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Joe Holka | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Daily Guidance: Week 4
Players to Fade
10/2/15;


Normally in this column we focus on value plays on FanDuel and I also post one of my primary cash lineups. This week however we are going to focus on what players to fade in Week 4 cash games.

Before I get to it, I want to recap what happened last week with my primary cash game. Hopefully you weren't like me and trotted out Marshawn Lynch in your Thursday contests - that was a big whole to dig out from. If you checked back, you would have noticed I changed my lineup when the news broke regarding Lynch’s status and my revised lineup did very well. In a week where huge scores were posted, my primary cash game lineup kept up well enough to cash in most contests. It was led by great performances from Cam Newton, Adrian Peterson, and Larry Fitzgerald. It's always nice to rebound after a tough Week 2, and I apologize if you weren't able to get Lynch out of your lineup in time.

As we move forward to Week 4, I want to stress that choosing players to fade in cash games can be every bit as important as finding value. Some of these fades lead me to this week’s lineup which I believe represent a very high floor… exactly what you want in cash game lineups.

FanDuel Lineup Week 4

Players to Fade

1. RB - Carlos Hyde, SF ($7400)

Last week Carlos Hyde was a victim of another poor game script as Colin Kaepernick threw two interceptions for touchdowns in the first quarter. This is exactly the reason so many people were down on Hyde this summer. If the 49ers can't improve as a team and keep games close, this will be a recurring theme. It doesn't help that pass-catching running back Reggie Bush could be close to returning. When games are out of hand Bush may see more snaps than Hyde. This week against the Green Bay Packers, I don't see Hyde and this offense getting back on track, I would fade him in your cash lineups.

2. QB - Andrew Luck, IND ($9100)

I know Indianapolis plays a Jacksonville Jaguars team that was absolutely blown out by Tom Brady and the Patriots last week but hear me out. There is no doubt that Luck has struggled this year, both with poor offensive line play and turnovers. Everyone is waiting for the breakout game from him to finally hit the value we expect. Hoping and praying is not a good strategy in DFS, especially in your cash game lineup. The problem is not his talent, it is his price. He is still the No.2 quarterback on FanDuel, $100 less than Aaron Rodgers who threw five touchdown passes last week and draws San Francisco this week. Luck is also dealing with a shoulder injury that his him Questionable for this game. Even if he does start, either pay up for Rodgers or move back to a value play like Derek Carr or Tyrod Taylor. Don't get cute, fade Luck until he shows us something.

3. RB - Joseph Randle, DAL ($7400)

Three touchdowns on 14 carries last week will be an extremely hard thing for him to duplicate this week against the New Orleans Saints. That sound you hear are the footsteps of the talented Christine Michael coming for Randle's job. Dallas has made it clear that his opportunity will come sooner rather than later and that doesn't sound like a great endorsement for Randle. I don't see him getting a large share of carries in this game and that is what you are after from your running back in cash games. Volume is very important when constructing a high floor lineup. Let someone else take the risk and chase last week’s points, fade Randle in Week 4.

4. WR - Allen Robinson, JAX ($6500)

Though it is debatable who has been running routes better as of late Robinson or Allen Hurns, I love Robinson's talent. I do not love his situation, mainly his quarterback Blake Bortles. Last week against the Patriots, on one of the first plays of the game, Robinson beat his cornerback with a nice double move. Bortles stared him down the entire time, hesitated, and then underthrew a ball that Robinson could have taken to the house. He gave the defender time to catch up and allowed the safety over the top ample time to come help. Those frustrating plays make it hard to trust Robinson in cash games. Essentially you are trusting Blake Bortles, not something I like to do with my money. This week against Indianapolis the Jaguars should be playing catch up most of the game. Even with a garbage time touchdown extremely possible, I'm not ready to take that risk. I'm fading Allen Robinson in cash games for the foreseeable future.

5. RB - C.J. Spiller ($5500)

Coach Sean Payton has vowed to get C.J. Spiller the ball more. He is very capable of doing so and being very successful at implementing Spiller in a Darren Sproles type roll in the offense but I will believe it when I see it. I like Ingram in this game and I believe that he will continue to catch passes as well, something we didn't predict this summer when Spiller was signed. It remains to be seen if quarterback Drew Brees will be available for this game but even if he is, I don't see Spiller being a slam dunk cash game play, even at his attractive price. He's a fade for me in Week 4.

6. RB - Eddie Lacy ($7800)

The game script should be a good one as I expect Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to walk all over the 49ers in Week 4. If the game is well in hand this might actually hurt Lacy I'm afraid. His ankle has clearly been limiting him and if Green Bay gets off to a lead it is very possible we will see more of backup running back James Starks as he has shown that he is very capable of handling the load. This situation is too risky for me at a salary of $7800 as I feel like at any moment Lacy could tweak the ankle and be done for the game. I’m fading Lacy until I'm confident he has moved past his injury.

7. WR - Calvin Johnson ($8100)

Though I'm not convinced he may fall off a cliff this season like some, I want no part of him at this price in cash games against Richard Sherman and the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4. I don't see quarterback Matthew Stafford righting this ship this week, especially against the Seahawks on the road. The Seahawks just held the Bears to under 100 yards passing. They are an angry football team that you don’t mess with at home. All Lions are a fade for me this week, this includes Megatron.

8. QB - Eli Manning ($7800)

There are too many quarterbacks at this price point or less this week that I like more. Let me rephrase, quarterbacks not facing the Buffalo Bills on the road. Again I would rather roll with a cheaper option likeTyrod Taylor, Derek Carr, or even Andy Dalton in plus matchups. Even with Odell Beckham Jr. as his main weapon, Eli is clearly a fade in Week 4.