Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible. The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent. As mentioned in my previous articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each week is more so a result of targets. And failing that – Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary, helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.

Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700 per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.

With 897 yards and 9 touchdowns, Davante Adams is in the running for Comeback Player of the Year.

1) Top Pick – Davante Adams DK Salary $6,100

After Week 14, choosing DFS players becomes even more difficult. The added variables of teams sitting a successful player if they are winning or losing by a large margin in preparation for the playoffs, or to heal nagging injuries are in the back of your mind. This is why I risk drastically less in the final weeks of the season, and zero in Week 17. That being said, we can still find success by looking for teams that are not eliminated from playoff contention, and playing in competitive match-ups. Enter Davante Adams. With nearly 100 targets on the year, 900 yards and 9 touchdowns, Adams has been a fantasy force. This week he plays the Bears in divisional matchup with only cold weather as a concern. Look for Adams’ to continue his banner year versus a weak secondary.

9 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO (primarily a deep route runner)

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Sun)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 5: -1 AO

Totals: $6,100 / 10 AO = $610 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

2) Mike Wallace - DK Salary $4,800

Mike Wallace is always a frustrating player to pick in DFS or season-long leagues. That being said, I am rolling with him versus the Eagles this week for three main reasons. First, his skill set has a strong matchup versus a secondary that is vulnerable off the top. Second, he has been more than just a burner this season, with his four 10-plus target games, and 101 on the season. Finally, his salary is only $4,800. For those three main reasons, I believe Wallace and his adjusted 8 targets are well worth a dart throw this week versus the Eagles.

9 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO

B) Weather Adjustment: -1 AO (Light Rain)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 5: -1 AO

Totals: $4,800 / 8 AO= $600 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

3) Terrelle Pryor - DK Salary $5,200

With 116 targets, Pryor has been one of the Browns only weapons in what will be a forgettable season. This week Pryor plays the Bills, and more specifically he plays Ronald Darby, a corner who ranks top 20 in most fantasy points allowed per route run. Moreover, they are expected to be down by a whopping 11 points, and should have no choice but to chuck the rock. This bodes well for a player with a 16-yard average depth of target. Look for Pryor to bounce back after last weeks rough game, and get a number of opportunities to succeed.

9 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO

B) Weather Adjustment: -2 AO (Snow)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down 11: +4 AO

Totals: $5,200 /12 AO= $433 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

4) Jamison Crowder- DK Salary $5,400

Despite struggling his last week, I like Crowder to get back on track versus Carolina. They have a terrible pass defense, Vegas expects 51 points scored, the weather is clear and Kirk Cousins is hot. Since Week 10, no quarterback has scored more fantasy points except Aaron Rodgers. Crowder should be a main beneficiary of this, as his 90 targets on the season shows.

7 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Clear)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% AO The panthers are yielding the 6th most fantasy points to WR in the league. Moreover, Crowder plays the slot position and Carolina’s slot corner Leonard Johnson has been particular vulnerable, allowing 77% of his targets to be caught.

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down be up 5: -1 AO

Totals: $5,400 / 9 AO = $600 per adjusted opportunity (AO)