Chiefs at Eagles
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Only two
teams have yet to commit a turnover this season and one of them
is the Kansas City Chiefs (other is Tennessee Titans). The plan
for QB Alex Smith involves good decision-making and game management
and so far he’s delivered beautifully in guiding the Chiefs
to a 2-0 start. He has also led his team to a touchdown on all
five of their red zone appearances, four of which were TD passes.
Smith averages roughly 200 yards passing and two touchdowns per
game with a 60% completion rate; he’s not blowing anyone
away with those numbers but he is efficient, protects the football,
and continues to put his team in a position to win. The top targets
in Kansas City are WR Dwayne Bowe and RB Jamaal Charles but Smith
has done well to spread the ball around to at least six other
receivers. Defenses that prey on mistakes, such as Dallas in game
two, will be disappointed against the Chiefs.
The Kansas City offense doesn’t throw interceptions and
the Philadelphia defense doesn’t create any unless the opposing
quarterback makes a serious mistake, so on paper the Chiefs passing
game should be in good shape on tonight. The Eagles surrendered
over 325 yards to a rusty and out-of-sync Robert Griffin III and
over 400 yards to Philip Rivers in consecutive weeks. Smith doesn’t
throw as frequently as either of those two QBs but he should expect
to see just as much success as they did. Philadelphia hasn’t
been able to generate much of a pass rush and the Kansas City
offensive line has done a reasonable job keeping Smith upright.
Look for all of these trends to continue into week three as the
Eagles have shown no signs of improvement defensively and the
Chiefs continue to play mistake-free.
Running Game Thoughts: Similar to the passing game, the Chiefs
rushing attack has been statistically underwhelming but has also
been equally free of turnovers. Unlike the player throwing the
ball though the man at the middle of the running game is a star
with phenomenal potential, so the mediocre numbers on the ground
come almost as a disappointment. RB Jamaal Charles has yet to
record a gain over 20 yards though he’s had several plays
which have gained 15-18. He has recorded back-to-back games with
16 carries in addition to several touches in the passing game.
While he isn’t turning in big games or busting off huge
gains he is staying fresh and healthy and not being asked to shoulder
the load for Kansas City. As defenses begin to respect the passing
attach more, Charles will see additional opportunities on the
ground and will be able to take advantage of those holes thanks
to the way he is being managed in the Chiefs game plan.
By default, the area of defensive strength for the Eagles is
against the rush. In each of the first two games they’ve
allowed an average of 4.1 yards per rush, though considering the
sieve-like quality to the secondary, this should be considered
an excellent mark. With so much attention paid to the Eagles new
offense it is often overlooked that they are extremely poor on
defense. Kansas City was able to rush reasonably well against
Dallas, even if half of their rushing yards did come from Smith,
and they should expect to see even more success against the suspect
Eagles defense. The most significant difference between the Chiefs
and the prior two Philadelphia opponents is the lack of an established
tight end as an additional passing threat to keep the defense
balanced, though based on performances from the first two weeks
it is hard to imagine that any sort of change could possibly work
out in favor of the Eagles.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 230 pass yds, 2 TDs / 40 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 130 rush yds, 1 TD / 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Bowe: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Donnie Avery: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: The good news for Philadelphia is that the
new offense works spectacularly and when run optimally, it is
almost a thing of beauty. The bad news is that no matter how many
points they score they’re going to have a hard time putting
up more points than their defense gives up. But for now, focus
on the good news. After the week one victory Coach Kelly expressed
displeasure in the speed of the game and in week two the Eagles
got plays off roughly five seconds quicker than the week before.
It was a personal best day for QB Michael Vick who threw for 428
yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. The top receiver
is far and away WR DeSean Jackson who had another monster game,
recording nine catches for 193 yards and a touchdown. The combination
of player speed, quick decisions, creative movement, and rapid
play calling have made it nearly impossible for defenses to disrupt
the Vick to Jackson connection. As if that weren’t enough,
RB LeSean McCoy erupted for a career high 114 receiving yards
out of the backfield on five catches, including a 70 catch and
run. As predicted, teams still don’t have an answer for
the Eagles up-tempo offense.
Vick and Jackson have to be chomping at the bit heading into
Thursday after the Chiefs surrendered nine catches for 141 yards
and a touchdown to WR Dez Bryant in Week 2. He did the majority
of his damage in the first half but until significant adjustments
were made there seemed to be no stopping the star receiver. Jackson
isn’t the physical presence that Bryant is but he is lightning
quick to make up for it. Kansas City Coach Andy Reid is familiar
with Vick and Jackson from his time as the Eagles head coach,
but under the new Chip Kelly system I’m not sure how much
good that prior experience will be to the Chiefs. The matchup
to watch for will be the pass rush of Kansas City against the
offensive line of Philadelphia; through two games the Chiefs have
recorded nine sacks and the Eagles have only surrendered four.
The ability (or inability) to pressure the QB will go a long way
to dictate the success that Vick will (or won’t) have.
Running Game Thoughts: At the risk of meaningless over-generalization,
Philadelphia is a better team when they run the ball effectively.
Comparing the rushing statistics from games one and two confirms
this assessment, whereas in the victory they averaged 5.4 yards
per carry and totaled over 260 yards on the ground and in defeat
they averaged 4.5 yards per carry and gained less than 90 yards
rushing. The Eagles defense isn’t good enough to succeed
with an average or slightly better-than-average rushing attack;
it needs a stellar run game to be able to stand a fighting chance
of earning the win. McCoy has all the physical tools needed to
propel the Eagles ground game to greatness but he needs to be
given the opportunity to do so. He only saw 11 carries in the
game two loss and despite the number of receptions he has it is
imperative that he carry the ball frequently. A more substantial
rushing attack will also give the defense a chance to rest. The
only thing worse than a bad defense is a bad defense that is tired;
McCoy is the answer to that problem.
Unfortunately for Philadelphia on Sunday they’ll face one
of the top rushing defenses of the early 2013 season. Kansas City
has allowed only two rushes of 10 yards or greater, held RB Maurice
Jones-Drew below 50 yards, and didn’t permit 40 yards to
the entire Cowboys team. Additionally, on the longest run they
allowed the Chiefs forced a fumble so the play resulted in a net
gain for the defense because of the turnover. Compared to those
two teams however the Eagles ought to have a better, or at least
less injured, offensive line and thus should stand a better chance
of being able to make something work on the ground. The Chip Kelly
offense is built around running the ball and the plethora of options
that opens up, facing the strength of the Chiefs run defense will
be the first true test to the new system.
Projections:
Michael Vick: 220 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs / 30 rush yds, 1 fumble
LeSean McCoy: 80 rush yds, 1 TD / 40 rec yds, 1 TD
DeSean Jackson: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Eagles 24 ^ Top
Jaguars @ Seahawks
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Chad
Henne Project didn’t fare much better than the Blaine Gabbert
Project last week as the Jaguars were once again trounced, this
time on the road in Oakland by a final score of 19-9. Through
the first two games of the season, the Raiders have scored just
11 total points: one safety, one field goal and one garbage-time
touchdown (which they then failed to convert a two-point conversion).
To say that things have gotten off to a horrendous start for Jacksonville
would be an understatement. The only player in the entire offense
who has performed even close to par so far has been wide receiver
Cecil Shorts, who caught eight passes for 93 yards in Week 2.
Until Justin Blackmon returns, Shorts is the only player in the
passing game who should even be considered for fantasy purposes.
There might not be a worse offense-versus-defense matchup this
season than the Jaguars offense against the Seahawks—one
of the league’s best secondaries—in Seattle. This
gigantic, physical group of corners and safeties shut down opposing
passing games a season ago when they averaged allowing just 10.2
fantasy points per game to opposing QB’s. They’re
already off to a great start in 2013, having allowed just 252
yards passing so far this season with one touchdown while forcing
three interceptions. As said above, the only player worth any
fantasy consideration for the Jaguars passing game is Cecil Shorts.
Even then, he will almost certainly be blanketed all day by Richard
Sherman, so temper your expectations.
Running Game Thoughts: As bad as their passing game has been
in recent seasons, Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew has
somehow remained productive. But through two weeks so far in 2013,
it looks as if the lack of production around him, combined with
a multitude of injuries, might have finally caught up to him.
Jones-Drew has rushed for just 72 yards this season and hasn’t
done much as a receiver. Not only that, he hasn’t been able
to get into the end zone and given how bad the Jaguars offense
as a whole has been, it’s hard to believe that he’ll
have many opportunities this season.
Jones-Drew is, at best, an RB3 this week against a very good
Seattle defense. The Seahawks have allowed just 109 yards on the
ground to running backs so far this year and have yet to allow
a touchdown to the position. With the Jaguars unlikely to be able
to keep up with the Seattle offense, it seems very possible that
they will be passing for most of the afternoon. Worse yet, Jones-Drew
has missed time in practice this week and we still don’t
know if he’s going to be ready to suit up this week. If
he doesn’t play, it is likely that backups Jordan Todman
and Justin Forsett will split snaps, effectively making them completely
useless.
Projections:
Chad Henne: 160 pass yds, 1 INT
Maurice Jones-Drew: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Cecil Shorts: 55 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: It hasn’t been a great start to the
season for second-year starter Russell Wilson who has thrown just
two touchdowns in two games so far. It’s hard to blame him
for lack of production against a very good 49ers defense a week
ago and the fact that the team is 2-0 has kept Wilson from getting
much heat from the media, but fantasy owners should be a little
worried. One of the better running QB’s in the league, Wilson
hasn’t been particularly effective with his feet either,
having rushed for just 40 yards so far. What’s been even
more frustrating for fantasy owners is the complete disappearance
of Sidney Rice and Golden Tate, who have combined for just eight
catches for 118 yards and no touchdowns. In fact, the team’s
most productive receiver has been Doug Baldwin, who himself has
eight catches for 142 yards, including a big 51-yard catch a week
ago against the 49ers. None of these receivers is too enticing
in fantasy at the moment and until we start to see Wilson key
in on one receiver more than the others, it will probably remain
that way.
Jacksonville has been awful on offense so far this year, but
their defense has actually been pretty good. While they’ve
gone against two weak passing attacks in Kansas City and Oakland,
the fact that they’ve allowed just 299 yards passing in
two games has to be considered a big win for the defense. In Week
3, they’ll have to try to stop a mobile quarterback who
can also throw the ball, in Russell Wilson. We have to assume
that Wilson will be more effective than Terrelle Pryor was a week
ago, but given the fact that this game could be out of control
by the end of the first half and the Seahawks are known for running
the clock out with their rushing attack, Wilson’s attempts
could be limited in this one. He’s unlikely to drop a terrible
game on you, but a big game from the Seattle quarterback might
be asking a bit much.
Running Game Thoughts: After a mediocre Week 1 caused some fantasy
owners to panic on running back Marshawn Lynch, those concerns
were put to rest in Week 2 when he went “beast mode”
for 135 total yards and two touchdowns, one as a runner and one
as a receiver. The Seahawks got up on the 49ers early and in typical
Seahawks fashion, they smashed their way to a victory on the back
of Lynch who touched the ball 31 times. Lynch isn’t always
going to have these huge games, but he is about as consistent
of a runner as it gets. Since Week 7 of the 2012 season, Lynch
has only missed hitting double-digit fantasy points (standard
scoring) twice.
Look for that number to continue in Week 3 as Lynch will be
up against a Jacksonville defense that will likely spend a lot
of the day on the field. Although they’ve played better
than these numbers indicate, the Jaguars have struggled to shut
down opposing running backs so far this season. They’ve
already allowed 273 yards on the ground, 108 yards receiving and
two scores to opposing running backs this season, making them
one of the worst statistical run defenses in the league. Lynch
will be licking his chops on this matchup and provided that the
game doesn’t get so out of control that the Seahawks begin
playing their backups. There is real possibility that Lynch touches
the ball more times than any other running back in Week 3. We’ve
seen Robert Turbin get a few touches but this is still the Marshawn
Lynch show and he could put up monster numbers against this Jaguars
defense.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 15 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 135 rush yds, 2 TD, 10 rec yds
Sidney Rice: 50 rec yds
Golden Tate: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Doug Baldwin: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Jaguars
6 ^ Top
Colts @ 49ers
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: One of the
most highly touted quarterback prospects of the past 20 years,
Andrew Luck is really starting to come into his own in his second
season as a pro. Luck has thrown for nearly 500 yards with three
touchdowns and only one interception thus far, also adding 76
yards and a touchdown as a runner. Luck’s top receiver,
Reggie Wayne, had a weak performance in Week 2, but big days from
T.Y. Hilton and tight end Coby Fleener helped make up for that
as the two of them combined for nearly 200 yards against the Dolphins.
Hilton is one of the league’s emerging deep threats and
could be having a huge year right now if it wasn’t for a
few mis-throws from Luck in Week 1. Rumors of Darrius Heyward-Bey
overtaking him as the second-best option in the Colts offense
have been greatly exaggerated as the former Raiders first round
pick has just 43 yards receiving thus far in 2013.
This week Luck will face what will likely be the toughest matchup
he will be up against all season as he and the Colts travel to
San Francisco to play the 49ers. San Francisco is excellent everywhere
on defense, but their secondary isn’t quite as good as their
front seven. Aaron Rodgers attacked them for 333 yards and three
touchdowns through the air in Week 1. While they were significantly
better in Week 2 when they held Russell Wilson to just 142 yards
and one touchdown, those numbers were a bit skewed considering
how far up Seattle was in the second half, thus they didn’t
need to throw the ball much. The skills of Andrew Luck, combined
with the weapons he has at his disposal, make him a threat to
put up 300+ yards every week, even against good pass defenses
like this. We don’t predict that he’ll quite get to
that number, but don’t be scared off by a tough matchup.
If you drafted Luck to be your starter, stick with him.
Running Game Thoughts: It has been an absolutely crazy week for
the Colts as we learned on Wednesday afternoon that the team had
traded their 2014 first round draft pick for the No. 3 pick of
the 2012 NFL draft, running back Trent Richardson. The move caught
the entire league by surprise as Richardson hasn’t gotten
off to a great start in 2013, but did have a nice rookie campaign
that saw him get into the end zone 12 times. Richardson will step
in and immediately assume the role of the Colts’ primary
runner with Vick Ballard having hit the IR and Ahmad Bradshaw’s
failing to live up to expectations thus far. He is a dynamic,
playmaking runner who can also produce at a high level as a receiver
out of the backfield; something that Bradshaw has failed to do.
His first test in the new offense will be about as difficult
as it gets as he will be up against a San Francisco 49ers run
defense that allowed the second-fewest amount of fantasy points
to opposing running backs a season ago. They have been beaten
up a bit on the ground, allowing a total of four touchdowns to
opposing running backs already through two games this year, but
one has to expect that trend won’t continue. The biggest
question in this matchup may be how much Richardson will play
in his first game on the team. He will be learning an entirely
new playbook with new assignments in pass protection, which could
limit him to being mostly a first and second down contributor
until he gets the offense down. This might be more of a 60/40
split to start with Bradshaw still seeing significant snaps, but
don’t bank on Bradshaw being much of a fantasy producer,
at least this week. He has not been great in his limited work
as the Colts’ primary back and trusting him against a very
good San Francisco run defense isn’t worth it.
Projections:
Andrew Luck: 270 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 30 rush yds
Trent Richardson: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Ahmad Bradshaw: 30 rush yds
T.Y. Hilton: 80 rec yds
Reggie Wayne: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Darrius Heyward-Bey: 25 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 20 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: A magnificent Week 1 performance followed
by a disappointing Week 2 performance helps highlight what can
oftentimes be the frustrations of owning a young quarterback like
Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick threw for 412 yards and three scores
and no picks in Week 1, but flipped those stats upside down in
Week 2 when he threw for just 127 yards with no touchdowns and
three picks against the Seahawks. Not only did Kaepernick struggle
against Seattle, but so did his receivers. After a ridiculous
Week 1 in his new home of San Francisco where he caught 13 passes
for 208 yards, Anquan Boldin was held to just one catch for 7
yards in Week 2. It was an embarrassing performance all around
for the 49ers and one which they will look to bounce back from
as they head back home in Week 3.
Kaepernick owners shouldn’t panic too much after his Week
2 line. He has traditionally struggled so far in his career against
Seattle, as many quarterbacks do, and there’s no reason
to think that he won’t bounce back against the Colts this
weekend. Indianapolis has allowed 536 yards through the air already
this year against the likes of Ryan Tannehill and Terrelle Pryor.
What’s probably more intriguing for Kaepernick owners, however,
is that the team looked completely overmatched when trying to
stop Pryor as a runner. The third-year quarterback roasted the
Colts, nearly single-handedly causing a Week 1 upset, when he
tacked on 112 yards on the ground to his 217 passing yards. Kaepernick
looked a little reluctant to run in Week 1 against Green Bay,
but saved his fantasy owners from what could have been negative
points at their quarterback position when he ran for 87 yards
against the Seahawks a week ago. If the Colts don’t watch
their assignments closely, Kaepernick could torture them all day
both through the air and on the ground. Even if you feel burned
by him based on what he did a week ago, I urge you to give Kaepernick
another shot this week against Indianapolis.
Running Game Thoughts: We’ve been hearing about the inevitable
collapse of Frank Gore for years now, but until 2013, we hadn’t
really seen many signs of it. Now in his 9th NFL season, however,
it appears that Gore may finally be hitting the wall. Disappointed
fantasy owners have watched him run for just 60 yards so far this
season and with only three receptions, he hasn’t been doing
much for PPR formats either. It’s hard to believe that he
would have fallen off so harshly, so quickly, but we’ve
seen it time after time with these running backs who get to around
30 years old and lose that extra burst that made them great. Gore
saw the field on roughly 70% of the team’s snaps a week
ago, with Kendall Hunter seeing the field on the majority of the
other snaps, so there’s no reason to think that a change
is coming at running back, but if he doesn’t begin to produce,
San Francisco might have to start looking elsewhere.
He’ll have a chance to get things going in Week 3 as he’ll
be up against one of the worst run defenses in the league from
a season ago. The Colts allowed the third-most rushing yards against
them and with nearly a touchdown per game average on the ground
allowed to opposing running backs, they were a fantasy dream in
2012. They have played better so far on defense in 2013, but they’ve
also been up against Oakland and Miami, who do not have great
offensive lines. Still, they have allowed a touchdown to an opposing
running back in each of those two games, leaving open the possibility
that Gore might be able to make it three in a row. If he throws
up another stinker this week, fantasy owners should begin to get
very worried about a guy who they expected to be a solid, week-to-week
RB2. This is the kind of matchup that he can and should produce
respectable numbers in.
Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 60 rush yds, 1 TD
Frank Gore: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Anquan Boldin: 80 rec yds
Kyle Williams: 30 rec yds
Vernon Davis: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: 49ers 30, Colts 24
^ Top
Raiders @ Broncos
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Much like
other run-first quarterbacks, there are going to be up and down
weeks for Terrelle Pryor. Week 2 was definitely “down”
as Pryor passed for just 126 yards and no touchdowns against a
bad Jacksonville team in a blowout win. He did add 50 yards as
a runner, but it wasn’t quite enough to make him a quality
fantasy starter. Of course, the success that Oakland had with
its power running attack made for fewer opportunities for Pryor
who threw the ball just 24 times on the day, but fantasy owners
can’t really expect that the Raiders are going to win many
blowouts. We still haven’t seen any receiver get comfortable
with Pryor quite yet. It looked as if Denarius Moore might be
the receiver to own in this offense after he caught five passes
and a touchdown in Week 1, but he was held without a catch in
Week 2. Rod Streater does have eight catches so far on the year
including five in Week 1 and three in Week 2, but you’d
really need to be digging deep to consider putting him in your
lineup.
As of right now, the only player who appears to be a worthwhile
fantasy option in this passing game is Pryor himself, whose owners
shouldn’t have to worry about his team getting up multiple
scores and then not passing the ball. Pryor and the Raiders will
head into Denver on Monday night, in what could be one of the
most lopsided games we see all season. With Denver’s offense
clicking as well as it is, they should be lighting up the scoreboard,
leaving Pryor plenty of opportunities to pick up those always
valuable “garbage time” fantasy points. Despite winning
each of their first two games by multiple scores, the Broncos
conceded exactly 362 passing yards to both Joe Flacco and Eli
Manning. Then again, they’ve also forced twice as many interceptions
(6) as they’ve allowed touchdowns (3) through the air, so
Pryor’s numbers might take a bit of a hit if he can’t
keep the ball under control. Still, Pryor is an interesting fantasy
option this week as he will almost certainly contribute something
as a runner and could also put up some nice numbers as a passer.
Running Game Thoughts: The return to a power running scheme has
already paid off for the Oakland Raiders and owners of running
back Darren McFadden. McFadden blew up in Week 2, rushing for
129 yards and adding 28 more as a receiver in his team’s
win over the Jaguars. He looked like his old self as he found
the holes in the defense and ran through them time and time again.
He is also being used more in the passing game both as a check-down
in the passing game and as a straight up wide receiver. He nearly
made an amazing catch down the field in the corner of the end
zone in Week 1, but the pass was just off target. Rashad Jennings
did get involved as he rushed for 32 yards in Week 2, but fantasy
owners need not be worried. McFadden is the focal point of this
offense and as long as he touches the ball, he should produce
decent enough fantasy points to be considered a solid RB2 or low-end
RB1 almost every week.
The question for Week 3 will be how many touches McFadden will
get in what could very well be an ugly, blowout loss to the Broncos.
Denver has allowed just 81 rushing yards on 40 carries against
them this season...an amazing number for a team that is without
Von Miller, one of their best defensive players. Yes, the Broncos
have allowed four total touchdowns to running backs in their two
games against Baltimore and New York, but that’s not really
something that McFadden owners should be banking on. While he
is an extremely skilled player, McFadden has never been much of
a touchdown scorer. He has only scored more than five total touchdowns
in a season once in his entire career. It is worth noting, however,
that he has scored more than twice as many touchdowns against
the Broncos (7) than any other team he has faced throughout his
career. If you have him rostered, you probably need to have him
in your lineup this week against Denver. Just don’t be too
surprised if he barely surpasses single digits in terms of total
touches.
Projections:
Terrelle Pryor: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 50 rush yds
Darren McFadden: 40 rush yds, 1 TD, 50 rec yds
Rod Streater: 60 rush yds
Denarius Moore: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: With nine touchdown passes and 769 passing
yards in just two games, Peyton Manning is well on his way to
winning his NFL record fifth league MVP award. Denver looks to
be the class of the AFC and their offense looks almost completely
unstoppable. The addition of Wes Welker and the emergence of tight
end Julius Thomas, who have combined to catch six of Manning’s
nine touchdown passes, have bolstered what was already one of
the league’s best passing attacks a season ago. There was
some worry as to Eric Decker’s role in the offense after
a two-catch performance in Week 1, but Decker showed up in Week
2, catching a team-high nine passes on 13 targets, for 87 yards.
There will likely be weeks where one or two of these players,
including Demaryius Thomas, could seem to disappear. But rest
assured that Peyton Manning is going to make it up to them when
he gets the opportunity.
In Week 3, Manning will be up against an Oakland Raiders secondary
that is among the very worst in the league. After getting abused
for three total touchdowns by Andrew Luck in Week 1, the Raiders
just got done allowing 241 yards and a touchdown to Jacksonville’s
Chad Henne a week ago and have still not forced an interception.
That trend will very likely continue this week as they go up against
a future first ballot Hall of Famer and a player who recently
tied the NFL record for most touchdown passes in a single game.
Manning dominated the Raiders last year in his two games against
them, throwing for over 300 yards in both contests with four total
touchdowns and only one interception. There is some concern that
Manning will be under more pressure given the injury to Pro Bowl
left tackle Ryan Clady, but Manning gets rid of the ball so quickly
that it’s hard to imagine that being a regular problem.
The biggest question about Manning’s production against
Oakland on Monday night is probably more about when the Broncos
will call off the dogs. This game shouldn’t be close, so
Manning could be handing the ball off a lot in the second half.
Still, he will likely put up enough fantasy points in limited
work to make him worth a start in any format.
Running Game Thoughts: The running back controversy in Denver
appears to be getting clearer in Denver after a nice performance
by Knowshon Moreno a week ago. Ronnie Hillman was deemed the team’s
“starter” going into the year, but has already fallen
completely off the face of the planet as he saw the field for
only two snaps during Denver’s blowout win over the Giants
in Week 2. Instead it was Knowshon Moreno who saw nearly 60% of
the team’s snaps as a running back, with rookie Montee Ball
spelling him about 40% of the time. What they did with their opportunities
was the real story as Ball rushed for just 14 yards on 12 carries
with a fumble. Meanwhile, Moreno had one of his best games as
a pro, rushing for 93 yards on 13 carries, including two nice
touchdown runs. Moreno appears to be the team’s most trusted
runner and given his production compared to Ball’s, it’d
be hard to blame the coaching staff if they ended up giving Moreno
more than 70% of the snaps in Week 3.
Given the possibility of the game getting out of control early,
Moreno should see plenty of action against the Raiders on Monday
night. As crazy as it might sound, Oakland has actually been great
against the run so far this season. They’ve allowed only
123 yards on 36 carries against them, but they’ve also not
allowed a single touchdown to an opposing running back yet this
season. There might be something to the new defense starting to
play together as a unit, but it’d be very tough to believe
that they can sustain this kind of stonewall defense all year.
Oakland allowed exactly 2,400 total yards and 16 touchdowns to
opposing running backs in 2012, making them the fifth-worst defense
in fantasy points allowed to the position. In two games against
the Broncos in 2012, they allowed a total of 413 total yards and
three touchdowns to running backs. Moreno himself put up 167 yards
and one of those touchdowns in their Week 14 contest alone. Some
might worry about Moreno conceding touches to Montee Ball or even
Ronnie Hillman, but he should continue to see the lion’s
share of the carries as long as he doesn’t put the ball
on the ground. Start him with confidence this week as a RB2.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 265 pass yds, 3 TD
Knowshon Moreno: 110 rush yds, 2 TD, 10 rec yds
Montee Ball: 40 rush yds
Demaryius Thomas: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Eric Decker: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 70 rec yds
Julius Thomas: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Broncos 41, Raiders
17 ^ Top
Rams at Cowboys
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: The offseason
buying spree has paid off so far for St. Louis despite their having
a 1-1 record. Two major deficiencies from 2012 have dramatically
improved, with pass protection and receiving weapons both making
statements through two games this season. The Rams have yet to
surrender a sack, partly because of the presence and play of left
tackle Jake Long. At tight end, free agent acquisition Jared Cook
has over 150 yards and two touchdowns, and at wide receiver, first-round
pick Tavon Austin also has two touchdowns to go along with almost
90 yards. The organization believes in quarterback Sam Bradford,
and their faith in him is paying off, as he’s averaging
a 64 percent completion rate and more than 325 yards per game.
He has thrown two interceptions, though neither have come from
a defensive back, so it appears he is not forcing bad throws into
coverage. This may be the first year that Bradford truly lives
up to his billing as a No. 1 overall draft pick.
The Cowboys are best described as having an opportunistic defense.
Against the Giants they benefitted from three interceptions, most
(if not all) of which could be attributed to bad throws from the
quarterback. Against Kansas City and a less gifted quarterback,
the Dallas secondary was unable to force any interceptions, clearly
not able to capitalize on the conservative game plan of the Chiefs
offense. Dallas has injury concerns along the defensive line,
a gifted set of linebackers, and an athletic but unproven secondary.
Despite those three interceptions, on top of three more fumbles,
the Cowboys gave up 450 passing yards to New York and allowed
three different receivers to record more than 100 yards each.
As a unit the Cowboys have recorded seven sacks this season, and
they continue to improve under defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin.
But if Bradford and the Rams are able to avoid mistakes, St. Louis
should overmatch the Dallas defense through the air as the new
playmakers continue to demonstrate their value to the team.
Running Game Thoughts: For all of the preseason talk about a
backfield committee, Daryl Richardson sure has handled the lion’s
share of carries for St. Louis; his 30 carries for 98 yards are
more than the rest of the team combined (12 carries for 38 yards
on rushes from five other players). Both the team and Richardson
average approximately 3.2 yards per attempt, ranking them in the
bottom third of the league in that particular category. They’re
also one of only nine teams to have not scored a rushing touchdown
in either of their first two games. Clearly the emphasis has been
placed on bolstering the passing game, in addition to maintaining
their steadfast defense, but if the Rams are able to become an
assertive rushing threat, they will be one of the most complete
teams in the league. Without that running presence, however, opposing
defenses can key on their receivers and attempt to limit offensive
production that way, since St. Louis has yet to capitalize on
opportunities in the ground game.
For all of their defensive insufficiencies Dallas has done reasonably
well against the run, holding running back Jamaal Charles to only
55 yards on 16 carries and limiting the entire Giants team to
50 yards on 14 attempts. Their biggest vulnerability appears to
be against an opportunistic quarterback who can gain 10-15 yards
on a scramble when the field opens up in front of him. Bradford
has shown this ability at times so if the defense is caught chasing
receivers the Rams quarterback may make them pay for it. The rest
of the running game isn’t likely to be particularly successful,
as the weakness of the St. Louis offense is going against the
strength of the Dallas defense. On Sunday the Rams will need to
run enough that the play action pass fake looks legitimate, keeping
the Cowboys honest , but beyond that gamesmanship, not much effort
should be poured into pounding the ball on the ground when there
will be so many openings through the air.
Projections:
Sam Bradford: 330 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Daryl Richardson: 50 rush yds / 20 rec yds
Tavon Austin: 70 rec yds, 1 TD / 20 rush yds
Jared Cook: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Despite completing more than 71 percent
of his passes and connecting on at least 30 attempts in each of
the first two games, Tony Romo has yet to surpass the 300-yard
mark this season and has only recorded three total touchdowns
along with one interception. These numbers are hard to believe
when you consider that Dallas has one of the league’s premier
receivers in Dez Bryant, along with Jason Witten, one of the most
prolific tight ends in NFL history. Ultimately it comes down to
pass protection, and in that area the Cowboys are not a gifted
team. In all, they’ve surrendered five sacks, roughly average
for the league, but the game plan has included a majority of short,
quick passing routes so the offensive line is not asked to block
for very long. So far the pass protection is working fairly well,
but the yardage and points aren’t reflecting it, and even
if the sack numbers aren’t a problem, Romo is taking hits
much like he was last year. He’s already been taken out
of one game (very briefly) because of a hit and played through
rib/chest discomfort in Week 2 that was a direct result of the
beating he took in Week 1.
Romo will need to be prepared for a third game in a row of pressures,
hits, and sacks when he faces off against the Rams and their talented
pass rushers; the St. Louis front seven has recorded six sacks
already this season. On the back end, however, they give up a
completion rate of over 70 percent and more than 330 yards per
game through the air. When the Rams aren’t recording sacks
or forcing turnovers, they’re probably getting beaten in
pass coverage and surrendering large chunks of yardage. The strength
of Dallas is their pass catchers and the quarterback throwing
to them, and they should see good production against the St. Louis
secondary on Sunday. Unfortunately the weakness along the offensive
line will be challenged frequently by the talented D-line and
linebackers, so the outcome of the game will likely depend on
the Cowboys protecting Romo and giving him time to throw downfield,
an area where they’ve already struggled.
Running Game Thoughts: Compared to their opponent, Dallas may
actually have an advantage on the ground this week, though statistically
they trail just behind the Rams in that area. The Cowboys are
averaging only 62 rushing yards per game, putting them in the
bottom third of NFL teams. The offensive line is mostly to blame
for this, as injuries and inexperience have made it difficult
to establish substantial running lanes. Some of the futility can
also be attributed to play calling, as Dallas has run only 39
rushing plays, nearly 13 fewer than the league average. Through
two games, running back DeMarco Murray has stayed healthy, which
has traditionally been the knock on him, as his physical talents
and playmaking abilities have never been cause for concern. As
linemen recover and become active again, the Dallas running game
should improve, and if Murray can avoid the injury report, the
Cowboys will improve statistically.
Much like their opponent, Dallas faces a difficult task along
the line of scrimmage, especially with respect to a rushing attack.
St. Louis ranks near the top of the league in both yards allowed
and in yards per carry, two areas where the Cowboys certainly
struggle already. Against Atlanta last week the Rams gave up just
one rushing yard in the first half, held Steven Jackson to zero
yards (3 carries), and surrendered a meager 2.3 yards per carry
throughout the entire contest. The silver lining to this gloomy
cloud is that Dallas has a more dynamic playmaker than the Rams
have faced so far this season, so if the offensive line is able
to get any traction, Murray may have the chance to do something
special.
Projections:
Tony Romo: 260 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
DeMarco Murray: 40 rush yds / 40 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Miles Austin: 40 rec yds
Jason Witten: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Rams 24, Cowboys 23
^ Top
Buccaneers at Patriots
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Word around
the water cooler is that quarterback Josh Freeman is looking to
be traded, though both he and the team deny that report. The bigger
issue, however, is his performance on the field, not the rumors
off of it. His best game so far was Week 1, where he threw for
210 yards with a touchdown and an interception on less than a
50 percent completion rate. Week 2 was significantly worse, with
80 fewer yards, one more turnover, and less than 41 percent passing.
Both of those games resulted in last-minute losses and were marred
by personal foul penalties, but the utter futility from Freeman
is the most glaring concern for Tampa Bay. The only marginally
positive thing is that he hasn’t thrown more interceptions
or committed more fumbles. He needs a bounce-back game in a big
way on the road this Sunday. Primary receiver Vincent Jackson
continues to be the lone bright spot in the passing game, accounting
for 231 (69%) of Freeman’s 335 passing yards, 12 of his
24 completions, and 24 targets of Freeman's 53 total passes ,
including throw-aways.
Statistically the Patriots have put forth a top four defense
against the pass in terms of yardage and touchdowns. This may
be more of a reflection on their competition than their defense,
though, as they’ve faced two rookie quarterbacks and a pair
of offenses that aren’t particularly overpowering. Given
the mistakes made against them New England has capitalized on
the opportunities presented by those quarterbacks, but with few
exceptions they have not manufactured their own turnovers or defensive
stops. Against the Bills they did not record a sack, but in Week
2 they were able to get to Geno Smith on four separate occasions,
in addition to a number of other pressures and hurries. Tampa
Bay, by virtue of not having a rookie signal caller, is in a better
offensive situation than either of New England’s first two
opponents, but without noticeable improvement from Freeman, radically
different results would come only as a surprise.
Running Game Thoughts: Tampa Bay's best offensive lineman, guard
Carl Nicks, has yet to play this season (foot), and Doug Martin
has still managed to gain the second most rushing yards of any
running back in the league, with 104 yards per game. His average
isn’t great (3.9 yards per carry) and he’s scored
only one touchdown, but the Buccaneers are committed to running
the ball and giving him ample opportunities to be the centerpiece
of the offense. The return of Nicks, whenever that may be, will
only improve his production, but in the meantime Martin will continue
to find running lanes behind whoever is there blocking for him.
Even without the Pro Bowl guard, Tampa Bay was able to find decent
success against a stout Jets front seven in the opening game,
and last week they took advantage of the weaknesses in the New
Orleans defense to allow Martin to rush for over 140 yards on
29 touches.
New England ranks as one of the league’s worst rushing
defenses, allowing over 130 yards per game; in two games they’ve
allowed four rushers to gain more than 40 yards a piece on the
ground, two in each game. The Patriots defense is designed to
be best when playing with a lead, when teams are forced to throw
more and give up on the running game. Against a balanced attack,
the pass rushers can’t key on the quarterback and have the
tendency to get beat by moderate offensive lines as they run block
and open up generous lanes for the ball carrier. On Sunday I expect
to see Tampa Bay once again lean heavily on the running game and
for Martin to tear up the defense with relative ease. If his team
is able to string together several drives, he could be looking
at a career day, and even if they continue to be stagnant offensively,
he should still be able to turn in a very reasonable triple-digit
yardage performance.
Projections:
Josh Freeman: 150 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Doug Martin: 130 rushing / 30 rec yds
Vincent Jackson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Through two games, the Patriots offense
has struggled mightily without its full complement of receiving
options. Most notably, tight end Rob Gronkowski has yet to play,
and wide receiver Danny Amendola re-aggravated his groin in the
middle of the first game and was then forced to miss Week two.
Also, running back Shane Vereen broke his wrist in the first game
and is out until Week 11. Their absences leave behind a pair of
rookie receivers and Julian Edelman as the only true pass catchers
in New England, though to be fair, only Edelman is doing any appreciable
pass catching. Through two games, the rookies have combined for
nine receptions on 31 targets (29%) for 145 yards and a touchdown,
and if you exclude a woefully blown coverage against the Jets
(39-yd TD pass) the numbers are even worse. Without experienced
receivers around him, Tom Brady can only do so much, but as the
health of Gronkowski (doubtful for Week 3) and Amendola (questionable)
improve, so too should the Patriots offense. Lost in the drama
surrounding his inexperienced receiving corps is the observation
that Brady hasn’t been as deadly accurate as he has is traditionally
known to be. Whether or not that improves could be the difference
between a Super Bowl run and an early exit from the playoffs.
Compared to last season, having an average pass defense would
be a vast improvement for Tampa Bay, and through the first two
weeks of the 2013 season, they’ve managed to be just that,
average. In yards allowed, yards per attempt, completion percentage,
touchdowns allowed, and interceptions forced they’re hovering
right around the middle of the pack thanks in large part to offseason
acquisitions and rookies who have contributed immediately. Normally
an average defense wouldn’t stand a chance against Brady
and the New England passing attack, but so far the Patriots have
been anything but their normal selves, so being average this Sunday
may be just enough to give New England a run for their money.
The Buccaneers are coming off of a game in New Orleans where they
gave up a late drive to Drew Brees. And despite knowing that he
was going to pass, they were unable to do anything to prevent
their own defeat. If this week comes down to the Patriots' last
possession, regardless of how the rest of the game has gone, optimism
should be kept in check concerning the Buccaneers' ability to
stop Brady from engineering a victory-clinching drive for New
England.
Running Game Thoughts: At this point in the season it’s
hard to feel confident in the identity of the New England rushing
attack. Opening weekend saw starter Stevan Ridley benched because
of fumbles and Shane Vereen go off for 101 yards on the ground
plus another 58 through the air against a weak Buffalo defense.
But Vereen broke his wrist, so Week 2 against the Jets put Ridley
back in the driver’s seat, but he managed only 40 yards
on 16 carries against a stout defense in sloppy weather. Like
the rest of the offense, the running game suffers from the absence
of the star receivers because continuity is broken and defenses
are better able to stay balanced against both phases of the attack.
Despite having Brady under center, the past several years have
seen the Patriots become an effective rushing team, and there
is reason to believe they will once again be that when Gronkowski
and Amendola can both play a full game together.
Of all the teams to face while having issues with the running
game, Tampa Bay may be one of the worst. Last season they were
the league’s best rushing defense, and through two games
of this season they don’t appear to have suffered any significant
drop off. By the numbers, the Buccaneers defense and the Patriots
offense are in the middle third of the league and therefore are
expected to matchup fairly well, but unfortunately for New England,
roughly 75 percent of their rushing production came in the season
opener, and the leading rusher from that game (Vereen) is on Injured
Reserve for the next two months. Ridley has technically been the
starter in both games, but he has struggled with fumbles and ineffectiveness,
though thankfully not at the same time. The Patriots will undoubtedly
still run the ball and try to keep the Buccaneers defense balanced,
but it is unlikely that they see particularly great gains on the
ground.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 250 pass yds, 2 TDs
Stevan Ridley: 50 rush yds / 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Julian Edelman: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Patriots 23, Buccaneers
10 ^ Top
Lions at Redskins
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: In a Week
2 not lacking for storylines, the Detroit–Arizona duel in
the desert lived up to its billing and the Lions aerial attack
was on display early and often. Ultimately, Calvin Johnson would
get the best of the Cardinals secondary even though he couldn’t
lead his team to victory. The star receiver finished with his
sixth career game of more than 100 yards receiving and two touchdowns,
making six receptions on eight targets, including a fantastic
72-yard catch and run in which Matthew Stafford perfectly threaded
the needle to get the ball into Johnson's hands. In all, Stafford
has thrown for 630 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception
through two weeks while only taking one sack and completing nearly
66 percent of his attempts. In training camp there were concerns
about the quality of the offensive line, but clearly the unit
is performing well enough to keep their quarterback upright and
allow him to make plays. So far, the front-runner for the second
wide receiver spot is far and away Nate Burleson, who has caught
13 of his 14 targets for a total of 123 yards. His emergence on
the field and his leadership in the locker room are certainly
a huge boost to Detroit.
If there is one thing Washington can’t do, it's defend
against the pass. In consecutive weeks they’ve been burned
by Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers for a total of 683 passing yards
and six passing touchdowns while not recording an interception.
In two games they’ve allowed three receivers to surpass
100 yards and allowed six different players to each record at
least one gain of over 25 yards. Stafford and company should have
a field day against the Redskins, and if the running back becomes
actively involved in the passing game, Detroit could legitimately
have three players go for 100 yards through the air. Washington
has done well getting to the quarterback, coming up with seven
sacks already this season, but despite the ability to create pressure,
they’ve been little able to do much else.
Running Game Thoughts: The signing of running back Reggie Bush
has been a great addition to the Lions. He gives them a great
one-two punch when paired with Joique Bell, and there is the constant
threat of Bush catching passes out of the backfield. Bush picked
up a knee injury that limited him in Week 2, but Bell filled in
nicely, so regardless of Bush's status against Washington, the
Lions should be just fine. Despite the improvements in running
the ball, Detroit mostly sees success through quantity, not quality,
of their runs. As a team they rank 22nd in yards gained but 27th
in yards per attempt. However, the primary utility of the running
game is to give Stafford’s arm a rest and to prevent the
defense from abandoning the run entirely. Because of the attention
paid to their top wide receiver, most defenses aren’t stacking
the box against Detroit, and with seven (or fewer) players focused
on stopping the run, that will always give Bush or Bell the chance
to take one the distance if they make it through the defensive
line with a full head of steam.
Washington is only slightly better defending against the run
than they are against the pass, but they’ve still surrendered
over 400 yards through the first two games, including to the Packers'
first 100-yard rusher in nearly three full seasons. They’re
giving up an absurd 5.5 yards per rush, better than only one team
in the league and considerably more than a full yard over the
league average. In short, the Redskins have a few playmakers,
but on the whole, they can be exploited through either phase of
the offense. They frequently play from behind because of the inefficient
offense and often find themselves out of position because they’re
trying to manufacture a play rather than react to what they see
in front of them. Whoever carries the ball for Detroit should
expect to have a good game despite not getting many touches.
Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 410 pass yds, 4 TDs
Reggie Bush: 40 rush yds / 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Joique Bell: 70 rush yds / 30 rec yds
Calvin Johnson: 130 rec yds, 1 TD
Nate Burleson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Looking only at statistics, it doesn’t
appear that Robert Griffin III is particularly off his game, but
after watching him play and noticing that the majority of his
success comes late in the game after the outcome has already been
decided, the opinion on his play begins to change. In two consecutive
games, he’s gotten off to a particularly slow start, missing
passes he didn’t last year, showing poor footwork as he
prepares to throw, and generally lacking the quiet confidence
that came from leading his team into the playoffs during his rookie
season. Griffin doesn’t yet trust his surgically-repaired
knee, and even though he physically has been cleared to play,
there are still a number of mental obstacles he must overcome
before returning to his full playing potential. He’s still
managed to throw for over 320 yards in each game this season while
also completing better than 61 percent of this throws. His five
touchdown passes are tied for fifth best in the league, but his
three interceptions has him tied for fourth worst. Expect more
of the same going forward: a rollercoaster ride of success and
shortcomings with inconsistency all along the way.
Sunday will go a long way in determining the outlook for Washington
for the remainder of the year. The Lions have feasted on mistakes
from opposing quarterbacks, forcing four interceptions while conceding
only two touchdowns and giving up approximately 240 yards per
game through the air. The biggest driver of their success is their
defensive line, which is usually good enough to create pressure
without sending extra rushers, therefore freeing up other defenders
to drop into coverage or roll over the top of the biggest receiving
threat. The best way to defeat the pass rush is to execute quick
throws, but for the Redskins to be able to do that, their quarterback
will have to trust his knee and fix his footwork.
Running Game Thoughts: When Griffin is healthy he is the ultimate
dual treat quarterback, able to beat you from the pocket, scramble
to keep plays alive, and burn you down the field when he decides
to take off running. His presence usually commands the attention
of one defender, if not two, and that allows his teammates to
better take advantage of their matchups. The offensive line in
Washington was credited with much of their success on the ground
from last season when they opened up gaping holes for Alfred Morris
on his way to a breakout rookie campaign. Against Green Bay, the
line paved the way for Morris to gain 107 yards on only 13 carries,
including a gain of over thirty yards. As Griffin better establishes
himself as the run threat he was in 2012, Morris will continue
to take advantage of his opportunities.
Excluding one rush from Adrian Peterson (a 78-yard touchdown)
on his first touch of the season, the Lions have done well defending
against the run. Against run-heavy Minnesota, they were able to
limit the league’s best running back to one yard per carry
after giving up that early touchdown. Week 2 against Arizona was
less stellar but still good, and if Washington is able to reproduce
some of what the Cardinals did previously, they’ll be in
a position to run the ball with authority and disrupt the defensive
plan. The Redskins offensive line matches up better than most
will against the Detroit front four, so that leaves only the uninspiring
linebackers between Morris and the open field. If Washington is
able to control the line of scrimmage, that will not only open
up massive gains on the ground but will also buy Griffin time
in the pocket, thus allowing him to better execute his footwork
and deliver strikes through the Lions secondary.
Projections:
Robert Griffin III: 310 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Alfred Morris: 70 rush yds, 1 TD / 10 rec yds
Pierre Garcon: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Leonard Hankerson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Lions 31, Redskins
21 ^ Top
Falcons at Dolphins
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: It’s
a good thing that wide receiver Julio Jones is insanely talented,
because his presence alone is enough to unbalance a defense and
create coverage issues. For Atlanta he was the only consistently
open target in a game that saw wide receiver Roddy White continue
to be limited (ankle), running back Steven Jackson go down (thigh),
and tight end Tony Gonzalez be held to just 33 yards on four completions
from eight targets. Jones tied a career high in receiving yards
(184) and added a touchdown, accounting for big plays late in
the game as the Falcons tried to run down the clock. Atlanta is
currently sixth in passing yards per game, less than one yard
behind New Orleans, and despite the acquisition of Jackson, they
are still primarily a passing team. The largest area of concern
is the offensive line, which in addition to giving up five sacks
are also allowing far too much pressure to reach Matt Ryan, as
he is frequently taking hits and being hurried in his throws.
When protection holds up, the Falcons are one of the most dangerous
offenses in the NFL, but based on two games so far this season,
it is hard to feel confident in their ability to keep Ryan upright.
In their most recent contest, Miami was able to limit the usually
prolific Andrew Luck to 58 percent passing, but they were particularly
disruptive on his longer attempts, where he was able to complete
only seven of 20 throws longer than ten yards down field. While
it is hard to see them limiting the Falcons in the same way, it
does suggest that the vertical passing game may need to take a
backseat to shorter throws and crossing routes. Miami is holding
opponents to a little more than 300 yards passing per game, but
Atlanta ought to be able to surpass that based on the weapons
they have at their disposal and compared to the competition the
Dolphins have faced recently. The matchup to watch will be the
front seven of Miami against the offensive line of Atlanta plus
Gonzalez. The veteran tight end may be the great equalizer, as
he can block effectively as well as being one of the best receivers
from that position. On paper the defensive line and linebackers
ought to have the advantage here.
Running Game Thoughts: Veteran running back Steven Jackson has
been ruled out for the game on Sunday, meaning Jason Snelling
is the likely replacement, though Jacquizz Rodgers will certainly
see touches as well. If previous games are any indication, there’s
reason to suggest that abandoning the run altogether might be
a good idea, as even with Jackson they ranked in the bottom quarter
of the league in terms of yards gained. Outside of one 50-yard
rush (Jackson) against the mediocre Saints defense, there has
been little production and a per-carry average of only 2.5 yards.
Just as the O-line struggles in pass protection, so too do they
have problems creating running lanes. Previously, they’ve
had problems with rushing in the red zone, which nearly directly
led to the acquisition of Jackson, but without improvement across
the offensive line, not even an All-Pro running back can make
up for those deficiencies. With Jackson out for Week 3, the rushing
outlook is bleak.
Miami has gotten out to an early lead in each of their first
two games and are tied for fewest rushing attempts against in
the NFL. In the back-and-forth game against Indianapolis in Week
2, they saw exactly twice as many rush attempts than they had
the previous week (26 vs. 13) and gave up 133 yards on the ground.
A large chunk of those came from quarterback scrambles, but even
excluding those, they surrendered an average of 4.3 yards per
attempt. The Dolphins defensive front is built to rush the passer
and drop into coverage, but the absence of Jackson will make it
hard for Atlanta to take advantage of that potential opportunity.
Other than out of necessity, I wouldn’t expect to see many
runs on Sunday.
Projections:
Matt Ryan: 330 pass yds, 2 TDs
Jason Snelling: 40 rush yds / 20 rec yds
Julio Jones: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Tony Gonzalez: 130 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: At 2-0 the Dolphins have to feel good about
how their season has started, and since the running game isn’t
exactly something to brag about, that means offensively their
strength must be through the air. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is
responsible for two touchdowns and two turnovers but has led his
team with two performances of more than 270 yards and a completion
rate of greater than 63 percent in each contest. Four different
receivers have been targeted more than seven times in one game,
and three of those four have gained over 100 yards in a game.
Miami has given up nine sacks, however, tied for third worst in
the league. Against two less than stellar defenses, the offensive
line was unable to hold its own and is quickly becoming a liability.
Tannehill is constantly under pressure even when he isn’t
being sacked, and if that trend continues, they’ll be in
a world of hurt against an elite pass rush.
Luckily this will be the third week in a row in which Miami doesn’t
face a vaunted front seven, meaning that once again the offensive
line will likely be beaten but not entirely broken. Atlanta has
an average pass rush (5 sacks) but is toward the bottom of the
league rankings in passing yards allowed. Cleveland and Indianapolis,
Miami's last two opponents, both record more sacks and yield fewer
yards, so comparatively this should be the least challenging defense
that the Dolphins have faced. The strength of the Falcons defense
actually lies in the fact that their offense is so potent, usually
forcing opposing teams to lean on the passing game earlier than
planned, which allows Atlanta to defend accordingly. If Miami
is able to get an early lead like that have previously, they ought
to see even more success offensively, as they can maintain balance
and take what the defense gives.
Running Game Thoughts: Not surprisingly, the problem with the
ground game in Miami starts with the offensive line; the unit
that is having troubles in pass protection and isn’t particularly
great at run blocking either. Lamar Miller, their breakout back
from last season, currently holds a tenuous grasp on the starting
role after a fierce training camp battle and mixed results so
far this season. In their first game, the entire rushing attack
was neutralized, and as a team the Dolphins recorded more rushes
(23) than they did yards (20). The second game was much better,
and Miller handled more than half of the backfield carries for
69 total yards on 14 touches, nearly five yards per attempt. It
appears that the O-line's performance will go further to dictate
the success of the running game than will the ball carrier.
Atlanta ranks in the top third of NFL teams against the rush,
so any ineffectiveness from the offensive line will likely be
magnified and could ultimately lead to a complete shutdown like
it did for Miami in Week 1 against the Browns. The Falcons have
yet to allow more than 80 yards on the ground to a team, and with
the exception of one quarterback scramble, they’ve not had
a rush against them go for more than 11 yards. If they’re
going to be beaten by a rushing attack, it will be a slow and
steady pounding and not from gashing runs and big plays. The first
two weeks don’t suggest that Miami is set up to deliver
a run game that will slowly wear down the opponent, so unless
something changes dramatically, expectations for Sunday should
be tempered appropriately.
Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 250 pass yds, 1 TD
Lamar Miller: 60 rush yds, 1 TD / 30 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Falcons 20, Dolphins
14 ^ Top
Bills at Jets
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Between Week
1 and Week 2, quarterback E.J. Manuel nearly doubled his passing
output from 150 yards in the opener to just shy of 300 the following
week. While that sort of exponential improvement will not continue,
it appears as though he’s growing more comfortable with
the offense and is starting to emerge as a leader for the team.
In an admittedly small sample size, he has completed 68 percent
of his passes, connected with nine different receivers, and led
a game-winning drive within the final two minutes of play. The
offensive line has protected extremely well, allowing only one
sack through the first two games against teams who were supposed
to overpower them at the line of scrimmage. Steve Johnson is the
clear No. 1 wide receiver in Buffalo and has already posted a
100-yard game and scored two touchdowns this season. Manuel’s
ability to spread the ball around to a variety of receivers makes
it difficult for defenses to key in on one guy, despite knowing
that Johnson is far and away the biggest receiving threat.
In their most recent outing, the Jets were able to hold the Patriots
to 185 passing yards, though the New England receivers are partially
responsible for that low total, as they dropped several easy catches
and failed to come down with several more passes that were contested.
The most telling aspect of the Jets defense came late in the game
as the Patriots were driving in need of a score. On third down
they were unable to cover a receiver who had already seen fifteen
or more targets in the game, and they were easily beat for a first
down; that drive would ultimately seal the game. Week 1 and Week
2 both saw statistically strong performances defensively, holding
opposing quarterbacks to roughly 50 percent passing and 200 yards
while recording one total interception and surrendering only two
touchdowns. Coach Rex Ryan typically puts the defense in positions
where they can succeed, but it is still up to the players to perform
and make the necessary plays; in most instances they execute well,
but every so often they leave open a window of opportunity.
Running Game Thoughts: A strong rushing attack is a quarterback’s
best friend, and that is even truer for a rookie quarterback.
Buffalo has posted back-to-back games of at least 135 yards rushing
and they average more than four yards per carry. The Bills have
gotten production from both of running backs C.J. Spiller and
Fred Jackson, and Manuel contributes with scrambles and improvised
runs. Spiller is the more dynamic runner, but opposing defenses
know this and tend to stack the box against him. Whether he or
Jackson is the team’s leading rusher in a given week often
comes down to defensive alignments rather than productivity. Coaches
have expressed interest in repeatedly giving carries to Spiller,
but as the game unfolds, sometimes plans change for matchup purposes.
Whether one or both backs are actively involved, the result is
generally the same and extremely positive. The offensive line
has played well and continues to make life easier on the ball
carrier, regardless of the caliber of competition they face.
Running the ball against New York will be extremely difficult
if they continue to play as they have through the first two weeks.
They have surrendered less than 120 total yards on the ground
this season, averaging less than 60 per game. Opponents average
a meager 2.4 yards per rush and have scored only one touchdown
on the ground against them. The strength of the Jets defense is
the front seven, with the defensive line being the strongest unit
of all. Trying to run against them is akin to trying to run through
a brick wall; eventually it will be done, but at a price that
likely makes it an unfruitful venture. This will be by far the
Bills' toughest task of the season, but to their credit, they
have a better offensive line than the Jets have faced this year.
While not overly likely, Buffalo does stand a chance of finding
success from the run.
Projections:
EJ Manuel: 200 pass yds, 1 INT
C.J. Spiller: 50 rush yds, 1 TD / 20 rec yds
Fred Jackson: 20 rush yds / 30 rec yds
Steve Johnson: 70 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: The problem with rookie quarterbacks is
that they often play like rookie quarterbacks, and Geno Smith
did nothing against New England to suggest that his Week 1 victory
wasn’t a fluke. If anything, he showed that if the defense
isn’t making mistakes, he’s not yet at the level where
he can manufacture production with his arm. His totals through
two weeks are 470 yards on 39 of 73 passing (53%) with one touchdown
and four interceptions. Unfortunately, the bulk of that positive
production came at home against an improving Tampa Bay secondary.
The most telling statistic, however, may be the nine sacks he’s
taken, almost entirely because of holding on to the ball far too
long and not because his offensive line has failed in protection.
All four of his interceptions have come off of badly thrown balls;
once he overthrew his running back coming out of the backfield
and hit a linebacker in stride, and three times he dramatically
underthrew vertical routes and the defending defensive back easily
undercut the receiver. Smith's body of work from the preseason
and through two regular season games suggests he isn’t yet
comfortable with NFL speed or the Jets playbook.
Teams with concerns on the offensive line should be scared to
throw against the Bills pass rushers; as a defense they have eight
sacks, which is only one behind the league best. They’ve
also recorded two interceptions but have conceded four touchdowns
through the air in addition to more than 225 yards passing each
game. Buffalo is dealing with a weak secondary to begin with,
and injuries are making things worse, which in turn puts more
emphasis on the front seven and tends to lead to more quarterback
pressures. If opposing quarterbacks can get the ball out of their
hands, there’s a decent chance it’ll end up as a positive
play, but releasing the pass before being taken down by a blitzing
linebacker has proven to be a difficult thing. Smith will be forced
to make a number of throws sooner than he would like, and if he’s
not careful with them, he’ll end up throwing interceptions
because of those errant passes.
Running Game Thoughts: In a small sample size, the Jets are beginning
to improve on the ground, having their running backs total 100
yards on 25 carries in the second game compared to only 44 yards
on 24 carries in the first. Production and touches between Bilal
Powell and Chris Ivory are almost identical, though Powell does
have the lone touchdown. Interestingly, in the fourth quarter
of the second game, where the Jets were desperately trying to
mount a comeback, Ivory was on the field for only one snap. Powell
has proven his effectiveness in the passing game both as a receiver
and as a blocking back, and that may account for the discrepancy
in late-game playing time. Against New England the Jets were able
to win the battle for time of possession primarily through effectively
running the ball as part of a balanced plan of attack. Look for
this to continue as the season progresses as a way to protect
the rookie quarterback as well as keep their defense appropriately
rested.
The best way to attack Buffalo is on the ground; they allow an
average of 141 rushing yards each game and are surrendering 4.2
yards per carry. For all of that yardage, though, they’ve
yet to give up a rushing touchdown, and the Jets certainly have
their eyes on changing that. The Bills success in rushing the
passer comes at the expense of stout run defense and defensive
backs who are usually more preoccupied with protecting against
the pass than helping in run support. All together that leads
to opportunities for running backs to carve out big gains on the
ground, and with the added dimension that Smith brings with his
legs, those running lanes ought to be larger and more frequent
than Buffalo has previously allowed.
Projections:
Geno Smith: 230 pass yds, 1 INT / 40 rush yds
Bilal Powell: 60 rush yds, 1 TD / 20 rec yds
Chris Ivory: 50 rush yds, 1 TD / 40 rec yds
Stephen Hill: 80 rec yds
Prediction: Jets 17, Bills 10 ^
Top
Packers @ Bengals
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Other than
getting sacked four times last week, the Packers passing unit
put on a clinic against the Redskins, piling up 480 yards through
the air with four touchdowns and no interceptions. This week’s
opponent, the Bengals, will surely not be as generous, yet a unit
like this can be fantasy relevant even in tough matchups. Through
two weeks, the Packers rank among the top three teams in passing
touchdowns, completion percentage, yards, and yards per attempt.
It is business as usual for Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, Jordy
Nelson, and Jermichael Finley, who have each had very nice back-to-back
games to start the season. Last week marked the return of receiver
James Jones, who led the team in catches and yards just one week
after going catch-less. Against a weak defense like the Redskins,
four receivers and one quarterback all played like top-level options;
however, that will change a bit this week. The Bengals are one
of the better overall defenses in the NFL and are currently among
the 12 toughest defenses for opposing fantasy QBs and WRs to score
against. The good news for Packers player owners is that Green
Bay is one of the most elite offenses in the NFL and, thus, even
bad matchups can produce quality fantasy numbers. While the ceiling
for the Packers passing attack is not as high as a normal or easy
matchup, the floor certainly is not as low as some teams would
be versus the Bengals. This week Rodgers is not a lock for 300-plus
passing yards but should still get 250 and a couple of touchdowns
because of the pure volume of passes he will throw, especially
with running back Eddie Lacy most likely out with a concussion.
The receiving pecking order is still a bit of a work in progress,
but Cobb and Nelson are the two safest bets for being at least
very high-end WR2 options this week. Finley has a history of being
up-and-down, but coming off a great training camp and solid back-to-back
games, there are not more than four or five other TEs I’d
want right now, even in a tougher matchup like this one. While
Jones is coming off an 11-catch performance, I still have him
as the fourth option in the passing game, meaning he could be
the one to suffer if a big-yardage day doesn't happen. I’d
still start Jones this week but more as a low-end WR3 than the
solid WR2 he can be in good matchups.
Running Game Thoughts: When Lacy
left the game last week with a concussion, there was no doubt
the Packers had faith in James Starks, as they did not give any
other running back a carry and allowed Starks to tote the rock
20 times. With those 20 carries Starks put up 132 yards and a
touchdown and will most certainly be a hot add this week from
many waiver wires. While almost any running back with a full workload
to himself is worthy of consideration in fantasy, there is reason
to pause here. First, as of this writing, Lacy has not been officially
ruled out and probably will not be until game day, if he is at
all. If Lacy plays, he should get most of the workload, but any
Packers running back would be extra risky because of the uncertainty
in how much work each back will get. Secondly, let’s say
Lacy is out and Starks is the man: the Packers still will throw
it a ton, and they most likely gave Starks that much work last
week only because they were blowing out the Skins and wanted to
milk the clock. This brings me to my third point: the Bengals
are not the Skins. This game will almost certainly not get out
of hand either way, and not only will the Packers probably run
less, it will be with less efficiency. The Bengals currently are
the fifth toughest defense for opposing fantasy RBs to score against,
and with an elite defensive line, that is not likely to change
much this week, especially with Starks being just an average talent.
In this matchup Starks is nothing more than a very low-end RB3
if he gets all the work, which I expect he will. If Lacy ends
up playing, I personally would avoid the whole situation in a
very tough matchup with an uncertain workload distribution.
Projections:
Aaron
Rodgers: 270 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Randall
Cobb: 70 rec yds
Jordy
Nelson: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermichael
Finley: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
James
Jones: 55 rec yds
James
Starks: 40 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Most of last
week’s game versus Pittsburgh was what we have come to expect
from the Bengals passing game. Dalton was fairly efficient and
his end stats were ok but nothing amazing or exciting (280, 1/0);
the two tight ends (Gresham and Eifert) split reps and had ok
games (66 yds each) but hurt each other’s values; and the
complimentary wide receivers (Sanu and Jones) caught a few balls
but not enough to make them startable fantasy players. What was
unusual was that stud wide receiver A.J. Green was held in check
(6/41/0) by Steelers cornerback Ike Taylor, who has given Green
problems in the past as well. While I do not expect much to change
with Dalton, the two tight ends, and the complimentary wide receivers,
I do fully expect Green to get back to where we all expect him
to be, as the Packers do not have a cornerback as talented as
Taylor on their roster. On the contrary, the Packers are not a
very good pass defense and are actually among the worst in the
NFL in passing yards allowed, passing yards per attempt allowed,
and passing touchdowns allowed. In addition, the Packers are currently
the fifth, third, and second easiest defenses for opposing fantasy
quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends, respectively, to
score against. While the Bengals passing unit, outside of A.J.
Green, does not possess anywhere near elite talent, fantasy points
should be abundant against one of the league’s weaker defenses,
especially with the Bengals playing at home. While there should
be better options out there in most 10- and 12-team leagues, this
may actually be a nice week to start Dalton as a higher-end QB2
with a healthy squad around him, an easier matchup, and a game
that may require the Bengals to throw a fair amount. Green is
a must-start and probably among the best two or three options
this week for WRs in a killer matchup. While the Packers do allow
TEs a hefty scoring boost, it is tough to strongly recommend either
TE right now, as they split the workload so much. However, after
the top 7-8 sure things at fantasy TE, it is so wide open that
either Bengals TE is a decent start, although I slightly prefer
Eifert. No other Bengals receiver is worth a look, even in this
juicy matchup.
Running Game Thoughts: I believe
we are going to start seeing a trend that will increase more and
more gradually as the season goes on—that is, Giovani Bernard
slowly but surely becoming the main man in the Bengals backfield,
with BenJarvus Green-Ellis slowly slipping into the background.
Not only did Bernard get double the carries last week that he
did the first week, but he also scored the only two Cincinnati
touchdowns (1 receiving) and he out-averaged BJGE 4.8 to 3.4 on
the ground. It is clear when watching the two backs that Bernard
has way more burst and surprisingly not that less power compared
to the Law Firm, and it is only a matter of time before he is
out-touching Green-Ellis. Of course, it will almost certainly
be a gradual not an immediate thing (especially because BJGE does
not fumble much), and in that way, it is tough counting on either
back right now as anything more than a flex player. The matchup
with the Packers is good—not elite, but good—as the
Pack rank in right about the middle of most defenses, both NFL-wise
and fantasy-wise. While a superior, talented back (like AP, McCoy,
Spiller, etc.) might have a field day with this defense, the Bengals
run game is pretty much ordinary right now, so both Bengals backs
are just moderately recommended (as RB3/flex), until one or the
other really steps up, steps down, or gets hurt. I certainly prefer
Bernard for the long haul, but with the workload being divided
fairly right now, he is more of a hold-and-see rather than a must-start.
Projections:
Andy
Dalton: 290 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
A.J.
Green: 125 rec yds, 1 TD
Tyler
Eifert: 70 rec yds
Jermaine
Gresham: 55 rec yds
Mohamed
Sanu: 45 rec yds
Giovani
Bernard: 40 rush yds, 25 rec yds
BenJarvus
Green-Ellis: 55 rush yds
Prediction: Packers 27, Bengals
24 ^ Top
Browns @ Vikings
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: What a crazy
week for these Browns, huh? There are three big changes this week
that will affect them and thus your fantasy decision-making. First,
quarterback Brandon Weeden is hurt and starting in his place is
Brian Hoyer, who has less of an arm than Weeden and has a very
limited resume but is a favorite of the Browns general manager.
Second, wide receiver Josh Gordon is back from suspension and
will immediately start and become the Browns' best wide receiver
by a wide margin. Finally, Trent Richardson was surprisingly traded
to the Colts on Wednesday, so the Browns will roll with Bobby
Rainey, Chris Ogbonnaya, and possibly Willis McGahee if he's signed
in time. So with a new quarterback, a new running back, and a
possibly rusty No. 1 receiver making his debut, the team is basically
a mess this week from an offensive standpoint. You can throw out
what the Browns have done so far this year because this offense
will look totally different this week and it is hard to know what
to expect. The Vikings pass defense has been generous through
two weeks, both from a yardage perspective (641, 7th-most in NFL),
and a fantasy perspective (8th-most generous to opposing QBs).
So from a pure matchup perspective, this should be somewhat juicy
for the Browns. The problem is that Hoyer is unproven and probably
has very little chemistry with Gordon, Gordon himself is probably
a bit rusty, and there is a big downgrade in running back talent
this week. With all this being said, I expect the Vikings to blitz
the heck out of the Browns, especially at home. And with the talented
group they have as pass rushers, I expect a ton of pressure on
Hoyer and probably a lot of three-and-outs and possibly a lot
of turnovers. I like Gordon as a solid WR3 most weeks going forward,
but I would not want to start him this week in his return unless
you are a real gambler or have no other options. Hoyer is a must-sit,
as we have no real idea what he will do but is probably a slight
downgrade from Weeden, who was already below average at best.
The only guy I’d consider starting this week would be tight
end Jordan Cameron, as inexperienced quarterbacks often rely on
their tight end as a safety valve, and with Cameron’s talent
I would not be surprised if he caught five or more balls and racked
up some garbage-time yardage. In my eyes, Cameron is a high-end
TE2 in this matchup. No other Brown is even remotely startable
this week, even in a plus matchup.
Running Game Thoughts: There was
a time when writing about the Browns' run game was exciting, full
of hope and promise. This time was exactly one week ago, but a
new era has started, and that time has passed. With Trent Richardson
gone, the run game has gone from a top 10 fantasy goldmine to
a bottom five fantasy dumpster. This week may be epically bad,
as Richardson was traded just five days before the game and the
group behind him has just days to get their act together and prepare
to start. Who will actually get the start and how the carries
will be divided is totally up in the air, as Willis McGahee (still
unsigned as of this writing) is expected to be signed—but
who knows if he is in game shape or not—and Bobby Rainey
and Chris Ogbonnaya are unproven and lacking as anything more
than average talent. The Vikings have actually been quite generous
to opposing fantasy RBs (most points allowed in the league), but
most of that has to do with the fact that they let up a ton of
yardage through the air to two of the NFL’s best receiving
backs (Reggie Bush and Matt Forte). The Browns obviously have
nobody close to those guys on their roster. On the ground the
Vikings are actually quite good, giving up the seventh least rushing
yards so far this year. In this game I expect the Browns to get
shut down on the ground because of the lack of backfield talent
and the Vikings' good rush defense. Therefore, no Browns running
back is worth starting in any format, even if you are desperate.
This unit will probably continue to be bad the rest of the season
unless McGahee has a career resurgence, which I will not bet on.
Projections:
Brian
Hoyer: 200 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Josh
Gordon: 50 rec yds
Jordan
Cameron: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Davone
Bess: 45 rec yds
Bobby
Rainey: 30 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Chris
Ogbonnaya: 30 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Christian
Ponder and the Vikings passing unit put on a pretty typical performance
versus the Bears last week (that is, below average), and there
is little reason to believe much will change this week versus
a very good Browns defense. Ponder continues to miss open receivers
and often fails to look more than 15 yards downfield, severely
limiting the offense's effectiveness and attractiveness from a
fantasy perspective. Wide receiver Greg Jennings did have a decent
game last week (5/84) and tight end Kyle Rudolph caught a touchdown,
but overall this unit is going to struggle mightily with consistency
and explosiveness unless Ponder takes a big step forward, which
is unlikely. On the other side of the ball, the Browns have been
very good, ranking in the top 12 in passing yards allowed, passing
yards per attempt allowed, and passing touchdowns allowed. First
round rookie linebacker Barkevious Mingo made his debut last week
and made an immediate impact, getting one sack and a quarterback
hurry. He will probably get the start this week. Besides having
a stud cover cornerback in Joe Haden, the Browns are solid up
front and should have little problem pressuring Ponder into quick
throws and bad decisions. If the Vikings were a more talented
unit, there would still be a good chance to make a fantasy impact,
even in this tough matchup, but the fact is that Ponder is holding
this team back and therefore no Vikings player can really be trusted
(outside of AP) to be anything more than a low-end flex player.
