Browns
at Bengals - (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer
is doing just enough to keep Johnny Football at bay and should
hold onto the job as long as the Browns keep winning. The Browns
are 5-3, despite Hoyer’s limitations. Not only does Hoyer
lack velocity on his throws, but he isn’t terribly accurate
either, completing only 58 percent of his passes on the season.
In his defense he does attack deep often and is averaging a more
than respectable eight yards per pass attempt. He’s also
a fiery leader and has been facing soft defenses. The team will
stick with him as long as they remain in contention for a playoff
spot. Until Josh Gordon’s suspension ends it’s not
completely fair to judge Hoyer, though, as there just isn’t
all that much for him to work with especially with tight end Jordan
Cameron now going through concussion protocols after already missing
time with other various ailments. Miles Austin has been a steady
veteran, but after years of hamstring strains, he lacks the explosiveness
that made him a threat in the past After that the team is loaded
with small quick options like Andrew Hawkins, Travis Benjamin
and rookie Taylor Gabriel, who all have big play capabilities
but lack the size to truly dominate games on their own. On the
road against an active Bengals defense, Cleveland could have some
issues consistently moving the ball through the air.
The Bengals were looking like one the league’s most fearsome
defenses during their 3-0 start to the season, were then torched
by Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck, but came back the last
two weeks to shut down lesser quarterbacks Joe Flacco and Blake
Bortles. Which group do you think Hoyer fits in better with? On
the season they are now allowing 255 passing yards per game with
10 touchdowns allowed against 10 interceptions.
Running Game Thoughts: Following last week’s game head coach
Mike Pettine praised rookie running back Terrance West and stated
that he “earned those touches [over veteran Ben Tate].”
Last week West out-touched Tate 16-14. During the course of the
season, it’s been very difficult to gauge this backfield
as West has been everywhere from a healthy scratch behind fellow
rookie Isaiah Crowell to the starting running back. West has excelled
as a pass protector in recent weeks and is a solid grinder with
decent power and balance running in traffic. Based on recent comments
from the coaching staff, he looks like the favorite in the rotation
for the time being.
The Bengals are ahead of only Green Bay and Cleveland when it
comes to stopping the run, allowing 139.6 rushing yards per game
while yielding nine rushing touchdowns. His should play into the
Browns hands, who to look to establish the run. Since center Alex
Mack has gone down, however, the Browns running game has suffered.
Projections:
Brian Hoyer: 235 pass yds 1 TD, 1 INT
Ben Tate: 35 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Terrance West: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
Miles Austin: 45 rec yds
Andrew Hawkins: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Jim Dray: 35 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: A.J. Green
returned to the lineup last week, and while the passing game still
struggled more than expected against the Jaguars, he did manage
to catch one of Andy Dalton’s two touchdown passes. Green
only played on less than 60 percent of the team’s snaps
and should see an increase as his toe heals more and he returns
to game shape. Dalton’s success has long been dependant
on Green’s athletic ability, but Mohamed Sanu stepped up
while Green was out and has become an important part of the passing
attack. Sanu has now recorded 628 yards and four touchdowns on
the season. Tyler Eifert isn’t expected back until Week
11, but will round out what is shaping into a decent collection
of skill position players when he does.
The Browns have only been a league average pass defense when many
expected much more from this unit. The team is allowing 252.1
passing yards per game with 12 touchdowns allowed through eight
games.
Running Game Thoughts: Giovani Bernard suffered a hip injury that
forced him out of Week 8’s game in the fourth quarter and
kept him out of last week’s game as well. The Bengals did
not miss him much as rookie Jeremy Hill ran for 154 yards and
two touchdowns as the bellcow back. Hill has shown good power
and inside running ability and benefited from an increase in carries.
He actually got off to a slow start in the game but looked strong
after briefly exiting with a knee injury and took over the contest
against Jacksonville. If Bernard is unable to go on the short
week, and the prevailing thought seems to be that he will, Hill
should strive once again against the Brown’s second worst
run defense that has given up 140 yards per game on the season.
Projections:
Andy Dalton: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 5 rush yds
Jeremy Hill: 115 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Cedric Peerman: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
A.J. Green: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed Sanu: 60 rec yds
Jermaine Gresham: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Bengals 27, Browns 20 ^ Top
Cowboys at Jaguars
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: The biggest
question for Dallas this week is, of course, the health of Tony
Romo. He’s received treatment on his injured back and been
limited in practice, but whether or not he plays will likely stay
unknown until Sunday. Brandon Weeden would take his place, but
regardless of who lines up under center for the Cowboys, fantasy
owners should still count on using the team’s pass-catchers
in their lineups this week. Dez Bryant has just five receptions
over his past two games, but two of those went for TDs, and Jason
Witten is finally heating up, with his two highest receiving yard
totals taking place in the last two weeks. Against the Jaguars,
both are fantasy-worthy.
After being throttled through the air early in the season, Jacksonville
has become respectable defending the pass. They’re still
25th in both pass defense and yards per pass attempt allowed while
ranking tied for 20th in passing scores permitted, but have given
up just four TD throws over their last five games. The Jaguars
are 17th in FPTs/G allowed to quarterbacks and are surrendering
the 12th-most FPTs/G to both wide receivers and tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: The 79 rushing
yards amassed last week by DeMarco Murray marked his lowest output
of the season, and the first time he failed to reach 100 yards.
Nonetheless, he remains the highest-scoring fantasy running back,
and Jacksonville will provide him an solid opportunity to once
again top the century mark.
The Jaguars weren’t having a great season defending the
run by any means, but up until last week, they hadn’t allowed
a 100-yard rusher and were seemingly improving. But last Sunday,
Cincinnati’s Jeremy Hill exploded for 154 yards and two
scores against Jacksonville, and more of the same seems in store
this week. For the year, the Jags are 24th in run defense, 19th
in YPC allowed, and tied for 17th in rushing scores given up.
They’ve surrendered the 12th-most FPTs/G in the league to
running backs, and it seems likely they won’t be staying
at that position after facing Murray.
Projections:
Tony
Romo: 235 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
DeMarco
Murray: 120 rush yds, 2 TD, 15 rec yds
Dez
Bryant: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Terrance
Williams: 45 rec yds
Cole
Beasley: 30 rec yds
Jason
Witten: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: The pair
of TDs thrown last week by Blake Bortles in their loss to the
Bengals marked just the second time the rookie threw for more
than one score in a game. Both of his scores went to Allen Hurns,
one of the numerous mediocre receiving options for Jacksonville.
This team has no pass-catching weapons capable of starting for
fantasy owners on anything resembling a regular basis, and that
doesn’t chance this week against Dallas.
On three occasions this season the Cowboys have allowed a quarterback
to toss three TD passes, but they’ve also played three games
in which they didn’t give up a single scoring pass. They
have been inconsistent when defending the pass, and their stats
reflect that. Dallas is 15th in the NFL in pass defense, tied
for 15th in TD throws allowed and tied for 9th in interceptions,
but just four teams have fewer sacks. The team’s inconsistency
translates for fantasy owners as well, because while the Cowboys
have allowed the 10th-fewest FPTs/G to quarterbacks and the 6th-fewest
FPTs/G to wide receivers, only the Bears and Jets are permitting
more FPTs/G to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: The Jaguars
started the season with Toby Gerhart as their starting running
back, but that didn’t work out too well. A lack of production
and a Gerhart injury led to the team giving Denard Robinson a
shot, and fantasy owners couldn’t be more grateful. Robinson
has run for 329 yards and a pair of scores over his last three
games and is creeping up the fantasy scoreboard. Fantasy owners
should continue to run with the hot hand, and while the Cowboys
aren’t an easy match-up, Robinson should be able to do enough
to warrant a spot as a RB2.
Dallas is tied for 16th in run defense so far this season, while
ranking tied for 17th in rushing TDs given up and 27th in YPC
allowed. The Cowboys have also allowed the 7th-fewest receiving
yards in the league to running backs, and the 12th-fewest FPTs/G.
It should be noted that they seem to be trending downward in this
area though, because three different running backs have picked
up 14 or more fantasy points against Dallas in their last four
games.
Projections:
Blake
Bortles: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 20 rush yds
Denard
Robinson: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Toby
Gerhart: 20 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Cecil
Shorts: 60 rec yds
Allen
Hurns: 35 rec yds
Allen
Robinson: 25 rec yds
Clay
Harbor: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Cowboys 28, Jaguars
17 ^ Top
49ers at Saints
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Colin Kaepernick
is a unique talent with a huge arm and excellent speed, but he’s
like every other quarterback in one regard – without time
to throw the football, none of that matters. Kaepernick was sacked
eight times by the Rams last week and has been sacked 14 times
in his last two contests. He also has just two games with at least
250 passing yards this season, and though he’s rushed for
274 yards, he’s failed to find the end zone, which all adds
up to a quarterback just inside the top-15 in fantasy scoring.
The 49ers’ top pass-catchers are also underperforming, with
Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis doing little to justify their
likely lofty draft positions. Only Anquan Boldin has performed
for fantasy owners, and he should remain in fantasy lineups this
week against a Saints team vulnerable to allowing yards to wide
receivers.
The New Orleans pass defense had their best game of the season
last week, holding Cam Newton to 151 yards on 10-of-28 passing
with no TDs and an interception. Yet that accomplishment is not
representative of the team’s season-long performance, as
they rank 27th in pass defense and 28th in yards per pass attempt
allowed. And while the Saints are tied for the 4th-fewest TD throws
surrendered, the amount of yards they’re giving up is translating
to fantasy success for their opponents. Well, opponents who don’t
play TE, anyway, as New Orleans is tied with Philly for least
FPTs/G allowed to players at that position. On the other side,
the Saints have allowed the 9th-most FPTs/G to quarterbacks and
the 6th-most FPTs/G to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore
remains a solid NFL running back, but his fantasy prospects are
trending downward. The veteran does have a pair of games with
100+ rushing yards this season, but he’s no longer much
of a receiving threat and – more importantly – has
only a single rushing score this season. Gore will eventually
find the end zone again, and this week presents as good an opportunity
as any versus a New Orleans team that is among the least effective
in the league at stopping runners from scoring.
The Saints are 10th in the NFL in run defense and are 14th in
YPC allowed, but are tied for 22nd in rushing scores yielded and
have given up the 6th-most receiving yards in the league to running
backs. The TDs and receiving yards mask how well New Orleans has
done against opposing backs trying to run the ball, because only
one player (DeMarco Murray in Week 4) has gained at least 70 yards
against them. Still, everything adds up, so instead of a team
that stops running backs from scoring fantasy points, the Saints
are a team that is firmly in the middle – 17th – in
FPTs/G allowed to running backs.
Projections:
Colin
Kaepernick: 215 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 35 rush yds
Frank
Gore: 65 rush yds, 1 TD
Carlos
Hyde: 20 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Anquan
Boldin: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael
Crabtree: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve
Johnson: 30 rec yds
Vernon
Davis: 20 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees
threw for 297 yards last week against Carolina, and that was actually
his third-lowest total of the season. So needless to say, passing
yards aren’t an issue. But he also had only one TD pass,
and the 15 he has this season puts him in a tie for 10th in scoring
throws, which is unusual for him. Still, he remains a QB1 in every
way. The more difficult thing for fantasy owners to figure out
is who he’s throwing to. Jimmy Graham is a given, of course,
and a must-start, but as for Marques Colston, Kenny Stills, and
Brandin Cooks, well, it’s impossible on a week-to-week basis
to figure out which one will be the most productive, and it’s
hard to consider any of them more than a WR3 this week against
San Francisco.
The 49ers may be scuffling right now, but it’s hard to blame
their play against the pass. They’re tied for 15th in passing
scores yielded, but are third in pass defense and yards per pass
attempt allowed. The memory of Peyton Manning throwing for 300+
yards and four TDs against them two weeks ago may stick out in
people’s minds, but that game is really not indicative of
the team’s play on the season. San Francisco has held opposing
quarterbacks to fewer than 200 passing yards in four of their
seven other contests this year while allowing multiple scoring
throws in just two other games. And while the 49ers are 13th in
FPTs/G surrendered to wide receivers, they’re tied for 9th-fewest
FPTs/G given up to tight ends and are tied with Miami for 4th-fewest
FPTs/G allowed to quarterbacks.
Running Game Thoughts: The Saints
are highly banged-up in the backfield, with each of their main
running backs suffering from some type of malady that has caused
them to miss all or at least part of practice this week. However,
the best bet remains Mark Ingram taking the majority of carries,
like he did last week against the Panthers when he ran the ball
30 times for 100 yards and a pair of scores. Consider him a RB2
this week due to his tough match-up with the 49ers.
San Francisco remains very good against the run, ranking 5th in
the league in run defense and in the top-10 in both rushing scores
permitted and YPC allowed. They’ve allowed just a single
running back to break 80 yards against them (DeMarco Murray in
Week 1), have given up the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to running
backs, and as such have surrendered the 5th-fewest FPTs/G in the
league to players at the position.
Projections:
Drew
Brees: 270 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Mark
Ingram: 55 rush yds, 1 TD
Travaris
Cadet: 10 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Marques
Colston: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Kenny
Stills: 55 rec yds
Brandin
Cooks: 45 rec yds
Jimmy
Graham: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Saints 27, 49ers 21
^ Top
Falcons at Buccaneers
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Very little
has gone right for the Falcons this season, and that includes
less than stellar performances in the team’s passing game.
Matt Ryan hasn’t been bad, but has only five TDs in his
last four games and has thrown for less than 230 yards in each
of his last two contests. Roddy White has also been just okay,
with only a single 100-yard game and three scores on the year.
On the other hand, Julio Jones has kept up his end of the bargain,
and despite some average performances of late, is 14th in fantasy
scoring at WR. But none of that matters this week, and for one
reason – their opponent. The Bucs represent a prime match-up
that each of the aforementioned should be able to take advantage
of.
It is with confidence that one can make the argument that the
Tampa pass defense is the worst in the NFL. They are, after all,
31st in the league in pass defense, tied for 31st in passing scores
surrendered, and 28th in yards per pass attempt allowed. Last
week, Brian Hoyer had his first 300-yard game of the season against
the Bucs, and every quarterback the team has faced has passed
for at least 230 yards. The guys who catch the passes have had
similar success against Tampa, with eight different tight ends
or wide receivers having games with 80 or more yards. And while
the Bucs are 15th in FPTs/G given up to tight ends, they have
surrendered the 5th-most FPTs/G to quarterbacks, and no team has
given up more FPTs/G to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: There isn’t
much of a running game to speak of for the Falcons, which may
be a part of the team’s problem. Here’s all fantasy
owners really need to know about that – Steven Jackson had
his best outing of the season in Atlanta’s last game, rushing
for 60 yards and a score. He’s merely a flex option every
week, including this week against Tampa.
The Bucs are 18th in the NFL against run, are tied for 17th in
rushing scores surrendered, but rank 9th in YPC allowed. Tampa
hasn’t allowed any monster games by opposing running backs
this season, but has allowed five different backs to gain at least
70 yards while giving up three receiving scores to players at
the position. Those TDs make a difference, and are one reason
why the Bucs have allowed the 9th-most FPTs/G to running backs
this season.
Projections:
Matt
Ryan: 280 pass yds, 3 TD
Steven
Jackson: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Julio
Jones: 110 rec yds, 2 TD
Roddy
White: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Harry
Douglas: 40 rec yds
Levine
Toilolo: 20 rec yds
Passing Game Thoughts: Mike Glennon
wasn’t playing particularly poorly for Tampa, but he wasn’t
wowing anybody either, so the team made the decision to replace
him in the starting lineup with Josh McCown this week. The biggest
question is what that does to the team’s top wide receivers,
Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, who each had success with Glennon.
Even without Glennon, both players need to be in fantasy lineups
this week against Atlanta, whose pass defense is the opposite
of stingy.
The Falcons are tied for the 2nd-fewest TD passes allowed this
season, but don’t be fooled, fantasy owners – that’s
because teams prefer to pound the ball in the end zone against
them via the run. For the year, Atlanta is 30th in the NFL against
the pass, and dead last in both yards per pass attempt allowed
and sacks. Still, the fact that teams aren’t throwing into
the end zone against them means fantasy points allowed will be
lacking somewhere. And that somewhere is tight ends, as the Falcons
have given up the 3rd-fewest FPTs/G in the league to players at
that position, but on the other hand have allowed the 9th-most
FPTs/G to wide receivers. Atlanta has also allowed the 12th-fewest
FPTs/G to quarterbacks, but has given up multiple scoring passes
in three of their last four games after not allowing any in their
first four games.
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin
suffered an injury that kept him out last week, and he may not
play this week, either. It shouldn’t matter, because the
Bobby Rainey should get the majority of the carries this week
against Atlanta. And when a fantasy owner has a running back that
is playing the Falcons, he should start, because they allow rushing
scores by the truckload.
Though Atlanta is 12th in the NFL in YPC allowed, they are also
25th in rush defense, and no team has given up as many scores
on the ground as they have. But it’s not just on the ground
that the Falcons are having trouble against running backs, because
only the Colts have allowed more receiving yards to backs. The
ineptitude against running backs has led to plenty of fantasy
points this season, with no team allowing more FPTs/G to running
backs than Atlanta.
Projections:
Josh
McCown: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Bobby
Rainey: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Charles
Sims: 30 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Vincent
Jackson: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Mike
Evans: 70 rec yds
Louis
Murphy: 25 rec yds
Austin
Seferian-Jenkins: 15 rec yds
Prediction: Falcons 31, Buccaneers
20 ^ Top
Chiefs at Bills
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: With a new
rump -related scoring play occurring this weekend, the football
world has finally come full-circle after that strange Chiefs reception.
The previous “butt fumble” from 2012 led to a defensive
touchdown, and the beneficiary of the entertaining error was S
Steve Gregory, who was with Kansas City this off-season before
he retired. The quarterback who committed the original fumble
was now-backup Mark Sanchez, who was thrust into action last weekend
due to an injury to the starter. At the time of the butt fumble,
Sanchez played for the Jets, who is the same team victimized by
the football gods in the 2014 “scoot and score.” Beyond
this fun series of oddly-related events, there is nothing entertaining
about the Kansas City passing attack. They have the fourth-worst
yardage average, with 201 receiving yards per game, and the Chiefs
are the only team in NFL without touchdown scored by a wide receiver.
Two of the top three pass catchers on the team are tight ends,
where Travis Kelce is used roughly twice as frequently as Anthony
Fasano and has approximately twice as much to show for it. Fantasy
owners of WR Dwayne Bowe have subsisted on 57 receiving yards
per game, though he was purportedly the target of the aforementioned
butt-down touchdown before it landed in the hands of Fasano who
then rolled across the goal line. QB Alex Smith is one of the
more efficient signal callers in the league, as the Chiefs are
one of only six teams with a completion percentage above 67%,
but with the second fewest attempts in the league Kansas City
doesn’t throw enough to take advantage.
