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Inside the Matchup
Week 14
12/4/14

By: Sal Marcoccio | Brian Thorne | Nick Caron | Kyle Smith



DAL @ CHI | CAR @ NO | HOU @ JAX | NYG @ TEN

TB @ DET | NYJ @ MIN | PIT @ CIN | IND @ CLE

ATL @ GB | STL @ WAS | BAL @ MIA | SEA @ PHI

KC @ ARI | BUF @ DEN | SF @ OAK | NE @ SD
 Predictions - YTD
Rk Staffer W L %
1 Caron 35 13 72.9
2 Marcoccio 33 14 70.2
3 Smith 33 15 68.8
4 Thorne 31 19 61.2

Cowboys at Bears - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: This Thursday Night will feature a game between two quarterbacks who are coming off humiliating Thanksgiving Day losses to a division rival. Tony Romo threw two interceptions against Philadelphia and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in 38 games. Romo has mostly played well this season and has cut down on the fatal mistakes that have haunted him in the past. A balky back has bothered him all season, stemming from offseason back surgery. Romo seems fully recovered, though, after the two fractures he suffered in early November to the traverse process in his back.

Playing under the last year of his contract, wide receiver Dez Bryant has been among the top pass catchers in the league with 952 yards and 10 touchdowns through 12 games. Bryant has carried the passing game in recent weeks as second-year wide receiver Terrance Williams has cooled down after a hot start and tight end Jason Witten is wrapping up his outstanding career. Witten can still find the soft spots of the defense, but he’s extremely limited after the catch at this point of his career.

Romo and his Cowboys get a plush assignment this week facing the Bears, who allowed a dormant Lions’ passing attack to reawaken on Thanksgiving and who have not stopped anyone all season. The Bears are allowing 270.7 yards per game and have yielded an incredible 27 touchdowns through the air. Their secondary has consistently blown assignments and has had difficulties matching up with big wide receivers. Expect Bryant to shine in front of a national television audience.

Running Game Thoughts: DeMarco Murray has been a true workhorse for the Cowboys this season and is a legitimate NFL MVP candidate. He has rushed for 1,427 yards and eight touchdowns already and has added 343 yards through the air. He’s blessed with running behind one of the best young offensive lines in the league, a line whose dominance is reminiscent of the Dallas Super Bowl teams of the ‘90s. Murray is on pace for 1,903 yards and if he remains healthy he should have no problems reaching that number with three out of the team’s last foour games on the road in cold weather cities. With the playoffs still within reach the Cowboys should continue riding their workhorse.

The Bears have played the run reasonably well, allowing 105.5 yards per game and only seven rushing touchdowns on the season, but they can be susceptible to running backs receiving passes out of the backfield. Murray has 44 receptions already on the season and should be a great outlet option for Romo in a must-win game.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
DeMarco Murray: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Lance Dunbar: 15 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 105 rec yds, 2 TDs
Terrance Williams: 75 rec yds
Cole Beasley: 35 rec yds
Jason Witten: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler started off red hot on Thanksgiving Day, but ended up looking like canned cranberry sauce by the time dinner was served across the country. After two more interceptions, Cutler now has 14 on the season with six fumbles. He finished the game with 280 yards and two touchdowns with most of the production coming during the first quarter of the game. When the team needed him, he came up small.

Brandon Marshall is on pace for his worst season since his rookie year. He has been playing through various nicks, including a sprained ankle that may not have ever healed fully yet. Alshon Jeffery is also banged up with a sore hamstring but managed nine catches for 71 yards and a pair of touchdowns on Thursday.

In a game where the Bears were content with a short middle of the field passing attack it was tight end Martellus Bennett, whose production had been suffering after he sustained a rib injury, leading the way with 109 receiving yards. Despite struggling the last couple of weeks, Bennett is on pace for his best season ever with 65 receptions for 737 yards and five touchdowns through 12 games.
The Cowboys are allowing only 244.5 passing yards per game and have allowed 18 touchdown passes with 11 interceptions and could be vulnerable to the Bears passing attack if things start clicking at Soldier Field. The Cowboys have only managed 18 sacks on the season, so Jay Cutler should have time to throw, which should keep him from making too many mistakes.

Running Game Thoughts: After finally riding running back Matt Forte over the previous two weeks, the Bears once again abandoned their running game far too early and Forte managed only six yards on five carries last week. The Bears seemed to be scared off by the Lions top-rated run defense and settled on a short passing attack in lieu of running the ball. Forte managed to gain 52 yards on his six receptions and is generally a big part of the passing game. Forte owners must hope that the Bears finally figured out that a balance attack was the way to go, and that last week was an aberration based on a difficult matchup and not that Marc Trestmen fell back into bad habits.

This matchup shouldn’t be nearly as scary when the game plan is being drawn up as the Cowboys are allowing 119.6 yards per game on the ground and have yielded 12 rushing touchdowns on the season.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 15 rush yds
Matt Forte: 75 rush yds, 60 rec yds
Ka’Deem Carey: 15 rush yds
Marquess Wilson: 25 rec yds
Brandon Marshall: 60 rec yds
Alshon Jeffery: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus Bennett: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Bears 24 ^ Top

Panthers at Saints - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton’s season has mirrored that of his team’s – highly disappointing. He has just 13 touchdown throws with 11 interceptions and his biggest asset to fantasy owners, running the ball, has been limited all season. Newton’s top targets are rookie wideout Kelvin Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen, but Olsen hasn’t found the end zone since Week 6 and has a poor match-up this week. Benjamin offers the most potential for fantasy owners versus the Saints, and should be considered a strong play.

New Orleans is 28th in the league in pass defense but tied for 11th-fewest passing scores given up. They have been excellent against tight ends, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to players at that position, but have struggled against other positions. The Saints have surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and only three other teams have allowed more points to wide receivers, with New Orleans having allowed a wideout to gain at least 95 yards in each of their last four contests.

Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan Stewart will likely carry the load this week as DeAngelo Williams (hand) probably won’t play due to injury. Stewart has only 408 rushing yards on the season, but he did scamper for 85 yards on 12 carries last week, and fantasy owners should think of him as a flex play against New Orleans, who has struggled to stop the run this year.

The Saints are 23rd in the NFL in run defense, but only the Falcons have allowed more rushing scores. They’ve also given up the second-most receiving yards and fourth-most fantasy points in the league to running backs. New Orleans has really struggled stopping backs of late, having allowed 95 or more rushing yards to a running back in three consecutive games.

Projections:
Cam Newton: 255 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Jonathan Stewart: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Kelvin Benjamin: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Philly Brown: 40 rec yds
Jerricho Cotchery: 35 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 45 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: After putting up numbers that were below expectations (albeit very high expectations), Drew Brees rebounded in his last two contests, including five touchdowns last week against the Steelers. Brees lost rookie Brandin Cooks, but that opened the way for he and Kenny Stills to connect more often, with Stills snaring 13 passes for 260 yards and a score in his last two contests. Marques Colston scored last week for the second game in a row, but his inconsistency is troubling, especially during the fantasy playoffs. And while Jimmy Graham was shut out of the box score last week, it’s impossible to think he’ll be held down in two consecutive games. He had over 80 yards and a touchdown the last time he faced Carolina, and similar results are realistic this week.

The Panthers are 17th in the NFL against the pass and tied for 22nd in passing touchdowns ceded. They’ve done okay against tight ends most of the year, but have surrendered the ninth-most fantasy points in the NFL to both quarterbacks and wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram continues to carry the load for the Saints and piled up 122 rushing yards last week on 23 carries against Pittsburgh. He’s run for at least 100 yards four times in his last six outings, though he hasn’t scored since Week 9. The good news: that game took place against the Panthers, and Ingram should once again be in play for fantasy owners against that team this week.

Carolina is 19th in the league in run defense but is in a tie for second-most rushing scores allowed on the season. The Panthers have given up the 11th-most fantasy points in the NFL to running backs, but have been better against players at that position recently. Only one running back has gone for at least 65 yards on the ground against them since Week 6, and it took the aforementioned Ingram 30 carries to reach 100 yards when the two squads last faced off.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 270 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Mark Ingram: 110 rush yds, 1 TD
Kenny Stills: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Marques Colston: 55 rec yds
Nick Toon: 30 rec yds
Jimmy Graham: 85 rec yds, 2 TD

Prediction: Saints 31, Panthers 23 ^ Top

Texans at Jaguars - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick had a monster game last week against the Titans, throwing for over 350 yards and six touchdowns, which isn’t bad for a guy who had been benched. Still, that game is an outlier, as those scores account for more than a third of his touchdown throws on the season. And though Andre Johnson continues to lead the team in targets and scored for just the second time last week, he has passed the torch as Houston’s top wideout. That title now firmly belongs in the hands of DeAndre Hopkins, who cracked the top-10 in fantasy scoring among wideouts with his 238 yards and two touchdowns last week. With Johnson essentially out of the fantasy picture, Hopkins is the only member of the Texans’ passing game who should be in fantasy lineups this week against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville is 24th in the league in pass defense and tied for 15th in passing touchdowns surrendered. They are 15th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, 11th in fantasy points given up to wide receivers and 14th in fantasy points yielded to quarterbacks. The Jags have held opposing quarterbacks in check as the season has gone on, having held each signal-caller they’ve faced to fewer than 255 passing yards since Week 6.

Running Game Thoughts: Arian Foster returned last week after a two-game absence and ran for 79 yards on 19 carries. He didn’t score on the ground, but did catch his fourth touchdown pass of the season. There’s very little to think about here – Foster is a true RB1 and should start for fantasy owners against any team, but is an excellent play against Jacksonville’s run defense.

The Jaguars are 26th in the NFL against the run and tied for 22nd in rushing touchdowns ceded. They’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points in the league to running backs and are trending downward. Jacksonville didn’t allow one running back to run for more than 85 yards in the season’s first eight weeks, but have allowed three backs to gain 90 or more yards in three of their last four games.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 230 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 25 rush yds
Arian Foster: 115 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
DeAndre Hopkins: 95 rec yds, 2 TD
Andre Johnson: 65 rec yds
Garrett Graham: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles had a decent game last week against the Giants, despite throwing for less than 200 yards and only one touchdown. It can be called decent because it was the first time in his career he played in a game without throwing an interception. Still, he’s not a player fantasy owners will want to utilize, nor are any of his receivers. Marqise Lee has shown some promise of late, so while he and Bortles may be the future, trusting in either of that duo or teammates Cecil Shorts and Allen Hurns, is risky in the fantasy playoffs, despite Houston’s propensity to let wideouts go off.

The Texans are 29th in the league in pass defense and tied for 22nd in passing touchdowns given up. They’ve allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points in the NFL to tight ends, but have given up the 10th-most points to quarterbacks, and only the Ravens have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers. The Texans are tied for most receiving scores given up to wideouts, and have allowed a receiver to gain at least 120 yards in three of their last four games.

Running Game Thoughts: Denard Robinson ran the ball just 11 times last week, picking up 44 yards. It was his third straight game with 60 or fewer rushing yards, and the momentum he carried after unexpectedly blowing up has slowed. Still, as Jacksonville’s lead back, he does carry with him some fantasy value. The value is more along the lines of a flex play though, because the Texans have a solid run defense and running backs have had a difficult time finding the end zone against them.

Houston is 17th in the NFL in run defense but tied for fourth-fewest rushing scores allowed this year. Their ability to keep runners out of the end zone means they have not given up bunches of fantasy points, ranking 17th in points allowed to running backs while holding backs to just two rushing scores since Week 6.

Projections:
Blake Bortles: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 35 rush yds
Denard Robinson: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Marqise Lee: 60 rec yds
Cecil Shorts: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Allen Hurns: 25 rec yds
Clay Harbor: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Texans 27, Jaguars 17 ^ Top

Giants at Titans - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning has been a frustrating player for fantasy owners over the years considering the amount of interceptions he’s thrown. But with the exception of his five-interceptions against the 49ers, Manning hasn’t thrown the ball to the wrong team very much this season. What he has done is throw the ball to Odell Beckham Jr., who continued his string of impressive play last week against Houston, catching seven passes for 90 yards. Beckham – the only Giants’ pass-catcher worth talking about – has amassed at least 90 yards in four straight games, and is going up against a Titans team that was obliterated last week by DeAndre Hopkins. Fantasy owners should consider him a WR2 this week.

Tennessee is 18th in the NFL in pass defense and tied for 22nd in passing scores surrendered. They have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points in the league to tight ends, are 16th in fantasy points given up to wideouts, and have allowed the 12th-fewest points to quarterbacks. However, they are a vulnerable unit at times, as evidenced last week when Ryan Fitzpatrick threw six touchdowns against them and in Week 4 when Andrew Luck had four touchdowns and nearly 400 passing yards.

Running Game Thoughts: Rashad Jennings suffered an injury last week against Jacksonville, a game in which he piled up 91 yards and two scores on the ground. His status for this week was unknown as of this writing. If Jennings plays, he’s a fantasy starter, and if he does not, fantasy owners should strongly consider Andre Williams. The rookie may be running for less than three yards per carry this year, but he has scored five times, and there isn’t a better match-up for a running back than Tennessee.

No team in the league has allowed more rushing yards this season than the Titans, who are also in a tie for second-most rushing touchdowns given up. They have allowed the fewest receiving yards in the league to running backs, but only Oakland has surrendered more fantasy points to players at that position. Tennessee has been sliced apart of late on the ground, having allowed a back to gain 110 or more yards in four of their last five contests.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 260 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rashad Jennings: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Andre Williams: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Odell Beckham Jr.: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Rueben Randle: 60 rec yds
Larry Donnell: 45 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Zach Mettenberger was injured last week against the Texans and replaced by Jake Locker. Mettenberger figures to play this week, but that shouldn’t matter to fantasy owners one way or another because the rookie has no place in fantasy lineups. Wideout Kendall Wright had 132 yards and a score last week but has been inconsistent and shouldn’t be involved in the fantasy playoffs. The same cannot be said of tight end Delanie Walker, despite following up his 155-yard Week 12 performance with a six-yard showing last week. He has a quality match-up against and is the most likely Tennessee pass-catcher to do damage against New York.

The Giants are 19th in the league against the pass and tied for 15th in passing touchdowns surrendered. Those are average numbers, but the team has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points in the NFL to quarterbacks because no squad in the league has given up more rushing yards or touchdowns to quarterbacks. New York has also allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, but the ninth-most to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Bishop Sankey was highly targeted during the middle of fantasy drafts this season, but only the most hopeful of fantasy owners have yet to give up on him. While he’s gotten double-digit carries in six of his last seven games, Sankey has yet to gain even 65 yards and has scored only once in that stretch. He isn’t much of a threat in the passing game either, but does have value this week due to the match-up. Sankey should be considered a flex play because the Giants have an awful run defense.

New York is 31st in the NFL against the run, trailing only their opponent this week in that statistic. They’re also in a tie for second-most rushing scores surrendered, have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to backs and the fifth-most fantasy points to players at that position. The Giants have seen some backs have huge games against them this season, and in their last seven games have allowed a back to run for 120 or more yards on five occasions.

Projections:
Zach Mettenberger: 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Bishop Sankey: 55 rush yds, 1 TD
Dexter McCluster: 30 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Kendall Wright: 70 rec yds
Nate Washington: 50 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 80 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Giants 24, Titans 20 ^ Top

Buccaneers at Lions - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Josh McCown has had a few nice games since being reinstated as the team’s starting quarterback but has struggled in games where he has faced strong defenses. Last week he completed only 15 of 29 passes for 190 yards with an interception. McCown has decent mobility to escape pressure but doesn’t have a strong arm and makes too many mistakes. It’s obvious why he’s been a career backup, as he’s shown he’s surely miscast as a team’s starting quarterback. Mike Glennon didn’t exactly light the world on fire as the team’s starter, but he moved the offense much better than McCown, and there’s a good chance the team turns the reigns back over to him at some point during these last four weeks. Rookie wide receiver Mike Evans failed to find the end-zone last week for the first time in five games. Evans has shown an ability to get open downfield, and at 6’5”, he can go up and get the ball against shorter defensive backs even when the separation isn’t quite there. Veteran Vincent Jackson has taken a back seat to the rookie, and at 31 years of age, while he’s still shown a few flashes, his better days seem to be behind him.

The Lions are allowing only 235.0 passing yards per game and have managed to pick off almost as many balls as they have allowed touchdown passes (16:15), so the mistake- prone McCown could be expected to hand the Lions the ball at least a time or two. The Lions can create pressure up the middle, which will put McCown under duress, forcing him to get the ball out quickly. The Lions’ weakness, however, is at the cornerback position, so we should see a few positive downfield connections as well.

Running Game Thoughts: Surprisingly, the Buccaneers handed the feature- back role to the struggling Doug Martin in Week 13.Martin got off to a quick start with 48 yards and a touchdown in the first half of the game but struggled for most of the second half. However, Bobby Rainey is a journeyman- level talent and rookie Charles Sims has disappointed since coming back from the IR, so it’s likely that Martin gets an extended look for the new staff to decide if he will indeed be part of the team’s plans for 2015.

Martin will face a difficult task this week against the league’s top run defense. The Lions are allowing only 65.9 yards per game on the ground and only 6 rushing touchdowns on the season.

Projections:
Josh McCown: 235 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 10 rush yds
Charles Sims: 15 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Doug Martin: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Mike Evans: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Vincent Jackson: 40 rec yds
Louis Murphy: 35 rec yds
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford found the cure for what’s been ailing him when the Chicago Bears came to town on Thanksgiving Day. Stafford threw for 390 yards and two touchdowns against a terrible Bears defense, as Calvin Johnson finally awoke from a mini-slump to catch 11 balls for 146 yards and a score. When Johnson is healthy, he’s still the most talented wide receiver in the league, and his size and speed combination makes him practically uncoverable. Stafford’s struggles had much to do with the poor play of the Lions offensive line, which has allowed him to be sacked more than any quarterback in the league besides Colin Kaepernick. While it’s not likely that his line will improve much during the last quarter of the season, the soft pass defenses the team will face will surely help.

For example, the Bucs’ 22nd- ranked pass defense comes into town this week, so another big passing game could be in the cards. Tampa Bay is allowing 245.3 passing yards per game and has yielded 22 passing touchdowns in twelve games.

Running Game Thoughts: Reggie Bush sat out once again last week but should be back for this week’s matchup. The Lions have not run the ball well this season, averaging only 80 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry, before Joique Bell managed 91 yards and two touchdowns on Thanksgiving. Bush isn’t likely to be a savior for the running game, but perhaps his fresh legs will help keep the team a little more balanced on offense as the Lions use a two- back rotation to close out the season.

The Buccaneers have been an average team against the run, allowing 116 yards per game and 11 rushing touchdowns on the season. If the Lions can get the jump on them quickly, they could run the ball more than expected now that they finally have their one-two punch back.

Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 285 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Reggie Bush: 45 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Joique Bell: 65 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Calvin Johnson: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Eric Ebron: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Lions 31, Buccaneers 20 ^ Top

Jets at Vikings - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: On Monday Night Football, Head Coach Rex Ryan implicitly told General Manager John Idzik, “You can make me start Geno Smith against my will, but you can’t make me let him throw the ball.” Geno Smith completed only 7 of 13 attempts for 65 yards with a late interception that sealed the loss for his team. Smith has struggled most of the season, averaging a pathetic 5.9 yards per pass attempt with 11 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles in less than 10 full games. The team added wide receiver Percy Harvin midseason but has used him more as a RB/WR hybrid than as a downfield threat. Eric Decker, an offseason free agent acquisition, has mostly been wasted as well, as a result of the Jets’ poor quarterbacking. It would be tough for anyone to expect a turnaround this season.

The Vikings’ strong pass defense should not be tested much this week. The Vikings allow only 219.1 passing yards per game but have yielded 20 touchdown passes. Expect Ryan to continue keeping the ball on the ground and for Smith to struggle when he is asked to pass.

Running Game Thoughts: In addition to not fully trusting his quarterback, Ryan likely also saw on film that the way to beat the Dolphins was on the ground, as the Broncos running game gashed them the week before. The Jets ran for 277 yards last week as both Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson saw massive holes opened up by their o-line. Johnson broke 100 yards rushing for his first time as a Jet, showing the speed and cuts that once made him one of the most feared runners in the league. The Jets probably should have used both runners more than they have all season, as a strong running game was really the team’s only hope. With Johnson at 4.6 yards per carry and Ivory at 4.4 yards per carry, the running game has been effective, but Offensive Coordinator Marty Mornhinweg has always been fond of the pass.

The Vikings are the league’s 24th- ranked run defense, allowing 123.8 rushing yards per game and 9 rushing touchdowns, so the Jets should be able to move the ball on the ground. If the weather is inclement in the now- outdoor home field for Minnesota, we could see both teams run the ball, making this one of the lower scoring contests of the week.

