Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible. The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent. As mentioned in my previous articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each week is more so a result of targets. And failing that – Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary, helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.

Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700 per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.

Too Cheap: Tyrell Williams currently sits as the No.20 wide receiver averaging 15.7 yards per catch.

1) Tyrell Williams - DK Salary $5,700

Tyrell “The Gazelle” Williams is used to carrying the water for the Chargers after his teammates go down with injuries. This week fellow Chargers WR1 Travis Benjamin did not practice Wednesday and visited a doctor last week for a second opinion on his sprained PCL. In case you didn’t know, that is a very bad sign, leading many to think Benjamin will not take the field until after their Week 11 bye. Williams, while having some knee issues of his own, has still played every week and turned his 55 targets into nearly 600 yards and 3 TDs. In nine games he is the 19th best fantasy WR, and his arrow is pointing up. Look for him to receive a healthy number of targets (as he has in every game as a starter when not facing Denver) and find success versus the Dolphins bottom ranked pass defense.

9 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full sun)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 4: -1 AO

Totals: $5,700 / 9 AO = $633 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

2) Jordan Matthews – DK Salary $5,900

With the over/under set at 51 points, the Falcons vs. Eagles game looks to be a barnburner. The main challenge we have is finding out which player will be the main beneficiary of those points scored. I believe that will be Jordan Matthews for three main reasons. First, the Falcons have given up the second most yards, touchdowns and points to wide receivers. Adding to this, Matthews runs his routes out of the slot, which only further separates him up from the Falcons top ranked corner, Desmond Trufant. Second, the Eagles will have to throw the ball, a lot, to keep up with Matty Ice, Julio Jones and the rest of the Falcons top ranked offense. Finally, the November weather is perfect, with full sun expected. The stage is set… let’s see if Jordan Matthews can deliver.

8 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full Sun)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 1: +1 AO

Totals: $5,900/ 10 AO= $590 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

3) Kenny Britt - DK Salary $4,900

Kenny Britt is on pace for a career high in targets (110) putting him only 10 targets shy of the ever important 120 target threshold. If you need a reminder, players who receive 120 targets or more in a season, have a 75% chance of coming top 25 in fantasy scoring. People are wondering why Britt is finally breaking out in his eighth season, the reason is because he has never received more than 90 targets. When the Rams decided to give him 84, he turned that into 750 yards and 3 TDs. When they decided to give him only 72, he still turned it into nearly 700 yards and 3 TDs. He is a supremely talented and underrated player who has never really had steady quarterback play. This Sunday versus the Jets, look for Britt to again receive a healthy number of targets and continue his impressive season.

7 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full Sun)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment:

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 3: +1 AO

Totals: $4,900 /9 AO= $544 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

4) Alshon Jeffery – DK Salary $6,600

Alshon Jeffrey is not having an amazing season. However, he is still receiving an average of 8 targets per game, has nearly 600 yards in eight games, and is continuing to be targeted on deep routes. This week, Jeffery has both Jay Cutler back at QB and the Buccaneers bottom ranked defense on tap, so there should be no reason why he can’t produce a vintage Alshon Jeffrey performance. Look for Jeffrey to be targeted early and often as Chicago tries to stay close with Tampa’s high scoring offense.

8 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO (running with an ADoT of 14+)

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Mostly Cloudy)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 2: +1 AO

Totals: $6,600/ 11 AO = $600 per adjusted opportunity (AO)