Last Week’s Question: Were “zero-rb” drafters disproportionately successful in 2015?

One of the most insightful email responses I received to last week’s question was also among the shortest. According to Dan, “When you do not over-invest in running backs that are struggling, you are less emotionally attached to them and are willing to move on more quickly…true with any position but RBs get high valuation and banged up.”

I can illustrate Dan’s point with some poor decisions I made in the FFToday Staff League this year. My problems started when I took Eddie Lacy with the second overall pick in the draft, but things only went downhill from there. I could have recovered from that decision if I had acted quickly, but I knew that Lacy got off to a slow start in 2014, so I didn’t even consider trading him until October, by which point it would have been difficult to get anything valuable in return. In retrospect, it’s plain that my decision to draft Lacy was only negatively compounded when I let him tie up a roster spot for the entire season. Those choices had everything to do with an emotional investment (in my own decision-making process, if not in Lacy as a player), just as Dan points out.

Could a similar thing have happened with a receiver? Certainly. (You might even say it did happen with my second pick, Alshon Jeffery, who was great when he played—but didn’t play nearly enough.) But I think Dan’s right to suggest that even though WRs have their nagging injury concerns (hamstring, anyone?), they aren’t exposed to punishment in the way running backs are—and it’s usually easier to let them go when they become too dicey to play because there are always starting WRs available on the waiver wire, but rarely starting RBs.

As for specific success stories, I heard from oodles of zero-rb drafters who nabbed the likes of Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and Odell Beckham Jr. in the early rounds of their drafts. Of course those teams were successful—just like the teams of RB drafters who ended up with Matt Forte + Adrian Peterson or Le’Veon Bell/DeAngelo Williams or Jamaal Charles/Charcandrick West.

However, one of the strongest testimonials to the success of the zero-RB approach came from Michael, who reported that he made it to the championship in his league with a zero-RB draft that featured some of the less obvious WR choices in 2015:

My first four rounds were WRs: D Thomas, Cobb, G Tate, M Evans. I then went 4 [RBs in a row with] D Martin, J Stewart, Sproles, and Vereen hoping a couple worked out. I made some trades (Sproles + Vereen for Woodhead + P Rivers) and picked up Dave Johnson, Reed, Bortles. I rode WR and matchups although Cobb in my mind was huge disappointment. I’m in the championship this weekend with great matchups.

Like the strategy and would use again.

Thomas, Evans, and Tate all had occasional big games, but they weren’t nearly as reliable as the top 4 receivers I named above. Nevertheless, by focusing on WRs in the early rounds, Michael essentially trapped himself into taking undervalued RBs like Doug Martin and Jonathan Stewart in the mid-rounds of his draft—just as Tom hypothesized would be likely for zero-RB drafters in an email I quoted last week.

In a previous column, I mentioned the zero-RB draft approach I took in my primary league this season because I couldn’t believe how consistently I was winning the weekly high score prize. That tendency only continued, as I finished with 7 weekly high-score awards, the top seed in my playoffs, and a championship.

Like Michael, my focus on WRs in rounds 1-4 compelled me to pick up some drastically undervalued RBs in the middle rounds (including Stewart, T.J. Yeldon, and a Falcon by the name of Devonta Freeman). But unlike Michael, I hit home runs with three of my first four picks (OBJ, Julio, and DeAndre). My fourth WR, Jordan Matthews, was a disappointment until OBJ got suspended for my championship game—at which point Matthews stepped up like a champ. I could have won on the strength of RBs and WRs alone, but I only cemented my position by picking up the best defense in the NFL (Denver) in the twelfth round and a top 5 QB (Carson Palmer) in the thirteenth. I had more good running backs than I could use, so I traded Chris Johnson at the peak of his value for Golden Tate, who helped me through bye weeks/injuries.

I’m going to miss 2015 because I don’t think I’ll ever put together another team as unstoppable as that one—all of which is a long (and perhaps overly braggadocious) way of conceding that I am in no state of mind to be objective about the zero-RB approach. Of course I think it’s the bomb; it just won me a championship in a mega-league of 36 teams.

So I want to focus on some of the responses that challenge my uncritical adoration of this strategy. I’ll start with a note from John, who managed to win a championship with the zero-RB approach, but didn’t enjoy the mid-round RB success hypothesized by Tom:

You used my email in the midseason article you wrote concerning Zero-RB strategy. And I’m happy to report that I won points for the year and the title. Getting to play Antonio Brown, OBJ, and DeAndre Hopkins at WR each week was a big advantage. It was a lot of fun looking at the rankings each week and seeing all three of them at the top. I imagined my opponents asking themselves, “How the hell did he do that?” And when one of them had a bye, I also had Eric Decker and Greg Olsen.

The only bad thing about it for me was I never hit on a mid- to late-round RB. I drafted Bernard, Blount, and Blue and picked up a few schlubs along the way that didn’t work out. Being solid at QB (Dalton) and defense (Cardinals), made up for it. Had I hit on one of the mid-round RBs, I would never have lost a game.

Since I heard from a number of owners who won their championships without using the zero-RB approach, it’s only fair to include their thoughts on why the path they chose led them to victory. I can’t resist starting with the anecdote of a fellow Lacy owner named Jay:

I didn't go pure zero-rb because I drafted Lacy (the good it did me) in round one. Next I drafted Gronk, and then Hopkins. My next rb was was Carlos Hyde. I drafted Deangelo Williams in the 13th round hoping to get a couple weeks out of him and to keep the guy that drafted Bell from being able to handcuff. I won my championship this week with Williamsand David Johnson as my rb1 and rb2 and Hightower as my flex. The [main takeaway] from my team’s perspective is the number of different rbs that I played this year: Lacy, Hyde, Stewart, Williams (all of whom I drafted) and [waiver pickups such as] Thomas Rawls, Jeremy Langford, Javorius Allen, and of course, Johnson and Hightower. [That list doesn’t include early] draft picks once you get past Lacy and Hyde, who where both pretty much busts anyway.

Jay’s comment doesn’t do a lot to support the zero-RB approach, but it does suggest that in 2015, it may have been more important to pay attention to the shifting sands of the RB landscape than to draft a good RB early.

Robert was also struck by how different the team that won him a championship was from the one he drafted:

Here’s my draft: 1. J. Charles; 2. M. Forte; 3. D. Hopkins; 4. J. Matthews; 5. Davante Adams; 6. Jon. Stewart; 7. M. Stafford; 8. Bran. Marshall; 9. Ch. Johnson (MN WR); 10. D. Funchess; 11. O. Daniels; 12.Chiefs DST; 13. C. Catanzaro

By the time the Super Bowl rolled around, my roster was vastly different: Kirk Cousins; Doug Martin; Matt Forte; D. Hopkins; B. Marshall; David Johnson; Will Tye; Catanzaro; Broncos DST. Reserves: Tyrod Taylor; Jonathan Stewart; Frank Gore; Benjamin Watson; Bilal Powell.

In my opinion, the key to this year was neither “RB/RB” nor “Zero RB”. Instead, the key was playing the waiver wire. So many players got injured this year, or were just busts, that nobody could win based solely upon the results of their draft. In the Super Bowl, I started four players that I drafted. My opponent started two.

Our league has a fairly wide-open waiver process. On Tuesdays, every owner gets 1 waiver pick on a first-come, first-served basis at 8:00 a.m. After Tuesday, you can drop/add as many as you want.

Looking at our Super Bowl, the other owner and I were a couple of the most active waiver wire users. Before Game 1, I dropped Daniels for Tyler Eifert. After Game 1, I picked up Andy Dalton. Other owners bailed on Doug Martin and Frank Gore when they struggled at the start of the season, so I picked them up. When Dalton got hurt, Tyrod Taylor and Kirk Cousins stepped up big time. Getting David Johnson off the waiver wire didn’t hurt either.

Of course, good drafting helps. Hopkins in the 3rd was a good pick, but Brandon Marshall in the 8th still boggles my mind. Those two receivers carried me through some tough games this year.

The single most thorough argument against the zero-RB approach came from a reader named Wayne, who posted an extremely long and thoughtful comment directly to last week’s column. The first two paragraphs do a great job of covering some of his most important and insightful observations:

As a counter argument to the zero RB strategy, I ended up winning the championship in a 14-team standard league where my first three picks were all RBs--Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram, Latavius Murray followed then by 2 WRs (Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson). I then used my middle picks to draft high upside backup RBs and unpredictable RBBC committee RBs in Atlanta, Dallas, etc., and my late picks to draft fliers (like Karlos Williams and Christine Michael). I also played the waiver wire to grab RBs [with sudden, unexpected] opportunities. I waited until late to draft QBs and TEs and streamed at these positions. The mistake some people make in drafting RBs early is to assume they are then set at the position rather than to dominate their monopoly on a scarce resource and also take middle round RBs (thereby also limiting others, including zero RBers, from getting the RBs they want) and late round-RB fliers. If you hold 6 or 7 RBs, when bye weeks come in a 14-team league, everyone who is short on quality RB depth (which is most teams in a deep league) winds up dropping quality WR, TE and QB options just to find an emergency fill-in at RB that might give them low-end flex value as a one-week RB2. One can then drop one of their flier lottery ticket RBs that doesn't hit to build up their WRs, TEs or QBs. (No one ever drops a good RB, but people too deep in other positions but lacking enough good RBs during byenados did drop the likes of Jordan Reed, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, and Sammy Watkins to pick up mediocre desperation borderline flex RBs).

