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Kirk Hollis | Archive | Email  
Staff Writer


Tuesday Morning Buzz
Fantasy Headlines from Week 15
12/20/16

The middle week of the fantasy playoff trifecta has come and gone, and just like last week, the landscape is littered with heroes, goats, and everything in between. It’s another edition of the Buzz, playoff-style…

The bounceback game for Brees (389-4) and Brandin Cooks (7-186-2) had a huge impact in Week 15.


Second Round Fantasy Playoff Heroes

Brees and Brandin’s Tidal Wave in the Desert

It is highly possible that if you own Drew Brees, you were eliminated from the playoffs last week as Brees continued his mini-slump by way of a second straight no-touchdown performance. It appears, though, that you can’t keep a great QB down for three weeks as Brees shredded a typically tougher Arizona defense Sunday to the tune of 389 yards and 4 TDs. Two of those scores went to Brandin Cooks, who nearly reached 200 yards receiving and had by far the best day of any wide receiver in action. Cooks has been a boom or bust guy for most of the year, but when he “booms”, he can carry fantasy teams on his back. Brees is known for that too, and in Week 15, these two stars were firing together on all cylinders. Here’s hoping you caught at least half the wave. If you had both on your team, you caught lightning in a bottle. And you’re probably playing for your league championship next weekend.

Opponent Matters: The Devonta Freeman Story

In other news from the NFC South, we bring you another case of how one week’s trash turns into next week’s treasure. That is not meant to disparage Devonta Freeman, who has had an excellent season and justified his draft position for the most part. It simply means that Freeman turned 18 yards from scrimmage and no touchdowns (Week 14) into 155 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 15. How did this happen? Not to over-simplify, but matchups in fantasy football continue to be bigger in scope than any individual player (more on that later). Freeman went from facing a stout Rams run defense to licking his chops against the Swiss cheese that is San Francisco. The 49ers inability to stop the run has become laughable, and Freeman took full advantage. As for who faces the 49ers next, it’s the Rams, so maybe there’s a pot of gold at the end of Todd Gurley’s rainbow this year. As if any Gurley owners are still around to tell about it…

He’s a Hero, Yes…But What Position Does He Play?

And, now we come to the very curious case of Ty Montgomery. Montgomery is still listed as a WR on most management sites, but Mike McCarthy has essentially declared him to be a RB. Montgomery averaged over 10 yards per carry vs. Chicago and ended up with 162 yards on the ground to go with a couple of scores. In the world of flexible lineups, Montgomery’s position may not matter much, but his value as a stand-alone RB is huge right now given how thin the position has become. If Montgomery found his way into your lineup on Sunday, you’ll remember his presence there for some time.

Shady, Zeke, and DJ - Sustaining Excellence

Unlike the Jekyll and Hyde nature of Brees and Freeman, three RBs just keep producing at a high level without pause. LeSean McCoy and Ezekiel Elliott combined for 357 yards and 3 TDs on Sunday, likely leading many a fantasy team to a berth in their league championship game. David Johnson, meanwhile, has now accounted for 100-plus yards in EVERY game this season to go along with averaging more than 1 TD per game. Along with Le’Veon Bell, these three RBs belong in a “stud” category all their own. They have re-instituted the running back position as relevant again, quieting the Zero-RB strategists for now. Maybe times aren’t changing so much as the top shelf talent at the position has returned.

Steady as She Goes…

Finally, a nod to those “heroes” who didn’t enjoy explosive performances, but did perform exactly as their owners hoped they would. At QB, we’ll submit to you Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, and Andrew Luck. At RB, kudos goes to Jordan Howard and Lamar Miller. And, at WR, Jordy Nelson did his usual work while Jarvis Landry and the returning Alshon Jeffery put together solid second half performances to give their teams a boost. All of these players minus Landry and Jeffery have displayed a recent consistency that makes them at least a “good” play in whatever matchup they inherit.

