The consensus No.1 fantasy quarterback heading into the 2017 season,
Aaron Rodgers certainly looked the part over the first five contests,
but a devastating shoulder injury torpedoed the season for Rodgers,
the Packers, and any fantasy owners caught in the aftermath.
Green Bay’s gunslinger returns with a healthy wing, but
comes back to a bit of a turnover in the receiver room (as well
as at quarterback coach). Much to the chagrin of Rodgers, Jordy
Nelson is gone, and although a talented group remains, Nelson
and Rodgers had an uncanny connection during their career together,
especially in the red zone. The Pack signed Jimmy Graham to fill
that void, but this offense has struggled to really get the tight
end involved in recent years, and nothing can replace the chemistry
Nelson had with his QB, as they often used improvisation and line
of scrimmage adjustments to score inside the 10.
All in all I think there’s enough talent on this offense
to make Rodgers a lock for top-3 status. How well he meshes with
Graham, and how well a suspect right side of the line blocks will
go a long way to determine just how high the quarterback’s
ceiling is. I think this will be one of the most improved divisions
in the NFL, and the fantasy quarterback pool is deep enough where
I’m not sure Rodgers will be the weekly advantage he has
in the past, but make no mistake, this #12 in green and gold is
still the best in the league.
The Ty Montgomery experiment had some high moments (Weeks 1 and
2) but mostly gets an incomplete for the season. With 18 receptions
over the first three weeks it was abundantly clear Montgomery
retained the ability to catch the ball after his transition from
receiver. He even found the endzone twice, but from Week 4 on
injuries to himself and his quarterback killed any fantasy value
he may have had. Montgomery’s biggest knock is his ability to
prove he could handle the rigors of a starting running back, and
that question mark certainly remains, as he missed a total of
11 games over the last two seasons. It looks like he’s spent the
offseason in Green Bay trying to build his body, but with both
Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones back, and proving they have the
talent to produce in the NFL, Montgomery finds himself smack dab
in the middle of a muddled backfield. It’s tough to gauge how
this backfield shakes out, but it’s clear Montgomery’s best usage
will come as a chess piece the Packers can move around. They are
fully committed to this experiment, and if he can stay healthy
he should catch 40+ passes, and his best returns should come as
a strong FLEX play in PPR leagues, or in the RB3 area in standard
leagues.
After being totally invisible for the first 9 weeks of the season,
Williams turned it on after injuries to Montgomery and Jones.
While the yardage numbers don’t jump off the page and the
average was well under 4 yards per carry, Williams proved to be
a chain mover and a guy who had a nose for the endzone, as he
tallied 6 total scores over the final 9 weeks of the season. He
more than held his own in the passing game, picking up 25 receptions
for 262 yards. Considering how long it took him to earn meaningful
snaps his 800+ total yards is fairly impressive. The biggest problem
I have with Williams is he lacks the speed and elusiveness to
generate yardage on his own, and that was evident last year when
the Packer passing game imploded without A-Rod. Williams should
have many more running lanes with his QB back under center, and
is the Packers running back with the best overall skill-set. With
all three guys healthy I think Williams settles in as the most
consistent fantasy prospect, especially in standard leagues where
he has a chance at low-end RB2 value.
As I’ve dug deeper into this Packers backfield the more
I realize that it really was an overall effective unit. Sure,
it wasn’t good enough to carry the Packers after losing
Rodgers, but the trio of Montgomery-Williams-Jones combined for
1734 total yards and 14 touchdowns. The main problem with those
numbers is they are spread over three players, and when healthy,
I don’ t know that any one of them will be the main man.
Jones was easily the most dynamic, if one dimensional (he only
tallied 22 yards on 9 receptions). The former Texas-El Paso star
didn’t see the field until Week 4, but flashed from Weeks
5-7, showing a penchant for big plays. His lack of polish as a
receiver and pass blocker and a knee injury in Week 10 basically
made his second half of the season a washout. I really think this
Packer running game has a chance to be very strong, and although
Jones is the back with the biggest upside, he’s got to prove
to be more than a big play in a bottle. Until he improves his
fundamentals (and don’t forget an October arrest that might
draw a response from the league), Jones is best viewed as a late-round
flyer with upside.
It took some time, but after two top-15 fantasy seasons, Davante
Adams has arrived as a legit fantasy star. It gets better in 2018,
as Adams ascends to the de facto No.1 receiver as Jordy
Nelson moves on to the Raiders. The biggest positive I can
glean from his 2017 season is he was able to produce even with
Brett
Hundley leading the offense (Adams had four games of 80+ yards
and 4 of his 10 touchdowns after Aaron Rodgers went down). Adams
is young (25) coming off two great seasons, and has the league’s
best pure passer back healthy. He showed extreme toughness last
year coming off a devastating hit against Pittsburgh that almost
killed him. He’s got size, speed, and most importantly, the trust
of his QB. I think a career year is on tap for Adams (1200 yards
and 10 touchdowns?), with a legit chance to finish as a top-5
fantasy receiver.
Overpaid for his production the last few seasons, it’s
frankly a miracle that Cobb is still a Packer. I’m going
to assume that ditching Cobb in the face of cutting Jordy Nelson
was probably a no-go with Aaron Rodgers, but the fact remains
that Cobb has settled as a mediocre slot reciever that needs a
high volume of targets to have consistent fantasy production.
A real asset in the red zone early in his career, Cobb has back-to-back
4 touchdown seasons, and has failed to top 655 yards since 2015.
The Packers running game is greatly improved, and the red zone
scores are going to be funneled to Graham and Adams. Barely a
fantasy starter on a good day, Cobb should see a slight uptick
in his numbers with A-Rod back, but ultimately Cobb is a back-end,
uninspiring WR3.
Other than a monster Week 3 (6-122), Allison was mostly invisible
for the bulk of 2017. Brett Hundley wasn’t good enough to
elevate the play of the offense, but the guy throwing to him in
that big Week 3 game is. With the loss of Nelson, Allison slides
in as the potential starter outside opposite Adams. Allison is
tall and rangy, and gives the Pack another option in the red zone.
He isn’t going to be gifted the starting role outside, especially
with a few rookies added via the draft, but if he does win the
job, a starting receiver in this offense is always worth a look
in fantasy.
Despite finishing as the 4th ranked standard league tight end,
Jimmy Graham looked terrible at times last year. In a Seattle
offense that couldn’t run the ball, Graham was the goal
line back, racking up 10 touchdowns, most of which came inside
the 5-yard line. Impressive as 10 scores is, that’s about
all that Graham provided his fantasy owners last year. He failed
to top 72 yards in any game, and was truly dismal from Weeks 14-16
where he totaled 2 yards. His 9.1 yards per reception was by far
the lowest of his career, and it seems his speed and separation
ability has been totally sapped by age and injury. Graham provides
very little outside the 20-yard line, and will again be severely
touchdown dependent. By the simple fact he’s playing with
yet another Hall of Fame level quarterback, Graham is a pretty
good bet for a top-10 finish at his position, but after having
to endure his maddening production last year myself, I’d
personally look for tight end options with more upside/consistency.