In the lead up to Week 10, Chiefs Coach Andy Reid said that Buffalo
arguably “is one of the best, if not the best, defenses
in the NFL” and even behind all of the coach-speak he is
probably on to something. Against the pass the Bills are the most
opportunistic team in the league, tied for the lead with 12 interceptions
even after their bye week. They’re tied for fourth fewest
touchdowns allowed, and are one of only two teams to have not
allowed more touchdowns than interceptions. On top of that, they
have the second most sacks in the league. No other team can boast
a similar combination of statistics, and it is that formidability
to which Reid is undoubtedly referring. The Bills are coming off
of their bye week and have had extra time to prepare for the uninspired
Kansas City passing attack, hardly a necessity considering that
Smith has only surpassed 225 passing yards on two occasions this
season. With just one interception in the past seven contests,
the Chiefs may be conservative enough to avoid the Buffalo ball
hawks, but if Smith is forced to throw then Kansas City likely
doesn’t have enough receiving weapons to be able to challenge
the Bills secondary.
Running Game Thoughts: After shaking off the early season injury
bug RB Jamaal Charles has returned to form, scoring five rushing
touchdowns in as many games, while breaking 65 yards in each contest
and surpassing 90 twice. As the primary ball carrier, Kansas City
tends to go as he does; the only game they’ve lost in the
last five was the same one in which Charles didn’t find
the endzone. The star running back has caught two or more passes
in each of the team’s wins, and the two games where he has
scored more than one touchdown are the two games where the Chiefs
recorded their most points. While Charles was hobbled, RB Knile
Davis filled in admirably, and now that both are healthy he has
provided a quality replacement whenever the starter needs a break.
In each of the last four contests Davis has recorded fewer than
50 total yards from scrimmage, and in half of those her failed
to reach double digits. His utility in fantasy is inversely related
to the availability of Charles, but he still remains perhaps the
most valuable handcuff in the game because of how heavily Kansas
City leans on their rushing attack. Even with the injuries and
losses at the beginning of the season, the Chiefs are still the
sixth best rushing team in the NFL, averaging 137 yards per game.
Their 11 ground scores are only one behind the league leaders,
and on a per-attempt basis they’re comfortably inside the
top ten.
The line of scrimmage may be more highly contested than usual
as the Bills and their top ten run defense host this Sunday contest.
The team allows an average of 92 rushing yards per game, though
in their two most recent contests they surrendered over 155 in
each. Both of those matchups resulted in a victory for Buffalo,
so while it wasn’t their best day on the ground they still
managed to win where it mattered most. Through eight games they’ve
conceded just three rushing touchdowns, tied for second best in
the league. The Bills defense gives up only 3.6 yards per rush
and no ball carrier has been able to break a run of 30 or more
yards against them. The run defense prides themselves on being
physical and making running backs fight for every single yard
they gain, so while Charles may not be able to find the edge and
run away from tacklers, the combination of him and Davis may be
enough to wear down the Bills front seven and lead to success
on the ground. For Buffalo the biggest aspect working in their
favor is the utter lack of a receiving threat, which will allow
them to stack the box and key on the run, leaving their opportunistic
secondary to defend through the air. The only home losses that
the Bills have suffered came at the hands of two talented quarterbacks,
not teams who were dedicated to the run.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 80 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Knile Davis: 35 rush yds
Dwayne Bowe: 40 rec yds
Donnie Avery: 35 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Two weeks ago QB Kyle Orton turned in one
of the stranger stat lines of the season, with four touchdowns
from only ten completions, a 59% completion rate, and taking four
sacks in a blowout victory on the road against a divisional opponent.
No receiver caught more than three passes, but rookie Sammy Watkins
(groin) played through a minor injury and still managed to gain
over 150 yards on his three receptions, including an 84-yard pass
that was celebrated too early as he was pulled down just outside
the endzone. Four different players caught a pass for a touchdown,
though for the first time all season a running back did not record
a reception whereas in most contests at least two different backs
caught passes. The Bills gained 238 yards through the air, the
lowest total for Orton since he became the starter, and in those
four games this was the first one where he didn’t throw
an interception. On the season the leading receiver has been Watkins,
but his status for Week 10 is less than certain after he left
practice early on Wednesday after aggravating his groin injury.
He is expected to play on Sunday, but it will be worth confirming
his availability before kickoff just in case Watkins is held out
of the contest. Behind him a collection of pass catchers have
contributed to the team’s success though none truly stand
out. Nine different players have caught a touchdown pass, and
other than Watkins (5) and WR Robert Woods (2) none have more
than one.
The Kansas City pass defense excels at two things, and is approximately
ho-hum everywhere else. For touchdowns allowed they’re outside
the top ten. For interceptions forced they’re in the bottom
quarter of the league. For both of yards per attempt and completion
percentage the Chiefs fall into the second quartile. However,
in the area of sacks recorded they’re third overall, and
for yardage allowed per game there is no one better. If teams
can find their way into the redzone then the Kansas City defense
isn’t likely going to keep them from scoring, but the chances
of advancing the ball downfield through the air are rather slim.
With only four interceptions from eight contests opposing quarterbacks
haven’t been forced into many bad decisions, which is odd
considering the pressure they must be under constantly due to
all of the sacks that have been recorded. Rather than a “bend
but don’t break” sort of defense, the Chiefs are more
of a “no middle ground” sort of a unit; they’re
either stopping the passing attack early and limiting yardage,
or they’re allowing scores and not creating turnovers. From
a fantasy perspective that means Orton is probably not going to
have a great day like he did last week, but also that it’s
not terribly likely that he lays an egg and tosses picks all over
the place; low risk, low reward.
Running Game Thoughts: Across the NFL there may not be a single
aspect of a game this weekend that has fewer certainties in it
than the Bills rushing attack. Already without their leading rusher
for the year, their close number two RB Fred Jackson (groin) is
recovering from injury, though with no original timetable for
his return and no substantive comment on his Sunday availability,
his status is at best up in the air. Prior to their bye week RB
Anthony “Boobie” Dixon was the starting ball carrier,
but after gaining 95 yards on 25 carries in two weeks, averaging
3.8 per attempt, Buffalo may look to Bryce Brown to try to invigorate
the running game. Brown was unexpectedly acquired this off-season,
presumably because of his abilities as a playmaker, so with injuries
and ineffectiveness reigning in the backfield this may now be
his time to shine. Regardless of who has been the ball carrier,
Buffalo has struggled in the rushing attack, averaging just 99
yards per game on the ground and recording more rushing touchdowns
than just one other team. Despite winning three of their last
four games, the Bills have gained 70 or more rushing yards only
once during that span, so they’ve demonstrated they can
win without a strong running game. With a passing attack that
is below average and a ground game which is statistically even
worse than that, if it weren’t for their incredible defense
Buffalo would certainly not be above .500.
Even when the yardage isn’t there, most starting running
backs are able to salvage their fantasy days by stealing a meaningless
touchdown somewhere along the way; against the Chiefs however
that has yet to happen. They’re the only team in the league
to have not given up a rushing touchdown, and considering Buffalo
has struggled mightily finding the endzone on the ground, it’s
hard to foresee Kansas City stumbling in Week 10 and conceding
a score to a Bills ball carrier. Though significantly ahead of
the rest of the NFL in not surrendering touchdowns, the Chiefs
are in the middle of the pack when it comes to yardage, allowing
116 yards per game. They also have the fifth worst mark for yards
per attempt, with opponents picking up 4.7 yards per carry. The
saving grace for the Kansas City run defense has been their own
rushing attack, which keeps the opponent off the field and prevents
them from picking up yards or points. With game flow being so
important and Buffalo not having a powerful offense of their own
which can dictate the tempo, the Chiefs are probably in line for
another solid showing against the run one again, which could lead
to a very low scoring afternoon for both teams.
Projections:
Kyle Orton: 220 pass yds, 1 TD
Anthony Dixon: 40 rush yds
Bryce Brown: 65 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Sammy Watkins: 70 rec yds
Robert Woods: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Scott Chandler: 35 rec yds
Prediction: Bills 13, Chiefs 10
^ Top
Steelers at Jets
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: The best
he can, QB Ben Roethlisberger has been trying to play down the
record he set recently, throwing 12 touchdown passes over the
span of back to back games. With a pair of six score contests,
Roethlisberger has vaulted himself into third place for touchdowns
thrown, and second place for both of passing yards and completion
percentage. Top pass catcher WR Antonio Brown has three scores
during those two games, is now fourth in receiving touchdowns,
and now leads the league in receiving yards. Earlier in the season
Brown also threw for a touchdown on a trick play, reviving the
days of WR Antwaan Randle El and the numerous ways the offense
looks to involve their most dynamic play makers. Other than Brown
three pass catchers have recorded more than 390 yards, including
RB Le’Veon Bell, TE Heath Miller, and WR Markus Wheaton,
who are separated by fewer than 40 receiving yards. The wildcard
of the passing attack is rookie WR Martavis Bryant, who made his
NFL debut in Week 7 and has since scored five touchdowns in three
games. His snap counts have increased in each game and he is becoming
more integral to the offense compared to Wheaton. While he hasn’t
officially supplanted the number two receiver, the rookie clearly
has the more explosive potential and is worth a flyer in most
fantasy formats. As defenses continue to shade to Brown, whoever
his counterpart is will be given more opportunities in the passing
game, and Bryant has already demonstrated his ability to take
advantage.
If the Jets were to rank all of their problems it may be difficult
to identify their greatest area of need, but considering red-hot
Pittsburgh is coming to town, it would be hard to imagine a Swiss-cheese-like
secondary wouldn’t be at the top of that list. New York
has given up an astonishing 24 passing touchdowns this season
and has recorded only one interception; no other team has less
than three picks or more than 18 scores allowed. By those metrics
alone they’re quantifiably 33% more terrible than the second
worst passing defense. The only team that the Jets have beaten,
who were led by a rookie quarterback in week one making his NFL
debut on the road, have surrendered half has many touchdowns and
have three times as many interceptions. If moral victories counted
for anything New York may be proud that their defense ranks fifth
(tied) for sacks recorded, but considering their eight game losing
streak and the turmoil surrounding the futures of the coach and
general manager, it’s arguably more impressive that the
defense even continues to show up on gameday. Unless Roethlisberger
tears something in his shoulder from throwing so many touchdowns,
or backup QB Bruce Gradkowski gets on the field because the defense
has thrown in the towel, Sunday could be a proverbial bloodbath
for the Pittsburgh passing attack as they ravage the Jets secondary.
Running Game Thoughts: Before a Week 9 clash with their arch
rival, the Steelers were a top ten rushing team; after 25 carries
yielded only 55 yards it’s no surprise that they’ve
slipped some, but they still average 119 rushing yards per game
and are better than the majority of the league. The star of the
Pittsburgh backfield is the explosive Le’Veon Bell, who
has five runs of over 20 yards already this season, including
one for 81 yards. The only thing lacking in his game has been
touchdowns, where he has only one all season and has seen the
majority of goal line carries go to RB LeGarrette Blount. Even
as the more powerful back Blount still has only two rushing touchdowns,
but that represents the remainder of all Steelers scores on the
ground. Unlike years past the Black and Yellow are a passing team
that runs well, as opposed to a running team that finds success
through the air. Through nine games Pittsburgh has passed 91 more
times than they have rushed, giving them the fourth greatest differential
in the league. Even though he hasn’t crossed the goal line
on the ground, Bell has scored twice through the air, so between
that and his 79-yard rushing average he’s been one of the
best fantasy producers this year.
In many ways the Jets compare fairly well to the team Pittsburgh
played in Week 9, and although they eventually would lose the
game, the opponent was able to limit the Steelers on the ground
and force them to be a one dimensional offense. The bad news is
Roethlisberger was up to the challenge and scorched the secondary
for his second consecutive game with six touchdown passes. In
that contest Pittsburgh had better success on the ground when
Blount was the ball carrier, as his bigger size and more physical
play were able to chip away at the formidable front seven of the
defense. Using the same strategy against New York would be advisable,
though results may not be any different. On the season Gang Green
has allowed only four rushing touchdowns and surrendered only
3.5 yards per carry, giving up just 88 yards per game. Between
the Jets dominance of the line of scrimmage and the secondary
behind them doing next to nothing to slow down pass catchers,
opponents have found success against New York by shying away from
the physicality of the running game and instead relying on their
quarterback to exploit the deficiencies present in the defense.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 360 pass yds, 5 TDs
Le’Veon
Bell: 30 rush yds, 65 rec yds, 1 TD
LeGarrette Blount: 45 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Antonio Brown: 145 rec yds, 2 TDs
Martavis Bryant: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Heath Miller: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Because of their geography the Jets are
usually close to the public eye, but their recent futility on
the field has led to even more media attention and scrutiny than
usual. Taking the brunt of the criticism, as usual, is Head Coach
Rex Ryan, but the spotlight has slowly shifted from him to General
Manager John Idzik in recent weeks. The core dysfunction of the
team stems from an ineffective offense, spearheaded by the worst
passing attack in the league. Since his arrival in 2013, then-rookie
QB Geno Smith was given the opportunity to lead the franchise,
and rumors have stirred ever since suggesting that the charismatic
coach wasn’t fond of this mandate. Fast forward to 2014,
after a sham of a quarterback competition in the off-season Smith
was declared the starter. They beat a terrible team in Week One,
and Smith appeared to regress beginning at halftime of Week 2,
eventually leading to multiple benchings and subsequently losing
his starting role to veteran QB Michael Vick. Media outlets have
suggested the faux-competition between Smith and Vick was perhaps
the precipitating event which began the downhill tumble to a 1-8
record. With Vick under center the team has been somewhat less
dreadful but has yet to secure a victory. Had he been given an
opportunity to lead the team, or at least an honest shot at fighting
to be the starter, New York may be in a different position. At
least the team may have put forth competitive efforts in more
than a third of their games this year. As it stands Vick is charged
with salvaging the season, potentially saving the jobs of his
coach and the general manager, and trying to lead an offense to
more than 184 passing yards per contest, or improving on their
current mark of 0.89 touchdowns and 1.22 interceptions per game.
In a dramatic shift from the days of the Steel Curtain, Pittsburgh
has largely been winning game due to their offense and not their
defense. In six of eight games this season they have allowed 23
or more points; in half of their games they’ve given up
27 or more. In the only games they’ve lost this year the
offense has failed to score more than 10 points, so while the
defense hasn’t been a liability it is no longer the strength
of the team. During their recent three game home stand, all victories,
Pittsburgh is averaging 41.3 points for and just 26.7 points against.
Their just-below average pass defense normally yields 252 yards
per game, but in the most recent trio of contests they’re
conceding 70 yards more than that on average, including games
of 400 and over 300 passing yards. New York doesn’t have
the firepower to reliably challenge the Steelers through the air,
but without S Troy Polamalu (knee) available Pittsburgh will be
without their most dynamic defender. Considering the Jets give
up the fourth most sacks in the league, Pittsburgh should be able
to absorb his absence by harassing the only reliable receiver
on the roster and bringing extra pressure from the front seven.
If the Steelers can find a way to contain the league’s passing
leader, keeping New York in check shouldn’t be much of a
hassle.
Running Game Thoughts: In a lopsided Week 9 New York gave their
leading running back only four carries after the first quarter.
Arguably to protect him, RB Chris Ivory received his fewest touches
of the season and his second lowest rushing total, seeing backup
RB Chris Johnson have his best game of the year with 101 total
yards from scrimmage and a 6.3 yards per carry average; neither
scored a touchdown. Ivory has been the workhorse of the backfield
for the vast majority of the year, and compared the inconsistencies
which have plagued the offense, he has nearly been a beacon of
reliability. With five touchdowns in nine games he isn’t
lighting up the fantasy world, but despite the team’s eight
game losing streak he has found the endzone or recorded 95 or
more yards from scrimmage in five of those contests, and in nine
total games he has thrice surpassed 16 fantasy points. New York
is the third most prolific rushing team, averaging 140 yards per
contest and 4.7 per carry. Prior to seeing extended rest last
week Ivory was averaging more than 12 touches per game, so even
if Johnson again sees an expanded role there is a strong chance
that the starter will lead the team in rushing yards and attempts,
and he’s far more likely to find the endzone.
In addition to shouldering most of the workload, the continued
involvement of Harvin in the offense should lead to greater opportunities
for Ivory. Already without Polamalu, the Steelers will also miss
LB Ryan Shazier (ankle) this weekend as both rest lingering injuries.
The growing attention being paid to Harvin will help loosen up
the defense somewhat, at least forcing Pittsburg to respect two
receivers and occasionally a tight end. Currently they are allowing
only 103 rushing yards per game, falling just outside the top
ten, but losing two run stoppers from the defense will not do
Pittsburgh any favors against the Jets power running game. Only
eight teams have faced fewer rushing attempts than the Steelers,
as most offenses feel compelled to try to throw the ball to keep
up with the high scoring Black and Yellow offense, and that has
helped masked their relative weakness against the run. On the
season they’ve allowed 4.4 yards per carry, putting them
in the bottom quarter of the league, so if the Jets can commit
to the run they may be able to find success on the ground, and
additionally keep the Pittsburgh offense off the field. Both of
which might help keep the game close, but recent history suggests
it won’t matter.
Projections:
Michael Vick: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Chris Ivory: 65 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Chris Johnson: 35 rush yds
Percy Harvin: 70 rec yds
Eric Decker: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Jace Amaro: 35 rec yds
Prediction: Steelers 38, Jets 17
^ Top
Panthers at Eagles
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: After a combination
of non-Sunday games, the Panthers will go 11 days without playing
a football despite not having their bye week during that span.
The team last competed on Thursday, the final game played in October,
and before Monday night kickoff they’ll be the only team
who hasn’t played in November. The extended rest certainly
can’t hurt, as Carolina is in the midst of a 1-5-1 stretch
since opening the season with consecutive victories. Week 10 will
see the return of three offensive linemen who were held out previously
due to injury, though none are currently listed as the starter
at their position so their impact won’t be immediate. Some
backups were still working with the first team offense during
practice this week, so the offensive line depth chart may be in
flux. No one has been immune from struggles this last seven games.
The prime example may be QB Cam Newton, who has tossed an interception
in five straight contests and not thrown for a score in the last
two. Yardage leader WR Kelvin Benjamin is still battling rookie
mistakes, but recorded his second most yards of the season despite
the struggles from Newton. Veteran TE Greg Olsen has seen his
two lowest totals of the year in these latest two games, and after
catching five touchdowns in the first six games he hasn’t
found the endzone in the last three. With additional time to prepare
for this primetime matchup it’s possible that the Panthers
find a way to end their recent struggles, but until they prove
they can that optimism is unfounded.
Both the Carolina passing game and the opposing defense are ranked
in the low 20s for yardage, are similarly ranked with regards
to aerial touchdowns, and each have a yards per attempt average
in the low 7s. The only areas where they truly differ are in interceptions
and sacks, where each unit a low number of picks and a high number
of sacks; low turnovers of course favor the offense, and increased
quarterback pressure favors the defense, essentially balancing
out one another. Considering the major statistical categories,
the Panthers passing game will compete with their defensive equals,
serving as a litmus test of sorts for both units. If Newton can
kick the recent interception habit that he’s acquired then
the Eagles aren’t likely to take the ball away during pass
plays, regardless of the pressure which they’re expected
to generate. To that point, LB DeMeco Ryans (Achilles) will be
unavailable for the remainder of the year, so Philadelphia pass
rush will likely suffer. On the season the Eagles have allowed
256 passing yards per game and have conceded 17 touchdowns through
the air, so any improvement from Carolina is likely to pay dividends
and may be enough to get them back on track in the NFC South.
Running Game Thoughts: There’s an old metaphor about a
feces river, a hollowed out man-powered boat, and not having the
instruments needed to adequately steer the vessel. Fantasy owners
with a Carolina running back on their roster ought to be able
to relate, since they likely understand the desperation those
creek travelers must feel as their canoe aimlessly drifts down
the metaphorical stream. Struck again with numerous injuries earlier
this season, the Panthers backfield awkwardly sorted itself out
through attrition. Now with the return of RB DeAngelo Williams
(ankle) to full health, after RB Jonathan Stewart too finally
found a healthy stretch, Carolina can once again use their desired
rotation as Williams resumes the starting role and Stewart is
relegated to duties as the change of pace back. The most effective
runner though is Newton, whose duel threat abilities have significantly
bolstered his fantasy value despite his pedestrian showings as
a passer. The team’s 95 rushing yard average is spilt remarkably
evenly between Newton and the two running backs, so without finding
the endzone none have impressive fantasy upside. Since touchdown
vulture RB Mike Tolbert still on short term Injured Reserve, most
goal line carries will likely remain in the hands of the quarterback,
which further limits the utility of the backfield duo.
Exacerbating the problem with Panthers running backs is that
they’ll be facing a Philadelphia defense that has allowed
just three touchdowns on the ground this season. Though they are
ranked 20th in yards allowed the Eagles are better than average
on a per touch basis, yielding right at four yards per carry and
not allowing an opposing ball carrier to rush for 30 or more yards
on a single attempt through eight contests. Without giving up
many big plays Philadelphia forces their opponents to focus on
the run in order to make appreciable gains, though for the Panthers
this won’t necessarily be a problem. Because they have limited
upside at the receiver positions Carolina had to build themselves
as a running team, and the frequency at which Newton becomes a
ball carrier makes it even more difficult for defenses to adequately
prepare for the ground attack. Historically the Panthers have
been best when the running game is the defense’s primary
focus, which allows the quarterback to take advantage of a softer
secondary, but then when they back off Newton has the opportunity
to exploit them on the ground as well. Considering the Eagles
don’t have a stiff run defense and their defensive leader
was recently lost of the season, the timing may be perfect for
Carolina to reestablish the running game.
Projections:
Cam Newton: 245 pass yds, 1 TD, 40 rush yds
DeAngelo Williams: 55 rush yds, 1 TD
Jonathan Stewart: 35 rush yds
Kelvin Benjamin: 70 rec yds
Jerricho Cotchery: 40 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Making his first start in nearly two years,
QB Mark Sanchez was called into action last week when starting
QB Nick Foles (clavicle) was knocked out of the game. On his first
throw Sanchez connected with WR Jeremy Maclin on a deep pass,
and a few plays later he connected with WR Jordan Matthews on
a touchdown strike. The hot start for Sanchez calmed the nerves
of the Eagles faithful, though rumblings had begun that Foles
may have been at risk of losing his starting job. Even though
the surprise player of 2013 does not require surgery, he is still
expected to be out six weeks, so regardless of whatever rumors
were circling, Sanchez will be the signal caller until at least
the final game of the season. In fantasy terms Foles is now worthless
in the majority of leagues, though on the field Philadelphia is
hoping to have him back for their eventual playoffs run. The team
is currently third in the NFC and holds a half game lead in the
East, so even if the division title comes down to the final game
of the season like it usually does, the Eagles have to feel pretty
good about being 6-2 overall and having an unblemished division
record. Coach Chip Kelly is confident Sanchez can run the wide
open offense, and with three quarters of experience to go on he
seems spot on. As a top five passing attack the Eagles have averaged
285 yards through eight games, and their 11 sacks surrendered
is fourth best in the league. With Maclin as a deep threat, Matthews
a quality possession receiver and impressive redzone target, and
a pair of dynamic pass catchers out of the backfield, Sanchez
finally has the weapons he never had on his old team, and his
experience may be just what the Eagles have needed to finally
take control of their playoff destiny.
The formerly dominant Carolina pass defense has regressed back
to the NFL mean, residing at approximately the midway point of
most major statistical categories. Ranking no higher than ninth
(interceptions) and as low as 25th (touchdowns), all but one of
the remaining aspects put the Panthers in the middle third of
league pass defense. The outlying area is completion percentage,
where Carolina is the second most permissive defense, allowing
opposing quarterbacks to complete over 69% of their passes. To
put it all together, the type of offense which should find the
most success against the Panthers is one that utilizes the short
passing game and takes advantage of whatever the defense gives
them, likely with multiple wide receiver sets or mismatches as
linebackers are forced to cover running backs. Even to the casual
observer, this description should sound very much like the style
of offense Chip Kelly has implemented in Philadelphia. Now that
a veteran is at the helm it is reasonable to expect fewer mistakes
and quicker decisions, meaning that the Eagles may be even more
potent than they’ve been up to the midpoint of the season.
Running Game Thoughts: For most of the season Philadelphia has
struggled with injuries on the offensive line. Coming into Week
10 there will be another change, with G Todd Herremans (biceps)
now out for the year, and G Evan Mathis (knee) returning from
short term Injured Reserve and scheduled to start on the right
side, opposite the vacancy created by the newest injury. Even
with the unplanned ebb and flow of personnel, the Eagles have
the eighth best rushing attack, averaging 125 yards per game.
Compared to last year when they dominated the league on the ground,
what is lacking this year is the frequency of explosive plays;
Philadelphia has a good, but not great, 4.3 yards per carry average.
Leading the ground game is RB LeSean McCoy, who has four straight
games with at least 80 rushing yards and has broken 115 twice
during that span. The only thing keeping him from fantasy superstardom
has been an inability to find the endzone, with his only score
all year coming in Week 2, another Monday night contest. Although
the acquisition of RB Darren Sproles was expected to kick the
rushing game into another gear, his use has been sporatic, and
aside from some early season heroics when McCoy was limited he
has been almost irrelevant in fantasy football. The Eagles continue
to use him, or at least threaten to use him, in all aspects of
the game, so defenses are forced to be aware of his presence,
but little of what he’s done has translated into the boxscore.
With 11 days to prepare for Philadelphia it’s possible
that the Panthers have devised a way to slow down the rushing
attack, but it’s probably more likely that they’ve
spent a week and a half studying film and shaking their heads,
knowing there’s little they can to do keep the Eagles from
running all over them. Off the field the legal case against DE
Greg Hardy has been postponed until 2015, so the Panthers most
dynamic defender will remain on Commissioner’s Exemption
List and apart from the team. For that and a handful of other
reasons, Carolina has the seventh worst run defense this season,
surrendering 132 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry,
the worst mark in the league. They’ve also given up the
second most scores in the ground game, with 11 from nine contests.
The Panthers are the only team in the league to have yielded a
rush of longer than 71 yards, and their season worst is 18 yards
worse than that. Though the NFL remains a quarterback league and
the pregame coverage almost always focuses on the man under center,
the Philadelphia rushing attack and the Panthers attempts to contain
it should tell the tale of this matchup, and in a fantasy world
where running backs are still the most valuable commodity of all,
it’s hard to complain when your guy is squaring off against
Carolina.
Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 270 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
LeSean McCoy: 95 rush yds, 20 rec yds, 2 TDs
Darren Sproles: 30 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Jeremy Maclin: 125 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan Matthews: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Zach Ertz: 35 rec yds
Prediction: Eagles 31, Panthers
23 ^ Top
Broncos @ Raiders
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: While the
loss on the scoreboard is still stinging for fans of the Denver
Broncos, fantasy owners were treated to another productive fantasy
day from their future Hall of Fame quarterback. Peyton Manning
threw for 438 yards and two touchdowns in the road loss to the
Patriots and while his two interceptions hurt his overall fantasy
total, it was still Manning’s 10th-straight game (going
back to 2013) where he reached at least 20 fantasy points in standard
scoring formats. Manning remains arguably the top overall player
in fantasy football and his receivers continue to put up monster
numbers as well. Demaryius Thomas, who started the season slow,
has now caught at least seven passes and exceeded 100 receiving
yards in five straight games. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Sanders continues
to put up huge numbers of his own. He has made 19 receptions for
271 yards and three touchdowns in his past two games, in addition
to the hot start that he got off to at the beginning of the season.
Tight end Julius Thomas has begun to fall off a bit from the absurd
start, but he did get back into the end zone in Week 9 and remains
one of the premiere red zone threats in all of football. The one
player who has not been great that we expected a lot from to start
the season has been Wes Welker. Welker has not yet exceeded 70
yards in a single game and while he has typically been a volume
receiver, he has not exceeded three catches in any game since
Week 5. With Sanders and the Thomas’ being so productive,
it seems as if Welker is being phased out of the offense.
The Raiders have been quietly good against the pass this season,
but this could be the matchup where it gets blown up. Manning
and the Broncos threw for seven touchdowns in their two matchups
against Oakland in 2013 and with the Denver offense putting up
similar numbers to what they did a season ago, there’s little
reason to think that the Raiders are suddenly going to be able
to slow them down. Look for big days from the usual suspects in
the Denver offense, but sit Welker this week while we further
examine his role.
Running Game Thoughts: Now four games in as the Denver Broncos
starter at running back, Ronnie Hillman has really exceeded any
expectations that we could have realistically had for him from
a fantasy standpoint. He has been putting up RB1 numbers since
taking over for Montee Ball and it’s looking increasingly
more likely that he will keep the job even when Ball does return.
Hillman’s rushing stat line from a week ago looks abysmal
on the surface: 10 attempts for 16 yards. But it’s worth
noting that the Broncos fell behind in the game early and passed
heavily throughout the contest, which never allowed Hillman to
get into much of a groove. Not only that, Hillman actually was
a major contributor in the passing game, despite struggling as
a runner. He caught seven passes for 47 yards and a touchdown.
This week, he will be up against an Oakland run defense that
has been one of the worst in the entire league. The Raiders have
conceded 11 total touchdowns to the running back position and
an average of 162 total yards per game to opposing running backs.
After a 10 attempt day in Week 9, look for the Broncos to give
Hillman at least 20 touches in this contest, which he should be
able to take advantage of. Hillman is a solid RB1 choice this
week and should be in all lineups.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 280 pass yds, 3 TD
Ronnie Hillman: 90 rush yds, 2 TD, 30 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 30 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: It has admittedly been an up-and-down season
Derek Carr, but the Raiders quarterback has shown signs that lead
us to believe that he may be a future star in the league if he
can just get some talent around him. The rookie is on pace to
throw for nearly 3,500 yards and 22 touchdowns for a team that
has still not won a single game. Unfortunately, the talent around
him just hasn’t been able to get him to that next level
of fantasy production. Third-year wideout Andre Holmes currently
leads the team in fantasy points at the wide receiver position
with veteran James Jones closely behind. After those two, the
wide receiver with the next-most receiving yardage, Brice Butler
( 10 catches for 176 yards). The only other player in the passing
game who has any real fantasy value has been tight end Mychal
Rivera. Rivera, who had a bit of hype coming into the year, started
off slow but has been heating up as of late. He’s made 15
catches for 121 yards and two touchdowns over his past two contests.
If the Raiders are going to make this a game, their passing game
is going to have to be on point. Thankfully they’ll be up
against a Broncos defense that has been terrible against the pass
so far this season. Denver has conceded seven passing scores over
their past two contests and two or more passing touchdowns in
six of their eight contests thus far. While top cornerbacks Aqib
Talib and Chris Harris certainly have shown the ability to shut
down the opposing teams’ top targets, their defense as a
whole has been wildly inconsistent. Don’t look for Derek
Carr to be one of the top fantasy passers this week, but it could
be a worse matchup. Those in two-QB leagues could consider him
a low-end starter.
Running Game Thoughts: In a game where their team was competitive
on the road in what is widely considered the most hostile environment
in all of football, Raiders fans would have loved to have seen
more from their running game and top tailback Darren McFadden.
McFadden had been quietly putting up decent fantasy totals primarily
due to him touching the ball at least a dozen times in every game
since Week 1, but he was not able to keep up his production in
Week 9 against the Seahawks. McFadden ran the ball 13 times for
just 20 yards and didn’t get into the end zone. His four
receptions for 47 yards saved what was otherwise an abysmal fantasy
day, but it’s certainly not enough to make him an exciting
option in what will be another very tough matchup.
The Broncos have not allowed an opposing team’s running
backs to rush for more than 70 yards in any game since Week 3
and they have not allowed any team to exceed 100 rushing yards
against them since Week 15 of 2013. Not only that, but they haven’t
allowed a rushing touchdown in Week 5. Needless to say, this is
about as bad of a situation as you can find for an already bad
Oakland running game. McFadden will likely get his 10-plus touches
again, but that doesn’t mean he should be in your fantasy
lineup.
Projections:
Derek Carr: 260 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Darren McFadden: 50 rush yds, 30 rec yds
James Jones: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Holmes: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Mychal Rivera: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Broncos 38, Raiders
17 ^ Top
Rams @ Cardinals
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Just a few
weeks after the Rams threw away a multiple-score lead against
the 49ers, the two teams met again this past Sunday. This time,
the Rams were able to narrowly eek out a 13-10 win. As the score
indicates, this wasn’t exactly an offensive showcase. In
fact, quarterback Austin Davis completed just 13-of-24 passes
for only touchdown while throwing two interceptions. The loss
of Brian Quick for the season has been apparent in this offense
as Davis has not been nearly as productive and no other receiver
has really stepped up to take his place as the top target for
the young quarterback. One would assume that tight end Jared Cook
would be the new primary receiving option, but he has practically
fallen off the face of the planet, catching just three passes
over his past two games. Former Tennessee Titans wideout Kenny
Britt has been the defacto “WR1” for the Rams since
Quick has been out as he has 84 yards and a touchdown over his
past two games, but he has only made four total catches.
The unproductive Rams passing game does have an interesting matchup
against an Arizona defense that has been mediocre against opposing
quarterbacks so far this season. But while they have struggled
in some games, they have actually done well against the weaker
passing games they’ve played against. If you add up the
games they played against Colin Kaepernick, Derek Carr and Brandon
Weeden, the Cardinals only allowed a total of 601 yards passing
and two touchdowns in those three contests combined. Given the
Rams’ lack of success through the air as of late, no one
in this passing game should be in fantasy owners’ lineups.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s easy to overlook what happened
with the Rams running game in Week 9. After all, the group only
compiled 75 total yards rushing and no one scored a touchdown.
To say that their day was mediocre would be giving them more credit
than they were due. But it’s not so much the production
that is exciting here, as it is that the position finally appears
to be becoming a bit more clear. Zac Stacy has now failed to touch
the ball whatsoever in two of his past three games despite being
healthy, meanwhile Benny Cunningham has rushed the ball just 10
total times over that stretch. Instead, it has been rookie Tre
Mason who has now carried the ball 44 times over his past three
contests. Cunningham certainly appears to be the change-of-pace
back, but that alone won’t make him a viable fantasy option.
Mason’s workload makes him an intriguing prospect going
forward, although he will have a tough matchup here in Week 10
as he goes up against an Arizona Cardinals defense that has been
incredible against opposing running games this season. Not only
have they not allowed a single team to rush for more than 100
yards against them, but the Cardinals have only allowed a total
of four touchdowns to opposing running backs on the year thus
far. They were the first team to hold Cowboys running back DeMarco
Murray under the century mark in 2014 and it just doesn’t
look like a great fantasy day will be on the horizon for Mason
or any of the Rams running backs.
Projections:
Austin Davis: 235 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Tre Mason: 60 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Benny Cunningham: 20 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Kenny Britt: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Tavon Austin: 30 rec yds, 15 rush yds
Jared Cook: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: The quiet reemergence of quarterback Carson
Palmer continued this past week as the veteran threw for three
touchdowns - his highest total of the season - in a big win over
the Dallas Cowboys. With that game, Palmer has now thrown for
multiple touchdowns in all five games that he has played in this
season. That impressive stat line is actually more impressive
when you consider that he has somehow limited his interceptions
to just two on the year after a disastrous 2013 campaign where
he threw 22 of them. His arm issue now appears to be a thing of
the past as he is throwing the ball down the field with relative
ease. The one major issue right now, at least from a fantasy standpoint,
seems to be the lack of targets coming the way of the team’s
young, developing receiver, Michael Floyd. Floyd was targeted
just five times in Week 9, four times in Week 8 and three times
in Week 7. While it’s good to see that number going up each
week, it’s certainly not enough to make Floyd a viable fantasy
option and he has been extraordinarily disappointing as of late.
With the Rams secondary being one of the better groups at defending
the deep ball, Floyd’s upside may be limited once again
this week as he gets the majority of his yardage from long passes.
Instead, receivers Larry Fitzgerald and possibly even John Brown
could see an uptick in value this week. Fitzgerald has been impressive
as of late as he has averaged 87 yards per game and caught two
touchdown passes over his past four contests. Meanwhile Brown
has been very hot-and-cold, but has made some impressive deep
pass plays of his own. Look for Fitzgerald to be Palmer’s
primary weapon this week in what should be a good matchup for
him.
Running Game Thoughts: It was yet another impressive game for
the young do-it-all back for the Arizona Cardinals, Andre Ellington,
in Week 9. Ellington ran the ball 21 times for 95 yards while
also making four receptions for 39 yards and a touchdown. All
this against a Dallas Cowboys defense that has been pretty good
so far this season. Ellington’s ability to make plays not
only as a runner, but also as a receiver has given him one of
the highest workloads of any back in 2014. He has now touched
the ball 20-plus times in six straight contests. That kind of
workload is something that typically translates into plenty of
fantasy points and Ellington has certainly done that. He now sits
seventh among all running backs in total fantasy points for the
season and he seems to be hitting a groove. Although Ellington
continues to deal with a lingering foot injury from earlier in
the year, he remains practically the only player who touches the
ball in the Cardinals backfield and that should make him a lock
to be a top 10 fantasy back so long as he stays on the field.
In Week 10, he will be up against a Rams defense that has been
very good against the run for the most part this season. Aside
from a big fantasy day given up to Jamaal Charles in Week 8, the
Rams have held opposing running backs to just one total touchdown
in their other seven games combined. Not only that, but they’ve
been particularly stingy on a per-carry basis as of late, allowing
just 3.1 YPC to opposing running backs over their past four contests.
Ellington is a must-start right now given the number of touches
he is getting, but this isn’t the best matchup he’ll
have.
Projections:
Carson Palmer: 235 pass yds, 2 TD
Andre Ellington: 70 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 90 rush yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 50 rec yds
John Brown: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Cardinals 20, Rams
16 ^ Top
Giants @ Seahawks
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: While the
other three teams in the NFC East continue to go through turmoil
at their quarterback positions, the one player who has been a
constant for the division has been New York Giants quarterback
Eli Manning. Manning has rarely been an excellent fantasy quarterback
over the course of his career and he has once again gone through
great highs and embarrassing lows. But when he’s hot, there
are few quarterbacks better. Manning, who has now thrown for over
600 yards and five total touchdowns over his past two games, has
extended his interception-less streak to four games. Unfortunately
the Giants defense hasn’t done Manning many favors in the
win column as they have conceded nearly 100 points to opposing
teams over their past three contests - all Giants losses. But
while that may be bad for the team’s chances of making a
playoff run this season, it has been a good thing for fantasy
owners who certainly enjoy the fact that the Giants offense has
to pass to keep pace on the scoreboard. Manning attempted 52 passes
in Week 9, which led to a 359 yard passing day. Rookie Odell Beckham
Jr. was the primary beneficiary of Manning’s big day, as
he caught eight passes for 156 yards. He has now crossed into
double-digit fantasy production (standard scoring) in three of
his first four games as a pro, and is quickly becoming a must-own
in just about every fantasy league.
In Week 10, Manning, Beckham and the Giants will have arguably
their toughest task of the season as they head to Seattle to face
the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. While it’s true
that this year’s Seahawks defense has not been nearly the
dominant unit that it was a season ago, they are still averaging
allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks
on the year. They’ve been on a hot streak as of late, as
well, having not allowed a 200-yard passer in three straight contests.
Manning should be able to eclipse that number, but his day may
be limited if the Seahawks control the clock as they are so good
at doing. With Rueben Randle likely to see a lot of attention
from RIchard Sherman, look for Beckham Jr. to be the player to
watch in Week 10. Another player who could be in for a good day
is tight end Larry Donnell. Donnell got into the end zone in Week
9 and has a good chance to do it again this week against a Seattle
secondary that has conceded the fourth-most fantasy points to
opposing tight ends on the year, including a two-touchdown day
to the Raiders’ Mychal Rivera last week.
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie running back Andre Williams looked
like he might be one of the better young backs in the league when
he took the field this preseason, but that has not exactly translated
onto the field in the regular season so far. Williams fell below
a 3.0 yards per carry average on the year this past week with
his 12 attempt, 22 yard rushing performance against the Colts.
While he saved his day from a fantasy standpoint with a touchdown,
he has simply not been getting the job done with Rashad Jennings
on the sidelines due to an injury. Jennings has been able to practice
in a limited capacity this week, but his prospects of playing
still look fairly limited as he was only able to begin cutting
on his injured MCL within the past week.
With the Giants up against a Seattle defense that has conceded
the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs on the
year, Williams doesn’t seem like a great option for fantasy
purposes as we head into Week 10. Placing him into your fantasy
lineup is essentially a roll of the dice that he will get a goal
line carry and make it count. Other than that, it’s very
unlikely that he’ll get the workload or have the production
to warrant a start in anything but deep leagues.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 220 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Andre Williams: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Odell Beckham Jr.: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Rueben Randle: 50 rec yds
Larry Donnell: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: 2014 has been a very “Dr. Jeckyl and
Mr. Hyde”-like season for the defending Super Bowl champion
Seattle Seahawks. While they have looked dominant in some games
against good competition, they have looked dreadful in games that
should have been easy wins, such as their close win over the Oakland
Raiders in Week 9. And honestly, despite what many want to say
due to their love for the young quarterback, a lot of the blame
for Seattle’s rocky start to the season has to be placed
on the shoulders of Russell Wilson. Wilson went 17-of-35 for 179
yards and no touchdowns in last week’s contest against the
Raiders. While he did play his usual conservative style of football
and did not turn the ball over, his lack of production in the
passing game has to be a concern not only for the Seahawks as
a team but also for fantasy owners who are wondering if they can
trust him down the stretch. Wilson has now failed to exceed 12
points (standard scoring) in three of his past four games. The
only player who has had even a shred of consistency in catching
the ball from Wilson has been wideout Doug Baldwin who has stepped
in as the WR1 now that Percy Harvin is gone. Baldwin has made
18 receptions over his past three games and while he may not be
an exciting name, he does bring a level of consistency, as least
in PPR formats, that is difficult to come by.
With the Seattle passing game struggling so much, this week’s
matchup against the Giants could be just what they need to get
back on track. New York has conceded nine passing touchdowns over
their past three games alone. Not only that, but the only “mobile”
quarterback they’ve faced this season, Andrew Luck, destroyed
them to the tune of 354 yards and four touchdowns in Week 9. Don’t
expect that kind of a day from Wilson, but a nice bounceback game
should be in order this week.
Running Game Thoughts: While he averaged just over three yards
per carry in the Seahawks’ Week 9 win over the Raiders,
Marshawn Lynch made fantasy owners very happy with his overall
production as he took two of his carries into the end zone. Not
only that, but he had his biggest day catching the football in
recent memory by making five receptions for an additional 76 yards.
It was Lynch’s biggest fantasy day of the year and it comes
just days after rumors circulated that Lynch was potentially on
the trade block. Perhaps “Beast Mode” had something
to prove, but there is little question that he will remain one
of the top fantasy running backs for the remainder of the season
if he can stay on the field. The question, of course, is the latter
part of that sentence. Lynch came out of Sunday’s game with
an apparent calf injury and did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday
of this week. His status for Sunday’s game is now in question
and we will learn more about his chances in the coming days. Lynch
is known for battling through injuries and still producing, however,
so it would be a bit surprising to not see him suit up after he
was able to make it through the game in Week 9. Still, it’s
worth keeping an eye on and if he cannot play, Robert Turbin and
Christine Michael could see an immediate rise to fantasy prominence
as the Seahawks host a Giants defense that has been quite poor
against opposing running backs this season.
The Giants have given up a total of seven touchdowns to running
backs on the year while conceding an average of 166 total yards
per game to the position. Lynch is not typically known for being
much of a pass-catcher, but as evidenced by his big day in Week
9, he has really stepped up as an all-around back in 2014. Look
for another nice day for him this week as he is a good bet to
eclipse the 100 total yard mark and get into the end zone.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 220 pass yds, 2 TD, 40 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Kearse: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Giants
17 ^ Top
Bears at Packers
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: If ever there
was a player that needed a bye week it was Bears’ starting
quarterback Jay Cutler. Cutler has all the arm talent in the world
but has always been inconsistent and is far too careless with
the football. Tempers were flaring after a Week 7 loss to Miami
with Brandon Marshall calling out Cutler’s sloppy play,
and the Bears followed that up with a blowout loss to the New
England Patriots. Cutler has thrown 8 interceptions and has fumbled
the ball away an additional 4 times. On a positive note, he has
thrown for 2,093 yards and 17 touchdowns. He’s blessed with
massive 6’4” wide-outs Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon
Marshall, a duo that is among the league’s most dangerous,
and 6’7” tight end Martellus Bennett, forming a trio
that can cause severe mismatches especially in the red-zone. Offensive
guru Marc Trestman’s system has done wonders for the passing
game over his first two seasons, and hopefully he also has some
expertise in family therapy as well. Just wait until crazy uncle
Black Unicorn makes his opinions known.
On the season the Packers are allowing only 225.8 passing yards
per game and have given up 12 touchdown passes while grabbing
10 interceptions through eight games. The team faced Cutler and
the Bears in Chicago in Week 4 and forced Cutler into multiple
mistakes, shutting him down completely during the game’s
second half.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bears don’t run the ball nearly
as much as they should. Matt Forte only averages 16 carries a
game, despite averaging a healthy 4.3 yards per carry. Luckily
for his owners, he is heavily involved in the passing game and
very successful in that regard. Forte already has 58 receptions,
a pace that would leave him with an incredible 112 receptions
for the season. Rookie Ka’Deem Carey chipped in with 72
yards the last time these two teams faced each other, but a chunk
of that came in garbage time with Forte being protected on the
bench. Carey generally doesn’t see many chances with the
football. In fact, that game against the Packers accounted for
half of Carey’s 28 attempts on the season.
The Packers have been run over by opposing backs, allowing a league
worst 153 yards per game and 9 rushing touchdowns. Both Forte
and Carey were able to run all over the Packers last time around,
so perhaps the Bears will look to exploit the matchup and take
some pressure off of Cutler.
Projections:
Jay Cutler: 275 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 15 rush yds
Matt Forte: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
Ka’Deem
Carey: 35 rush yds
Santonio Holmes: 15 rec yds
Brandon Marshall: 105 rec yds
Alshon Jeffery: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus Bennett: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers tweaked his hamstring on a
scramble to the sidelines in a Week 8 loss to the Saints, but
the bye week came at the right time and he’s now considered
“fine.” Rodgers is having an MVP- caliber season with
2,092 passing yards and 19 touchdowns versus only 3 interceptions.
He’s also added 112 rushing yards with a touchdown on the
ground. Jordy Nelson has been dominant this season, catching 50
balls for 737 yards and 6 touchdowns. Nelson has been the focal
point of Rodgers’ looks in 2014, but it’s not like
the Packers lack other weapons in the passing game. Randall Cobb
isn’t far behind with 40 receptions for 578 yards and 9
touchdowns. Rookie Davante Adams has made his presence felt as
the WR3, coming on strong in recent weeks. Rodgers has started
trusting the rookie more and more, and he has proven to be a dangerous
weapon with his size and speed combination.