Projections:
Geno Smith: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 35 rush yds
Chris Ivory: 65 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Chris Johnson: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Percy Harvin: 20 rush yds, 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Eric Decker: 45 rec yds
Jeff Cumberland: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Teddy Bridgewater continues to be efficient, albeit in a severely limited role, during his rookie season with the Vikings. Last week he completed 15 of 21 passes for 138 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bridgewater has thrived in the short passing game, and OC Norv Turner likes to move him out of the pocket on rollouts while he looks for an open target in the middle of the field. Charles Johnson has emerged as the go- to guy in this passing game, and as a big target with great speed, he is an intriguing prospect going forward. Johnson and tight end Kyle Rudolph should continue to be the only useful members of this passing game.

While the Jets held Ryan Tannehill and the Miami passing game in check last week, they have been a poor pass defense for most of the season. While they are only allowing a respectable 236.8 passing yards per game, they have yielded an incredible 27 passing touchdowns and only have 4 interceptions on the season.

Running Game Thoughts: Jerick McKinnon sat out last week with a back injury and the running game rode the lumbering Matt Asiata, who gained 52 yards on his 14 carries against Carolina. Ben Tate and Joe Banyard were also worked in but did not do anything of note. The team needs McKinnon back as he is the team’s most complete running back and the only one on the roster capable of making big plays. He has not been practicing again this week, so his status needs to be followed for those who are considering him for their lineups.

With or without McKinnon, the Vikings will have a tough time with the Jets’ 3rd- ranked run defense that is allowing only 85.2 yards per game with 7 touchdowns on the season.

Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 245 pass yds, 1 TD, 35 rush yds
Matt Asiata: 35 rush yds, 1 TD, 5 rec yds
Jerick McKinnon: 35 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Charles Johnson: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Greg Jennings: 35 rec yds
Kyle Rudolph: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Vikings 17, Jets 13 ^ Top

Steelers v. Bengals - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: In the two games prior to the team’s bye week, Ben Roethlisberger had a historic stretch where he threw for 12 touchdowns. Those two games were followed up by another two- game stretch where he threw for only one touchdown in each game. Last week against the Saints, the passing game got back on track, albeit with a large chunk of the production coming during garbage time. Roethlisberger threw for 435 yards with 2 touchdowns, but also threw 2 interceptions and could have tossed a couple more. The quarterback banged his hand on a defender’s helmet during the game and struggled to get it loose but is expected to be fine for this week’s game, although there have been some reports circulating that he suffered a wrist fracture. Antonio Brown has clearly been the focal point of the passing offense and added another 8 catches for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. Brown now has 96 receptions for 1,258 yards and 11 touchdowns with four more games still left on the schedule. Rookie Martavis Bryant had a quiet Week 13 but had scored 6 touchdowns in the Steelers’ five games prior to that and has given the team a legitimate second option in the passing game. Bryant, at 6’4”, is the big receiver the team has been missing and looking for since it lost Plaxico Burress in free agency.

The Bengals were looking like one the league’s most fearsome defenses during their 3-0 start to the season, struggled a bit after that, getting torched through the air in a few games, but have turned things back around again. On the season the team is allowing 238 passing yards per game with only 11 touchdowns allowed against 12 interceptions. The team should be poised to try and shut down its division rivals in a close AFC North race.

Running Game Thoughts: In the two games after the team released disgruntled running back LeGarrette Blount, Le’Veon Bell has averaged 32 touches for 238 total yards per game and has scored twice. Bell is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and has been one of the best running backs in the league after shedding 20 pounds during the offseason. With only Josh Harris, who was recently called up from the practice squad, and the diminutive rookie Dri Archer backing him up, expect Bell to continue to be a true workhorse back going forward.

The Bengals are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to stopping the run, allowing 125.1 rushing yards per game while yielding 13 rushing touchdowns. The Steelers should look to exploit this weakness, especially if Big Ben’s wrist is still giving him some trouble come Sunday morning.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 265 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT., 20 rush yds
Le’Veon Bell: 125 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
Dri Archer: 15 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Antonio Brown: 115 rec yds, 1 TD
Markus Wheaton: 30 rec yds
Martavis Bryant: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Heath Miller: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton has been one of the least consistent quarterbacks this season, and when he’s been bad, he’s been very bad. Last week the team was able to sneak away with a close win over the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers, despite Dalton throwing three interceptions and only accruing 197 passing yards. It’s been a very up and down season for the quarterback, who could be at the crossroads of his career with the Bengals, and the team will hope for “Good Andy” this week with the division on the line. Star wide receiver AJ Green makes things easier for his quarterback with his ability to track down the ball better than any receiver in the league, and his size makes him a great red-zone option. Dalton’s success has long been dependent on Green’s athletic ability, and the team isn’t exactly loaded at the position outside of Green with guys like Mohammad Sanu, Brandon Tate, Dane Sanzenbacher and Jermaine Greshem next in line for targets. Running back Giovani Bernard adds playmaking ability out of the backfield but surprisingly only has 25 receptions on the season.

Running Game Thoughts: Bernard suffered a hip injury that forced him out of a few games, which allowed rookie Jeremy Hill to showcase his game. That has led to a running back rotation, where Bernard seems to be moving closer and closer to taking a backseat to the rookie. Hill has shown good power while also displaying big- play ability. He excelled in the feature- back role while Bernard was out, and that has made it difficult to keep him off the field. It is possible, however, that Bernard is being eased back into his role, and that the team will take a “hot hand” approach going forward. Offensive Coordinator Hue Jackson stated all offseason that the Bengals would be a run- based offense, but so far the team’s o-line struggles haven’t quite allowed that to be the case. However, with the defense finding its way back to the level it was early in the season and with Dalton once again turning the ball over too much, the team just may turn the offense over to its talented running back duo.

The Steelers are only allowing 105.6 yards per game on the ground and should see the return of Jarvis Jones perhaps as soon as this week. The team could use his young, fresh legs in this important matchup.

Projections:
Andy Dalton: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs., 5 rush yds
Jeremy Hill: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 45 rush yds, 35 rec yds
A.J. Green: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed Sanu: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Gresham: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Bengals 31, Steelers 24 ^ Top

Colts at Browns - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck is on his way to being the next “all- time great” quarterback in this league, and frankly he’s currently one of the league’s best already. Luck has everything you would want in a quarterback: size, arm strength, accuracy, mobility, intelligence and leadership, and he has them all in spades. The Colts have not missed the playoffs since he’s been the team’s starter, and this season that trend will continue. It’s honestly hard to imagine a time that it will not. The amazing thing is that he’s been doing it without a great supporting cast. The closest thing the team has to a star at the skill positions is T.Y. Hilton. Hilton is a blazer and a dynamic athlete, but at only 5’9”, 178 pounds, he’s far from ideal size at the position. Besides Hilton, Luck throws to a well- past- his- prime Reggie Wayne, a diminished Hakeem Nicks, an emerging but raw Donte Moncrief, a dependable Dwayne Allen and a talented but drop- prone Coby Fleener. Somehow Luck has managed to throw for 4,011 yards and 34 touchdowns already, though, by making the best of what he’s got. The team has completely turned its offense over to Luck this season, and he hasn’t disappointed at all.

The Colts will come in this week attacking the strength of the Browns’ defense, however. The Browns top- 10 pass defense is allowing only 227.9 yards per game with 17 passing touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Joe Haden one of the league’s best cover corners will likely lock up with Hilton. It should be noted, however, that Hilton’s skill set is probably most reminiscent as the wide receiver that has given Haden the most fits over the years, Antonio Brown.

Running Game Thoughts: Former top- 3 overall pick Trent Richardson has continued the trend of being outplayed by every other running back that he has shared the ball with since being traded to the Indianapolis Colts. Now that veteran Ahmad Bradshaw is lost for the season with a broken leg, that mantel has been passed to another former sixth- round pick Dan “Boom” Herron. Herron has fumbled in each of the past two weeks, but he’s been far to productive to punish for those transgressions, as that would leave the running game in the not- so- capable hands of Richardson and his pathetic 3.3 yards per carry.

The Browns are the 28th- ranked run defense in the league. Perhaps the extra motivation of Richardson getting some measure of revenge against the team that traded him away after the first two games of the 2013 season will lead to him doing some damage against a terrible run defense.

Projections:
Andrew Luck: 325 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT., 25 rush yds
Dan Herron: 65 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Trent Richardson: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Reggie Wayne: 40 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Donte Moncrief: 70 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer was benched late last week in favor of Johnny Manziel after another poor showing. Manziel immediately sparked the offense, leading it to a scoring drive as Manziel finished it off by carrying the ball into the endzone on his own. However, Head Coach Mike Pettine announced that Hoyer would be the starting quarterback this week against the Colts, despite a 0:5 touchdown- to- interception ratio over the last two games. Josh Gordon returned two weeks ago, finally giving Hoyer a legitimate weapon to use, and this week tight end Jordan Cameron should return to the lineup after a long recovery from his concussion. Hoyer should be on a short leash, but the fiery veteran has responded well to adversity in the past and will look to keep the Browns’ playoff hopes alive.

The Colts could be in trouble as their only legitimate cover corner, Vontae Davis, is in the concussion protocol and has not yet been cleared to play. The last time Davis missed time, the team allowed Ben Roethlisberger to toss 6 touchdowns against them. Gordon has yet to find the endzone since his return, but this could be a good week to bet that that changes.

Running Game Thoughts: Terrance West could return to the lead running back role for Cleveland, after yielding way to fellow rookie Isaiah Crowell over the last couple of weeks. While a fumble by West that was scooped up by the Buffalo defense and returned for a score last week resulted in an angry rant to the media from his head coach, a hip injury that has caused Crowell to miss practice this week may give the team no choice but to ride West this week. The signing of running back Shaun Draughn off the street this week does not spell good news for Crowell’s status. Regardless, what was once an extremely strong running game has been going downhill since the team lost starting center Alex Mack to injury a few weeks back. The team will, however, need to rely on the running game if it has any hope to win this game.

The Colts are soft up the middle of the defense but are not as terrible as the lasting memory that everyone has where the Patriots’ Jonas Gray trashed them for 200 yards and 4 touchdowns. On the season they are allowing 107.8 yards per game and 12 rushing touchdowns. As stated above, the Browns will need to follow the Patriots’ game plan to have a prayer, as they don’t have a Tom Brady anyway.

Projections:
Brian Hoyer: 225 pass yds 1 TD, 1 INT
Terrance West: 35 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Isaiah Crowell: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Josh Gordon: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Andrew Hawkins: 60 rec yds
Jim Dray: 35 rec yds

Prediction: Colts 27, Browns 17 ^ Top

Falcons v. Packers - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan is coming off one of his best games of the season, a home win against Arizona where he put up 361 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ryan has always been a far better quarterback in the Georgia Dome than on the road and will be in a tough spot playing outside in the cold of Monday Night at Lambeau Field. He has a 13:4 TD/INT ratio at home versus 8:6 on the road. Without Roddy White in the lineup, Julio Jones took over the game, catching 10 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown. White is expected to be back this week, but Harry Douglas was able to fill in seamlessly for him last week, catching 9 balls for 116 yards. The Falcons have a great receiving crew and are one of the few teams in the league that can afford to get in a shootout with the Packers, provided Matt Ryan continues having a hot hand.

The Green Bay pass defense has been very good all season. Green Bay is allowing 234.5 passing yards per game with 19 passing touchdowns and 17 interceptions on the season. With Atlanta not having a strong enough running game to pound the ball against the Packers’ weak run defense in order to keep Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines, it will need to play flawlessly in the passing game to have any chance of leaving Green Bay with a win.

Running Game Thoughts: Veteran Steven Jackson broke the 100- yard mark for the first time all season against a tough Arizona run defense, but 55 yards of his total came on one touchdown run during the Falcons’ opening drive. Jackson is still a hard, dependable runner, but at 31, his legs just aren’t quite what they used to be. The Falcons like to mix in Jacquizz Rodgers and rookie Davonta Freeman, but neither back has played particularly well and their offensive line has struggled opening running lanes. While the way to attack Green Bay is with the running game, the Falcons’ uninspiring trio of backs isn’t likely to do enough damage for the Falcons to be able to sustain that approach over the course of the full game.

The Packers have managed to improve their run defense over the course of the season, but it is still a major weakness and is the league’s 28th- ranked run defense. The Packers are allowing 132.3 yards per game on the ground and have yielded 10 rushing touchdowns. If the Atlanta defense can somehow slow down the Packers offense, running Jackson up the gut wouldn’t be a poor strategy. However, the Atlanta defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone all season, and it would be a poor gamble to assume it can stop the Packers this week.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 305 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INT., 5 rush yds
Steven Jackson: 45 rush yds, 1 TD, 5 rec yds
Devonta Freeman: 25 rush yds
Jacquizz Rodgers: 15 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Julio Jones: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Roddy White: 55 rec yds
Harry Douglas: 65 rec yds
Levine Toilolo: 20 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: For the second consecutive week, an opposing defense was able to mostly shut down Aaron Rodgers’ star wide receivers, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. However, Rodgers still threw for 368 yards with 2 touchdowns, and Nelson was able to escape the tight coverage of Darrelle Revis to break away for a 45- yard score at the end of the first half. Rodgers was able to take what was given to him, leading to Davante Adams’ best game with 121 receiving yards. If not for an easy drop of a sure touchdown, Adams would have had an even bigger game. Rodgers is at the top of his game right now, and it’s hard to imagine any team completely shutting him down.

It’s even harder to imagine the league’s worst pass defense shutting him down in a home game. The Falcons are allowing a league- worst 284.9 passing yards per game but have somehow managed to allow only 15 passing touchdowns, which is the third fewest total allowed in the league. Despite that strange juxtaposition of statistics, it’s hard to imagine the Packers not putting the ball in the endzone multiple times through the air on Monday Night.

Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy and the Packers once again took advantage of the opposing team focusing too much attention on the Packers wide receivers to rumble for 98 yards against New England. For the fifth consecutive week, he surpassed 100 total yards as he added 17 receiving yards to his total. Lacy has improved his yards per carry to 4.4 now after an extremely slow start to the season, when he faced the upper echelon of run defenses. Lacy is rounding into shape and looks like the power back that carried the team while Rodgers missed time last season. With Lacy running wild, this offense becomes even tougher to defend.

The Falcons run defense is almost as bad as their pass defense, so Green Bay can pick and choose how it wants to win this game. On the season the team is allowing 118.3 yards per game and has given up 15 rushing touchdowns.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 365 pass yds, 3 TDs, 15 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
James Starks: 15 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Jordy Nelson: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Randall Cobb: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Davante Adams: 40 rec yds
Andrew Quarless: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Packers 37, Falcons 24 ^ Top

Rams at Redskins - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Now that he has reclaimed the starting position, QB Shaun Hill has an opportunity to lead the Rams to consecutive wins for the first time this season. Between injuries and the previously steady play of the backup, Hill has appeared only five times in 2014, thrown a pass in only four contests, and completed just three of the 12 games played by St. Louis this season. He has yet to attempt 100 passes on the year and in none of the contests has he thrown for more than 220 yards, but behind stellar defensive efforts, the Rams need him to take care of the ball and lead the conservative offense. In two of the last three starts Hill has not committed a turnover and has accounted for four total scored for the Rams, though during this trio of games he has completed 60% or more of his passes only once. Through the air St. Louis is consistently subpar, ranking no better than a tie for 21st in any offensive passing category, and coming in as low as tied for 26th in others. Though two different quarterbacks have started their outputs have been incredibly similar, though as the veteran Hill has earned the starting role after previously backing up another backup quarterback. With a lackluster signal caller comes a less than inspiring collection of pass catchers; no St. Louis receiver has gained 500 yards this season and only a backup tight end has recorded more than three touchdown receptions. With 12 catches for 189 yards and a touchdown in the past two games, WR Stedman Bailey has made a splash on the fantasy radar, but like WRs Brian Quick and Kenny Britt before him, expect his 15 minutes of fame to dry up shortly after you claim him off the waiver wire. No Rams pass catcher is a reliable option heading into the fantasy playoffs, and the man throwing them the ball can be safely ignored as well.

An aerial reprieve will be much appreciated for a Washington secondary which was just shredded by the league’s leading passer, giving up five touchdowns and 370 yards on only 27 attempts, three of which were throwaways. Two pass catchers gained over 125 yards and two touchdowns each, though the team’s two leading receivers were held below 100 combined yards with just one score between them. If there’s a silver lining to the dismantling of the secondary, at least the game plan was able to limit the damage done by the two biggest offensive threats, though by allowing two lesser receivers to look like all-stars it’s hard to find comfort in anything which took place on the defensive side of the ball in Week 13. On the season the Redskins surrender the most yards per pass attempt in the league, have given up the third more touchdowns, and are tied for the third fewest interceptions recorded. No team has faced fewer pass attempts, so it is reasonable to conclude that Washington is actually worse against the pass than even these paltry numbers may suggest. The only area where they are slightly better than average is in recording sacks, tied for 14th most, and considering they have faced fewer pass attempts this statistic appears slightly more impressive. Unfortunately, Washington allows big plays far too frequently to take advantage of whatever quarterback pressure they are able to generate. The sort of offensive efficiency allowed by the Redskins is the single greatest reason to consider starting Hill this week, but ultimately there should be better options available in this final week before most fantasy leagues begin their playoffs.

Running Game Thoughts: Despite not seeing the field until week six, rookie RB Tre Mason has nearly as many carries as the rest of the Rams backfield combined, and has clearly surpassed their rushing total. He has demonstrated his reliability to the team, not losing a fumble and being responsible for more first downs than any other non-quarterback. In his first four games Mason gained more than 80 yards from scrimmage only once and also found the endzone that many times, and in the four games since then he’s scored three times and surpassed 80 yards in each contest, including games of 114 and 164 yards from scrimmage in two of the last three weeks. His hot streak since Week 11 has made him a top ten fantasy back during that time, and as far as fantasy playoffs are concerned, Mason seems to be peaking at an ideal time. For the season the rookie running back has averaged 70 rushing and 14 receiving yards per game, and his six rushes of 20 yards are more give him six more than anyone else in St. Louis; when added to his two receptions of that length, only WR Kenny Britt has been more explosive this season.

The Rams have found success through a conservative game plan, reducing the number of throws and instead relying on the rushing attack; in their five wins St. Louis recorded no fewer than 26 carries, and in their seven losses they only once rushed more than 24 times. In contests where Mason is given 14 or more carries the team is 4-2, regardless of which quarterback is under center. Should the Rams again elect to feed the ball to their rookie running back, that strategy may actually play into the hands of the Washington defense. They’re in the top ten against the run with respect to yardage, and clearly above average in the other major categories. No team has forced or recovered more fumbles, and despite being on the losing side of a number of lopsided blowouts Washington allows just four yards per carry. Though they have given up eight touchdowns in 12 games, none were surrendered in their three wins. A strong run defense is a critical aspect of the Redskins game plan, but when every other area is faltering even this area of relative strength cannot hold together the rest of the team. The thought of Washington trying to force anyone to throw against them seems absurd because they’re so poor against the pass, but considering how reluctant the Rams are to air out the offense, this may be exactly what the defense needs to do to try to come away with a victory and hopefully escape the cellar of the NFC East.

Projections:
Shaun Hill: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Tre Mason: 65 rush yds, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Zac Stacy: 20 rush yds
Kenny Britt: 35 rec yds
Brian Quick: 30 rec yds
Jared Cook: 45 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Aside from an early Washington field goal by way of a sack-fumble on the first play from scrimmage, QB Colt McCoy was at the helm of an offense playing from behind for the entire game. Though the Redskins lost miserably thanks in large part to defensive ineptitude, McCoy put forth an excellent performance and recorded the best passing day of his career, throwing for 392 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Redskins offensive line continued to do little to help the cause, conceding six sacks in Week 13 to bring their season total to 39, the second most in the league. With a simplified playbook McCoy has demonstrated a strong preference for targeting WR DeSean Jackson (Questionable, leg) and TE Jordan Reed (Probable, hamstring), with both seeing an above average workload in the pair of games started by the one-time third string quarterback. The remainder of the offense however has been less fortunate, with the gap between Jackson and WR Pierre Garcon continuing to grow, and TE Niles Paul not recording more than 30 yards or three catches since Week 8 when McCoy first started. Provided that there is currently no timetable for Jackson to return to full activity, meaning he could be ready for this weekend or he could be out for the remainder of the fantasy season, Garcon has great potential as a handcuff but only in the absence of Jackson. With a small sample size McCoy has been better than expected, but with much at stake for fantasy owners and the Redskins alike, betting on a third string quarterback for sustained success is overly optimistic.

