Titans at Jaguars
- (Smith)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Both Zach Mettenberger and Jake Locker are
out with injuries, leaving the quarterback position in the hands
of Charlie Whitehurst, who should be starting for nobody’s
fantasy team. The same can be said for the rest of the pass-catching
unit of the Titans, with one obvious exception – tight end
Delanie Walker. Walker leads the team with 52 receptions and 793
yards while snaring four touchdowns. He amassed 92 yards last
week and has a good match-up against Jacksonville.
The Jaguars are 21st in the league in pass defense but tied for
10th-fewest passing scores allowed. They are squarely in the middle
of the NFL in terms of fantasy points allowed to both quarterbacks
and wide receivers, but have been solid against each of late.
Jacksonville hasn’t given up double-digit fantasy points
to a wideout for three straight games, and has held each of the
past four quarterbacks they’ve faced to fewer than 255 passing
yards without allowing more than one touchdown pass. However,
they have given up the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends,
including 62 yards and a score last week to Baltimore’s
Owen Daniels.
Running Game Thoughts: Bishop Sankey
has done absolutely nothing of note, which is why Shonn Green
got the call last week against the Jets after being scratched
the previous week. Greene carried the ball 16 times for 50 yards,
and while those numbers aren’t noteworthy, he was facing
a good Jets run defense. If it was certain Greene would be getting
another 15+ carries this week, it’d be easy to recommend
him against the Jags’ poor run defense, but it’s impossible
to know which Titan will be getting the bulk of the carries, and
it’s too big a risk to take this late in the fantasy playoffs.
Jacksonville is 27th in the NFL in run defense and tied for 25th
in rushing scores given up. They held Baltimore’s running
game in check last week, but fantasy owners shouldn’t let
that fool them. The Jags have surrendered the sixth-most fantasy
points in the league to running backs and have allowed double-digit
fantasy points to backs six times in their last six games.
Projections:
Charlie
Whitehurst: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Shonn
Greene: 55 rush yds
Bishop
Sankey: 15 rush yds
Nate
Washington: 65 rec yds
Kendall
Wright: 40 rec yds
Derek
Hagan: 25 rec yds
Delanie
Walker: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Lots of people seem to be quite high on
Blake Bortles, and who know, maybe one day he’ll become
an elite quarterback. But that day is not today, and as such he
should continue to be ignored by fantasy owners. He does have
some interesting pass-catchers around him, and though the inconsistencies
are somewhat frightening late in the fantasy playoffs, it wouldn’t
be out of the question for fantasy owners to consider one of them
– Allen Hurns. The wideout leads the team with 636 yards
and (more importantly) six touchdowns, and the match-up this week
against the Titans is one that could make him a solid WR3.
Tennessee has the NFL’s 18th-ranked pass defense and they
are tied for 21st in passing scores yielded. The team is in the
middle of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks,
wide receivers, and tight ends, but has been scorched by wideouts
of late. Over their last five games, the Titans have given up
double-digit fantasy points to a wide receiver four times, including
238 yards and two scores to Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins, and
even allowed 100 yards last week to Eric Decker, who plays for
the pass-averse Jets.
Running Game Thoughts: Denard Robinson
provided a big lift to fantasy owners when he took over at running
back for Toby Gerhart, but a foot injury has sidelined Robinson,
making Gerhart the team’s top back again. He ran for 54
yards on 13 carries last week against the Ravens, who are third
in the league in run defense. Gerhart remains a bit of a risk,
but it’s hard not to like him as a flex play – at
the least – against the atrocious rush defense of the Tennessee
Titans.
No team in the league has given up more rushing yards this season
than the Titans, and just three squads have allowed more rushing
scores. Tennessee has allowed 1,808 rushing yards to running backs
this season, which is 150+ yards more than any other team, and
has given up the third-most fantasy points to backs.
Projections:
Blake
Bortles: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Toby
Gerhart: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Allen
Hurns: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Cecil
Shorts: 55 rec yds
Marqise
Lee: 35 rec yds
Marcedes
Lewis: 25 rec yds
Prediction: Jaguars 20, Titans 13
^ Top
Ravens at Texans
- (Smith)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco has had a solid 2014 campaign,
and fantasy owners have gotten what they should have expected
– a low-end QB1 or QB2. He hasn’t thrown more than
two touchdowns in a game since Week 6, but did find tight end
Owen Daniels last week for the first time in six games and has
distributed the ball nicely to Steve Smith most of the year. Smith
has been up and down of late, but fantasy owners should expect
him to be up this week against a Texans defense that is awful
against wide receivers.
Houston is tied for 26th in the NFL in pass defense and tied for
24th in passing scores surrendered. They’ve given up the
13th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and are tied for sixth-fewest
fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but only Philadelphia and
Baltimore have permitted more fantasy points to opposing wide
receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Justin Forsett
has had an unexpectedly fantastic year, so fantasy owners should
forgive him for laying an egg with fewer than 50 total yards last
week. He’s run for over 1,100 yards with eight rushing scores,
and though his match-up with Houston is anything but easy, Forsett
should be able to move the ball both on the ground and as a pass-catcher.
The Texans are 14th in the league in run defense and are tied
with Arizona for third-fewest rushing scores given up. Houston
has allowed a fair number of receiving yards to opposing running
backs, which is why, despite their solid overall numbers against
the run, they’ve allowed the 14th-fewest (or 19th-most,
however you want to look at it) fantasy points to running backs.
Projections:
Joe
Flacco: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Justin
Forsett: 75 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Steve
Smith: 90 rec yds, 2 TD
Torrey
Smith: 45 rec yds
Marlon
Brown: 35 rec yds
Owen
Daniels: 50 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Houston has lost Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan
Mallett, and Tom Savage to injury, which means the team will be
starting either Thad Lewis or Case Keenum under center this week.
The Texans aren’t expected to announce who will be getting
the start until around game time, but Case Keenum did start for
the team last season so that familiarity should work in his favor.
Even against a soft Baltimore pass defense (yardage-wise), fantasy
owners should avoid Keenum (or Lewis) but shouldn’t ignore
DeAndre Hopkins if he plays. Houston will undoubtedly focus on
the running game, but on the occasions they do throw, Hopkins
will be getting the looks.
The Ravens are 30th in the league against the pass but tied for
10th in passing touchdowns allowed. Though they’ve been
decent against tight ends, all those passing yards are turning
into fantasy points for quarterbacks (Baltimore has allowed eighth-most
fantasy points to players at that position) and wide receivers
(only the Eagles have allowed more fantasy points to wideouts).