Chicago shouldn’t be much more than a speed bump for the
surging Packers passing game this week. The Bears allow 262.3
yards per game and have yielded 17 touchdowns through the air.
Their secondary will have tremendous difficulties matching up
with the superior talents lining up across from them in front
of the Green Bay home crowd.
Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy’s
slow start to the season is now in the rearview mirror as he’s
found his groove in the two games preceding the bye week. In his
last game against the Saints, Lacy totaled 182 yards of offense
and was effective in the passing game. Lacy appears to be a bit
heavier than last season, making him look sluggish at times, but
he still runs hard, has quick feet for a back his size and the
Packers’ offense is too high- powered for the running game
to struggle for an extended period of time. Veteran James Starks
has averaged 4.4 yards per carry in relief of Lacy and is a capable
back that would be productive if he was called upon for an extended
role if Lacy went down. Starks, at 6’2”, has an upright
running style that makes him look slower than he is, but he is
a tough, hard-nosed runner that can find the hole and get through
it quickly.
The Bears have played the run reasonably well, allowing 110.1
yards per game and 5 rushing touchdowns on the season, so it will
not be a cakewalk for Lacy this week. He’ll need to take
advantage of any holes that open up while the Bears look to stop
Rodgers and his weapons, and his fantasy owners will be hoping
for a few goal-line carries to save the day.
Projections:
Aaron
Rodgers: 335 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Eddie
Lacy: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
James
Starks: 25 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Jordy
Nelson: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Randall
Cobb: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Davante
Adams: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Andrew
Quarless: 25 rec yds
Prediction: Packers 37, Bears 30
^ Top
Titans at Ravens
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: All things
considered, sixth- round rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger
had a pretty successful NFL debut against a tough Texans defense.
He struggled in the first half but finished the game 299 passing
yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. He gets another tough
matchup on the road against a good Baltimore defense but has had
two weeks to prepare as the starter and comes in supported by
a nice group of skill position players. Among them is the high-
ceilinged second- year wide-out Justin Hunter, who has earned
more and more snaps as the season has progressed. He’s a
good fit with the strong armed Mettenberger, as he is a very good
deep- ball target with his speed, athleticism and height. Possession
wide receiver Kendall Wright lines up across from Hunter and is
a good complement with his sure hands and quickness. Undersized
veteran tight end Delanie Walker has seen heavy targets in this
offense and has been highly effective with them, gaining 475 yards
with 4 touchdowns. With nothing to lose, and wanting to see what
they have in the former LSU star quarterback, expect the Titans
to air the ball out this week facing a team that yielded 6 touchdown
passes last week.
The Ravens were embarrassed last week on national television as
their biggest rival Steelers burned their pass defense for six
scores through the air. On the season, they are allowing 262.3
yards per game with 13 passing touchdowns. Expect the team to
circle the wagons at home against a brash rookie quarterback making
his second NFL start.
Running Game Thoughts: The Titans’ running game has not
been effective in 2014. It’s been mostly a RBBC featuring
Shonn Greene, Dexter McCluster and rookie Bishop Sankey. The team,
facing a losing season, has worked in Sankey more in recent weeks
and should look to see what it has in the former Washington standout.
Sankey, averaging a respectable 4 yards per carry, is the type
of back that does everything well but doesn’t excel in any
aspect. Still, he’s the most talented back on the roster
and should start seeing some opportunities.
The Ravens’ run defense has been strong, however, so the
Titans may find it tough to establish any kind of running game.
The unit is allowing a meager 86.4 rushing yards per game with
only 6 rushing touchdowns surrendered in nine games. The team
is strong up the middle and smothering tacklers. It’s hard
to imagine the Titans having much success on the ground this week.
Projections:
Zach Mettenberger: 255 pass yds, 1 TDs, 1 INT, 5 rush yds
Bishop Sankey: 55 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Dexter McCluster: 25 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Kendall Wright: 65 rec yds
Justin Hunter: 60 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco threw a beautiful deep pass late
in the game to Steve Smith, Sr. that would have won last week’s
matchup for the Ravens, if not for an offensive pass interference
call, but outside of that, he had a very poor Week 8. Flacco completed
only 50percent of his passes for 195 yards and 2 interceptions.
Flacco had a 5- TD effort against Tampa Bay in Week 7 but has
followed that up with an average and a below- average performance.
He will need to step up his game on Sunday Night Football against
the Steelers to stay in the mix in the competitive AFC North.
The Ravens lost tight end Dennis Pita earlier in the season to
a hip fracture and lost backup Owen Daniels in Week 8 to a knee
scope , but he was able to return Week 9, catching six passes
for 53 yards. On the outside, Steve Smith has generally outplayed
the younger incumbent Torrey Smith this season, but Torrey rebounded
in Week 9 with 63 yards and a touchdown.
The Titans’ defense yielded 227 yards and 1 touchdown to
Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 9. On the season, the team is allowing
257 yards per game with 12 touchdowns through eight games. They
rank 25th (good) in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Game Thoughts: Veteran Justin Forsett has effectively
replaced Ray Rice’s production in the running game after
grabbing the job and keeping it when Bernard Pierce missed time
with a groin injury. The veteran running back, who turned 29 this
season, is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and has shown that he
can handle a feature- back workload with 54 carries over the last
three games. Pierce was a healthy scratch last week, and it was
rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro taking over at the goal line last week
and scoring twice. Taliaferro, at 226 pounds, runs hard and should
handle the short- yardage carries going forward, leaving this
situation a little dicey for fantasy owners but a good situation
for the Ravens so they do not overwork the sub-200- pound Forsett.
The Titans represent a matchup to exploit on the ground. They
are allowing 121.1 yards per game rushing and have given up 8
touchdowns in eight games. They rank 6th (bad) in fantasy points
allowed to opposing running backs making this a perfect week to
keep Justin Forsett in your lineup.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Lorenzo Taliaferro: 35 rush yds, 1 TD 5 rec yds
Justin Forsett: 85 rush yds, 30 rec yards
Torrey Smith: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve Smith: 95 rec yds
Owen Daniels: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Ravens 27, Titans 20
^ Top
Dolphins at Lions
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: While it’s
unlikely that Dolphins’ Head Coach Joe Philbin is some kind
of motivational genius, Ryan Tannehill has played his best football
since the Dolphins’ game in London, where his hold on the
starting job was in question during the week leading up to that
game. On the season, Tannehill now has 16 touchdown passes against
6 interceptions while averaging nearly 240 passing yards per game.
He’s also on pace for nearly 500 yards rushing, showing
off his athleticism that stems from his days as a college wide
receiver. Miami has done a good job spreading the ball around
between its skill position players. After Mike Wallace dominated
the receiving game earlier this season, rookie Jarvis Landry and
tight end Charles Clay have come on strong in recent weeks and
have been major contributors to the passing game’s success.
New Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor came from Chip Kelly’s
staff in Philadelphia and the ‘Phins have taken to his up-tempo
style.
Miami faces a difficult test this week, traveling to the Motor
City to face the Lions 5th-ranked pass defense. The Lions are
allowing only 216.4 passing yards per game and only 9 touchdown
passes with 9 interceptions. The Lions have been able to take
advantage of some of the shaky offensive lines they’ve faced
by recording 23 sacks, but the Dolphins’ line has played
much better.
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller
suffered a shoulder injury last week but has been practicing all
week and is expected to play after initially having his status
in doubt. The Dolphins do not seem to trust Miller with a full
workload, despite his success this season. Even after Knowshon
Moreno, a serious threat to his playing time, went down, the team
still gives too many carries to pedestrian backs Damien Williams
and Daniel Thomas.
Projections:
Ryan
Tannehill: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT., 35 rush yds
Lamar
Miller: 65 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Daniel
Thomas: 25 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Mike
Wallace: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Brian
Hartline: 35 rec yds
Jarvis
Landry: 50 rec yds
Charles
Clay: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: The Lions’
passing game will finally get its most important piece, Calvin
Johnson, back this week. Golden Tate has performed well in his
absence but isn’t close to the physical presence that “Megatron”
is and will probably appreciate no longer being the focus of opposing
defenses. The biggest beneficiary will of course be quarterback
Matthew Stafford. Stafford did not perform poorly without his
star wide receiver, but his production took a dip. Johnson is
expected to be back to 100percent following his extended rest,
and it should be interesting to see if the Lions unleash the fireworks
once again or continue a more conservative approach behind their
top performing defense.
Miami has a top defense of its own, allowing only 201 passing
yards per game and bringing the heat with 27 sacks on the season.
Bookend defensive ends Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon have 11
combined sacks, allowing the team to maintain maximum coverage
in the secondary and still apply pressure.
Running Game Thoughts: The Lions’
running game has been a major disappointment in 2014. Joique Bell
and Reggie Bush have both struggled with injuries and have been
mostly ineffective even when healthy. The Lions seem to see Bell
as the better option carrying the ball, while preferring to use
Bush more out in space. This worked well in 2013, and the team
will need to get the run game back on track, especially with a
dominating defense.
The Dolphins have also played well against the run, allowing 103.5
yards per game and only 4 rushing touchdowns on the season. Expect
to see a defensive battle in Detroit this week – something
many likely would not have expected before the season began.
Projections:
Matthew
Stafford: 305 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Joique
Bell: 55 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Reggie
Bush: 45 rush yds, 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Calvin
Johnson: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden
Tate: 55 rec yds
Brandon
Pettigrew: 10 rec yds
Eric
Ebron: 15 rec yds
Prediction: Detroit 20, Miami 17
^ Top
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