As consistent of a fantasy player as they come, Stafford has
been one of the better value picks at the position for several
years now. He’s been well over 4,000 yards and has accounted
for 24+ touchdowns in four straight seasons. He has also become
a true asset for the Lions franchise, willing them to come from
behind victories, and although he’s still failed to win
a playoff game, he’s severely cut down on his turnovers.
He plays in a small market, and doesn’t get adequate respect
from his own fanbase, but those in fantasy football know that
Stafford is a lock for production year after year.
There has been some big coaching and personnel changes that need
to be considered when taking a look at Stafford in 2018. In comes
defensive minded Matt Patricia from New England. A very good sign
for Stafford’s continued development, and offensive continuity
is the fact they’ve kept Jim Bob Cooter on as the offensive
coordinator. Since taking over the position several seasons ago,
Cooter has helped the Detroit gunslinger stay upright, teaching
him to get rid of the ball more quickly. The offense thrives on
crossing and rub routes, and best of all, neither coach nor quarterback
is afraid to take calculated deep shots. Stafford led the NFL
in 2017 with 16 completions of 40 yards or more.
It helps tremendously that he’s got a versatile group of receivers
in Tate, Jones and Galladay who can get open at all levels of
the defense. What I don’t think bodes well for Stafford’s overall
fantasy production is the additions of LeGarrette Blount and Kerryon
Johnson at running back. I feel like the Lions finally have the
tools on the line and in the backfield to making running the ball
more than a theory. Blount is the best bet Detroit has had on
the goaline in a decade, and Johnson has the tools to be a workhorse
between the 20’s.
Ultimately I still think this offense runs through #9, but I
wouldn’t be surprised if Stafford came up short in the touchdown
department. Still, when it’s all said and done, Stafford
has the best overall offensive personnel grouping he’s had
in his career, and should be a shoe in for QB1 status.
Approaching his age 32 season, Blount, the hired gun (on his
3rd team in the last three years) gives the Lions the short yardage
battering ram they’ve lacked for a long time. Despite his
size, he can “get skinny” when he needs to and move
the chains. Now his final numbers look incredibly poor after winning
a ring with the Eagles last year, (766 yards, 2 touchdowns, a
16 touchdown regression from 2016 in New England) but this is
a player is familiar to the coaching staff, has a high football
IQ and will give Detroit quality snaps and carries, as he owned
a respectable 4.4 yards-per-carry average for the Eagles last
year. Unfortunately for fantasy purposes he’s incredibly
one-dimensional, and likely situational as well, especially if
rookie teammate Kerryon Johnson develops as the team expects.
The bottom line here is that Detroit brought Blount in to be a
veteran presence from winning organizations in a backfield that’s
frankly stunk for a long time. He’ll be a great short yardage
option and a fallback workhorse if necessary, but a few hundred
yards and half a dozen touchdowns is about the most you can expect,
making him an end of the roster RB5.
I’m going to go on record and state that Johnson is going
to be the first Detroit running back to rush for 100 yards in
a game since 2013. The ultra-productive (led the SEC in rushing
last season) 2nd round pick from Auburn is an athletic (all-state
basketball player in high school) and versatile addition to the
Detroit backfield. He doesn’t have elite quickness or speed,
but he plays fast, hitting the hole and getting to the next level
of the defense quickly. Some scouts have likened his running style
to Le'Veon Bell, and he has shown the ability to be a three-down
player at the pro level. Basically, he has everything coaches
and scouts need from a productive starting NFL back. He can generate
yardage in many ways, from sheer will, elusiveness and reading
the defense. But how exactly does all this translate into fantasy
relevance?
I’ll put it simply, I really like Johnson’s outlook
this year. Now some scouts were turned off by his combination
of frame and running style, being concerned that he might have
trouble holding up to big workloads in the NFL. Well, I don’t
think that’s a problem in Detroit. Even though he CAN play
on all three downs, he won’t HAVE to with Riddick and Blount
to pick up some of the dirty work. What Johnson WILL do is have
the opportunity to run behind a greatly improved offensive line
and a defense that will be spread out trying to stop the pass.
The offensive scheme will be a lot like his college offense, and
he has the intangibles to get on and stay on the field. His 20
touchdowns last season prove he has a nose for the endzone, and
his 55 receptions in three years at Auburn show he’s a quality
receiver as well. Riddick and Blount are complementary players
in this backfield, and Johnson should lead this team in rushing
by a significant margin if he stays healthy. Being the 6th back
taken in the draft, and playing for a team that’s been the
worst at running the football for years means Johnson could be
a steal in early drafts. I like him as an RB3 that has RB2 upside.
RB Theo
Riddick (2017 RB Rank - No.37, 6.4 FPts/G)
Back to playing in 16 games last season after an injury riddled
2016, Riddick did his thing, catching 53 passes and being the
Lions pseudo running game with his short route running. The 53
grabs were a far cry from his last healthy season in 2015 when
he caught 80. Entering his 6th season in Detroit, Riddick will
be called on far more infrequently as he’s been in the past.