Though the flow of the game may be noticeably different than it was for McCoy in his latest start, the Week 14 matchup with St. Louis will present much of the same challenge that he faced in the most recent contest. Like the previous opponent for Washington, the Rams are more permissive than most through the air but are opportunistic in capitalizing on quarterback errors and feature a strong pass rushing front seven. Although St. Louis got off to a dreadfully slow start, with six sacks from the first seven games of the season, they’ve recorded 22 since then, giving them the second most in the league during the last five weeks. Adding to the headache of the struggling Redskins O-line will be DE Chris Long, who after missing 10 games returned to action last week and made an immediate impact. In addition to being phenomenally talented Long will also be the most physically rested pass rusher Washington has faced since the beginning of the season. When the Rams aren’t getting to the quarterback they’re approximately average for the NFL, though in two areas they’re almost as far from average as possible. Only two teams in the league have allowed fewer touchdowns than the Rams, which is in stark contrast with their ranking as the most permissive secondary with respect to completion percentage. Over the course of the season, the St. Louis pass defense has been fairly inconsistent, but after facing some of the best veteran quarterbacks in the league in back-to-back weeks, the Rams are coming off a dominant victory over an unproven quarterback and will be looking to follow it up with a similar win this weekend.

Running Game Thoughts: Though they’ve frequently had to resort to throwing the ball in an effort to narrow the scoring margin, Washington is a run-first team that is at its best when the ground game is finding success. In their three wins the Redskins averaged 138 rushing yards and scored five total touchdowns on the ground with a sixth coming from a running back catch. Those five scores nearly equal the number of rushing scores recorded in the other nine games this season, and the rushing average is roughly 35% greater than in their losses. Five times this year the Redskins have rushed for 86 or fewer yards and the average margin of defeat in those games in over 15 points; in the other five losses Washington rushed for no fewer than 122 yards and the average margin of defeat was less than ten points. Only once this season have the Redskins gained between 86 and 122 rushing yards, suggesting that they either find success and stick with the ground game, or are convinced by game flow to abandon the rushing attack. With few exceptions and almost regardless of the productivity of the ground game as a whole, RB Alfred Morris has been a consistent fantasy contributor, ranking in the top ten or better for the major categories of rushing statistics. He has recorded fewer than 55 yards from scrimmage only twice this season and has found the endzone seven times without losing a fumble. Recently, Morris has earned 19 or more touches in five straight games, gaining at least 83 yards from scrimmage in each contest, while scoring four touchdowns during that time as well. He’s the workhorse of the Washington backfield, receiving nearly 80% of all running back carries and accounting for 77% of the rushing yards gained by running backs; as long as he’s on the field he figures to be given numerous opportunities to lead the Redskins from the ground, meaning he’s a fantasy must-start every week.

The key for the Redskins offense will almost certainly be controlling the line of scrimmage, especially in the run game, if they hope to keep McCoy upright. A balanced attack will help keep the St. Louis pass rush at bay, so any ability to run the ball will be critical in covering up the deficiencies in the Washington pass protection. Since Morris shoulders the majority of backfield responsibilities it will be his success that most directly leads to McCoy having time in the pocket to take advantage of the suspect Rams secondary. Trying to prevent that will be a St. Louis run defense who gives up 111 rushing yards per game, 4.3 per attempt, and who has surrendered 10 touchdowns on the ground in 12 contests; all three of those marks are at or just below the midpoint for the league. Much like the pass defense has been inconsistent, the Rams ability to stop the run has waxed and waned for much of the season. In their three latest wins St. Louis has allowed no more than 80 rushing yards to their opponent and no single ball carrier has gained 50 yards on the ground. Even including the defensive standoff in week 10 where multiple touches were scored off of turnovers, in their seven losses this season the Rams have allowed an average of 120 rushing yards and have surrendered seven of their ten touchdowns in those games. If Washington is able to get Morris going early, and especially if he can find the endzone, chances are they’ll at least be able to challenge the Rams for a full 60 minutes.

Projections:
Colt McCoy: 260 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Alfred Morris: 85 rush yds, 1 TD
Roy Helu: 10 rush yds, 45 rec yds
DeSean Jackson: 80 rec yds
Pierre Garcon: 45 rec yds
Jordan Reed: 65 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Redskins 23, Rams 20 ^ Top

Ravens at Dolphins - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Despite being up double digits with just over six minutes remaining in the game, Baltimore was unable to hold onto a lead in Week 13 which would have catapulted them into the top AFC Wildcard spot. Instead they find themselves in a six-way tie for the right to punch their own playoff ticket, and tiebreakers currently have them on the outside looking in. To his credit, QB Joe Flacco did his part in leading the Ravens to the cusp of victory, recording three total touchdowns and not committing any turnovers. The offensive line too was admirable in defeat, allowing no sacks, keeping their season total at 15 through 12 games, tied for the second fewest in the league. The only apparent offensive deficiency was with the receivers, with no pass catcher recording more than 65 yards. In each of their five losses, neither of Steve Smith nor Torrey Smith gained 70 or more yards through the air, but in every one of their seven wins, at least one of the Smiths surpassed that mark. Even in some of the less stellar performances from Flacco, as long as one of his two top receivers is able to have a good day it results in a victory for Baltimore. From a fantasy perspective this means that the Ravens should have an apparent interest in feeding their receivers, even at the detriment of Flacco, so the Smiths should be looked at favorably even in difficult matchups. Even though TE Owen Daniels is the third leading receiver on the team, he hasn’t topped 30 yards or two receptions in three weeks, and with the necessary reliance on the two wide outs he should be avoided for the rest of the fantasy season if possible.

Another factor working against the remainder of the Ravens receivers is that their opponent hasn’t haven’t allowed more than 280 passing yards in any game this season, meaning there will be a limited number of yards to share between the Baltimore pass catchers. Additionally, Flacco himself hasn’t even hit the 250-yard mark in the last three games. The offensive philosophy has been more conservative and relied more on the run game, so while there hasn’t been an interception during that span there also hasn’t been a game with 20 or more completions. Against the pass the Dolphins are the second stingiest defense in the league, conceding just 198 yards per game through the air, and are the best on a per attempt basis with just 6.1 yards allowed. Only eight teams have surrendered fewer touchdowns, 12 have more interceptions, and just six have recorded more sacks than Miami; considering the gauntlet of quarterbacks they’ve faced and largely held in check, a middle-of-the-pack Ravens passing game certainly isn’t a cause for great concern. Compared to the other ten unique opponents the Dolphins have faced this season, Baltimore would be seventh best passing team, and better than just one opponent with a winning record. In the eight games since their bye, Miami has allowed just six receivers to top 80 yards. Since that feat was accomplished twice in each of a pair losses, that means that it happened just two other times in the other six contests.

Running Game Thoughts: Part of the reason Flacco has been able to play so conservatively through the last trio of games has been the impressive performances of RB Justin Forsett. During that time he has recorded at least 20 carries per contest, has scored four touchdowns during that time, and has averaged 133 rushing yards per game. Despite not recording 15 or more carries until Week 7, Forsett is fourth in the league for both of rushing yards and touchdowns scored. Even though he missed practice Wednesday and Thursday (knee) he is listed as Probable and is expected to see his normal workload this week, meaning that he’s likely in line for at least another 20 carries plus some involvement as a pass catcher out of the backfield. The emergence of Forsett has led to RB Bernard Pierce taking snaps only as a backup and occasionally in the redzone, and despite being the biggest of the ball carriers, RB Lorenzo Taliaferro has been all but forgotten, even in short yardage situations where the Ravens have recently struggled. For the season only four teams have gained more rushing yards than Baltimore, and individually there isn’t a running back in the league with 75 or more carries who is more efficient on the ground than Forsett. His 5.6 yards per attempt are the highest in the league, bolstered by a league leading 13 plays of 20 or more yards gained on the ground. Previously a waiver wire target, there are few if any better fantasy running backs to have right now than the Ravens workhorse.

As if the Baltimore reliance on the ground game weren’t enough, the Dolphins defense has been less than stellar against the run all season, and even worse as of late. In each of the last two games Miami has surrendered over 200 rushing yards, including 105 or more to a single ball carrier, while also allowing a rushing score in each of those contests. These monstrous performances have bumped the Dolphins average to almost 119 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per attempt, both of which are noticeably worse than league averages. Surprisingly, only three teams have yielded fewer touchdowns on the ground than Miami, suggesting they’re decent in the redzone despite being poor most everywhere else on the field. The Dolphins have lost only three times since their bye in Week 5, all to top quarterbacks, and twice that was due to the pass defense failing to make a play in the dying seconds of the contest. With the Ravens leaning more and more on the run that will put pressure on Miami to find a way to correct their recent ground game woes, but unless Flacco can take advantage of the defense stacking the box it ultimately may not matter how many rushing yards Forsett is able to record. Only when a strong passing game is balanced by a reliable rushing attack has an opponent been able to get the best of the Dolphins.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 175 pass yds, 1 TD
Justin Forsett: 110 rush yds, 20 rec yds, 1 TD
Bernard Pierce: 25 rush yds, 1 TD
Steve Smith: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Torrey Smith: 45 rec yds
Owen Daniels: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Although the final scores haven’t necessarily reflected it, QB Ryan Tannehill appears to have finally found his rhythm in the wide-open Miami offense. In each of the past five games he has completed at least 70% of his passes, and has scored 10 total touchdowns compared to just three interceptions; both are better than his season averages. Tannehill putting together an impressive stat line hasn’t been directly related to the Dolphins doing well, with the team winning his worst game but losing his best. Still missing from the game plan is the deep ball, with Miami at or near the bottom of the league for long plays as well as long scoring plays. The shorter passing game has led to a more even distribution of yardage and scores, with eight different players catching a touchdown pass, nine players recording a pass play of 20 or more yards, and six players gaining over 175 receiving yards with none breaking 675 yards. Over the course of the season WR Mike Wallace has been the leading pass catcher, leading the team in all major receiving categories, but in the latest stretch of five games he has been slightly outpaced by WR Jarvis Landry. During the period in which Tannehill has been his best, Landry has recorded no fewer than 46 receiving yards in that quintet of contests and has recorded four scores during that time. By comparison Wallace has found the endzone just twice and has been slightly outgained by Landry in in the past five games.

During the course of the season Tannehill and bounced in and out of fantasy relevance, and while he’s scored more than two touchdowns on only two occasions this year, both of those occurred in the last five games. His interception rate is down, completion rate is up, and in four of the last five matchups he’s thrown for more yards than his season average. As far as fantasy football is concerned, the Dolphins signal caller seems to be peaking at the perfect time. None of this is good news for the Ravens defense, a unit which is a single team removed from being the worst in the league at containing an aerial attack. Baltimore yields 274 passing yards per game and has allowed 20 touchdowns compared to just eight interceptions. Even their area of greatest strength, sacking the quarterback, is barely enough for a top ten ranking. Against a wide open, quick pass sort of an offense like the Dolphins employ, getting to the quarterback is even more difficult. Though Miami has allowed 28 sacks this season, only three have come in the last two games, a stark contrast from the eight allowed in the pair of games before that. What may hurt the Ravens most of all is the loss of DE Haloti Ngata (suspension), who will miss the remainder of the regular season. As both a pass rushing monster and a stout run stopper, much will be asked of the remainder of the defense as they scramble to, literally and figuratively, fill the massive void he leaves behind.

Running Game Thoughts: A key component of the Miami game plan is spreading out the defense and utilizing either the run-pass option or involving Tannehill in the run game as a designed ball carrier. Though his yardage totals have dropped in the last few weeks, his usage has held steady, with four carries in four of the last five contests including his first rushing touchdown of the season. Though RB Lamar Miller has handled the vast majority of backfield duties in the last four weeks he has not received more than 15 carries during that time, and only twice all year has a Miami ball carrier surpassed that mark. As important as the threat of the rushing attack is to the offense, in reality the Dolphins are a quick passing team whose best rushing days occurred before the halfway point of the season. To that point, Miller scored six total touchdowns and averaged 83 yards from scrimmage in the first eight games, and since then has averaged 60 yards while scoring just once in four contests. On a positive note, his conservative usage has led to fewer mistakes, with three lost fumbles in the first five games and no balls hitting the tuff since then. Though the Dolphins run less frequently than the league average, when they do so they’re one of the five most efficient team on a per carry basis. Where earlier in the season Miami ball carriers deserved fantasy consideration, the continued development of Tannehill and the passing game has led Miller to be a consistent, yet underwhelming, desperation flex play.

With both the aerial attack and the ground game making the most of their opportunities, the low risk approach to the Dolphins offense puts additional pressure on the opposing defense to make the most of whatever mistakes or stops they’re able to force. Considering Ngata won’t be available for the remainder of the Baltimore playoff push, the already suspect defense may find themselves in trouble as they fight for a Wildcard berth. Thankfully, at least for one week, the run defense shouldn’t be tested too much and that could give the front seven an opportunity to figure out how they’ll fill at the line of scrimmage. At full strength the Ravens are a top four defense against the run, allowing just 86 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per attempt. Part of the reason for their success has been teams deciding to attack through the air, taking advantage of the injured and inexperienced secondary, leaving the run defense to face the third fewest attempts of any team in the NFL. As would be expected with fewer carries defensed, Baltimore has conceded fewer touchdowns than the league average, but when normalized for attempts faced their mark is unspectacular. If the Dolphins can implement their game plan and spread out an already thin Baltimore defense, chances are they’ll be able to run at will and Tannehill will use that to his advantage as he picks apart the Ravens secondary through the air.

Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 245 pass yds, 20 rush yds, 2 TDs
Lamar Miller: 50 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Daniel Thomas: 10 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 45 rec yds
Jarvis Landry: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Charles Clay: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Dolphins 27, Ravens 24 ^ Top

Seahawks at Eagles - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: With so many storylines surrounding this Week 14 matchup it’s hard to focus in on just one of them. Perhaps most importantly is the real world implication of this game, with the winner making a solid leap into the playoff picture and the loser falling back into the Wildcard fray. As the unquestioned leader of the offense QB Russell Wilson directs an underwhelming and underused pass attack. With 192 passing yards per game Seattle has the fourth lowest passing total despite gaining 7.4 yards per attempt, roughly average for the league. No team has attempted fewer throws than the Seahawks, and even so only 11 teams have given up more sacks than they have. On the basis of sacks per pass attempt, the Seattle quarterback sees more pressure than almost any other signal caller. With a 3:1 touchdown to interception ratio Wilson is one of the best at protecting the football, but with only 15 passing touchdowns from 12 games there are only five teams with fewer scores through the air. On the receiving end of these seldom pass attempts, no Seahawks receiver has gained more than 520 yards and only two have surpasses 300. The top scorer through the air is the running back, and no other pass catcher has recorded more than two receiving touchdowns. Seattle is a run-first, ball control offense, and although he has proven himself a worthy signal caller, Wilson simply isn’t given enough opportunities to justify his fantasy value solely as a pocket passer. When combined with his rushing abilities the duel threat quarterback ranks in the top five at the position, but none of the pass catchers warrant a look as the fantasy playoffs draw near due to the lack of targets which come their way.

A low producing, sack-susceptible pass attack is exactly the kind of offense that Philadelphia is built to dominate. The current NFC East leaders are also atop the conference rankings for sacks recorded, averaging 3.5 per game for the season and 4.6 per game over the last five contests, since the offense was forced to make a change at quarterback. Nearly a third of the team’s sacks have come from LB Connor Barwin, who has recorded 10.5 of his 12.5 sacks in home games this season. The key to slowing down the Philadelphia pass rush is in finding a way to neutralize Barwin; in the only two Eagles losses since the bye he failed to record and sack and tallied just two solo tackles in each contest, both are personal lows over that span. The pressure Philadelphia creates has helped them lead the league with the lowest completion percentage allowed for opposing quarterbacks, but when they’re not wreaking havoc at the line of scrimmage the secondary is pedestrian at best. With 24 touchdowns allowed and 10 interceptions forced, the Eagles have one of the worst defensive ratios in the league while also permitting the fourth most touchdowns through the air.

Running Game Thoughts: The offensive identity of the Seahawks lies in their ability to overpower teams at the line of scrimmage, give the ball to bruising RB Marshawn Lynch, and rely on Wilson to make good reads when he’s given the opportunity to get involved in the rushing attack. Both as a scrambler and from the read-option, the duel threat quarterback has nearly double the rushing yards of any other signal caller, and with a 7.5 yards per attempt average, he is the most efficient ball carrier on the team. The star of the ground game is still Lynch, who averages 105 total yards from scrimmage and leads the team with 12 total touchdowns. He’s been the second most productive fantasy running back this season because of his ability to find the endzone, though even solely as a runner he still has the fifth most yards and the most scores on the ground. Unlike the other top ball carriers, Lynch has earned the majority of his yards without the luxury of big gains; of the running backs with more than 830 rushing yards this season, Lynch is the only one with five or fewer runs of 20 or more yards. By comparison, Wilson has just as many long runs as does the Seahawks workhorse, but has done so with less than half the number of rushing attempts.

Though the visiting team is the one that most people associate with stifling defense, the Eagles have been pretty stout against the run since their Week 7 bye. In the six contests since then the defense has allowed an average of 91 rushing yards per game and just 3.6 per attempt. Over the course of a season this would equate to top seven ranking in both categories, marginally behind their NFC West opponents. Both of these defenses have faced the top running back in the league; though admittedly seven games removed from each other, the Eagles gave up just 93 yards in the contest whereas the vaunted Seattle defense allowed 162 on the ground. In Philadelphia the defense has played particularly well in front of the home crowd, allowing just four rushing touchdowns from six contests and an impressive 86 yards per game on the ground. The Eagles are undefeated at home this season, and while Seattle will certainly challenge them to maintain their unblemished record, the defense has proven that it is capable of shutting down even the toughest rushing attacks.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 205 pass yds, 40 rush yds, 1 TD
Marshawn Lynch: 75 rush yds, 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Robert Turbin: 5 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 40 rec yds
Jermaine Kearse: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Luke Willson: 25 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Without needing to fudge the numbers very much at all, on paper QB Mark Sanchez is nearly the same as the man he replaced due to injury, and though the two have slightly different win-loss records they’ve led Philadelphia to the same number of impressive wins and reasonable defeats. The biggest difference between Sanchez and the injured QB Nick Foles has been their preference in receivers; since the switch rookie WR Jordan Matthews has seen is role in the offense increase, partially due to his growing familiarity with the offense and partially because his rapport with the veteran signal caller. In the five games Sanchez has led the Eagles, Matthews has scored five touchdowns and turned in four of the five best receiving performances of his young career. Some of his production has come at the expense of WR Jeremy Maclin, but even so the veteran has topped 90 yards three times and scored thrice in those same five games. One area where Sanchez, like the man before him, has to improve is in ball protection. He has thrown a pair of interceptions in three of his five appearances this season, but in the two games where he didn’t toss a pick he led Philadelphia to their two biggest margins of victory since the bye week. For the year the Eagles have amassed the fifth most passing yards in the league despite having a below average completion percentage and being tied for the most interceptions. Since they run plays at a historically fast rate it affords them additional opportunities to make up for their past mistakes, and it is this incredible volume of plays which make Maclin and Matthews solid fantasy contributors any given week.

Since their bye in Week 4 Seattle has allowed just one passer to throw for over 200 yards; the average over those seven games has been just 133 yards through the air. Though much is made over their home crowd and the advantage it gives them on defense, five of the last nine games have been on the road and that’s where they’ve arguably been even more dominant. Because the Seattle offense is able to hold the ball for so long it tends to disrupt the timing of the opposing offense, and since the up tempo Eagles offense is largely predicated on timing, it’s possible that the Legion of Boom could again find success away from home. On the other hand, since Philadelphia creates opportunities through volume, the Seahawks defense may be push toward their limit as they’re forced to defend more plays than perhaps they have at any point this season. The physical style of defense used by Seattle is successful because it disrupts the timing of routes, but in the wide-open Eagles offense there are usually numerous receivers out in the pattern, so as long as the offensive line can protect Sanchez he’ll almost always be able to find someone who breaks free of their coverage.

Running Game Thoughts: Although their west coast counterparts are the best in the NFL at running the football, the City of Brotherly Love has an impressive rushing attack of their own. Since Sanchez began filling in at quarterback, RB LeSean McCoy has gained over 100 yards from scrimmage or has scored a touchdown in each of those five games. In the two most recent contests he has eclipsed 130 yards on the ground as well as recording a touchdown, helping to boost his season totals to third in rushing yards and cracking the top ten of fantasy running back rankings despite having only four scores to him name. In the latter part of the season it has been RB Chris Polk, not veteran RB Darren Sproles, who has been sent in to relieve McCoy, but even at that he only sees appreciable touches in garbage time of blowout games. Philadelphia, for better or for worse, as elected to rely almost solely on McCoy to handle the load in the backfield, and for fantasy owners this couldn’t come at a better time. As the playoffs approach, his value and usage are reaching their peaks, meaning he’s locked into the starting lineup regardless of who the opponent is. Even though he is frequently on the field, McCoy is kept relatively fresh due to the number of pass plays Philadelphia attempts, and since they run more total plays than any other team in the league there are still plenty of carries to give to the star running back.

