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Sean Holler | Archive | Email  
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DFS University: DPAO Wide Receiver Picks for Week 4
9/30/16


Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible. The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent. As mentioned in my previous articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each week is more so a result of targets. And failing that – Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary, helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.

Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700 per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.


Week 3 DPAO Review



Is there anything better in this world than Marvin Jones on a Sunday in 2016? This guy is better than sunlight, cherry pie, and those head scratcher things - combined. I feel especially good about this, because I have been yelling his name into a megaphone for the past three weeks. He is making me look very good.

Tajae Sharpe however - he has gotsta go. I’ve given up. He is getting the targets, but there is something wrong with the Tennessee offense. And even when the offense is functioning at its highest level, it is still a run first offense that features a lot of Delanie Walker. Even though we are only paying $500 per opportunity for him, I think we can do better.

My Week 3 pick of Travis Benjamin did not disappoint terribly, gaining 82 yards on 4 catches. However, the fumble was no bueno.

The only person I love more than Michael Crabtree this year in DFS, is the aforementioned Marvin Jones. You will see in the line-up above that I had budget insecurity (too much money left on the table), and I “upgraded” from Crabtree to Amari Cooper. How did this go over? Well, Crabtree caught 8-of-11 targets for 102 yards, and as you can see, this was much better than Cooper.

Try not to get budget anxiety. It just so happens DPAO picks often lack the splash plays necessary for driving up salary, but quietly produce over the course of the year and are thus more affordable. Select the best line-up you believe will win, no matter the salary you have left over. Leave the surplus salary on the table or push it to the other positions. Trust the system.

All in all, the model has successfully produced another week with a Draftkings 99% win rate. Honestly, I think we should throw DPAO out the window and just call it the Marvin Jones model, because he is the exact player we are looking for, and the exact sort of guy the model finds: undervalued players, who get a ton of opportunities to produce.

Marvin Jones

No.1 WR: Marvin Jones is pushing the range of his value but remains a great DFS play in Week 4.


Week 4 DPAO picks

1) Marvin Jones - DK Salary $7,200

There’s a few things you can count on: death, taxes, and Marvin Jones’ salary increasing weekly on Draftkings. Does he still make sense as a pick? Are we overpaying for his opportunities now? Well, after some analysis, it turns out he might still be worth it. He is getting an average of 10 targets per game, with an average aDOT (average depth of target) above 14, and playing in sunny weather. He is a bit on the steep side (above $600 per adjusted opportunity) however he has not let us down yet. Let it be noted that he is no longer a value play. This is a premium price to pay per opportunity, and if his salary climbs any higher, we should not pick him as he has remained steady at 11 AO per game.

10 projected opportunities

Adjustments:

A) aDOT Adjustment: + 1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (mix of sun and clouds expected)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to up by 0-5: -1 AO

Totals: $7,200 / 11 AO = $650 per adjusted opportunity

2) Mike Evans – DK Salary $6,500

Okay, I can hear it now: “He is playing Denver?! Are you insane Sean?!” The answer is yes I am. Maybe I am a little crazy but hear me out. The Denver corners play to their sides of the field. They do not do shadow coverage typically. And what side does Mike Evans play on? Bradley Roby’s side. And how has Bradley Roby been doing? Not good. He is currently the 100th ranked corner on Profootball Focus with a grade of 38.5 out of 100 over three games. If there is any way Tampa is going to win this game, it is going to be by picking on the only weak spot in this incredible Denver defense. Mike Evans gets an average of 12 targets per game, runs with a 16 yard average depth of target, and Jameis Winston acts like the ball is a heat-seeking missile, and Mike Evans is a pizza pocket fresh out of the microwave. You read that correctly, Mike Evans is a DPAO bargain this week.

12 projected opportunities

Adjustments:

A) aDOT Adjustment: +1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: -1 AO (light drizzle)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% (They are not going to throw at Chris Harris Jr. in the slot, and those targets are going elsewhere).
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 0-5: +1 AO

Totals: $6,500 /15 AO = $433 per adjusted opportunity. Wow.

3) Michael Crabtree - DK Salary $6,400

I love Michael Crabtree. I’ve made this clear. Don’t upgrade to Amari Cooper. Just let it happen. The guy delivers, for less.

8 projected opportunities

Adjustments:

A) aDOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO Full Sun/ Dome
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% (DB Shareece Wright is so bad they are going to drive targets to Crabtree). Expect an all out air assault on the Baltimore defense.
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 0-5: +1 AO

Totals: $6,400 / 12 AO= $533 per adjusted opportunity

4) Will Fuller – DK Salary $5,300

This guy is an animal. His average depth of target is above 20, he gets an average of 8 targets per game and he is facing a very permeable Tennessee secondary. This will be very interesting, as Nuk Hopkins is set to line up versus Perrish Cox, and after he runs through him like water on a cheese grater, expect safety help. With all of the attention on Hopkins, look for Fuller to take advantage.

8 projected opportunities

Adjustments:

A) aDOT Adjustment: +1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO Full Sun/ Dome
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 0-5: -1 AO

Totals: $5,300/ 9 AO = $588 per adjusted opportunity