Stars can’t always win you a championship, the thinking goes, but they certainly can lose you one. I happen to agree, but I’d also submit there are players floating around out there on precious few radars who absolutely can net you the hardware. Don’t believe in such an all reward/no risk player? I’m guessing you aren’t one of the lucky few who owned Justin Forsett, C.J. Anderson, Jeremy Hill, or Odell Beckham Jr., then, backups who became starters who became stars in 2014. See my point? I know you do so I’m sure you’ll indulge me as we shift gears and talk about some prospects near the very bottom of those cheat sheets.

Quarterbacks

Johnny Manziel (CLE): How’s that old saw go? Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt? Similarly, Manziel would have been better off holding a clipboard all last season than taking a bunch of November/December snaps and proving what many already suspected early on, that he wasn’t anywhere near ready for the NFL. Things only got worse once the season ended as the troubled rook checked himself into rehab and reappeared several months later, hat in hand, publicly apologizing to Cleveland fans for his personal failures. Drafting a franchise-saving, Heisman trophy-winning quarterback should mean never having to hear “I’m sorry.”

Regardless, Johnny Football emerged from treatment a “changed man” and is back at Browns training camp, this time a humbled backup to the even less whelming Josh McCown. If this doesn’t sound like progress, consider that expectations are now essentially non-existent and the Manziel media circus has mostly moved on, allowing him to focus on his craft in relative anonymity. Moreover, his teammates seem to have completely bought into his newly discovered maturity, an important factor if he’s ever going to lead them on the field. Finally, he hasn’t looked too shabby through two weeks of the preseason. He’s scored in both games, once with his legs and once with his arm, and has looked much more comfortable running the Cleveland offense. It’s the preseason, but...baby steps, right?

Oh, I forgot the most important reason we shouldn’t completely ignore Manziel in 2015: McCown really stinks. It’s a question of when, not if Mike Pettine gives the former A&M star another shot and I suspect Manziel could reward that decision with some credible numbers. We’re not promising miracles here, but his raw play-making abilities give him a higher fantasy ceiling than most.

Sanchez's accuracy is a concern but he's a perfect fantasy QB to target in the late rounds of your draft.

Mark Sanchez (PHI) or Kirk Cousins (WAS): We already know what the fantasy ceiling for these guys is, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. If you’re even thinking about backup QBs before the season starts, you’re savvy enough to know predictability can be comforting when the shinola hits the fan. And that’s exactly what could happen in Philadelphia this season if Sam Bradford never to be mistaken for an NFL ironmen, goes down.

I turned you on to Sanchez in this exact same spot last year, reasoning he was one injury away from commanding Chip Kelly’s rocket ship offense and could, presumably, put up great numbers if that happened. It did and he did…sort of. Though he faltered when it mattered most (fantasy playoff stretch), Sanchez still managed to post a career best 21.3 points per game. That wasn’t enough to earn him the job in 2015 and Bradford easily won the “open competition” in training camp. Though I think Coach Kelly’s got some Tebow tricks up his sleeve this year, Sanchez is the clear No.2 and could, if Bradford goes down, end up right where he was in 2014, under center for the Eagles.

It’s already hit the fan in Washington. Robert Griffin III has been benched and the season hasn't even started. Kirk Cousins was way more erratic than Sanchez in relief of RGIII last year, eventually losing his job to career plugger Colt McCoy halfway through a Week 7 contest against Tennessee. Erratic in real life did not equate to erratic in fantasy life, however, as he also averaged a tidy 21.3 points per game, never scoring fewer than 18.1 until that abbreviated stint against the Titans. Cousins has way more upside than the athletically limited McCoy and is preferred by the head coach.

Ryan Mallett (HOU): Where have all the promising young backups gone, the quarterbacking stars-in-waiting that used to spend years holding clipboards while learning the intricacies of the position from older pros? Simply put, ain’t nobody got time for that. It’s a win-now-or-else league and franchise QBs are expected to start earning their keep sooner rather than later, scary steep learning curve be damned. That’s left us with a motley assortment of journeymen, way-over-the-hill mentor types, and so-called “projects” filling out the remaining slots on QB depth charts.

Mallett’s been in the league long enough to be considered a journeyman, but he’s also very much a project, much like the first guy we talked about, Johnny Manziel. If Manziel’s flaw has been a lack of overall preparation and readiness for the pro game, Mallett’s seems to be his maddening inconsistency. He’s got great natural ability (enviable size, can make all the throws), but hasn’t been able to harness it often enough to earn the trust of coaches. Of course, he and Manziel also share a rather dubious distinction: They’ve both been beaten out for starting jobs by Brian Hoyer.

