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Joseph Hutchins | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


The Shot Caller's Report - Running Backs
Your Guide To Fantasy Lineups: Week 16
12/22/16
QBs | RBs | WRs


Bye Weeks:
N/A

Todd Gurley

It makes you cringe, but Todd Gurley has the best matchup (SF) on the board in Championship week.

Grab a Helmet

Bilal Powell @ NE (Sat): If you can’t be with the ones you love this holiday season (Matt Forte, Eric Decker, etc.), you better get to loving the ones you’re with. That’s pretty easy when there might actually be more to love about those latter folks. Powell has reprised his role as late-season super-sub in 2016, scoring 46-plus in his last two appearances. Only Le’Veon Bell has scored more than that, in case you’re wondering. The best part about Powell? Like Bell, he’s immune to in-game circumstance, equally adept as a receiver when the Jets fall desperately behind…as they usually do and almost certainly will up in Foxboro on Saturday. Need more? After Powell, New York has only a gimpy Forte, Julian Howsare, and Brandon Wilds at the position. You could have told me those last two were barbers or professional bingo players and I totally would have believed you.

Todd Gurley v. SF (Sat): Of course, sometimes you end up loving the ones you’re stuck with. Gurley was a consensus top three pick in August drafts after a phenomenal rookie campaign, but has suffered an epic sophomore slump and is now averaging just 9.6 points a game. Matt Jones—otherwise known as the THIRD RB on Washington’s depth chart (behind Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson)—averages 10.2. Ouch. Unless you dumped him onto an unsuspecting and way too optimistic league mate, there’s nothing to do but play him at this point. And for the first time in a really long time, he may just repay you for such “devotion” with stellar numbers. San Francisco’s run defense is the worst this league has seen since 1987 (Atlanta). That’s almost THIRTY YEARS ago, back when teams actually ran the ball a lot. Give Gurley one more chance to make you proud.

Frank Gore @ OAK (Sat): I was an English major, not a math major, but I got to thinking about Gore and standard deviation recently. I couldn’t remember (or figure out) the formula, but…thank you, internet! Turns out Gore’s standard deviation for fantasy PPG in 2016 is about 4. That didn’t mean a whole lot to me until I ran the numbers for David Johnson and Zeke Elliott. The former was just over 7 and the latter was almost 8. What’s it all mean? Well, it doesn’t mean Gore is more valuable than those two. It does mean his game-over-game numbers are a lot more predictable. We could all use more predictability as the season winds down and the games matter more, and Gore is about as steady as they come. Keep him plugged in against an Oakland outfit that boasts a great record but shaky fundamentals (30th ranked defense).

Grab a Gatorade

Adrian Peterson @ GB (Sat): I was mystified Peterson’s sooner-than-expected return generated so much interest in the fantasy community. I mean, has anyone watched the Vikings play this year? You could plug an in-his-prime Barry Sanders behind that turnstile Minnesota’s calling an offensive line and he’d be hard-pressed to gain 50 yards in a game, let alone 100. Even before he was injured, AD averaged a microscopic 1.6 yards per carry. Admittedly, that was only two games in, but…1.6. Doug Martin is the lowest ranked qualifier for yards-per-rush this season and he’s averaging almost double that (2.9). They don’t call him Purple Jesus for nothing, but only true disciples would believe Peterson’s capable of doing anything special this Saturday at Lambeau Field. The Pack needs a W, the Vikes are about to clean out lockers, and the pitch could be messy (rain is forecast). Steer clear of the once great back.

Chris Ivory or T.J. Yeldon v. TEN (Sat): The bumbling, stumbling Jaguars finally managed to get Gus Bradley fired and though he took the mortal bullet for poor performance, as all coaches do, there’s more than enough blame to go around. Blake Bortles still stinks. High-profile draft picks haven’t worked out. The running game, despite a significant investment this past off-season (Ivory), is almost as ineffective as it was in 2015. I guess it was optimistic to think Jacksonville had really turned the corner toward respectability, huh? I’m not expecting much from the boys in teal and mustard on Saturday, but even if they rally, Tennessee’s got more on the line and is starting to flat stone opposing running backs (just 97 yards on 32 opponent carries the past two weeks). I doubt you were considering either of these two underachievers, but just in case you were, time to reconsider.

Dwayne Washington v. DET (Mon): Washington may be the only NFL’er whose surname doubles as his alma mater, a piece of trivia that probably interests only me. In fact, it might be the only interesting thing about him, at least from a fantasy asset perspective. The former Dawg, despite plenty of opportunities thanks to Theo Riddick’s recent injury (33 touches the last two weeks), is averaging only 3.6 PPG. Making matters worse, he and the Lions face a Dallas team Monday night that does two things really, really well: 1) monopolize the football; and 2) score points after monopolizing the football. Detroit is almost certain to be playing from behind against the Cowboys, in other words, and will have precious few opportunities to keep up. That means we’re likely to see a whole lot more of Matt Stafford et al. than Mr. Washington from Washington. Reserve the rookie running back.


Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers