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Joe Holka | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Daily Guidance: Wildcard Weekend
Value Plays
1/7/16


Week 17 was a good week in cash. Plays such as Rashad Jennings, Julio Jones, Zach Ertz, and Colts Defense should have led you over the cash line in most contests. It’s always nice to leave the end of the regular season on a high note.

In playoff weeks, cash games entail quite a bit more risk than a larger regular season slate. That is not to discourage you from playing, just to inform you that it may be advantageous to scale back your exposure a bit. With just four games, the lack of options gives the advantage to the novice player, as there are less “wrong answers” and not as many choices to make overall. Lineup construction is a bit more limited but there is still value to be had this week.


Week 18 FanDuel Lineup

Value Plays


QB – AJ McCarron, CIN ($6,400) vs. PIT

AJ McCarron is the clear top value at quarterback on this small Wild Card slate. No QB especially stands out on paper and this play allows you to load up at other positions. McCarron has the best matchup on paper against the Steelers who are in the bottom third in pass defense in the NFL. When McCarron first faced the Steelers in relief of Andy Dalton (injury), he threw for two touchdowns and 280 yards along with two interceptions. McCarron has yet to throw an interception since and has thrown four touchdowns and has been a very steady option for the Bengals.

WR – Antonio Brown, PIT ($9,500) @ CIN

He may not be a value but he has to be mentioned as the top WR option on the slate by a wide margin. Brown finished the season second in the NFL with 1,836 receiving yards and tied for the lead with 136 receptions. He has caught at least six passes in ten straight games and has a very high floor for cash games every single week.

RB – Eddie Lacy, GB ($6,000) @ WAS

The danger here is the lack of effectiveness of the Green Bay running game in general and the fact that they have been going with the “hot hand” approach of late. But the matchup is great against Washington who has allowed 4.8 yards per carry to running backs this season and is by far the worst team against the run on this slate. Lacy is a touchdown regression candidate with just one touchdown in his past three games and the offense will have plenty of opportunities to score in this one.

WR – Doug Baldwin, SEA ($7,300) @ MIN

Baldwin has twelve touchdowns in his last eight games while averaging just over 90 yards per game over that time period. He finally had his touchdown streak end last week but he will still be a focal point of this Seahawks offense in the red zone. In a touchdown heavy format on FanDuel, Baldwin has to be a consideration in cash every week. In Week 13 Baldwin had a 5-94-2 receiving line against the Vikings and Russell Wilson is still playing as well as any quarterback in the league.

RB – Jeremy Hill, CIN ($6,700) vs. PIT

Jeremy Hill had his first 20-plus yard run of the season last week and showed a flash of what we saw from him in 2014. Since McCarron has been starting, Hill has received 16 carries in all three games. He will be heavily leaned on as the feature back in the Wild Card Round in a week that is extremely murky at the RB position. His strength is still touchdown production over yardage, which suits the FanDuel format very well.

TE – Richard Rodgers, GB ($5,200) @ WAS

Rodgers has been the most efficient red zone target for the Packers the past three weeks. Rodgers has thrown three interceptions to receivers in the red zone on 29 attempts in the past three games but has connected with Rodgers twice for touchdowns on six targets over that span. Rodgers leads all Green Bay receiving options in FanDuel points over the last six games. The Redskins have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to tight end over the last four games.

TE – Jordan Reed, WAS ($7,400) vs. GB

Reed has been producing Rob Gronkowski numbers for a non-Gronkowski price all season long. Reed finished with 87 catches for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns in his 14 games played. Aside from last week where the Redskins rested starters, Reed had seven or more targets in six straight games. Reed is the chalk at TE this week but at a premium price and ownership.