The last time Seattle played a road game against a non-divisional opponent they surrendered 190 yards rushing and gave up three scores on the ground. This happened against the seventh ranked rushing offense; the Eagles are the sixth ranked rushing offense, one better than the team that dismantled the usually stout Seahawks defense. Though their previous opponent is a bit more efficient on the ground they also have one of the worst passing attacks in the league, so the advantage that Philadelphia brings to Week 14 is that their impressive ground game is balanced by a wide-open aerial attack as well. In this respect another storyline pops up, with the two head coaches previously meeting in college, and the now-Eagles coach leading his offense to a dominating victory over a tough defense, which was coached by the man now leading Seattle from the sidelines. Between the history of the coaches, the dramatically different philosophies used to lead these teams, and recent games yielding more and more impressive results, all on top of NFL playoff implications, this Sunday afternoon matchup could be one for the ages.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 225 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
LeSean McCoy: 105 rush yds, 1 TD
Chris Polk: 15 rush yds
Jeremy Maclin: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan Matthews: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Zach Ertz: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Eagles 21, Seahawks 20 ^ Top

Chiefs @ Cardinals - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: In today’s NFL, a quarterback throwing for multiple touchdowns in consecutive weeks is nothing special. In fact, it has almost become the standard of what separates the good quarterbacks from the mediocre ones. But for Kansas City’s Alex Smith, throwing for multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games is something that he has accomplished only twice all season. He’s barely on pace to crack 20 touchdowns on the year and while he has kept the Chiefs in playoff contention largely due to his lack of interceptions, fantasy owners can’t do much with that. Smith’s expectations were low coming into the year, but he has even been disappointing when looking at those expectations. In fact, prior to his back-to-back two-touchdown performances in Weeks 12 and 13, he had failed to throw a single touchdown in three of his previous four games.

Now as we head toward the fantasy playoffs, Smith and the Chiefs will be up against an Arizona defense that has been excellent all year. The Cardinals defense has been a huge reason for the success they have had this season and their secondary has been exceptional. Only once all year have they conceded more than two passing touchdowns in a game and that game against arguably the NFL’s best quarterback, Peyton Manning. Smith is not Manning and none of the wide receivers on this offense are good enough to beat up this defense. Only tight end Travis Kelce should be considered a viable fantasy option in this passing game and that’s primarily due to Arizona’s struggles against the position. They’ve conceded the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends on the year.

Running Game Thoughts: Elite production from the running back position is hard to come by in fantasy football and consistency is even harder to find. But those who own Jamaal Charles know what kind of player they have. Despite playing in an offense that typically doesn’t score many points on a week-to-week basis, Charles has managed to produce monster numbers. He has now scored 12 touchdowns on the year and has made it into the end zone in eight straight contests. His 1021 total yards are a bit of a drop off from the pace he was at in 2013, but there’s absolutely nothing to complain about. There was some concern that he would sit out this week due to a bruised knee, which could have led to another start from Knile Davis, but Charles had been practicing fully and is now listed as probable for Sunday’s game in Arizona.

This will not be an easy matchup for Charles, however, as the Cardinals have been dominant against the run all year long. Only once all season have they allowed a team to rush for more than 100 yards and they have only given up one rushing touchdown over their past six games. Charles is too good to sit in any format, but this will not likely be one of his monstrous multiple-touchdown, 150-plus yard performances. Temper your expectations, but be sure to have him in your lineup.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Dwayne Bowe: 50 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Some teams have a quarterback carousel due to a lack of production from the position, but for the Arizona Cardinals, it has been a string of injuries that has forced their hand in starting numerous players at their most important position. The team will have to Stanton as their signal caller in Week 14, who has lost two straight games while posting just 21 total points on the board during that stretch. It would be easy to blame the running game which has been less than explosive over the past few weeks, but Stanton’s numbers have not been good. Since taking over the starting job in Week 11, he has thrown just three touchdown passes while being intercepted five times. Part of the reason for the lack of production in the passing game has to be that the team has been missing its top wide receiver, Larry Fitzgerald, for the past two games. Fitzgerald is, however, “highly likely” to play on Sunday according to reports.

This won’t be a good time to start trusting this passing game for fantasy production, however, as they will be going against a team that has conceded the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. While the Chiefs have given up at least one passing touchdown in every game this year, they have also not given up more than two passing touchdowns in any game except in Week 1 when they went to Denver to face Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

Running Game Thoughts: The Cardinals started off the season as one of the hottest teams in football and were even the sole owners of the best record at one point during the season. Much of that came due to the impressive performances from running back Andre Ellington who was being leaned on heavily, especially in Carson Palmer’s absence. Ellington had taken at least 15 touches in every game prior to Week 13 when he was knocked out of the game against the Falcons with a hip pointer. It is now being described as a “severe” hip pointer and Ellington has not practiced yet this week, which puts concern into fantasy owners who need their stud running back down the stretch.

Even if he does play on Sunday, however, this is not a great matchup. The Chiefs have only conceded two rushing touchdowns all season; and both of those came against Latavius Murray and the Raiders in Week 12. While the Chiefs run defense has been a little more forgiving in terms of rushing yardage lately, Ellington will not be healthy even if he does play and expectations of high production need to be tempered. If Ellington does sit, look for the team to turn to backup Marion Grice who did have 40 total yards on eight touches a week ago, but has not seen significant enough playing time to give fantasy owners much to go off of. Still, if he is the starter, Grice should be worth a low-end RB2 or Flex play if for no other reason than that the Cardinals give plenty of touches to their running backs.

Projections:
Drew Stanton: 200 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Marion Grice: 60 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
John Brown: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Cardinals 20, Chiefs 17 ^ Top

Bills @ Broncos - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Since benching EJ Manuel and turning to Kyle Orton, the Buffalo Bills have a record of 5-3 and have went from being a joke to a team that could potentially compete for a playoff spot. Orton is certainly not the superstar quarterback that makes headlines, but he has been quietly effective, throwing for 13 touchdowns while throwing just five interceptions. Even though he threw two picks and looked bad in Week 13, Orton got a win against the Browns in a game that could have playoff implications. However, he will need to be on his game in Week 14 if Orton and the Bills want to stay close to his former team, the Denver Broncos. Orton hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since all the way back in Week 5, but this is his opportunity to do it again.

Denver ranks 26th in fantasy points per game conceded to opposing quarterbacks and they have only held one quarterback without a passing touchdown since Week 2 against the Chiefs. They have also given up multiple passing touchdowns in seven of their past eight contests. Look for Orton to throw 35-plus times in this contest, which could lead to some decent QB2 numbers. He may, however, be without standout rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins who has been limited in practice with a nagging hip injury. Although reports are that Watkins should be able to play, fantasy owners need to pay close attention and have a backup option so they don’t take a “0” at the position for the week.

Running Game Thoughts: It has been a bit of a revolving door at the running back position for the Buffalo Bills. Early in the year, we expected that C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson would split the duties as they have been doing for the past few seasons. Then Spiller and Jackson both went down with injuries, leading to Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon being the new duo. Jackson is now back and seems to be ready to take a full workload. He got 24 carries in the win over the Browns a week ago while Brown and Dixon combined for just nine. None of the backs scored a touchdown, but anytime a back gets 20-plus touches, it is worth a closer look. The Bills ran the ball so many times primarily because the Browns were so incompetent on offense throughout the majority of the game, so they really didn’t have to put many points on the board and were instead content with just playing the field position game.

That won’t be the story here in Week 14 as they go up against the Broncos, owners of one of the best offenses in the league. This could mean bad things for the Bills running game as the Broncos have conceded the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. They’ve held opposing running games under 50 rushing yards in seven of their 12 games this season and it seems plausible that they could add to that number here in Week 14.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 250 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Fred Jackson: 50 rush yds, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Robert Woods: 80 rec yds
Sammy Watkins: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: It has been another incredible season for Peyton Manning in a Denver Broncos uniform as he and the Broncos appear poised to run away with the AFC West yet again. But the truth is that lately, Manning and the passing game have not been playing as well. Seven touchdowns over a three game span would be an incredible rate for most quarterbacks, but for Manning and the expectations he has set, it’s actually a fairly significant drop-off from his usual pace. Whether it has been an issue of injuries, weather or just bad luck, the Broncos passing game has been a bit disappointing since their monster Week 10 performance against the Raiders. Wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders were both held under 75 receiving yards for the first time all season this past week and with tight end Julius Thomas still nursing an injured ankle, there is reason to be concerned as they host the Bills here in Week 14.

Buffalo leads the NFL in sacks by a significant margin with 48 on the year, which comes out to a four sack per game average. Manning is known for his incredibly quick delivery and decision-making which typically means he doesn’t take many hits, but this is not an ordinary front seven. The Bills bring a variety of pressures that will have Manning yelling “Omaha!” all day as he tries to set up his protections. If the offensive line and backs are able to pick up the pass rush, the Broncos should be able to have a decent day, but Manning may not have the time to wait for his receivers to go down the field on deep routes in this game. Look for more short yardage passes in this game, which could mean higher-than-usual usage out of Wes Welker and especially Julius Thomas (ankle) if he does play.

Running Game Thoughts: There wasn’t much to be excited about from the Broncos running game earlier this season, but the recent production from third string tailback C.J. Anderson has been an unexpected gift from the fantasy gods. Anderson has been incredible as the Broncos’ lead back with Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman both out with injuries. Anderson has given the Broncos an incredible 658 yards of offense in his four starts along with three touchdowns. The team has been relying on his running even more over the past couple of weeks, as well. He ran for 167 yards in Week 12 and 168 yards in Week 13 -- the first back in the league to rush for 150-plus yards in back-to-back games since Adrian Peterson did it back in 2012.