Ponder is way outside startable right now, Jennings is a decent
WR3 in PPR but should not be much of a consideration in standard
leagues this week, as he should garner most of Haden’s elite
coverage attention. Rudolph is always a threat to get a touchdown,
but the yardage is not there at all yet, and therefore he is a
stretch to be anything more than a low-end TE2 this week (the
Browns have given up fourth-lowest points to opposing fantasy
TEs). Rookie wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson is set to get
more playing time this week but is still probably a few weeks
away from making a real impact, so no other players in this unit
are anywhere near fantasy relevant at this time.
Running Game Thoughts: In a relatively
tough matchup last week, Adrian Peterson still managed to hit
the 100-yard mark, although it was the second week in a row where
his day was basically salvaged by one long run. The good news
with Peterson is that he is still getting almost every single
carry and the Vikings are more than happy to keep feeding him
the ball regardless of opponent or situation. The Browns' run
defense provides perhaps his toughest matchup so far this year,
as they rank fourth in the NFL in rush yards allowed and first
in rush yards allowed per attempt at a very impressive 2.0. This
has all the makings of a grind-it-out game, with lots of punts,
little scoring, and some ugly offense. In this way, Peterson should
at the very least get 25 touches, even if his average is kept
in check by a tough front seven. Despite the tough matchup, Peterson
is a must-start and should still approach 100 yards, and perhaps
sneak in a close-range touchdown. Huge numbers should not be expected
in this game, but as the focus of the offense, in a close, defense-oriented
game, Peterson will get enough work to be a low-end RB1.
Projections:
Christian
Ponder: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Adrian
Peterson: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Greg
Jennings: 45 rec yds
Kyle
Rudolph: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Cordarrelle
Patterson: 45 rec yds
Prediction: Vikings 20, Browns 16
^ Top
Texans @ Ravens
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Schaub
has thrown for six touchdowns and more than 600 yards through
two games and it looks like the Texans may have finally found
a good compliment to wide receiver Andre Johnson in rookie DeAndre
Hopkins, who has 12 catches, a touchdown, and almost 200 yards
through two games. The Texans still rely a lot on the run game,
so their upside is somewhat limited, but they are off to a hot
start and their passing unit is much more intriguing this year
from a fantasy perspective. Andre Johnson did sustain a concussion
last week but has passed all his tests to this point and is considered
likely to play. With Johnson, Hopkins, and reliable, safety-valve
tight end Owen Daniels, the Texans have a trio of receivers who
are all fantasy relevant, especially with the respect that their
run game gets, which opens things up downfield. After a horrendous
defensive performance the first week versus the Broncos, the Ravens
held up strong against the much less talented Browns, allowing
just 233 yards through the air and sacking quarterback Brandon
Weeden five times. This week they will face a Texans team with
much more talent, much more balance, and many more options to
throw to. While the Ravens have the personnel to apply a lot of
pressure to opposing quarterbacks, they do not have enough skill
to cover more than one or two guys on a play-by-play basis. This
week Schaub should be able to find an open man more times than
not, even if the Ravens pressure him to throw it faster than he’d
like. The guy I especially like this week for the Texans is Daniels,
who should be a quick check-down option if Schaub is forced to
throw it within 10 yards. I especially like Daniels because the
Ravens have been burned bad by tight ends both weeks, first by
Julius Thomas and last week by Jordan Cameron. So I like Daniels
as a solid TE1. Schaub is not an elite fantasy option most weeks
because of Houston's normally conservative game plan, but with
the emergence of Hopkins and fairly solid offensive line play,
I actually like Schaub this week as a high-end QB2 and a somewhat
sneaky play to get close to 300 yards. As for the receivers, the
Ravens do not have an elite cover guy, so Johnson should be deployed
as usual as a low-end WR1 (as long as he plays, which he should)
while Hopkins makes a solid WR3, with the obvious bump if Johnson
misses miss the game. This is a fun unit to watch right now and
their fantasy owners should be happy once again in this matchup.
Running Game Thoughts: The Texans
currently have the third most rush yards in the league and are
averaging a healthy 5.2 yards per carry. While the past two seasons
have seen Arian Foster carry about 90 percent of the rushing load,
Houston is mixing in Ben Tate more this year, and the split seems
to now be more 70 to 30 percent in favor of Foster, with Tate
actually gaining more yards on fewer carries through two games.
Foster did miss a lot of the preseason and may still be shaking
off some rust, or a changing of the guard may slowly be happening.
Either way, there is little reason to expect much of a change
in workload at this point for either back, as both are healthy
and productive. The Ravens offer a tough matchup for the Texans,
ranking eighth best in rushing yards allowed and being the eighth
stingiest to opposing fantasy backs thus far. With a solid offensive
line and two quality running backs, there is no way the Texans
will simply give up on the run; but they will likely pass a bit
more than usual to take advantage of a defense that is worse against
the pass. I still like both backs to get more than 10 touches,
with Foster probably approaching 20, meaning the volume of work
should be there for Foster to be a high-end RB2 and Tate a low-end
flex guy with some upside. While this is not an ideal matchup
by any stretch, the Texans will be in this game the whole way
through, so both Foster and Tate will be accumulating stats up
to the final whistle.
Projections:
Matt
Schaub: 300 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Arian
Foster: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Ben
Tate: 45 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Andre
Johnson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Owen
Daniels: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
DeAndre
Hopkins: 55 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: The Ravens
are an average offensive team right now, although they have faced
two tough defenses in their first two games, so we may not see
their true colors until they get a better matchup. Unfortunately
for them, this is not the week, as Houston is among the top teams
in passing yards allowed, sacks, completion percentage allowed,
and yards per pass attempt allowed. If it was not for giving up
six touchdowns through the air, the Texans may well be the best
passing defense in the league through two weeks although, granted,
their first two opponents were not exactly elite passing teams.
It is obvious to anyone watching their games that the Ravens,
and especially Joe Flacco, miss Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta.
Although rookie Marlon Brown has had a decent start to his career
(2 TDs), Torrey Smith remains the only legitimate option in the
Ravens passing unit right now, and defenses have little problem
covering guys like Brandon Stokley and Dallas Clark, who the Ravens
have been forced to rely on at this point. From a fantasy perspective,
Smith is the only guy to get excited about at this point in the
season, although Brown may emerge as a consistent threat over
the course of the year. Flacco is consistently average and there
are much better options out there as a starter unless you are
in a 14-plus team league. This week, all the passing unit players
get a downgrade in a tough matchup, with Smith being the best
bet once again to be starter-worthy as a solid WR3 option. Eventually
there will be better matchups and maybe Brown or another player
will step up to be relevant, but for now this is a mediocre unit
who will need a great matchup to really get truly excited about
fantasy-wise.
Running Game Thoughts: The Ravens
run game has gotten off to a bad start this year, averaging an
awful 2.8 yards per carry and they now must deal with Ray Rice’s
ailing hip, which will make him a game-time decision this week.
Of course, some of the Ravens' woes can be blamed on their opponents,
as Baltimore had to abandon the run in Week 1 while getting blown
out by the Broncos, and Week 2 had them face one of the league's
tougher defenses in the Browns. Still, it is troubling for a team
with a decent offensive line and two talented backs to be struggling
this much so early. The Texans will not be an easy opponent either,
having not given up a rushing touchdown and being very strong
up front, especially in the linebacking corps. While I expect
this game to be close, and the Ravens should be able to run all
four quarters, it will be a tough task for any Baltimore running
back to put up a great statistical game. If Rice plays, he is
a dicey RB2 option since it is a tough matchup—and who knows
how his hip will hold up. In that scenario you probably still
have to play Rice (and sit Pierce), but I would not count on a
whole lot from Ray. If Rice sits, which I think is a decent chance,
Pierce actually makes a fairly solid RB2 since he is healthy and
should get 18-plus total touches with no other real competition
in the Ravens backfield. For now, my projections will be based
on Rice starting, but if you own Rice and hopefully handcuffed
him, your best bet is to probably have him sit and start Pierce
with confidence as a solid RB2.
Projections:
Joe
Flacco: 235 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Ray
Rice: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Bernard
Pierce: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Torrey
Smith: 75 rec yds
Dallas
Clark: 30 rec yds
Marlon
Brown: 45 rec yds
Prediction: Texans 30, Ravens 24
^ Top
Bears @ Steelers
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: I watched
the Bears game last week in its entirety and came away with the
notion that this offense could be very very good once it stops
making silly mistakes and shooting itself in the foot. Including
running back Matt Forte, this unit has four very good options
to throw to, making it difficult to stop a weapon at every level
of the defense. Brandon Marshall is only slightly down in targets
from last year’s pace but is probably more efficient with
the targets he gets since he cannot be double teamed as much.
That makes him a consistent WR1 each week. Tight end Martellus
Bennett has three touchdowns in two games and just barely missed
a fourth last week in the back of the end zone. Wide receiver
Alshon Jeffery has not yet been great statistically, but he is
getting some targets, and looking at him play you can tell he
has the makings of a quality player given some time. While Jay
Cutler did not break the 300-yard mark in either game, he has
played two tough opponents, is getting better protection, and
is finally looking at receivers besides Marshall, which makes
him more difficult for defenses to prepare against. This week’s
matchup is another tough one, especially playing at Pittsburgh,
who have one of the better home field advantages and currently
rank among the top 10 teams in most defensive passing categories,
although they are not getting to the quarterback as much as in
years past yet. Cornerback Ike Taylor is one of the tougher cover
corners in the league and held A.J. Green to just 41 yards last
week, making the assignment a tough matchup for Marshall, who
will most likely get a lot of Taylor’s attention. While
Marshall will still get a ton of looks, I like Bennett a lot in
this game, as the Bengals' tight ends combined for 132 yards last
week. I do not see the Bears putting up a ton of points or stats
in this game, but they should get enough work to make Cutler a
decent QB2, Marshall a low-end WR1, and Bennett a solid TE1. Jeffery
is still a bit off the radar and not startable, but look for him
to make a bigger impact later this year.
Running Game Thoughts: While last
year there was always a fear in Forte owners of Michael Bush stealing
touches, that does not seem to be the case this season, as Bush
has just eight carries for 15 yards in two games and Forte is
back to being used as an all-around running back. While the Bears
seem to be more pass-heavy this year, that is actually good news
for Forte, as the back has 15 catches, leading all NFL running
backs and tying for sixth overall in receptions. Thanks to Forte’s
dual ability, he is once again a borderline RB1 every week and
should be a consistent option all year long. The Steelers, normally
among the best run-defenders in the NFL, have struggled a bit
in two games, giving up the seventh most yards on the ground and
being the seventh most fantasy friendly to opposing RBs. While
this is far from an ideal matchup, in a hostile environment against
a solid defense, Forte has so much value and gets so much work
both through the air and on the ground, that he has to be considered
a low-end RB1. With a lot of defensive attention going to Marshall,
look for a good number of check-downs to Forte, as another five
or more catches is almost guaranteed. As one of the most used
backs in the NFL through two weeks, Forte owners should continue
to enjoy the ride and ride their bell cow for at least another
week.
Projections:
Jay
Cutler: 255 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Matt
Forte: 75 rush yds, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon
Marshall: 70 rec yds
Martellus
Bennett: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Alshon
Jeffery: 35 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: While the
Steelers offense looks very messy to say the least, there is some
reason for hope for Pittsburg fans. First, tight end Heath Miller
practiced this week and has a decent shot at playing, even if
he is a bit rusty to start. Second, exciting rookie wide receiver
Markus Wheaton is supposedly going to get more action after two
weeks of limited play. If Miller and Wheaton both play and Ben
Roethlisberger can get a rhythm going, this passing attack actually
has some really nice weapons to throw to. Right now Antonio Brown
and Emmanuel Sanders are about all they have, and while they are
both quality players, they are not elite and need others around
them to take the pressure off so they can be productive. The Bears
defense has been stronger against the run than the pass, and with
no run game to speak of at this point, it would not surprise anyone
if Roethlisberger threw the ball 40 times, therefore accumulating
some decent stats. Bears cornerback Charles Tillman, normally
one of the league's better corners, is a bit banged up and has
been burned the first two weeks, although it is not totally clear
who he will cover in this game (probably Brown). While the Steelers
and Big Ben should have more options this week with Miller returning,
it is difficult to say who will get the most love from Ben, as
Sanders, Brown, and Jerricho Cotchery all have a similar number
of targets through two games. My guess is that Sanders, Brown,
and Miller will get the most looks this week, in that order, but
I doubt any of them will have a breakout or huge game statistically,
as the ball will be spread around a lot. To me, Ben is a startable
QB2 because of the probable return of Miller, the abandonment
of the run game, and perhaps a small spark from Wheaton. Sanders
and Brown are both useable as WR3s, and Miller (if he plays) should
step right in as a low-end TE2 because of Roethlisberger’s
rapport with him. While I like Wheaton a lot to eventually contribute,
he, and all other passing unit players, are off the fantasy radar
this week.
