone. If you weren’t convinced that Bridgewater offers
fantasy QB2 upside, just look at the storied history offensive coordinator
Norv Turner has with developing passing offenses. Baring a hiccup
in Miami, all of Turners teams have demonstrated a significant statistical
upgrade during his tenure calling the offense. Not impressed? He’s
made these gains with the likes of Heath Shuler, journeyman Doug
Flutie, and a very raw Alex Smith as some of his signal callers.
Bridgewater has the talent and development edge on those guys, and
should end up being a very sneaky QB2 with QB1 upside you can draft
late to pair with a stud.
I hope you bought a few cold ones for the fantasy owner who drafted
Adrian Peterson in your league last year, they deserved it. After
just 21 carries, his 2014 season was over, and the immediate future
of the one of the league’s best players was in serious doubt.
Flash forward to the early summer of 2015, and Peterson is rested,
refreshed, and ready to be unleased upon the NFL once again. Uh
oh!
Not surprisingly Peterson’s stats fell off in 2013 after his
monster 2000-yard campaign in 2012. Although they were slightly
off by his standards, a 1200+ yard, 10-touchdown running back is
going to be a RB1 in fantasy football, no matter the format. Even
after turning 30 this offseason, Peterson’s year away from
the game has made him fresher and hungrier than ever. In Norv Turner’s
offensive system, Peterson is going to be the focal point of the
run game, and could be primed to best his career high single season
reception total (43). For reference, Emmitt Smith in his prime had
four seasons of 50+ receptions. This Vikings team is loaded on offense,
should boast an aggressive young defense, and has talent to challenge
for the division title. There is no reason to think that Peterson
won’t return to his dominant form, and is a strong consideration
at the No.1 overall pick.
McKinnon, the raw rookie from Georgia Southern was one of the 2014
draft selections made based largely on the newest measurable trend
in the NFL, Speed, Power, Agility, Reaction, Quickness (SPARQ) score.
Apparently McKinnon’s SPARQ score was off the charts, and
the Vikings hoped to sprinkle him in as a complement to workhorse
Peterson. Unfortunately Peterson was lost after Week 1, and McKinnon
was forced into a more prominent role earlier than initially planned.
The rookie learned on the job, eventually busting out in a big way
in Week 4, when he went off for 18 carries for 135 yards. There
must be something to the SPARQ, as McKinnon flashed game breaking
ability multiple times over the middle part of the season before
an injury ended his year after week 12. At 5’9, 209, I’m
not sure if the Vikings view him as the heir to Sir Peterson, or
a lightning strike off the bench that won’t have much touchdown
scoring potential (zero scores in 12 games last year). If Peterson
can stay healthy the Vikings are going to ride him, meaning McKinnon
won’t nearly approach the 113 carries he logged last year.
Draft him as a Peterson handcuff, or a lottery ticket in leagues
with 12+ teams.
Matt Asiata returns to the Vikings on a one-year deal in 2015, and
once again finds himself with an uphill climb to fantasy relevance.
What he lacks in athletic ability, Asiata makes up for in preparation
and determination. He was an absolute beast in the red zone last
season filling in for Peterson, as he turned 30 of his carries into
9 touchdowns. The problem for fantasy owners relying on Asiata,
was his touchdown dependent nature. Sandwiched around two monster
three-touchdown games, Asiata had 9 games under 8 fantasy points.
His lack of playmaking ability outside the 20’s was his downfall,
and the Vikings know he isn’t a long term answer at the position.
What he is a mediocre insurance policy for Peterson and McKinnon,
and not someone that should be targeted for fantasy value unless
there is a code red emergency.
Tossed aside by the receiver needy Browns just prior to the start
of the regular season, Johnson was scooped up by the Vikings and
made minimal contributions over the first nine weeks of the season.
But after a 6-catch, 87-yard day against the Bears in Week 11, the
Vikings inserted Johnson into the starting “X” receiver
role and watched him flourish. Over the final six weeks of the season,
Johnson would tally a 19-328-2 line on nearly 7 targets a game.
With a clearly defined role in a friendly position and scheme, Johnson
is poised to take quite a leap in 2015. No, that isn’t a line
I recycled from Cordarrelle Patterson’s outlook from last
year, as Johnson has the technical skills that Turner looks for
in his No.1 receiver. Johnson also possesses serious athletic ability
to go with a 6’2’’, 210 pound frame. As the main
target in the passing game, look for Johnson to easily double his
catch total from last year (31) and approach 1,000 yards to go along
with 5+ touchdowns. With little name recognition and a young quarterback
at the helm, you might be able to steal Johnson as a WR3/4 and get
potential WR2 production out of him when all is said and done.
Turn to the third page of the FFToday 2014 wide receiver rankings
and about half way down, sitting it at No.76 you’ll see a
name of a player that nearly has as many consonants in his name
as he did catches last season (13-33 if you’re keeping score!).
Patterson, who was drafted in many leagues as a high-upside WR2
was one of the biggest non-injury/suspension busts of the 2014 season.
His lack of route running technique landed him quickly in Norv Turner’s
doghouse, and nearly invisible in the weekly box score. Patterson’s
33-384-1 line were significant downgrades from his 2013 rookie season.
He was outplayed and leapfrogged on the depth chart by an early
season free agent addition (Charles Johnson). 2015 is a make or
break season for Patterson. Just a year ago he was oozing with upside,
and on track to possibly join an elite tier of playmaking receivers.
Counting on production from players fighting for scraps is never
a good fantasy decision, so don’t be afraid to avoid Patterson
entirely, at least until the target distribution plays out in the
preseason and early season.
WR Mike
Wallace (2014 WR Rank – No.18, 9.2 FPts/G)
Out goes veteran pass catcher Greg Jennings, and in comes veteran
pass catcher Mike Wallace. The Vikings dealt a draft pick to the
Dolphins to obtain Wallace to play the Z (Alvin Harper role) to
Charles Johnsons’ X (Michael Irvin role) in Norv Turner’s vertical
passing game. Wallace was misused in his short stint in Miami, often
being asked to run short quick hitting slant and bubble screen routes.
On the occasions he was sent deep, his track star speed was wasted
on underthrows and off target passes. In Minnesota, Turner will
turn Wallace loose early and often, taking advantage of off-safety
double teams. With Bridgewater proving an improvement as a deep
ball passer (46% completion percentage on passes over 20 yards vs
36% from Ryan Tannehill), Wallace should be in for a few monster
games. But it’s the games you spend waiting for the homeruns that
will drive Wallace owners crazy. His targets and red zone looks
should plummet with more viable weapons around him. Wallace will
have a valuable strategic role on the Vikings, but it just won’t
do much for your fantasy success. Draft Wallace as nothing more
than an inconsistent WR3.
TE Kyle
Rudolph (2014 TE Rank – No.38, 5.0 FPts/G)
In Kyle Rudolph’s last 15 games, he’s compiled a 54-533-5
line, which would be right on the borderline of TE1 production.
The problem is those 15 games have come over the last two seasons
combined! Unable to stay healthy since his strong 2012 season, Rudolph
has missed large chunks of the past two seasons with various foot,
leg, and abdomen injuries. He has the size and skill to be a dominant
red zone threat, but simply can’t stay on the field long enough
to make an impact. Having a healthy offseason to work with his young
developing quarterback would certainly be a good start, but Rudolph
is going to have to play week-to-week to be a true fantasy asset.
The fantasy tight end position is one in flux beyond the studs,
so if you choose wait till the later rounds, or just stream week
to week, Rudolph makes for a good low investment, high return target.
