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J.W. Gordon | Archive | Email |  
Staff Writer


2015 Player Outlooks: Carolina Panthers
8/17/15

 

Cam Newton

Newton's rushing ability gives him a high fantasy floor that can be had two rounds after Russell Wilson.


QB Cam Newton
(2014 QB Rank – 17, 22.3 FPts/G)

Cam Newton has seen his average fantasy points per game drop each season since taking the league by storm as a rookie in 2011. When healthy, he has produced top-10 results by relying on his rushing totals. All signs indicate he will be unrestricted and ready to run for the opening of the 2015 season, which should make him a popular choice after the top four or five quarterbacks are off the board. Without a deep talented pool of pass catchers and a gaping hole at left tackle, choosing Newton to anchor your fantasy team comes with plenty of risk. Over the past two regular seasons, Newton has logged nine games with more than 25 fantasy points and 13 games with less than 20 fantasy points. More recently, his numbers are quite comparable to that of Russell Wilson, another dual-threat quarterback with lackluster receivers on a conservative rushing offense. In 2014, the two were almost identical in passing attempts, completions, passing yardage, rushing attempts and total touchdowns, with Wilson getting the slight edge. Wilson is currently being selected almost two rounds ahead of Newton in 12-team formats, making the Panthers quarterback a better value. Anyone drafting Newton should also carry the insurance of a quality backup in case of injury. The Panthers would probably become more conservative if forced to rely on their backup quarterback. Nevertheless, the team resigned Derek Anderson to return as Newton’s backup. He completed 67 percent of his passes over five games last season and is capable of keeping the offense afloat if called upon again in 2015.

RB Jonathan Stewart
(2014 RB Rank – 22, 9.5 FPts/G)

If you have played fantasy football at any point in the past six years, you have probably shaken your head at least once when it comes to the Carolina backfield. Arguably one of the longest-tenured running back committees came to an end when DeAngelo Williams was released by the Panthers this offseason. Finally free of those rusty RBBC shackles, it seems logical to assume Jonathan Stewart would be one of the more prized running backs to own heading into 2015. Unfortunately, injuries have a way of scaring logic away. The situation is ideal with Carolina playing in a conservative offense that features a heavy ground game. Stewart’s competition for carries also appears to be ideal, with the quarterback more likely to be the team’s second-leading rusher than anyone else on the running back depth chart. The schedule isn’t a nightmare despite a Week Six road trip to Seattle. So what gives? The limited upside of Stewart’s touchdown ability is certainly real, with Carolina having goal-line weapons such as Newton, Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Tolbert. With vultures circling, there is a possibility Stewart loses six or more touchdowns. The injury risk is real as well. The former first-round draft pick has not been able to play a full slate of games for three years running. However, his yards per carry has always been solid and suggests a big year could be had if he simply stays on the field. This sounds a little similar to Arian Foster’s fantasy outlook heading into the 2014 season. Stewart doesn’t have the same type of ceiling as Foster but he does have a real shot to eclipse 200 carries for the first time since Newton took over. How many running backs are projected to see 15 carries a game after round three?

RB Mike Tolbert
(2014 RB Rank – 102, 2.1 FPts/G)

Every runner behind Stewart on the depth chart appears to have some limitations, making a committee approach extremely likely should Stewart get bitten by the injury bug this season. The most experienced man to lead the backup duties is Mike Tolbert. Coming off knee and leg injuries, Tolbert needs to regain confidence during training camp and reassert himself as a reliable option in a rushing attack that will need to replace Williams’ leadership role and carries. The Coastal Carolina alum has mostly been used as a goal-line runner since joining the team three years ago and he should slide back into that role again for 2015 if he is able to put his lower-body injuries behind him. Tolbert’s best-case scenario would see him given eight to 10 carries a game while serving as the primary option inside the 10-yard line, netting a half dozen scores.

RB Cameron Artis-Payne
(2014 RB Rank – N/A)

The team drafted Cameron Artis-Payne out of Auburn late in this year’s draft as part of its effort to get younger at the position. He is viewed as a project but might be the closest thing to a true backup running back on the roster. Jordan Todman was brought in to improve the depth of the team. He’ll probably push Darrin Reaves or Fozzy Whittaker off the roster but isn’t likely to be anything more than insurance in case Tolbert isn’t healthy to open the year, while giving Artis-Payne more time to develop. The depth chart will need to shake out during training camp, and while none of the team’s reserve options are brimming with fantasy appeal, someone might end up having a small run of fantasy value if Stewart goes down.