Running Game Thoughts: There is
very little to say about this unit right now because they are
doing very little on the field. The Steelers rank near or at the
bottom of basically all major rushing statistics, and until LeVeon
Bell makes his debut, this unit will continue to be boring, awful,
and an after-thought, both in terms of NFL production and fantasy
interest. Last week veteran Felix Jones got the start and racked
up just 37 yards, with the rest of the gang adding just seven
more. This week it sounds like Jones will again, start but unless
you are in a 32team league that requires three starting RBs, you
should not be going anywhere near this guy, or any Pittsburgh
running back until Bell gets back from injury. The Steelers do
not run enough at this point, the talent level is too low, and
the matchup with the Bears is a bad one, as they rank as one of
the 10 toughest defenses for opposing fantasy backs to go against.
Once the passing game gains a bit more respect, Bell gets back,
and they commit to the run more, there may be signs of life with
this unit, but for now, do yourself a favor and pull the plug
on this fantasy wasteland of a backfield.
Projections:
Ben
Roethlisberger: 280 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Antonio
Brown: 55 rec yds
Emmanuel
Sanders: 70 rec yds
Heath
Miller: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Felix
Jones: 25 rush yds
Prediction: Bears 27, Steelers 20
^ Top
Chargers at Titans
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: After trending
downward in recent seasons, San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers
has resurfaced in the season’s first two games to become
fantasy relevant once again. He is fourth among all QBs in fantasy
points with seven touchdowns and just one interception. However,
he is likely to be without leading receiver Malcolm Floyd (neck)
this week and it’s hard to imagine Eddie Royal (five TDs)
will continue at such a torrid pace. Fantasy owners should continue
to rely on Antonio Gates, who is third among tight ends in receiving
yards but has yet to find the end zone – something I think
changes this week against the Titans.
Tennessee is 11th in the league in pass defense but their fantasy
numbers tell a bit of a different story. Though they’ve
allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to QBs, they have given
up the 11th-most fantasy points to WRs and the 13th-most to TEs.
Running Game Thoughts: Ryan Mathews
continues to underwhelm both San Diego fans and his fantasy owners.
He’s 20th among RBs in fantasy points and has run for just
over 100 total yards, and is carrying the ball for an average
of 3.7 yards. He also has just three receptions this year, though
one of those did go for a score.
Mathews is not wowing anybody, but fantasy owners can plug him
in as a RB2 or flex this week against Tennessee. The Titans are
19th in the NFL against the run but their competition needs to
be kept in mind. In Week 1 they faced a woeful Steelers rushing
attack and allowed their running backs to gain just 28 yards while
last week the Texans’ duo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate dashed
for 172 yards.
Projections:
Philip
Rivers: 265 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Antonio
Gates: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Vincent
Brown: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Eddie
Royal: 40 rec yds
Keenan
Allen: 25 rec yds
Ryan
Mathews: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Danny
Woodhead: 20 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: There is
little to mention here about the Tennessee passing game, because
it’s mostly non-existent. The team is last in the league
in passing offense with Jake Locker ahead of only the Jacksonville
duo of Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne in fantasy points among QBs.
The Titans have just one wideout, Kendall Wright, among the top
65 WRs in fantasy points and he is dealing with a concussion and
may not be able to play this week.
If Wright does play, he could have a decent game because no team
in the league has allowed more passing yards this year than the
Chargers. They have given up the second-most fantasy points to
QBs, the third-most to TEs, and the eighth-most to WRs. If there
was ever a week to have a Titans pass-catcher on your fantasy
roster this would be it, but I can’t imagine that being
the case but in the deepest of leagues.
Running Game Thoughts: Chris Johnson
has been a workhorse this year, with his 50 rushing attempts being
the second-most in the league behind Tampa’s Doug Martin.
Unfortunately for Johnson’s fantasy owners, all those carries
have not translated into points. He is 29th among running backs
in fantasy points, is averaging just 3.3 yards per rush, has not
scored a touchdown and has only a single catch for a single yard.
Fantasy owners familiar with Johnson know he’s had slow
starts before though, so there’s no reason to give up hope
- he’ll turn it around. Facing the Chargers could help,
as they’re 22nd in the league in rush defense, are allowing
4.7 yards per carry and only two teams have given up more receiving
yards to RBs than they have.
Projections:
Jake
Locker: 180 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Kendall
Wright: 60 rec yds
Nate
Washington: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Kenny
Britt: 35 rec yds
Delanie
Walker: 15 rec yds
Chris
Johnson: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Jackie
Battle: 25 rush yds
Prediction: Chargers 24, Titans
20 ^ Top
Cardinals at
Saints - (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: After having
a pathetic passing attack last season with a mishmash of terrible
quarterbacks, the Cardinals made a move to acquire Carson Palmer
in the offseason and it’s seemingly paid off. Palmer is
just 18th in fantasy points among QBs, but he’s made Larry
Fitzgerald a top fantasy WR once again. Fitzgerald is 19th among
WRs in fantasy points and he, Andre Roberts and Michael Floyd
each have over 100 receiving yards this season.
They face a Saints team that is eighth in the NFL against the
pass this season but has seen wideouts have some success against
them. They allowed Julio Jones to gain 76 yards (with a TD) and
Harry Douglas to pick up 93 yards in Week 1 and last week gave
up 77 yards to Vincent Jackson, though they did hold him and Mike
Williams out of the end zone.
Running Game Thoughts: Rashard Mendenhall
is Arizona’s top back, and though he is nobody’s idea
of a RB1, he’s had more success than people thought he might
so far. Mendenhall is 16th among RBs in fantasy scoring, is carrying
the rock for 4.1 yards per tote and scored for the first time
last week. A toe injury has kept Mendenhall out of practice Wednesday
and Thursday so check his status before putting him in your lineup.
Against the Saints he should have similar success. New Orleans
is 27th in the NFL against the rush and is giving up 5.3 yards
per carry, which is the third-worst mark in the league. They have
yet to allow a touchdown on the ground this season, which is surprising
considering how poorly they’ve otherwise been against the
run, and figures to change this week.
Projections:
Carson
Palmer: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Larry
Fitzgerald: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael
Floyd: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre
Roberts: 45 rec yds
Jim
Dray: 15 rec yds
Rashard
Mendenhall: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Andre
Ellington: 20 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees
has been unusually average so far in two games this season, ranking
only 14th in fantasy points among quarterbacks. Though he’s
thrown for more than 320 yards in both of his contests, he has
just three touchdowns to go with three interceptions. The team’s
WRs have not been kind to fantasy owners, with no wideout having
even 10 catches so far, and only Marques Colston having scored.
Lance Moore has been the biggest disappointment, with just three
receptions though Darren Sproles is third among runners in receiving
yards and Jimmy Graham leads all tight ends in fantasy points,
and has a juicy match-up with the Cardinals.
Arizona has a true shutdown corner in Patrick Peterson, and as
such has given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to WRs, but
is just 21st in the league in pass defense. The reason for that
is they have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards in the NFL
to running backs, and the sixth-most fantasy points to TEs, including
141 yards and two touchdowns to the Rams’ Jared Cook in
Week 1.
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram
continues to show he is not a capable NFL runner but he nonetheless
leads the Saints in carries with 17. Yet he is rushing for a pathetic
1.7 yards per carry and Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles are just
a few carries behind him for the team lead. They should get more
carries in the future, though none will have an easy go of it
this week against Arizona.
The Cardinals have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, ranking
third in the league in that statistic while allowing a mere 2.6
yards per rush. They have yet to surrender a rushing score and
have given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points in the NFL to RBs,
so any fantasy owner thinking Ingram will have a breakout this
week can forget about it.
Projections:
Drew
Brees: 330 pass yds, 4 TD, 2 INT
Jimmy
Graham: 105 rec yds, 2 TD
Marques
Colston: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Lance
Moore: 45 rec yds
Kenny
Stills: 20 rec yds
Pierre
Thomas: 30 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Darren
Sproles: 25 rush yds, 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Mark
Ingram: 20 rush yds
Prediction: Saints 31, Cardinals
24 ^ Top
Giants at Panthers
- (Smith)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Though Eli Manning is fifth among QBs in
fantasy points, he leads the league in interceptions with seven,
which is three more than any other signal caller. That number
shouldn’t come as a huge surprise to fantasy owners who
have had Eli in previous years. Fortunately, he does have two
legit fantasy starters at wideout in Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks.
Cruz is second at the position in fantasy points and Nicks is
26th despite not yet having caught a touchdown.
That trio, along with fairly productive tight end Brandon Myers,
will face a Panthers pass defense that is ranked 22nd in the league,
though they’ve given up just a pair of passing scores on
the season. They’ve shut down opposing TEs, allowing the
third-fewest fantasy points in the league to that position, but
have had trouble with WRs, having allowed the ninth-most fantasy
points to them, which means both Cruz and Nicks should be starting
for their fantasy owners this week.
Running Game Thoughts: David Wilson
has been bad for the Giants and worse for his fantasy owners,
having run for a total of just 36 yards this year and has an equal
amount of first downs picked up as fumbles lost (two). The team
brought back Brandon Jacobs as a result of Wilson’s poor
play and injuries and though he scored a touchdown last week he
also picked up just four yards on seven carries. Carolina may
be allowing the 10th-most fantasy points in the league to running
backs but fantasy owners shouldn’t be playing Wilson or
Jacobs at this point no matter what the matchup is.
Projections:
Eli
Manning: 265 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Victor
Cruz: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Hakeem
Nicks: 85 rec yds, 2 TD
Rueben
Randle: 40 rec yds
Brandon
Myers: 25 rec yds
David
Wilson: 30 rush yds
Brandon
Jacobs: 20 rush yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton
is not passing for a lot of yards, with just 354 through two games
and three TDs. Steve Smith is currently 36th among WRs in fantasy
points, and the team has no other wideout among the top 45 fantasy
scorers. However, TE Greg Olsen is ranked seventh at his position
and should be considered a fantasy starter this week against the
Giants.
New York is 19th in the league against the pass, 14th in fantasy
points allowed to QBs, 19th in fantasy points allowed to WRs,
but just six teams have given up more points to TEs. They’ve
been burned for a touchdown by a tight end in each of their first
two games, making Olsen a solid option this week.
Running Game Thoughts: With Jonathan
Stewart still on the mend, the team has turned to DeAngelo Williams
to carry the load and he’s responded with 171 yards in two
games, though he has yet to find his way into the end zone. Newton
has been somewhat of a disappointment for his fantasy owners in
this aspect of his game, and though he’s averaging nearly
six yards per rush, he has just nine carries all season. The Giants
are square in the middle of the pack in rush defense, ranking
16th in the league, yet they have given up two scores on the ground
and are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points in the NFL to RBs,
so Williams makes for a solid RB2 this week.
Projections:
Cam
Newton: 245 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 35 rush yds, 1 TD
Steve
Smith: 80 rec yds
Greg
Olsen: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon
LaFell: 35 rec yds
Ted
Ginn Jr.: 30 rec yds
DeAngelo
Williams: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Mike
Tolbert: 25 rush yds
Prediction: Panthers 24, Giants
21 ^ Top
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