The Texans tagged Hoyer as their opening day starter this past week by pointing to the former Brown’s experience and consistency. They seem to be conveniently ignoring the fact he’s barely started a season’s worth of games in a six-year career and has been consistently rotten. Of QBs who started 10 or more games last season, only Geno Smith was worse on a per-game basis. This just in: Josh McCown and Blake Bortles also started more than 10 games last year. I’d be shocked if Mallett doesn’t end up starting multiple games in 2015. Whether he’s relevant for us is going to be totally up to him. Keep him on your radar.

Running Backs

Ryan Mathews (PHI): The bell cow back has almost gone the way of the dodo bird and there are now a whole host of RB2s (and even RB3s) that regularly contribute to the fantasy bottom line. Some do that by spelling the main man every several series. Others do so primarily on third down or near the goal line, more situational subs. Still others garner so many touches that it’s almost pointless to call them backups. Mathews should be part of this last, more valuable, group in 2015 and health permitting may end up being the most valuable of them all.

I could go on and on about the “explosivity” of Chip Kelly’s offense (and have…and will), but what should really excite Mathews’ owners this year is that they can A) get him on the cheap, and B) get more out of him than he usually delivered in San Diego. Though many were mystified by Kelly’s decision to sever ties with Shady McCoy, it’s clear he had the bigger picture in mind. Instead of a single, east-west lightweight carrying the ball over 300 times a year, he wanted two sturdier, north-south brutes who could share the load 65/35-style. Two men sharing one man’s pie doesn’t usually excite fantasy GMs, but what if that pie is a lot bigger, gooier, and tastier? I think it could well be in 2015 as the Eagles get back to Kelly’s roots and the run the ball much more than they have the past two seasons.

Mathews needs to stay out of the training room for that super-RBBC dream to come true and he hasn’t managed that historically. On the other hand, that’s just another reason you’re able to get him at bargain prices this year. If you want low risk/high reward, here’s your guy.

Danny Woodhead (SD): The guy Mathews used to share touches with is back from a season-shortening fibula break and will look to reprise his role as the Bolts’ backfield utility knife in 2015. Though Woodhead will always be more of a “snack” back than full meal (ticket) replacement due to his smallish stature, that doesn’t mean he can’t be highly useful, as he proved in 2013. The pride of Chadron St. tallied 151 fantasy points that season, a career high, and also merited 21 red zone targets, tops among all running backs. The most telling statistic of all for our purposes, however, was this: He received a whopping 179 fewer carries than Mathews but scored only 35.4 fewer fantasy points. That’s pretty special efficiency for a so-called “third-down back.”

Woody will play second fiddle to Melvin Gordon, prized rook from ‘Sconny, now that the oft-injured Mathews has moved on to Philly. And though his role would appear to be the same (which isn’t a bad thing), I have a hunch it could be expanded provided there are no lingering effects of that broken leg. Gordon is a more electrifying runner than the hard-charging Mathews and can’t possibly be more injury-prone. Nonetheless, he’s a former Badger, meaning he’s a virtual neophyte in the passing game, both as blocker and receiver. Gordon also has a reputation as a fumbler, which will get you benched quickly in the big leagues. Though Woodhead can’t carry the full load and wouldn’t be asked to, a slight uptick in his total carries could make him more valuable than a lot of back end RB1s.

If you’re in a deeper league or employ lots of flex players, don’t forget about San Diego’s little engine that very well could end up leading all running backs in passing game digits.

David Johnson (ARZ), Duke Johnson (CLE), or Matt Jones (WAS): Rookie rock toters are chronically over-drafted IMHO and the aforementioned Gordon and Detroit’s Ameer Abdullah are exhibits A and B this season. They’re going higher in drafts than proven producers Andre Ellington, LeGarrette Blount, and Giovani Bernard and are being valued as if they won’t be sharing lots of touches with other solid vets (the aforementioned Woodhead and Joique Bell). That’s the thing about rookie backs, though: Because they haven’t had a chance yet to share a workload, get hurt, or generally frustrate expectations, they’re treated like fantasy royalty.

If you’re more inclined to bargain shop for your rookie runners, wait several rounds. You may end up with a diamond in the rough and you’ll have risked essentially nothing to nab him. Johnson and Johnson, the respective backups in Arizona and Cleveland, are already being talked up by their coaches as explosive athletes with precocious receiving abilities. David is not your prototypical passing-down back at 6’1” and 224 pounds, but has great hands and is a mismatch for linebackers attempting to mark him. Duke, quite a bit smaller, makes up for it with rare quickness/elusiveness and is also a natural pass-grabber. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him split wide frequently in Cleveland. Neither player, for the record, has a firmly entrenched RB1 in front of him.

Matt Jones absolutely does but is still an intriguing prospect because Alfred Morris has averaged 292 carries his first three seasons (read: a whole bunch). The law of averages suggests Morris might be living on borrowed time and the linebacker-sized Jones appears capable of assuming the load should that happen. It wouldn’t be the first time a relative no name seized the RB1 job in Washington, BTW, as Morris himself would know perfectly well.

Wide Receivers

Leonard Hankerson (ATL): The concept of backup wide receivers is almost meaningless these days when teams can spill an entire WR depth chart out onto the field for any given play. Regardless, fantasy GMs rarely dig deeper than the WR2 spot and that’s for a solid mathematical reason: 32 teams x two receivers = 64 players, or roughly enough pass-grabbers for an entire 12-team league, depending on roster size. I say “roughly” because there are still some WR3s that merit draft consideration. Hankerson hasn’t usually been one of them, but I’m starting to think he should be.

First, let’s be clear: Julio Jones is going to be an absolute black hole/monster in 2015 if he stays healthy. He’s too big, too fast, and too good to be routinely contained by opposing DBs. I’ve got him ranked No.2 overall heading into the season behind Antonio Brown and just ahead of Odell Beckham Jr. Still, Matt Ryan can’t throw the ball to Jones on every play and there’s plenty of uncertainty south of him on the Falcons’ depth chart. Roddy White is still around, but won’t play this preseason and isn’t a lock to start the season healthy (or stay that way). Former No.3 guy Harry Douglas is now in Nashville. That leaves the obscure Hankerson, late of Washington, to vacuum up whatever crumbs Jones leaves behind.

The former ‘Cane doesn’t lack a pedigree (All-ACC, 3rd round draft pick), but he’s missed more games than he’s started as a pro and, despite flashes, never really gained a foothold for the ‘Skins. Things might be different in Atlanta, though, where he’ll play in the same system (Kyle Shanahan’s) and with a much better QB. It’s not too optimistic, maybe, to predict Hankerson could be a strong WR2 in a really good offense by season’s end.

Ty Montgomery (GB): The ACL tear heard ‘round America’s Dairyland has Packer backers in a funk before the season’s even started, present company included. Those who happen to own Randall Cobb can at least take solace knowing they’ve got a surefire top five target on their roster. Those who waited and grabbed Davante Adams, meanwhile, might feel like lottery winners. Adams was already generating lots of buzz and now gets the (green and) golden opportunity he wasn’t guaranteed even a few weeks ago. So, who’s the next man up in Green Bay’s high-flying offense should either of those two join Jordy Nelson in street clothes?

We wouldn’t much care if Aaron Rodgers weren’t slinging the leather, but when he is, anyone potentially catching it matters. Montgomery, a 3rd round draft choice this past April, now officially matters. When training camp started, he was behind Nelson, Cobb, Adams, and even Jeff Janis, last year’s 7th rounder, on the depth chart. Nelson is obviously on the shelf and Janis, despite uncommon athleticism (he had the highest SPARQ score of any WR in last year’s uncommon draft class), has been very inconsistent through the first several weeks of camp. That vaults Montgomery to the WR3 slot, ready or not.

He’s more not ready than ready at this point, but the Stanford product is quite bright (duh), quite large, quite fast, and quite versatile. He played split end, flanker, slot, running back, returner, and even wildcat QB down on The Farm. So, he basically did everything but sell popcorn. Sound like anyone else you might know who plays for the Pack? I’m not saying Montgomery will be as successful as Kentucky’s former jack-of-all-trades, Mr. Cobb, but it’s an interesting and fairly flattering comparison, nonetheless. The Pack’s new WR3 shouldn’t be ignored in deeper leagues.

De’Anthony Thomas (KC): Wait, we’re still talking about receivers, right? Indeed we are, and not only that, we’re talking about a Kansas City wide receiver! Thomas’ slender frame was deemed too slight for the rigors of running back, so Coach Reid moved him out on the flanks for the 2015 season where his devastating quickness and change-of-direction skills could potentially be put to good use. There’s a reason Snoop nicknamed him the “Black Mamba,” after all, as this guy found out earlier in training camp. Maybe that unsuspecting DB was caught off guard by a Chiefs wideout displaying actual moves?

The addition of Jeremy Maclin this past offseason was a great add for that beleaguered KC WR corps, even if it may not do much for Maclin’s overall fantasy production. It was a group that had basically no credibility last season and the former Mizzou Tiger by way of Philly definitely brings that. However, good positional groups aren’t built in a day or even one offseason and the Chiefs’ new No.1 is still mostly surrounded by unproven youngsters (Albert Wilson, Chris Conley, Frankie Hammond) or long in the tooth vets (Jason Avant). Thomas fits into that first group, but he’s already proven to be a home run threat on special teams and he had more receptions last year than any of those players I just mentioned despite being, you know, not actually a receiver.

Position switches are rare, though not unprecedented, at the NFL level, but the fact Coach Andy Reid was willing to do it tells us plenty about the KC passing game: It’s in desperate need of repair. Thomas will need to overcome a training camp calf strain but if Maclin does his thing, Travis Kelce continues to make big strides, and DAT does defenders dirty like he did routinely as a Duck, who knows? Oh, and GO DUCKS!

Happy drafting, folks, and we’ll chat again just before Week 1!