Bills
@ Browns - (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Although
they escaped with a victory, the Bills passing game was not as
effective last week as it had been the first three weeks. Rookie
QB EJ Manuel completed just 10 passes (22 attempts) for 167 yards
(1 TD, 2 INT’s) and the Ravens held the Bills #1 WR Stevie
Johnson to just 1 catch for -1 yards (6 targets). Perhaps the
lone bright spot in this unit was WR Robert Woods who caught 4
balls for 80 yards and a TD, and for the second straight week
played more snaps than Johnson. Woods is not starter-worthy yet
in most fantasy leagues but is certainly someone to watch and
perhaps stash on your bench, as Manuel seems to like the 6’,
2nd round pick quite a bit. With an average receiving corps, a
rookie QB, and a run-heavy game-plan the Bills passing game will
be inconsistent and most likely very average most weeks. This
week, with less time to prepare and on the road and facing one
of the league’s best all-around defenses, this unit may
have it’s worst performance of the year thus far.
The Brown’s passing defense, statistically top 10 in the
NFL, held a more talented Bengals offense to just 206 yards through
the air last week, without giving up a single TD (1 INT, 2 sacks).
Stud CB Joe Haden also held A.J. Green to just 51 yards on 15
targets (7 catches). This week Haden will most likely cover Johnson,
who presents less of a challenge than Green, especially with an
inexperienced rookie throwing to him. Because of this Johnson
is a must-sit this week for all but the most desperate owners.
I like what I see from Manuel for a rookie with limited weapons,
as he seems to have that “it” factor and the will
to win. As a fantasy starter this week however, he just can’t
be trusted, as the Browns are among the 9 toughest teams in terms
of allowing fantasy points to opposing QB’s, not to mention
the Bills run the ball a bit too much to even give Manuel the
chance to put up big numbers (yes, even with their RB injuries
this week). As for the only other 2 semi-legit fantasy options
in this unit, TE Scott Chandler and WR Robert Woods, there are
certainly better options out there, as the Browns are also among
the 6 toughest teams versus opposing fantasy TE’s, and Woods
is simply too up and down right now to be trusted as anything
more than a WR4 (although he would be the 1 guy I’d start
from this unit if FORCED to choose).
Running Game Thoughts: While this unit did put up an impressive
203 yards on the ground versus the Ravens last week, and is normally
a good source of possible fantasy points, the injury status to
both C.J. Spiller (ankle) and Fred Jackson (MCL) make the fantasy
situation very cloudy this week. In last week’s game Jackson
headed to the locker room but came back and played the rest of
the game with what is being called a “mild” MCL sprain.
He is expected to play this week but has a history of injury problems
and will no doubt be much less than 100%. As for Spiller, the
normally more attractive fantasy option, the situation is even
murkier, as Spiller was not able to finish the game after spraining
his ankle in the 3rd quarter. With neither guy having a very impressive
start to their year, it makes matters even scarier for fantasy
owners who drafted Spiller to carry their team but are now scrambling
for a replacement.
On top of everything, the matchup itself this week is a nightmare,
as the Browns are easily one of the NFL’s top 5 run defenses
through four weeks, allowing a meager 2.9 yards per rushing attempt
(1st in NFL) and not allowing a single run over 14 yards (1st
in NFL). While the Bills will continue to make the run game a
priority with some combination of Tashard Choice, Jackson, and
Spiller, it will likely not be very effective, and will probably
spread the wealth around so much between the backs that it will
negate any of them from being starter-worthy. If you absolutely
have no choice but to start one of these guys I’d pick Jackson,
but do not expect anything more than low-end RB3 numbers from
him in a very tough situation and matchup.
Projections:
EJ Manuel: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Steve Johnson: 25 rec yds
Robert Woods: 55 rec yds
Scott Chandler: 40 rec yds
Tashard Choice: 25 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Fred Jackson: 30 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Who would
have thought two weeks after the Browns starting QB (Brandon Weeden)
went down with an injury and they traded away perhaps their best
offensive weapon (Trent Richardson) that QB Brian Hoyer would
lead the Browns to 2 straight wins while throwing for nearly 600
yards in just two games (5 TD, 3 INT). Who also thought that a
defensive minded team would produce two legit fantasy stars in
WR Josh Gordon and TE Jordan Cameron, who have blossomed with
Hoyer at QB, amassing 5 TD’s and well over 300 yards the
past two weeks. With Hoyer starting again this week and a run
game that is struggling, talent-starved, and mostly an after-thought,
the Browns will probably once again air it out 35+ times this
week in an attempt to get their 2 most talented offensive players
the ball as much as possible.
While the Bills pass defense is banged up and allowing the 9th
most yards in the NFL so far, they are actually better than advertised.
Thus far the Bills are actually among the top 8 teams in the NFL
in terms of sacks, interceptions, completion percentage allowed,
and QB rating allowed. What this all means is that teams are not
afraid to air it out a lot against the Bills, but it is not usually
pretty when they do, as evidenced perfectly last week with Joe
Flacco’s 25/50, 347 yds, 2 TD, 5 INT, 4 sack stat line.
While I do not expect the Bills to intercept 5 passes again this
week, Hoyer is not exactly a surgeon under center either. What
I do see is 35+ attempts, a couple TD’s, a couple INT’s
and a pretty ugly performance even if the final yardage numbers
alone look somewhat impressive. For Hoyer the stats mean he may
be a serviceable low-end QB2 this week but the probable turnovers
and inconsistency highly limits his upside. Thankfully for his
two best receivers, Gordon and Cameron, the ugliness, turnovers,
and sacks do not effect their fantasy value directly much and
so each are recommended starts, as the Bills do not have the personnel
to come close to shutting either guy down, especially when they
are each getting targeted 10+ times per game with Hoyer under
center. Cameron is a legit TE1 this week and Gordon is a solid
WR2 versus a Bills secondary who have given up the 2nd most points
to opposing fantasy WR’s through 4 weeks. No other Browns
passing unit player is worth consideration since Gordon and Cameron
are target hogs at this point.
Running Game Thoughts: The Buffalo rushing defense has given up
just 1 rushing TD so far but have allowed the 6th most rushing
yards on the year. To opposing fantasy RB’s the Bills are
actually pretty stingy, being the 8th toughest team so far this
season. With all this being said, the Bills are an average team
to run against, and in most cases, opposing starting RB’s
would be worth starting, even if the expectations were not through
the roof. In the case of the Browns running attack, most of this
info can be thrown out the window because (a.) the Browns have
become a passing team this season and especially the past two
weeks (92 passing attempts to 47 rushes) and (b.) the talent in
the backfield is simply too underwhelming to consider in all but
the very best matchups at this point. RB Willis McGahee looks
like he will be the team’s leader in carries at least for
the foreseeable future, however he does not get involved at all
in the passing game and his 2.4 yards per carry thus far suggest
he is not about to break out any big runs anytime soon. While
it is a small sample size, RB Chris Ogbonnaya has actually been
the Browns best runner since Trent Richardson got traded, averaging
7.1 ypc on 7 carries. Whether the Browns give Ogbonnaya a bigger
workload or not is hard to predict but chances are it would be
a gradual thing, ot something to concern ourselves with this week
specifically. The bottom line here is the Browns RB’s are
under-talented, under-utilized, and in a tougher than one might
expect matchup (fantasy-wise), meaning this unit as a whole is
very avoidable this week as anything more than a very low-end
RB3 (McGahee).
Projections:
Brian Hoyer: 290 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Josh Gordon: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan Cameron: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Willis McGahee: 45 rush yds
Davone Bess: 35 rec yds
Prediction: Browns 27, Bills 20 ^ Top
Saints @ Bears
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Coming into
this game, the Saints are second in the league in passing yards,
fourth in completion percentage, fifth in yards per attempt, and
third in touchdown passes. On the flip side, the Bears pass defense
has allowed the ninth-most yards, the 10th-best completion percentage,
and have less sacks than all but two teams in the league. In other
words, this part of the game sets up to be a big advantage for
the Saints, at least on paper. The Saints' only real issue in
the passing game has been giving up sacks (12, tied for 10th-worst
in the NFL), but rushing the quarterback has been an issue for
the Bears to this point, so Drew Brees may have more time than
usual to find receivers, which of course is a nightmare for opposing
defenses. The one saving grace for the Bears may be that they
have played much better defensively in their two home games compared
to when they travel, both in terms of real NFL defense and allowing
fantasy points. Still, the Saints are one of the elite passing
teams in the league, and while they may sputter a bit away from
the dome, it is a plus matchup for all their passing game players,
and their running backs who catch passes. Brees is an easy QB1
and probably the third best quarterback this week, close behind
Rodgers and Peyton. Marques Colston has only found the end zone
once this season but is getting plenty of catches and yards and
is a solid WR2 this week. Tight end Jimmy Graham is once again
the very best option at TE this week, as he is simply dominating,
both in the NFL and in the fantasy world. The Bears have been
average versus opposing fantasy TEs but have not faced anyone
even close to Graham thus far, so their numbers are about to go
way down. No other Saints passing game player is worth a start
at this point because no other player has shown much consistency,
as Brees mainly favors Graham, Colston, and then his running backs,
in that order.
Running Game Thoughts: While the Saints run game ranks near the
bottom of the NFL in yardage (25th) and the Bears run defense
is a little better than average, those numbers are deceiving,
as the Saints do not really run in the traditional sense. Most
of the “runs” that the they use (at least the more
effective ones) are actually short passes to their backs in the
form of screens or swing passes or check-downs. Anyone who watched
the Saints–Dolphins game last week can tell you that even
though New Orleans only rushed for 68 total yards, their running
backs really accounted for over 200 total yards, doing most of
the damage on short passes (Sproles, 142 yards; Thomas, 38). Until
a defense really takes away these types of passes and the Saints
are forced to use a more traditional rushing attack (which probably
will not happen), I expect to see more of the same weekly.
While the Bears were pretty tough against opposing fantasy RBs
going into last week’s game, that changed quickly as Reggie
Bush put up 173 total yards and a touchdown and Joique Bell added
another 42 total yards. This week, against two similar running
backs (Sproles and Thomas), the Bears will have the home field
advantage and I expect a better effort, at least in slowing down
yardage on the ground. The good thing for the Saints, however,
is that the yardage through the air by their running backs should
continue, making Sproles a good choice as a low-end RB2. Thomas
and even Khiry Robinson have shown flashes this year, but neither
are used consistently enough to warrant starting. Mark Ingram,
who missed the past two games with injury, could be back for this
matchup, but his role is unpredictable, especially since he does
not catch a lot of passes.
Projections:
Drew
Brees: 310 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Darren
Sproles: 30 rush yds, 55 rec yds
Jimmy
Graham: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Marques
Colston: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Pierre
Thomas: 30 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: The first
four weeks of the season have already shown us some big differences
in the Bears passing game compared to last year. Last season the
game plan was basically throw it to wide receiver Brandon Marshall,
regardless of the defense or situation. This season quarterback
Jay Cutler is spreading the ball around much more efficiently,
while still keeping Marshall the focus of the passing attack.
Last weeks game showed that Marshall can still have a semi-decent
game (7/79) while others can step up and contribute just as much
or more, with tight end Martellus Bennett catching eight balls
for 90 yards, and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery having perhaps
his best game of his young career with five catches for 107 yards
and a touchdown. Three legitimate targets to throw to this year
not only helps the Bears but fantasy owners as well, since Cutler
is having his best fantasy year since he was in Denver, while
Marshall and Bennett are legitimate top 10 players at their positions.
This week versus the Saints, chances are that Cutler and company
are going to need to air it out to keep up with Brees. Surprisingly,
compared to years past, the Saints have actually been quite good
in pass defense so far, giving up the sixth-least amount of yards
in the NFL while picking off seven passes (third in the NFL),
and allowing just 56.9 percent of passes completed (eighth in
the NFL). Fantasy-wise they are also tough, ranking among the
toughest 10 teams to score against for opposing QBs, WRs, and
TEs. While the Saints certainly have improved their defense and
scheme under coordinator Rob Ryan, a quick look at the teams they
have played may tell a better story, as only one of them (Atlanta)
is considered a legit passing team and has the kind of weapons
Chicago does. While I do not expect the Bears to put up huge numbers,
they will certainly not be anywhere close to shut down either,
especially at home, where Cutler has played more efficiently this
season. While Cutler is still not a legitimate QB1, this matchup
is good enough for him to put up mid- to high-end QB2 numbers,
especially with a few other QBs on a bye. Marshall is a WR1 again,
and I expect him to get back on track after a disappointing week
against the Lions (he is also playing much better at home this
season). Bennett is again a solid back-end TE1, after scoring
all three of his touchdowns this season at home. Finally, Jeffery,
who is the one guy who has actually played better on the road,
is approaching WR3 status, but personally I would wait another
week to make him prove himself before I’d start him. But
you could certainly do worse at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: Despite last
week's game against the Lions getting quickly out of hand, running
back Matt Forte still had a great fantasy day, rushing for 95
yards and a touchdown and adding five catches for 22 yards. Backup
Michael Bush played just two snaps the whole game, and it is clear
that no matter the game situation, Forte will be the man heavily
involved. While the Bears appear to be more pass-heavy than in
years past, they are still running the ball pretty effectively,
ranking 15th in yards and averaging a respectable 4.5 yards per
carry.
The Saints run defense has only 82 attempts on it thus far (fourth-lowest
in the NFL), probably because many teams have to abandon the run
to keep up with Brees and company, so the amount of yards they
have given up is relatively low. However, the yards per carry
they give up is actually dead last in the league at a generous
5.5. In a home game for the Bears, I expect the Saints offense
to be at least a little rattled, thus affording the Bears an opportunity
to run the football early, and Forte to get a bunch of nice runs
in before the half. Once the Saints offense gets rolling, which
it almost always does, the game may turn into a mini-shootout,
but Forte owners need not worry, as he is averaging nearly six
catches per game this year, meaning he will continue to rack up
yardage regardless of the scoreboard. This matchup is not a dream
matchup for Forte and the Bears, as they probably will not have
the luxury of running out the clock early, but the Saints run
defense is relatively vulnerable, and playing outdoors in Chicago
should give Forte more than enough opportunities to be a solid
back-end RB1 this week.
Projections:
Jay
Cutler: 295 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Matt
Forte: 70 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Brandon
Marshall: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus
Bennett: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Alshon
Jeffery: 70 rec yds
Prediction: Bears 30, Saints 27
^ Top
Patriots @ Bengals
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: Despite a
plethora of injuries, new faces, and inexperience, the Patriots
passing game has performed admirably, ranking 17th in the NFL
in yardage while seemingly getting better every week. While Tom
Brady has not exactly put up monster fantasy numbers, he has been
fairly consistent, getting better with his new receivers, and
is about to get some major weapons back. Tight end Rob Gronkowski
is expected to miss one more week, but Danny Amendola is expected
to return this week, and while he may be a bit limited, he should
demand eight or more targets while probably taking a few away
from Julian Edelman, who has been Brady’s most consistent
weapon to this point.
The matchup this week is a fairly decent one for the Pats passing
attack, as the Bengals are stronger versus the run than the pass
and have actually let up a good amount of fantasy points (15th
most generous to QBs), even to much less talented quarterbacks
(Brian Hoyer 269/2/0). The Patriots offensive line is a very good
one, so they should be able to hang in there against one of the
best defensive lines in the game. This is all good news for Brady,
and I would expect him to put up numbers worthy of a back-end
QB1 this week, despite being on the road. The real issue for fantasy
owners this week concerns which receivers will benefit from the
plus matchup that Brady has. Going into the season, the pecking
order was pretty clear, with Gronkowski and Amendola expected
to get most of the targets and rookies Thompkins and Dobson following
close behind. With injuries to Gronk and Amendola, the rookies
(and Edelman) have had to step up. And while Edelman has been
pretty consistent, Thompkins and Dobson have been hot and cold,
with Thompkins pulling ahead last week (6/127/1), especially after
Dobson left the game with a neck injury. If Amendola comes back
as expected, he should lead the team in targets; however, he still
may not be 100 percent, so expecting anything more than high-end
WR3 numbers from him right away is a gamble. The guy I would most
trust this week is actually Thompkins, as he is the healthiest
and is coming off a breakout game where he led in targets and
yards. Therefore, I’d be comfortable with him as a solid
high-end WR3. Unless you're in a PPR league and we hear that Amendola
is out, I would hesitate to start Edelman, as he does not get
consistent yards (or touchdowns) despite leading the team in catches
and targets. I would not start any other Pats passing game player,
as the ball is spread around too much and we will not be sure
of the pecking order in targets for a few weeks when Brady gets
his full arsenal back.
Running Game Thoughts: Despite having
the sixth most attempts and the ninth most yards on the ground,
the Patriots run game has been a bit of a disaster fantasy-wise.
Starting running back Stevan Ridley, a second-round pick in most
drafts, has struggled mightily, totaling just 174 yards on the
ground (3.7 ypc), and has failed to reach the end zone. Shane
Vereen is out at least a few more weeks and backups LeGarrette
Blount and Brandon Bolden have been average other than one nice
long run each. The passing game and the offensive line have both
played fairly well, so the issues must be with the running backs
themselves or the play calling. Whatever it is, fantasy owners
are not happy.
This week the chances of a coming out party are slim, as the Bengals
are one of the better run-stopping units in the league, ranking
11th in both yards and yards per carry allowed. With the Bengals
being worse against the pass compared to the run, and with the
passing game being New England's strength, I would expect the
Pats to go pass-heavy this game, especially if Amendola is back
in action. While Blount has had back-to-back nice weeks coming
off the bench, I would still expect Ridley to lead the backfield
in carries (if he plays), even if by a slim margin. While it is
tough to bench a guy like Ridley, who you may have invested heavily
in on draft day, you must face the reality that he is a flex play
at best this week and nowhere near the low-end RB1 or high-end
RB2 that you thought he would be. While some owners will get cute
and start Blount this week, I would advise against that. It's
a bad matchup, Ridley still has the coach’s support, and
Blount is not a pass-catching threat, which will hurt his snap
count. Bolden may get a few more snaps than usual, but he is still
well off the fantasy radar.
Ridley
(knee/thigh)has missed practice all week. If he sits, Blount and
Bolden would share carries.
Projections:
Tom
Brady: 280 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Stevan
Ridley: 45 rush yds, 10 rec yds
LeGarrette
Blount: 40 rush yds
Kenbrell
Thompkins: 75 rec yds
Danny
Amendola: 70 rec yds
Julian
Edelman: 55 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Against a
very tough Browns defense last week, Andy Dalton and the Bengals
passing offense looked average, totaling just 206 yards through
the air. Even top five fantasy WR A.J. Green had just 51 yards.
While the Bengals have some weapons in place and Dalton is not
a bad quarterback, it is becoming clear that they are really only
as good as the matchup dictates and not good enough to overcome
a tough opponent. This week the Bengals face off with a better-than-average
passing defense that has had only one bad game so far, and that
was against an elite Falcons passing attack. The Pats rank eighth
best in allowing fantasy points to opposing QBs and have picked
off more passes (5) than they have allowed touchdowns (4) through
the air. They also rank fifth in allowed completion percentage
(54.8). The good news for the Bengals this week is two-fold. First,
they are at home, and Dalton has performed much better at home,
going 2-0 and throwing for more yards and touchdowns and less
INTs. Secondly, the Pats will be without one of their very best
defenders, tackle Vince Wilfork, who is most likely out for the
year with a torn Achilles.
While Dalton will rarely put up big numbers, he should at least
be a mid-level QB2 this week at home, especially with some decent
QBs on a bye this week. As for Green, I expect him to get back
to low-end WR1 numbers after three straight below-average games.
For comparison’s sake, last week Julio Jones, a similarly
skilled receiver, went off for 108 yards against the Pats, despite
sitting out a few snaps late with an injury. While Pats defensive
back Aqib Talib has been playing at an extremely high level thus
far, I expect the Bengals to move Green all over in an effort
to get him the ball more often in space. As for the rest of the
Bengals receivers, I can’t recommend any of them as any
more than desperation starts. There is simply no consistency there
and Green hogs way too many targets to begin with. The situation
reminds me a lot of last year’s Chicago Bears, where Brandon
Marshall was just forced the ball all game long, making all other
receivers worthless in fantasy. With an average quarterback, a
tough matchup, and Green being the only real stud talent-wise,
this is basically a one-man show from a fantasy perspective this
week.
Running Game Thoughts: The changing
of the guard is nearly complete as rookie running back Giovani
Bernard once again outplayed veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis, both
in terms of snaps (50 to 18) and production (77 total yards to
13). While neither back did much against a stifling Browns front
seven last week, there should be more opportunities with the Pats'
front seven being much less imposing, especially without Vince
Wilfork, their best defensive lineman. The Pats have given up
only one rushing touchdown on the year but have allowed 23 catches
by running backs, and without Wilfork, there should be a much
bigger push up front by the Bengals offensive line, which is already
among the league’s better units.
While BJGE should still see a handful of touches to add some power
and keep Bernard fresh, he is quickly falling off the fantasy
radar as anything more than a handcuff. As for Bernard, I would
be shocked if he saw less than 18 touches this week (16 last week),
and he may be Dalton’s second favorite target in the passing
game for the second straight week (7 targets last week). While
Bernard is still not a rock-solid lock to be anything more than
a low-end RB2 due to his lack of a breakout game, he gets enough
touches that you can start him with confidence as a flex guy with
upside. The time to trade for Bernard is flying by fast, get him
now if you still can.
Projections:
Andy
Dalton: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
A.J.
Green: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed
Sanu: 30 rec yds
Jermaine
Gresham: 40 rec yds
Tyler
Eifert: 40 rec yds
Giovani
Bernard: 55 rush yds, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
BenJarvus
Green-Ellis: 35 rush yds
Prediction: Patriots 27 Bengals
24 ^ Top
Lions @ Packers
- (Anderson)
Passing Game Thoughts: This game
has all the makings of something fantasy owners love to see, a
shootout! With both the Lions and Packers having elite offenses
and below-average passing defenses, this should be a game full
of touchdowns and fantasy points. For the Lions, Matthew Stafford
has been averaging over 300 yards passing and nearly two touchdowns
a game, and there is little reason to believe he won’t match
those numbers versus a Packers defense who is giving up 311 passing
yards per game (fifth most in the NFL). The only things going
against the Lions are relatively small: the Packers at home, coming
off a bye, and possibly returning free safety Morgan Burnett.
While these things will give the Packers a slight edge in the
outcome of the game, fantasy owners will be pleased if they own
the main Lions players this week.
The Packers have given up the fifth highest points to opposing
QBs, with Kaepernick, RG3, and Dalton totaling eight touchdowns
(2 INTs) and nearly 1,000 yards. With at least as much talent
and weapons as any of those quarterbacks, Stafford is safely a
legit top five option at QB this week. As for Calvin Johnson,
do the numbers 13 catches, 208 yards and a touchdown impress you?
That was Anquan Boldin’s line versus the Packers in Week
1 and, yes, Johnson is bigger, faster, quicker, and a better leaper
than Boldin. Johnson is an easy top three option at WR this week,
and possibly the very best choice at the position. As for other
receivers, the jury is still out as to who will get the second
most targets, with Nate Burleson out again. Wide receiver Ryan
Broyles got only one target (0 catches) last week, so he cannot
be trusted yet. Tight end Brandon Pettigrew caught all seven of
his targets last week but totaled just 54 yards, and there are
so many tight end options out there that Pettigrew barely makes
it in the top 12 this week, even with a couple of decent TEs on
byes. The only other receiver that might make an impact is Pat
Edwards, who was hurt last week and is worth watching but is not
good enough to start unless you’re truly desperate for a
sleeper WR3. Since so many of Stafford’s passes go to running
backs and Megatron, there is just not a lot left to make another
fantasy starter here.
Running Game Thoughts: Much like
the New Orleans Saints' running game, the Lions' is often a hybrid
between the short passing game and actual handoffs. Combined,
Joique Bell and Reggie Bush have 29 receptions thus far and almost
400 yards, despite Bush's missing one game with an injury. While
the Lions are adept at throwing to their backs, Bush showed last
week against the Bears that he can also gain serious yardage on
traditional runs, as he racked up 139 yards on the ground. With
similar skill sets, the Lions can keep both Bell and Bush fresh
without tipping the defense off to what they are going to do.
With Calvin Johnson keeping defenses honest deep, there should
be plenty of running lanes all year long, including this week.
The Packers have allowed just 93.3 rushing yards per game (eighth
best in the NFL), and while three games is a small sample size,
they did face two quality backs (Frank Gore and Alfred Morris)
and a promising rookie (Giovani Bernard), who all put up just
average games. I expect this game to be play out mostly through
the air on both sides, and while the Lions will certainly not
abandon the run, I believe most of the damage that Bell and Bush
do will be through the air. Bush looks healthy right now and is
running hot, so I see him as a solid mid to high-end RB2 in this
game. As for Bell, I like him a lot if Bush were to go down, but
other than being perhaps an average flex guy this week, his workload
is too inconsistent right now to make starting him anything but
a gamble. You could certainly do worse, but his upside is capped
as long as Bush is healthy and producing, which he seems to be.
Projections:
Matthew
Stafford: 320 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Calvin
Johnson: 135 rec yds, 2 TDs
Brandon
Pettigrew: 50 rec yds
Joique
Bell: 30 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Reggie
Bush: 50 rush yds, 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Patrick
Edwards: 45 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: After a bye
week to rest, recover, and game-plan, the Packers and their elite
passing offense are back in Lambeau, where Aaron Rodgers threw
for 480 yards and four touchdowns the last time they were home
(Week 2). The only passing team member that has any injury concern
this week is tight end Jermichael Finley, who suffered a concussion
two weeks ago has been cleared to practice and looks ready to
play in this game. The matchup is not as juicy as the Redskins,
who they destroyed in Week 2, but it certainly should allow for
shootout-type numbers and plenty of fantasy points for four or
five passing unit members. The Lions passing defense has been
average or a bit below in most categories this year; however,
they do stand out in one area: TD to INT ratio, where they have
picked off eight passes and allowed only four touchdowns. Thus,
the Lions represent just an average matchup fantasy-wise. Still,
it is important to note their previous opponents before touting
them as the next Steel Curtain. In Week 1 the Lions faced one
of the worst passing offense in the league (Vikings), and that
right there accounted for three of their INTs. Rodgers is surely
their toughest matchup to date, and fresh off a bye week, he's
had plenty of time to study all the Lions' weaknesses on defense.
Rodgers is a surefire QB1 this week and a top three option at
the position in a plus matchup.
As for the receivers, it is a guessing game as to which will see
the most targets and yardage, but Rodgers throws enough and spreads
the ball around enough to make four guys fantasy relevant. Thus
far, the Lions defense has actually been more generous to opposing
WR2s than WR1s. While it is tough to say which receiver the Lions
will consider the Packers' No. 1 option, I’m going to guess
it is probably Jordy Nelson, with Randall Cobb being the No. 2
and James Jones the No. 3. In this case, I predict that Cobb will
have the best stats of the three, making him a legitimate mid-range
WR1 this week. While Nelson may not be a true No. 1 this week,
he should still catch enough balls to make him a solid mid-range
WR2, with upside for more if the Lions choose to lock up Cobb
as their top defensive focus. As for Jones, he has been hot and
cold the first three games, but I think there will be enough balls
to go around in a shootout to make him a solid WR3 this week.
Finally, Finley should jump right back in where he left off and
get enough action to be a low-end TE1 while he eases back into
the swing of things after his concussion.
Running Game Thoughts: With running
back James Starks already ruled out, the backfield workload will
basically fall to two rookies, Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin.
Lacy, coming off a concussion, is expected to get most of the
carries while Franklin, coming off a 103-yard, 1-touchdown (1-fumble)
performance on the ground, will most likely serve as the change-of-pace
back. The good news for fantasy owners is that the Lions present
an excellent matchup on the ground, giving up 5.2 yards per carry
(fifth most in the NFL) and have given up five rushing touchdowns
(tied for third most). In addition, the Lions have given up two
receiving touchdowns to running backs already and have allowed
the third most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Of course they
have faced three of the better running backs in the league (Peterson,
Morris, and Forte), but they are obviously nowhere near a lockdown
run defense.
The bad news for Packers RB owners is that at this point it is
all speculation as to how the workload will be divided between
the two backs (and possibly Kuhn), as Lacy looked good in limited
action (and was the higher draft pick) but Franklin filled in
very admirably when needed in Week 3 (his only real action of
the season). Because of the possibility of a fairly even split,
it is hard to strongly recommend either back. However, Lacy would
be my choice (as a mid-range RB2) if I had both backs. If I had
only Franklin, I would be tempted to start him as a flex guy,
but only if I were having bye-week issues or just really had no
better option. It’s too bad the backfield pecking order
has not been more clearly defined, as this is a very nice matchup.
It will be interesting to see how this situation plays out, as
it will certainly have important fantasy implications for the
rest of the season.
Projections:
Aaron
Rodgers: 310 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Jordy
Nelson: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Randall
Cobb: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
James
Jones: 55 rec yds
Jermichael
Finley: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Eddie
Lacy: 55 rush yds, 15 rec yds, 1 TD
Johnathan
Franklin: 50 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Prediction: Packers 35, Lions 30
^ Top
Chiefs at Titans
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Nobody in
the Chiefs’ passing attack is a fantasy darling at the moment.
Alex Smith is ninth among quarterbacks in fantasy points, with
a noticeable chunk of those points coming due to his 152 rushing
yards, because he’s outside the top-20 in passing yards
and tied for ninth in touchdown throws. Smith’s lack of
passing prowess has hurt fantasy owners who expected Dwayne Bowe
to be a major contributor. So far, he’s third on his team
in receiving yards (behind Donnie Avery and Jamaal Charles) and
ranks only 47th among wideouts in fantasy points. Bowe could have
difficulty improving his stock much this week against what has
been a good Titans pass defense.
Tennessee ranks 11th in the league against the pass and their
14 sacks are tied for third-most in the NFL. They have allowed
the 10th-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks and seventh-fewest to wide
receivers. The Titans have yet to allow a 300-yard passer and
just one quarterback has thrown for multiple touchdowns against
them. They have been vulnerable against tight ends though, having
allowed the fourth-most FPts/G to players at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: Despite having
rushed for only 289 yards this season, which ranks 11th in the
league, Jamaal Charles is second among running backs in fantasy
points. He’s done about half his damage this season as a
receiver, having accumulated 213 receiving yards (second among
backs) and is one of only two backs with more than one receiving
touchdown. The method in which Charles picks up points is irrelevant
– he’s a must-start for fantasy owners this week against
Tennessee.
The Titans are tied for 11th in run defense a quarter of the way
through the season. The two rushing scores they’ve allowed
puts them in a tie for 10th (with eight other teams), but they
have given up 4.3 YPC, which is 25th in the NFL. Tennessee has
surrendered the 15th-most FPts/G to running backs this year, with
just one back gaining at least 80 yards against them.
Projections:
Alex
Smith: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Dwayne
Bowe: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Donnie
Avery: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Dexter
McCluster: 30 rec yds
Sean
McGrath: 25 rec yds
Jamaal
Charles: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 55 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Jake Locker
is sidelined with a hip injury he suffered last week, so Ryan
Fitzpatrick will start under center against the Chiefs. He was
3-for-8 for 108 yards last week, including a 77-yard touchdown
to Nate Washington. I wouldn’t be putting Fitzpatrick on
my fantasy roster, and in fact the only Titans pass-catcher we’d
consider is Washington. The team’s top wideout is 14th in
the NFL in receiving yards and 16th in fantasy points. Against
the Chiefs, consider him a WR2.
The Chiefs come into this game sporting the league’s third-ranked
pass defense, while also leading the NFL in sacks and having given
up just a trio of touchdown passes, which is tied for fourth-fewest.
Only six teams have surrendered fewer FPts/G to quarterbacks than
K.C., and no team has ceded fewer FPts/G to tight ends. They’re
in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to
wideouts, with both Dez Bryant and Victor Cruz having games of
at least 140 yards and one touchdown against them.
Running Game Thoughts: Chris Johnson
had his ugliest game of the season last week against the Jets,
running for only 21 yards on 15 carries. It’s been a strange
year for Johnson, who started with games of 70, 96, and 90 rushing
yards, but averaged more than 3.8 YPC in just one of those games
while being a non-entity as a receiver and failing to score a
touchdown. Johnson currently has fewer fantasy points than the
likes of James Starks and Jason Snelling but if he is going to
get going, the Chiefs offer a prime opportunity.
Stout against the pass, the reverse is true for Kansas City against
the run. They have the league’s 24th-ranked rush defense
and are allowing a whopping 5.4 YPC, which is second-to-last in
the league. Yet they’ve kept backs from getting too involved
in the passing game and have surrendered only a pair of rushing
scores. Just one of those touchdowns came via a running back,
which is why they have given up the third-fewest FPts/G in the
NFL to running backs.
Projections:
Ryan
Fitzpatrick: 250 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Nate
Washington: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Kendall
Wright: 60 rec yds
Damian
Williams: 45 rec yds
Delanie
Walker: 20 rec yds
Justin
Hunter: 20 rec yds
Chris
Johnson: 110 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Jackie
Battle: 25 rush yds
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Titans 20
^ Top
Seahawks at Colts
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Russell Wilson
is clearly a big-time talent, but his numbers shouldn’t
get fantasy owners excited. A quarter through the season, he is
21st in fantasy points at his position and his 123 passing yards
last week marked the third straight game in which he had fewer
than 205 yards through the air. Wilson did run for 77 yards, but
that was his first game this season with more than 35 rushing
yards. With a banged-up offensive line, no real receiving threats
and a good Colts pass defense, I’d keep Wilson away from
my fantasy lineup this week.
