Finally Week 1 is upon us. Daily Fantasy football is becoming
more popular by the minute and many of you are scrambling to assemble
your cash game lineups before Sunday’s kickoff. The good
news is there is a lot of value to be found early in the season,
especially in Week 1 as player salaries are posted over a month
before the season starts.
In this column each week I will be highlighting my favorite value
plays on Fanduel as well as critiquing my cash game lineup from
the previous week. Since it is Week 1, I thought it would be a
good idea to post my primary cash game lineup (see below). It
is important not to get cute in cash games and take value when
it presents itself. Finding value allows you to spend big on a
few elite players you think have huge upside. This week I am heavily
invested in Aaron
Rodgers against Chicago and Julio
Jones against Philadelphia. It would be to your advantage
to think less about ownership percentage in cash games and concentrate
on achieving a very high floor. You do this by targeting volume
at running back, targets at wide receiver, and value when a great
salary or an injury presents itself.
Bradford is going to make Chip Kelly look very smart if he can
keep the momentum going into the regular season. Bradford was
nearly perfect this preseason, scoring on all four of his drives.
It has been well documented how quarterback friendly this system
is in Philadelphia but the real value here is the guaranteed volume
that comes with the amount of plays they run each game. Volume
is exactly what you want when you are constructing your lineups
in cash games. Vegas lines have this game being one of the highest
scoring of the week and I believe Bradford will be a main beneficiary.
No matter how good the Buffalo defense is you have to score points
to have a prayer of beating Andrew Luck and the Colts. Taylor
as a minimum salary quarterback has to be in the conversation
for top value plays of the week with just his rushing ability
alone. He was impressive in the preseason and with former 49ers
offensive coordinator Greg Roman at the helm; we could be hearing
more and more comparisons between him and Colin Kaepernick as
the weeks go on. If you don’t have some shares of Taylor
in your cash lineups this week your doing it wrong.
Undoubtedly Adams will be the most highly owned player in DFS
this week due to the injury to Jordy Nelson and his low salary.
With Nelson (knee) done for the season and Randall Cobb battling
a shoulder injury, quarterback Aaron Rodgers will be looking to
Adams early and often. If that isn’t enough, their opponent
this week is the Chicago Bears who won’t be stopping even
average offenses this year. We know Green Bay is a little better
than an average on offense and they never pass up an opportunity
to bury this NFC North division rival. My exposure to Adams in
cash games this week will be close to 100%. Set it and move on.
Johnson has wanted to play with a quarterback like Philip Rivers
his entire career. Where Johnson thrives is in the short to intermediate
passing game and catching contested passes. Rivers has both the
accuracy and the confidence to fit balls into tight windows and
let receivers like Johnson make plays. With Antonio Gates out
due to suspension and Ladarius Green likely to miss this game
due to a concussion, Johnson is a lock for a good amount of targets.
Again the idea in cash games is to get as much volume as possible
at a good value. Detroit is a notoriously hard team to run the
ball on so I expect San Diego to look to the air plenty in this
game.
Robinson was a popular “sleeper” this offseason and
for good reason. His quarterback Blake Bortles actually showed
some improvement in the preseason and Robinson was clearly his
number one target. He is the most talented player on this offense
outside of Julius Thomas who will miss this game due to a hand
injury. Not only will Robinson benefit with added targets but
his quality of targets will also increase without Thomas as a
threat in the red zone. The matchup against Carolina this week
is favorable. They gave up 15 touchdown passes to wide receivers
on the road last season. Start Robinson with confidence; he is
a great value play that will not be this cheap all season.
The clear feature back for the New York Jets will benefit from
the poor run defense of the Browns as well as game script. Ivory
was quite effective last year when given the opportunity of double
digit carries. It seems that new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey
is open to using Ivory in the passing game as well. Last year,
12 running backs reached double-digit fantasy points when facing
Cleveland and at this price Ivory’s value should not be
ignored.
The Miami offense will have a totally different look this season
and with rookie Jay Ajayi injured for the foreseeable future,
Miller will continue his feature role. Offensive coordinator Bill
Lazor is a product of Chip Kelly where the mindset is always that
a good offense needs a strong running game. In a contract year
and with an extra 10 pounds of muscle, I expect Miller to have
a strong campaign in his third pro season. The Miami defense may
steal the show against the Redskins this week, but there will
be plenty of opportunity for Miller in the red zone. As the Dolphins
find themselves with an inevitable large lead, Miller will benefit
from a considerable amount of volume for the price you pay to
get him in your lineup.
Outside of Rob
Gronkowski on Thursday night, Greg Olsen may be the highest
owned tight end in DFS this week. The amount of targets he gains
with the Kelvin
Benjamin injury cannot be understated. His value in the red
zone will continue to be substantial and is a value play at his
current price on Fanduel. Quarterback Cam
Newton has literally no one else to turn to outside of rookie
Devin
Funchess who may actually be more raw than Benjamin was last
year. Ted
Ginn Jr.? Philly
Brown? No thanks. I expect a huge game from Olsen and he is
a slam dunk cash game play against Jacksonville.
