Browns @ Bills (Marcoccio)

Derek Anderson/Jamal Lewis/Jerome Harrison
Joshua Cribbs/Mohammd Mossaqui/Robert Royal (vs. BUF)

BUF FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +0.9%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +58.0%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -19.6%
BUF FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +62.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: I’m not sure how Eric Mangenius (kind of funny how that moniker has now developed into one of those ironic nicknames like calling a fat guy, “tiny”), went through a full offseason of workouts and then decides after two and a half games of football that the QB he named as the team’s starter should be replaced by the backup. At least it does seem like he has now made the right choice. The Browns defense is not going to keep this team in games and Derek Anderson is more suited to playing catch up than Brady Quinn as he can get the ball downfield. Anderson can be inconsistent with ball control, but he does have a strong arm and gunslinger mentality of attacking the defense and trusting his receivers to go get the ball. The Browns just traded disappointing WR Braylon Edwards to the Jets, after he allegedly punched a club promoter in the face late Sunday night. With Braylon’s stone hands that must have really hurt. Seriously the victim should really consider not pressing charges, because if the roles were reversed you know Edwards would have dropped the charges. Thanks I’ll be here all week, please try the veal. It may take a few weeks to figure out the Cleveland WR pecking order. If you’re going to take a chance this week, try out the rookie Mossaqui who is coming off a big game against Cincinnati and has some nice game.

Buffalo’s passing defense has allowed 226.5 yards per games and 6 TDs through the air this season. Things could be a lot worse, as the Bills have faced Byron Leftwich, First time starter Chad Henne and a Saints team that chose to attack the Bills on the ground in three of their four games. Things will get worse as the Bills were forced to place promising young CB Leodis McKelvin on the IR prior to last week’s game and are now missing 3/4 of their starting secondary. This could have been Edwards’ breakout week if he had been allowed to stick around.

Running Game Thoughts: Jerome Harrison was given 29 carries and gained 121 yards against a decent Cincinnati defense last week. Harrison was basically the only healthy back on the team with veteran Jamal Lewis missing his second straight game with hamstring issues and rookie James Davis being placed on the IR with a shoulder injury. Lewis may be back this week, but check on his status if you need to play him. If Lewis sits another week, Harrison should once again see significant carries as the only other HB on the roster is practice squad player Chris Jennings. Harrison is small, but quick and decisive in his running style. He may not be the long term future in Cleveland, but his immediate future could be bright.

The Bills run defense is once again near the bottom of the league. They allow 150.5 ypg and have given up 7 rushing TDs on the season. The loss of Paul Posluszny, which seems to be a common theme since he was drafted, hurts an already weak line backing corp. If Jamal Lewis is healthy he could have a big day, as Buffalo has struggled against big fast (of course Lewis has lost much of his speed) RBs like Pierre Thomas and Ronnie Brown in recent weeks.

Projections:
Derek Anderson: 275 yards, 2 TDs, 1 Int.
Joshua Cribbs: 45 yds receiving
Mohammad Mossaqui: 85 yds receiving
Robert Royal: 30 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jamal Lewis: 65 yds rushing, 1 TD / 10 yds rec.
Jerome Harrison: 40 yds rushing / 40 yds receiving, 1 TD

Trent Edwards/Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch
Lee Evans/Terrell Owens/Derek Fine (vs. CLE)

CLE FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -6.1%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +68.3%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +11.3%
CLE FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -21.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: Trent Edwards has now played poorly in two consecutive weeks, against the Saints and the Dolphins. Last week he only completed 14 of 26 passes and threw 3 interceptions (and a garbage time TD). When a QB is not attacking deep and mostly throwing short passes to his RBs and slot WR, his stat line should not look so horrid. RBs Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson caught 8 of Edwards 14 completions. Once again he barely looked at his high priced starting WR duo – Owens and Evans. The pair had only 5 receptions between them. It’s tough to imagine why the Bills even went to the trouble of signing Owens if they didn’t want to test defenses deep and help open things up for Lee Evans – unless the City just had a lot of extra keys laying around and didn’t know what to do with them. In fairness, Edwards hasn’t exactly been given a lot of time to look deep. His 16 times sacked is second to only Aaron Rodgers.

The best thing that can be said about Cleveland’s pass defense is that it’s not as bad as its run defense. Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald may be the worst starting CB tandem in the league, but in fairness the lack of a consistent pass rush doesn’t help take any pressure off of the secondary. The unit has allowed 226.5 ypg and 5 TDs on the year. Those numbers would likely look a lot worse if teams weren’t able to so easily run on the Browns and not have to pass.

Running Game Thoughts: Buffalo, being down 17-3 at halftime, didn’t really get the chance to unleash the Marshawn Lynch/Fred Jackson tandem on the Dolphins. They only had 8 and 9 carries, respectively. As noted above the pair were used heavily in the passing game and that should be the case all season, as the Bills game plan is so conservative it makes future St. Louis Ram’s owner Rush Limbaugh look like a pinko commie comparatively.

Cleveland is the worst run defense in the NFL. If the league expanded and allowed two college teams to enter, they’d probably be ranked lower than 32nd ranking the have now. In fairness, Adrian Peterson’s monster Week 1 put the team in a hole statistically, but they have allowed teams to rush for 226.5 ypg and 8 TDs on the season. The Bills should be able to get their run game going provided that they don’t fall behind so quickly like last week.

Projections:
Trent Edwards: 215 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Lee Evans: 60 yds receiving
Terrell Owens: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Derek Fine: 15 yds receiving
Fred Jackson: 75 yds rushing / 45 yds receiving
Marshawn Lynch: 85 yds rushing, 1TD / 30 yds receiving

Prediction: Browns 27 Bills 20

Raiders @ Giants (Marcoccio)

JaMarcus Russell/Michael Bush/Justin Fargas
Darrius Heyward-Bey/Louis Murphy/Zach Miller (vs. NYG)

NYG FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -26.9%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -24.2%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -57.5%
NYG FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +21.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: Passing game thoughts? Ummmmmmm. The Raider do occasionally throw, they just don’t do it very well. After a promising end to the 2008 season, JaMarcus Russell has regressed to looking like a bust of Ryan Leafesque proportions. Let’s put it this way, Russell can only dream about some day being as good as Joey Harrington. He has no touch or accuracy to speak of and his stats through 4 weeks are the following (hope you haven’t eaten your lunch yet): 42.4 QB rating, 39% completion percentage, 1 TD, 4 INTs, 4.7 YPC. The best thing that can be said about Russell is that he doesn’t usually throw the ball close enough to his WR to allow the defense to be able to intercept it. Rookie WR Louis Murphy has outplayed fellow rookie Darrius Heyward Bey despite being drafted 3 round later. Talented young TE Zach Miller is being wasted in this offense. Mediocre at best QBs Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye are waiting in the wings, but couldn’t possibly be worse options.

The Giants pass rush led by Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Mattias Kiwanuka was surprisingly dormant up until last week’s 5 sacks of the hapless Chiefs. This week they get a shot to pad their season totals once again, against a subpar Raider o-line and the immobile Russell. Overall the Giants pass defense is ranked 1st (115 ypg and 4 TDs) despite the fact that Aaron Ross has yet to play. While Ross has been out Corey Webster has really stepped up his game. It isn’t a stretch to go on record and state that the Giants are still going to be the top ranked pass defense next week.

Running Game Thoughts: The past couple of years the Raiders have been one of the top rushing teams in the NFL, but the unit has really struggled thus far in 2009. To make matters worse, second year back Darren McFadden tore a knee ligament and will miss the next few weeks. Huggy Bear, Jr. (Justin Fargas) will regain a prominent role in the run game in the meantime, but the bulk of the carries should go to third year back Michael Bush. Bush is a load, but hasn’t been able to build on his strong finish to the 2008 season, where he dropped over 170 yards rushing on the Tampa Bay defense. The Raiders will likely run him and Fargas up the gut of the Giants D in order to slow down the pass rush and try to somehow keep the game close.

