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Joe Holka | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Daily Guidance: Week 7
Value Plays
10/23/15


This week we circle back to value plays in my Daily Guidance column. I will be highlighting my favorite value plays on FanDuel as well as posting my primary cash game lineup for the current week.

Week 7 provides us with a lot of great plays. It is clear in cash games that Todd Gurley and Antonio Gates are the top options. Expect them both to be very highly owned. Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald have been extremely consistent this year and this should continue on Monday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens this week. I believe this lineup to have a very high floor, which is exactly what you are looking for in your cash games.


FanDuel Lineup Week 7

Value Plays

1. RB – Todd Gurley, STL ($7400) vs. CLE

Gurley is the top cash game play of the week. He is around the same price point as guys like Mark Ingram and Doug Martin, yet could out produce guys like Adrian Peterson and Le’Veon Bell. Gurley will face the Cleveland Browns who sport the worst run defense in the league. Not only is he at home, but Gurley also received 30 carries in his last game. It’s not often a value comes at this price, but this is the exception. Plug Gurley into your cash game lineups, don’t over think it.

2. WR – Stefon Diggs, MIN ($5800) @ DET

After being compared to Antonio Brown by his teammate Mike Wallace, Diggs remains on the radar this week as a top value play even with Charles Johnson possibly making his return. The rookie has been impressive in his both his route running ability and more importantly the violence he brings to all of his movements. He has high-end athleticism and is quickly becoming possibly the best wide receiver on the team. The Vikings face a divisional foe in the Lions who have a defense ranked just 22nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game.

3. TE – Antonio Gates, SD ($5800) vs. OAK

Like Gurley, there is a clear option for cash games this week. Antonio Gates is priced at the fifth highest tight end this week on FanDuel. He will face an Oakland Raiders team that is one of the worst in the league at defending the position. Gates has averaged 3.5 red-zone looks per game since his return and I do not expect that number to decrease this week. Philip Rivers has been on an absolute tear the past few weeks and the Chargers will be looking to make a statement in this divisional matchup.

4. RB – Theo Riddick, DET ($5200) vs. MIN

Riddick has proven to be the most reliable running back for the Detroit Lions this year. With Joique Bell still struggling with injuries, Ameer Abdullah having fumbling issues, and Zach Zenner lost for the season; the team has leaned on Riddick heavily with 33 receptions early in the season. The Vikings defense is ranked 19th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game and did relatively well against a stale Kansas City Chiefs team last week but this will not be an overly tough matchup.

5. WR – Willie Snead, NO ($6500) @ IND

Even in his down games Snead is the wide receiver to trust in New Orleans, not Brandin Cooks. Quarterback Drew Brees has looked dominant as of late and his new favorite weapon is locked in for a large amount of targets again this week against the Colts. Indianapolis has really struggled so far this year ranked 28th in the NFL in passing yards against. His ceiling isn’t overly high, but the volume should be there making Snead a good bet to meet value at his price of $6500.

6. WR – Eric Decker, NYJ ($6200) @ NE

Decker has been a machine scoring touchdowns his whole career and his quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is not afraid to look his way in the red-zone. Last week Decker had 7 targets in which he took 59 yards and a score. This week against the New England Patriots, the Jets will have to go to the air to put up points and very well could be behind as well to produce a friendly game script for Decker owners. I love Marshall this week as well but the price point of Decker is too much of a value to pass up in cash games.

7. QB – Teddy Bridgewater, MIN ($6600) @ DET

Teddy Bridgewater has struggled this year playing behind a very poor offensive line in Minnesota. Although he didn’t do a whole lot to keep the offense moving last week in a good matchup against KC, he will be a good bet to rebound this week against the Lions 22nd-ranked pass defense. There is a chance that Charles Johnson could be back in this game but expect Bridgewater to be looking for rookie Stefon Diggs extensively as he may be the team’s best consistent route runner.

8. WR – Donte Moncrief, IND ($6500) vs. NO

Moncrief had 11 targets last week against the Patriots in Andrew Luck’s return. He was able to secure six receptions for 69 yards and also had a nice catch for the Colts first touchdown. Luck has relied heavily on Moncrief this year and at $6500 on FanDuel he is a value in Week 7 against a terrible New Orleans defensive unit. Luck needs to get the ball out quicker behind this poor offensive line but there is a lot to like in this game for the Colts most consistent receiver this year.