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Joseph Hutchins | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


The Shot Caller's Report - Wide Receivers
Your Guide To Fantasy Lineups: Week 10
11/8/18
QBs | RBs | WRs

Bye Weeks: Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Minnesota

John Ross

The Saints have been beatup up by WR2s this season including a big game from Stefon Diggs in Wk 8.


Grab a Helmet

John Ross v. NO: Two weeks ago, I strongly recommended a play on Stefon Diggs v. New Orleans, arguing that WR2s were routinely killing the Saints this season. Diggs delivered with an 11-target, 10-reception, 119-yard effort, even tallying a six-pointer and outscoring his more celebrated running mate, Adam Thielen, in the losing effort. The same logic applies this week when the Bengals square off against New Orleans in a game that promises to keep the scoreboard operator busy. It’ll take a much bigger leap of faith to insert the unproven/heretofore disappointing John Ross into your lineups, but he appears to be healthy and fits the profile of a receiver who’s been giving the Saints’ defense fits (very, very fast). Ross has only been targeted 18 times as a pro thus far, but with A.J. Green watching in street clothes, his time in the spotlight has finally arrived.

Adam Humphries v. WAS: For my money, targets offer the best predictive value, all things considered, over any other wide receiver statistic, including actual production (receptions, yardage, etc.). The past is about production. The future is all about opportunity and the only opportunity a WR has to produce, in general, is on plays in which he’s targeted. I say all this as prelude to this little statistical nugget: Adam Humphries is the sixth most targeted wideout the past three weeks, right behind teammate Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas, Julian Edleman, and DeAndre Hopkins. If you’re thinking one of these things is not like the other, I’m right there with you. Nevertheless, players commanding 8-10 targets per contest shouldn’t be sitting on your bench. Sneak Humphries into your lineup against a Washington bunch that isn’t as good against the pass (254 YPG, 20th overall) as it is against the run.

David Moore @ LAR: Targets aren’t everything, of course, as players like David Moore probably illustrate. In his last four outings, the pride of East Central University (Ada, OK if you’re wondering) has only commanded 18 looks in a run-heavy offense, the same number Chad Williams has down in Phoenix. Yet, while Williams has tallied a meager 8.3 fantasy points during that stretch, Moore has amassed an impressive 44.3, mostly on the strength of four TD receptions. That’s an almost 25% touch-to-TD conversion rate, pretty impressive stuff for a player nobody outside Seattle even knew existed two months ago. Moore scored two of those six-pointers in the narrow Week 5 loss to the Rams, his coming out party. The rematch is slated for Sunday afternoon down in La La Land and there’s a pretty good chance the Hawks will be forced to the air early and often. Start David Moore.

Grab Some Wood

Nelson Agholor v. DAL: A Philly WR corps that once looked depleted now appears to be overly crowded as we head toward Week 10; lousy news if you were hoping Agholor could recapture his early-season form. The former Trojan garnered 39 targets the first four weeks, a healthy share, but has only managed about half that in the four games since (22). First, Alshon Jeffrey returned, cutting heavily into the youngster’s value. Then, Jordan Matthews rejoined the squad. Finally, Philly added slot man Golden Tate over the bye week in a trade with Detroit, further marginalizing Agholor’s seemingly secure role in the Eagles’ passing game. Things change quickly in the NFL, for sure, and the valuable Super Bowl contributor could certainly reemerge if injuries crop up. For now, though, he’s best left on your bench until we see how/if he fits into the bigger picture. Sit him down Sunday night.

Randall Cobb v. MIA: The Pack will likely be without Geronimo Allison the rest of the way, seemingly clearing a path for Cobb to lock down the role as Aaron Rodgers’ second fiddle. The targets are certainly there already (no fewer than five in any of his five appearances), but Cobb’s production has really started to tail off lately. Since a 20.2-point explosion in Week 1, he’s managed to turn 28 targets into just 11.7 points (standard leagues), a paltry and disturbing points-per-target ratio (.42) that looks anemic next to teammate Marquez Valdez-Scantling’s eye-popping 1.49. I guess that’s my way of saying Allison’s injury clears a path for MVS, and not Randall Cobb, to lock down the role as A-Rodge’s true second fiddle. If all you need are bye week table scraps, Cobb might be your guy. If you’re looking for something significantly meatier, MVS is the much better bet.

T.Y. Hilton v. JAX: The Jags appear to be in complete disarray right now, but even through all the turmoil, they’ve managed to keep a pretty tight lid on opposing WRs. As we move into the second half of the season, Jalen Ramsey and Co. are allowing just 17.8 points per game to the position, more than they did last year (14.3) but still few enough to lead the league this season. Moreover, they’ve already squared off against some of the game’s best (OBJ, Tyreek Hill, and DeAndre Hopkins). Hilton’s probably a step down from that group, but still possesses game-breaking speed and can ruin a DB’s day in a hurry. He won’t ruin Ramsey’s in a divisional game the Jags simply must have to stay in the mix for a playoff berth. I think they’ll get it and would definitely take a flyer on the straight-up win in Indy.
Good luck, folks!


Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers