QB Brian
Hoyer (2014 QB Rank – No.25, 15.6 FPts/G)
When presented with the opportunity to leave Cleveland as a free
agent and sign with a quarterback-needy team, Brian Hoyer was
more than a little interested. Hoyer also has some familiarity
within the offense after cutting his teeth as a pro in New England,
where current Texans Head Coach Bill O’Brien was the offensive
coordinator at the time. He signed a modest deal but is clearly
making more than his primary competition, Ryan Mallett. For these
reasons, Hoyer should be considered the front runner for the starting
job, but he’ll need to have a strong preseason to shut the door.
The Texans know Hoyer has flaws but are hoping he will be successful
using a “try not to do too much” approach behind a strong ground
game and solid defense. His receivers are solid but not spectacular,
and the team’s offensive focus remains in the backfield.
QB Ryan
Mallett (2014 QB Rank – No.48, 9.3 FPts/G)
Ryan Mallett, another disciple of O’Brien’s system
in New England, will provide solid competition for Hoyer. Mallett
saw his audition cut short after a pectoral injury sidelined him
for the remainder of 2014. With mixed results in his two games
played, the jury is still out on Mallett’s ability. A full
offseason should give him a better chance to succeed. Thus far
in OTAs and at the outset of training camp, the two are splitting
reps and the battle remains fairly even on the field. For fantasy
purposes, however, Hoyer’s contract and more recent starting
experience make him the favorite to win the job. Regardless of
who starts, a lack of consistent passing attempts will prevent
either player to climb out of QB2 mediocrity.
RB Arian
Foster (2014 RB Rank – No.5, 18.1 FPts/G)
It’s all about health with Arian Foster – nothing
new here. Last season, the gamblers who took a chance on him hit
the jackpot with a player that had logged six 100-yard rushing
games by Week 8. The team’s floundering quarterback shuffle
in the second half of 2014 cost him consistency as he failed to
maintain his torrid pace. By the time the dust settled last season,
Foster had reclaimed a spot in fantasy’s top five running
backs. Where other fantasy runners may lose a few touchdowns when
their team lines up from inside the 10-yard line, Foster continues
to be an above-average goal-line option for Houston. Staying on
the field helps Foster pad his stats through the passing game
but also leads to plenty of weekly injury concerns during the
season. He’s on the right side of 30, turning only 29 years
old later this month. Consequently, he returned to being a first-round
selection in just about every format early in draft season, but
a groin injury during the first week of camp torpedoed his fantasy
value will sideline him for the early part of the season and possibly
until Week 10. As a result, he’s more of a RB4 in your draft
in hopes he can see the field late in the year and help your fantasy
playoff push.
Houston will look to Alfred Blue to help carry the load, especially
now that Foster has gone down with a groin injury, and that means
plenty of upside for fantasy owners. Blue still needs to hold
off Jonathan Grimes and company in training camp to secure his
status as “handcuff to Foster.” The second-year pro out of LSU
didn’t blow anyone away as a rookie and had some trouble with
pass blocking. However, his decision to work out with Adrian Peterson
during the offseason should not be overlooked. The extra work
should have Blue ready to improve on his uninspiring 3.1 yards
per carry from a year ago. If he does, he’ll have plenty of value
as a handcuff. That means any owner investing in Blue on draft
day is effectively using a roster spot on nothing more than a
lotto ticket on an unproven player. Blue will get first crack
to prove he can fill Foster’s shoes but there’s no guarantee he
can secure the job.
The drop off in talent at the running back position in Houston
continues with players that have limited upside. Although Blue
is expected to enter the season on top of the depth chart, Jonathan
Grimes is expected to be in the mix for carries. Injuries have
prevented Grimes from putting together a consistent season since
being drafted in 2013. He turns 26 this season, and 2015 may be
a make-or-break season for him. He will need a strong camp to
resurrect his fantasy value and bears watching in the backup running
back battle. Chris Polk comes over from Philadelphia to add some
more experience and has a similar opportunity with Foster on the
shelf for the first half of the season.
Changing of the Guard: DeAndre Hopkins
has taken over as the No.1 wide receiver in Houston.
The changing of the guard has officially taken place in Houston,
where Andre Johnson will no longer be lining up on the outside.
In comes DeAndre Hopkins, a player who enters his third year on
the heels of a breakout 2014 campaign. Fantasy owners won’t be
shy about drafting Hopkins in 2015. Those supporting Hopkins’
ascension into the top 10 fantasy wideouts must first believe
in another jump in targets. After receiving 93 targets as a rookie,
he saw 127 balls thrown his way in 2014. With Cecil Shorts and
others not likely to demand a huge amount of attention, a modest
increase is realistic. Secondly, the quarterback play is expected
to be better and more consistent, especially considering Hoyer’s
prowess with the play-action pass perfectly suits Hopkins downfield
skills. He will need to prove he is fully recovered from wrist
surgery earlier in the offseason. All signs point to him being
able to suit up for training camp after sitting out all of the
team’s OTAs. There is upside for Hopkins to achieve modest improvements
across the board. Simply repeating his numbers from a year ago
would still be productive for the 15th wide receiver off the board,
making him a solid investment on draft day.
Cecil Shorts appeared to be a fantasy player on the rise following
a productive 2012 but has only regressed since. He has yet to
play a full complement of games in a single season but slides
into a decent role with the Texans. If able to stay healthy, Shorts
should find just enough work within this offense to be a good
depth play for fantasy owners looking to round out their rosters.
Shorts has the skills to contribute anywhere on the field and
he will see plenty of favorable pass coverages with defenses keying
on Hopkins and the running game. Of course, those are the same
two reasons limiting Shorts’ fantasy ceiling to that of
a WR4 or WR5 in deeper leagues.
The run-first philosophy will not be too fantasy friendly to
the team’s lower-tiered wide receivers, and the aging Nate Washington
certainly falls into that category. Washington comes to Houston
following his worst season since 2008. A limited role on the offense
is to be expected where he will help mentor young rookie Jaelen
Strong. A third-round pick in this year’s draft, the six-foot
two-inch Strong has reportedly dropped the weight he recently
gained during the offseason. A hamstring injury added to his uneventful
first impression with the coaching staff. He needs time to develop
and is likely a few years away from developing into a potential
fantasy asset.
Garrett Graham is the most experienced in a group of mostly uninspiring
fantasy tight end choices. The incumbent starter failed to build
upon an encouraging 2013 campaign under the new coaching staff.
Houston seems to be content on making the tight end position more
of an extension of the running game rather than the passing game.
Making matters worse is the fact that there doesn’t seem
to be a huge drop off between Graham and the rest of Houston’s
tight ends. C.J. Fiedorowicz, a decent run blocker, has been hampered
by lower-body injuries to start his career. A return to health
could allow Graham to be more offensive-minded this year. Meanwhile,
Ryan Griffin enters his third season with the team and should
also battle for playing time during training camp. The lack of
a consistent pass catcher and threat of a committee approach makes
Houston a barren wasteland for fantasy tight ends in 2015.
