Arian Foster will be a fantasy asset on
a team with a track record of using RBs in the passing game.
Every year, we see a spate of NFL stars who rebound from injury.
Carson Palmer did it in 2015. Le’Veon Bell and Jamaal Charles
will presumably do it in 2016. Players also rebound from suspensions
or situational changes (think Adrian Peterson after his suspension
in Minnesota or DeAngelo Williams filling in for Bell in Pittsburgh
instead of splitting time with Jonathan Stewart in Carolina). Obviously,
owners who expect to pick up the likes of Bell and Charles cheaply
because of question marks about their health are deluding themselves.
But that logic will apply to players who aren’t marquee
RBs—if only to a limited extent.
Below, I’ve picked out players at each skill position that
I expect to be rebound candidates after disappointing performances
in 2015. The trick in valuing them is knowing that even though
they may cost their fantasy owners a little less than they probably
should, such players are rarely the bargains we would like them
to be—so we have to overcome our own concerns about what
went wrong last year in order to value them properly this year.
Readers are welcome to disagree and make cases for more promising
rebound candidates at each position, but the point of this column
is to get folks thinking about the niggling impulse many FFers have
to let injured/returning/displaced players prove that they are as
good as they used to be before taking a risk on them. That impulse
is understandable, but honoring it will probably mean losing out
on the opportunity to nab players with huge potential to contribute
to fantasy squads simply because of recency bias.
Many FFers are salivating over a
story from ESPN according to which Big Ben would like the Steelers
to go for 2-point conversions after every TD. No one doubts that
Roethlisberger will score plenty of TDs this season—not with
weapons such as Bell and Williams and Antonio Brown at his disposal.
The attempts at 2-point conversions that might follow those TDs
will only have to succeed 50% of the time to justify the approach
in terms of NFL scores. That’s close to the historical success
rate of 2-point conversions in the NFL and therefore unlikely to
have much impact on the Steelers’ overall record. However,
this approach would dramatically increase Big Ben’s value
relative to other fantasy QBs, since it could translate to roughly
an extra passing TD each week for a QB who is already elite.
Even if shot-caller Mike Tomlin decides against embracing this strategy
(though he’s the one who brought it up last year), remember
that Roethlisberger was a top 5 QB back in 2014—when injuries
didn’t riddle the Steelers at QB, RB, and WR. Don’t
let their bad luck last season persuade you that the Steeler triplets
(Bell, Brown, Roethlisberger) are anything less than the best in
the league. Nagging doubts about Roethlisberger’s age and
his injury-plagued 2015 performance will keep some FFers from pulling
the trigger on him when they should in draft or auction formats.
Succumbing to such doubts is a mistake.
I know; I know. It’s hard to get excited about players when
you’re not even sure which team they’ll end up playing
for. Foster’s extraordinary value in PPR leagues over the
years suggests that unless he ends up on a team with a flair for
passing to RBs, he could be a disappointment in 2016 even if he
is healthy enough to play. Moreover, word from the Dolphins’
camp after a Foster workout back in March was that he remains “a
little bit away” from returning to action.
But this is a negotiating tactic that NFL management uses against
veteran running backs every year—with the help of the press. Personnel
directors give sportswriters for major press outlets the impression
that players such as Chris
Johnson in 2015 (and Justin
Forsett in 2014 . . . and Fred
Jackson in 2013 . . . and on and on) may not be worth the price
of proposed or existing contracts given their age and the other
options available. The problem is that the players in question routinely
turn out not to be as washed up as the press leads us to believe.
Suggesting that talented RBs simply don’t have enough in the tank
to justify anything more than a league-minimum salary is a time-honored
tradition in the NFL. I didn’t buy that garbage concerning Chris
Johnson last year, and I don’t buy it concerning Arian Foster this
year.
Two-thirds
of NFL players are able to return to action roughly 11 months after
a torn Achilles tendon. My money is on Foster to be among those
who pull that feat off. Since his injury occurred in late October
of last year, I expect him to be able to contribute to an NFL team
by the end of September. If that team has a QB with a knack for
completing dump-off passes to RBs, I will be very interested in
Foster. I just hope I don’t overestimate the window of opportunity
for grabbing him (as I did with Johnson in various leagues last
year).
