Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible. The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent. As mentioned in my previous articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each week is more so a result of targets. And failing that – Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary, helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.

Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700 per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.

Cover boy again. Mike Evans is in another good spot facing the burnable Oakland Raiders secondary.

1) Mike Evans - DK Salary $8,100

Headlining this piece yet again is Fantasy Football stalwart Mike Evans. Despite his increasing price tag ($8,100), he is still being fed an average of 12 targets per game. Furthermore, this Sunday versus Oakland, he is playing at home in sunny weather, lining up against burn victim CB Sean Smith, and will be running his standard deep routes. Look for him to exploit Oakland’s weak secondary and receive an adjusted 15 opportunities, making him a great DPAO pick.

12 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO (currently an average depth of target of 17+)

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full sun)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment:

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down 1: +1 AO

Totals: $8,100/ 15 AO = $540 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

2) Will Fuller – DK Salary $6,000

A lot of people are reaching for Deandre Hopkins this week as the Lions are allowing opponents to complete nearly 75 percent of their passes (ranked 32nd) for a 117.3 passer rating against (also 32nd), while also allowing opponents to convert 51.2 percent of third downs (32nd). Adding to this, Darius Slay, not only their best corner but also one of the leagues best CBa will be out. I agree we need to take advantage of this appalling Lions pass defense, but I think Fuller is the better way to go. He costs $1,200 less, receives a similar number of targets, runs deeper routes, and in my opinion has shown better chemistry with Brock Osweiler.
9 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Mix of sun and cloud)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 0-5: -1 AO

Totals: $6,000/ 10 AO= $600 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

3) Michael Crabtree - DK Salary $6,700

I think I can make writing this article very easy on myself by just including Crabtree each week, and filling it out like a template. I might as well because I have only removed him from this series once. I have no idea what is going on in Oakland this year, why Draftkings continually undervalues him, or when this gravy train will end. Until that day however, I am riding Crabtree to weekly DFS wins. I see this game as a similar situation to last week - where Jacksonville’s Jalen Ramsey gave Amari Cooper some difficulty and in turn drove targets to Crabtree. This week Cooper draws coverage from Vernon Hargraves, another young standout that might give him fits as well.

10 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full Sun)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% AO

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 0-5: -1 AO

Totals: $6,700 /11 AO= $609 per adjusted opportunity (AO)

4) Larry Fitzgerald – DK Salary $7,500

This guy refuses to quit. For years I have been “predicting” the decline of Larry Fitzgerald for a multitude of reasons. Not only have I been wrong about his decline, but I also clearly did not predict his actual improvement. He is yet again, a top 10 WR, a target vacuum, and finding the end zone… all at the age of 33. Moreover, he is averaging nearly 10 targets per game, predicted be down, and playing in great weather. Look for Fitzgerald to take advantage of Carolina’s depleted and inexperienced secondary and for Arizona to lean on the passing game versus Carolina’s stout front-7.

10 projected targets

Adjustments:

A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A

B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Sun and clouds)

C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment:

D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 0-5: +1 AO

Totals: $7,300/ 12 AO = $625 per adjusted opportunity (AO)