New York is ranked 20th in the league in run defense, but have been a pretty decent unit outside of getting smoked by Marion Barber and Felix Jones in Dallas. Newcomer Michael Boley who missed the first two games and then played very well at KC, will miss this and the next couple of weeks as well. So the onus will fall on Antonio Pierce to take down all runners who get through the interior defense of the Giants o-line led by Fred Robbins and Barry Coefield.

Projections:
JaMarcus Russell: 105 yds passing, 2 Ints.
Darrius Heyward-Bey: 15 yds receiving / 10 yards rushing
Louis Murphy: 40 yds receiving
Zach Miller: 35 yds receiving
Michael Bush: 95 yds rushing, 1 TD
Justin Fargas: 45 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving

Eli Manning/ Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw
Steve Smith/Mario Manningham/Kevin Boss (vs. OAK)

OAK FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -15.6%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +31.6%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -7.7%
OAK FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -34.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Just which Steve Smith was the “good” Steve Smith again? The former USC Trojan has outperformed his better known namesake for the season so far and is coming off an 11 catch effort where he totaled 134 yards and two TDs. Smith is an outstanding route runner with steady hands. He is the real deal. While he likely will not keep up this pace, he’s more than capable of finishing out the season as a top 15 fantasy WR. Eli Manning suffered a plantar fascia injury in last weeks contest but has vowed to play in Week 5. As long as he can withstand the pain, he should be able to play through the injury. Of course his owners should be aware of a potential blowout at the Meadowlands this week, which could mean seeing Eli Manning leave the game early in favor of David Carr.

Oakland’s Nnamdi Asomugha is simply the best cover corner in the NFL today (with Darrelle Revis closing in fast). Bear in mind he usually stays on the right side of the field and doesn’t matchup with the opposition’s top WR exclusively, so you don’t necessarily need to bench your stud WR when they face Oakland. Of course Chris Johnson on the other side is no slouch and the Oakland pass defense is better than average overall. They allow 210.5 ypg and have only allowed 4 passing TDs. They actually have out sacked the Giants 9 to 8 on the season, so they can bring some heat on opposing QBs.

Running Game Thoughts: Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw compliment each other very well. Ahmad Bradshaw has easily replaced the departed Derrick Ward, and he has at times looked better than Jacobs. He was in a walking boot last week and now again this week due to an old ankle injury he suffered in college so some caution may be necessary. Jacobs looked like the 2007-2008 version of himself last week in Kansas City after struggling a little to start the year. He gained 92 yards and ran with authority against the over-matched Chiefs.

Oakland is the 27th ranked run defense allowing 146.3 ypg. The unit has showed some signs of improvement, but at times lack the discipline to maintain their gap responsibilities allowing some big gains. The Giants should look to eat up yardage on the ground to let Eli “rest” a little, especially in light of the fact that they should be playing with the lead for a majority of the game.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 175 yds passing, 1 TD
Steve Smith: 60 yds receiving
Mario Manningham: 40 yds receiving, 1 TD
Mario Manningham: 15 yds receiving
Kevin Boss: 30 yds receiving
Brandon Jacobs: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 105 yds rushing, 1 TD / 25 yds receiving

Prediction: Giants 24 Raiders 10

Buccaneers @ Eagles (Marcoccio)

Josh Johnson/ Cadillac Williams/Derrick Ward
Michael Clayton/Antonio Bryant/Kellen Winslow, Jr. (vs. PHI)

PHI FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -14.6%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +18.8%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -4.8%
PHI FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -54.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Bucs passing game in Week 4 under second year QB Josh Johnson (106-1-1) was about as conservative as expected. Johnson did show off his scrambling ability gaining 41 yards on the ground. WR Antonio Bryant who was banged up with knee issues and missed two games returned to action and caught 4 balls including Johnson’s first career TD pass. Bryant’s return should help Johnson develop as he is the only threat at the WR position for the Bucs. Michael Clayton fooled everyone in Week 1, but has quickly returned to irrelevancy – can you imagine this guy had one of the top rookie WR seasons of all time? Kellen Winslow, Jr., as predicted, was not done any favors by the benching of Leftwich. Perhaps Johnson will start to lean on him more, but Johnson has a ways to go before he looks like a adequate NFL QB which will hurt all of the TB receivers.

The Eagles’ blitz packages are still going strong even with the untimely death of DC Jimmy Johnson. The defense has sacked opposing QBs 10 times in 3 games. The unit allows only 156 ypg, but has given up 5 TDs in their first 3 games. Assante Samuel and Sheldon Brown should be able to handle a gimpy Bryant and underachieving Clayton in single coverage, allowing Trent Cole and company to blitz in order to corral the young Buc at QB.

Running Game Thoughts: Cadillac Williams played well again in Week 4, gaining 77 yards on 16 carries. His comeback from various devastating injuries is inspiring and you have to root for he guy, but the lack of the passing game is going to allow the Eagles to concentrate on shutting him and Derek Ward (assuming he’s ready to go this week) down. They will need to at least try though to establish the run, relying on their still above average o-line, if they stand any chance to pull this game out.

Journeyman Mike Bell and the much maligned Reggie Bush were able to run for 119 yards and 2 TDs against the Eagles in Week 2, but otherwise they have done a decent job against the run (106 ypg allowed and 3 TDs on the season). Omar Gaither playing out of position in Stewart Bradley’s place has been a weak link, so in a surprise move, the Eagles have brought in Jeremiah Trotter for a second go round with the team. If he has any gas left in the tank, the Eagles defense could be formidable going forward.

Projections:
Josh Johnson: 145 yds passing, 1 Int. / 40 yds rushing
Antonio Bryant: 60 yds receiving
Michael Clayton: 10 yds receiving
Kellen Winslow: 25 yds receiving
Cadillac Williams: 65 yds rushing, 1 TD / 10 yds receiving
Derrick Ward: 35 yds rushing / 25 yds receiving

Donovan McNabb/Brian Westbrook/LeSean McCoy
Kevin Curtis/Desean Jackson/Jason Avant/Brent Celek (vs. TB)

TB FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +17.6%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +2.5%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +45.6%
TB FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +8.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Donovan McNabb’s broken rib caused him to miss Weeks 2 and 3, but he’s expected back after the Eagles bye last week. Desean Jackson has been on fire so far in 2009 and should be one of McNabb’s first looks in the passing game. TE Brent Celek has 245 yards and 2 TDs after 3 weeks and while he may not get as many looks from McNabb as he did with Kevin Kolb under center he should still be heavily involved as McNabb has always liked looking to his TEs, and in Kolb he has a big athletic target. McNabb who always feel unappreciated, should be raring to go after his replacement Kolb put up back to back 300+ yards games in his absence – look for him to once again feel the need to prove his worth to Eagles fans.

Last week I lamented on how the once proud Tampa Bay pass defense (the godfathers of the Cover 2) has become a joke. And once again they let a mediocre offense dominate them through the air as Jason Campbell threw two TDs against them. The Bucs allow 221.8 passing yards per game and have given up 9 passing TDs on the season. This is a good defense for McNabb to ease himself in against, after not playing for three straight weeks.

Running Game Thoughts: Brian Westbrook missed Week 3 after aggravating the ankle on which he had offseason surgery. Rookie LeSean McCoy played very well in his place – albeit against one of the worst run defenses in the league. McCoy will be patiently waiting in the wings, if those ankle problems creep up again on the perennial “GTD” Westbrook. Westbrook may be eased back against a weak opponent, so there is some risk, but this is certainly a tasty matchup for his owners to exploit.

The Bucs are the second worst run defense in the league allowing 171.8 ypg (but only 2 TDs) on the ground this season. Their undersized linebackers will get mauled by the Eagles strong o-line if the Tampa Bay d-line doesn’t hold its ground something they have failed to do most weeks.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb: 285 yds passing 3 TDs, 1 Int.
Kevin Curtis: 30 yds receiving
Jason Avant: 25 yds receiving, 1 TD
Desean Jackson: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brent Celek: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brian Westbrook: 75 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving
LeSean McCoy: 35 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving

Prediction: Eagles 30 Buccaneers 13

Jets @ Dolphins (Marcoccio)

Mark Sanchez / Thomas Jones/ Leon Washington
Braylon Edwards/Jerricho Cotchery/Dustin Keller (vs. MIA)

MIA FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +4.5%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -28.0%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -14.0%
MIA FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +44.7%

Passing Game Thoughts: As stated above Braylon Edwards has been traded to the Jets this week, and GM Mike Tannenbaum stated that he will start for the team on Monday night. Put me in the camp that says a change of scenery will do Edwards some good. The talent is obviously there, he just need to get his head on straight. Mark Sanchez finally looked like a rookie QB in New Orleans last week and single handedly cost the Jets a game. Sanchez who has played well beyond his years otherwise, should shake that game off and come out firing in Miami. The addition of Edwards should open up the field for Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller increasing their production and giving Sanchez a much needed downfield weapon. This could just be the week that Sanchez puts up QB1 numbers.

Miami is ranked 26th in the league against the pass. They have allowed 238.5 ypg and 5 TDs on the season. While it hasn’t helped that they have faced Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers in three of their games, the front office is likely regretting their decision to let CBs Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill leave via free agency, as they now lack depth in the secondary.

Running Game Thoughts: The Jets were once again not very effective running the ball in New Orleans, except for when they unleashed their version of the “Wild Cat”, the “Seminole” with Leon Washington and Brad Smith taking the direct snaps. Thomas Jones has been bottled up all season (except on his 3 long TD runs) as teams have stacked the box against the Jets. Braylon Edwards may be able to help there as well, as the Jets lacked a big play WR that could make a defense pay for leaving them with one on one coverage. Rookie Shonn Greene finally got his first 4 carries of the season and looked strong gaining for 23 yards. Expect Greene to be worked in as the season progresses but not make a fantasy impact until 2010.

The Dolphins are the third ranked run defense (and would likely be second if Arizona did not already have a bye). They have allowed only 61 ypg and 2 TDs to ball carriers this season. Expect Channing Crowder, Joey Porter and Akin Ayodele to come out flying and hit the Jets hard after Crowder got into a war of words with head coach Rex Ryan this offseason and Ayodele coming to his teammates defense this week.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 270 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 15 yards rushing
Braylon Edwards: 40 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery: 65 yds receiving
Dustin Keller: 95 yds receiving, 1 TD
Thomas Jones: 65 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Leon Washington: 40 yds rushing / 50 yds receiving

Chad Henne/Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams
Ted Ginn Jr./Greg Camarillo/Davone Bess/Anthony Fasano (vs. NYJ)

NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -42.6%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -15.8%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -33.7%
NYJ FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -47.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Chad Henne (115-1-0) era began last week and while he was not a major contributor, the Phins got their first win of the season trouncing Buffalo 38-10. Ted Ginn was not helped by the insertion of Henne into the line-up, only catching 1 ball for 4 yards. Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess worked underneath and were the main targets of the young former Wolverine. As Henne grows as a QB, HC Tony Sparano may let him take a few more chances downfield, but until then expect the Dolphins to take a conservative approach.

The Jets pass defense was able to hold even the great Drew Brees out of the endzone, and only allowed him to pass for 190 yards. Darrellle Revis has now held Andre Johnson, Randy Moss and Marques Colston to subpar games. I think it’s safe to say that Ginn will not be heard from very often this week. Rex Ryan’s blitzing schemes have not necessarily produced high sack totals but they have pressured opposing QBs into getting rid of the ball quicker than they would like and forcing inaccurate throws. LB/DE Calvin Pace returns after a 4 week suspension and should help add to the Jet sack totals. Expect the Jets to completely shut down Henne this week before the national audience.

Running Game Thoughts: The conservative play calling that saw QB Chad Pennington often on the sideline in favor of Ronnie Brown in his place to run the “Wild Cat” offense got even more conservative with Henne under center. Ronnie Brown rushed for 115 yards and Ricky Williams rushed for 85 more with each finding the endzone (Brown scored twice). Miami has a massive o-line that has gelled into as fine a unit as you’ll find in the NFL so they may be able to handle the Jets middle which features the active NT Kris Jenkins and line backers Bart Scott and David Harris, but this should be their biggest test of the season as Miami has faced only soft run defenses like Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego and Buffalo so far.

The Jets run defense has slowed down a little after locking up Steve Slaton in Week 1. Pierre Thomas was able to get some running room gaining 86 yards and scoring a TD last week. Overall the Jets have allowed 100.3 ypg but only 2 TDs on the ground through 4 weeks. The Dolphins will surely look to keep the ball on the ground against the Jets, and I’m sure that the Jets coaching staff will be aware of that. This is the most intriguing matchup of the contest.

Projections:
Chad Henne: 130 yards, 2 Ints.
Ted Ginn Jr.: 15 yds receiving
Greg Camarillo: 35 yds receiving
Davone Bess: 25 yds receiving
Anthony Fasano: 5 yds receiving
Ronnie Brown: 95 yds rushing, 1 TD / 30 yds rec.
Ricky Williams: 30 yds rushing

Prediction: Jets 17 Dolphins 10

Bengals @ Ravens (Mack)

Carson Palmer / Cedric Benson
Chad Ochocinco / Andre Caldwell / Laveranues Coles / Daniel Coats (vs. Baltimore)

BAL FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +6.4%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -22.1%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +2.5%
BAL FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -30.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer hasn’t been much to celebrate in fantasy football circles, but he’s certainly been a big reason why the Bengals are 3-1. His pedestrian numbers of 6 TDs with 5 INTs through four games is nothing to be proud of if you own him. It’s funny how in just a few short years he’s turned from a must-start fantasy player to a spot-starter when faced with a good match-up. It’s a difficult thing finding the reasons why he hasn’t played the way we’re accustomed to him playing. He has a solid running game, productive receivers and an improving O-line. The departed TJ Houshmandzadeh was good, but he can’t be the reason why Palmer has become an average fantasy QB.

Even with his recent struggles, we can’t automatically assume that he will have a bad game against Baltimore’s defense. The Ravens rank 25th in the league against the pass and even allowed Kansas City’s Brodie Croyle—Brodie Croyle?—to throw for a couple scores several weeks ago. The Bengals’ passing game remains a work in progress, as the #2 WR position remains in flux. Laveranues Coles was brought in to fill the role, but it’s been Andre Caldwell who has best played the role of Houshmandzadeh. Heck, even FB Brian Leonard has more receptions and receiving yards than Coles. That’s not good. So as it relates to who to start, Chad Ochocinco is a solid WR2 this week. Palmer’s play has been too spotty to start him with any level of confidence, and the others should be avoided altogether.

Running Game Thoughts: The reclamation project that is Cedric Benson is alive and well in the Queen City. Benson has been one of the bigger surprises through the first quarter of the season in fantasyland, giving the Bengals a solid building block to build their offense around. He’s averaged 21 carries a game and makes it possible for Palmer and the passing game to have the level of success that they enjoy. In fact, his 84 carries ties him with Adrian Peterson for the most in the league. So what does that tell you about the level of confidence Cincinnati has in Benson?

Benson suffered a hip injury in last week’s game against Cleveland and his availability is in doubt as of this writing. This game is important for the Bengals, as it’s for first place in the ultra competitive AFC North. Even playing against the Ravens’ top-ranked rushing defense, I believe Benson gives it a try. He could struggle in this one, but again, it won’t be from a lack of opportunities. Barring any setbacks in his recovery, he should see 20 carries and be the cornerstone of Cincy’s offensive attack once more. Will he be successful? I doubt it. But if you’re thin at RB due to bye weeks or injuries, you could do a lot worse than Benson.

Projections:
Carson Palmer – 210 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Cedric Benson – 70 yards
Chad Ochocinco – 85 yards
Andre Caldwell – 65 yards / 1 TD
Laveranues Coles – 25 yards
Daniel Coats – 20 yards

Joe Flacco / Ray Rice / Willis McGahee
Derrick Mason / Mark Clayton / Todd Heap (vs. Cincinnati)

CIN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +15.1%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -23.8%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +8.7%
CIN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -6.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: Can you believe it? The Baltimore Ravens have the 2nd ranked offense in the league—and this with a 2nd year QB who’s still learning the ropes. Here’s what’s most impressive from a fantasy standpoint: all of the players in the Ravens’ passing attack were more than likely drafted for depth, yet a few of them have turned into every-week starters. Joe Flacco and Derrick Mason are the two that come to mind. Flacco’s 8 TDs are more than Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and a ton of others drafted many, many rounds ahead of him, including Tom Brady, who has half that amount.

Mason has been a consistent and reliable WR for at least the last half-dozen years, so his production shouldn’t surprise many. Perhaps what’s most surprising to me regarding Baltimore’s passing game is TE Todd Heap remains healthy. Never known for his durability, Heap has become a solid outlet receiver and is now one of five Ravens with at least 14 receptions on the season—the only team that can claim such a distinction. Flacco should be in your line-up, as well as Mason. Heap is an okay start in TE-required leagues, but that’s where the serious consideration should cease.

Running Game Thoughts: The Ravens are averaging a whopping 5 yards per carry as a team, led by Ray Rice’s 6 ypc. So now opponents are faced with a pick-your-poison scenario with the Ravens. Crowd the line of scrimmage and Flacco slices and dices the secondary; play back in coverage and Rice and Willis McGahee run roughshod over the front seven. It has to be a challenge playing the new-look Ravens, and that only benefits both Rice and McGahee.

As good as both are playing, it makes deciding who to play that much more difficult. They have a comparable number of carries, but it’s McGahee’s 5 scores that make him an attraction option each week. But Rice’s presence in the passing game makes him a viable option too; he’s second on the team with 16 receptions. Both are solid plays this week. McGahee should get the looks at the goal line, and Rice has a good chance of scoring only his second TD of the season. Start both with confidence.

Projections:
Joe Flacco – 240 yards / 2 TDs
Ray Rice – 70 yards rushing / 40 yards rec.
Willis McGahee – 40 yards / 1 TD
Derrick Mason - 70 yards / 1 TD
Mark Clayton – 45 yards
Todd Heap – 80 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Baltimore 24, Cincinnati 13

Steelers @ Lions (Mack)

Ben Roethlisberger / Rashard Mendenhall
Santonio Holmes / Hines Ward / Heath Miller (vs. Detroit)

DET FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +44.0%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +27.6%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +26.8%
DET FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +43.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: If your fantasy league handed out points for a QB’s completion percentage, Ben Roethlisberger’s 73 percent would put him at the top of the food chain for fantasy QBs. Obviously that’s not the case. Instead, Roethlisberger’s 5 TDs and 4 INTs make him an average QB option, although his 1,193 passing yards are third most in the NFL. He could be turning the corner, though. Big Ben threw for well over 300 yards last week against a completely unprepared San Diego team while completing 79 percent of his passes. If he did that against a talented, albeit uninspired Charger team, imagine what he could do against Detroit?

The one caveat with starter Roethlisberger or any of his receiving targets against the Lions is the Steelers may only have to throw the ball 20 times. Those limited opportunities could hurt you if you’re not careful. Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller all remain solid options this week; just hope that the game is competitive as it enters the second half. Only then will the passing game of the Steelers produce fantasy points of any significance.

Running Game Thoughts: Move over Fast Willie, there’s a new RB in town for the Steelers. After Rashard Mendenhall’s man-sized beat down of San Diego, he may very well have cemented his role as the premiere back in Pittsburgh. And with Willie Parker more than likely out again this week, chances are good that Mendenhall could make it two outstanding performances in a row. Detroit’s 32nd-ranked defense, as overmatched as it often is, somehow seems to contain top rushers. In consecutive weeks, they held both Adrian Peterson and Clinton Portis to average production, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they could keep Mendenhall in check.

But here’s what’s interesting: Mendenhall is fresh out of head coach Mike Tomlin’s doghouse, and he’s hunger to prove that he was well worth the high draft pick the team spent on him. He will get a boatload of opportunities this week to show his stuff; 25-30 carries is a real possibility. With that amount of carries, he’s bound to give his owners production that will start to reward those patient owners who have waited on him to show a pulse. Those who own him should have sore faces from smiling all afternoon at the hurting he should give the Lions.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 200 yards / 1 TD
Rashard Mendenhall – 130 yards / 2 TDs
Hines Ward – 80 yards / 1 TD
Santonio Holmes – 45 yards
Heath Miller – 50 yards

Daunte Culpepper / Kevin Smith
Calvin Johnson / Bryant Johnson / Brandon Pettigrew (vs. Pittsburgh)

PIT FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -0.5%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -50.3%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +7.3%
PIT FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +45.2%

Passing Game Thoughts: Head coach Jim Schwartz is at it again. A week after being mum on the status of injured RB Kevin Smith entering last week’s game against Chicago, Schwartz is now keeping rookie QB Matt Stafford’s injury under tight wraps. Stafford twisted a knee during last week’s game and hasn’t practiced this week. Knowing that, his chances of playing are slim. The presence of veteran Daunte Culpepper should now prove valuable, as he will get the nod if Stafford is sidelined.

Perhaps it’s best that Culpepper plays anyway. We all know the complexity of the Steelers’ defense, and having a rookie playing against it certainly is no walk in the park. But Culpepper should fair reasonably well. Pittsburgh has surrendered some huge passing games so far this year, and a vet like Culpepper should be able to exploit whatever perceived weakness the other QBs found. While it’s a stretch to suggest you start Culpepper, his presence shouldn’t affect the productivity of Calvin Johnson, who also is battling an injury that the coaching staff remains coy about.

Running Game Thoughts: Kevin Smith entered last week’s game against Chicago a question mark with a shoulder injury. He started, though, and salvaged an ugly game yardage-wise by scoring two short TDs. Smith is a steady player, but he lacks explosiveness. He has only three 100-plus yard games in his career, and his average per carry is less than 4 yards. Smith will be counted on to supply a ground threat against a Pittsburgh defense that’s ranked fourth in the league against the run. His 16 receptions are second on the team, so whatever limitations he may face on the ground, he should make up in the passing game.

It was great to see Smith get those short TD runs last week. FB Jerome Felton normally gets those reps, so that was an encouraging, long-term sign for Smith owners. It’s going to be tough sledding this week. Smith should only be used in those desperate situations where bye weeks and/or injuries have your RB crop razor thin. If you have to start him, do so with a healthy amount of pessimism. Whatever he gives you, be grateful.

Projections:
Daunte Culpepper – 185 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Kevin Smith – 60 yards rushing / 30 yards rec
Calvin Johnson – 80 yards / 1 TD
Bryant Johnson – 40 yards
Brandon Pettigrew – 25 yards

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Detroit 13

Cowboys @ Chiefs (Eakin)

Tony Romo/Patrick Crayton/Roy Williams/Jason Witten/
Marion Barber/Tashard Choice (vs. KC)

KC FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +23.6%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +20.4%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +30.5%
KC FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +15.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Much has been made of Tony Romo’s three game skid in which he has delivered one TD and three INTs including some criticism of OC Jason Garrett. To leave TE Jason Witten in to block with two shots to win the game against Denver is baffling and compounded by the decision to challenge Champ Bailey versus Sam Hurd on two identical slant routes. Romo is hand cuffed by a lack of WR production and the harassment of pass rushers like Elvis Dumervil. He will have more time to throw this week as the Chiefs can do wonders for a struggling offenses confidence. Roy Williams took a shot to the ribs and did not practice as of Wednesday. Outside of a 60-yard broken-coverage TD in week one, he has been unproductive so his loss does not adversely affect Romo’s potential. If he sits, Sam Hurd and Miles Austin will get a bump to WR3 range if only because of the good matchup in Kansas City.

The Chiefs showed some progress by getting to Eli Manning twice for sacks. Tamba Hali continues to be their best pass rusher but he is not playing at the level of Elvis Dumervil so he represents an easier assignment for Cowboy LT Flozell Adams. The effective Dallas rushing attack will keep the Chiefs LBs from selling out to the blitz. Romo will need to account for play-making safety Mike Brown. Brown will sneak up to support the run and is a quality blitzer and capable of big plays. When Brown comes in to the box look for Romo to hit a hot route or audible to runs away from him.

Running Game Thoughts: Lead RB Marion Barber is still nursing a quad strain but is in better shape than last week. He should start the game and see a 60/40 split with Tashard Choice. Both RBs are worthy starters but Barber should grade slightly higher for his goal line chances. The Cowboys ran well on Denver in the first half but to their own demise, have the notorious reputation of abandoning the run in favor of Romo passing in the second half if the games. Only time will tell if they correct that moving forward and if they can stay patient. I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Jerry Jones is pulling an “AL Davis” and calling for more passing from the Bat Cave.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 200 yds/2 TD
Patrick Crayton: 80 yds/1 TD
Miles Austin: 45 yds
Sam Hurd: 35 yards
Jason Witten: 60 yds/1 TD
Marion Barber: 70 yds rushing/1 TD
Tashard Choice: 60 yds rushing/30 yds rec

Matt Cassel/Mark Bradley/Bobby Wade/Dwayne Bowe
Larry Johnson/Jamaal Charles (vs. GB)

DAL FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +6.3%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -1.8%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +20.9%
DAL FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +11.5%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Chiefs were ineffective moving the ball on the Giants until Cassel managed two garbage-time short TD passes to TE Sean Ryan and Bobby Wade. Cassel is struggling to make plays downfield for a variety of reasons…like Bowe’s pulled hammy, protection, and check-down syndrome. For those wondering what is going on with Bowe, remember that freakish athleticism is what makes him appealing. If the Chiefs do not give him some deep balls where he excels at playing the ball in the air, he will remain ordinary. He should post better numbers this week against a mediocre Dallas secondary that is struggling in the pass rush department themselves.

In hindsight, I’m not sure Dallas would give up DE Greg Ellis in favor of promoting Anthony Henry if they had it to do over. Henry has yet to make an impact opposite DeMarcus Ware and is hampering the play of his battery mate by not commanding equal attention. I said last week the Dallas secondary needed to tackle better to win at Denver. It came to fruition when Brandon Marshall beat five Dallas defenders to the end zone for the game winner. To address the issue, Wade Phillips is changing their practice routine towards more contact drills. Only Bowe and RB Jamaal Charles posses the escapability skills after-the-catch to threaten in a similar fashion. Look for them to be involved heavily in the Chief game plan with a chance of breaking a big one.

Running Game Thoughts: Tough to judge RB Larry Johnson against a run stout NYG defense. Johnson is still doing little with a decent amount of work by averaging a meager 2.6 yards per carry including his 18-for-53 effort last week. Any chance of RB Jamaal Charles eating into his workload may have been fumbled away on the opening kickoff when Charles coughed it up to give the Giants an immediate lead that never relinquished. Charles now posses less of a threat to Johnson until he climbs out of the doghouse.

Projections:
Matt Cassel: 190 yd/1 TD/1 INT
Bobby Wade: 40 yds
Dwayne Bowe: 70 yds/1 TD
Sean Ryan: 30 yds
Larry Johnson: 70 yds rushing/1 TD
Jamaal Charles: 20 yds rushing/30 yds rec

Prediction: Cowboys 24 Chiefs 20

Falcons @ 49ers (Eakin)

Matt Ryan/Roddy White/Michael Jenkins/Tony Gonzales
Michael Turner (vs. SF)

SF FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -14.5%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -18.8%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -1.9%
SF FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -66.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: This game features a terrific match-up in TE Tony Gonzales, off to a great start, versus the 49er defense allowing the second fewest points to opposing TEs. With a tough match-up at TE look for QB Matt Ryan to try getting his top WR Roddy White active early. White is off to a slow start and they need teams to honor his big play ability to free up rushing lanes. It won’t be easy as White will be up against a solid cover CB in Nate Clements. RB Jerious Norwood is back from a concussion and expected to play. He’s an excellent check-down option for Ryan as a third down RB and will help their pass attack.

The Niner’s need to disguise their pre-snap coverages to keep QB Matt Ryan off balance. Ryan is a heady QB that can exploit defenses when he knows what is coming. San Francisco has the diversity to create pressure from every layer with two Free Safety sacks, five Line Backer sacks, and four defensive line sacks recorded through four games.

Running Game Thoughts: While preseason fantasy forecasts can often be way off the mark, most were right on the money with Michael Turner. Through a quarter of the season, he is good, but not dominant. He has two scores through four games, is averaging a workman-like 3.5 per carry, and has rushed for less than 70 yards in two out of three games with his lone 100-yard day against the league worst Carolina rush defense. Make it three out of four under 100 yards after facing a physical 49er defensive front with the home crowd behind them.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 220 yds/1 TDs
Roddy White: 70 yds/1 TD
Michael Jenkins: 45 yds
Tony Gonzales: 60 yds
Michael Turner: 85 yds rushing/1 TD
Jerious Norwood: 20 yds rushing/30 rec

Shaun Hill/Isaac Bruce/Josh Morgan/Vernon Davis/
Glenn Coffee (vs. ATL)

ATL FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -10.2%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +24.6%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -17.7%
ATL FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +24.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Newly signed rookie Michael Crabtree will not be active until after their week 6 bye. TE Vernon Davis is on a roll with a score in three straight games and the Atlanta defense is a better than average match-up so he has a good shot at four in a row. Another continuing trend I suggested keeping an eye on in last week’s column was the progress of WR Josh Morgan. Although far from a stellar day with only two catches for 39 yards, he did produce better numbers than Isaac Bruce for the 2nd straight week, including one TD and another easy TD pass dropped. If Crabtree starts by year’s end, Morgan is making a case to start over Bruce.

The Falcons young DE Jamal Anderson is approaching bust status with three tackles and no sacks on the year. To compensate, Atlanta is subbing DE Kroy Bierman on obvious passing downs. Bierman may not be as talented but has a much higher motor. He is the only sack threat not named John Abraham. LT Joe Staley versus Abraham will be the key battle. Staley will struggle to keep him blocked. QB Shaun Hill has already been sacked 13 times on the year. Look for Hill to use his mobility by rolling out of the pocket to buy time and avoid Abraham.

Running Game Thoughts: Rookie RB Glenn Coffee’s debut went well with over a 100 total yards but may not have quite lived up to the huge expectations. A couple notes on his performance; three YPC against a poor Rams run defense is not ideal. Four catches for 37 yds shows good diversity in his game and ways he can be used to attack defenses. He was a TD away from a really good day but three scores by the defense steals opportunity from offensive players. Therefore, there were some good things to take away from his first start but he is certainly no Frank Gore yet. I see a similar day against an Atlanta defense that has struggled itself to stop the run. His damage may come as much from catches out of the backfield as rushing.

Prediction:
Shaun Hill: 190 yds/1 TDs
Isaac Bruce: 40 yds
Josh Morgan: 50 yds
Vernon Davis: 60 yds/1 TD
Glenn Coffee: 75 yds rushing/40 rec/1 TD

Prediction: San Francisco 21 Atlanta 20

Vikings @ Rams (Eakin)

Brett Favre/Bernard Berrian/Percy Harvin/Sydney Rice/Visanthe Shiancoe
Adrian Peterson (vs. STL)

STL FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +18.2%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -4.7%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +0.3%
STL FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +41.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: It will be interesting to see if the Vikings return to their cautious approach with Favre after opening it up against the Packers. They can probably win this game without putting him at risk so if they do come out firing it may benefit the offensive stats short-term but would indicate they forgot his age. I think they do play close to the vest, which means more underneath stuff to Harvin and Shiancoe and even Chester Taylor rather than Berrian and Rice on deeper routes.

Running Game Thoughts: I like “All Day” Adrian Peterson to be more like “3/4 day” Adrian Peterson with enough yards and scores to keep him near the top of the fantasy charts at RB this week despite limited action in an easy win. Chester Taylor could get a lot of garbage time work and makes for a good flex option. The Rams just do not stand much chance of slowing the Vikings down.

Projections:
Brett Favre: 200 yds/2 TD
Bernard Berrian: 40 yds
Sydney Rice: 40 yds/1 TD
Percy Harvin: 40 yds/1 TD
Adrian Peterson: 130 yds/1 TD
Chester Taylor: 30 yds/30 yds rec

Kyle Boller/Donnie Avery/Keenan Burton/Randy McMichael
Steven Jackson (vs. MIN)

MIN FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +1.2%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -38.8%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -31.9%
MIN FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +102.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Kyle Boller looks to get his second start for injured Marc Bulger. His first outing mustered a forgettable 108 yds on 24 attempts. They were short or WR talent coming in to the year, have lost a starter in Laurent Robinson for the year, his replacement Keenan Burton is questionable with a hamstring, and Burtons replacement, Ruvell Martin is also questionable. The good news is that rookie T Jason Smith is on the mend and may be available to help protect Boller. Donnie Avery posted his best performance of the year last week so perhaps he is ready to put his poor start behind him.

Jared Allen is not an ideal match-up for LT Alex Barron whom was benched mid-game last week. Allen is coming off a five-sack performance and will make Kyle Boller’s life miserable for the afternoon.

Running Game Thoughts: The “Williams Wall” isn’t the dominant shut down force of last year just yet but they are still a formidable run defense. Only Kevin Smith has eclipsed 60 yds on them. The Viking will not have to worry about much of a pass threat so they will be entirely focused on Steven Jackson. He has the talent to beat good defenders, but not nine of them. LBs Leber, Henderson, and Greenway will have few threats other than Jackson to focus on.

Projection:
Kyle Boller: 175 yds/1 TD/2 INT
Donnie Avery: 65 yds/1 TD
Keenan Burton: 40 yds
Randy McMichael: 20 yds
Steven Jackson: 75 yds/35 rec

Prediction: Minnesota 31 St. Louis 10

Jaguars @ Seahawks (Eakin)

David Garrard/Mike Sims-Walker/Torry Holt/Marcedes Lewis
Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. SEA)

SEA FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -7.9%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +16.6%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +5.9%
SEA FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -12.0%

Passing Game Thoughts: Garrard is on a roll coming off his best performance of the year, possibly fueled by speculation of Jacksonville drafting local hero Tim Tebow for increased marketability. Of course, it could also be fueled by the emergence of targets Mike Sims-Walker and Marcedes Lewis. Both are gifted athletes and capable of continuing their fantasy friendly ways.

Top CB Marcus Trufant is on the PUP list until week six, leaving Seattle short-handed in the secondary. Leading pass rusher Patrick Kerney is doubtful to play so Darryl Tapp will get his first start and need to help with pressure. Protecting Garrard are two rookies at left and right tackle. They are holding up allowing seven sacks thus far. Not bad for a QB that likes to move around.

Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew is thriving in his role as the focal point of the offense. Coming out of college he was billed as Reggie Bush-lite. My how things change. Jones-Drew is the most well rounded RB in football. He has the feet of a scat back, the short-yardage skills of a bruiser, and the soft hands of a WR. They will look to punish the poor Seattle run defense to open up shots downfield to Sims-Walker.

Lofa Tatupu is needs to hold Jones-Drew in check to give Seattle a chance. He is their leading tackler at MLB and will spy Jones-Drew all day.

Projections:
David Garrard: 250 yds/2 TD/1 INT
Mike Sims-Walker: 75 yds/1 TD
Torry Holt: 40 yds
Marcedes Lewis: 55 yds
Maurice Jones-Drew: 85 yds/35 yds rec/2 TD

Matt Hasselbeck/Nate Burleson/T.J. Houshmandzadeh/John Carlson
Julius Jones (vs. JAC)

JAC FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +24.1%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -6.8%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +51.3%
JAC FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -25.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Hasselbeck is practicing as of writing this but no way to know if he goes. I don’t think there will be a huge difference in play calling regardless of whether he or Seneca Wallace plays. Seattle is desperate for a home win after dropping the last three games. Wallace had decent numbers against the Colts largely because they were playing catch-up all day. They do not want to get in a shoot-out. They have a precision passing game that is built around possession WRs. TE John Carlson should have a big day exploiting the middle of the field. T.J. Houshmandzadeh finally had a performance worthy of his expectations with eight receptions for 108 yds. Clearly, the Colts recognized Burleson as their biggest threat and shifted coverage at him. If Housh can keep it up then Seattle will have the balance needed to turn their season around.

Running Game Thoughts: Julius Jones wasn’t able to get on track facing the supposedly weak Colts run defense, finishing up with 45 yds on 14 touches. His production continues to be unpredictable. He struggles against weak opponents and then performs well when you think he won’t. I can tell you that Jacksonville is 15th in RB FPTs allowed. It appears to be a favorable match-up for him.

MLB Justin Durant is the key to stopping Jones. He is a high volume tackler and among the league leaders in stops. Look for Seattle to get Jones out in space to see if he can shake him for some big gains. If not, Seattle will still want to keep running for balance and clock management. The Jags will counter by focusing on the run and forcing the Seahawks to become reliant on the passing game.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 255 yds/2 TD/1 INT
Nate Burleson: 65 yds/ 1 TD
T.J. Houshmandzadeh: 50 yds
John Carlson: 75 yds/1 TD
Julius Jones: 75 yds/25 yds rec

Prediction: Jacksonville 27 Seattle 24

Texans @ Cardinals (Eakin)

Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson/Kevin Walter/Owen Daniels
Steve Slaton (vs. ARI)

ARI FF Points Allowed vs. QB: +33.0%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -13.8%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. WR: +35.2%
ARI FF Points Allowed vs. TE: +31.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: 34-24-29. That’s the Texan’s scoring since their opening day disaster against a Jets defense that has shutdown everyone else they’ve faced. Everyone knows Andre Johnson is one of the best WRs in the NFL. The key for the Texans is their ability to exploit teams giving Johnson too much coverage with TE Owen Daniels and WR Kevin Walter. Walters is a capable of making gambling CBs like Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie pay. Houston has a big size advantage at WR over the smaller Arizona CBs.

Running Game Thoughts: Steve Slaton had his expected breakout performance of the year---sort of. His 32-yard TD jaunt was nice but covered up his disappointing 65 yds on 21 carries against a Raider defense most would expect a top tier RB to shred. Another 8-8 season is in the cards for the Texans if they can’t get Slaton on track. Arizona is quietly tough against the run and can win if they keep Slaton owners longing.

Projections:
Matt Schaub: 300 yds/2 TD/2 INT
Andre Johnson: 100 yds/1 TD
Kevin Walter: 70 yds/1 TD
Owen Daniels: 60 yds
Steve Slaton: 65 yds/20 rec/1 TD

Kurt Warner/Larry Fitzgerald/Anquan Boldin/Steve Breaston
Beanie Wells/Tim Hightower (vs. HOU)

HOU FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -14.5%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. RB: +56.5%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -22.1%
HOU FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -33.9%

Passing Game Thoughts: Arizona needs to find a way to get vertical. None of the starting WRs Breaston, Boldin, or Fitzgerald has yet gained over 25 yards on a play from scrimmage. Warner has not looked comfortable in the pocket. He was nursing a sore shoulder but all of their weapons look to be healthy and firing on all cylinders coming out of the bye week.

The key will be if Super Mario Williams can collapse the pocket and force Warner to his check-downs, which Warner has been very willing to do thus far. Warner has little mobility and is susceptible to turning the ball over when pressured, especially fumbles.

Running Game Thoughts: Not sure why the Cards never challenged the Colts on the ground but maybe they made adjustments coming out of their bye week. Though rookie Beanie Wells appears more dangerous, Hightower has remained the clear starter. Hightower is averaging 3.4 YPC to Well’s 4.4. Coaches have expressed their need for Wells to improve his blocking schemes to see more playing time. If they found comfort during their bye, it’s possible we will see Wells step in to the feature role. The Texans defense is fourth worst in RB FPTs allowed.

Projections:
Kurt Warner: 285 yds/2 TDs/2 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 100 yds/1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 80 yds/1 TD
Steve Breaston: 60 yds
Tim Hightower: 35 yds/ 30 rec
Beanie Wells: 45 yds/1 TD

Prediction: Arizona 31 Houston 27

Patriots @ Broncos (Eakin)

Tom Brady/Randy Moss/Wes Welker/Ben Watson
Sammy Morris / Laurence Maroney (vs. DEN)

DEN FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -47.5%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -24.4%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -40.1%
DEN FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -69.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Tough match-up for both teams here. The key will be CB Champ Bailey, last week’s hero, against WR Randy Moss. Two generational best players just past the peak of their prime. Moss leads the league in targets yet has just one TD on the year. A key for Moss will be LT Matt Light versus OLB Elvis Dumervil. Dumervil is on fire with a NFL best eight sacks. NE will help Light by keeping a TE or RB in to chip. All signs indicate that Wes Welker is a go. He will play a big role in moving the chains if the Pats struggle to run the ball. Keep an eye on Sam Aiken. He may be a better fit than Julian Edelman at the third WR spot since Edelman is Welker-Lite and not a complimentary intermediate threat.

Running Game Thoughts: I wrote last week “The Denver defense has played well against some mediocre teams. I tend to believe in their pass defense but want to see more against the run. Elvis Dumervil is their MVP so far. He gets great pressure off the edge. His speed will be a big pass protection problem for the bullishly large but slow Dallas O-Line.”

Not sure what we learned beyond that by them shutting down a questionable Dallas Offense. Dallas did run on them effectively in the first half and then went pass happy (inexplicably) again, I’m not sold on the Denver run defense just yet. The Patriots do not have one fantasy-stud RB but they do run the ball well as a whole. If they come out running, Sammy Morris is the safest play. Morris was the hot hand last week, Fred Taylor the week before, but Taylor is expected to need surgery on his ankle he hurt late last week and no one can say for sure whom it will be this week except the man behind the curtain, Mr. OZ, Bill Belichick.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 270 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Randy Moss: 80 yds/1 TD
Wes Welker: 75 yds
Ben Watson: 45 yds/1 TD
Sammy Morris: 65 yds/20 rec/1 TD

Kyle Orton/Brandon Marshall/Eddie Royal/Daniel Graham
Knowshon Moreno/(vs. NE)

NE FF Points Allowed vs. QB: -13.5%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. RB: -3.7%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. WR: -24.0%
NE FF Points Allowed vs. TE: -15.6%

Passing Game Thoughts: Denver may really struggle to score against the under-rated Patriot Defense. Outside of one heroic play by Brandon Marshall, they struggled to exploit a weak Cowboy secondary. The Patriots posses a much better secondary and may clog the line of scrimmage to pressure Orton and force him out of his comfort zone. Denver has showed little desire to challenge defenses vertically, so until they do, New England will feel safe to sell-out on Orton and the run game.

Safety Brandon Meriwether is really progressing as a key playmaker and Orton will be wise to seek him out pre-snap. One or two turnovers will decide this game and both teams do well on that front. CB Leigh Bodden has played well but Brandon Marshall certainly represents his toughest assignment to date.

Running Game Thoughts: Denver’s will be without RB Correll Buckhalter who has been an extremely pleasant addition running wide. It may be time for Knowshon Moreno to shine with increased opportunity, but NE represents a tough path to glory. MLB Gary Guyton has done well filling in for Jerrod Mayo, and will team up with DT Vince Wilfork (questionable; ankle) to clog up the middle where Moreno has done most his work. It will be good to see if Moreno has the skill to be as effective on the edge as Buckhalter has been.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 210 yds/1 TD
Brandon Marshall: 60 yds/1 TD
Eddie Royal: 30 yds
Daniel Graham: 25 yds
Knowshon Moreno: 80 yds/1 TD

Prediction: New England 21 Denver 17

Redskins @ Panthers (Kilroy)

Jason Campbell / Clinton Portis
Santana Moss / Antwaan Randle El / Chris Cooley (vs. Carolina)

CAR FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +8.3%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +33.7%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -33.3%
CAR FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +35.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: The Redskins passing attack hasn’t given fantasy owners much to talk about. Even though he’s completed 65.3% of his attempts, quarterback Jason Campbell has been inconsistent with his play. He’s currently averaging 240 passing yards per game, but that number is inflated in part due to a 340 yard outing against the Lions in Week 3. His five touchdown passes have also been offset by the five interceptions he has thrown through four games. As a result of Campbell’s struggles, the Redskins receivers have also failed to produce much in the way of meaningful stats.

Through the first two games, lead receiver Santana Moss had just 5 receptions for 41 yards. He tacked on 10 receptions for another 178 yards and a score during Washington’s loss to Detroit, but last Sunday against Tampa Bay he was limited to 2 catches. While one of the passes he hauled in was good for a 59 yard touchdown reception, it’s still disheartening to know he hasn’t been featured more often.

The only other Redskin receiver of note to this point in the season has been Antwaan Randle El. After a 7 catch, 98 yard performance in the opener however, Randle El has been limited to 6 catches for 60 yards in his last three outings. The lone bright spot, and most consistent performer among Washington’s receiving targets, has been tight end Chris Cooley. Cooley has caught five or more passes in three of four games played, has two touchdowns receptions, and 254 yards receiving. He should be in for another strong outing this Sunday against the Panthers as Carolina has already struggled to defend the likes of Brent Celek, Tony Gonzalez, and Jason Witten.

As for the other elements that make up Washington’s passing arsenal expect fairly pedestrian numbers. The Panthers defense is currently holding teams to just below 180 passing yards per game, but are ranked dead last against the run. That being the case, Washington is likely to pound the rock more than they throw it this week, much like they did last Sunday in their win over the Buccaneers.

Running Game Thoughts: Clinton Portis is off to a bit of a slow start this year, but his outing last week was encouraging. After being limited to fewer than 20 carries in each of his first three games, Washington finally stuck by their rushing attack throughout a full contest. As a result, Portis carried the ball 25 times and produced 98 yards. Those numbers still fall shy of what we’ve come to expect from the eighth year veteran, but it’s a step in the right direction. It’s also an encouraging sign that Portis was not listed on the Redskins injury report this week.

While all of that is good news for the Redskins offense, it comes at a bad time for the Panthers. Carolina is already struggling against the run, allowing a league worst 182.7 yards per game on the ground. They let up 110 combined rushing yards to the Eagles Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy in Week 1. The following week it was Atlanta’s Michael Turner cracking the century mark while scoring a touchdown. In Week 3 the Panthers then allowed the Cowboys tandem of Felix Jones and Tashard Choice to produce 176 yards and a score against them.

Coming off the BYE in Week 4, Carolina’s defenders may be well rested and prove more capable of shutting down their opponent’s rushing attack, but for the most part expect Portis to have his most productive outing of the year to date.

Projections:
Jason Campbell – 205 yards passing / 1 TD
Clinton Portis – 105 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
Santana Moss – 65 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Antwaan Randle El – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Chris Cooley – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD

Jake Delhomme / DeAngelo Williams
Jonathan Stewart / Steve Smith / Muhsin Muhammad (vs. Washington)

WAS FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -20.2%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -20.3%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: -5.8%
WAS FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -49.3%

Passing Game Thoughts: Despite an awful start to the season, Panthers coach Jon Fox remains committed to Jake Delhomme as his starting quarterback. If Delhomme struggles again this week however, Fox may be forced to bench his starter in favor of Matt Moore or A.J. Feeley.

Through three games, Delhomme is averaging a very mediocre 200 passing yards per contest, has thrown only 2 touchdowns, and has already been accountable for 7 interceptions. The miscues have meant limited opportunities for his wide receivers with Steve Smith’s 8 catch, 131 yard outing against the Falcons in Week 2 the only notable performance among them. Muhsin Muhammad’s been a consistent 40-55 yard producer on a weekly basis, but has done little to make a meaningful impact on the offense.

With the Washington Redskins defense allowing just 173.5 passing yards per game (4th best in the NFL); it seems Delhomme will be in for another difficult outing. He’ll need to limit the turnovers in order to have a worthwhile day, but even if he does so it’s doubtful he’ll produce better than 1 touchdown and with roughly 200 yards passing.

Running Game Thoughts: Carolina’s passing woes have had an adverse effect on their running game. Most notable has been the drop in rushing attempts between this year and last. After averaging 31.5 attempts per game in 2008, the Panthers have managed only 23.7 attempts per outing during their first three contests of the 2009 campaign. The fewer number of carries has resulted in an average reduction of 50 rushing yards per game between the Panthers of ’08 (152.3) and this year’s version (101.0).

With the Redskins defense limiting opponents through the air like they have so far, its doubtful Carolina’s rushing attack will get back into their ’08 rhythm this Sunday, especially if Delhomme continues to turn the ball over. Washington is allowing teams to rush for 128.0 yards per game against them, but have given up only 1 touchdown via the ground. All things considered, expect DeAngelo Williams to have a solid performance with Jonathan Stewart gaining 40-50 yards of his own this week. Owners of these two may be disappointed though if they fail to reach the end zone.

Projections:
Jake Delhomme – 190 yards passing / 1 TD
DeAngelo Williams – 80 yards rushing / 1 TD / 15 yards receiving
Jonathan Stewart – 45 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 10 yards receiving
Steve Smith – 80 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Muhsin Muhammad – 50 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Washington 20, Carolina 17

Colts @ Titans (Kilroy)

Peyton Manning / Joseph Addai / Donald Brown
Reggie Wayne / Pierre Garcon / Austin Collie / Dallas Clark (vs. Tennessee)

TEN FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: +50.8%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: -46.8%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +65.3%
TEN FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: +61.8%

Passing Game Thoughts: Everyone knows Tennessee has been struggling against the pass this year. Their 282.2 passing yards allowed per game ranks worst in NFL. The 10 touchdown passes they’ve allowed is second most in the league. Meanwhile, the Colts passing attack has never looked better. Peyton Manning has begun the season with four straight 300 plus yard outings. He also has 9 touchdown passes while spreading the ball amongst all the weapons at his disposal. This includes second year wide outs Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie, both of whom are benefitting from the loss of Anthony Gonzalez.

The most recent passing attack Tennessee has fallen victim to be that of the Jacksonville Jaguars. David Garrard had the best game of his career against Tennessee last week as he threw for 323 yards, with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. He did so by connecting with the emerging Mike Sims-Walker on 7 passes, for 91 yards, and 2 scores. He also found tight Marcedes Lewis 4 times for 76 yards and a touchdown. The majority of the remaining passing yardage was spread amongst Torry Holt, Mike Thomas, Ernest Wilford, and Maurice Jones-Drew.

Needless to say, if David Garrard was capable of producing such statistics against the Titans while spreading the ball amongst eight different receivers, the possibilities for Peyton Manning this week seem limitless. He should produce another fantastic outing. All of his receiving targets remain threats to do the same as well, with Austin Collie the only one you may consider benching.

Running Game Thoughts: The thought process here is pretty simple. Indianapolis’ running backs have been productive, but as a whole they are producing an average of just 84.0 yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s defense – for as putrid as they’ve been against the pass, has been among the better run stopping units in the league by limiting opponents to just under 80 rushing yards per game against them.

Given this, it’s doubtful the duo of Joseph Addai and Donald Brown will combine for more than 100 yards rushing this week. One or both of them may be able to find the end zone however, and Joseph Addai should produce some decent yardage as a receiver out of the backfield.

Projections:
Peyton Manning – 335 yards passing / 3 TDs
Joseph Addai – 50 yards rushing / 1 TD / 30 yards receiving
Donald Brown – 35 yards rushing / 0 TDs / 15 yards receiving
Reggie Wayne – 110 yards receiving / 1 TD
Pierre Garcon – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Austin Collie – 35 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Dallas Clark – 75 yards receiving / 1 TD

Kerry Collins / Chris Johnson / LenDale White
Nate Washington / Justin Gage / Kenny Britt / Bo Scaife (vs. Indianapolis)

IND FF Points Allowed vs. QBs: -17.1%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. RBs: +0.7%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. WRs: +0.1%
IND FF Points Allowed vs. TEs: -70.1%

Passing Game Thoughts: Tennessee’s passing attack has been producing somewhat better results than expected, but for the most part it’s due to them playing from behind and in higher scoring games more often than they’d prefer. Kerry Collins has made good use of rookie wide receiver Kenny Britt, and has also connected with new comer Nate Washington for a touchdown in each of the last three games. Veteran Justin Gage has been pretty quiet since his 7 catch, 78 yard, 1 touchdown performance in the opener.

Given the belief Tennessee will yet again be trying to keep pace with the scoring of their opponent’s offense, Kerry Collins is likely to throw for 225 or more yards. It’s worth keeping in mind however that Indianapolis’ defense is currently allowing just over 200 yards passing per game. They’ve only allowed 2 touchdown passes against them as well.

When you factor everything together it looks like one can expect more of the same from Collins and his receivers this week. In other words, you don’t want to be relying on any of them as a starter in your line-ups.

Running Game Thoughts: Tennessee may rank 7th in the league with an average of 137.0 rushing yards per game, but the number is largely skewed due to the 197 yard outing Chris Johnson had in Week 2 against the Houston Texans. That outing also happens to be the only one in which Johnson has reached the end zone (albeit three times).

The second year back has had productive outings in each of the two games that have followed, but he’s only carried the ball more than 16 times once this season. This again is the result of Tennessee’s inability to defend the pass. With the Titans allowing an average of 27 points per game to be scored against them, the offense is forced to abandon the run and air it out in attempt to even the score.

Unfortunately for Johnson owners, things are likely to play out the same for Tennessee this week against the Colts. Johnson should again post 80 or more yards on the ground, but if he doesn’t score early it’s likely he won’t at all. For the same reason Johnson’s opportunities have been reduced, LenDale White’s are also. He’s almost become a nonfactor for the Titans at this point.

Projections:
Kerry Collins – 230 yards passing / 1 TD
Chris Johnson – 85 yards rushing / 1 TD / 10 yards receiving
LenDale White – 20 yards rushing / 0 TDs
Nate Washington – 60 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Justin Gage – 40 yards receiving / 1 TD
Kenny Britt – 75 yards receiving / 0 TDs
Bo Scaife – 30 yards receiving / 0 TDs

Prediction: Indianapolis 31, Tennessee 17