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Kirk Hollis | Archive | Email  
Staff Writer


Tuesday Morning Buzz
Fantasy Headlines from Week 4
10/6/15

Live from parts unknown, it’s Tuesday Morning! That means it’s time for our weekly dissection of what took place on the field from last Thursday evening until late, late Monday night. Scoring was down this week across the board, so you may have won some games with totals that look less than stellar. What caused the down-tick in production? Let’s examine…

Devonta Freeman

Didn't see that coming: Devonta Freeman is the top running back in fantasy football after four weeks.

The Diminutive, Dynamic Devonta

On a week where no huge individual performances took place, the second week of tremendous production from Falcons RB Devonta Freeman deserves top billing at the Buzz. And, as high as Freeman’s value has risen, it’s even higher in PPR leagues where he simply dominated on Sunday. It’s amazing how much better the Falcons’ offensive line is blocking this season and Freeman now forces defenses to respect the run in Atlanta. That change should continue to give Julio Jones big opportunities in the passing game despite his quiet Week Four performance. It also makes life easier for Matt Ryan, but could cut into his yardage numbers some as the Falcons are now more balanced. Look for Freeman to be spelled more when Tevin Coleman returns, but there’s no mistaking his potential in this dynamic offense. If you got him off the waiver wire after Week 1 or 2, you have found your diamond for this season. Congrats.

Don’t Give Up On Us, Baby

Three weeks does not a season make. And yet, sometimes, we fantasy owners panic when a proven player gets off to a slow start and looks like they’re not going to be a contributor all year long. Such was the case with Justin Forsett and Vincent Jackson coming into Week 4. Forsett ran for 150-plus yards and Jackson caught 10 balls for 147 yards and a touchdown. And both did that while sitting on a lot of fantasy benches. Truth be told, matchups determine a lot of what you see in September, so you have to be careful about sitting or even dropping a player too soon. Granted, there’s always a situation like Andre Johnson’s where you can see all you need to see in three weeks, but for the most part, if you draft a player coming off a very productive year, stick with him into October. That statement begs the question, however: What do I do with DeMarco Murray and C.J. Anderson? Answer: Both have very low trade values, so hang tight for another week or two at least. Murray is begging for the ball and Philly is 1-3. My guess is that he gets it in spades in Week 5. As for Anderson, he remains a low-end RB2 who just needs a goal line carry or two to get going.

The Great Awakening

I thought about mentioning the putrid St. Louis Rams offense last week, but decided that it was ultimately a waste of space. No offense had looked worse through three weeks and not much was expected in Week 4 in the desert. But, Todd Gurley turned into the Todd Gurley who played at Georgia, Nick Foles turned into Nick Foles, Touchdown Maker, and Tavon Austin flashed the kind of skill that made him such a high first round draft pick a couple of years ago. What does it all mean going forward? Well, the Rams’ offensive line is still one of the league’s worst, so don’t expect these type performances to become the norm. What you can expect is some high volume work for Gurley, who is clearly the Rams’ best option at running back and continued involvement from Austin, who soaked up some of Chris Givens’ old snaps on Sunday. Greatest Show on Turf, they are not…but at least there’s a steady pulse to be found in an offense most had written off prior to Sunday.

I Have Recently Been Placed in Charge of Garbage…

If you’re old enough to remember Coming to America, those were the words spoken by Eddie Murphy’s royal character, Prince Akeem. Garbage time in the NFL means very little in the real-world NFL, but it something that must be analyzed by fantasy analysts each and every week. And no one is benefitting more from garbage time than WRs Jeremy Maclin and DeAndre Hopkins. Combined, both wideouts are averaging over 100 yards and a TD per game, but almost all of their production is coming when the outcome of their game is no longer in doubt. It’s the same reason you don’t want RBs on teams that fall behind early (see Miller, Lamar). Really talented wide receivers on bad teams are able to easily carve up prevent defenses and pad their stats in spite of the quarterback throwing them the ball. As such, the better the opponent, the better the stat lines from Hopkins and Maclin are going to be. I know that defies common logic, but it is what it is and it cannot be ignored when analyzing lineup decisions from week to week.

