Cardinals @ Rams
- (Caron)
Passing
Game Thoughts: When he first took over the starting role
for injured quarterback Carson Palmer, backup Drew Stanton appeared
as if he might be able to continue where the veteran had left
off. He threw for 306 yards and a pair of touchdowns against a
very good Detroit defense back in Week 11. Since then, however,
his passing numbers have tumbled. He has just two touchdowns over
his past three contests, including a one-touchdown, two-interception
performance in what was one of the best possible matchups he could
have seen. A talented trio of wideouts including Larry Fitzgerald,
Michael Floyd and John Brown have become non-factors over the
past few games. Instead, Jaron Brown has become the target of
choice in this middling offense as he has made nine receptions
for 123 yards and a touchdown over his past two games. None of
these players is worth trusting at the moment for fantasy owners
as this struggling offense just does not seem to be turning things
around.
They won't have an easy time this week, either, as they go up
against one of the hottest defenses in the league, the St. Louis
Rams who have pitched shutouts in back-to-back games against the
Raiders and Redskins. They rank 10th on the season in fantasy
points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, but they've
been incredible in the second half of the season. They have not
allowed more than 15 fantasy points to any quarterback since all
the way back in Week 7. During that stretch, no quarterback has
even thrown for multiple touchdowns against them. That includes
games against Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning. It just doesn't
get much worse than this from a fantasy matchup standpoint, so
all members of your Arizona Cardinals passing game should remain
on your fantasy bench here in Week 15.
Running Game Thoughts: A hip pointer
knocked Andre Ellington out of the Cardinals' Week 13 contest
against the Falcons and then held him out for the entirety of
Week 14. There was some optimism that he might be able to return
at some point this season, even if it were in the playoffs, but
that has now been ruled out as the Cardinals officially placed
Ellington on season-ending IR this week. This is a brutal hit
to an already struggling Arizona offense as they hope to get things
back on track. Perhaps the extraordinarily high touch total finally
took its toll on Ellington, but now fantasy owners will be without
one of the top running backs in the league as they hope to close
out their fantasy championship seasons. With Ellington out, most
expected that it would be Marion Grice or even Stefan Taylor who
would get the majority of the touches out of the backfield for
the Cardinals, but it was instead Kerwynn Williams who carried
the ball 19 times in the Cardinals' gutsy win over the Chiefs
in Week 14. Williams would take those 19 carries for 100 yards
on the ground; an impressive performance for his first real opportunity
to play in this backfield. This would be an inspiring fantasy
tidbit if the Cardinals weren't up against one of the league's
best defenses, the St. Louis Rams.
The Rams have held opposing running games to fewer than 70 rushing
yards in seven of their 13 games this season, including three
games where they held teams to fewer than 30 rushing yards. They're
coming off of their most dominant defensive game of the season
when they allowed Alfred Morris to rush for just 14 yards on nine
carries. If Williams performs here in Week 15, we may consider
utilizing him on fantasy rosters in Weeks 16 and 17, but unless
you're in a desperate situation where you just need carries from
the running back position, Williams should be on your bench for
this matchup.
Projections:
Drew Stanton: 240 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Kerwynn Williams: 50 rush yds
Jaron Brown: 55 rec yds
John Brown: 45 rec yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 40 rec yds
Michael Floyd: 30 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: In what has turned out to be a lost season
for the Rams, there is still plenty of fight left on this team.
Back-to-back shutouts by the St. Louis defense have allowed the
offense to play much more conservatively than they did earlier
in the year, but that hasn't kept them from being productive from
a fantasy standpoint. In fact, Shaun Hill threw for multiple touchdowns
in both contests; the first time he had done so in back-to-back
games so far this season. His yardage totals since taking over
as the Rams' starter haven't been particularly exciting but he
hasn't really needed them, especially in the two shutout victories.
The team still doesn't seem to have a go-to receiving option,
but it's worth noting that second-year wideout Tavon Austin has
been making more plays as of late. While they have primarily been
in the running and kick return game, it's at least nice to see
the first round pick they invested in him paying off to some extent.
The team's top target, however, has instead been Stedman Bailey.
Over his past three games, Bailey has made 14 catches for 236
yards and a touchdown. Those numbers don't make him a must-start
for fantasy purposes, but they do make him someone who fantasy
owners could consider taking a chance on in this surprisingly
good matchup.
Arizona's defense has been good for most of the season, but they've
struggled as of late, particularly against opposing wide receivers.
In fact, they've conceded a total of 470 yards and a touchdown
on 33 receptions to opposing wideouts. Arizona also remains very
poor against opposing tight ends as they have given up two touchdowns
and over 200 receiving yards to opposing tight ends over their
past three games. Jared Cook actually punished this very defense
for 84 yards and a touchdown just a few weeks ago when these teams
met, so giving him a chance here in Week 15 isn't necessarily
too bad of an idea.
Running Game Thoughts: St. Louis'
offense hasn't given us much to look forward to for 2015. The
carousel at the quarterback position, the injuries and general
incompetence from the wide receiver position and mediocre performances
from the offensive line have been tough to watch. But as the team
battles its way through the remainder of the season, perhaps the
one thing we can be excited about is the progression of rookie
running back Tre Mason. Mason started the season as the third
string back behind Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham but has since
become the team's starting running back and has certainly performed
well given the situation. Over his past four games, Mason has
gone off for 432 total yards of offense and become a reliable
RB2 for fantasy owners in a season where that has been tough to
come by. This has primarily been due to the high workload the
team has trusted him with. Even in games that they've lost, the
Rams have still made it a point to give Mason the football. He
has touched the ball at least 17 times in six straight contests.
Unfortunately, there is some reason to be worried here in Week
15 as the Rams host the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals have given up the second-fewest fantasy points per
games to opposing running backs this season. That includes a Week
10 game against Mason when they held him to just 48 yards rushing
on 14 carries. That game, however, took place on the road where
Mason has been significantly less effective. At home, Mason has
been a monster. In his three home starts since becoming the Rams'
feature tailback, he has produced 363 total yards of offense with
four total touchdowns. It's tough to expect Mason to continue
that kind of pace in this very difficult matchup, but given the
lack of players who are likely to touch the ball more than him,
Mason should and will likely be in most fantasy lineups here in
Week 15.
Projections:
Shaun Hill: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Tre Mason: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Stedman Bailey: 75 rec yds
Kenny Britt: 40 rec yds
Tavon Austin: 20 rec yds, 20 rush yds
Jared Cook: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Rams 20, Cardinals 16
^ Top
Steelers at Falcons
- (Smith)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger threw for 350 yards and
three touchdowns last week against the Bengals, and with two consecutive
games of 25 or more fantasy points has crept into the top-five
in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks. He throws to the most productive
receiver in the NFL, Antonio Brown, who already has 105 catches
and leads all wideouts in fantasy scoring. And after a two-game
lull, receiver Martavis Bryant resurfaced with over 100 yards
and a score against Cincinnati. Each player should be starting
for fantasy owners this week against a Falcons team that is one
of the worst in the NFL defending the pass.
Atlanta is tied for fifth-fewest passing scores given up this
season but no team in the league has allowed more yards through
the air. They’ve allowed the third-fewest fantasy points
in the NFL to tight ends and are 14th in fantasy points surrendered
to quarterbacks but have been hammered by wideouts. Just three
teams have yielded more fantasy points to receivers than the Falcons,
who have allowed an opposing wideout to gain 120 or more yards
in four of their last six contests.
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell hasn’t had the
type of season running the ball that DeMarco Murray has, but due
to Bell’s prowess as a receiver, he is only slightly behind
Murray in fantasy scoring. Bell has amassed at least 220 total
yards in three straight contests, has scored four times on the
ground in his last three games, and gets to face Atlanta this
week, who routinely lets running backs traverse into the end zone.
The Falcons have the league’s 21st-ranked run defense and
no squad has given up more rushing scores. They also allow running
backs to prosper as receivers, having surrendered the fifth-most
receiving yards in the league to players at that position. Add
it all up and you have an Atlanta squad that has allowed the most
fantasy points in the league to opposing running backs.
Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 335 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Le’Veon
Bell: 105 rush yds, 2 TD, 40 rec yds
Antonio Brown: 115 rec yds, 2 TD
Martavis Bryant: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Markus Wheaton: 35 rec yds
Lance Moore: 30 rec yds
Heath Miller: 20 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan’s mid-season disappearing
act certainly hurt his fantasy owners, but he’s been making
up for lost time recently. Ryan has topped 350 passing yards and
at least 20 fantasy points for two consecutive games, each of
which are firsts for him this season. Unfortunately, he may not
have Julio Jones this week due to a hip injury. Roddy White should
be good to go however, and though he’s not piling up yards,
White does have three touchdowns over his last five games and
is a good play against Pittsburgh.
The Steelers are 23rd in the NFL in pass defense and have permitted
more passing scores than all but three other teams. They’ve
given up the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the
13th-most to wideouts, but have been shredded by receivers recently,
with Kenny Stills amassing 162 yards and a score in Week 13 and
A.J. Green going for 224 yards and a touchdown last week. Pittsburgh’s
also allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends, and
has allowed a player at that position to score a touchdown in
six consecutive games.
Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson’s touchdown against
the Packers last week was his fourth score in six games, but he
managed just 50 rushing yards in the contest. His fantasy value
this week – and pretty much every week – depends entirely
on whether or not he can find the end zone, and that doesn’t
seem like a probability versus this Steelers defense.
Pittsburgh’s been far more successful defending the run
than the pass, ranking ninth in the NFL in rush defense and tied
for 15th in rushing scores permitted. They’ve given up the
12th-fewest fantasy points in the NFL to running backs, and from
Week 8 on, only one back has managed to gain more than 51 yards
against them.
Projections:
Matt Ryan: 270 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Steven Jackson: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Julio Jones: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Roddy White: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Harry Douglas: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Levine Toilolo: 15 rec yds
Prediction: Steelers 35, Falcons 24 ^ Top
Texans at Colts
- (Smith)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick and his receiving crew
didn’t do very much last week against the Jaguars, but they
didn’t have to considering the way they ran the ball. Still,
it was a disappointment for the fantasy owners of DeAndre Hopkins
(really the only fantasy-worthy Texan in the passing game), who
had just 49 yards on four receptions. Andre Johnson may not suit
up this week due to a concussion, but he’s been off fantasy
radars for a while now anyway. Hopkins does not have a good match-up
with the Colts, but should be considered a WR2 because there are
precious few other options for Houston in the passing game.
Indianapolis is 22nd in the league in pass defense and tied for
14th in passing touchdowns given up. They’re in the middle
of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks
but have surrendered the fifth-fewest points in the NFL to wideouts.
Where the Colts have struggled is against tight ends, as only
three teams have allowed more fantasy points to players at that
position, but the Texans do not offer a legitimate fantasy option
at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: Arian Foster ran for 127 yards and a touchdown
last week against Jacksonville and continues to be a week-in,
week-out RB1. There isn’t a whole lot to discuss this week
concerning Foster. He faces an Indianapolis team that is among
the most generous in the league to opposing running backs, and
against whom he had 109 yards and two rushing scores in Week 6.
The Colts have the league’s 13th-ranked run defense, but
are tied for 23rd in rushing touchdowns surrendered. They’ve
allowed more receiving yards to running backs than any other team
in the NFL, and that, combined with the amount of scores they’ve
given up, is why Indy has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points
in the league to running backs despite a solid ranking against
the run.
Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Arian Foster: 95 rush yds, 2 TD, 25 rec yds
DeAndre Hopkins: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Johnson: 55 rec yds
Ryan Griffin: 20 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck has committed a rash of turnovers
lately, with at least two in each of his last three games, but
still leads planet earth in fantasy scoring. There should be no
worries about him from fantasy owners, and the same can be said
about T.Y. Hilton. The wideout had a season-high 10 receptions
last week for 150 yards, scored twice, and now has seven touchdowns
in his last eight games. Coby Fleener has also played well of
late, though that has come at the expense of fellow tight end
Dwayne Allen. Unfortunately, neither has a particularly good match-up
this week against a Houston team that is very good against tight
ends despite poor overall rankings in pass defense.
The Texans are ranked 28th in the NFL against the pass and are
tied for 21st in passing touchdowns allowed. Those are poor rankings,
but the team has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points in the
league to tight ends and the 12th-fewest points to quarterbacks,
having not allowed multiple touchdown throws by a single quarterback
in their last four games. Houston still has issues against wide
receivers however, and has given up the second-most fantasy points
in the league to players at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: Trent Richardson had only 30 rushing yards
last week on just seven carries, marking the fourth time in five
games he’s taken less than 10 handoffs. When Ahmad Bradshaw
was healthy, he was the more productive of the Colts’ running
back duo, and the same is true for Daniel Herron. “Boom”
isn’t setting any records, and it hasn’t helped that
he’s fumbled twice in three games, but he has amassed at
least 70 total yards in each of his last three contests.
Houston is 15th in the league in run defense but is tied for third-fewest
rushing scores allowed this season. Some early-season struggles
have tainted their fantasy numbers a bit, as the Texans have given
up the 14th-fewest fantasy points to running backs, but have been
stronger lately than that number might indicate, because since
Week 6, just two runners have managed to gain more than 61 yards
against them.
Projections:
Andrew Luck: 320 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Dan Herron: 45 rush yds, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Trent Richardson: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 110 rec yds, 2 TD
Reggie Wayne: 60 rec yds
Donte Moncrief: 35 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 45 rec yds
Dwayne Allen: 15 rec yds
Prediction: Colts 27, Texans 21 ^ Top
Buccaneers at Panthers
- (Smith)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Since his return as a starter, Josh McCown
has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his five games.
Unfortunately, he’s also committed multiple turnovers in
three of his five games. He’ll continue to be the team’s
starter, which means he should continue to find Mike Evans and
Vincent Jackson. Evans has failed to reach 50 yards in three consecutive
games, but has three touchdowns in those games and eight scores
in his last six contests. Jackson had a season-high 159 yards
last week against Detroit, and has 115 or more yards twice in
his last three games, but still has just two touchdowns this year
and none since Week 4. Both Tampa wideouts have a spot in fantasy
lineups this week, but Evans remains ahead of Jackson in the pecking
order as they take on the Panthers.
Carolina is 16th in the league in pass defense and tied for 21st
in passing touchdowns permitted. They’ve given up the 13th-fewest
fantasy points in the NFL to tight ends but have allowed the ninth-most
points to quarterbacks and the 11th-most to wide receivers. However,
it should be noted that the Panthers have done better against
wideouts in their last few games, having held each receiver they’ve
faced over that time to 75 or fewer yards.
Running Game Thoughts: Bobby Rainey’s
injury forced him to miss last week’s game against the Lions,
which opened things up for Doug Martin, right? Uh, wrong. Martin
had all of five carries for 22 yards and a single reception which
went for zero yards. Fantasy owners should avoid Martin against
a Carolina team that has improved against the run from where they
were at the beginning of the year.
The Panthers rank 19th in the NFL against the run and are 23rd
in rushing scores allowed. They’ve surrendered the 11th-most
fantasy points in the league to opposing running backs, but have
improved in this area recently. From Week 7 on, just one running
back has managed to surpass 65 rushing yards when facing Carolina,
and they haven’t allowed a back to score in three straight
games.
Projections:
Josh
McCown: 205 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Doug
Martin: 35 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Mike
Evans: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Vincent
Jackson: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Louis
Murphy: 30 rec yds
Luke
Stocker: 20 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton was injured in a car accident
this week, which will open the door for Derek Anderson to start.
Anderson last started in Week 1, against the Buccaneers, and threw
for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’s not necessarily
the guy fantasy owners want starting for them in the fantasy playoffs,
but in a pinch he should at least be serviceable. There are a
couple of Panthers who should be starting this week, including
rookie Kelvin Benjamin, who started his career off with a bang
against Tampa by picking up 92 yards and a score in Week 1. Tight
end Greg Olsen had 72 yards and a touchdown last week and has
moved ahead of Jimmy Graham into second in fantasy scoring at
his position. He compiled 83 yards and a touchdown against Tampa
in Week 1 and should be in fantasy lineups this week against the
same team.
The Buccaneers are 24th in the league in pass defense and tied
for 26th in passing touchdowns surrendered. They’re a middle
of the road team in terms of fantasy points given up to tight
ends, but have allowed the 12th-most points in the league to quarterbacks
and the sixth-most points to wide receivers. From Week 9 on, Tampa
has allowed double-digit fantasy points to a wideout in all but
one of their games.
Running Game Thoughts: DeAngelo
Williams did not play last week for the Panthers, and that meant
Jonathan Stewart got the bulk of the carries. He responded with
155 yards and a touchdown on 20 totes, including a 69-yard scamper.
It was unknown at the time of this writing if Williams would play
this week, but if he doesn’t, Stewart should be considered
a RB2 against the Buccaneers and their pliable run defense.
Tampa Bay is 20th in the NFL against the run and 22nd in rushing
scores given up. Though they’ve only allowed one running
back to gain at least 100 yards this season, plenty have gotten
close. In fact, over their last nine games, the Bucs have allowed
a back to pick up at least 80 yards seven different times. They’ve
also allowed running backs to score five times via reception this
year, which is another reason why the team has surrendered the
eighth-most fantasy points in the league to players at that position.
Projections:
Derek
Anderson: 245 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Jonathan
Stewart: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Kelvin
Benjamin: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Philly
Brown: 40 rec yds
Jerricho
Cotchery: 25 rec yds
Greg
Olsen: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Panthers 21, Buccaneers
17 ^ Top
Jets at Titans
- (Smith)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Geno Smith managed 254 yards through the
air last week against the Vikings, which was his second-highest
total of the season. Yet he threw just one score and has thrown
multiple touchdowns in just one game this season. Smith’s
best target last week was Percy Harvin, who had 124 yards, but
was injured and reports are suggesting he won’t be able
to suit up this week. That leaves Eric Decker as the team’s
top option, and while he did have 89 yards last week (a season-high),
he’s a less-than-reliable option for fantasy owners. Even
against a struggling Tennessee pass defense, fantasy owners should
continue to ignore all Jets involved in the passing game.
The Titans are 19th in the NFL against the pass and tied for 21st
in passing scores allowed. For the season they are a middle of
the pack team (ranked between 13th and 19th) in terms of fantasy
points allowed to quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends,
but that’s hardly a reflection of their recent play. Tennessee
was lit up by Ryan Fitzpatrick for six touchdowns two weeks ago,
has allowed a touchdown to a tight end in two of their last three
games, and has surrendered 130 or more yards to a wideout in each
of their last two contests.
Running Game Thoughts: Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson each got
16 carries last week, with Ivory picking up 73 yards and Johnson
managing 53. Ivory leads the team in rushing yards and rushing
touchdowns, but he hasn’t found the end zone since Week
8. However, there’s nothing like facing the Titans to reverse
your running woes. They are a simply terrible run defense, and
though Ivory is a bit of a gamble, it’s one worth taking
for fantasy owners.
Tennessee has the single-worst run defense in the entire NFL and
only three teams have given up more rushing scores. They’ve
given up the second-most fantasy points in the league to running
backs, and have been destroyed on the ground since the mid-point
of the season. In their six games from Week 8 on, the Titans have
allowed five different running backs to gain at least 100 rushing
yards, four backs to pick up at least 130, and two backs to break
150 yards.
Projections:
Geno Smith: 145 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Chris Ivory: 85 rush yds, 1 TD
Chris Johnson: 50 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Eric Decker: 55 rec yds
Jeremy Kerley: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeff Cumberland: 20 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Zach Mettenberger is out with an injury,
which means Jake Locker is in at quarterback for the Titans. Neither
quarterback is worthy being on fantasy rosters, but it does mean
an uptick in value for tight end Delanie Walker. He was essentially
the only Titans pass-catcher worthy of being in fantasy lineups
anyway, and he was more productive with Locker. Now Walker gets
to face a team that cannot keep tight ends out of the end zone,
making him a clear fantasy starter this week versus the Jets.
New York is 15th in the league in pass defense but only Chicago
has permitted more passing touchdowns. The Jets have the league’s
worst touchdown-to-interception ratio defensively, with 29 passing
scores allowed and only five interceptions, and it shows. They’ve
given up the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the fifth-most
fantasy points (and most touchdowns) to tight ends, and the 10th-most
fantasy points to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Bishop Sankey had 25 yards last week on
nine carries and continues to be wholly irrelevant in any way
despite being the team’s lead back. To be fair, he doesn’t
get a bunch of touches, with double-digit carries in just seven
of 13 games this year. Maybe he’s the Titans future at running
back and maybe not – what we do know is he’s not the
present for fantasy owners against New York or any other team.
The Jets have been far better against the run than the pass this
season, ranking fifth in the league in run defense and tied for
seventh in rushing scores allowed. Though they have allowed three
rushing scores to running backs over their last three games, New
York has limited the damage done on the ground by those backs.
Over their last seven games, they’ve allowed just one runner
to break 60 yards, and that was the Chiefs’ Jamaal Charles
in Week 9, who had 78 yards on 20 carries.
Projections:
Jake Locker: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Bishop Sankey: 45 rush yds
Kendall Wright: 60 rec yds
Nate Washington: 45 rec yds
Derek Hagan: 25 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Jets 17, Titans 13 ^ Top
Redskins at Giants
- (Thorne)
Passing
Game Thoughts: As of Friday morning the Redskins still
don’t officially know who their quarterback is going to
be this weekend, but pending medical clearance QB Colt McCoy (neck)
is expected to once again earn the start. He will be evaluated
Friday to determine if he’s at risk of further injury after
being hurt in the fourth quarter last week, but after participating
in practice on a limited basis Coach Jay Gruden says he expects
McCoy to be the man under center. In the event McCoy is held out,
QB Robert Griffin III will be tapped to start, and he would also
be the first to fill in if McCoy starts but needs to be pulled
for one reason or another. Regardless of who the quarterback is,
Washington has larger injury concerns as WR DeSean Jackson (shin)
is optimistically listed as Questionable and has yet to demonstrate
he can run at full speed. He will likely be a game time decision,
but chances are he won’t play a major role, if any, in the
Week 15 matchup. His absence was a contributing factor to the
team being shut out last week, but that did allow WR Pierre Garcon
to post his first 90-yard game since the third week of the season.
While the involvement of Jackson will necessarily and inversely
affect Garcon on Sunday, the quarterback under center will likely
play a large role in the degree of involvement for TE Jordan Reed.
He has seen at least seven targets in each of the games started
by McCoy, and only once in the other five games has he been thrown
at more than six times. Especially with Jackson limited or even
unavailable, a McCoy start could lead to a big day for Reed, but
until the starting quarterback is determined it will be important
to have a backup plan in place at the tight end position.
All it took for New York to earn a win in Week 14 was for them
to play a team worse than them, and considering their opponent
this weekend also has a worse record than they do, it’s
possible the Giants pick up their second win in as many contests
and almost guarantee that they won’t finish at the bottom
of the NFC East. Their 11th ranked pass defense, and eighth in
completion percentage allowed, will benefit from any uncertainties
or absences which affect the Redskins passing game. In their Week
4 matchup, which was started by the only Washington quarterback
not in line to see the field this weekend, the Giants forced four
interceptions and held all wide receivers to less than 30 yards.
The only players to surpass that total were a tight end and a
backup running back, neither of whom figure to have an appreciable
role in the second game of this season series. In addition to
being stingy with respect to yardage, New York ranks in the top
ten for both of touchdowns allowed and interceptions forced, making
them one of the top all-around pass defenses in the league, and
giving the Redskins yet another reason to worry about their aerial
attack this weekend.
Running Game Thoughts: In many respects the Redskins have a reasonably
effective rushing attack that is painfully underutilized. Despite
ranking above average in both yards per carry and touchdowns scored,
Washington barely escapes the bottom ten for yards gained per
game, a byproduct of having more rushing attempts than just six
other teams. Mostly because they tend to frequently be playing
from behind, being forced to throw the ball to try to catch up,
Redskins leading ball carrier RB Alfred Morris has attempted 20
or more rushes only four times this season and has never been
given more than 23 carries in a single game. Despite that he still
ranks as a top ten fantasy running back, almost entirely due to
his consistent availability and the fact that he’s the primary
rusher for a team that has stumbled their way into the endzone
eleven times this season, seven by Morris. Beyond him only one
non-quarterback is averaging six or more rushing yards per game,
but the dynamic between him and the scrambling abilities of both
McCoy and Griffin tend to open up favorable running lanes for
the Redskins top ball carrier.
Finding running room has been something most opponents of the
Giants have been able to do, as they rank as the third worst in
yards allowed per game and the second worst in yards allowed per
rush. They’re only slightly better at keeping ball carriers
out of the endzone, tied for seventh worst, and though they’ve
surrendered 11 scores on the ground they’ve given up just
one receiving touchdown to running backs this season, which mercifully
helps them rank as the tenth most permissive defense with respect
to fantasy points allowed to running backs. The fact that they’ve
been pretty good against passes out of the backfield should affect
Morris little, as for the entire season he’s caught just
15 passes in 13 contests. Through the last eight games, covering
their seven straight losses and the win last week, New York held
just one opponent to fewer than 95 rushing yards and yielded an
average of 157 yards per game, surrendering seven rushing touchdowns
during that span. With the rest of the offense struggling it isn’t
terribly likely that Morris will hit that total all by himself,
but with contributions from several rushers it’s probable
that the Redskins comfortably crack triple digits on the ground.
Projections:
Colt McCoy: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 15 rush yds
Alfred Morris: 85 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 80 rec yds
Andre Roberts: 45 rec yds
Jordan Reed: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: While the Giants have finally snapped their
losing streak, QB Eli Manning has yet to fully snap out of the
funk he’s been in for nearly as long as the streak itself.
Prior to their win last week New York hadn’t won since the
fifth week of the season, but for at least the first two contests
after the Week 8 bye, Manning was putting forth admirable performances
even in defeat. In that pair of games ne threw for five touchdowns,
no interceptions, and 607 yards; in the five games since then
he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in just one contest and
avoided interceptions just once as well. The only game which the
Giants have won in that time was the matchup against the worst
team they faced, the same game where Manning had the least impact
on the contest. When the apparent recipe for success calls for
the two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback to do as little as
possible, the passing game is certainly in a sad state. The diamond
amidst all that rough is rookie WR Odell Beckham Jr., who has
six straight games with 90 or more receiving yards, including
three with 130 or more, and he’s also score three touchdowns
in those six games. No other pass catchers has more than one game
with more than 60 receiving yards during that span, though WR
Preston Parker and TE Larry Donnell each have a pair of scores
in the last six game, each of whom are slowing edging WR Rueben
Randle out of the offense.
Since their bye four weeks ago the Redskins have been averaging
282 passing yards allowed per game and have conceded ten passing
touchdowns during that time, so while they may rank in the top
12 for the season, their recent performances are putting that
in serious jeopardy. One area where Washington has been deficient
all year has been in forcing interceptions, with only five to
their credit through 13 games this season. They’ve also
allowed the third most touchdowns through the air, a shortcoming
which has only been exacerbated in the latest quartet of contests.
Furthermore, their ranking near the middle of the sack table is
all but fraudulent, with half of their 28 sacks coming in the
first five games of the season, and ten of those coming in a Week
2 blowout victory. In their first meeting with New York, Manning
was sacked only once and tossed one interception, but he threw
for four touchdowns and tallied 300 passing yards, in what would
kick off the Redskins prolonged stretch as the divisional cellar
dwellers.
Running Game Thoughts: The single most critical fantasy battle
of this Week 14 contest may not be between the teams themselves,
but rather between RB Rashad Jennings (ankle) and the Giants willingness
to allow him to handle a full workload. Despite being available
last week rookie RB Andre Williams was given the start and racked
up 27 total touches for 147 yards and a score, compared to just
three touches for 22 yards for the veteran. Coach Tom Coughlin
stated that he expects to increase the workload for Jennings against
the Redskins but stopped short of declaring him the starter to
asserting how many touches he’s likely to see. Since Williams
played so well last week, albeit against a horrendous run defense,
the rookie could steal touches from Jennings or even delay his
return to the field by another week. Fantasy owners are hoping
for anything but a time share, with Jennings clearly having the
better upside, but unless some clarity is provided before game
time then both runners carry appreciable risk. With the Giants
fighting for little other than pride there seems to be little
reason to risk the health of their top running back, but against
a divisional rival most reasonable sensibilities can be tossed
aside for the sake of pride, especially in from of the home crowd.
Regardless of who the ball carrier has been, at this point in
the season New York can’t even crack the top 20 in rushing
rankings, though their 11 touchdowns ties them for a top seven
spot. Averaging just over 103 yards per game puts them right in
line with what Washington allows on a weekly basis; their mark
of 105 yards against ranks them as the 11th best run defense,
and with eight touchdowns allowed that ties them for a spot in
the top ten. After their bye in Week 10 the Redskins defense played
a pair of stellar games against the run, yielding just 114 rushing
yards combined in those two contests. In the two weeks following
that though Washington has allowed 125 rushing yards or more in
each game, more than twice as many yards as they allowed in the
games prior. Though the Redskins haven’t won any of those
four contests, the two games where they were best against the
run were the ones where they lost by the slimmest margins. Presumably,
if they’re able to limit the Giants on the ground then they
should at least be able to make the game competitive, and even
though they might not emerge victorious, at least they won’t
be blown out by New York for the second time this season.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 230 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Rashad Jennings: 40 rush yds, 15 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Williams: 45 rush yds
Odell Beckham Jr.: 110 rec yds, 1 TD
Preston Parker: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Donnell: 25 rec yds
Prediction: Giants 27, Redskins 17 ^ Top
Dolphins at Patriots
- (Thorne)
Passing
Game Thoughts: After an uninspiring loss in Week 14 the
Dolphins are all but eliminated from the playoff picture. Though
mathematically they are still alive, they’re a game out
of the second Wildcard spot with only three left to play, and
the teams in front of Miami own tiebreakers over them in addition
to having an easier schedule. Much like in the standings, the
Dolphins have a difficult time making strides in the game as well,
especially through the air. Only one of the passing touchdowns
has come from outside of 20 yards, with QB Ryan Tannehill throwing
20 of his 21 scores from the redzone. In each of the last six
games the Miami signal caller has completed over 69.5% of his
passes but has not gained 40 yards on any single play. In three
of the last six games Tannehill threw for one or zero touchdowns,
and only once during that sextet of contests has he thrown for
more than 240 yards. Continuing the trend established in Week
9, rookie WR Jarvis Landry once again outperformed veteran WR
Mike Wallace, with the former catching three more passes for 16
more yards, increasing his margin for both statistics over the
last six weeks. Beyond those two receivers, and low-ceiling TE
Charles Clay, the passing game is spread too thin to count on
consistent contributions from anyone else.
Unlike their Week 1 matchup, the revenge game of this series
will be played in Foxboro and will include the previously-suspended
CB Brandon Browner; both factors will heavily favor the Patriots.
The deciding factor at the beginning of the season wasn’t
in the aerial attack, but because the ground game was so effective
New England was unable to pressure Tannehill and surrendered two
scores compared to just one each of sacks and interceptions. With
both Browner and CB Darrelle Revis available to neutralize the
top two Miami receiving threats, the front seven will be much
more able to focus on the run and to fabricate a pass rush. On
the season the Dolphins passing game barely escapes the bottom
third of the league and consistently represents no real deep threat,
encouraging the secondary to play tight man coverage and counting
on the receivers to create space for themselves. Against a better
than average New England pass defense, Tannehill will likely be
challenged both through the air and at the line of scrimmage.
Running Game Thoughts: The Miami rushing attack peaked early
this season, as in the first game of the season. Hardly a coincidence,
the planned starter (Knowhson Moreno) played in only one complete
game before being sent to Injured Reserve; that too was the first
game of the season. After a slow decline the Dolphins have found
themselves averaging fewer than 82 yards per game on the ground
over the last five contests, and during that time they haven’t
beaten a team currently in legitimate playoff contention. The
leader of the lackluster backfield is RB Lamar Miller, and though
he’s only surpassed 80 rushing yards twice this year and
has scored just seven total touchdowns, he still ranks as the
12th best fantasy running back. Since players ranked 13-17 are
either on Injured Reserve, missed time earlier this season, or
only saw garbage time work until the midpoint of the season, Miller
can safely be called the least inspiring of the running backs
who have been on the field for the entire season. While in the
NFL the biggest part of ability is availability, for fantasy football
his pedestrian weekly contributions have likely hurt owners more
than they’ve helped. Miller has scored only once in the
past five weeks and has just one 100-yard game to his name this
season; in the fantasy playoffs there is minimal use for a running
back who isn’t likely to earn double digit points during
this most critical time.
Considering that New England hasn’t allowed a touchdown
to a running back since Week 9, on the ground or through the air,
the chances of Miller finding the endzone, and thus buoying his
fantasy value, are incredibly slim. This season the Patriots are
allowing an average of 106 yards per game, but in the four weeks
since their bye that number has dropped to 73, and only one team
has hit triple digits. Despite losing a key linebacker, New England
has improved against the run over the latter half of the season,
which correlates with the addition of Browner to the active roster.
In the seven games with him active, the Patriots are 6-1, with
their only loss coming on the road against a divisional leader.
In the six games without him they were 4-2; both losses were to
teams all but certain to miss the playoffs. The physical style
of defense Browner brings to the passing game tends to free up
a safety or linebacker to help in run defense, and with adjustments
made during the bye in Week 10 the Patriots seem to have found
the right balance to stop both phases of the offense. The Dolphins
run game is fading away as the run defense of New England is growing
stronger, neither of which should evoke optimism for Miami.
Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Lamar Miller: 50 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Damien Williams: 5 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 45 rec yds
Jarvis Landry: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Charles Clay: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Though on the road QB Tom Brady has been
noticeably less proficient, from the friendly confines of Gillette
Stadium the Patriots signal caller has thrown for 17 touchdowns
and only two interceptions while averaging 304 yards through the
air. These performances have helped lead New England to an unblemished
home record and have given them the inside track for the number
one overall AFC playoff spot. Even with the discrepancies between
home and away games, Brady has led the Patriots to a top seven
ranking in passing yards, top four in touchdowns thrown, and the
fewest interceptions for any team with more than 435 passing attempts
(league average is 456). Of the teams averaging 250 yards or more
through the air, New England has the lowest average number of
yards gained per pass, suggesting that even without big plays
Brady is still able to move the ball down the field with relative
ease. There are three Patriots pass catchers who average more
than 55 receiving yards per game, and have scored at least three
touchdowns, recorded six or more gains of at least 20 yards, and
converted at least 40 first downs. Leading the way in all categories
is TE Rob Gronkowski, with WR Brandon LaFell representing the
deep threat and WR Julian Edelman being the more frequently utilized
possession target. Any given Sunday may see a game plan which
seeks to bring other pass catchers into focus, but with two top
25 receivers and the number one overall tight end by a considerable
margin, these three are by far the most fantasy relevant.
If the Dolphins are going to complete the season sweep they’re
going to need to find a way to prevent Brady from recording his
tenth straight multi-score game, and with a withering secondary
that seems to be an unlikely proposition. The latest casualty
is S Louis Delmas (ACL), who was placed on Injured Reserve earlier
this week. Though the return of CB Cortland Finnegan (ankle) after
missing four games will provide a significant boost, he figures
to do little in the way of limiting Gronkowski. With a deep threat,
a shifty slot receiver, and perhaps the greatest physical mismatch
in the NFL all running through the secondary, Miami will have
its hands full regardless of how they decide to match up. In the
most recent contest, at home, the Dolphins allowed the 15th ranked
passing attack to score twice and gain nearly 270 yards through
the air; Miami also surrendered a rushing score to the quarterback.
Though the Dolphins have grown accustomed to facing top tier signal
callers they have yet to beat a top ten fantasy quarterback since
the upset in Week 1 which was dominated by the running game. With
the Patriots at full health and Miami at anything but, the second
leg of this season series will be significantly less kind to the
Dolphins.
Running Game Thoughts: Where Brady tends to be most dangerous
is in the play action game, which means when the rushing attack
gets going then he can do the most damage to a defense. With a
below average ground game New England hasn’t been able to
force many opponents to respect the run for most of the season,
but since their bye the Patriots have shown a dedication to the
rushing attack even if it hasn’t been the most productive.
Following the monstrous 246 yards performance in Week 11, New
England has yet to top 90 yards but have gained no fewer than
84, recording three rushing scores from those three contests.
Since being acquired by the team RB LeGarrette Blount has been
the unquestioned workhorse of the New England backfield, receiving
60% of all carries and gaining 77% of the rushing yards; he has
been given more touches in each of his games with the Patriots
than in any of his games on his previous team, making him one
of the best late-season fantasy finds from the waiver wire.
Even though New England averages just 109 rushing yards per game,
and has been noticeably below that during their latest trio of
contests, a matchup with the Dolphins figures to put their rushing
woes behind them. After being decidedly above average against
the run for the majority of the season, Miami has allowed 661
rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground in its past three
games, surrendering more than 175 yards in each contest. During
that time the leading running back has averaged at least 5.5 yards
per carry and has either found the endzone or broken 100 yards.
In the last three contests no first or second string ball carrier
has averaged fewer than 3.9 yards per attempt, and five different
ball carriers averaged at least 5.5 yards per carry with a minimum
of five touches. Miami has been dominated at the line of scrimmage,
and their deficiencies on the ground have allowed opposing quarterbacks
to take advantage of the defense as they overcommit to stopping
the run. Only the league’s worst passing attack failed to
score fewer than two passing touchdowns in addition to dominating
the ground game. With Blount in the backfield and Brady under
center, the Dolphins are at risk of being blown out in all phases
of the game.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 320 pass yds, 3 TDs, 10 rush yds
LeGarrette Blount: 85 rush yds, 1 TD
Shane Vereen: 10 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Julian Edelman: 65 rec yds
Brandon LaFell: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Rob Gronkowski: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Patriots 31, Dolphins 10 ^ Top
Packers at Bills
- (Thorne)
Passing
Game Thoughts: If ever there was a model of offensive efficiency,
QB Aaron Rodgers may very well be it. He has committed the fewest
turnovers of any quarterback, has the greatest yards per attempt
average in the league, and despite not leading in either yardage
or touchdowns he is the second highest scoring fantasy quarterback.
By limiting mistakes the Green Bay signal caller has rewritten
the history books with the greatest touchdown to interception
ratio and the lowest career interception percentage. Having two
top flight pass catchers certainly doesn’t hurt, with WRs
Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb each hauling in double-digit touchdown
catches this season and averaging better than 75 yards per game;
both are top ten fantasy receivers. Though a “chicken verses
egg” could be made it’s hard to argue against the
collective greatness of the passing game with Rodgers as the unquestioned
leader of the Packers offense. With so many touchdowns and big
plays there are a number of pass catchers who get involved in
the aerial attack, though one has started to separate himself
from the remainder of the pack. WR Davante Adams has recorded
70 yards or scored a touchdown in six of the last nine games,
but with Nelson and Cobb frequently seeing the lion’s share
of opportunities it’s hard to suggest the team’s third
receiver makes for a viable fantasy play.
Since their bye in Week 9 the Packers have rattled off five straight
wins, though four of those games came at home. The closest of
those contests, and the one in which Green Bay scored the fewest
number of points, was the lone road game during that stretch.
They’re just 3-3 away from Lambeau this season, including
two losses against teams with solid defensive lines, talented
pass rushers, and quality players in the secondary. Those elements
accurately describe the Bills, and while it’s hard to imagine
anyone stopping Rodgers, it’s possible that Week 15 presents
an extra challenge for the most efficient offense in the NFL.
If the Packers are able to win this weekend it will be the first
time that the franchise has won on the road in Buffalo; the Bills
the only franchise to have not lost a home contest to Green Bay.
In order to do so Rodgers and company will have to overcome the
league sack leaders and the only team who has allowed fewer touchdowns
than they’ve forced interceptions. Buffalo hasn’t
surrendered a passing touchdown in three straight games and have
yielded only two through the air in the last six contests. The
Bills may not be able to pull off the win, but at a minimum they’ve
got the talent to force Green Bay to shy away from the aerial
attack, which could possibly be enough to disrupt the fantasy
playoff hopes of anyone relying on Rodgers for another spectacular
outing.
Running Game Thoughts: In addition to being incredibly efficient
through the air, Rodgers is also quite economical with his legs
as well. With fewer than 40 rushing attempts this season he has
17 first downs, the second most of any quarterback, and does the
vast majority of this damaged from scrambles. The primary ball
carrier is RB Eddie Lacy (hip), who is officially listed as Questionable
but all indications are that he’ll be fully able to participate
in the game this weekend; an absence would be his first of the
year. After suffering through a few slow weeks at the beginning
of the season, the second year ball carrier has catapulted himself
toward the top of fantasy rankings. Starting in Week 4, Lacy has
averaged better than one score and 107 yards from scrimmage per
game, and aside from one matchup he has earned at least ten fantasy
points by even the most conservative of scoring systems. Even
with his productivity the Packers are still barely above the league
rushing average for the season, gaining 114 yards per game on
the ground. Other than Lacy only RB James Starks sees the field
with any regularity, and even at that his touches are generally
limited outside of garbage time.
Just as the Bills are equipped to challenge Green Bay through
the air, the other facet of the offense is likely to have an equally
difficult on the ground against the top ten run defense of Buffalo.
The Bills are one of just eight teams to surrender fewer than
100 rushing yards per game, and they also rank in the top ten
for yards allowed per rush. On offense the Packers are in the
top ten for rushing efficiency so the Week 15 matchup should pit
units of even strength against each other, likely resulting in
moderate gains with a handful of impressive stops. Buffalo ranks
in the top quarter for fewest fantasy points allowed to running
backs, so even though Lacy contributes in both phases of the offense,
the Bills have faced similar talent earlier in the season and
were largely able to contain it. Three of the top six fantasy
running backs have challenged the Bills run defense and were held
at or noticeably below their season averages. Considering that
the alternative is encouraging Rodgers to beat them through the
air, Buffalo may be less inclined to totally shut down the Packers
rushing attack, but if they’re able to make Green Bay one
dimensional they should feel confident in their abilities to either
rush the quarterback or prevent Lacy from having a monstrous day
to make up for the hobbled passing attack.
Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs, 20 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 65 rush yds, 20 rec yds
James Starks: 10 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Jordy Nelson: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Randall Cobb: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Andrew Quarless: 25 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Excluding the two games played against the
least imposing pass defense in the league, QB Kyle Orton has thrown
eight touchdowns and seven interceptions in his seven starts this
season. Twice he has gained more than 300 yards, twice he fell
short of 200, and the remaining three times were all north of
250. Putting that all together Orton is generally below average,
sometimes painfully so, but occasionally he’ll put together
a solid stat line. While no one in the fantasy playoffs should
be relying on Orton to bring you to the championship, his top
pass catcher WR Sammy Watkins is likely at the center of a potentially
critical lineup decision. In the seven games started by Orton,
the rookie phenom has topped 120 receiving yards thrice and has
failed to surpass 35 yards on five occasions, ultimately averaging
69 yards per game and pulling in three scores during that time.
However, all of those touchdowns came in consecutive weeks and
Watkins hasn’t visited the endzone in five straight contests.
In addition to going scoreless, Watkins was held to four straight
games at 35 or fewer yards before once again exploding for 127
in the most recent contest. With the inconsistencies of the offense
and Orton not possessing elite arm talent, the rookie pass catcher
is an ill-advised risk outside of desperate fantasy lineup situations.
Even though the Packers were just burned for 259 receiving yards
and a touchdown last week, all to one receiver, there are a number
of reasons why Watkins won’t be able to provide an encore
performance this weekend. To begin, the receiver doing the damage
against Green Bay in Week 14 currently leads the league in receiving
yards; Watkins is barely in the top 25. The passing offense last
week is the fifth most proficient and has attempted the fourth
most throws in the league; Buffalo is very near or just slightly
above the midpoint for the league in those respects. Perhaps most
importantly though, last week the Packers were challenged by an
established veteran receiver and a known playmaker in addition
to the explosive talent who burned them, whereas Buffalo as an
impressive rookie leading the way and a corps of serviceable though
ultimately pedestrian receivers all fighting for the number two
spot. Five different defenses, none of which rank better than
16th against the pass, have been able to keep Watkins from recording
more than three fantasy points, and even with a recently-burned
secondary it can reasonably be assumed that the Packers will find
a way to become the sixth defense to do so.
Running Game Thoughts: In addition to being limited through the
air, the Bills have one of the worst rushing attacks in the league,
ranking in the bottom quarter for yards gained per game as well
as yards gained per attempt. Only three teams have scored fewer
touchdowns on the ground than Buffalo, and two leading rushers
for the Bills have run for only three combined scores this season.
At the head of this reluctant rushing attack is RB Fred Jackson,
who despite appearing in 11 different contests this season has
still yet to surpass 400 rushing yards. Slightly behind him is
RB Anthony Dixon, with a slightly better per carry average but
still fewer than 375 yards on the ground from 10 games in which
he recorded rushing attempts. These two top backs have combined
for 27 rushing first downs through this point in the season, and
though Dixon has limited utility through the air, Jackson has
salvaged his fantasy usefulness by contributing out of the backfield
to the effect of 34 yards per game. Even earning a majority of
the touches, with right at 69 total yards from scrimmage per game
and limited potential to find the endzone, Jackson is little more
than dead weight at the end of a fantasy bench except in the most
grave of situations.
If there’s a silver lining to the poor Bills rushing attack,
it may be that they face Green Bay this weekend. Conventional
wisdom would suggest that Buffalo look to run the ball as frequently
as possible to try to keep the ball away from the Packers high
powered offense. Aiding that cause is a Green Bay run defense
that ranks as the eighth worst in the league, allowing 129 yards
on the ground per game and 4.4 per carry, ranking in the bottom
six. The Packers have yielded 11 rushing touchdowns this season,
more than 20 other teams. While all of these numbers seem to favor
the Bills rushing attack, any optimism still hinges on the Green
Bay offense getting off to a slow start, and their defense generally
trying to prevent the pass rather than load up against the run.
Considering how offensively inept Buffalo has been for most of
the season, combined with the torrid pace the Packers have been
on offensively, betting on the Bills to establish the run game
is a gamble that is likely to leave Jackson fantasy owners wishing
they’d laid their chips elsewhere.
Projections:
Kyle Orton: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs
Fred Jackson: 30 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Anthony Dixon: 25 rush yds, 5 rec yds, 1 TD
Sammy Watkins: 40 rec yds
Robert Woods: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Scott Chandler: 30 rec yds
Prediction: Packers 26, Bills 17 ^ Top
Cowboys at Eagles
- (Thorne)
Passing
Game Thoughts: For as much attention as the rushing attack
has earned this season, the success of the Cowboys has been most
closely linked with the performance of QB Tony Romo. In the three
games which Dallas has lost, Romo has failed to throw multiple
touchdowns, and only once in their nine victories has he fallen
short of that mark. In winning efforts, Romo has recorded 23 touchdowns
and only three interceptions, completing at least 65.5% of his
passes in each contest. Dallas is the only team in the NFL to
be undefeated on the road; every other team has at least two losses
away from home, so even if the Cowboys fall short on Sunday night
they’ll still be the league’s best road team. For
the season Dallas is averaging just 230 passing yards per game
but with 8.2 yards per attempt they’re behind just one other
team. The star of the aerial attack is WR Dez Bryant, with twice
as many receiving yards and nearly twice as many touchdown catches
as any other Dallas pass catcher. His prominence has led to rollercoaster
seasons for the rest of the receiving targets, with WR Terrance
starting hot but nearly disappearing over the past five weeks
and WR Cole Beasley approximately taking his place. Even the steady
TE Jason Witten has been overshadowed by Bryant, but after the
first month of the season Witten has wiggled himself into the
starting conversation in most fantasy leagues.
When these teams met on Thanksgiving Philadelphia held Romo below
200 yards passing, forced two interceptions, recorded four sacks,
and allowed no touchdowns through the air. Only Bryant had a reasonable
day from a fantasy perspective, but with just over 70 yards that
was significantly below his expected output. The Eagles owned
the line of scrimmage and spent much of Thursday afternoon in
the offensive backfield; Dallas has surrendered four sacks only
two other times this season, including another divisional loss
and a sloppy win over one of the worst teams in the league. Though
the Eagles are the second most proficient team at recording sacks,
on the back end they’re one of the worst, allowing 258 passing
yards per game a total of 26 touchdowns through the air this season;
both are easily in the bottom quarter of the league. If the Cowboys
are able to shore up their pass protection for this revenge game,
Bryant and company should be able to run free through the secondary
and make amends for their Thanksgiving shortcomings, all but securing
the NFC East crown in the process.
Running Game Thoughts: Despite being a Cowboy for all four of
his NFL season, RB DeMarco Murray has competed against Philadelphia
only four times, and this will be the first season where he’s
appeared in both of the team’s matchups. In previous entanglements
with this divisional rival, Murray has never gained 85 or more
rushing yards in a single game, and has found the endzone only
twice in those four contests. For this season Murray has been
far and away the league’s leading rusher, having roughly
30% more yards than the next closest ball carrier, and has benefitted
greatly running behind the most heralded offensive line in the
NFL. Although the Cowboys average 149 rushing yards per game,
an incredible 124 of them belong to Murray, so their top three
rushing ranking is almost entirely contingent on his availability.
Though he hasn’t missed any time this season, the first
time in his career to do so, it’s not hard to imagine that
if he weren’t to be carrying the ball then the entire rushing
attack might simply grind to a halt. After it seemed that steps
were being taken to lessen his workload, Murray posted career
highs in both carries and receptions despite Dallas holding a
commanding lead throughout the contest. It was great for his fantasy
owners in Week 14, but any sort of correction or overreaction
this week will certainly cost those same owners in the playoffs.
While Murray being a workhorse has made him the top fantasy ball
carrier this season, averaging nearly 18 fantasy points per game,
it has also placed him at the center of defensive game plans.
Prior to the career marks he set last week, the last time Murray
met or surpassed his season fantasy points average was in Week
8; interestingly that is also the last time he’s fumbled.
Defensively Philadelphia is marginally below average against the
run, allowing 114 yards per game, but on a per carry basis they’re
a top ten unit, allowing just 3.9 yards per attempt. Only seven
teams have defended more carries than the Eagles and just nine
teams have allowed fewer touchdowns, suggesting that they’re
the ground equivalent of a “bend but don’t break”
defense. Considering that the Cowboys employ a physical and high-volume
style of running game, Philadelphia seems perfectly suited to
absorb those blows, as demonstrated by their victory in Week 13
when Murray has held to a season low 73 rushing yards. It is probably
in the Eagles best interest to shut down the rushing attack, force
Romo into passing situations, and then allowing their pass rushers
to try to get after the quarterback.
Projections:
Tony Romo: 240 pass yds, 3 TDs
DeMarco Murray: 85 rush yds, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Joseph Randle: 10 rush yds
Dez Bryant: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Cole Beasley: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: A win on Sunday night would keep Philadelphia
at the top of the NFC East, and give them a head-to-head tie breaker
over their only potential competition thanks to a season sweep
of the Cowboys. In order to do that the passing game is going
to have to be much better than they were last week, starting with
QB Mark Sanchez. The Eagles signal caller completed only ten passes
in Week 14, gaining less than 100 yards through the air, though
he did manage to throw two touchdowns. He also was sacked three
times, tossed and interception, and completed only 50% of his
attempts. While the offense as a whole failed quite spectacularly,
the wide open pass attack was anything but; no receiver gained
40 yards and only four different players caught a pass. The lone
bright spot of the offense was TE Zach Ertz, who fractionally
surpassed his season yardage average and found the endzone for
just the third time this year. The Eagles will look to bounce
back on Sunday night, hopefully resembling the top ten passing
offense they’ve been in 2014 despite having to switch quarterbacks
halfway through the season. The greatest deficiency of the passing
game has been the turnovers; no team has thrown more interceptions
than Philadelphia. Compared to the man he replaced, Sanchez has
helped lead the team to more explosive plays, but has also been
responsible for more mistakes, making him a high risk, moderate
reward fantasy prospect.
The Philadelphia signal caller has had only one game this season
where he didn’t throw an interception or fumble the ball,
but that did occur in Week 13 against the Cowboys, so there may
be a small bit of optimism that perhaps history could repeat itself.
Seeing as how the Dallas defense ranks in the bottom quarter against
the pass and has recorded more sacks than only three other teams,
Sanchez becomes a somewhat more appealing option for desperate
fantasy owners. In their previous contest the Eagles threw just
29 passes, completing 69% of those attempts. Nearly half of the
total receiving yards went to WR Jeremy Maclin, and his counterpart
WR Jordan Matthews topped 50 and scored a touchdown. Sanchez was
sacked just once and did not throw an interception. Excluding
the Thanksgiving matchup with the Eagles, Dallas has surrendered
at least 338 yards and two scores through the air to opponents
since their Week 11 bye. Philadelphia has done well to protect
their quarterback all season long, conceding fewer sacks than
all but five teams, and if they’re able to once again keep
a clean pocket then Sanchez should be able to pick and choose
the shots he takes against an opportunistic but underwhelming
Cowboys secondary.
Running Game Thoughts: On paper the rushing offenses of Dallas
and Philadelphia aren’t radically different, with the notable
exception of yards gained per carry, which favors the Cowboys
by close to a yard when meaningless quarterback runs are eliminated.
The other major difference of course is the involvement of more
than one running back, where the Eagles will actually use more
than one ball carrier, something which has worked to the benefit
of RB LeSean McCoy since Week 6. In the four games where McCoy
has rushed for more than 115 yards, he carried between 22 and
25 times, and other running backs accounted for no fewer than
14 combined carries. In the other five games McCoy was given little
relief, with other ball carriers recording no more than eight
rushes in those contest. By keeping McCoy fresh and rotating other
players into the backfield, the O-line continues to wear on the
defensive front, so when McCoy makes it back onto the field he’s
a step faster than most of the players looking to tackle him.
On the season McCoy has averaged 82 rushing yards per game and
has found the endzone four times, with three of those scores and
six above average performances occurring in the last eight contests;
prior to Week 6 he never rushed for 82 yards and only once averaged
more than 3.5 yards per carry. For the Eagles and for fantasy
owners, McCoy is coming into form at the perfect time.
Dallas probably isn’t looking forward to facing the Eagles
running game for the second time in three weeks, not after McCoy
burned their defense for 159 yards and a touchdown on the ground,
averaging 6.4 yards per carry. For the season the Cowboys have
been slightly below average on the basis of yardage, both per
game and per attempt, but only three teams have surrendered more
touchdown runs. Historically McCoy has done quite well in one
game each season against Dallas, but his results in the other
contest have usually left much to be desired. If that trend holds
true, he’s probably in line for around 60 yards on approximately
17 touches, but with as poor as Dallas looked against the run
on Thanksgiving it’s hard to imagine they’ll be able
to contain the Philadelphia rushing attack just two weeks later.
The strength of the Eagles offense is in spreading out the defense
and taking advantage of whatever gaps exist, either through the
air or on the ground. Since Dallas is thinnest in the secondary
the biggest opportunities will likely exist on the arm of Sanchez,
though McCoy will certainly see enough touches to turn in a solid
fantasy performance.
Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 210 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
LeSean McCoy: 95 rush yds, 1 TD
Darren Sproles: 20 rush yds, 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Maclin: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan Matthews: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Zach Ertz: 25 rec yds
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Eagles 28 ^ Top
Raiders @ Chiefs
- (Caron)
Passing
Game Thoughts: After going over an entire calendar year
without a win, something might finally be clicking for the Oakland
Raiders. The team has won two of their past three games, both
over teams that are currently competing for a playoff appearance.
One of those wins even came against their Week 15 opponent, the
Kansas City Chiefs. Much of that has been because of the improved
play from rookie quarterback Derek Carr. Carr threw for 426 yards,
four touchdowns and no interceptions in those two victories. Most
recently, he completed 22 of his 28 pass attempts against a very
good San Francisco defense. Tight end Mychal Rivera showed up
in a huge way against the 49ers, making seven catches for a season-high
109 yards and a touchdown. Rivera is a playmaking tight end who
has disappeared at times, but still represents more upside than
many of the low-end starters who fantasy owners have in their
lineup. Wide receivers James Jones and Andre Holmes have both
struggled recently as neither player has gone over 60 yards receiving
since both did it back in Week 8.
This improving but still subpar passing game has a difficult matchup
here in Week 15 as they're up against a Kansas City defense that
has been very good against opposing passing games so far this
season. They've only allowed one quarterback (Peyton Manning)
to throw for more than two touchdowns against them in a single
game and they haven't allowed a single quarterback to pass for
more than 270 yards against them. Carr and the Raiders don't have
enough consistency in their passing game to be trusted by fantasy
owners at the moment, especially against a good Kansas City defense.
