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Sean Holler | Archive | Email  
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DFS University: DPAO Wide Receiver Picks for Week 12
11/25/16


Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible. The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent. As mentioned in my previous articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each week is more so a result of targets. And failing that – Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary, helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.

Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700 per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.


Larry Fitzgerald

Larry Fitzgerald: The lone bright spot in the Cardinals passing attack has been the ageless wonder.


Week 12 DPAO picks

1) Top Pick - Larry Fitzgerald - DK Salary $7,000

Third in the NFL in targets (WR), and 8th in yards (WR) - Larry Fitzgerald is at it again. If I have one fantasy regret, it’s that I never hopped onboard the Larry gravy train all these years, instead predicting “this is the year he goes down!” Oh, and that time I drafted rookie Ryan Mathews out of Fresno State with the 6th overall pick in 2010, that didn’t turn out well. The good news is, it’s not too late to get in on the action as Fitzgerald is playing the Falcons in a match-up ripe for success. As I have mentioned previously, the Falcons are not very good at pass defense. However, they have a very strong corner in Desmond Trufant who lines up at outside cornerback. Fitzgerald on the other hand, runs most of his routes out of the slot, and will instead be facing Brian Poole, a player who has struggled this year. Adding to this, Fitzgerald is averaging over 10 targets per game, is playing in a dome, and is predicted to be down by 5.5. Look for Fitz to receive a healthy volume of targets, giving both you and him multiple chances to succeed.

10 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Dome)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 5.5: +2 AO

Totals: $7,000 / 13 AO = $538 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

2) Brandon LaFell - DK Salary $4,600

Averaging just over 5.5 targets per game, LaFell has been a boom or bust option for fantasy owners all year and thus could not be really trusted in any DFS cash or tournament game. However, last week both A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard went down with serious injuries. This has freed up a whopping 44% of the Bengals targets. In a game where they are predicted to be down, they might not be able to afford changing the offense, and instead may have to rely on their tertiary options such as LaFell. Even at his old target level and salary, you are paying an expensive but not insane $750 per target. If we adjust for new conditions, good weather, positive game flow, and target displacement from Eifert, he becomes a risky, but ridiculous bargain.

6 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full Sun)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% AO

A lot of analysts are projecting Eifert to have a big game after the loss of Green and Bernard, however this might be a superficial prediction. The Ravens defense is particularly strong at linebacker and strong safety position. Thanks to Eric Weddle and Co., they allow an average of 34 yards per game to tight ends. The Ravens most glaring weakness is their poor outside cornerbacks. I expect the Bengals to take advantage while the Ravens overcorrect to Eifert.

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 4.5: +1 AO

Totals: $4,600 / 9 AO= $511 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

3) Amari Cooper- DK Salary $7,700

I have been advocating for DFS players to select Michael Crabtree instead of Amari Cooper due to his lower salary and similar opportunities to produce. This week however, I cannot make that same recommendation. Like the Falcons defense mentioned above, the Panthers are not very good against the pass. The exception being rookie Carolina corner James Bradberry. With 34-inch-long arms, and standing over 6 feet tall, Bradberry is a strong and aggressive corner. He lines up predominantly on the defensive left side of the field - right where Crabtree operates. And while Crabtree is a better, more polished player, the match-up on the other side of the field is too juicy to ignore for both Carr and DFS players: Cooper versus Daryl Worley. Look for Carr to displace targets to Cooper and for Crabtree to have his hands full with an up and coming star corner.

9 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full Sun)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% AO

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be even: N/A

Totals: $7,700 /12 AO= $641 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

4) Mohamed Sanu - DK Salary $4,300

After watching a few games this season, I had a bold prediction. Cam Newton was going to fail throughout as a result of injuries and increased defensive attention, and that the Falcons pass offense was going to be explosive. So I made a brave move - I traded the number 1 quarterback in 2015, for Mohamed Sanu and picked up Matt Ryan off waivers. This didn’t work out exactly as I had planned. The Falcons are a top offense, and Matt Ryan is definitely putting up MVP numbers, but Sanu isn’t a consistent part of it. That being said, he has serviceable games and I believe this week versus Arizona he will have another one. Patrick Peterson is expected to shadow Julio Jones, they are playing in a dome, and Vegas predicts over 50 total points scored. Look for Sanu to give you strong production for a low cost.

7 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Dome)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% Peterson will limit Jones.

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 5.5: -2 AO

Totals: $4,300 / 7 AO = $614 per adjusted opportunity (AO)