Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted
Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as
many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible.
The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent.
As mentioned in my previous
articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each
week is more so a result of targets. And failing that –
Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these
three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary,
helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.
Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you
to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not
have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700
per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and
that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.
If Sammie Coates (hand) suits up, he's
just as good a play against Miami as we was against the Jets.
While normally thought of as a “home-run” hitter
because of his inconsistent hands and incredible speed, Coates
is averaging nearly 10 targets per game since becoming a consistent
WR2 on the Pittsburgh offense. At first this feels slightly like
point chasing, but the evidence suggests another big game. Miami
has had a Swiss cheese secondary since the first week of the season.
Look for Coates and his deep routes to pass through it like water.
10 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO (currently an average depth of target
of 19.2)
B) Weather Adjustment: -1 AO (light drizzle)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by more than
7: -2 AO
Totals: $4,700 / 8 AO = $587 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
Last year when the two teams met, DeAndre Hopkins set a career
high in catches (11) versus the Colts. I imagine that is still
burned in their memories and they will look to limit him. Adding
to this, Texans head coach Bill O’Brien has said this week
that the offense must target their Pro Bowl receiver at a higher
rate. With all of this focus on Hopkins, look for Fuller to again
remind everyone that the Texans now have two WR1’s that
command respect. He is having one hell of a rookie season and
I don’t see that slowing down this week against an injury
depleted secondary.
8 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Dome)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% AO (Look for Vontae
Davis to shadow Deandre Hopkins and displace some targets onto
Will Fuller)
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 3: -1
AO
Totals: $5,900/ 10 AO= $590 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
The only way Miami stays in this game versus Pittsburgh is if
they throw the ball - a lot. Game script is incredibly important
when searching for WR value. It works through two channels: first
by forcing the team that is down to throw the ball, and second,
by forcing the team that is up to play softer coverage. Jarvis
“Juice” Landry runs with an average depth of target
of 7.7 yards. He is an excellent underneath route runner and will
be used extensively when Miami finds themselves in catch-up mode.
10 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: -1 AO (light drizzle)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to down by over 7:
+2 AO
Totals: $6,800 /11 AO= $618 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
Averaging nearly 8 targets per game, Terrelle Pryor has become
a true WR1, and one of the only sparks in the Cleveland offense.
Again, he is looking at a positive game script, with limited ability
on the other side to stop him. While Tennessee has been a better
than expected defensive unit, Pryor has been a MUCH better than
expected weapon for Cleveland. He runs with a high average depth
of target, he runs the ball of the backfield, he throws, and he
is a terrific red zone weapon. In order for Cleveland to win,
they will have to get Pryor involved.
7 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full Sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 7: +2
AO
Totals: $6,100/ 11 AO = $554 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)