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Sean Holler | Archive | Email  
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DFS University: DPAO Wide Receiver Picks for Week 17
12/30/16


Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible. The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent. As mentioned in my previous articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each week is more so a result of targets. And failing that – Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary, helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.

Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700 per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.


Golden Tate

Golden Tate has 40 targets and 28 catches in his last four games making him a solid Week 17 play.


Week 16 DPAO picks

1) Top Pick – Golden Tate DK Salary $6,600

As I have mentioned before, picking players in Week 15 and beyond can be a dicey endeavor. That being said, if you stick to “must-win” games, you can find teams that are in no position to rest starters, or take their foot off the gas. Enter the Lions versus the Packers this weekend - a game with both teams playoffs hopes on the line. With Vegas expecting 50 points to be scored, and the game being played in a dome, DFS players can expect the ball to be thrown. And with 122 targets on the season, look for the Lions to involve Tate early and often. This is an ideal game for Tate as the Packers will have difficulty stopping him with cover corner Demarious Randall, a player who has had his struggles in coverage this season.

8 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Dome)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment:
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 5: +2 AO

Totals: $6,600 / 11 AO = $600 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

2) J.J. Nelson - DK Salary $4,600

With 19 targets in the last two games, it is clear the Cardinals are trying to see what they have in Nelson. The departure of Floyd has freed up a number of targets that Coach Bruce Arians is clearly comfortable using on Nelson, and with their playoff hopes already over, there is no reason that shouldn’t continue Week 17. The Rams have given up the 2nd most points to WRs this season and they struggle to contain this very type of speedy WR (4.28 - 40 yard dash). Look for Arians to continue to target Nelson and for the Rams to struggle yet again containing a strong late season passing attack.

7 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: + 1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 6: -2 AO

Totals: $4,600 / 5 AO= $657 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

3) Doug Baldwin - DK Salary $7,200

Baldwin is a very difficult WR to predict because he is incredibly streaky. Moreover, my DPAO model does not like him very much because he typically finds success with very few targets. This makes him almost impossible to recommend using anything other than “gut-feeling” and for to him to be in a constant fight to justify his often lofty prize tag week to week. Last week however, Baldwin set a career high in targets (19) and is only 3 receptions away from setting the franchise record. On top of this, he is playing the 49ers, a team that has allowed a whopping 21 touchdowns to the position. With Lockett out with a knee injury and Seattle clearly driving his targets to Baldwin, this might be one of the only weeks I can safely recommend Baldwin despite his insane dollar per opportunity. Take a chance on him this week and look for another double digit target game.

11 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment:
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up 9: -2 AO

Totals: $7,800 /10 AO= $780 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

4) Allen Robinson- DK Salary $5,500

Featured as my start of the week last week, Robinson posted a healthy 9 catches for 147 yards - going over 100 yards for just the second time this season. This week he plays the Colts, another divisional opponent that has had trouble stopping opposing WRs and a team he had modest success against in Week 4 (5 catches). His success will always be tied to his volatile and often struggling QB play, but at $5,500, he is a WR1 on a team that often finds itself in throwing situations. Plus, he is averaging nearly 10 targets per game making Robinson a relatively high floor, high upside option to help round out a lineup.

10 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Dome)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment:
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down be down 4: +1 AO

Totals: $5,500 / 13 AO = $423 per adjusted opportunity (AO)