Running Game Thoughts: Arian Foster
racked up 99 yards on the ground last week against the Colts,
though it took him 26 carries to do so. That type of workload
– or even heavier – should be in store for Foster
once again this week as the Texans look to minimize their replacement
quarterback’s exposure to Baltimore’s defense. There
is no tougher match-up for a running back than the Ravens, but
fantasy owners who have rolled with Foster this far shouldn’t
be backing down from him now.
Baltimore owns the NFL’s third-ranked run defense and is
tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns permitted. Only the Chiefs
have allowed fewer touchdowns to running backs, and no team has
allowed fewer fantasy points to players at that position.
Projections:
Case
Keenum: 155 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Arian
Foster: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
DeAndre
Hopkins: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre
Johnson: 40 rec yds
Ryan
Griffin: 15 rec yds
Prediction: Ravens 20, Texans 14
^ Top
Browns at Panthers
- (Smith)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Johnny Manziel was ghastly in his start
last week against Cincinnati, with 80 yards passing and two interceptions
on 18 attempts. He has an easier match-up this week, but fantasy
owners should have learned their lesson – keep Johnny Football
benched. On the other side of the coin there’s Josh Gordon.
Yes, he relies on Manziel to get him the ball, but the Panthers
have a defense conducive to allowing that to happen and Gordon
is too good to be held in check this week.
Carolina is 12th in the NFL against the pass but tied for 21st
in passing touchdowns allowed. While they have been solid against
tight ends most of the year, the Panthers have given up the 10th-most
fantasy points to quarterbacks and the 11th-most points to wide
receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Like in every
other aspect of their game last week, the Browns had very little
success running the ball. Yet for the season they’ve been
solid with the rookie duo of Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West.
The more effective player for fantasy owners has been Crowell,
who has eight rushing scores despite having fewer carries than
West. Crowell is a solid flex option this week against Carolina’s
ragged run defense.
The Panthers are 21st in the league in run defense and tied for
25th in rushing touchdowns yielded. Despite those poor numbers
against the run, they’ve only allowed the 13th-most fantasy
points in the league to running backs, but it won’t take
much to vault them into the top-10 in fantasy points allowed to
players at the position.
Projections:
Johnny
Manziel: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 30 rush yds
Isaiah
Crowell: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Terrance
West: 40 rush yds
Josh
Gordon: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Andrew
Hawkins: 35 rec yds
Taylor
Gabriel: 15 rec yds
Jordan
Cameron: 25 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton, who missed last week’s
contest after injuries sustained in a car accident, has been practicing
this week, and though it won’t be known until around game
time if he’ll play, reports have been favorable. However,
fantasy owners should take caution putting a recently injured
mobile quarterback in their lineups against a team that has severely
limited fantasy points to QBs. There’s also risk in playing
Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen, but neither is coming off fractured
vertebrae (like Newton) and each has a track record of success
too good to ignore.
The Browns are seventh in the NFL in pass defense and tied for
seventh in passing scores surrendered. They have given up the
13th-fewest fantasy points in the league to wide receivers, the
10th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, and only four teams
have allowed fewer fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Running Game Thoughts: DeAngelo
Williams missed another game last week, but has been practicing
this week, though his status remains in the air. Jonathan Stewart
has responded as the team’s lone back, having run for 75+
yards in three consecutive games. If Williams once again fails
to play, Stewart qualifies as a fantasy starter against a Browns
defense that is unable to stop the run.
Cleveland is second-to-last in the league in run defense and tied
for 21st in rushing touchdowns allowed. They’ve been better
than some of their competition in terms of keeping running backs
in check in the passing game, which is why the Browns have only
allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to backs and aren’t
worse.
Projections:
Cam
Newton: 250 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 20 rush yds
Jonathan
Stewart: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Kelvin
Benjamin: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Philly
Brown: 35 rec yds
Jerricho
Cotchery: 25 rec yds
Greg
Olsen: 80 rec yds
Prediction: Panthers 20, Browns
17 ^ Top
Falcons at Saints
- (Smith)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan threw for more than 300 yards
last week against the Steelers, marking his third straight game
with at least 300 yards and bringing him over 4,000 yards for
the season. He also threw for a pair of touchdowns and has thrown
for multiple scores in four straight contests. Ryan did this last
week without the benefit of Julio Jones, who missed the game with
a hip injury and whose status for this week remains to be seen.
If he does play, he’s a clear-cut fantasy starter (as is
Roddy White) against a vulnerable New Orleans pass defense.
The Saints are tied for 26th in the league in pass defense and
tied for 21st in passing touchdowns given up. On a positive note,
they are tied for sixth-fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing
tight ends this year, but on the opposite side of that, New Orleans
has given up more fantasy points to quarterbacks than all but
three other teams and is tied for seventh-most fantasy points
allowed to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson
ran for 46 yards last week against Pittsburgh, and the five total
fantasy points he amassed marked just the second time in seven
games he failed to compile double-digit fantasy points. He should
be able to put another game with double-digit points against a
lousy Saints run defense.
New Orleans has the NFL’s 29th-ranked run defense and just
two teams in the league have allowed more rushing scores. Also,
they have surrendered more receiving yards to running backs than
any team in the NFL, and for the season have given up the fourth-most
fantasy points in the league to players at that position.
Projections:
Matt
Ryan: 285 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Steven
Jackson: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Roddy
White: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Julio
Jones: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Harry
Douglas: 50 rec yds
Devin
Hester: 35 rec yds
Levine
Toilolo: 10 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees threw for 375 yards and a trio
of touchdowns last Monday night against Chicago, and it was the
third time in four games he had at least three scoring passes.
Maybe more importantly, Brees also re-established a rapport with
tight end Jimmy Graham. Before last Monday, Graham had just 25
receiving yards in his last two games, but picked up 87 yards
against the Bears. While the Falcons have been hard on tight ends
this year, Graham did compile 82 yards (on eight catches) against
them in Week 1, and fantasy owners should expect more of the same
this week.
Atlanta has allowed more passing yards than any team in the NFL
this season but is tied for fifth-fewest passing scores permitted.
And though they have given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points
in the league to tight ends, the Falcons have allowed the 13th-most
fantasy points to quarterbacks and are tied for fourth-most points
allowed to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: The Saints
finally got injured runners Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas back
on the field, though Mark Ingram remains the team’s top
ball-carrier. And for Ingram’s fantasy owners, that is a
very good thing at least this week against Atlanta, who has allowed
runners to waltz into the end zone all year.
The Falcons are 20th in the league against the run but no squad
has surrendered more rushing scores. They’ve also permitted
the third-most receiving yards by opposing backs, which all adds
up to fantasy points galore. In fact, Atlanta has allowed more
fantasy points to running backs this season than any other team
in the NFL.
Projections:
Drew
Brees: 310 pass yds, 2 TD
Mark
Ingram: 85 rush yds, 2 TD
Pierre
Thomas: 20 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Kenny
Stills: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Marques
Colston: 60 rec yds
Nick
Toon: 35 rec yds
Jimmy
Graham: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Saints 28, Falcons 21
^ Top
Packers at Buccaneers
- (Smith)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Something very odd happened last week in
Buffalo, as Aaron Rodgers actually had a lousy game, throwing
for 185 yards without a touchdown and two interceptions. It was
the first time this season he failed to throw a touchdown and
only the second time since Week 3 he didn’t throw at least
two scores. Rodgers’ fantasy owners needn’t worry
and neither should those with Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb, as
all three should be starting for fantasy owners and plenty of
production should be expected against the poor pass defense of
Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers rank 24th in the NFL against the pass and are tied
for 26th in passing touchdowns allowed. They rank in the middle
of the league in terms of fantasy points given up to tight ends,
but have surrendered the 11th-most points to quarterbacks and
the sixth-most points to opposing wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Lost amid
the struggles last week of Rodgers was the fact that Eddie Lacy
had nearly 100 rushing yards and a touchdown against Buffalo.
Lacy has a rushing score in four of his last five games and has
more than 95 rushing yards in three of his last four contests.
He’s among the top fantasy point collectors at his position
and remains a RB1 this week against the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay is 19th in the league against the run and tied for 21st
in rushing scores given up. They’ve also allowed opposing
backs to score five times via receptions, which is at least part
of the reason why the team has surrendered the 10th-most fantasy
points in the NFL to running backs.
Projections:
Aaron
Rodgers: 270 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Eddie
Lacy: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Jordy
Nelson: 110 rec yds, 2 TD
Randall
Cobb: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Andrew
Quarless: 35 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: There is little to like about the Tampa
passing game but for rookie Mike Evans. Sure, Josh McCown seems
to have gotten Vincent Jackson back into the flow a bit, but Jackson
still has just a pair of touchdowns this year and none since Week
4. Evans, on the other hand, scored last week and has 11 touchdowns
this season. He hasn’t been amassing many yards of late,
but does have a very, very good match-up this week against the
Packers.
Green Bay is 15th in the league in pass defense and tied for 18th
in passing scores surrendered. They are 16th in fantasy points
allowed to quarterbacks and a little better than that in points
given up to tight ends, but the Packers have also allowed the
ninth-most fantasy points in the NFL to wideouts, and only Philadelphia
has allowed more touchdowns to players at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: Apparently,
Doug Martin lives. At least, that’s what it seemed like
last week when he actually went out and performed, with 96 rushing
yards on 14 carries. It was the first time all year that Martin
amassed at 60 yards on the ground, and just the second time he
had at least 50 yards. But even with a favorable match-up this
week, fantasy owners shouldn’t be placing any trust in Martin
unless truly desperate.
The Packers are 26th in the NFL in run defense and 20th in rushing
touchdowns allowed. Yet they’re also one of just nine teams
to have allowed fewer than two receiving scores by running backs
and are 17th in fantasy points allowed to players at that position.
Projections:
Josh
McCown: 215 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Doug
Martin: 45 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Charles
Sims: 25 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Vincent
Jackson: 90 rec yds
Mike
Evans: 65 rec yds, 2 TD
Luke
Stocker: 10 rec yds
Prediction: Packers 31, Buccaneers
17 ^ Top
Eagles at Redskins
- (Thorne)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Taking advantage of the scheduling vacuum
between the college football regular season and bowl season, the
NFL will once again play regular season games on a Saturday; the
first of which is this weekend. For Philadelphia this means they
have one fewer day to brood over their loss in Week 15, almost
certainly costing themselves the division title and quite possibly
spoiling their hopes at even earning a Wildcard playoff berth.
The loss marked the second time in as many weeks QB Mark Sanchez
underwhelmed in the box score and on the field, gaining fewer
than 100 yards in Week 14 and failing to find the endzone in the
most recent contest. Despite his struggles he’s slated to
start again on Saturday, with the man he replaced due to injury,
QB Nick Foles (collarbone), still unable to return to action.
After a promising start Sanchez has sputtered down the stretch
and reverted to the days of making mistakes and costing his team
a chance at victory. In seven games he’s just twice gone
without an interception and has never recorded more than two touchdowns
in a contest. Though he previously gained more than 300 yards
through the air in three consecutive starts, in the last three
he has just one game beyond 220 passing yards. The offensive downturn
has affected the pass catchers as well, but none more than WR
Jordan Matthews. Over the last two weeks he has just two catches
and 26 yards to his name, lower production than any other stretch
this season; even over a 60 minutes stretch that would be the
second worst game of his young career. Even though WR Jeremy Maclin
has 95 yards or a score in three straight games, his phenomenal
upside has been noticeably limited by the struggles of the quarterback
but as the biggest Eagles receiving threat he still figures to
have the stats to justify a start in the fantasy playoffs.
Whatever post-season hope still exists now feebly balances on
the shoulders of QB Mark Sanchez, who in three starts against
playoff-bound teams earned one win and has thrown five touchdowns
with five interceptions. Thankfully for him the Redskins were
officially eliminated from playoff contention weeks ago, and even
before that they were a team already limping toward the finish.
Winless in six contests, Washington has held just one opponent
below 24 points during their skid, and has conceded 14 touchdowns
with forcing just two interceptions since the last time they won.
Though they allow only 238 passing yards per game, their touchdown-to-interception
ratio is by far the worst in the league, and only two teams yield
more yards per pass attempt. Saturday will be the first time for
the defense to face Sanchez, who is no better and arguably worse,
than the quarterback who shredded Washington for 325 yards and
three touchdowns without giving up a sack, interception, or fumble.
In their most recent contest the Redskins also allowed three aerial
scores without forcing a turnover from the quarterback, so the
only hope they have is for Sanchez to fail to bound back and find
at least a comfortable mediocrity in which to settle. Since Philadelphia
still has a top seven passing attack it is possible for a shootout
to erupt this weekend, but the chances of that are limited by
the lack of offensive mastery which the backup quarterback has
exhibited since becoming the starter.
Running Game Thoughts: Last week it felt like the fantasy universe
was about to implode after Philadelphia rushed for three touchdowns,
but none of them were scored by star RB LeSean McCoy. Instead,
RBs Darren Sproles (one) and Chris Polk (two) were called upon
to get into the endzone from less than five yards away, including
a pair of one-yard scoring carries. The top-three fantasy draft
pick currently ranks outside of the top 12 at his position, behind
four players who were either in time-share situations or were
no better than second on their team’s depth chart at the
beginning of the season. For all of the apparent shortcomings,
McCoy is on pace to have nearly as many touches as he did last
season, so his efficiency and not his usage is far more to blame
for the disappointment. On the ground the Eagles are in the top
eight for both yards and scores, but aren’t even in the
top half in terms of rushing efficiency, barely hitting 4.1 yards
per carry as a team. To his credit, McCoy also has a personal
mark of 4.1 per carry, but has found the endzone only four times
of the total 14 recorded by Philadelphia ball carriers. If fantasy
owners have stuck with him this far it’ll be hard to turn
away from him now, but considering the investment it took to land
McCoy there won’t be many people happy with how his season
has turned out.
