One of the most difficult tasks in drafting a fantasy football
team is trying to decide between two players you think have identical
value. Knowing how to break a tie is important, as often a pick
comes down to a dilemma between Player A and Player B. The purpose
of this article is to not only identify pairs of players that
are considered of nearly equal value in 2023, but also take a
look at the process of solving those dilemmas.
Our second installment in this three-part series focuses on two
receivers whose careers are ascending and whose potential to exceed
consensus projections is a real possibility.
Once the top eight receivers have been taken in a redraft league,
these two wideouts will be on a very short list of best available.
The Strengths
Amon-Ra St. Brown is entering his third NFL season having topped
1,000 yards receiving for the first time last year. After a very
impressive 119 targets during his rookie season in 2021, St. Brown
was targeted by Jared Goff a whopping 146 times during his sophomore
season. Only eight WRs were targeted an average of 9 times a game
and St. Brown was one of them. He is seen as more of a possession
receiver than a deep burner, but his YPC was also up in 2022 as
he averaged a full yard more per catch than he did the year before.
There is a clear chemistry between St. Brown and Goff and with Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games, Goff is certain to lean
heavily on St. Brown for production. It’s also worth noting
that when T.J. Hockenson was still playing for Detroit last season,
St. Brown averaged 57 yards receiving per game. After Hockenson
was dealt to Minnesota, that figure increased to over 76 yards receiving
per game. The middle of the field is St. Brown’s domain and
Hockenson is still playing in Minnesota last time we checked.
On the flip side of this drafting dilemma is another player coming
off a breakout campaign. Garrett Wilson emerged as a rookie who
could easily separate from defenders and was targeted 147 times
as a result. The fact that he was only able to catch 83 of those
targets speaks volumes not about him, but about the quality of quarterback
in New York. Assuming the Jets continue to feature Wilson as the
primary option in their passing game (they will), he now has future
Hall of Famer and four-time league MVP, Aaron Rodgers throwing him
the ball. The fact that Wilson averaged over 13 yards a reception
without Rodgers is a testimony to what he’s capable of. And,
while the Jets are bringing in some new mouths to feed (Allen Lazard,
Mecole Hardman), none of them are a threat to Wilson’s status
or usage. Rodgers has turned several receivers into fantasy stars
during his tenure in the NFL. In Wilson’s case, he doesn’t
have to turn him into anything - Wilson’s rookie year qualifies
as outstanding already even in the midst of QB purgatory.
The Weaknesses
In the case of both St. Brown and Wilson, there is one glaring
weakness that impacted both players’ fantasy status in 2022. While
wide receivers like Davante
Adams, Ja’Marr
Chase, and A.J.
Brown all scored touchdowns on at least 10% of their receptions,
St. Brown scored on less than 6% and Wilson was even lower with
less than 5%. The Lions are especially fond of running inside
the ten-yard line as evidenced by Jamaal
Williams’s league-leading rushing TDs from a year ago. With
the same offensive scheme in place and a rookie tight end (Sam
LaPorta) with tremendous red zone potential also in the fold,
it’s difficult to see St. Brown’s TD totals creeping into the
double-digits. Keep in mind, Keenan
Allen has never scored more than 8 TDs in a season and has
actually averaged 5.2 per year since entering the league ten years
ago. St. Brown profiles as a healthy Keenan Allen in his prime
- which is to say that he has a high value floor, but also a ceiling
that will likely keep him out of the top 8 at the position, especially
in a non-PPR format.
Wilson will almost certainly improve on his touchdown totals
in 2023 (4 TDs). That said, Aaron Rodgers has been known to be
picky about who he utilizes in the red zone and near the goal
line, and Lazard might vulture some scores and (heaven forbid)
Randall Cobb might even steal a few. Sure, Christian Watson scored
7 TDs with Rodgers under center as a rookie, but five of those
came in a two-week stretch while Rodgers ghosted him the final
four weeks of the regular season. In the end, it’s almost
impossible to predict who Rodgers is going to trust near the end
zone just as it’s hard to know what sort of chemistry is
going to develop between him and Wilson. We know there’s
a solid chemistry between Goff and St. Brown. 196 receptions in
two years state that case rather succinctly. In Wilson’s
case, it’s all speculation.
The Verdict
So, what statistic do we look at to resolve this neck and neck
horse race between two outstanding pass catchers? Or, is there
something we can grasp via the eye test that will tip the scales
in one direction vs. another?
It’s easy to say that St. Brown is the obvious choice in
PPR leagues based on his having 23 more receptions than Wilson
last season, but keep in mind that targets for both receivers
were 147 and 146 respectively. And, Rodgers completed exactly
10% more of his throws than Wilson did which means an extra 14.7
receptions if you’re doing the math.
Assuming that receptions should not be the determining disparity
in this case, St. Brown passed the sophomore slump test with flying
colors and now enters the first year of what should be his most
productive years on the field.
Aaron Rodgers brings the upside and the fact that Wilson’s
2022 was so respectable without him gives us hope for a significant
leap forward in 2023.
So, what sort of drafter are you and what are you looking for
from your WR in the late second/early third round? If you want
the player with the higher floor, I would suggest that St. Brown
is your pick, especially with the Jameson Williams suspension
and the team breaking in a rookie tight end.
However, if you want to take a swing at someone who could be
top 3-5 at the position, Wilson is the recommended play. Either
way, these two WRs are going to make plenty of fantasy managers
happy this fall as both appear headed for their best seasons yet.
Projected 2022 Statistics:
