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Monday Morning Buzz - Wk 13
12/3/07

Antonio Gates We all know about the Madden Curse and its longstanding history of doom for players. Well, how about the Buzz Curse? Last week, we preached about the virtues of having Antonio Gates on your team. Throughout the week I received e-mails from 77 different Antonio Gates owners who shared with me their stories of success and failure (mostly success) with Gates on their roster this season. The respondents’ combined record: 632-289-3—a pretty good winning percentage. Now, granted it is not a representative sample as many of the guys still tuning in to fantasy articles this time of year are guys that are doing well; however, I think it’s safe to say that my theories regarding the “Gates Tax” were primarily correct.

This week: Antonio Gates: 1 catch, -1 yards receiving. So whom are we going to curse in terms of next week’s production? Do you believe in curses? If not, here’s the Buzz for the week- simply read and enjoy. But, if you do, you might want to proceed with caution...

The Top Fantasy Choices At Quarterback On Sunday

Luke McCown and Gus Frerotte. That’s right, it’s not a misprint or a joke. It is what it is. But, what does it mean?

In the real estate business, the slogan when determining the long-range value of property is “Location, Location, Location”. If you’ve ever bought a house, some realtor has probably uttered that obnoxious triplet a dozen times or more in trying to convince you what and whatnot to buy.

Well, it’s the same in December when it comes to fantasy football: Location, Location, Location. Or, to put it another way: Weather, Weather, Weather. Luke McCown and Gus Frerotte played in the comfort of domed stadiums today. It’s no great shocker, thus, that they ended up with the two highest yardage totals of any quarterback today. As you look over your potential playoff lineups in the next week or so, consider which quarterbacks and wide receivers play in domes or warm weather environments. Weather isn’t a huge deal in fantasy football until you get to December. We’re there. Here are some guys to consider next week when looking at the location factor:

Tony Romo plays in Detroit in Week 14. Start him at QB, RB, WR, and whatever else position you can. Heck, even make him your starting team defense.

Drew Brees is in Atlanta’s dome in Week 14. Don’t leave him on the bench.

On the flip side, you have guys like Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb, and Jay Cutler who play in potentially hazardous December conditions. Don’t bench Brady even if he’s playing in a hurricane at this point. As for other QBs in poor locations in December, take it into consideration. Take the wide receivers who play with those QBs into consideration, too.

It Helps To Know A Little History

Joey Galloway is a Saint killer. Galloway’s history of torching the boys from New Orleans is well documented. It’s not quite as pronounced as the terror Jamal Lewis used to inflict upon the Browns when he played for Baltimore, but it’s close. This week: 159 yards from Galloway and he should have had a touchdown (they called him down at the one millimeter line).

My point is that divisional rivals play each other enough that patterns can be analyzed a bit: Giants-Eagles, Dolphins-Bills, Seahawks-Cardinals, Chiefs-Broncos, and Saints-Falcons. All these teams have played each other once already this season. Go back and take a look at what happened in those games. Look at the games between the teams during the 2006 season. After all, it’s playoff time. Leave no stone unturned. This week’s Joey Galloway could be somebody on your roster.

Dynasty/Keeper League Gems Come From Unexpected Places

You would have laughed out loud eight weeks ago if I had brought up the following names in the same sentence as the word “keeper”, but you can’t laugh it off now:

My, how the fantasy landscape can change in the blink of an eye. Of these three, Graham probably has the most clouded future as he plays on the same team as Carnell Williams and could end up splitting time with Cadillac next year at best. Grant and Fargas, however, are playing so well that it’s hard to imagine either one losing their starting gig anytime soon and that includes next season.

Back to the here and now: These three guys have got to be in starting lineups by now. Their numbers continue to be as consistent as any RB in the league over the past month as they combined for 405 yards and 4 touchdowns in Week 13 and scored in most formats at least 60 fantasy points.

Bottom line: If you can only keep one player on your roster from year to year, these probably aren’t your guys. But, if you can keep 3 or more, you better give it some serious thought. Good, young running backs that get lots of carries each and every week are hard to find.

The “Stud” Wide Receivers Rise To The Top

It’s becoming pretty obvious which wide outs you want in your lineup as the fantasy playoffs begin heating up. Terrell Owens is a no-brainer. There’s not a hotter wide receiver around. Reggie Wayne? Defenses know that without Marvin Harrison, he’s the guy to key on and yet he’s putting up big numbers anyway. Braylon Edwards was questionable to even play this week. That’s what I call rising to the challenge. These three guys had great performances in Week 13 and look like guys that can get it done for your team in December.

But, you don’t read this for me to share the obvious. How about the semi-obvious, then? Roddy White is becoming a stud wide receiver. Need me to say it again? The Atlanta Falcons have drafted more wide receivers early on in the NFL Draft in the past five years than any other team sans the Detroit Lions. It would appear they got it right with this guy. White’s numbers continue to get better and better each week and this week’s totals (146 receiving yards and a touchdown) were beyond solid- they were stellar.

Interesting stuff.

Random Buzz:

  • Good day to be Adrian Peterson on Sunday. The high-octane version returned to action with a couple of touchdowns and 100+ yards on the ground. The blue-collar version put up solid totals for the Bears with well over 100 yards combined. Both look like good plays as the fantasy season moves forward from here.

  • Never start Kevin Jones again. Ever. The Lions simply can’t be trusted when it comes to the running game. I benched Jones on Thanksgiving and he was utilized and scored well. Started him today and he carried the ball 3 times for 1 yard. Mike Martz is dead to me.

  • Nice to see Thomas Jones reach the end zone today for the first time. Maybe some of that good fortune will move on to Willie Parker next...

Well, that’s it for this Monday morning. Hope you’ve enjoyed another edition of the Buzz and I hope if you’re an Antonio Gates owner, Week 13 was not the start of your playoffs. We’ll break down another big weekend this time next week and also begin looking at the bigger picture for those of you beginning to look to next year and make some sense out of what was the 2007 season. For those still alive, however, this time of the year is exciting and we’ll give you plenty to chew on as well. Stay warm out there and God Bless!