Running Game Thoughts: Perhaps the most exciting aspect of the
Oakland Raiders offense this season has been the emergence of
young running back Latavius Murray. Murray, who spent most of
the season stuck down the depth chart behind veterans Darren McFadden
and Maurice Jones-Drew has given life to an otherwise worthless
running game. His 6.5 yards per carry average is over three full
yards per carry better than McFadden and four yards per carry
better than Jones-Drew. While McFadden is still getting some touches,
at least the Raiders seem to have completely given up on the Jones-Drew
project in favor of giving Murray the majority of touches at the
position as we head down the stretch. Murray took 23 carries in
Week 14 as the Raiders defeated the 49ers and while he only ran
for 76 yards, it came against one of the best run defenses in
the league and it was enough to help the team get their second
win.
In Week 15, Murray will be against a Kansas City defense that
has been good in terms of total fantasy points conceded to opposing
running games this season primarily because of the lack of touchdowns
that those running backs have scored. The Chiefs have, however,
surrendered over five yards per carry to opposing backs on the
season. That includes a humiliatingly bad performance against
Murray back in Week 12 when they allowed him to rush for 112 yards
and two touchdowns against them on just four carries. Including
that game, the Chiefs have given up a total of 508 yards rushing
over their past three contests, which has to give fantasy owners
some optimism heading into this matchup.
Projections:
Derek Carr: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Latavius Murray: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
James Jones: 50 rec yds
Andre Holmes: 40 rec yds
Mychal Rivera: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Those who expected some sort of breakout
fantasy season in 2014 for Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith
have been disappointed, but his numbers this year have remained
good enough to keep the Chiefs near playoff contention and that
seems to be enough to keep Andy Reid content. He has been slightly
better than usual as of late as he has 17, 12 and 15 fantasy points
(standard scoring) over his past three games, but those numbers
are still not much to be excited about. His lack of passing down
the field has meant fewer interceptions than most quarterbacks
(six on the year), but it has also essentially made his entire
receiver group fantasy irrelevant. Dwayne Bowe is the only Kansas
City wide receiver who has made more than 30 receptions on the
season and, perhaps most bafflingly of all, not a single wide
receiver on the team has made a touchdown reception in 2014. Only
tight end Travis Kelce has any fantasy value whatsoever, as he
leads the team with 51 catches for 688 yards and four touchdowns.
His seven catches for 110 yards this past week is a nice number,
but he has now gone five straight games without scoring a touchdown.
Smith did perform fairly well when these teams played a few weeks
back as he threw for 234 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.
Although it wasn't good enough for the Chiefs to get a win, it
was enough to be one of his better fantasy games of the season.
Still, the Raiders are much better against the pass than they
are against the run here in 2014 and one would have to assume
that the Chiefs will run the ball heavily in this contest. Kelce
is the only player in this passing game who should be in fantasy
lineups against the Raiders.
Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles has been one of the most
consistent, high-end scorers in all of fantasy football for the
past few seasons. He missed some time earlier in the year, but
has otherwise been an elite option at the running back position
and has been in double-digit fantasy points in nine of his 10
games (standard scoring) since coming back from that injury. There
may not be a better no-brainer play in fantasy football than Charles,
especially in PPR formats. But unfortunately, that obvious start
appeal may not be so simple here in Week 15. Charles missed practice
early in the week with a swollen knee and was limited on Thursday
with that same injury. He had 121 total yards and scored twice
in the loss to the Cardinals in Week 14, but this injury needs
to be monitored heading into this extremely desirable matchup
against the Raiders.
Oakland ranks 28th in the league in fantasy points conceded to
opposing running backs this season. They've only held three teams
to fewer than 90 rushing yards in a game so far while also giving
up 17 total touchdowns to the position on the year. Charles had
a nice game where he went off for 122 total yards and a touchdown
when these teams played a few weeks ago despite the Chiefs losing.
If he can play this week, he is certainly one of the top running
back plays. If Charles is unable to go, Knile Davis instantly
becomes a RB1 for fantasy purposes and must be started in what
should be a great matchup.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 170 pass yds, 1 TD, 10 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Bowe: 50 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 60 rec yds
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Raiders 17 ^ Top
Broncos @ Chargers
- (Caron)
Passing
Game Thoughts: When you look at Peyton Manning's 2014 season,
the numbers are incredible. 3910 yards, 36 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
For most quarterbacks, that would be a career year...and he still
has three games to play. He's on pace to be one of the highest-scoring
fantasy players in the history of the game again this year, but
that doesn't tell the story of what's been happening lately. After
averaging over 323 passing yards per game in his first 11 games
this season, Manning has fallen apart over the past two games.
In Week 13, he passed for what was then a season-low 179 yards
and two touchdowns. We thought it could only get better from there,
but that was not the case. A week later, he passed for just 172
yards and no touchdowns -- the first time that he has failed to
throw a touchdown pass in a game while wearing a Broncos uniform.
Manning now has fantasy owners a bit worried here in Week 15 as
he heads to San Diego to face a team that has had his number a
bit over the course of his career. Manning did beat them up for
286 yards and three scores without throwing an interception when
these teams played earlier this season, but his 27-19 career touchdown-interception
ratio against the Chargers should not be disregarded. Tight end
Julius Thomas, who hasn't played since Week 11, should be back
on the field for this important divisional game and that should
go a long way toward improving what has been a weaker-than-usual
Denver offense over the past few games. Wide receiver Demaryius
Thomas has seen his numbers fall in each of his past six games,
but remains a must-start for fantasy purposes due to the tremendous
upside he possesses. Fellow wideout Emmanuel Sanders is also a
must-start as he has been one of the most consistent fantasy producers
in the league this season at the wide receiver position.
Running Game Thoughts: One of the most pleasant fantasy surprises
this season has been Denver running back C.J. Anderson. Anderson,
who started the season third or even fourth on the depth chart
behind Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman and Juwan Thompson, has exploded
since being given the starting job back in Week 10. His fantasy
point totals have quickly turned him into a must-start for fantasy
owners and he is yet another player in the long line of running
backs who have performed exceptionally well in the same backfield
as Peyton Manning. Anderson rushed for just 2.3 yards per carry
against the Bills in Week 14, but still managed to put a huge
smile onto the faces of his fantasy owners as he was able to get
into the end zone three times. It was also the first game since
earning the starting job that he did not catch a single pass in,
but Anderson remains a high-quality option in PPR formats as he
has been catching numerous passes in most games.
In Week 15, Anderson will be running against a defense that has
been middle-of-the-pack for most of the season but really doesn't
have anything that should make fantasy owners worried about starting
the stud running back. Ronnie Hillman had 138 yards of offense
and Thompson scored two touchdowns against the Chargers when these
teams played in Week 8, so this is a defense that the Broncos
have proven that they can have success against out of the running
back position.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 290 pass yds, 2 TD
C.J. Anderson: 80 rush yds, 2 TD, 25 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel Sanders: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Julius Thomas: 50 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Earlier this season, there were some analysts
who were making a case for Philip Rivers to be considered for
the MVP of the league. His numbers were incredible and the Chargers
were close to keeping pace with the Broncos in the division. That
chatter has quieted significantly as of late, however, as Rivers
has not been the same quarterback in the second half of the season
that he was in the first half. Since the midway point, Rivers
has thrown for an average of just 239 yards per game with six
touchdowns and six interceptions over five contests. Those numbers
are barely good enough to win against average teams, let alone
the Broncos who he will be up against here in Week 15. Rivers
did throw for 252 yards and three touchdowns against Denver when
these teams played earlier this season, but he also threw a pair
of interceptions and the Chargers went on to lose by two touchdowns.
What has been more frustrating than Rivers' struggles, though,
has been trying to determine which one of his pass-catchers is
actually going to show up on a week-to-week basis. We thought
that Keenan Allen was finally starting to break out again after
back-to-back 100-plus yard performances in Weeks 12 and 13, but
then completely destroyed fantasy owners with a despicable two-catch,
three-yard performance against the Patriots in Week 14. Perhaps
the most consistent receiver of the bunch has been wideout Malcom
Floyd who has made at least three catches in every game since
Week 4. Unfortunately, he has just one game of more than four
catches over that span, so it's hard to trust him for any sort
of fantasy production. Allen will likely be the only fantasy-relevant
fantasy wide receiver for the Chargers here in Week 15 as he did
catch nine passes for 73 yards and a touchdown when he played
the Broncos in Week 8; while tight end Antonio Gates remains a
low-end starter at the tight end position.
Running Game Thoughts: The running back position in San Diego
has been a bit of a revolving door this season, but as long as
Ryan Mathews is healthy, it appears that he is the lead dog in
this backfield. Mathews has taken double-digit carries in each
of his four games since returning from injury while Branden Oliver
has just 23 total carries over that span and hasn't caught a pass
in either of his past two games. Donald Brown has been taking
some of the snaps that would normally go to Oliver over the past
few weeks, which has added to the frustration of fantasy owners
who would just like to see Mathews get more total touches. That
isn't likely to happen anytime soon, though, as the Chargers are
likely limiting Mathews' touches due to his long injury history.
In fact, Mathews is currently nursing an ankle injury which has
held him out of practice all week.
If he is able to play, Mathews will face a stingy Broncos run
defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league
this season. Not only that, but they've held opposing running
backs from rushing for a touchdown in eight of their past nine
games. This is one of the worst possible matchups for a fantasy
running back and with Mathews hobbled, it's just not worth the
risk. Find another option for him this week. If Mathews does not
play, look for Brown and Oliver to split touches with Brown getting
the higher end of the split. Like Mathews, however, neither player
represents much upside for fantasy owners.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 240 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Ryan Mathews: 50 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Keenan Allen: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Malcom Floyd: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds
Prediction: Broncos 31, Chargers 23 ^ Top
49ers @ Seahawks
- (Caron)
Passing
Game Thoughts: It has been a disappointing season for the
San Francisco 49ers. After being one of the best teams in the
league over the past few seasons, the team is now hanging by a
thread, third in their division, hoping for a wild card playoff
berth. The team finally fell to rock bottom this past week when
they lost to arguably the worst team in the league, the Oakland
Raiders. The 49ers scored just 13 points against a terrible Oakland
defense and a lot of that has to fall onto the shoulders of quarterback
Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick completed just 18 of his 33 pass
attempts for 174 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. He
also failed to rush for even 30 yards for the seventh straight
contest. Vernon Davis remains a fantasy non-factor while Michael
Crabtree has just one game of double-digit fantasy points (standard
scoring) since Week 6.
Things won't get any easier this week, either, as the 49ers matchup
against a team that held them to just three points, two weeks
ago...and now it's in Seattle. The Seahawks started the season
off slowly on the defensive side of the ball, but have now shot
all the way up to being the No. 1 fantasy defense against opposing
quarterbacks on the year. They've held opposing quarterbacks to
fewer than 150 passing yards in four straight contests and under
200 yards in seven of their past eight contests. That includes
a crushing performance in Week 13 then they held Kaepernick to
just 121 passing yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions; their
best game of the year. Needless to say, this is not a good time
to start trusting that Kaepernick is suddenly going to turn things
around. Keep him on your bench here against the Seahawks. Only
Anquan Boldin should be considered a viable fantasy option and
even he is a low-end WR2.
Running Game Thoughts: We may be seeing the final carries of
Frank Gore's career here as we head toward the end of 2014. The
potential future Hall of Famer has had an amazing career, especially
considering the fact that he was still productive when the team
was at an all-time worst. But fantasy football owners don't get
points for what a player has done in the past, and in 2014, Gore
has been pretty bad. He's barely cracking the 4.0 yards per carry
mark on the year and his three total touchdowns have held him
out of even being a top-24 back; which means that he is relegated
to only being a Flex option at this point. Worse yet, his lack
of usage in the passing game has made him someone worth benching
most weeks in PPR leagues.
That won't change as he goes up against Seattle here in Week 15.
The Seahawks defense is back to playing like a world championship
unit and they have held opposing running games to under 100 yards
in all but two games this season; and those came against Jamaal
Charles and DeMarco Murray. The 49ers running game seems to be
completely useless at this point and they proved it just two weeks
ago when Gore was held to 28 yards on 10 carries. You need to
score points in the fantasy playoffs and this just does not look
like a good situation for that to happen -- keep Gore on your
bench.
Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 180 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Frank Gore: 45 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Anquan Boldin: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Crabtree: 50 rec yds
Vernon Davis: 25 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: 210 passing yards per game and 17 passing
touchdowns in 13 games doesn't sound great on paper. In fact,
it sounds like the kind of numbers that bad teams typically get
out of backup, journeyman quarterbacks...and that's where Russell
Wilson currently sits as we head into Week 15. Wilson's passing
numbers haven't been spectacular from a fantasy standpoint, but
what he has been able to do is keep the ball out of the hands
of defenders. He's thrown only five picks on the year, which has
allowed Seattle to stay in playoff contention despite some struggles
early in the season. Not only has he played efficiently in the
passing game, but Wilson is doing incredible things with his legs.
His 727 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns are the kind
of numbers that you typically only see out of running backs. Add
that to his passing numbers and Wilson suddenly goes from being
a guy who's not on fantasy radars to being a player who is practically
a must-start regardless of opponent. Wilson is the No. 4 fantasy
quarterback in the league in standard scoring formats and has
been hot as of late, posting fantasy totals of at least 16 points
in five straight contests. None of his receivers have been particularly
consistent, but it is worth noting that Doug Baldwin caught five
passes for 97 yards and a touchdown in the Seahawks' big win over
the Eagles in Week 14.
In Week 15, though, Wilson and the Seahawks will have a tough
matchup against a San Francisco 49ers defense that ranks fifth
in fewest fantasy points per game given up to opposing QB's. Wilson
did throw for 236 yards and a touchdown while adding an additional
35 yards on the ground against the 49ers in Week 13, so there
is some reason for optimism. Also, the 49ers just gave up a 254-yard,
three touchdown day to the Raiders' Derek Carr. Wilson needs to
be in fantasy lineups primarily because of his rushing ability,
which is something that can quickly turn a mediocre fantasy day
into a great one.
Running Game Thoughts: Following his 86-yard day, Seattle running
back Marshawn Lynch has now broken the 1,000-yard mark on the
season for his fourth time in four full seasons with the Seahawks.
Lynch now sits as the No. 3 running back in all of fantasy football
and his 13 total touchdowns are second at the position, behind
only Jamaal Charles. Lynch's increased usage in the passing game
this season has also given him a bit of a fantasy boost as he
is now on pace for his most receptions since his 2008 year with
the Bills. He has been putting up big yardage lately as well as
he has averaged nearly 130 yards of total offense per game through
the second half of the season. Earlier in the year, there were
rumors of Lynch potentially losing snaps to younger backs, but
that certainly has not been the case. Lynch is as much of a workhorse
back as any player in the league which has allowed him to enjoy
incredible consistency not just as an NFL running back, but also
as a fantasy asset.
Here in Week 15, Lynch will be running against a team that strikes
fear in the hearts of most running backs, the San Francisco 49ers.
San Francisco has been one of the league's best defenses for the
entire time that Lynch has been in Seattle, but that hasn't seemed
to affect Lynch whatsoever. In fact, Lynch has averaged nearly
100 yards rushing per game against the 49ers over his past six
games against them. This includes a 104-yard performance against
them just two weeks ago. This isn't a great matchup, but Lynch
is a good enough player to succeed anyway.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 50 rush yds, 1 TD
Marshawn Lynch: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Kearse: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Seahawks 24, 49ers 13 ^ Top
Bengals at Browns
- (Marcoccio)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton has had an extremely inconsistent
season in 2014. When he’s been bad, he’s been very
bad. Last week Dalton had one of his better games, albeit in a
losing effort. He threw for 302 yards with 2 touchdown passes
and an interception. He also ran for a 20-yard score. This week
he’ll match up with the team he faced back in Week 9, where
he had his worst game of the season. Dalton completed only 30%
of his passes in “amassing” 86 yards, and he threw
3 interceptions. His team will obviously need better numbers this
week as they hope to remain in contention for the AFC North crown.
A.J. Green is back to dominating opposing defenses but the Bengals
will likely have little shot to get revenge against the Browns
if Green doesn’t win his matchup with cornerback Joe Haden.
Dalton’s success has long been dependant on Green’s
athletic ability. Outside of Matthew Stafford, no quarterback
in the league may be as dependant on one player for his production
as Dalton is on Green.
Cleveland was able to shut Green down in the last contest, but
he did manage to be on the receiving end of 23 of Daltons 86 passing
yards – so Green’s poor production merely a byproduct
of Dalton’s ineffectiveness. Despite a difficult matchup
with Haden, it’s hard to imagine that the Dalton to Green
connection isn’t much more productive this time around.
On the season Cleveland is allowing 231.1 passing yards per game
but has allowed 19 touchdown passes against them.
Running Game Thoughts: Giovani Bernard
did not suit up the last time these two teams met and with Andy
Dalton playing at a historically bad level, the running game struggled
as well. Bernard has been slowly worked back into the mix since
returning from a hip injury, and has been outplayed by rookie
Jeremy Hill. Outside of Week 9, Hill has played very well as the
feature back while Bernard was out. He has shown far more power
and inside running ability than Bernard and has actually produced
more big plays as well. Hill does have a tendency of making foolish
statements like calling out his coaching staff’s game plan
or calling the Browns “not a good team” after being
blown out by them. The Bengals need to find the right mix between
their two headed rushing attack, as both are extremely talented
and dangerous players. The talk heading into this week has been
that offensive coordinator Hue Jackson would prefer to feature
one back, and that back will supposedly be Hill. “I'm used
to having one guy kind of dominate some carries because in order
for backs to be really good, they've got to get lathered up to
play,” Jackson said after Wednesday’s practice.
The Browns offer a favorable matchup for a team looking to establish
the run, allowing 129.5 yards per game to opposing teams. This
could be the key matchup this week.
Projections:
Andy
Dalton: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Jeremy
Hill: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Giovani
Bernard: 25 rush yds, 35 rec yds, 1 TD
A.J.
Green: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed
Sanu: 60 rec yds
Jermaine
Gresham: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Johnny Football era starts in Cleveland
this week as the team has finally decided to bench the struggling
Brian Hoyer. Hoyer hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in the
last three games while giving away 7 interceptions. Manziel has
superior arm strength and mobility over the veteran, but the question
will be whether he’s capable of reading a defense. He should
be equally as fiery on the field, and should give the offense
a spark like he did in Week 13 where he completed 5-of-8 passes
for 62 yards and ran one in for a touchdown in relief of Hoyer.
Josh Gordon has struggled a bit since his return from suspension.
Those struggles are due in equal part to his rustiness and Hoyer’s
poor play. Gordon has been targeted heavily since his return,
but his unfamiliarity with the offense has seen him end up in
the wrong spot at times and Hoyer has missed him badly when he’s
been open. Tight End Jordan Cameron returned from his concussion
and should see his role expand, as he gets worked back into the
mix. With Gordon, Cameron, and Andrew Hawkins all healthy, Manziel
shouldn’t have any excuses available if he plays poorly.
The Bengals’ defense has seen almost as many ups and downs
as the team’s quarterback. What looked to be one of the
league’s best defenses early, has struggled at times including
last week against the Steelers. On the season, the team has allowed
247.5 passing yards per game, but has yielded only 14 touchdowns
with 12 interceptions through 13 games.
Running Game Thoughts: The Browns’
running game hasn’t been the same since center Alex Mack
was lost for the season. What was once a very productive unit
has been merely average at best in recent weeks. With Ben Tate
released and rookie Terrance West in the doghouse, fellow rookie
Isaiah Crowell was given an opportunity to take over as the lead
back, but a hip injury has likely kept him in a timeshare. Crowell
has looked very good, showing excellent vision and good power
and is the team’s preferred red-zone option. West hasn’t
been totally tossed in the trash, however, after getting publically
blasted by his coach for a bad fumble in the Buffalo game. In
fact, it was West that got the start and most of the first half
work in last week’s game. West finished with 15 carries
compared to 14 for Crowell. It’s hard to predict this situation
going forward so owners should continue to consider this a timeshare
backfield and plan accordingly.
The Bengals have not been good at stopping the run, allowing 130.3
rushing yards per game while yielding 15 rushing touchdowns. The
Browns would be wise to look to establish the run and protect
their young quarterback against this defense. The last time these
two teams faced off Ben Tate was still with the team and all three
running backs managed very productive days while all managed to
find the end-zone.
Projections:
Johnny
Manziel: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 55 rush yds
Terrance
West: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Isaiah
Crowell: 55 rush yds, 1 TD
Josh
Gordon: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Andrew
Hawkins: 45 rec yds
Jordan
Cameron: 55 rec yds
Prediction: Bengals 24, Browns 20
^ Top
Jaguars at Ravens
- (Marcoccio)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles has gone through the typical
rookie struggles. His 16 interceptions lead the league in that
category, despite only starting eleven games. On the positive
side he is completing 61.2% of his throws, albeit by mainly throwing
short range passes, and is averaging 224.2 passing yards per game.
Bortles has gained 306 yards on the ground showing the athleticism
that was a big part of his success on the college level. If he
can cut down on his turnovers while attacking downfield a bit
more, it’s looking like the Jaguars made a good choice at
the top of this past NFL draft. Outside of veteran Cecil Shorts,
who has missed time with injuries, Bortles is surrounded by an
equally young supporting cast, with rookies Marqise Lee and Allen
Huns seeing significant playing time when healthy. Allen Robison,
out of Penn State, was the best rookie of the bunch, but is now
lost for the season. In his absence, Lee has stepped up and has
led the Jaguars in receptions the last two weeks and caught a
31-yard touchdown last week. Lee is slightly built and not particularly
fast, but is a solid route runner with sure hands and should be
a nice compliment to Robinson and perhaps even Justin Blackmon,
should he ever be reinstated. For the rest of this season, however,
this is not a passing game that should excite fantasy owners.
The Ravens’ pass defense has been a brutally bad unit this
season. They are allowing 267.2 yards per game and have yielded
21 passing touchdowns. They aren’t likely to be tested this
week, but it could be a game that gives the young passing attack
some confidence going forward if Bortles can find some success.
Running Game Thoughts: The Jaguars signed former Adrian Peterson
backup, Toby Gerhart, to be their bellcow back this offseason,
but you know what they say about the best made plane of mice and
men? Gerhart suffered a bad ankle sprain in Week 1 and played
through it but was very ineffective. When he did finally miss
a game former Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson came in and
revitalized the rushing attack before hitting a wall, and seeing
his production drop sharply. Robinson is now lost for the season
with a mid-foot sprain, which should hand the job back to Gerhart.
The Jaguars offensive line is subpar, and Gerhart’s lumbering
style has not been suited to production, but he has been good
in pass protection and will help in passing situations. Jordan
Todman and rookie Storm Johnson should be in the mix for carries
as well.
The Ravens’ run defense has been very strong, so the Jaguars
should find it tough to establish any kind of running game this
week. The unit is allowing a meager 84.5 rushing yards per game
with only 7 rushing touchdowns surrendered.