WR Kelvin Benjamin
(2014 WR Rank – 16, 9.7 FPts/G)

The Panthers lacked talent at the receiver position a year ago, and although rookie wideout Kelvin Benjamin posted a strong rookie season, the team added youth and size to its roster for 2015. Benjamin, the team’s top draft choice from a year ago, is a huge receiver who uses his body well to win battles for the ball. His nine touchdowns will probably be the norm for him moving forward, but he will need to put the hamstring woes he suffered during OTAs in the rear view mirror. He arrived at camp claiming to be 100 percent but it bears watching as the preseason unfolds. Even though he is atop the depth chart, the team may not be as inclined to feed Benjamin the ball as much, following a dismal 50 percent catch rate. This also makes Benjamin a riskier week-to-week option than other fantasy receivers in his tier. Without a dynamic passing attack to help offset any slides in his reception or yardage totals, Benjamin may see a small decline in his fantasy production for 2015.

WR Devin Funchess
(2014 WR Rank – N/A)

On the heels of Benjamin’s success, the Panthers added another tall receiver for Newton to help in the passing game. At six-foot four-inches and 232 pounds, Devin Funchess could give the Panthers their own version of Tampa’s twin towers. His role in the offense remains to be seen but early reports suggest the Panthers will be creative when finding ways to get their new rookie on the field. Fantasy owners shouldn’t get overly excited too quickly. This is the Panthers and they project to finish amongst the bottom quarter of the league in passing again for 2015. With Greg Olsen and Benjamin set to see the majority of targets, Funchess will be one of a few players left fighting for scraps. However, he does have the upside to move into a more prominent role if an opportunity arises. In deeper formats, he should be given a late look as a speculative option. Those in shallow leagues can take a wait-and-see approach.

WR Jerricho Cotchery
(2014 WR Rank – 74, 4.3 FPts/G)

Jerricho Cotchery has had a few productive fantasy seasons but 2015 won’t be one of them. In his first season with the Panthers in 2014, he only managed to garner 78 targets. Considering the additions the team has made at the position, it is pretty clear the Panthers are just using Cotchery as a stop gap until others emerge. Clouding his fantasy future more is the uncertainty of whether he will win a starting job out of training camp and keep it throughout the season. It’s tough to see him carve out a bigger role in his second season in Carolina, but stranger things have happened (like snatching 10 touchdowns in 2013). Philly Brown, a free agent rookie when he signed a year ago, was surprisingly helpful when he got into the lineup, averaging 14.1 yards per catch. As one of the team’s only deep threats, he could see success in three-receiver formations and the play-action passing game. Brown will battle free agent signees Jarrett Boykin and Ted Ginn for depth at the position. Both castoffs would need more opportunity before becoming fantasy relevant this year.

TE Greg Olsen
(2014 TE Rank – 4, 8.6 FPts/G)

Greg Olsen became the surest pair of hands in Carolina following the departure of Steve Smith. As a result, Olsen has seen his targets ascend over 100 for three consecutive seasons. The increased reliability helped Olsen post his most productive fantasy season to date in his eighth year as a pro. The team inked him to a new deal prior to training camp, and the plan should remain unchanged moving forward. Olsen’s upside is capped because he doesn’t provide much downfield game and his team has plenty of options in the red zone. However, the volume of passes thrown his way allows him to rack up plenty of receptions and yardage, making him one of the more consistent tight ends in the league. His totals from 2014 are far closer to his ceiling, but he isn’t likely to regress too much. There are a lot of uncertainties at the top of the positional fantasy rankings, with several tight ends moving to new situations. As a result, fantasy owners are putting more value into Olsen’s more projectable 2015 forecast. As a top-three tight end option in PPR leagues, Olsen’s value drops to that of an average starter in touchdown leagues, so let your league settings set Olsen’s value on draft day. Backup Ed Dickson hasn’t been able to recapture the fantasy spotlight since 2011, when he emerged as the starter in Baltimore. Even if his role is expanded at some point during the season, odds are there would be better fantasy options available on the waiver wire.