The Zero RB strategy rightly assumes that at least 1/2 of the top RB picks will bust, but it’s also the case that just as many of the zero RB favorites like Tevin Coleman, Joseph Randle, Arian Foster, Ameer Abdullah, Melvin Gordon, and CJ Spiller will bust as will be the Devonta Freemans, Doug Martins and Todd Gurleys that one is angling for. I would rather draft 3 top RBs AND at least 3 more zero RB preferred RBs assuming that of these 6 I will get 3-4 starting quality RBs (some from each group) than pass on all of the top RBs and assume that I'll be the one to strike it rich with each or most of my zero RB options. Everyone else is grabbing RBs in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds too so it’s not like the zero RBers are the only ones angling for Doug Martin and Devonta Freeman. In other words focusing either on only first 3 round RBs or only middle to late round zero RB saviors and fliers is likely to fail. One should do BOTH and accept/gamble that they can still find good starting level WRs, QBs and TEs.

I simply don’t have the space to include the rest of Wayne’s commentary, but I highly recommend it to curious readers. He makes a number of excellent points that help me understand that even though some of my success with the zero-RB approach in 2015 stemmed from the strategy itself, a good deal more came from luck and happenstance. For example, Devonta Freeman went undrafted in some leagues, but I took him in the ninth round of my primary league ONLY BECAUSE Mike Krueger had moved on him earlier than I expected in the FFToday Staff draft, which just happened to be fresh in my mind at the time. Otherwise, I could have ended up with Tevin Coleman and no Freeman handcuff (as happened in the FFToday league)—precisely as Wayne suggests was likely to happen to numerous zero-RB drafters.

I thoroughly enjoyed hearing from so many champions over the last few days and getting to read their own assessments of why they won. As always, I’m grateful to everyone who wrote in (whether I had a chance to include their commentary or not). If I get enough belated responses from other champions, I may be able to put together a column over the summer of 2016 about championship strategies that are completely unrelated to the zero-RB approach.

For now, this is Q&A signing off for the 2015 season and wishing the entire FFToday community a happy new year.

Survivor Pool Picks - Week 17 (Courtesy of Matthew Schiff)

Week 17 games are tough because some teams coast with backup personnel that ordinarily wouldn’t take the field, while others play at their best because they desperately need a victory to get into the playoffs. Once in a while, you get one of those “WTF” games, but this is the week to focus on contests in which both teams have a vested interest in playing just like they have all season (which isn’t always possible, as my own picks suggest). With that said, here are your best chances based upon what I have chosen over the season and which teams I have left to choose from. Take into account any last-minute news updates, as some coaches may not reveal their decisions to rest players until the games are about to start. Here’s wishing you good luck in your survival pools and all the best for a terrific 2016.

#3: Indianapolis over Tennessee (7-9, Cin, Phi, AZ, ATL, KC, SEA, SD, NE, DEN, GB, NYJ, CAR, Wash, CLE, PIT, NO)

Indianapolis limps into this must-win game unsure of who their starting quarterback will be. Andrew Luck has been unavailable since early in the season, and now Matt Hasselback and Charlie Whitehurst are out. That leaves recently signed Ryan Lindley, Josh Freeman, and Stephen Morris who was acquired from the Eagles practice squad through the waiver wire. Phew! Got all that? Whoever takes the field will be expected to win a game against NFL-caliber players that are far from pushovers. But a game manager can win against the Titans, assuming the Colt defenders continue to play with the intensity they’ve shown in recent weeks. It’s slightly surprising that the Colts haven’t been that clear-cut “best” survival pick all season, and it comes down to this game. If the Colts had any stability at the QB position, I would feel a lot more confident about this pick—which is why I rank it third among my top options this week.

#2: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (12-4, GB, Balt, NE, SEA, NYG, MIN, AZ, STL, ATL, PHL, Jax, Cin, CHI, TB, KC BUF)

The Steelers play early on Sunday against a Browns team that will be without Johnny “Football” Manziel this week due to concussion symptoms and the NFL’s protocol. Austin Davis will be under center in a game where Pittsburgh will want to make a statement early. If you haven’t used Pittsburgh by now, this is the week to bet on them for a share of your survival pool winnings, as they must win and hope for help to make the playoffs.

#1: Houston over Jacksonville (9-7 NE, Mia, SEA, AZ, ATL, GB, STL, KC, NO, Cin, CAR, NYG, PIT, BUF, JAX, OAK)

In their week 6 matchup in Jacksonville, Brian Hoyer and Arian Foster had their way with the Jaguar defense. But neither of these players will suit up this week because of injuries. In their place will be Brandon Weeden (the ex-Cowboy who was recently released in favor of Matt Cassell) and Alfred Blue. It’s tempting to write Weeden off as a failed backup, but the simple fact of the matter is that Houston phenom DeAndre Hopkins has made four suspect QBs (Hoyer, Ryan Mallet, T.J. Yates, and now Weeden) look competent this season. The Jaguars have the talent to win, but they’ve already been eliminated from the playoffs, and the team owner has already indicated that Coach Gus Bradley will be sticking around for at least one more season. Under these circumstances, it’s hard to see why the Jaguars (for whom nothing is at stake) will outplay the Texans (for whom a shot at the post-season is at stake). This is the kind of game when a guy like J.J. Watt steps up to create havoc—and I believe he will be the difference maker in this battle.