With the additions of Blount and Johnson, and the current existence
of Abdullah, Zenner and Washington, Riddick can settle back into
his 3rd down/hurry up role on the offense as a reliable outlet
for Stafford. He holds very little value in standard leagues and
end of the roster depth in PPR leagues.
WR Marvin
Jones (2017 WR Rank – No.5, 10.3 FPts/G)
In a battle of Jones receivers, it was Marvin who got the best
of Julio in last season’s standard scoring rankings. He
also bested my personal projects by a ton, finishing as a solid
and fairly consistent WR1. So what the heck exactly happened last
season? Touchdowns and big plays, the two things really lacking
in his first season with the Lions in 2016. His 61 receptions
were good for only 29th in the league, but his 1,101 yards (9th)
and 9 touchdowns (tied for 3rd) boosted his value into the stratosphere.
The biggest benefit to having Jones on your fantasy team last
year was that these numbers were spread out over 16 games fairly
evenly, making him a rare consistent big play threat. But there
are a few reasons why I think this big finish is an aberration.
First, the offense in general is more balanced, and has a wider
array of playmakers. Backfield additions and the health and development
of Golladay should keep Jones’s target and reception totals
fairly muted. He’s been between 103-107 targets and 55-65
catches for three straight seasons, and I don’t expect a
deviation from those numbers in either direction. What I do expect
a drop off is in touchdowns. Despite elite body control and hands,
there will be other red zone options this time around, and I think
he settles into the 5-6 score range. If you are careful not to
chase his 2017 numbers and overdraft him, Marvin Jones should
provide some decent WR2 value for your team.
Handicapping the Lions passing game for fantasy purposes has
frankly been a dream. The trio of Stafford-Jones-Tate have put
up nearly identical stats for the two seasons they’ve played
together. Tate, despite some bumps and bruises played 16 games
yet again, and reached the 90-catch plateau for a fourth straight
time. He’s been so darn consistent that his 8.3 fantasy
points per game from 2017 is IDENTICAL to 2016! This offense plays
perfectly to his run-after-the-catch skillset. He gets open where
he needs to be (he caught 77% of the passes thrown his way), and
while he might not find the endzone often, he racks up catches
and yards in bunches. It’s not really complicated. In PPR
leagues he’s an easy WR1. In standard leagues he’s
a plug and forget WR2. Not exciting, but the kind of receiver
that helps fantasy teams string wins together and stay afloat
during tough times.
Ah, the one true wildcard in this Detroit passing game! Golladay,
the 3rd round rookie burst onto the scene in the 2017 preseason,
showing dominate ball skills. He instantly went from no-name to
hot pick in drafts last year, and it looked like he was off to
something special when his play continued into the season opener,
where he put up a 4-69-2 line in a win against Arizona. A bad
hamstring injury hampered his development, so we only got to see
glimpses of potential during his remaining 10 games, but I’ve
seen enough to declare him something special.
First, he has elite size at 6’4’’ 218. He uses
every bit of that frame to high point the football and is a big
play waiting to happen. He had 17 yards per reception on limited
snaps, highlighted by a four-game stretch during the middle of
the season where he averaged 27 yards-per-reception.
With a healthy offseason, Golladay’s upside is through the roof.
Scouts and NFL people are talking him up this offseason. He has
tremendous upside in this offense, as the Detroit passing game
was close to perfect when Golladay joined Jones and Tate in their
“11” personnel package. (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB). With the loss of move
tight end Eric Ebron, there are a bunch of targets available for
the taking. With no significant pass catching tight end currently
on the roster, the Lions can and will make 3-WR their base offense.
Despite the high praise, I still think Golladay is a year away
from being a true difference maker in fantasy (Tate is in the
final year of his contract). With Jones and Tate ahead of him
in the pecking order, there won’t be a weekly deluge of targets
available, but I can foresee KG having a handful of big weeks.
I’ll be trying to add him in every league I can as a stash with
tremendous upside.
TE Luke
Willson (2017 TE Rank – No.35, 3.0
FPts/G)
Unless your fantasy league gets points for blocking, I’d
steer clear of any tight end on this team. After cutting Eric
Ebron and failing to resign Daniel Fells, Detroit turned to career
back-up Luke Willson to fill their void. (Yes, it’s spelled
with two Ls, I’m afraid to admit how long it took me to
realize that) Willson carved out a nice niche during his career
in Seattle, but has a career high of 22 receptions in a season,
and although this offense made Ebron a top 10 fantasy tight end,
Willson has far less athleticism and draft pedigree. He’s
another solid veteran signing from a winning organization that
can help shape the culture of Detroit. He’ll be in the right
place at the right time, catch a few passes here and there and
be nothing more than a fantasy afterthought.
