I don’t think there is any doubt that Cutler has improved his quality
of play at the quarterback position over the last two years, but
will the fallout of having his third offensive coordinator in three
seasons leave him in a dire fantasy position?
Under Marc Tressman in 2014 Cutler threw for a career high 28 touchdowns,
but those also came along with 18 interceptions, many of them being
the ugly variety. With Tressman getting the boot, new head boss
John Fox brought in Adam Gase to reign in Cutler and remake the
offense into a more balanced, run influenced approach. Gase did
what many thought was impossible, getting Cutler to play within
the framework of the game plan, and less on sandlot football. The
result was fantastic for the team, as Chicago went from turning
the ball over the sixth-most times (29) in the league in 2014 to
turning it over the 18th-most (21). Cutler led the offense to a
respectable 18th overall finish, and this was without dynamic rookie
Kevin White, who missed the season with a leg injury, and Pro Bowl
receiver Alshon Jeffery who missed seven games. Despite all the
missing pieces, Cutler didn’t force throws, and had only one multi-interception
game, the Week 17 loss to the Lions.
Even with Adam Gase moving on to be the head coach for the Dolphins,
Cutler will enjoy some continuity as his former QB coach Dowell
Loggains slides into the coordinator role. This is a huge positive
for Cutler, as is the healthy return of Jeffery, White and slot
man Eddie Royal. I feel like Cutler is being overlooked, and can
envision a 25-28 touchdown season, and a push for 4,000 yards. If
he can continue to keep the turnovers in check, and most importantly
stay healthy, Cutler could have sneaky low end QB1 value, or at
the very least be a solid QB2 that you wouldn’t feel bad about
starting a few games. He could be worth a look for Brady owners,
as Cutler faces the Texans, Eagles, Cowboys and Lions to start the
year.
HC John Fox is knows for an RBBC approach.
Does that spell doom for Jeremy Langford's fantasy value?
Langford was a solid dual threat for the Bears after starter Matt
Forte went down in Week 8. The injury to Forte opened the door for
Langford to grab a significant share of the backfield workload,
highlighted by a 4 game stretch (Weeks 9-12) that saw Langford average
nearly 18 standard fantasy points per game. The hot streak came
to a vicious end when Forte returned, as the two basically canceled
each other out. Even though Forte has moved on to the Jets, head
coach John Fox’s philosophy remains. A disciple of the dreaded
RBBC approach, Fox has aggravated fantasy owners for nearly a decade.
Infamous for his usage of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart
in Carolina, Fox believes strongly in splitting the work of his
backs, and Chicago has a stable of the them. He’s already
on record this off-season talking about the “hot-hand”
approach. If all of these clichés haven’t scared you
away from Langford enough, let’s talk about another one. The
always frightening “put on extra weight to handle a bigger
workload”. This never quite works out the way running backs
intend. The extra weight limits quickness and as a player who already
struggles for make defenders miss, Langford can’t afford to
lose his limited explosion. Langford is a fine player, but besides
for that four-game stretch, he struggled to make an impact, running
for an average of only 3.6 yards per carry during weeks 11-17. In
the current shared time situation, I can’t see Langford as
anything more than a low end RB2, with potential for more if a rash
of injuries hit his backfield mates.
Let’s assume Langford handles 55% of the running back snaps in 2016.
That leaves another 45% or so of carries to the trio of Ka’Deem
Carey, Jacquizz
Rodgers, and rookie Jordan Howard. Last year the top four backs
for Chicago carried the ball a combined 423 times. If we assume
Langford handles around 220, that leaves quite a few carries for
the rest of the ball carriers. Rodgers is basically the odd man
out here, as his bottom of the roster talent and usage from 2015
leave much to be desired. Carey, the third-year player from Arizona
has been no more than a change-of-pace back without a solid role
the past two seasons. He didn’t see a significant uptick in touches
between his rookie and second year.
This leaves us with Howard, the power back from Indiana selected
in the 5th round. Possessing an intriguing size, speed combination,
Howard was highly regarded during the pre-draft process, earning
a second-third round grade. The Bears were able to nab him in Round
5, great value for a player who produced exceptional numbers in
a Big 10 conference that featured some tremendous defenses. Howard
gives Chicago, and John Fox the powerful, if not flashy back they
lacked at times last season. Early reports indicate Howard will
have the best chance to be the 1B to Langford. If he can prove his
chops in the passing game, something Langford struggled with at
times in 2015, Howard could certainly be a player to watch. This
offense was able to support two top-25 running backs last year,
so nab Howard for your roster as a value pick.
They say the most important ability is availability, and unfortunately
for fantasy owners, Jeffery wasn’t available much in 2015.
After back-to-back monster WR1 seasons in 2013 and 2014, Jeffery
simply couldn’t get on the field to give enough return on
investment. A calf injury cost him five games early in the year,
and more soft tissue injuries to his lower body cost him a few games
down the stretch. All told, Jeffery only suited up nine times last
year, but when he was on the field, he dazzled as expected. In six
of the nine games he topped 10 targets, and racked up 85-plus yards
and/or a score in seven of nine. His fantasy and on-field impact
can’t be disputed, but the Bears failed to come to a long
term deal with Jeffery, causing him to play out the 2016 season
on the franchise tag. The 27 year-old possesses elite ball skills,
speed, and Beckham like hands, and is a WR1 whenever he takes the
field. His 11.6 points per game was 14th amongst receivers last
year, and he should only benefit from the return of Kevin White.
Jeffery is the classic boom/bust pick, but his recent production
should outweigh any injury concerns. Heck, he played two full seasons
prior to last year, and he’s playing for a monster contract
so motivation won’t be an issue. He’s currently being
selected as the 10th receiver off the board in early drafts, but
possesses more upside than many of the players being selected before
or around him.
The odd injury saga of Kevin White was about all we had last season,
as the highly drafted rookie (7th overall) from West Virginia failed
to step foot on an NFL playing field. Under John Fox, the Bears
remained extremely tight lipped and vague when it comes to injuries,
and until he was placed on season ending IR, no one knew just how
injured he was. It turns out a fracture to a shin bone was the culprit,
but that has long since healed, and White has been trying to shake
off the rust. Off-season reports have been mixed, as some observers
have said he’s struggled with drops, while others have said
he looks dominant. My guess is White is somewhere in between, as
this is the first meaningful physical work he’s had as a pro.
Luckily he had plenty of mental reps last year, so should be familiar
with the route trees and schemes of the offense. He’ll need
to build a relationship with Cutler, and figure out how to operate
alongside Jeffery. His elite speed/size combination will make him
a factor, and while I look for Jeffery to dominate targets, White
could have some sneaky value. He was picked 7th overall for a reason,
and young receivers can, and will continue to make fantasy impacts.
He’s a fantastic “handcuff” for Jeffrey owners
(if handcuffing is your thing), and for other owners he makes for
a fine WR4 with upside.
After Martellus Bennett physically and mentally imploded last year,
Zach Miller stepped in and surprised many, putting up a few TE1
weeks as the year progressed. He set career highs across the board
with his 34-439-5 line, and showed an interesting rapport with Jay
Cutler. In a vacuum the stats don’t jump out at you until
you consider that Miller hadn’t played in the NFL since 2011!
Miller now takes over as the No.1 tight end in Chicago after the
departure of Bennett, and after Miller signed a fresh two-year $6
million deal. I don’t know that Miller offers enough athletically
to have a significant fantasy impact, and if Jeffery and White remain
healthy, I’m not sure enough passes will come his way to increase
his numbers significantly. He is best thought of as a complementary
TE2 at best.