Projections:
Blake Bortles: 205 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 35 rush yd
Toby Gerhart: 35 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Storm Johnson: 25 rush yds, 5 rec yards
Marqise Lee: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Allen Hurns: 35 rec yds
Marcedes Lewis: 45 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco has played reasonably well throughout
this season, doing enough to keep the Ravens in contention for
the AFC North title. While he may technically not be worth the
franchise quarterback money that he is being paid, he’s
capable of winning games for the Ravens and he’s better
than any other option available to the team. Flacco is completing
64% of his passes and has a very solid 22:9 TD:INT ratio, which
makes him better than average in a time where the quarterback
play in this league ranges from Hall of Fame level greatness to
extremely poor. Torrey Smith wasn’t able to contribute last
week due to a knee injury and his availability this week is in
doubt leaving Flacco with very limited weapons in the passing
game. Steve Smith has given the Ravens an effort beyond expectations
in his age 35 season and will be heavily counted on this week
as the Ravens fight to stay on top of the highly competitive AFC
North. Second year wide receiver Marlon Brown has had a quiet
second year after producing well as a rookie and should see significant
snaps this week replacing Smith. Veteran tight end Owen Daniels
hasn’t contributed much in recent weeks, but is another
candidate to see an expanded role with Torrey Smith out of the
line-up.
The Jaguars’ pass defense has not been strong this season,
so perhaps the Ravens should be able to survive just fine without
Smith. The Jags are allowing 244.4 yards per game and have yielded
20 passing touchdowns with only 5 interceptions.
Running Game Thoughts: Veteran Justin Forsett has more than effectively
replaced Ray Rice’s production in the running game after
grabbing the job and keeping it when backup Bernard Pierce missed
time early in the season. The veteran running back who turned
29 this season, is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has shown
that he can handle a feature back workload averaging 14.7 carries
per game and adding 37 receptions. Pierce and Lorenzo Taliaferro
spelled Forsett more than usual last week as the veteran was nursing
a knee injury leading up to the game. Neither back has been much
of a threat to Forsett, however. While he does lose some goal-line
looks to the bigger backs he still has 8 rushing touchdowns on
the season.
The Jaguars are the league’s 28th ranked run defense allowing
132.8 yards per game on the ground. The Ravens like to run a balanced
attack, so the Jaguars run defense will need to be up to the task.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yd
Lorenzo Taliaferro: 35 rush yds, 1 TD 5 rec yds
Justin Forsett: 75 rush yds, 30 rec yards
Marlon Brown: 55 rec yds
Steve Smith: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Owen Daniels: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Ravens 27, Jaguars 13 ^ Top
Vikings at Lions
- (Marcoccio)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Teddy Bridgewater had the best statistical
game of his career in Week 14, completing 19-of-27 passes for
307 yards and 2 touchdowns. His only blemish was an interception
that came on a Hail Mary pass as time ran out in first half. Eighty-Seven
of those yards, however, came on a short screen pass to wide receiver
Jarius Wright who broke a tackle and ran the ball in for the winning
touchdown in Overtime. Bridgewater also hooked up with his new
favorite target Charles Johnson for a 56-yard score and could
have added another touchdown if Johnson didn’t fumble the
ball into the end-zone on another long pass play. Bridgewater
is starting to take more chances downfield something that was
lacking from his game during his early starts. Last week was his
third straight game with at least 2 touchdown passes, and he is
starting to look very comfortable in Norv Turner’s offense.
The Lions are allowing only 232.8 passing yards per game and have
managed to pick off almost as many balls as they have allowed
touchdown passes (18:17). The Lions can create pressure up the
middle, and the Vikings offensive line has given up the sixth
most sacks in the league with 40. This Lions defense has surprisingly
been carrying the team most of the season and will need to come
through again in a division matchup with the division title still
within reach.
Running Game Thoughts: Jerick McKinnon was placed on the IR this
week leaving the running game to Matt Asiata, Ben Tate and Joe
Banyard. With Tate having now been with the team for three weeks
and more acclimated with the offense his role should increase
with Asiata proving to be nothing more than a decent stopgap option.
Asiata is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry on the ground, and
while he does a fine job in pass protection and has shown steady
hands, he’s not a tremendous asset in the running game or
after the catch either. Former practice squad player Banyard has
shown some flashes, but the team should want to see what Tate
offers after picking him up on waivers and with Adrian Peterson’s
future with the team uncertain.
Whichever back sees the bulk of carries will face a tough time
with the Lions top ranked run defense. The team is allowing only
3 yards per carry and 62 yards per game with 6 touchdowns on the
season. The uninspiring options that the Vikings have at their
disposal should not be able to gain much traction against this
ferocious unit.
Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 235 pass yds, 2 TDs, 15 rush yds
Matt Asiata: 25 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Ben Tate: 35 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Charles Johnson: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Greg Jennings: 45 rec yds
Kyle Rudolph: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford and the Lions’ passing
game has been revitalized with Calvin Johnson now seemingly fully
recovered from a mid-season ankle injury. It has certainly helped
that the Lions have squared off against two of the league’s
bottom ranked pass defenses in Chicago and Tampa Bay the last
two weeks. Stafford has put up 701 yards and 5 touchdowns in those
two games with Calvin Johnson being on the receiving end of 304
of those yards and three of the touchdowns. Golden Tate who stepped
up when Calvin was out, has now taken a back seat to Megatron,
but has still been a solid contributor and has 84 receptions for
1,186 yards on the season. If rookie tight end Eric Ebron is able
to take another step in his development next season this passing
game could be unstoppable, but for now outside of Johnson and
Tate their isn’t much to get excited about.
The Vikings have had a strong pass defense this season allowing
only 220.8 passing yards per game but have yielded 21 touchdown
passes. They have done a good job of shutting down opposing team’s
top weapons, most noticeably Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson and
Randall Cobb just a few weeks back, but Johnson creates mismatches,
even when double teamed that no other wide receiver in the league
can.
Running Game Thoughts: Reggie Bush was back last week, but it
was the recently red hot Joique Bell that saw the heavy workload
in that game. Bell rushed 18 times for 83 yards and a score while
also adding 5 receptions for 50 yards. Bush rushed only 8 times
for 26 yards and only added 8 yards in the receiving game. Bush
may carve into Bell’s role as he gets back into game shape,
but right now it looks like Bell is clearly the preferred option
and he’s regained his 2013 form of being a hard charging
tackle breaking runner. With a strong defense, the Lions really
should be looking to establish a balanced offense, and Bell is
finally giving them the option to do so.
The Vikings are the league’s 23rd ranked run defense allowing
127.2 rushing yards per game and 9 rushing touchdowns, so the
Lions should be able to move the ball on the ground. With the
Vikings likely to struggle moving the ball against their top ranked
defense, the Lions could be content to attack the weak part of
the Vikings’ defense by keeping the ball on the ground more
than usual.
Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Reggie Bush: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Joique Bell: 95 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Calvin Johnson: 105 rec yds, 2 TDs
Golden Tate: 70 rec yds
Eric Ebron: 20 rec yds
Prediction: Lions 27, Vikings 20 ^ Top
Saints at Bears
- (Marcoccio)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees and the Saints came up small
in an important home game against the Panthers where they could
have taken sole possession of first place in the pathetic NFC
South. He completed only 29-of-49 passes for 235 yards with 1
touchdown and 1 interception. Tight end Jimmy Graham disappointed
for the second consecutive week catching only 3 passes for 25
yards after not even being targeted the week before. The Saints’
passing game is still capable of putting up big numbers but Brees
has turned the ball over far too often and the team has failed
to make the plays necessary to win games.
Luckily the Saints have the good fortune of facing a Bears’
team this week which has not stopped anyone all season long. The
Bears are allowing 265.5 yards per game and have yielded an incredible
30 touchdowns through the air. Look for the Saints’ passing
game to find its way back this week.
Running Game Thoughts: The Saints fell behind early last week
and struggled to sustain drives against the Panthers and thus
the running game never really was able to get going. Mark Ingram
gained 43 yards on his 10 carries, but lost a fumble early in
the game which helped set the tone for a blowout loss. Ingram
has run the ball effectively this season, averaging 4.5 yards
per carry, and has provided a power running game for a team that
has been lacking one for a number of years. Khiry Robinson returned
this week but didn’t see many snaps and probably won’t
so long as Ingram remains effective. Veteran Pierre Thomas is
a “jack of all trades” type runner whose versatility
is an important element to this offense, and his role should remain
stable as a third down back and spell back for Ingram. The Saints
have some talented runners and could be the type of offense that
could really wear down a defense, but Sean Peyton has always felt
more at home calling passing plays, which leaves only table scraps
for the Saint runners.
The Bears have played the run reasonably well, allowing 112.3
yards per game and only 9 rushing touchdowns on the season. Those
statistics are partially a result of the passing defense being
such an easy target for opposing offenses. On a potentially cold
and windy Monday Night in Chicago, the Saints could focus a larger
portion of their play calls on the running game than they normally
would, but Sean Peyton will likely not be able to resist the urge
to get his passing game back in shape.
Projections:
Drew Brees: 305 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Mark Ingram: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Pierre Thomas: 35 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Marques Colston: 45 rec yds
Kenny Stills: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Jimmy Graham: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler now has 15 interceptions on the
season while also losing 6 fumbles. The Bears have to be regretting
paying him like a franchise quarterback as he hasn’t done
much to take the franchise in the right direction. This season
in particular a disproportionate amount of his production has
come in garbage time as he attempts to drag his team back from
a large deficit that at times he has been largely responsible
for putting them in. Brandon Marshall who was in the midst of
his worst season since his rookie year has now been placed on
the IR after suffering broken ribs and a collapsed lung during
last week’s Thursday Night game. Alshon Jeffrey and tight
end Martellus Bennett will be asked to pick up the slack and carry
the passing game these last three weeks while second year player
Marquess Wilson gets an opportunity to step in as the starting
wideout opposite Jeffrey. The 6’4” Wilson has tremendous
deep speed and could provide a jump start to the offense if Cutler
decides to take advantage of him by throwing deep more often.
The Saints arrival at Soldier Field should help the passing game
get back on track, as they have really struggled in pass defense
all season. The Saints are allowing 265.2 passing yards per game
and 22 touchdown passes with only 8 interceptions. Rob Ryan somehow
had this unit playing good football last season, but that is all
a distant memory now.
Running Game Thoughts: Happy Birthday, Matt Forte! The running
back turned 29 this week, but his inevitable decline that comes
with age may have already started. Forte has struggled the last
couple of weeks and is only averaging 4 yards per carry on the
season. He is still a big part of the passing game, however, with
86 receptions for 724 yards. Rookie Ka’Deem Carey has not
been used much this season, as the Bears just don’t run
the ball often enough to need a spell back, but perhaps he should
start to get some looks in what has quickly become a lost season
for the team. Carey is a grinder type back that isn’t particularly
big or fast, but has good vision and leg churn and could keep
the chains moving if called upon. The Bears have finally invested
in their offensive line in recent years, and it has become one
of the league’s better units, but until the team takes its
running game more seriously it will go to waste, as their quarterback
puts them in bad spots with his sloppy play.
The Saints are coming off consecutive games where veteran journeyman
Justin Forsett and forgotten veteran Jonathan Stewart have scorched
them for 189 and 155 yards on the ground, respectively. Perhaps
running Forte and Carey at the heart of the defense is a strategy
that would pay big dividends but don’t hold your breath
waiting for Marc Trestman to try and establish a running game.
Projections:
Jay Cutler: 295 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 15 rush yds
Matt Forte: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 40 rec yds
Ka’Deem
Carey: 25 rush yds
Marquess Wilson: 65 rec yds
Alshon Jeffery: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus Bennett: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Bears 34, Saints 31 ^ Top
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