Second Round Fantasy Playoff Head-Scratchers

This category is reserved for guys that would have been “heroes” in Week 15…but very few if anyone probably had them in a starting lineup. They are as follows:

Matt Moore/Matt Barkley

Aside from Brees, few quarterbacks had better Sundays than the Matt’s of Miami and Chicago. Barkley's big day came at a price as he also tossed three interceptions, but unless your league counts off 3 or more points for INTs, you can probably live with the 362 yards passing and 2 touchdowns that he produced. Too bad no one likely had the guts to start Barkley despite his matchup being a good one. Another QB who took full advantage of a solid matchup was Matt Moore in Miami, who tossed as many TDs as any QB for the week. Moore is a career journeyman, but with the talent Miami has at WR, he came through in a big way. Kudos to you if you rolled the dice on him in a pinch.

Tyler Lockett/Ryan Mathews

While few started the Matt’s, some may have started Lockett and Mathews. If that was the case, you were rewarded and then some. Lockett was looked to early and often on Thursday night in Seattle and Mathews was a star with both Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood out of action. When both Lockett and Mathews are included in the offensive gameplan, both have shown themselves to be capable of games like this, particularly Mathews. But, both have brutal matchups in Week 16, so expect Week 15 to be their time in the spotlight for now. From the dynasty standpoint, though, Lockett's star is back on the rise.

Second Round Fantasy Playoff Goats

Tom Brady & Aaron Rodgers

It feels wrong to place Brady and Rodgers in this category. After all, Brady was up against a stingy Broncos defense this past weekend and Aaron Rodgers was nursing an injury. But, math is math and if you started either Brady or Rodgers, you didn't get a single touchdown pass from your starting QB - not a good thing on a fantasy playoff weekend. A friend of mine texted me this week asking if he should bench Brady due to his matchup and I expressed to him that he should stick with the guy who got him there. And, therein lies the dilemma during Weeks 14-16. How do you sit a Brady or a Rodgers? You would have been better off with Matt Moore or Matt Barkley, but could that have been predicted...by anyone? Fantasy football's rules of engagement are truly in the eye of the beholder.

AFC West Flame-Out

A lot of people were likely banking on the Chargers-Raiders game as a gold mine for elite fantasy production from a number of players. Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman appeared poised to expose a weak Raiders secondary while Amari Cooper was slated to get back on track with Derek Carr trying to keep up with Philip Rivers. And, Kenneth Farrow was in lineups everywhere as a sneaky good RB2 with upside. In the end, Farrow fumbled twice, Cooper caught one pass, and Tyrell Williams was held to less than 20 yards receiving. In most scoring formats, in fact, the top overall scorer coming out of this game was kicker, Sebastian Janikowski. As we've said before, the forecast sometimes calls for sunny skies, but rainfall breaks out instead. So it was in San Diego to the chagrin of many a fantasy players. So it was.

Thursday Night Running Backs

Todd Gurley was mentioned earlier and we'll include him in this section along with Seattle RB, Thomas Rawls. I'm not sure I've ever seen two running backs hit so much behind the line of scrimmage in a single game. Rawls appeared several weeks ago to be poised for a high-end playoff impact, but he's been anything but the last two weeks and shouldn't be a part of any Week 16 lineups from the Buzz's perspective. Gurley and Rawls are likely to be included in most of the Busts lists to come out over the next few weeks as pundits reflect on 2016. In Week 15, they took on that persona perfectly.

Disappearing “Elite” Wide Receivers

The last two weeks has been dismal for some of fantasy football's best wide receivers. Among those that have been held to single digits in scoring (non-PPR) both weeks are: Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, and the aforementioned Cooper. A.J. Green and Julio Jones have missed both weeks due to injury. Meanwhile, Week’s 14 and 15's top scoring WRs have included the likes of Tyreek Hill, Taylor Gabriel, Kenny Stills, J.J. Nelson, and Robby Anderson. Based on that and other things noted this week already, I would guess there have been some upsets in your league's playoffs. In fact, I don't have to guess. I know that to be a widespread reality.

So, what can we look for in Week 16 as owners seek to win championships? How about more of the same and a few things out of left field. Be sure to check out all of FFToday's predictive information this week. As for the Buzz, we'll wrap up next Tuesday with season awards and analysis. May you arrive at that day as a league champion! Buzz out.