With good reason Cleveland went nuclear on its quarterback room
this offseason, jettisoning all-three players who made starts
last year, replacing them with the trio of Taylor, Baker Mayfield,
and Drew
Stanton. Despite being handcuffed with a conservative offense,
and absolutely no playmakers at receiver, Taylor has put up respectable
fantasy stats the last three seasons as Buffalo’s starter, finishing
as the No.18, No.19 and No.20 scoring quarterback, making him
a decent option in 2 QB leagues, or bye week fill in for standard
leagues. Obviously the biggest draws for Cleveland was Taylor’s
dual-threat game, accuracy, and veteran leadership. Taylor gives
Cleveland the luxury of taking it slow with Mayfield, as his touchdown
to interception ratio (65 total touchdowns to 16 interceptions
in three seasons as a starter) will at least keep Cleveland in
most of the games they play. Make no mistake; this team needs
to win some games.
Taylor is going to end up giving Cleveland chances to win, but
like your fantasy team, he isn’t capable of bringing them
over the top. This franchise has gotten dismal fantasy play from
its quarterbacks for literally decades, and there’s no doubt
that Taylor is an upgrade on most of them, but he also isn’t
suddenly going to become a fantasy priority. He’ll enjoy
a much better set of pass catchers than he had in Eastern New
York, but this is still a team that went 0-16 last year, and with
the 1st overall pick sitting behind him, probably won’t
play 16 games this year. If he does end up playing in most of
the games I do think he’s capable of having a really solid
year in Cleveland, but even that won’t be good for anything
other than a middling QB2 rating.
Say what you will about his on and off the field antics, but
Baker Mayfield was a heck of a productive football player. Bucking
the analytics, Cleveland made Mayfield the 1st overall pick in
the 2018 draft, but if it’s up to them, he won’t see
the field this season. Mayfield brings a fire and brimstone approach
to the game, lifting the players around him. Should he get the
chance to become the starter, he’s definitely worth a look.
His accuracy and playmaking ability in and out of the pocket would
give him tremendous upside. He’ll have a talented and experienced
core of receivers (hopefully!) to throw to, and could be another
“lightning in a bottle” addition to fantasy squads
at some point this season. We’ve seen a string of rookie
quarterbacks flash the past several years, and Mayfield has what
it takes to be another one. I do believe Cleveland that they will
wait as long as possible to showcase Mayfield, but when given
the chance should garner roster consideration, even if it comes
later in the year.
Walk into my living room on a random evening and there’s sure
to be a home improvement show on in the background. At the pace
they worked in the offseason, Cleveland’s offense could be featured
on any one of them. They’ve basically remade the personnel from
top to bottom, and Hyde, the former 49er, is one of the fancy
new additions. Hyde, the touchdown scoring dual threat, has long
been a top flight asset for fantasy teams. Staying on the field
has generally been his only problem, as he’s produced for some
bad teams when given the opportunity. He was the lone threat for
a team that started 0-10 last year, compiling 8 touchdowns and
over 1,400 total yards over the course of his first 16-game season.
Yup, entering his 6th season in the NFL, 2017 was only the 1st
he’s been healthy enough to play a full 16 games. Unfortunately
health, the 2nd round selection of Nick Chubb, and the presence
of Duke Johnson has greatly devalued Hyde for 2018, as this has
the makings of a full blown RBBC.
The Browns coaches have already talked up the dreaded “hot
hand” situation, meaning that the value of all three guys
could fluctuate on a weekly basis. If it means anything, I do
think Hyde has the best overall game of the bunch, and when things
equally shake out, should lead the backfield in touches. Chubb
figures to be the banger, and Johnson the receiver, but Hyde is
the vet, and thus is the current leader with the coaching staff.
Marrying yourself to any of these guys is probably a mistake,
but Hyde could return some serious value should health and opportunity
stay consistent. Hyde has produced for some far worse offensive
teams, and Cleveland didn’t give him a chest of cash to
ride the pine. At his current mid-round price I don’t like
the value, but should his ADP continue to fall into the summer,
I wouldn’t hesitate to snap him up him up as my RB4 and
pray he pulls away from the pack.
One of fantasy’s most underrated backs put together a fantastic
overall season on an 0-16 team. Compiling a career high 1,041
total yards and 7 touchdowns, Johnson also led the team in receptions
with 74 and yards with 693. Johnson has been the most consistent
offensive threat on this team for several seasons, but the Browns
don’t seem to view him as anything more than a plus passing down
back. The additions of Hyde and Chubb mean he’s third in line
for carries at best. Jarvis Landry, and the development of 2nd
year tight end David Njoku mean even Johnson’s short routes could
be eaten into. Cleveland certainly showed how much they value
Johnson’s versatility by signing him to a good money extension,
but their personnel decisions say otherwise. I can’t envision
a non-injury scenario where Johnson leaps both Chubb and Hyde
for carries, but he still garners plenty of value in the passing
game. The season he put together last year made him a solid RB2
in standard leagues, but it’s going to be close to impossible
to beat that in 2018. With Cleveland hopefully in more positive
game scripts, he could lose passing game work. I think he drops
down a few pegs and falls in as a low-end RB3, with RB2 upside
in PPR leagues.
