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Joe Holka | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Daily Guidance: Week 13
Value Plays
12/4/15


Week 12 was basically two completely different weeks as the Thanksgiving games had their own slate on FanDuel. That is exactly what we did in this column as I posted a cash lineup for both the Thanksgiving slate and weekend slate. I advocated the use of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson which I hope propelled you to at least making it over the cash line in your 50/50’s, Double-ups, and head-to-head contests. As a whole the “chalk” struggled a bit on Sunday with many people rostering players like DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones only to see them underperform. However, putting faith into Stevie Johnson and Gary Barnidge was enough to put you in the money in most cases last week.

Moving forward to Week 13, there are some clear value plays that I will most definitely be taking advantage of. Below is my current cash lineup as well as some detailed value plays. Be sure to check back on Saturday/Sunday morning for an update.




Value Plays


RB – David Johnson, ARI ($5900) @ STL

David Johnson has been given the keys to the running game and he participates in one of the best offenses in the league. With both Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington hurt, the rookie should see considerable volume in a plus matchup. Arizona is a home favorite and the heavy volume alone makes him the clear value play of the week at running back at FanDuel.

TE – Scott Chandler, NE ($5300) vs. PHI

Scott Chandler is one of the cheapest options at tight end this week and quite possibly one of the better red zone options left in this offense. Chandler has eight red zone targets this season and will be in line for more with Rob Gronkowski (knee) out of action. FanDuel emphasizes touchdowns more than some other sites and Chandler should have no problem meeting value in cash in Week 13.

WR – Martavis Bryant, PIT ($6900) vs. IND

If Big Ben suits up, Martavis Bryant could be the top play on FanDuel this week at the WR position in regards to $/point. With the Steelers high point total and Antonio Brown dealing with Vonte Davis, Bryant is in line for a big game. He will be covered by cornerback Greg Toler who has earned a 38/100 grade by PFF this season. Advantage Bryant.

WR – DeVante Parker MIA ($5200) vs. BAL

Rishard Matthews is out indefinitely with fractured ribs, plural. Sounds like he will be out awhile and although the majority of the fantasy value from last week’s game came in garbage time, Parker’s price is just too good to ignore. This is the kind of opportunity the talented rookie has been waiting for and it comes in a great week against a Ravens team that ranks in the bottom five in pass defense.

WR – Eric Decker, NYJ ($7200) @ NYG

Decker has been killing it for fantasy owners this year. He has scored a touchdown in eight of ten games this season and hasn’t had less than 60 yards since Week 6. He has consistently been a top red zone target in this offense and has a very high floor for cash games at a very reasonable price. The Giants have one of the worst defenses especially against tight ends and it just so happens Decker runs a lot of the same routes in the slot. I expect the defense to focus its efforts on Brandon Marshall after his huge game last week, which will leave Decker matched up with Trevin Wade. A very favorable matchup and price makes him a great value play this week.

WR – Alshon Jeffery, CHI ($7700) vs. SF

Jay Cutler has been surprisingly good this season and this week will finally have his full array of weapons back. The San Francisco defense has been terrible on the road this season and they don’t have anyone that will be able to stop Alshon Jeffery. He should be at full go after a long week of rest and in a plus matchup could be a great value, even at $7700.

RB – Jonathan Stewart, CAR ($7200) @ NO

The knock on Jonathan Stewart is Cam Newton stealing his red zone carries. What people don’t realize is that Newton normally takes over inside the 10 but Stewart actually leads the NFL in red zone carries inside the 20. Against a New Orleans defense that bleeds yards to running backs he could easily break one of these red zone carries into a touchdown. This week, the Panthers are favored with a high team total (28.3). Stewart will have plenty of opportunities to punch in a score and he has had 20-plus carries in each of the last seven games. He is a top play in Week 13.