Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted
Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as
many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible.
The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent.
As mentioned in my previous
articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each
week is more so a result of targets. And failing that –
Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these
three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary,
helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.
Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you
to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not
have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700
per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and
that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.
Mike Evans should be a prime target in
cash games with a total of 59 targets in just five games.
Normally a player with a Draft Kings salary of $7,800, would
have a difficult time getting on a DFS bargain hunting article.
However, Mike Evans is no mortal player. In just five games he
has an insane 59 targets, has scored a touchdown versus every
team he has played except Denver, and is running an average depth
of target of 17.4 yards. In all three aforementioned categories
(ADOT, TD, and targets), he is at least top 8 in the NFL. Evans
is having an incredible start and with Vincent Jackson recently
damaging his knee, even more targets should be headed toward Evans.
Plug him in your lineups versus San Francisco and pay a roster
friendly $600 per adjusted opportunity.
12 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (mix of clouds and sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up 1: -1 AO
Totals: $7,800/ 13 AO = $600 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
I shudder to think that I am recommending Mike Wallace right now.
This guy has burned me more times than a Western University “Hot
and Ready” pizza - and those things are literally liquid
hot magma on dough. But the Mike Wallace revival experiment in
Baltimore seems to be working out and he is worth your consideration
this week. He is receiving a healthy 8 targets per game, running
with a high average depth of target, and best of all he is facing
the Jets leaky secondary. Moreover, it looks as though Joe Flacco
will play this weekend and Steve Smith will not.
8 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full Sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 2: +1
AO
Totals: $5,800/ 11 AO= $527 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
A regular in this column, Michael Crabtree has been a DFS gem
this year. However, last week he disappointed owners with just
10 yards on 4 targets. And while that would normally be alarming,
it looks as though it was an “outlier” performance
as the whole Oakland offense was struggling to get anything going.
I don’t see this game versus Jacksonville going the same
way. Furthermore, in the past few games the Jaguars have used
Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage, and while he has given up some
big plays, he still a very young and talented player who will
pester Amari Cooper instead of Crabtree. Look for Carr to drive
targets to Crabtree like old times and for the whole Oakland offense
to get back on track versus a middle of the road Jacksonville
defense.
10 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full Sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% AO
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 1.5:
+1 AO
Totals: $6,600 /13 AO= $507 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
Averaging nearly 9 opportunities per game, Allen Robinson is getting
the requisite number of looks to crack the top 24 fantasy wide
receiver list. However, he has only connected with Bortles on
24/44 balls thrown his way. I believe this is a symptom of a greater
disease infecting the Jags offense that they are starting to shake
off. On top of this, Robinson is continuing to be targeted on
deep routes, is matching up with Raiders corner Sean Smith instead
of David Amerson (see below), and the game is projected to be
close. I like Robinson to crack 100 yards in a game for the first
time this season.
9 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full Sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% AO David
Amerson is a very, very good corner. In fact, he is the 6th
ranked corner on Pro Football Focus with an incredible score of
86.3/100. Sean Smith on the other hand, while talented, has given
up a number of big plays. Robinson will be going against Smith
for most of the day and should exploit the match up.
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up 1: -1 AO
Totals: $7,300/ 12 AO = $608 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