The discontent of McCoy owners may continue for another week
as the Redskins will look to bottle him up for the second time
this season. In their Week 3 matchup the stud running back was
held to 22 yards on 19 carries, marking the only time all season
he had more than 12 touches and failed to gain at least 50 yards.
In the five weeks since their bye Washington has allowed just
3.4 yards per carry, helping them improve to the seventh best
run defense in the league in terms of yards, and no worse than
ninth in any major rushing category. Despite losing every game
since their bye in Week 10, no ball carrier has gained 90 yards
against Washington and all but two have been held below 50. The
Redskins haven’t allowed a rushing score in two straight
contests, so even if McCoy is given opportunities near the goal
line it’s possible that he still might not be able to hit
pay dirt. A stifling performance earlier in the season and a recent
string of impressive games for Washington all suggest that McCoy
may be in for yet another disappointing fantasy performance.
Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
LeSean McCoy: 70 rush yds
Darren Sproles: 10 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Jeremy Maclin: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Jordan Matthews: 35 rec yds
Zach Ertz: 20 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: The ongoing saga of QB Robert Griffin III
and Coach Jay Gruden will be temporarily pacified for at least
this week. With QB Colt McCoy (neck) pulled from the Week 14 contest
after re-aggravating the injury that jeopardized his availability
in the first place, the Redskins have elected to continue to with
QB Robert Griffin III under center for at least the time being.
In a press conference Tuesday, Gruden left the door open for backup
QB Kirk Cousins to potentially see playing time before the end
of the season, but beyond that uncertainty he offered minimal
insight. In playing most of the game last week, Griffin took seven
sacks, and to most viewers appeared to take his time getting up
after several of those hits. The revolving door of Redskins quarterbacks
has still been able to put together a top ten passing ranking,
but the inconsistencies have held them to the sixth lowest touchdown
total through the air. Explosive plays have salvaged an otherwise
dreadful aerial display, with Washington having the fourth highest
mark for yards per attempt. The principle reason for this efficiency
is WR DeSean Jackson, whose 19.1 yards per reception is the best
in the league, and his 13 plays of 20 or more receiving yards
is equal to the total of the next two most explosive wide receivers.
Even though he is clearly the pass catcher to own in Washington,
fantasy owners should be aware that Jackson has played in six
games with Griffin at quarterback, and only once has he caught
a touchdown pass or gained at least 65 yards.
Adding to the drama already present on the Washington sideline,
Jackson will be facing his former team for the second time this
weekend, and yet again he has found himself at the center of bulletin
board material coming from both teams. In their previous matchup
he caught an 81-yard touchdown pass from Cousins, relying almost
entirely on speed and poor defensive coverage, and beyond that
was held to four receptions on 10 targets for 36 yards. On Saturday
it will be Griffin under center, who on the season has been significantly
more conservative with his passes, favoring shorter and safer
routes rather than taking shots deep down the field. The Eagles
may be concerned that CB Bradley Fletcher will be targeted again
this week after being beaten for three scores in Week 14, but
the man responsible for all of those catches is a big and physical
receiver; Jackson is neither of those things. As a bottom five
defense Philadelphia hasn’t been good against the pass often
this season, but with Griffin returning to the starting role they
may find reprieve this weekend; he’s not thrown more than
one touchdown pass in any game this season, and despite completing
at least two-thirds of his passes in five of his seven appearances
he has yet to reach 270 yards through the air.
Running Game Thoughts: In what felt like it was a microcosm of
the Redskins season, last Sunday a scoring review overturned a
touchdown call that was originally deemed worthy following an
eight-yard scramble and dive for the pylon by QB Robert Griffin
III. Yet to score with his legs in seven appearances (four complete
games) this year, Griffin has looked hesitant as a runner whereas
in his first two seasons it was his duel threat abilities which
made him so valuable. Had it stood that touchdown would have been
the first for Griffin as a runner since Week 17 of his rookie
2012 season. He has gotten more conservative as a ball carrier
over time, which was to be expected, but there have been many
times this year where Griffin has presented no real threat to
the defense with his feet. Between these tendencies and his previous
absences due to injury, the Washington ground game has suffered;
they are ranked as the 20th rushing offense and are one of only
three teams to not have recorded a single run of longer than 30
yards. The bulk of the running game has been handled by RB Alfred
Morris who averages 68 rushing yards per game despite recording
a total of 66 yards from scrimmage in his last two contests combined.
He has averaged fewer than four yards per carry in each of his
last three games while also not finding the endzone, making that
the second such streak this season.
Like the rest of the Redskins offense the running game has been
inconsistent, and the player on the team with the most total touches
of any kind is not immune to the ups and downs this season has
brought them. It would be hard to imagine the offense being much
worse than they’ve been recently, but it’s also not
reasonable to expect them to be much better in any single area,
meaning the Eagles defense should be able to contain the often
uninspiring Washington attack on both the ground and through the
air. In facing top three rushing attacks in each of the last three
weeks, Philadelphia has yielded just 3.5 yards per carry, at least
a full yard less than their opponent has averaged over the course
of the season. With the Redskins picking up 4.3 yards per carry,
a similar performance from the Eagles would allow the offense
right around three yards per attempt. Though that stifling of
a run defense isn’t a to be expected, since Washington averages
fewer than 25 carries per game they’ll be hard pressed to
improve on their season mark of 106 yards per contest regardless
of how well the Eagles play defense.
Projections:
Robert Griffin III: 220 pass yds, 35 rush yds, 1 INT
Alfred Morris: 65 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Roy Helu: 10 rush yds, 15 rec yds
DeSean Jackson: 50 rec yds
Pierre Garcon: 65 rec yds
Jordan Reed: 25 rec yds
Prediction: Eagles 23, Redskins
10 ^ Top
Vikings at Dolphins
- (Thorne)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Of all the games being played this weekend
that have direct playoff implications, this is not one of them.
Even in the world of fantasy football playoffs, few if any significant
contributions are expected to emerge from this Week 16 gem. For
rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater though, this game is another on the
path to his development as an NFL signal caller, and potentially
on his ascension as the face of the Vikings franchise. In 12 starts
this season the young quarterback has thrown for 300 yards on
three occasions, including back to back performances in the last
two weeks. He’s also completed 70% or more of his passes
thrice, all of which have occurred consecutively in the most recent
games of the season. After a dreadful start which included zero
touchdowns in three games and a contest with a trio of interceptions,
Bridgewater has thrown for 11 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions
over the last eight weeks. Though none of the statistics are spectacular
by themselves, in combination they show the development of a young
quarterback who may be growing into a legitimate NFL starter.
When viewed against the backdrop of the rest of the league, he
doesn’t even crack the top 20 for fantasy rankings at his
position, and as a passing offense Minnesota ranks above just
five other teams. The only Vikings player worth considering in
redraft leagues is WR Greg Jennings, with 38 yards or better in
four straight contests and three receiving touchdowns during that
time. He’s proven to be a trusted target in the scoring
area, which gives him value for several desperate fantasy owners.
Few teams are as stifling against the pass as are the Dolphins;
by yielding just 209 yards through the air per game and a measly
6.4 yards per attempt, they rank in the top four for both categories.
In the areas of touchdowns allowed, interceptions forced, sacks
recorded, and opponent completion percentage, Miami is no worse
than average, so even their weaknesses aren’t particularly
exploitable. The Dolphins have lost four of their last six games
to drop to 7-7 on the year, and have faced three Super Bowl winning
quarterbacks in those four losses. None of that trio threw for
290 yards, two threw interceptions, and only one scored more than
a pair of touchdowns. The Dolphins recorded only two total sacks
against those three signal callers, significantly below their
season average of more than two per game. Miami is successful
against the pass when they can disrupt the line of scrimmage,
force incompletions, and capitalize on mistakes made by the quarterbacks.
With an understandable lack of experience and the fourth worst
offensive line in the league, Bridgewater is likely to more than
have his hands full against Miami on Sunday.
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie quarterbacks are greatly aided
by a powerful running game, but unfortunately for Bridgewater
he’s not been blessed with such an offensive counterweight.
Despite Minnesota averaging 112 rushing yards, no individual ball
carrier consistently records more than 49 yards per contest, and
Bridgewater himself adds nearly 20 to the team total each game.
Between injuries and futility no Vikings running back has recorded
even 540 rushing yards this year, and unless RB Matt Asiata is
allowed to dominate backfield touches and the team decides to
enhance their focus on the rushing attack, it’s not guaranteed
that he’ll reach that mark either. Although the team acquired
Ben Tate several weeks ago, he’s seen no more than 13 snaps
in any single game, making him ever-so-slightly useful on the
field and virtually useless to fantasy owners. With no legitimate
speed back and a struggling offensive line, the stats may suggest
otherwise but the Vikings have one of the worst rushing offenses
in the league.
It doesn’t take much to challenge the Minnesota running
game, and thanks to those low standards the Dolphins run defense
should be up to that task. Allowing 122 yards per game on the
ground, Miami narrowly escapes the bottom ten, and their mark
of 4.4 yards per carry puts them squarely inside the bottom quarter
of the league. The only aspect of the Dolphins run defense which
is optimistically mediocre is their apparent ability to keep opponents
out of the endzone, where they are tied for 15th fewest scores
allowed on the ground. Their downfall in recent weeks has been
run defense, but with one of the worst rushing attacks coming
to town there is reason for Miami to believe they’ve been
graced with an opponent who may actually be able to make the Dolphins
look impressive.
Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 225 pass yds, 30 rush yds, 1 INT
Matt Asiata: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Ben Tate: 10 rush yds
Greg Jennings: 40 rec yds
Charles Johnson: 55 rec yds
Kyle Rudolph: 30 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: After an impressive explosion in the middle
of the season QB Ryan Tannehill has since cooled dramatically,
recording more interceptions than touchdowns over the last three
games. As a team the aerial attack has primarily been less than
impressive, ranking 20th through the air and landing just above
average for touchdowns thrown. One of the most telling statistics
about the Dolphins passing game is their sixth worst mark for
yards gained per attempt, despite Tannehill having the seventh
highest completion percentage. Though he may be connecting on
the majority of their passes, Miami isn’t able to push the
ball down the field and presents very little in the way of a deep
receiving threat. The closest they have is speedy WR Mike Wallace,
but an apparent inability of him and Tannehill to get on the same
page has largely limited the long passing game. Last week was
a rare occurrence for the duo, with Tannehill and Wallace twice
connecting for more than 30 yards. The continued growth of WR
Jarvis Landry has afforded Wallace better opportunities to beat
coverage, but prior to Week 15 he had yet to truly take advantage.
From a fantasy perspective Wallace is nearly touchdown-dependent,
Landry tends to record enough yardage to gamble on his ability
to find the endzone, and Tannehill is effective enough with his
feet to usually make up for some of the shortcomings he’s
experienced recently as a passer. However, none are consistent
enough to count on in the fantasy playoffs.
One of the most overlooked units in football may be the Vikings
pass defense. They rank sixth in yards allowed per game and are
tied for the sixth most sacks recorded this season. While they’re
not without flaws, they rank near or better than average in the
remaining categories, and have helped to put their rookie quarterback
in situations where he doesn’t have to play beyond himself.
Their performances as a defense have, for at least one more week,
preserved the possibility of an 8-8 season, which would make it
only the second time in five years they didn’t finish with
a losing record. One area where they would like to improve is
in touchdowns allowed, as they’re currently riding a 12-game
skid for conceding at least one score through the air. While it
should increase the competitiveness of the contest, the offensive
and defensive counterparts in the passing game don’t seem
to have an obvious weakness where the other exhibits a position
if strength. Look for Tannehill and the Miami offense to continue
to stew in their recent mediocrity, and for the Vikings defense
to do little to force them too far in either direction away from
average.
Running Game Thoughts: Even though Miami ball carriers have struggled
in the ground attack all year, usually the Dolphins gave enough
carries to enough players to piece together a reasonable rushing
effort. On the season they have averaged 113 yards per game as
a team, but no individual averages 60 or better. The leader of
the Dolphins backfield is RB Lamar Miller, who has earned 51%
of team touches and gained 52% of the yards. Aside from Tannehill
whose scrambles understandably earn more yards per attempt, the
remaining Miami ball carriers also have an approximately equal
proportion of touches and yards. This trend suggests that all
of the Dolphins running backs, at least within reasonable rounding
error, are essentially equal aside for the number of attempts
they are given. This is important because RB Daniel Thomas has
yet to practice this week, meaning that rookie RB Damien Williams
will be in line for an increased role as the primary backup to
Miller. In the last six games Miami ball carriers have recorded
just three rushing touchdowns, and none have been scored in the
two most recent contests, so without Miller receiving the vast
majority of the backfield workload there is limited potential
for any Dolphins running back to significantly contribute to fantasy
scores this weekend.
The saving grace for Miller and the Miami running game is that
the Vikings are one of the worst when it comes to defending against
the run. Minnesota ranks in the bottom ten for yards allowed per
game and per carry, and they’re barely better than average
for surrendering rushing scores. That being said, they have not
allowed a touchdown on the ground in three straight contests,
so they may be tightening up just in time to continue the Dolphins
recent rushing misery. The offensive style of Miami looks to quickly
take advantage of space, either through quick passes, downhill
runs, or even read-options plays with Tannehill. If the Vikings
are able to adequately fill passing lanes they may be able to
force the offense to become one dimensional, and in that case
it’s possible that they hold Miami to a reasonable rushing
total as well as keeping them out of the endzone. Conversely,
mismatches or poor coverage could lead to consistent gains through
the air or on the ground, potentially setting Miller up with numerous
carries out of the backfield and several opportunities to challenge
for the goal line.
Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 200 pass yds, 25 rush yds, 1 TD
Lamar Miller: 75 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Damien Williams: 20 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Mike Wallace: 35 rec yds
Jarvis Landry: 60 rec yds
Charles Clay: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Dolphins 16, Vikings
6 ^ Top
Patriots at Jets
- (Thorne)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Now that the battle for the AFC East is
officially finished, New England has their eyes set on the number
one overall seed for the playoffs. With a tiebreaker in hand they
only need to win out against divisional rivals to secure home
field advantage. Like so many other years the Patriots are peaking
at the right time, playing the best football in the league since
the beginning of October. They’re leading the way with the
highest scoring offense since these two teams last met in Week
7 and also have recorded the third most total offensive yards
during that time. Though he is the leader of the offense, on paper
QB Tom Brady has been almost pedestrian over the last five games.
He’s thrown exactly two touchdowns in each contest and gained
at least 245 yards through the air, but with five interceptions
during that time he’s not demonstrating the accuracy and
decision making which has come to be expected of him. By comparison,
in the previous five games Brady threw 18 touchdowns and only
one interception with a low yardage of 261. The latest modest
totals from the quarterback still allow TE Rob Gronkowski and
WR Julian Edelman (concussion, Probable) to contribute through
the air, with each player gaining at least 85 yards and a score
in each of the last two contests. The downturn from Brady has
most affected WR Brandon LaFell; as the third leading pass catcher
on the team a decrease in attempts and yardage almost necessarily
comes out of his opportunities.
Regardless of how the teams matchup on paper, over the last five
meetings the game has been decided by three or fewer points on
all but one occasion. If the Jets hope to be able to keep the
game close, or even pull off a stunning upset victory, one area
they have to improve is pass defense. In their Week 7 encounter,
New York held Brady to a respectable 261 passing yards, but only
recorded one sack while also allowing three touchdowns and not
forcing a turnover of any kind. Little of substance has changed
on either side of the ball, at least with regards to the passing
game, and other than this contest being played in East Rutherford
there should be little difference between this and the previous
game. One of the reasons Brady is so good leading the offense
through the air is because New England tends to have an effective
run game as well, which of course opens up the play action passing
game, the area of the game where the Patriots can do the most
damage. The best chance New York has at containing Brady is by
limiting the rushing attack and forcing the offense to be one
dimensional. This plan carries great risk however, because the
Jets are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to
keeping opponents out of the endzone on passing plays, something
at which New England is ranked in the top four.
Running Game Thoughts: Though it didn’t result in a score,
last week’s 17-yard run from Brady did result in a great
deal of excitement on and off the field. The rare lengthy scramble
also seemed to kick start an offense which largely sputtered up
through that point of the contest, nearly 34 minutes of game time.
Even with the 17 from Brady, New England still didn’t hit
their season average of 109 rushing yards; they’ve not been
above average with that respect for four consecutive weeks, approximately
the same time frame in which Brady has been at or below par as
a passer. Despite RB LeGarrette seemingly assuming the lead back
role after being acquired in Week 12, most recently RB Jonas Gray
was given the majority of the backfield work. Beyond potential
performance differences in games or in practice, one possible
explanation for his unexpected workload increase would be the
“revenge factor” of Gray previously being on the practice
squad of the team New England played last week. That marked the
first time in three weeks Gray earned more than two touches in
the same game, however Blount was still involved in about a third
of the planned running plays. With the Patriots struggling to
establish a rushing attack neither Blount or Gray are solid fantasy
plays, and with the potential for a committee situation developing
their prospects are even worse; Blount is likely still the back
to own, but without any clarification before game time both should
be kept on the bench until further notice.
Squaring off against the Jets defensive front is another spectacular
reason to bury the New England ball carriers at the end of the
fantasy bench. The New York run defense allows just 87 rushing
yards per game and a miniscule 3.5 per carry; both marks are in
the top four, and with five touchdowns surrendered from 14 games,
the Jets are in the top five of the league for scores allowed
as well. The last time these teams played no Patriots ball carrier
gained more than 43 yards and as a team they didn’t even
reach 65 on the ground. In that contest RB Shane Vereen was given
primary backfield duties, but with the emergence of Gray and the
presence of Blount it is most probable that he’ll be used
primarily as a receiver out of the backfield. The key to beating
New England is to shut down the running game and force Brady to
rely solely on his receivers. More often than not the Patriots
signal caller is up to the task, but any stumbles or missteps
can potentially provide the opportunity needed for New York to
take advantage and try to find a way to prevent Brady and company
from completing the season sweep.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 275 pass yds, 3 TDs
LeGarrette Blount: 35 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Shane Vereen: 5 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Julian Edelman: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon LaFell: 45 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 80 yds rec, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Even in victory last week fans of the Jets
were unhappy, seemingly because they value a perspective draft
pick above getting back into the win column. Not everyone reacted
this way, but those reacting the loudest were certainly not happy
to move further away from a potential number one overall pick
in the 2015 NFL Draft. For at least the remainder of this year
QB Geno Smith will be the signal caller for New York, and despite
improved performances in the past weeks they are still the worst
rated passing attack in the league, gaining nearly 25 fewer yards
per game than the next worst squad. A lack of top end receiving
talent is just one of the many issues, and with WR Percy Harvin
(ankle) Questionable for this weekend their prospects are even
less uplifting. He did participate in Thursday so there’s
at least optimism that he may be available, but as a player who
relies on both speed and agility, lower leg injuries can significantly
reduce his ability to have a positive impact on the game. With
two total receiving touchdowns in the four games that Smith has
played in since being benched, no Jets pass catcher is worth the
risk in the fantasy playoffs, and the young quarterback should
be almost universally un-owned in all leagues.
Not only has Smith struggled to even get on the field until recently,
but against New England his futility has been even more obvious.