It Matters Who the Touchdowns Go To…

I mentioned that scoring was down this week, and while those weeks happen in fantasy football at random, it seems, it typically means that TDs were vultured from more established players. Check out this list of TD scorers from this week: John Kuhn, Zac Stacy, Khiry Robinson, Roy Helu, Chris Polk, Charles Sims, Ronnie Hillman, Terron Ward, Duke Johnson, Michael Campanaro, Stedman Bailey, Brandon Tate, Eddie Royal, Dwayne Harris, Miles Austin, Riley Cooper, Allen Hurns, Kenny Stills, Kamar Aiken, Brent Celek, Ed Dickson, and the unforgettable Jake Stoneburner, just to name some. My point? When all of those players are getting TDs, many of the studs in actual starting lineups are not. Kuhn’s vulture of Eddie Lacy at the 1 yard-line is case in point. In fact, I’m going to blame the whole week on Kuhn. When he scores, nothing else good happens in fantasy football. And, no, I’m not a bitter Eddie Lacy owner.

Did All The Top Wide Receivers Conspire to Disappear in Week 4?

Probably not, but it sure seemed that way. The Falcons scored 40-plus points on Sunday, but Julio Jones only had three fantasy points? At least Antonio Brown had an excuse with Michael Vick throwing him the ball as he failed to eclipse the five-point barrier in standard scoring leagues for the first time in nearly three seasons (2012). Odell Beckham Jr.? Randall Cobb? Under five points. Several big names did bust through for better yardage totals, but no TDs. That list included Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Larry Fitzgerald, and Calvin Johnson whose omission from the TD column was the cruelest of them all. So, was this an anomaly or a sign of things to come? It's the former. As was noted previously, the touchdown makers in Week 4 had their day. Beckham, Brown, and Thomas have especially good matchups in Week 5 and should help to restore order to the universe.

Jeremy and Ivory...Together in Perfect Harmony

After Week 1, it appeared that Jeremy Hill and Chris Ivory were both headed for top-five seasons at the RB position after combining for four touchdowns and solid yardage totals. Then, Chris Ivory got hurt and Jeremy Hill couldn't hold on to the ball. Coming into Week 4, both were considered a risk, but if you stuck with them, they rewarded you on Sunday. Hill is barely averaging 3 yards a carry this season on exactly 50 attempts through four games. But, he has five touchdowns. Meanwhile, Ivory is averaging 5 yards a carry and doesn't have Giovani Bernard stealing touches. If Ivory can stay healthy, a career season is still very much within his grasp as he is running with reckless abandon. Hill's outlook doesn't look as rosy, but the Bengals are definitely a run-first team in the red zone, which keeps his value stable. All of this just goes to show how quickly things change in fantasy football. Week 4 saw Hill and Ivory benched for the likes of Joseph Randle and Chris Johnson. I doubt that will be repeated again this week.

If We Don't Give A Little Love to a Kicker…

We probably never will at the Buzz, at least this season. Anybody start Cairo Santos on Sunday? SEVEN field goals later, he got you more points than Aaron Rodgers did. I don't know if we should laud Santos as the next great thing in fantasy football or indict the Chiefs red-zone offense. Or maybe a little of both. Honorable mention goes to Chandler Catanzaro of Arizona who kicked five field goals. Ditto on the Arizona red zone offense. So, there you go kickers. Your one Buzz mention of 2015. If it had been a more dynamic scoring week, we never would have thought of you. Just sayin'.

That's a wrap for the Buzz. Can Devonta Freeman keep up his amazing run? Does the return of Brady and Gronk mean more points across the board in Week 5? And, will the biggest name wide receivers in the game figure out where the end zone is this week? Tune in next Tuesday and find out. We'll be right here waiting.