Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted
Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as
many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible.
The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent.
As mentioned in my previous
articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each
week is more so a result of targets. And failing that –
Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these
three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary,
helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.
Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you
to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not
have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700
per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and
that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.
Golden Tate has 40 targets and 28 catches
in his last four games making him a solid Week 17 play.
As I have mentioned before, picking players in Week 15 and beyond
can be a dicey endeavor. That being said, if you stick to “must-win”
games, you can find teams that are in no position to rest starters,
or take their foot off the gas. Enter the Lions versus the Packers
this weekend - a game with both teams playoffs hopes on the line.
With Vegas expecting 50 points to be scored, and the game being
played in a dome, DFS players can expect the ball to be thrown.
And with 122 targets on the season, look for the Lions to involve
Tate early and often. This is an ideal game for Tate as the Packers
will have difficulty stopping him with cover corner Demarious
Randall, a player who has had his struggles in coverage this season.
8 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Dome)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment:
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 5: +2
AO
Totals: $6,600 / 11 AO = $600 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
With 19 targets in the last two games, it is clear the Cardinals
are trying to see what they have in Nelson. The departure of Floyd
has freed up a number of targets that Coach Bruce Arians is clearly
comfortable using on Nelson, and with their playoff hopes already
over, there is no reason that shouldn’t continue Week 17.
The Rams have given up the 2nd most points to WRs this season
and they struggle to contain this very type of speedy WR (4.28
- 40 yard dash). Look for Arians to continue to target Nelson
and for the Rams to struggle yet again containing a strong late
season passing attack.
7 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: + 1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 6: -2
AO
Totals: $4,600 / 5 AO= $657 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
Baldwin is a very difficult WR to predict because he is incredibly
streaky. Moreover, my DPAO model does not like him very much because
he typically finds success with very few targets. This makes him
almost impossible to recommend using anything other than “gut-feeling”
and for to him to be in a constant fight to justify his often
lofty prize tag week to week. Last week however, Baldwin set a
career high in targets (19) and is only 3 receptions away from
setting the franchise record. On top of this, he is playing the
49ers, a team that has allowed a whopping 21 touchdowns to the
position. With Lockett out with a knee injury and Seattle clearly
driving his targets to Baldwin, this might be one of the only
weeks I can safely recommend Baldwin despite his insane dollar
per opportunity. Take a chance on him this week and look for another
double digit target game.
11 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment:
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up 9: -2 AO
Totals: $7,800 /10 AO= $780 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
Featured as my start of the week last week, Robinson posted a
healthy 9 catches for 147 yards - going over 100 yards for just
the second time this season. This week he plays the Colts, another
divisional opponent that has had trouble stopping opposing WRs
and a team he had modest success against in Week 4 (5 catches).
His success will always be tied to his volatile and often struggling
QB play, but at $5,500, he is a WR1 on a team that often finds
itself in throwing situations. Plus, he is averaging nearly 10
targets per game making Robinson a relatively high floor, high
upside option to help round out a lineup.
10 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Dome)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment:
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down be down
4: +1 AO
Totals: $5,500 / 13 AO = $423 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)