In three career matchups Smith has four interceptions and only
two touchdowns to his credit, though to his credit he has been
less bad in each subsequent meeting. As a team New England has
been somewhat permissive through the air, but they tend to make
up for it with sacks and interceptions at opportune times. Although
they concede almost 250 passing yards per game and have allowed
22 scores through the air in 14 games, both worse than average,
they are in the top ten for sacks recorded, interceptions forced,
and completion percentage allowed. Efficient passing attacks have
been able to find reasonable success against the Patriots; in
their three losses opponents have combined for seven passing touchdowns,
one interception, and six sacks surrendered, significantly better
than how others have fared in defeat. If Smith can protect the
football and the Jets are able to limit what they ask of him that
may prevent the Patriots from taking advantage of their abilities
to make plays, ultimately allowing New York to keep the game close.
Running Game Thoughts: Ranked second in both productivity and
efficiency, the New York rushing attack is in stark contrast to
their passing game. Although it was most notable in a 13-pass
attempt performance in Week 13, the Jets have leaned heavily on
their run game whenever possible. At nearly a 1:1 ratio of runs
to passes, only two teams proportionately favor the ground game
than New York, and only one of them has a winning record. The
“ground and pound” philosophy has been necessitated
by the lack of available talent in the passing game, but few team
who employ such a strategy will ever truly find success with it
in today’s pass-heavy NFL. For fantasy football players
however, minimal attention being paid to the aerial attack significantly
increases the value of Jets ball carriers. Even this is a double
edged sword though, as numerous running backs are required to
achieve the type of production New York gets out of their rushing
attack. Two ball carriers have earned at least 135 attempts, the
quarterbacks have combined for nearly 80 touches of their own,
and in seven appearances with the team Harvin has carried the
ball 20 times also. Neither Chris Johnson or Chris Ivory rank
in the top 15 at their position, and together the duo has recorded
just three games with yardage in the triple digits. Barring an
injury to one or the other, the nearly-equal division of labor
ensures that no New York ball carrier has a statistically impressive
day, capping the fantasy value of the entire team.
Even though Ivory has previously found success against New England,
the presence of Johnson means that he won’t be given as
many opportunities to carry the ball and physically wear down
tacklers. The speed of the Patriots, especially on the edge, should
limit the ability of Johnson to do what he does best as a ball
carrier. On paper, even if only because of how New York figures
to dilute their own potential, the Patriots should be able to
limit the rushing attack as well as dominating the passing game.
For the season, New England has been a top ten team against the
run, allowing 104 yards per game. Although they yield 4.1 yards
per carry they are still better than the league average, and with
only five rushing touchdowns conceded this season they have the
second best mark in the NFL. Regardless of how the statistics
stack up, these two rivals have played each other very close over
the past three seasons, and without a dramatic failure in one
or more areas, a close game is yet again the expectation.
Projections:
Geno Smith: 170 pass yds, 15 rush yds 1 TD, 1 INT
Chris Johnson: 60 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Chris Ivory: 45 rush yds, 1 TD
Eric Decker: 55 rec yds
Percy Harvin: 20 rec yds, 15 rush yds
Jace Amaro: 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Patriots 24, Jets 17
^ Top
Colts at Cowboys
- (Thorne)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Other than for pride and practice, Indianapolis
may find themselves taking it easy during the last two weeks of
the season. Having secured the AFC South title they’re already
in the playoffs, and with nothing more than a statistical possibility
at earning a first round bye, the league’s top passing attack
has nothing to gain even if they win out. Considering the importance
of QB Andrew Luck and the ever-present possibility of injuries
to star players, it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see
any number of high profile Colts play less than 60 minutes in
either of the remaining contests. Last week veteran WR Reggie
Wayne became the all-time franchise leader in wins and for games
played, so even personally there is minimal upside to playing
a full game before the playoffs start. His counterpart WR T.Y.
Hilton (hamstring, Questionable) has missed practice this week,
and the safe bet is for Indianapolis to hold him out so he’s
fully healthy for the playoffs. At full strength the Colts lead
the league in passing yards and in touchdowns thrown, so even
if Luck and company only play several offensive series they can
still contribute to fantasy rosters. Their potential to post huge
numbers likely outweighs the possibility that Luck and company
may not play a full game, but the health status of Hilton needs
to be monitored Sunday because as of right now his chances of
suiting up seem incredibly slim.
Any feelings of content from the Colts will not be met by Dallas,
who seemingly has everything to play for in the closing weeks
of the regular season. Currently sitting in third for playoff
standings, the Cowboys can earn a first round bye if they win
out and get a little help from other teams, potentially moving
them into the top overall seed. In the event they slip up though,
Dallas could find themselves missing the playoffs despite earning
11 wins for the first time since 2009. Defensively against the
pass Dallas is striving for mediocrity, very near or below average
in every major category. A matchup with the high powered Colts
could be the undoing of their season, but between the possibility
that Hilton may be held out and other star players may have their
snaps limited, there is reason to think that the Cowboys defense
may not be entirely overwhelmed this weekend. Luck will be the
best quarterback Dallas has faced this season, and is one of no
more than three who could be considered in the upper echelons
at that position. In the event he plays a full game and is looking
to air raid the Cowboys secondary, they will have no prior experience
on which to draw as they try to slow down the league’s most
prolific passer.
Running Game Thoughts: For those fantasy owners who picked up
RB Trent Richardson following the starter being placed on Injured
Reserve, the development of RB Daniel Herron has been particularly
infuriating. As a franchise Indianapolis invested heavily in the
former first round pick, suggesting that he would be used frequently
and thus worth of starting in most fantasy leagues. Reality has
been quite harsh to Richardson, where seemingly at every turn
he is being out-produced by someone supposed to be his backup.
Because the Colts spent so much to acquire him he continues to
be given touches, ultimately decreasing the fantasy value of the
more productive ball carriers around him. No amount of logic will
keep Indianapolis from splitting the workload between Richardson
and someone more productive, who in this case happens to be RB
Daniel Herron. Still listed as the backup, Herron has outgained
Richardson in each of the last four games, and averages 5.1 yards
be carry compared to just 3.4 for the starter. Regardless of the
turmoil in the backfield, perhaps the most impactful ball carrier
is actually the quarterback, whose 19 yards per game are the difference
between Indianapolis being slightly below average and them falling
easily inside the bottom quarter of rushing rankings.
Any hope of Richardson or Herron having an impact on the box
score will come down to them finding the endzone; against Dallas
this feat is easier than most. The Cowboys have surrendered 17
rushing touchdowns in 14 games this year, the second most in the
league. Although they average 110 yards against per game, right
at the midpoint for NFL defenses, Dallas yields 4.3 yards per
touch, barely escaping the bottom ten for that category. Since
their bye in Week 11 the Cowboys have held three opponents under
90 rushing yards, and individual ball carriers in those games
to less than 65 yards. In the other contest the team exploded
for 256 on the ground, with 159 going to one player; in those
four games Dallas has conceded eight rushing touchdowns. The Indianapolis
backfield timeshare may combine for an impressive day, but without
hitting pay dirt it is unlikely an individual runner to be worthy
of a fantasy start in the championship games for most leagues.
