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Sean Holler | Archive | Email  
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DFS University: DPAO Wide Receiver Picks for Week 6
10/13/16


Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible. The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent. As mentioned in my previous articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each week is more so a result of targets. And failing that – Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary, helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.

Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700 per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.


If Sammie Coates (hand) suits up, he's just as good a play against Miami as we was against the Jets.


Week 6 DPAO picks

1) Sammie Coates - DK Salary $4,700

While normally thought of as a “home-run” hitter because of his inconsistent hands and incredible speed, Coates is averaging nearly 10 targets per game since becoming a consistent WR2 on the Pittsburgh offense. At first this feels slightly like point chasing, but the evidence suggests another big game. Miami has had a Swiss cheese secondary since the first week of the season. Look for Coates and his deep routes to pass through it like water.

10 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO (currently an average depth of target of 19.2)
B) Weather Adjustment: -1 AO (light drizzle)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by more than 7: -2 AO

Totals: $4,700 / 8 AO = $587 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

2) Will Fuller – DK Salary $5,900

Last year when the two teams met, DeAndre Hopkins set a career high in catches (11) versus the Colts. I imagine that is still burned in their memories and they will look to limit him. Adding to this, Texans head coach Bill O’Brien has said this week that the offense must target their Pro Bowl receiver at a higher rate. With all of this focus on Hopkins, look for Fuller to again remind everyone that the Texans now have two WR1’s that command respect. He is having one hell of a rookie season and I don’t see that slowing down this week against an injury depleted secondary.
8 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Dome)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% AO (Look for Vontae Davis to shadow Deandre Hopkins and displace some targets onto Will Fuller)
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 3: -1 AO

Totals: $5,900/ 10 AO= $590 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

3) Jarvis Landry - DK Salary $6800

The only way Miami stays in this game versus Pittsburgh is if they throw the ball - a lot. Game script is incredibly important when searching for WR value. It works through two channels: first by forcing the team that is down to throw the ball, and second, by forcing the team that is up to play softer coverage. Jarvis “Juice” Landry runs with an average depth of target of 7.7 yards. He is an excellent underneath route runner and will be used extensively when Miami finds themselves in catch-up mode.

10 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: -1 AO (light drizzle)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to down by over 7: +2 AO

Totals: $6,800 /11 AO= $618 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

4) Terrelle Pryor - DK Salary $6,100

Averaging nearly 8 targets per game, Terrelle Pryor has become a true WR1, and one of the only sparks in the Cleveland offense. Again, he is looking at a positive game script, with limited ability on the other side to stop him. While Tennessee has been a better than expected defensive unit, Pryor has been a MUCH better than expected weapon for Cleveland. He runs with a high average depth of target, he runs the ball of the backfield, he throws, and he is a terrific red zone weapon. In order for Cleveland to win, they will have to get Pryor involved.

7 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full Sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 7: +2 AO

Totals: $6,100/ 11 AO = $554 per adjusted opportunity (AO)