Indianapolis has allowed only a pair of touchdown throws all year,
which is tied for fewest in the NFL. They’re eighth in pass
defense and a top-10 unit in both sacks and interceptions. Accordingly,
they’ve relinquished the third-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks
and the fourth-fewest to wide receivers. The Colts are one of
only eight teams who have yet to give up a touchdown to a tight
end and have allowed the 12th-fewest FPts/G to players at that
position.
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn
Lynch is once again the linchpin (pun intended) of the Seattle
offense. And once again, that is a very good thing for his fantasy
owners. Lynch is sixth in the league in rushing and fifth in fantasy
points so far this season, making him a no-brainer as a RB1. Indy
has been solid against running backs this season, but the only
exceptional back they’ve played has been Frank Gore, and
he had 82 yards on just 11 carries against them.
The Colts are tied for 16th in the league in run defense, tied
for 22nd in both rushing scores and YPC allowed, yet have surrendered
the sixth-fewest FPts/G to running backs. The reason for the disparity
is clear – more than one-third of the rushing yards they’ve
allowed have come from players other than running backs and just
three teams have given up fewer receiving yards to backs than
Indy.
Projections:
Russell
Wilson: 195 pass yds, 1 TD, 20 rush yds
Golden
Tate: 60 rec yds
Sidney
Rice: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Doug
Baldwin: 45 rec yds
Zach
Miller: 15 rec yds
Marshawn
Lynch: 80 rush yds, 2 TD, 10 rec yds
Robert
Turbin: 20 rush yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck
isn’t exactly setting the world on fire with his arm so
far this season, ranking 22nd in passing yards and tied for 18th
in touchdown throws. Yet he’s also 10th in fantasy points
at his position because he’s rushed for 126 yards and two
scores which are tied for most among quarterbacks. Fantasy owners
are still getting production from Luck’s weapons, mainly
Reggie Wayne, who continues to produce and ranks 20th at wide
receiver in fantasy points. Also emerging, though inconsistently,
is Coby Fleener, who has two games with at least 69 yards and
one touchdown. Despite all this positive fantasy news, I’d
pump the brakes on any big expectations this week from that group
against Seattle.
The Seahawks allowed 355 passing yards last week to Matt Schaub,
but are still fifth in the NFL in pass defense and tied for fourth
in touchdowns allowed. They’re also tied for third in interceptions
and are holding opposing quarterbacks to the lowest passer rating
in football. Seattle surrendered 141 yards and one touchdown to
Houston tight ends a week ago, which is why they are now 13th
in FPts/G allowed at the position, but they have still allowed
the sixth-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks and the fewest FPts/G
to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: It looks
as if Ahmad Bradshaw will be sidelined once again, meaning the
Colts will turn over the running game to the wholly underwhelming
Trent Richardson. The former third overall pick has scored in
each of his two games with Indy, yet he’s run for a total
of 95 yards, and his YPC average has been 2.7 and 3.0, respectively.
He’s at least worth a flex play because of the touches he’ll
receive, but fantasy owners shouldn’t hold their breath
awaiting a breakout against the Seahawks.
Seattle is 18th in the league against the run, 20th in YPC allowed,
and tied for 10th in rushing scores given up. They’ve ceded
the 13th-fewest FPts/G in the NFL to running backs, though that
number would be lower if Arian Foster hadn’t amassed 69
yards and a receiving score last week. Bottom line – though
their numbers aren’t super impressive, they’re still
more than capable of shutting down an opponent’s running
attack.
Projections:
Andrew
Luck: 245 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 25 rush yds
Reggie
Wayne: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
T.Y.
Hilton: 60 rec yds
Coby
Fleener: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Darrius
Heyward-Bey: 30 rec yds
Trent
Richardson: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Donald
Brown: 15 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Colts 24
^ Top
Jets at Falcons
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: The Jets
will be missing Santonio Holmes and likely Stephen Hill this week,
making rookie Geno Smith’s job that much tougher. Minus
his top two receivers, Smith will have to depend on Jeremy Kerley,
Clyde Gates, and Kellen Winslow to get the job done. Smith’s
rushing numbers have helped him stay in the top-15 among quarterbacks
in fantasy points, but his four touchdowns rank tied for 27th
and the eight interceptions he’s tossed are second-most
in the NFL. Winslow will have to be more consistent than he’s
been, but I think Kerley could have a solid game against an Atlanta
defense that has struggled against the pass this season.
The Falcons have allowed at least 315 yards to opposing quarterbacks
in all but one game this year and every quarterback they’ve
faced has thrown for at least a pair of touchdowns. Fittingly,
they are 27th in the league in pass defense and tied for 25th
in passing scores relinquished. Atlanta has surrendered the eighth-most
FPts/G to quarterbacks this season, the fourth-most to wide receivers
and the 14th-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Bilal Powell
has been a nice surprise for fantasy owners this season, ranking
14th in fantasy points at his position. He has just one touchdown,
but has run for at least 4.7 YPC in each of the last two weeks
and has more than 20 receiving yards in three of his four games
this year. I don’t think the return of Mike Goodson will
have too much of an impact on this week with the biggest obstacle
to Powell’s success being the Falcons solid run defense.
Atlanta is eighth in the NFL in rush defense, tied for 10th in
rushing scores yielded and is 13th in YPC allowed. They have yet
to allow a single running back to gain at least 65 yards against
them but have still allowed the 13th-most FPts/G to players at
that position because they have given up the sixth-most receiving
yards to backs. That comes with a caveat, however – of the
206 receiving yards they’ve allowed to running backs, 88
came in Week 1 against Darren Sproles.
Projections:
Geno
Smith: 250 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 35 rush yds
Jeremy
Kerley: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Kellen
Winslow: 60 rec yds
Jeff
Cumberland: 35 rec yds
Clyde Gates: 30 rec yds
Bilal
Powell: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Mike
Goodson: 25 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Despite the
near disappearance of Roddy White due to his injury, Matt Ryan
is still third in the league in passing yards and fifth among
quarterbacks in fantasy points. White now seems to be getting
closer to full strength, which should help make Ryan even better.
He still has Julio Jones (fourth in fantasy points at wide receiver)
and Tony Gonzalez (fifth in fantasy points at tight end) to throw
to, with Jones a serious candidate to have a big game versus a
New York team that has struggled against wide receivers.
Though the Jets are ninth in the league in pass defense, they
are tied for 17th in touchdown throws given up and their one interception
is tied for 28th. They’ve allowed the 13th-fewest FPts/G
to quarterbacks and the sixth-fewest to tight ends but have had
trouble with opposing wideouts. New York has given up the 10th-most
FPts/G to players at that position, with eight different receivers
having games with at least 50 yards against them.
Running Game Thoughts: The Falcons
running game has had their troubles without Steven Jackson, as
Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling failing to rush for a score
in the two games they’ve been without the workhorse back.
Rodgers is capable of being a flex play most weeks, but I don’t
like his chances of producing much this week against the Jets,
who have been outstanding against opposing runners this season.
Only six teams have allowed fewer rushing yards this season than
the Jets, and they’ve surrendered just a single rushing
score, which is tied for third in the league. Runners are gaining
just 3.0 YPC against them, a mark which is better than all but
one other team and no squad has relinquished fewer receiving yards
to running backs than New York. Add it all up, and you get a team
that has allowed fewer FPts/G to running backs than any other
this season.
Projections:
Matt
Ryan: 330 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Julio
Jones: 110 rec yds, 2 TD
Roddy
White: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Tony
Gonzalez: 60 rec yds
Harry
Douglas: 35 rec yds
Jacquizz
Rodgers: 45 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Jason
Snelling: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Prediction: Falcons 27, Jets 17
^ Top
Jaguars @ Rams
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: After a two
week hiatus due to a hand laceration, Blaine Gabbert made his
triumphant return for the Jaguars in Week 4...just kidding, he
was just as awful as usual. Gabbert threw his third, fourth and
fifth interceptions in another blowout loss for the Jaguars, this
time at home to their division rivals, the Indianapolis Colts.
It’s truly baffling that Gabbert is still on an NFL roster,
let alone starting for a team, but that’s what the Jaguars
plan on doing again on Sunday as they trot out Gabbert for what
could be another humiliatingly performance. He’ll be up
against a St. Louis Rams secondary that is very beatable, having
allowed multiple touchdown passes in every game this season, but
being that the Jaguars have only one passing touchdown as a team
all season, and it wasn’t thrown by Gabbert, it’s
hard to believe that the Rams’ string of multiple-TD’s
allowed will continue.
As if things weren’t ugly enough, it appears as if Jacksonville
has already thrown in the towel on 2013 as they traded former
top 10 NFL draft pick, bookend left tackle Eugene Monroe, to the
Baltimore Ravens earlier this week. Monroe may not be an elite
player, but he is still a very good player and one that helped
alleviate the pressure that came from the quarterback’s
blind side. With Monroe gone, there will likely be even less time
for Gabbert to attempt to find open receivers, especially against
an under-appreciated St. Louis Rams front-four that can get after
the passer. Defensive end Robert Quinn already has five sacks
this season and could be a major force in this game as Blaine
Gabbert has been sacked 10 times in just two games this year;
and that was with Monroe protecting him. If there is any positive
to bring into this game for the Jaguars passing game, it’s
that 2012 first round pick Justin Blackmon will be making his
first appearance of the season after serving a four game suspension.
Jacksonville coaches have raved about how their receiver has looked
in practice and while Cecil Shorts is still likely the player
to own in this passing game if there is one, Blackmon being on
the field will certainly help pull some of the coverage away from
Shorts. Unfortunately both Shorts and Blackmon were significantly
better fantasy options with Chad Henne behind center than they
ever were with Gabbert, so it’d be wise to look elsewhere
for receiver help this week unless you’re absolutely desperate.
Running Game Thoughts: A former top five fantasy pick, it’s
sad to see just how far Maurice Jones-Drew has fallen as a member
of this atrocious offense. Like most of the Jaguars, Jones-Drew’s
stat lines have been ugly in 2013, with his best rushing performance
of the year coming in the form of a 3.0 yards per carry average
against the Chiefs in Week 1. Since then, his numbers have steadily
fallen and he now carries an abysmal 2.4 yards per carry average
into the Jaguars’ Week 4 matchup against the St. Louis Rams.
What’s worse is that while Jones-Drew used to be one of
the premier pass-catching backs in the league, including back-to-back
50-plus catch seasons for the Jaguars in ‘08 and ‘09,
he has been almost completely uninvolved in the passing game this
season. In four games, Jones-Drew has caught only four passes
for 25 yards. While he did get into the end zone in garbage time
against the Seahawks in Week 3, the truth is that this is by far
the worst fantasy season of the former rushing champion’s
career and one that will likely tank whatever possibility he had
of getting one more big contract.
On the plus side, Jones-Drew and the Jaguars rushing attack do
have as good of a matchup as they could hope for this week against
a St. Louis defense that is fresh off of allowing over 200 yards
rushing to the 49ers in Week 4. While Jacksonville’s offensive
line does not compare favorably to the 49ers’, there is
still hope that Jones-Drew could produce against the league’s
most vulnerable defense in points allowed to opposing running
backs. Since holding the Cardinals backs to just nine total fantasy
points in Week 1, St. Louis has allowed over 20 points to opposing
running backs in each of their past three games. It’s hard
to forgive players when they’ve been performing this poorly,
but if he’s still on your roster, try to fit Jones-Drew
in your lineup just one more time. If he can’t get it done
against the Rams, it may be time to sit him down for good.
Projections:
Blaine Gabbert: 160 pass yds, 2 INT
Maurice Jones-Drew: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Cecil Shorts: 60 rec yds
Justin Blackmon: 50 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: A tease of fantasy production to start the
season made some owners interested, but back-to-back performances
of under 250 yards passing and only one score in each game has
brought expectations for Sam Bradford back down to Earth. The
Rams QB still has a very respectable 7-to-3 touchdown-to-interception
ratio on the year, but his numbers against Dallas and San Francisco
simply haven’t made him a worthwhile fantasy starter. Some
of that may come from poor offensive line play and the fact that
he’s been sacked 11 times during those two contests, but
some of that does have to fall on the quarterback as well. He’s
simply not seeing reading the defense well before the snap or
feeling the pressure before it comes; and it’s causing him
to take a lot of unnecessary punishment. There was a lot of hype
surrounding the Rams’ passing game coming into the season,
with both Tavon Austin and Chris Givens finding themselves on
many “sleeper” lists. That hasn’t exactly panned
out as planned, however, as both players have been underwhelming
thus far. Austin did have a nice fantasy day in Week 2 when he
caught two touchdowns, but has not topped 50 yards in any game
and his 6.2 yards per reception average is shockingly low for
a player whose biggest asset is his speed and elusiveness. Givens
also had a nice day in Week 2 when he caught five passes for 105
yards, but has been hard to find on the stat sheet outside of
that game.
Tight end Jared Cook has also struggled to remain fantasy relevant
since an enormous Week 1 breakout when he caught seven passes
for 141 yards and two scores (which could have very easily been
three if he had held onto the ball on a long pass where he was
caught from behind by a defender). Since that game, Cook has just
10 total catches for 99 yards and no scores. Like many “efficient”
quarterbacks do, Sam Bradford has spread the ball out a lot this
season. In fact, in the team’s Week 4 loss to the 49ers,
it was receiver Austin Pettis who led the team with nine targets,
although Cook, Givens and Austin all had eight targets themselves.
With Bradford not really locking into any one receiver, it’s
hard for any of them to be particularly great fantasy options,
but each one could find a spot on some fantasy rosters this week
against a Jaguars defense that has surrendered 24 receptions and
four touchdowns to opposing wide receivers over their past two
games.
Running Game Thoughts: It was a confusing running back situation
to assess in the preseason and just when things started to clear
up, the Rams’ Daryl Richardson tweets that he’s not
going to get the start for the team in Week 4. While it’s
hard to assess what that actually means aside from that Richardson
won’t be on the field for the first play of the game, what
we do expect is that Isaiah Pead will see increased reps in Week
5. Pead was a healthy scratch this past week against the 49ers
and has been hit with disciplinary action already this year, but
he is arguably the most talented back in the bunch and the one
who is most capable of taking advantage of this opportunity. Unfortunately
rookies Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham are also breathing down
his neck and conflicting reports from various sources have even
said that one of them will get the majority of touches in Week
5. Head coach Jeff Fisher has been very non-committal about the
situation and has given the typical “coach speak”
about how the running back position will depend on the situations
and formations that they run. Even though they’re up against
a Jaguars run defense that has allowed an average of 159 yards
per game to opposing running backs, this running back by committee
is as ugly as it gets and one that fantasy owners should try to
stay away from. If there’s one player to consider, I would
say it’s Pead who could be a decent low-end contributor
in PPR formats, provided that he makes the 53-man roster this
week.
Projections:
Sam Bradford: 260 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Daryl Richardson: 30 rush yds
Isaiah Pead: 20 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Benny Cunningham: 15 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Chris Givens: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Tavon Austin: 50 rec yds
Austin Pettis: 40 rec yds
Jared Cook: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Rams 23, Jaguars 13
^ Top
Panthers @ Cardinals
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Things started
off a little slow in the fantasy department for Cam Newton this
season, but an excellent breakout week against the Giants in Week
3 reminded us why he was a top five fantasy quarterback in drafts.
Newton threw the ball for 223 yards and three touchdowns, but
really showed where he differs from the other elite fantasy quarterbacks
when he rushed for an additional 45 yards and another touchdown;
his first of the season. Although DeAngelo Williams has seen a
nice resurgence this year, there is no question that the Carolina
offense runs through Newton. In addition to the nice game, fantasy
owners should be encouraged that the Panthers are coming off of
a bye week and have essentially had two weeks to prepare for this
week’s contest in Arizona.
Prior to their nice day against rookie Mike Glennon who was making
the first start of his career a week ago in Tampa, the Cardinals
pass defense had been awful this season. Coming into Week 4, they
had allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for an average of 306
yards per game while surrendering a total of seven passing touchdowns
and intercepting only two passes. Patrick Peterson remains one
of the game’s premier shutdown corners, but the rest of
the unit around him has not played well this year at all. Newton
himself has only gone up against Arizona once in his career. It
happened in his first game as a pro back in 2011, when he carved
the defense up for 422 yards and two scores while also rushing
for a touchdown. Newton is a must-start most weeks and certainly
remains that against a subpar Cardinals secondary. Wide receiver
Steve Smith has a tough matchup against Patrick Peterson and he
has averaged just 48 yards per game so far with just one touchdown.
Those stats would typically indicate being a WR3/FLEX option and
that may only because he is Newton’s favorite target and
thus should get plenty of opportunities. Former top-10 NFL draft
pick Ted Ginn Jr. does have touchdowns in back-to-back weeks,
but his upside is limited given the number of targets he gets
(only 13 in three games). The best player in this passing game
to own this week might actually be tight end Greg Olsen who has
been his typical consistent self so far in 2013. Olsen is second
on the team with 24 targets, but leads the team in both receptions
(16) and yardage (194 yards) through three games. This week, he
has a particularly enticing matchup against an Arizona Cardinals
defense that has surrendered the second-most fantasy points to
opposing tight ends this season. Both Jared Cook and Jimmy Graham
scored multiple touchdowns against this defense and although Olsen
may not be quite as physically gifted as those two are, he is
still a mountain of a main who can move and exploit mismatches
in coverage.
Running Game Thoughts: A formerly elite fantasy running back
who has spent multiple years on “most disappointing players”
lists, DeAngelo Williams has had a shocking return to fantasy
glory thus far in 2013. Williams has reached the 100 total yard
mark in two of his first three games and had 85 yards in the other.
While he hasn’t hit the end zone yet, those yardage outputs
have been welcomed by fantasy owners who typically selected him
as a RB3 or even RB4. With Jonathan Stewart still out, Williams
will look to add to those numbers.
Unfortunately he’ll be up against a Cardinals run defense
that has been excellent against opposing running backs this season.
They have not allowed 100 rushing yards to opposing backs in any
single game this season, nor have they allowed a single touchdown
to the position yet this year. That includes games against the
Lions duo of Joique Bell and Reggie Bush, as well as Tampa Bay’s
second-year back Doug Martin. Where the Cardinals have been exploited
a bit is in the passing game, where they’ve allowed an average
of eight receptions per game to opposing backs. Williams, however,
has never been very involved much in the Panthers’ passing
game, and especially not since Newton took over at QB in 2011.
Williams has just 33 catches in his past 35 games and that won’t
likely change this week. If someone is going to make an impact
in the passing game out of the backfield, it might be fullback
Mike Tolbert. Tolbert caught 27 passes in 2012, but had a big
season as a receiver in 2011 as a member of the Chargers when
he caught 54 passes. Tolbert is also the team’s short yardage
and goal line back, which could mean that he is a sneaky FLEX
play this week.
Projections:
Cam Newton: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 40 rush yds, 1 TD
DeAngelo Williams: 60 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Mike Tolbert: 20 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Steve Smith: 50 rec yds
Brandon LaFell: 40 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: A 300-plus yard, two-touchdown performance
in Week 1 had fantasy owners licking their chops, but things have
been tough for Carson Palmer and the Cardinals since that point.
Palmer hasn’t surpassed 250 yards in any of his past three
games and he has only thrown two touchdown passes during that
span. He has, however, been the “gunslinger” we’ve
come to expect him to be; and has now thrown six interceptions
on the year. While we can forgive him for a less-than-stellar
performance against Darrelle Revis and the Buccaneers and even
against the Saints secondary that has overachieved this season,
but throwing for only 248 yards, one touchdown and one interception
against the Lions in Week 2 was certainly disappointing.
He does have a surprisingly tough matchup in Week 5 as he will
be up against the Panthers who are allowing an average of fewer
than 10 points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.
While they haven’t been up against the best of quarterbacks,
no one could have expected that this mediocre secondary would
be allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Palmer may not be a fantasy starter this week, but one guy who
remains valuable even with uninspiring play from his quarterback
is Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald has gone from being barely a top-50
play at receiver a year ago into the top-20 thus far in 2013.
He caught his third touchdown of the year a week ago, even though
he was not targeted on a single pass in the first half of the
game. Carolina doesn’t have a Revis-like player in their
secondary, so one has to expect that he will get many more opportunities
this week, thus making him a very good WR2 option.
Running Game Thoughts: With just 50 yards on his past 21 carries,
it’s hard to believe that the leash on running back Rashard
Mendenhall is too long right now. Mendenhall had not reached 70
yards on the ground in any game this season and although he does
have a touchdown, he’s been a disappointing fantasy contributor
most weeks. Even with his lack of production, however, Mendenhall
remains the lead dog in the Arizona backfield with only Andre
Ellington seeing significant touches behind him. Ellington has
only 10 carries over his past three games, but he has also been
involved in the receiving game, catching eight passes over that
timespan. If Mendenhall continues to perform poorly, we could
continue to see more from Andre Ellington or even third string
back Alfonso Smith.
None of these backs are a particularly great fantasy option in
Week 4, however, against an underrated Panthers front seven that
shut down Marshawn Lynch in Week 1 and has allowed only one touchdown
to an opposing running back all season. Where Carolina has been
beaten up a bit is by backs that can catch the ball out of the
backfield, where they’ve allowed an average of seven receptions
per game to the position. This isn’t anything new, either,
as they allowed more receiving yardage to opposing running backs
than any team in the league in 2012. This could mean increased
opportunities for Andre Ellington out of the backfield, but we
really can’t guarantee that enough to actually suggest putting
him in your fantasy lineup. Rashard Mendenhall is still the only
Arizona back worth any real fantasy consideration at this time,
and even that is as a RB3/FLEX.
Projections:
Carson Palmer: 235 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Rashard Mendenhall: 40 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Andre Ellington: 20 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Cardinals 24, Panthers
20 ^ Top
Texans @ 49ers
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Houston Texans
fans have been calling for the head of quarterback Matt Schaub
after having thrown pick-sixes in three straight contests, but
fantasy owners haven’t had quite the hatred for the QB.
He did have one ugly performance against the Ravens in Week 3,
but Schaub’s fantasy numbers really haven’t been bad.
He’s averaging two touchdowns and nearly 300 yards passing
per game. He has also thrown six interceptions on the year, but
it’s hard to be too critical of a fantasy quarterback who
has three games of 18-plus fantasy points. He’ll never be
elite, but Schaub is a decent enough bye-week fill-in and a valuable
option in two-quarterback leagues.
This week will be a tough contest, though, as he’s up against
a San Francisco defense that has been dominant against opposing
quarterbacks since a brutally bad performance against Aaron Rodgers
in Week 1. Since that game, the 49ers are allowing just 168 passing
yards per game and have surrendered only two touchdown passes.
Even with Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis on the sidelines, the
49ers have remained an elite defense. Schaub’s value is
lower this week than usual because of the matchup, but one player
who is essentially matchup-proof is receiver Andre Johnson. Johnson
is averaging 8.5 receptions per game, putting him on pace for
a ridiculous 136 receptions on the year. In addition to Johnson,
the Texans rookie receiver DeAndre Hopkins has already proven
himself as a valuable option opposite Johnson in the passing game.
He had his worst game of the year in Week 4 with only two catches,
but had caught 18 passes for 233 yards and a touchdown through
the first three games of the season. With Johnson and Hopkins
drawing so much of opposing coverages, tight ends Owen Daniels
and Garrett Graham have been surprisingly productive. Graham has
a touchdown in three of four games this season while Daniels has
three scores on the year himself and has caught five or more passes
in three of four games this year. Both Daniels and Graham have
to be considered low-end options at their position, but for those
dealing with bye weeks, you could do worse than one of the Texans
tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s been an up-and-down season
for running back Arian Foster this season, who may still be dealing
with the after-effects of off-season injuries that kept him out
of much of training camp and the preseason. Foster, who was taken
as high as the No. 2 overall pick in some fantasy leagues, has
averaged nearly 100 total yards per game, but has only made it
into the end zone twice thus far on the season. The Texans offense
has struggled to score in each of their past two games, having
scored only 29 total points over that span. A lot of that can
be placed on Matt Schaub who has turned the ball over too much,
but Foster and the running game needs to produce like they did
last week if the Texans want to turn this season around. Foster
rushed for 102 yards—his first 100-yard game of the year—in
addition to 69 yards and a touchdown as a receiver. Backup running
back Ben Tate has also been involved from week to week, having
taken 34 carries for 228 in four games this year. While Tate himself
isn’t much of a fantasy option at the moment, it’s
nice to see that he remains one of the premier handcuff backs
in the league.
This week the Texans will be up against a 49ers defense that
performed extremely well against the Rams last week, but has struggled
mightily to slow down other runners this year. Prior to allowing
just 22 rushing yards and no touchdowns to St. Louis, the 49ers
had allowed six touchdowns and 430 yards to opposing running backs
through their first three games. In fairness, we have to expect
that the 49ers are better against the run than what their stats
have shown, but they may not be as good in 2013 as they have been
in the past. Foster is an obvious starter no matter the format,
but back-to-back 100-yard games might be tough.
Projections:
Matt Schaub: 270 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Arian Foster: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Ben Tate: 20 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Andre Johnson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
DeAndre Hopkins: 55 rec yds
Owen Daniels: 40 rec yds
Garrett Graham: 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Following two horrendous performances by
quarterback Colin Kaepernick, fantasy owners have to be a little
inspired after seeing their quarterback throw two touchdowns in
a win over the Rams in Week 4. It certainly wasn’t a superb
fantasy day as he threw for only 167 yards and rushed for 11,
but the positive was that he didn’t look completely terrible.
After being one of the most prolific quarterback runners at the
quarterback position a season ago, Kaepernick has disappointed
in that area this season. He has rushed for 22 or fewer yards
in three of his four contests this season and despite an 87-yard
rushing performance against the Seahawks, has not yet scored a
touchdown as a runner. Receiver Anquan Boldin and tight end Vernon
Davis got back into fantasy owners’ good graces with a touchdown
each a week ago. The concerns about Davis continue, however, as
he has missed his Week 3 game with a concussion and has just 38
yards receiving in his past two games combined. Boldin, on the
other hand, appears to be a very solid WR2 option at the moment.
Other than a tough matchup against the Seahawks in Week 2, Boldin
has hit double digits in fantasy points (PPR formats) in each
of his other three games, including a 13-catch, 208-yard performance
in Week 1.
Kaepernick, Boldin and Davis are all likely too talented to bench
this week, even against a Houston defense that hasn’t surrendered
a 200-yard passer this season. Houston didn’t allow a touchdown
pass in either of their past two games, but it’s worth noting
that the game against Flacco and the Ravens was not close, so
the Ravens really didn’t have to pass much. It’s also
important to point out that while Russell Wilson threw for only
123 yards; he also rushed for 77. The rushing yards allowed to
Wilson have to give Kaepernick owners some hope, though expectations
should still remain in check.
Running Game Thoughts: The rumors of Frank Gore’s demise
have been greatly exaggerated. The 49ers back proved that in Week
4 with a huge performance that netted him 153 yards and a score
on the ground. San Francisco’s offensive line had been underperforming
thus far in 2013, but they really got things going against a very
good St. Louis front seven last week. After rushing for just 60
yards on 30 carries in his first two games, Gore has now rushed
for 235 yards on 31 carries in his past two games. It’s
hard to believe that he’ll stay on that kind of pace, but
it’s very nice to know that Gore still has something in
the tank and this offensive line hasn’t completely fallen
apart.
They’ll be up against a Texans defense that has allowed
double-digit fantasy points (standard scoring) to opposing running
backs in every game this season, including 151 total yards and
a touchdown to the Seahawks a week ago. JJ Watt and company are
certainly talented enough to stop the run, but this 49ers offensive
line is also one of the most physically gifted in the league.
Gore will be in most fantasy lineups, as well he should be, but
Kendall Hunter has also been involved in the 49ers offense as
of late, having scored a touchdown in back-to-back games. Hunter
isn’t much of a fantasy option himself until he starts to
get more carries on a week-to-week basis, but he is certainly
capable of vulturing touchdowns from Gore.
Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 160 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 50 rush yds
Frank Gore: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Kendall Hunter: 30 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Anquan Boldin: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Vernon Davis: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: 49ers 27, Texans 24
^ Top
Chargers @ Raiders
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: The resurgence
of Philip Rivers continued a week ago when he threw for his second
400-yard game of the season in a win over the Dallas Cowboys.
Rivers is averaging nearly 300 yards per game, but it’s
his touchdown-to-interception ratio that has been most impressive.
Aside from the ridiculous season that Peyton Manning is putting
together, there may not be another quarterback who is hotter than
Rivers. With only two interceptions, Rivers is on pace to throw
only eight on the year after throwing 35 picks over his past two
seasons. Not only that, but his 11 touchdowns are second-best,
only behind the aforementioned Manning. Perhaps more surprisingly
than Rivers’ revival has been that of tight end Antonio
Gates who had been all but written off as over the hill coming
into the 2013 season. After his big game against the Cowboys a
week ago, Gates now leads the team with 364 yards and has also
been the recipient of two touchdowns. It may be tough to fully
trust Gates after he has performed so poorly in recent memory,
but this is still a guy who knows how to use his physical abilities
to get open and beat defenders, particularly in the end zone.
Another Chargers pass-catcher, Eddie Royal, has been practically
invisible over the past two games after two huge performances
to start the season. Royal caught a total of five touchdowns in
Weeks 1 and 2, but has since caught only five total passes—none
for touchdowns—in his past two games.
This surprisingly high-powered passing game goes into Week 5
with an excellent matchup against a Raiders secondary that is
among the very worst in the league. Oakland has allowed seven
passing touchdowns against them and is one of only two defense
to have not yet forced an interception this season. The biggest
worry about the Chargers’ offense this week might be that
they get out to too big of a lead and take their foot off the
gas pedal. By then, though, Rivers and these receivers could have
done their damage.
Running Game Thoughts: Part of the reason that the Chargers passing
attack has been so productive this season is that they’ve
had to throw the ball a lot due to the complete ineptitude of
their running game. No runner on the team has eclipsed 75 yards
on the ground in a game this season and as a unit they’ve
only scored one rushing touchdown. Running back Ryan Mathews is
averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and prior to his four catch
performance a week ago against the Cowboys, hadn’t been
used much in the passing game either. The back to own, at least
in PPR formats, has been former New England Patriot Danny Woodhead.
Woodhead has just 90 yards rushing on the season, but has shined
in a Darren Sproles-like role for the Chargers, catching 22 of
the 27 passes intended for him for 162 yards and two scores on
the year. Woodhead had his best game of the season in Week 4 when
he scorched the Cowboys to the tune of 86 total yards on just
10 touches and two touchdowns. While he hasn’t been particularly
impressive in non-PPR formats, Woodhead has become a very interesting
option in PPR formats. Those who are hurting at running back or
looking for a FLEX play this weekend should look to Woodhead to
get them at or near 10 fantasy points in PPR formats. If you are
in a standard-scoring league, however, Woodhead has not yet shown
that he is going to put up the kind of yardage or touchdown numbers
to become a viable every week option.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 315 pass yds, 2 TD
Ryan Mathews: 50 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Danny Woodhead: 20 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Eddie Royal: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Vincent Brown: 50 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: After missing last week’s game due
to precautionary measures from a concussion, second-year quarterback
Terrelle Pryor is expected to make his return to the lineup in
Week 5. Pryor has been by far the team’s most productive
offensive weapon this season and has reached double-digit fantasy
points in each game he’s played in. Even after missing a
game, Pryor is still second in the league with 198 yards rushing
from the quarterback position and he had the best passing day
of his career the last time he was on the field, throwing for
281 yards and a score against the Broncos. He’s not likely
going to blow anyone away with his accuracy or passing statistics
as a whole, but Pryor’s ability to run the ball should not
be overlooked. It may be hard for some to believe, but when healthy,
Pryor is a borderline top-12 fantasy option.
That will be put to the test this week when he goes up against
a San Diego Chargers pass defense that has surrendered more fantasy
points to opposing quarterbacks than any team this season. San
Diego has allowed eight passing touchdowns while forcing only
one interception and opposing quarterbacks are averaging nearly
330 passing yards per game against them. While we don’t
expect Pryor to approach that number, he certainly could do some
damage in the running game. San Diego allowed a rushing touchdown
to both Mike Vick and Jake Locker earlier this season, so Pryor
could certainly exploit them for a rushing score of his own. Denarius
Moore remains about the only receiver worth any fantasy consideration
at the moment, but even he is a low-end WR3 option at the moment
until we see some more consistency from him.
Running Game Thoughts: With running back Darren McFadden nursing
a hamstring injury, the Oakland running back situation looks very
shaky heading into Sunday. Although he had hit double-digit fantasy
point totals in each of his first three games, wise fantasy owners
saw the writing on the wall when he had rushed for just 57 yards
combined in two of those contests. McFadden has always been a
boom-or-bust option, but when he’s not healthy, it’s
not often that he ends up on the boom side of things. He hasn’t
practiced all week as of Thursday and although the coaching staff
has said that he doesn’t have to practice on Friday to play
on Sunday, it would be surprising to see the Raiders give him
a full workload if he doesn’t practice. If he doesn’t
play, it will likely be backup Rashad Jennings that gets the bulk
of the touches. Jennings played well in relief of McFadden a week
ago, rushing for 45 yards and catching eight passes for 71 yards.
He may not be the physical specimen that McFadden is, but Jennings
is a smart player who can find holes in defenses and catch passes
out of the backfield. As odd as it might sound, Jennings might
be the better fantasy option this week, even if McFadden plays.
We just don’t know how involved “Run DMC” will
be in the offense and it would be disastrous if the team tried
to push him on an injured hamstring, only to have the injury worsen
in the process.
Projections:
Terrelle Pryor: 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 60 rush yds, 1 TD
Rashad Jennings: 55 rush yds, 50 rec yds
Darren McFadden: 30 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Denarius Moore: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Rod Streater: 50 rec yds
Prediction: Chargers 21, Raiders
17 ^ Top
Ravens at Dolphins
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Two touchdowns
and 347 yards passing against the Bills sounds like a pretty good
day for QB Joe Flacco, at least until you factor in a career worst
five interceptions, the last of which came in the final minute
as the Ravens were driving for a game tying FG or the go ahead
touchdown. On top of that consider giving up four sacks and completing
only 50% of his passes and pretty soon the negatives start to
significantly outweigh the positives. Passing game woes weren’t
all the fault of Flacco though as the offensive line was overwhelmed
for the majority of the game, displaying rather conclusively that
the unit has major concerns and that the miscues all season long
were the norm and not the exception. To remedy this situation
Baltimore traded with Jacksonville for offensive tackle Eugene
Monroe at the cost of multiple late-round draft picks. The hope
is that he will help the team improve on their 13th overall passing
offense, particularly in the area of pressures and sacks, in the
latter of which they are ranked tenth worst in the league.
The contest against Miami will start to answer a number of questions
that emerged last week, particularly in the area of the Dolphins
pass defense and their ability to pressure the QB. Prior to week
four they were statistically one of the better defenses in the
NFL but Monday night against New Orleans they were torn apart
by Drew Brees and his diverse collection of pass catchers. Miami
surrendered nearly 400 yards and four TDs on 77% passing, the
majority of which came against a standard four-man rush. Previously
they were third best in the league (yards per attempt) when not
sending extra pressure. If Flacco has another off day this Sunday
then the Dolphins will feast on him, though if they struggle again
Flacco may put together a great performance and bounce back from
the disappointing loss to Buffalo. Though the offensive line is
expected to be better for the remainder of the season it will
likely be at least a game or two until Monroe is able to drastically
improve pass protection but on the bright side it’s hard
to imagine him making things any worse than they already are.
Running Game Thoughts: A bad running
game come from offensive line issues and those also contribute
to QB struggles, then those struggles make things harder on the
running game, and as a team loses the ability to run the offensive
line gets overrun with pass rushers which make the quarterback
play exceptionally poorly. It’s painfully cyclical but in
the case of Baltimore the offensive futility can likely be attributed
to the play of the O-line. The Ravens backfield features the best
fullback in the league (possibly ever), a dynamic superstar runner,
and one of the best backups a team could hope for, though as a
group they’re averaging only 2.6 yards per carry which is
next to last in that category. Running lanes aren’t being
created, holes that might have been there disappear before the
ball carrier can arrive, and the number of times plays are disrupted
at or behind the line of scrimmage is nearly depressing. Baltimore
for the first time in a long time is all but incapable of running
the ball with any authority and the only potential saving grace
is the acquisition of Monroe from Jacksonville. While his impact
on the passing game will be seen quickly it may take longer for
him to pick up the Ravens running playbook, but thankfully success
on the offensive line often comes down to beating the man in front
of you in a one on one battle, and in that area he should excel.
The run defense they’ll be facing is a bit of a contradiction
in itself, as the Dolphins are top ten in terms of yards allowed
but are bottom ten is yards per attempt; generally they don’t
face many rushes (tied for ninth lowest attempts against) but
when they do they give up 4.2 yards per attempt. This may be one
of the most ideal defenses for Baltimore to face, as they want
to get back to a high volume of rushes and they’ve been
struggling mightily in rushing average. Of course based on the
Ravens ability to run the ball up to this point in the season
it’s wholly possible for them to be forced to abandon the
rush after being unable to make significant gains on the ground.
Until the game is played it looks like things really could go
either way. For Baltimore it is of utmost importance that they
can establish a rushing attack so that Flacco can serve as more
of a game manager than having the fate of the team rest on his
shoulders; they are best when the offense is balanced and establishing
the run is critical in that respect.
Projections:
Joe
Flacco: 270 pass yds, 2 TDs
Ray
Rice: 60 rush yds, 1 TD / 20 rec yds
Torrey
Smith: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: By the numbers
Miami is roughly average, perhaps a bit below average, in most
statistical passing categories with one glaring exception. They’ve
given up the most sacks in the league and QB Ryan Tannehill has
taken a beating in most of the games this season. Defenses have
been able to effectively limit the deep ball, principally through
scheming against WR Mike Wallace, and that in combination with
problems along the offensive line have led to a barrage of linemen
and linebackers finding their way into the backfield, collapsing
the pocket, and generally getting the best of the quarterback.
Lacking a true #2 WR and losing their prime pass catching TE to
a preseason injury have make the Dolphins one of the easiest passing
offenses to defend against, but the emergence of TE Charles Clay
and the presence of a quality running game have allowed Miami
to post a 3-1 start as Tannehill is able to execute well enough
through the air. His biggest issue may actually come on the ground,
where defensive pressure and a porous O-line have helped lead
to three lost fumbles (six total) already this season. Those three
combined with five interceptions give him a TD-turnover ratio
of 5-8; the passing attack isn’t prolific enough to be able
to afford that kind of production.
After giving up 445 passing yards and seven touchdowns in the
opening game Baltimore has since averaged 170 yards against, given
up only one passing TD, forced three interceptions, and recorded
ten sacks. Apparently all they need to be successful is to not
face Peyton Manning. Unfortunately for Miami Tannehill is no Manning
so the outlook for Sunday seems pretty bleak. Even factoring in
the week one defensive charade the Ravens come in about the middle
of the passing rankings, suggesting that they’ve been able
to do in three games what it has taken most teams four to do.
Compared to last season this Baltimore defense has fewer big name
playmakers but what they do have is a number of opportunistic
defenders who are primed to pounce on any mistake made by the
opposing quarterback. If Tannehill can protect the ball Miami
will have a chance to take advantage of the Ravens defense as
they try to load up against the run, but if the quarterback makes
poor decisions or loses the ball in the pocket it’ll be
hard to mount a comeback through the air and that may spell defeat
for the Dolphins.
Running Game Thoughts: Success in
this area will go a long way to determining the outcome of the
game. With the exception of the opening game against Cleveland
the Dolphins have been able to run the ball fairly well, with
RB Lamar Miller gaining about 60 yards on the ground and usually
scoring a touchdown and Tannehill generally contributing some
production through scrambles that pick up yardage and extend drives.
In recent weeks Miller has wrestled more and more touches away
from Daniel Thomas and has essentially become the primary ball
carrier for the team. His explosiveness and agility gave him far
better upside to begin with and the results from that potential
have finally started to show themselves. If Miami were to commit
to running the ball and making Miller the primary focus of their
offense that would take much of the pressure off Tannehill and
likely lead to better ball security and time of possession.
If the running game is successful this weekend Miami will have
to send a bouquet of flowers or possibly a gift basket to the
Buffalo Bills. After giving up only 224 combined rushing yards
in their first three games the Ravens were gouged for 203 yards
on the ground in week four by two dynamic, but slightly hobbled,
Bills runners and their mobile quarterback. The Dolphins may be
able to replicate that game plan, using either a Miller-Thomas-Tannehill
combo or just focusing on one RB and still utilizing the QB were
they can. The primary hitch in this plan of course is the offensive
line who seemingly oscillates between being very good and absolutely
terrible. The center of the line is clearly its strength with
the tackle positions being the area of weakness, but even with
defenses knowing that Miller has been decently successful on the
ground. If the week four Baltimore rushing defense shows up again
in week five he could run wild.
Projections:
Ryan
Tannehill: 210 pass yds, 1 TDs, 1 INT / 40 rush yds
Lamar
Miller: 80 rush yds, 1 TD
Mike
Wallace: 70 rec yds
Charles
Clay: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Dolphins 20, Ravens
17 ^ Top
Eagles at Giants
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: If coupled
with a Dallas loss (vs Denver) on Sunday a Philadelphia victory
will set them tied atop the NFC East at 2-3, meaning that every
aspect of this rivalry game means even more than it already should.
Aside from a promising season opener the Eagles have been only
slightly better than terribly disappointing. Through four games
the offense has been more hype than substance and the highly anticipated
fast break offense has done more sitting on the bench than marching
up the field. The passing game ranks in the top third of the league
in yards per game but is one of the worst teams when it comes
to giving up sacks. QB Michael Vick has only thrown two interceptions
but his six touchdowns are somewhat of a disappointment considering
the expectations. After 16 catches, two touchdowns, and nearly
300 yards in the first two weeks speedy WR DeSean Jackson has
been held to five catches, no TDs, and less than 100 yards in
the two most recent outings. Vick has seen his completion percentage
drop from the low 60s to the low 50s, and a 4-0 TD-INT ratio add
two picks and only one score to the total over those same two-week
spans.
Getting back on track through the air will be a priority against
a Giants secondary, which ranks in the bottom half and has recorded
only four sacks so far this season. The once vaunted pass rush
has taken significant steps backward, creating a potential stalemate
for Philadelphia’s equally poor offensive line. Vick has
been sacked 14 times and is constantly under pressure from opposing
defenses, but since the Giants have a hard time getting to the
quarterback it stands to reason that opportunities should be much
more plentiful for the Eagles. Despite the recent downturn Jackson
should expect to see plenty of balls thrown his way as he runs
through and behind the secondary of New York that may finally
be at full strength after suffering through numerous injuries
already in this young season. The Giants have holes throughout
the back seven and with Jackson’s speed he only needs a
few opportunities to make a huge impact on the game.
Running Game Thoughts: Eagles RB
LeSean McCoy leads the league in rushing yards and is the primary
reason why his team is also the most prolific rushing team in
terms of yards per game. Vick also contributes as a runner on
improvised plays and scrambles, but that’s just icing on
the McCoy cake. Philadelphia averages nearly 200 yards per game
on the ground, which is almost 50 yards more than the next best
team. As could be expected, yards per carry is also the best in
the league at 6.2 whereas the next best is 5.3 and only one other
team has an average higher than 4.9. Considering the problems
the O-line has as a unit these numbers are astonishing, but time
and again McCoy has proven capable of turning nothing into something,
something into a running lane, and running lanes into touchdowns,
all while juking, shaking, and spinning his way away from defenders
and earning every last bit of his “Shady” nickname.
In games where he has been held in check the Eagles have struggled
so him being set for a big game in week five is great news for
the team.