This isn’t an easy matchup, however, as Anderson will be up against the Buffalo Bills who have given up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs on the season. They’ve only given up more than 110 rushing yards in a game once and they’ve only given up four total touchdowns to the running back position on the year. Still, Anderson has been so hot and he’s being given so many touches that he has to be in fantasy lineups this week. Look for him to produce low-end RB1 numbers with high-end upside if the Broncos end up at the goal line a few times.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 290 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
C.J. Anderson: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Emmanuel Sanders: 80 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 70 rec yds, 2 TD
Wes Welker: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Broncos 34, Bills 24 ^ Top

49ers @ Raiders - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been disappointing from a fantasy standpoint all season. His 15 total touchdowns and eight interceptions are not terrible, but they’re certainly not anything to be excited about. That disappointment is even more magnified when you look at his rushing numbers. Kaepernick, widely considered to be one of the most athletic quarterbacks in the game, has not rushed for more than 65 yards in any game this season, hasn’t rushed for a touchdown and he hasn’t even been over 40 rushing yards in any game since all the way back in Week 4. All of that should have told us not to trust Kaepernick as he and the 49ers hosted the Seahawks in Week 14, but nothing could have prepared us for the atrocious performance he gave us. Kaepernick completed just 16 of his 29 pass attempts for 121 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. Kaepernick has struggled against the Seahawks throughout his career so it’s not particularly surprising that he would have not turned in his best performance, but given that he has now failed to throw multiple touchdowns in six straight games, it’s quickly becoming time for fantasy owners to stop trusting he and the 49ers passing game.

A matchup against the Raiders is certainly nothing to be worried about, but it’s not like Kaepernick hasn’t struggled against similarly mediocre defenses. He threw for just one touchdown and under 250 yards in each of his games against the Giants, Saints and Bears; all of whom have conceded more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than the Raiders have. Only Anquan Boldin, who is borderline himself, is someone who owners should be giving serious consideration to out of this passing game here in Week 14.

Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore is the leading rusher in the history of the San Francisco 49ers and could eventually stake his claim in history as a hall of famer, but the days of him being a weekly fantasy option at running back appear to be quickly coming to an end. Gore has been nothing short of awful as of late, having rushed for fewer than 50 yards in five of his previous seven games. Worse yet, he has only scored two touchdowns on the year and has essentially been completely nonexistent in the passing game. His backup, rookie Carlos Hyde, could have potentially taken the job by now but he has been equally ineffective, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on the season.

Even though the 49ers have struggled offensively this season and particularly in their running game, their matchup here in Week 14 is stuff that fantasy dreams are made of. They will be up against an Oakland Raiders run defense that has given up more fantasy points per game than any team in the NFL this season. This past week, they were absolutely destroyed by a more physical football team in the St. Louis Rams. The 49ers are even more physical than the Rams and while Gore has been disappointing, if you’re in need of a running back this week or a Flex option, he could certainly be worth a start. Hyde, who has been a limited participant in practice throughout the week, could be limited or even miss the game entirely, which should mean even more opportunities for Gore.

Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 20 rush yds
Frank Gore: 100 rush yds, 1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Crabtree: 50 rec yds
Vernon Davis: 25 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: The Oakland Raiders have been one of the biggest jokes in the NFL over the past decade, but nothing has compared to the embarrassing loss they took at the hands of the St. Louis Rams in Week 13. The Rams, who are in a rebuilding year themselves, obliterated the Raiders to the tune of 52-0 victory. Of course, this meant that the fantasy production for the Raiders was nonexistent. Rookie quarterback Derek Carr had the worst game of his career, passing for just 173 yards with two interceptions and no touchdowns. He didn’t even make it through the entire game before he was benched for Matt McGloin. Carr is still going to be the starter here in Week 14, but in a tough matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, this is not the time for fantasy owners to start rolling the dice on him.

The 49ers have conceded the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season and have remarkably only given up more than one passing touchdown in two of their previous nine games; and those came to Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. Carr is a player who has shown signs of being a good player down the road, but the Raiders are one of the worst overall teams in recent memory and this does not look like a good matchup.

Running Game Thoughts: Veteran running backs Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew were expected to give the team a decent rushing attack. That has been far from the reality, however, as both players have fallen to complete fantasy irrelevance. McFadden hasn’t rushed for more than 30 yards in a game since Week 8 while Jones-Drew hasn’t done it all season. The only back who has done anything to speak of missed the team’s humiliating Week 13 loss to the Rams due to a concussion. That back, of course, being Latavius Murray. Murray had a monster game against the Chiefs in Week 12 prior to sustaining the aforementioned concussion. He is expected to be back on Sunday as the Raiders host the 49ers and he may just represent the only chance that the team has of making this game close. Murray’s explosiveness is something that the team hasn’t had at the running back position in years and the coaching staff has admitted that they want to see what they have in him down the stretch. If Murray can produce at a decent level, he may be in line to be the team’s starting tailback in 2015.

Now is the time to prove it against a high quality defense. The 49ers have been one of the best run defenses in the league over the past five years and 2014 has been no different. Being ranked eighth in fantasy points per game given up to opposing running backs is actually down from where they are normally ranked, but it’s still good enough to be a worry for any tailback, especially for one on such a bad offense. Murray should get the majority of the touches in this game, but this might not be a great game to start trusting him in your fantasy lineup.

Projections:
Derek Carr: 165 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Latavius Murray: 50 rush yds, 20 rec yds
James Jones: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Holmes: 40 rec yds
Mychal Rivera: 25 rec yds

Prediction: 49ers 20, Raiders 10 ^ Top

Patriots @ Chargers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: The 2014 season started off extraordinarily slow for Tom Brady. He threw for just one touchdown in each of his first four games and fantasy owners were beginning to wonder if it was time to cut and run on the future Hall of Famer. Since that time, Brady and the Patriots have turned on the jets, passing for 24 touchdowns over their past eight games. Tight end Rob Gronkowski continues to produce at a pace that we’ve never seen from another player at his position in the history of the league. The only concern about this guy is his health. If he’s on the field, he is one of the best overall fantasy players at any position, but especially a position as thin as tight end. While Gronk remains the guy who defenses and the media has focused on, it has been newcomer Brandon LaFell who has really been the breakout player in this offense. LaFell scored twice in Week 13 against the Packers and now has seven touchdowns and over 700 yards receiving on the year. Julian Edelman remains the team’s top possession receiver as he leads the team in catches with 77, but has only scored two touchdowns on the year.

The high-powered New England offense will have a good opportunity to produce solid numbers as they go up against a San Diego secondary that has conceded five games of 20-plus fantasy points (standard scoring) to opposing quarterbacks this season. While they have only given up two games of more than two touchdown passes, the Chargers have been remarkably bad at forcing turnovers. Their six interceptions forced are among the league’s lowest number and it seems unlikely that they’re suddenly going to start picking off passes against one of the most efficient passers in the history of the league.

Running Game Thoughts: The New England Patriots are professional trolls when it comes to unexpected fantasy football production. Early in the season, it was Stevan Ridley who was the top tailback in the offense. When Ridley went down, the team didn’t seem to have much to turn to, so it was practice squad call-up Jonas Gray who took the role. He rushed for 201 yards and four touchdowns in a monster performance in the first real playing time of his career. But then Gray made a mistake. He showed up late to a practice, which led to him being sent home. Gray did not receive a single snap that week as the team signed LeGarrette Blount, who had been cut by the Steelers earlier in the week. Blount went on to rush for two touchdowns and seemingly took the job as the team’s feature back. Blount is perceived to be a short yardage specialist and most believed he would at least be the team’s goal line back going forward, but in Week 13, it was Brandon Bolden who came in at the goal line and got the team’s only rushing touchdown. Meanwhile, Blount remained the team’s top rusher with 10 attempts for 58 yards in a game that was dominated by the passing game. Gray did get one carry in the loss to the Packers, but has become drop-worthy in most formats.

In Week 14, the Patriots’ frustrating group of tailbacks will be running against a Chargers run defense that has gone three straight games without giving up a single rushing touchdown. While Justin Forsett and the Ravens did run for 122 yards against them a week ago, the Patriots backs are not similar to Forsett in any way. Blount is the only player out of this backfield who can be considered for fantasy purposes and even then, he is essentially a touchdown-or-bust type of option.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 275 pass yds, 3 TD
LeGarrette Blount: 50 rush yds, 1 TD
Brandon LaFell: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Julian Edelman: 50 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 80 rec yds, 2 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers has quietly been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks this season as he has thrown for nearly 270 yards per game along with 25 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. Some expected Rivers to see a bit of a regression without Ken Whisenhunt calling the plays for the team this season, but that hasn’t been the case. Rivers has helped the career resurgence of tight end Antonio Gates, who has caught 47 passes for 574 yards and nine touchdowns which puts him on pace to finish with his best fantasy season since 2009. While Rivers’ receivers have been highly inconsistent, each one of his top three targets, Eddie Royal, Malcom Floyd and Keenan Allen have had games where they’ve been dominant. Lately it has been the second-year wideout, Allen, who has been putting smiles onto the faces of his fantasy owners. Allen has made 17 catches for 225 yards and three touchdowns over his past two contests. Royal has also made 15 catches over his past two contests, including scoring his first touchdown since all the way back in Week 6. The Chargers passing game did struggle in Weeks 9 and 10 as Rivers threw for just one touchdown with three interceptions in those contests; but they appear to be getting back on track as of late.

Unfortunately they will now be tested against one of the league’s best secondaries, the New England Patriots, and all-world cornerback Darrelle Revis. The Patriots have had a ridiculously tough schedule lately as they’ve gone up against some of the league’s best quarterbacks including Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers; but they only conceded six passing touchdowns in those four games combined. While Rivers is likely to throw for at least one touchdown in this game, it’d be surprising to see him have a big game in this difficult matchup.

Running Game Thoughts: A string of injuries have caused some major hiccups in the San Diego backfield this season, but now that starter Ryan Mathews is back on the field without limitations, it appears that fantasy owners can begin to feel confident placing him in their lineups. Mathews has rushed for 215 yards and two touchdowns in his three games since coming back while change-of-pace back Branden Oliver has only rushed for 50 rushing yards and no touchdowns during that same span. It’s also worth noting that Oliver carried the ball only once during the Chargers’ Week 13 win over the Ravens. With Mathews now taking the vast majority of the touches in a good San Diego offense, look for his value to continue to rise over the remainder of the season.

He has a decent opportunity to have a nice game in this contest as he will be up against a New England Patriots defense that ranks 21st in the league in fantasy points per game given up to opposing running backs this season. While they’ve been better lately, New England has given up a total of 11 touchdowns to opposing running backs this season, including six receiving touchdowns to the position. While Mathews isn’t one of the top receiving backs in the game, he’s capable of making plays in the passing game and could easily make the Patriots pay if they don’t pay attention to him coming out of the backfield. This will likely be a pass-happy game, but don’t be surprised to see the Chargers give Mathews 15-20 touches, which be enough to make him a solid fantasy RB2.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 280 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Ryan Mathews: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Keenan Allen: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Malcom Floyd: 50 rec yds
Eddie Royal: 50 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Patriots 34, Chargers 27 ^ Top