With the retirement of Calvin Johnson, a lot of people are wondering
whether Tate can be a true No.1 receiver. Tate’s fans say
there’s no need to wonder—since he demonstrated his
viability as a No.1 when he averaged well over 100 yards per game
while Megatron was sidelined in Weeks 6, 7, and 8 of the 2014 season.
Fortunately, you don’t have to decide whether a three-game
stretch of success sans Johnson proves that Tate can flourish without
help—because the Lions responded to Johnson’s retirement
by acquiring a bona fide receiving threat in ex-Bengal Marvin Jones.
Tate and Jones both finished 2015 with similar fantasy production
as low-end WR3’s in 12-team leagues.
Both should improve on their stat lines in 2016, though I expect
Tate to improve more than Jones. The Lions looked dreadful at the
beginning of the 2015 season partly because they were dreadful—but
partly because they faced a brutal schedule. They improved as the
season progressed, but most FFers were tuning them out by the time
Jim Bob Cooter took over as offensive coordinator.
Matthew Stafford adapted quickly to Cooter’s offense, and
he and teammate Golden Tate went into the offseason with firsthand
experience of the team’s new approach. Between Tate’s
excellent hands (his catch rate was in the top 10 among WRs the
past two years), his rapport with Stafford, his ability to rack
up yards after the catch, and his key role in an offense that is
coming together under Cooter, he’s more promising in 2016
than his 2015 stats suggest. The problem is that more of the FFers
against whom I compete are likely to reach that conclusion than
I would like.
TE – Martellus
Bennett (New England)
Some people will attend their drafts/auctions without even knowing
that Bennett has moved from the Bears to the Patriots. And when
they find out, they won’t care because another tight end hogs
the spotlight in New England: Rob
Gronkowski.
But there’s good reason to think that even if Bennett finishes
the season behind Gronkowski in terms of production, he’ll
still finish ahead of most Patriot receivers and a lot of No.1 TEs
around the league. Tom Brady’s bread and butter is connecting
with tall, athletic tight ends in complex coverage situations, and
Bennett (6’6” with a 4.68 second time in the 40-yard
dash) fits that bill every bit as much as Gronk (same height, same
speed) does.
Everyone knows that Brady finished 2015 with eye-popping stats.
But the most amazing thing about his productivity is that he pulled
it off without a reliable WR. Julian Edelman missed more than a
third of the season. Danny Amendola was worth a fantasy start in
five contests at most. And Brandon LaFell was so impressive as a
Patriot wideout that he is now a Bengal.
Brady’s stunning success as a passer in 2015 was achieved
primarily with assistance from his tight ends (Gronk and, to a lesser
extent, Scott Chandler) and his running backs (Dion Lewis early
in the season and James White later on). The Patriots know how to
put non-WRs to work in the passing game like nobody’s business,
so Bennett should fit perfectly into their scheme.
Bennett started 2015 as the unquestioned star TE for Chicago, but
he finished the season (thanks in part to a rib injury) with weaker
stats than teammate Zach Miller. So why should he improve in New
England as the unquestioned understudy to Gronkowski? Because Brady
understands how to squeeze receiving production out of non-WRs better
than anyone—that’s why.
For me, the question about Bennett isn’t whether he’s
worthy of my attention in drafts/auction, but whether he’ll
be available as cheaply as I want him to be considering my justifiable
reluctance to target a No.2 TE on any team. If I don’t overcome
that prejudice and my own recency bias, I won’t get him.
Other Suggestions
I know it’s the early part of summer and that a lot of FFToday readers
haven’t yet started doing their fantasy homework, but I invite those
who are in research mode to post comments or email
me with suggestions concerning other players they consider likely
to be widely (but not universally) undervalued in 2016 because of
injury and/or lackluster performances in 2015. I’m not looking for
analyses of the most dramatic comeback candidates, but of players
that fantasy owners will hesitate just a bit too long on grabbing
in 2016 because they think they deserve a steeper rebate than they’re
likely to get.
Mike Davis has been writing about fantasy football since 1999--and
playing video games even longer than that. His latest novel (concerning
a gamer who gets trapped inside Nethack after eating too many shrooms)
can be found here.