As bad as the Giants have been against the pass they’ve
possibly been worse against the run, giving up over 120 rushing
yards per game and ranking near the bottom of the league because
of it. To be fair New York has faced the second most rushing attempts
of any team but if Philadelphia is able to execute as they hope
it’s quite possible that the Giants will jump up in those
attempts rankings. This strategy for the Eagles will work because
the defensive line currently packs no punch, the linebackers are
one of the weakest corps in the NFL, and the DBs will be too busy
chasing WRs through the secondary to stop the run until McCoy
is already at the next level and a missed tackle away from taking
it to the house. This game featuring two terrible defenses will
be won at the line of scrimmage, so if the Eagles can effectively
neutralize whatever the Giants are able to do that will put the
game in their hands as McCoy puts the game on his own shoulders.
Projections:
Michael
Vick: 320 yards passing, 3 TDs / 40 rush yds, 1 TD
LeSean
McCoy: 180 rush yds, 2 TDs / 60 rec yds, 1 TD
DeSean
Jackson: 130 rec yds, 1 TD
Brent
Celek: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: New York
hasn’t started a season 0-5 since replacement players were
used a quarter century ago, though in a sense with the injuries
to the Giants offensive line some of those guys protecting QB
Eli Manning may actually be replacement players. Two of the starting
five linemen have yet to play this season and a third has been
limited in both his availability and effectiveness, leaving pass
protection in a state of shambles; they’ve given up 14 sacks
through four games, tied for fifth worst in the league. The lack
of protection has helped contribute to a league worst ten interceptions
(only three other teams have more than six) which is two more
than the next team, though even with good protection Manning has
thrown several that were all on him. With the exception of the
Carolina game where everyone was utterly abysmal, the lone bright
spot to the Giants season has been WR Victor Cruz, who has recorded
three games of over 118 yards and ranks in the top five of most
statistical categories for receivers. He’s the primary target
in the offense and his speed and versatility make him incredibly
difficult to cover, something that New York will certainly try
to exploit against Philadelphia on Sunday.
Because of the terrible performance of the offensive line Eagles
pass rushers may have opportunities to get to Manning on Sunday.
They’re roughly in the middle of the pack when it comes
to sacks but playing against New York may give them a chance to
improve on this ranking. As a unit the Philadelphia front seven
hasn’t been particularly terrifying but there are a number
of standout individuals that must be accounted for if the offensive
line is going to protect their quarterback. The secondary may
be just as bad as, if not worse than, that of New York, and by
the numbers they’re second worst in the league, only four
yards out of last place. The number of passing touchdowns is only
one behind the Giants whom are tied for worst in the league at
ten. If Manning is given time in the pocket he should be able
to pick apart the Eagles secondary just as other teams have, but
it will all depend on the O-line performing effectively.
Running Game Thoughts: Only four
teams average fewer than 60 rush yards per game. Only two teams
have lost more than two fumbles from rushing plays. Only nine
teams have scored one or fewer rushing touchdowns. Only five teams
have a yards per carry average of 3.3 or worse. The Giants are
the tragic culmination of all of these, the center spot of the
“how bad is your running game” four-way Venn diagram.
As expected most of this falls back on the offensive line, but
between being unable to address that immediately through personnel
changes and likely being unable to effectively change blocking
schemes mid-season, optimism is running low in New York. The team
has released backup RB Da’Rel Scott, seemingly in favor
of the embattled David Wilson, who has seen his carries and yards
increase over the past three weeks. These observations all begin
to suggest that the Giants have decided to trust him again after
a terrible two-fumble outing in the opening game; if he can manage
to hold onto the football the running game may start to improve.
Facing off against Philadelphia ought to help the running game
tremendously as they average over 120 yards against on the ground
and 4.1 yards per carry, both ranking in the bottom half of the
league. Their defensive rushing numbers would likely be worse
if it weren’t for the sorry state of their passing defense;
since teams are able to throw the ball effectively against the
Eagles they often don’t concentrate on trying to beat them
on the ground. That being said the Broncos obliterated them through
the air and still managed to gain over 140 rushing yards against
them last week. While Eli don’t have the weapons around
him that big brother Peyton does the Giants still have a formidable
passing attack which should help to give better opportunities
to Wilson whenever he carries the ball. If fumbles can continue
to be a thing of the past and the O-line can get a moderate push
against the front seven New York stands to turn in their best
rushing performance of the season against one of the league’s
worst rushing defenses.
Projections:
Eli
Manning: 280 yards passing, 3 TDs
David
Wilson: 80 rush yds / 20 rec yds
Victor
Cruz: 140 rec yds, 2 TDs
Prediction: Eagles 35, Giants 31
^ Top
Broncos at Cowboys
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: No matter
how you cut it Peyton Manning is one of the best quarterbacks
ever and without a doubt the top of the league so far in 2013.
Two of his receivers are in the top six of WR statistical categories,
his previously unheard of tight end is off to a fantastic start,
and the odd man out is Eric Decker who has led the team in receiving
yards twice already through four games. The offensive line, which
suffered through injuries in the preseason and then lost LT Ryan
Clady in week three performed well against the Eagles in giving
up only one sack. The game was so out of hand that Manning didn’t
play in the fourth quarter after throwing four touchdowns and
327 yards on 28-34 passing through only 45 minutes of game time.
The offense is firing on all cylinders under the direction of
Manning and they show no signs of slowing down from this record
pace.
After thoroughly dismantling the Eagles secondary Manning and
company get to face another weak NFC East defense in consecutive
weeks; Dallas is arguably the best of the division at this point
but that certainly isn’t saying much. By the numbers they’re
one of the worst in yards against, one of the best in sacks recorded,
and about middle of the road in interceptions. Considering that
Manning has yet to throw an interception and has led the most
prolific passing offense in the NFL it’ll come as a huge
surprise if Dallas makes any positive strides defensively. The
one potential area of concern is the pass rush, but seeing as
the Broncos have given up the second fewest sacks of any team
even the apparent strength of the Cowboys defense may be rendered
ineffective. Short of an inspired performance from Dallas or a
monumental collapse from Denver there is little evidence that
suggests Manning will be anything but spectacular for a fifth
consecutive week.
Running Game Thoughts: What makes
the running game so good for Denver is the fact that they haven’t
really needed it yet this season. Defenses recognize the nearly
impossible task that Manning presents and most of their efforts
are in stopping him and the receiving corps, thus leaving Broncos
RBs relatively free to pick up cheap yards on the ground. The
yards per carry average is right at 4.0, a number that is typically
used as a measure of success. The Denver backfield is very much
being run as a committee though more often than not Knowshon Moreno
appears to be the most effective RB in all areas of the game.
No back has carried more than 13 times in any game, and the leading
attempts getter only received one more touch than the second most
used back in all four games, representing a near perfect balance.
Whoever gets the ball runs behind an offensive line that seems
to be performing at a level higher than the sum of its parts would
suggest, but with Manning calling the shots on the field it is
quite understandable why they’re doing better than was expected
with the injuries they’ve suffered.
The best rushing defense that the Broncos have faced thus far
in the season came from Baltimore, the 16th ranked in yards allowed.
Dallas ranks in the top five, yields less than 78 yards per game,
and has yet to surrender a rushing touchdown. While this obviously
isn’t ideal for Denver it also isn’t particularly
likely to dramatically change what they’ll try to do on
Sunday. The gameplan revolves around passing the ball effectively
and allowing Manning to make adjustments on the field to exploit
whatever the defense has shown. While there have been a number
of called runs, several more have come from audibles or have resulted
from adjustments made to an existing call. Denver probably won’t
reach their rushing yards average (119.3) but they won’t
need to in order to be effective in the run game, which in itself
serves the function of being the change of pace or gives Manning
a break from throwing so many passes.
Projections:
Peyton
Manning: 380 pass yds, 4 TDs
Knowshon
Moreno: 60 rush yds / 30 rec yds
Demaryius
Thomas: 130 rec yds, 1 TD
Wes
Welker: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: For not putting
up insane amounts of yards the Cowboys have one of the most efficient
aerial attacks in the game with QB Tony Romo completing over 72%
of his passes, third best in the league and over four percentage
points better than the next best. His big threat target is WR
Dez Bryant who has been brilliant in two games this season and
kept relatively quiet in the other two, in the two big games he’s
made 15 catches for 262 yards and three touchdowns compared to
only eight catches, 60 yards, and one touchdown the other contests.
That inconsistency reflects both his big play ability and the
importance that defenses place on covering him, sometimes dedicating
two or even three defenders to him to try to force Romo to throw
elsewhere. Many of those other attempts have found their way to
TE Jason Witten who always sees passes come him way, but unlike
previous season he has so far been unable to turn those receptions
into huge chunks of yards. Because of the points that Denver is
expected to put up Dallas will likely be forced to throw frequently
and if Romo can continue to protect the ball (only one interception
this season) he will be called upon to try to answer Manning score
for score. He has the skill to make it interesting, or even to
succeed.
Only five teams give up more yards per game through the air than
Dallas does; one of them is Denver. To an extent this could be
considered a self-inflicted wound, because once teams get down
by more than one score they feel compelled to throw to try to
keep the game, and quite frequently Manning leads the Broncos
to double digit victories. As a unit they’re better than
average in sacks recorded and interceptions forced, again because
the defense is able to force opponents into passing situations
and predictable play calling. The defense is built to play from
ahead and to protect leads, so if Dallas is able to keep the game
close and force the Broncos into balanced sets they may be able
to take advantage of them. Unfortunately this may depend on Manning
being more pedestrian than extraordinary, which to this point
in the season has been anything common. The Cowboys better than
average sacks allowed total could match up well with the Broncos
rush defense, and if they’re able to neutralize that pressure
Romo will have a chance to lead his team to a huge victory in
from of the home crowd.
Running Game Thoughts: Performances
from RB DeMarco Murray have been all over the place this season;
in one game he gained only 25 yards, the week before that he rushed
for 175 yards and a touchdown, and most recently he turned in
a fairly average performance again without scoring. In his two
most productive games the Cowboys have won. In those he also received
20 or more carries. While four inconsistent games can only show
so much what is certain is that when Murray carries the ball more
he tends to run better and the team almost always does better
because of that. As demonstrated in week two he is a dynamic talent
capable of making the big play and overwhelming the defense. Much
of his success, or its lack thereof, depends on the offensive
line which is approximately mediocre but shows flashes of far
more than that from time to time. Given the opportunity Murray
can turn a small hole into a wide open running lane, but that
will first and foremost have to come from the O-line still searching
for consistency and reliability.
Interestingly, the two best games for Murray have come against
NFC opponents and the bad ones were both against teams from the
AFC West. The best of the west rolls into town Sunday and Dallas
will be hard pressed to make this this first game in which they’ve
excelled in running the ball against that division. Add on top
of that the likelihood that Denver will score many many points
and the running game may have to be eliminated all together if
things don’t go well from the very beginning. The Broncos
lead the league in yards against per game with 74. They have allowed
four rushing TDs this season and not recorded any fumbles from
rushing plays, so there’s at least a little reason for the
Cowboys to be optimistic about their running game. In the perfect
situation the game will stay close and Murray will be used to
try to counter the passing attack of Denver and also effectively
keep the defense balanced rather than teeing off against the pass.
Dallas has the pieces to make this happen but the most likely
scenario is Manning pulls away and the Cowboys rushing attach
shrivels as the team tries to mount a comeback of Texas-sized
proportions.
Projections:
Tony
Romo: 260 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
DeMarco
Murray: 50 rush yds, 1 TD / 30 rec yds
Dez
Bryant: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Broncos 45, Cowboys
27 ^ Top
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