Of all the 1st or 2nd round runners selected in this year’s
draft, Chubb has the hardest value to determine. An ultra-talented
battering ram type runner, Chubb offers great touchdown upside,
but his extremely limited passing game chops (13 receptions in
his final three years at Georgia) mean he’ll need a significant
injury to Carlos Hyde to see enough volume to make a real fantasy
impact. While Hyde might have the leg up in versatility, Chubb
possesses superior power, vision, and speed, and will undoubtedly
push Hyde for carries inside the redzone. I do think this coaching
regime is very interesting in leaning on the veterans to get this
season off to a positive start, so Chubb is best viewed for his
late season potential. As we know, players who float under the
radar for most of the season before getting a chance to shine
can sometimes be league winners, so don’t be afraid to take
a late round flyer on Chubb and hope he returns value sooner than
later. Remember, Carlos Hyde hasn’t been the picture of
health, and Chubb is an injury away from being a force on this
team.
It seems like every season there’s a guy (maybe it’s
you!) in your fantasy league who drafts Josh Gordon hoping this
will be the year Christmas finally comes and they’ll get
a gift. By some miracle, this actually happened last year, when
Gordon returned after a 2+ year absence to show flashes of brilliance.
Everything seemed to finally line up for the ultra-talented, baggage
laden star receiver. Coming off a five-game stretch to end the
season that saw him average 7.9 points per game and 18.6 yards-per-reception,
Gordon seemed poised to lead the new look Browns back to the promised
land. But the more things change, the more they stay the same,
as word came out that Gordon would miss the start of camp for
personal health reasons. No one knows exactly what this means,
and it seems to change on a daily basis, but it’s certainly
not good news.
The conundrum with Gordon is that he possesses league winning
talent, but you just can’t trust him enough to pick him
in the upper rounds. I sincerely hope he’s back in camp
quickly, and if his situation is figured out by the time you draft,
go ahead a feel free to invest in him as a WR2. Anything out of
the normal with Gordon is going to raise eyebrows, so I don’t
behoove anyone for being risk averse. But understand this. This
guy still has a job because he’s an elite talent, and it
would be smart to figure out a round you feel comfortable pulling
the trigger. Tyrod Taylor is an underrated deep ball thrower and
won’t do anything to hinder Gordon and before this latest
bizarre news I would have been happy to take a risk on his talent,
but this recent news is a reminder that Gordon’s ceiling
is as high as his floor is low, so proceed with caution.
Buoyed by a flood of targets during his first four years in the
league with Miami, Landry joins a Cleveland team that pays well,
but plays like garbage. He won’t see anything like the 161
looks he got last year on a team that hopes to run the ball more
as much as it throws. The plan is to play Landy more on the outside,
but let’s not kid ourselves; he has a slot receivers skillset.
WIth the decreased volume, Landry would have to repeat the career
high 9 touchdowns he scored last year to hope to even crack the
top 25. The murky Josh Gordon situation certainly could change
the outlook for Landry, and I do think he’ll easily lead
the team in receptions, but unless he runs his routes farther
than 5 yards downfield on a more consistent basis, he’ll
struggle to pile up yardage. (He actually had the 2nd most yards-after-catch
of all receivers, yet finished 15th in total receiving yards).
On the flip side, I do think his value jumps significantly should
Mayfield get the call. The rookie signal caller’s quick
release and accuracy on short to intermediate throws plays perfectly
into Landry’s game. With Gordon in the lineup, Landry is
a WR3. Should that situation change, Landry would be amazing value
with WR2 upside.
Raw as a 20 year-old rookie, Njoku spent much of the season splitting
snaps with the more trusted Seth Devalve. On the surface the 32-386-4
line doesn’t look impressive, but the fact he compiled those
numbers while splitting time, as a rookie, on an 0-16 team, means
there’s nowhere to go but up for second year tight end.
It sounds like the Browns are committing to Njoku as their primary
tight end, and that should lead to more opportunities for the
ultra-athletic former Hurricane to flash his ability. Tyrod Taylor
worked magic with Charles Clay during his years in Buffalo, and
Baker Mayfield could be an even bigger boon for his production.
The combination of talent and opportunity makes Njoku one of my
favorite late round picks at tight end. Don’t be surprised
to see Njoku take a step into the top-10 this year, and make a
major fantasy splash.