Projections:
Andrew Luck: 300 pass yds, 20 rush yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Dan Herron: 55 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Trent Richardson: 30 rush yds
Reggie Wayne: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Donte Moncrief: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Coby Fleener: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Regardless of how the Dallas defense may
play this week, the team claiming victory will have to come courtesy
of the offense. Despite a 16th ranked passing game on the basis
of yardage, the Cowboys are sixth in passing touchdowns and have
the eighth lowest mark for interceptions thrown. QB Tony Romo
has the second highest completion rate in the league, which is
even more impressive considering that Dallas has the second highest
mark for yards gained per attempt. Last week WR Dez Bryant found
the endzone three times, bringing his season total to a league-high
13. Behind Bryant there are four players with more than 330 receiving
yards on the year, though none have more than 565, suggesting
that the Dallas passing game really is Bryant and then everybody
else. In recent weeks the most consistent of the trailing four
has been WR Cole Beasley, with at least 40 receiving yards in
four straight contests and three scores during that time. Behind
him, TE Jason Witten has become more fantasy-relevant and WR Terrance
Williams has all but disappeared from the box score. Without an
abundance of yards to go around most Cowboys pass catchers are
close to being touchdown-dependent, and with most of the scores
going to Bryant it’s hard to justify starting any of the
other receivers; Witten only deserves a start because of the position
he plays.
Frequently last week Romo found Bryant against tight man coverage
and exploited the matchup he presents as a big, physical pass
catcher. All three of the scores came against the same cornerback,
and after cleanly getting off the line of scrimmage there seemed
to be little else for Bryant to do other than easily get both
hands on the ball and bring it in. While Vontae Davis is a stud,
Indianapolis isn’t known for having corners who can physically
impose their will on receivers, so if anything can be learned
from watching film it’s unlikely that the Colts will try
to press Bryant and not provide immediate help from a nearby safety.
Through 14 games Indianapolis has largely oscillated between mediocrity
and inconsistency; they rank between 10th and 19th in each of
yards allowed per game, touchdowns surrendered, interceptions
forced, yards conceded per pass attempt, and sacks recorded. Only
in one area, completion percentage, do they rank in the single
digits, but they’ve also faced some of the worst passing
teams in the league so this stat is hardly remarkable. The greatest
hope for the Colts is that Dallas once again struggles at home,
but if Romo and Bryant are on the same page it will be nearly
impossible to stop the aerial attack.
Running Game Thoughts: Not since Lorena Bobbitt and her husband
were in the news has so much attention been paid to one man’s
body part. RB DeMarco Murray (hand) had surgery on Monday to repair
a fracture in his non-dominant hand. All week the Cowboys have
made overtures that Murray will not miss any game time, but history
suggests that at least one week will be needed to get him back
on the field. He fractured one of the long bones in the middle
of his hand, so dexterity is not expected to be an issue even
with a brace, but pass blocking will all together be another story.
The forces present in pass protection are channeled through the
long bones of the hand when contact is made, making it potentially
unbearably painful. If that is the case, the presence of Murray
on the field would suggest either a quick pass where he doesn’t
have to block, or a running play. In either instance the defense
could key on that and Dallas would lose whatever advantage that
would be gained from unpredictable play calling. Though no announcement
has been made, it is expected that RBs Joseph Randle and Lance
Dunbar would both receive carries, with Randle probably having
the higher upside from a fantasy perspective. Any announcements
made before game time will be critical for making lineup decisions.
Regardless of what ball carriers are or aren’t involved
in the game, Indianapolis will still have to contend with the
Cowboys offensive line; though Murray has received all of the
accolades for his rushing achievements this season it is arguably
the O-line which is most responsible for his perceived greatness.
On the season Randle actually averages more yards per carry than
Murray, but this may be skewed by a relatively small sample size
of 34 attempts. On defense the Colts very nearly resemble their
counterpart in this game, with an elevated number of scores allowed
and yards gained per attempt despite a perfectly average yardage
total over the course of the game. Indianapolis has generally
been able to mask a subpar run defense with a stellar passing
offense, forcing opponents to throw the ball against the Colts
rather than take advantage of their deficiencies on the ground.
Assuming that the strength of Dallas actually lies with the offensive
line and not the star running back, the rushing attack may actually
benefit from a relative timeshare situation as it allows both
ball carriers to be fresh as they attack the line of scrimmage.
The last time Indianapolis faced a team with a strong running
game that also had a dominant presence through the air, the defense
gave up four rushing and two receiving touchdowns.
Projections:
Tony Romo: 240 pass yds, 3 TDs
Joseph Randle: 90 rush yds, 1 TD
Lance Dunbar: 50 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Dez Bryant: 85 rec yds, 2 TDs
Cole Beasley: 40 rec yds
Jason Witten: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Colts 24
^ Top
Chargers @ 49ers
- (Caron)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Things started off strong this season for
Philip Rivers. So well in fact, that many opined about his potential
as a league MVP candidate. But in the second half of the season,
things have fallen apart for Rivers and this San Diego passing
game. Rivers threw for multiple touchdowns in seven of his eight
games while throwing for 250-plus yards in six of those eight
contests. Since that point, Rivers has thrown for over 250 yards
in just two of six games and has only thrown for multiple touchdowns
in one contest. In the process, he has gone from being a borderline
top five fantasy quarterback to someone who is almost unstartable
in most formats. The most frustrating thing about the San Diego
passing game, is those who have been relying on Rivers' receivers.
While each one of them has shown up from time to time, there has
been practically zero consistency. Tight end Antonio Gates has
been a startable fantasy option but that's really only because
there are so few players producing numbers at that position this
season. Malcom Floyd, Eddie Royal and Keenan Allen have been almost
impossible to start due to their rollercoaster-like fantasy point
totals. Now with Allen on the sidelines with a broken collarbone,
the other receivers should all get targeted more, but that won't
likely make Floyd or Royal a player that should be trusted in
most formats, especially in an incredibly tough matchup against
the 49ers here in Week 16.
San Francisco has been excellent against the pass all year long
and they currently rank fourth in the league in fewest fantasy
points per game given up to opposing quarterbacks. They've held
opposing quarterbacks to one or zero touchdowns in nine of their
14 games this season and four of their past five contests. San
Francisco may be out of playoff contention, but their defense
doesn't appear to have received the memo. Look elsewhere for your
fantasy team if you can.
Running Game Thoughts: With Ryan Mathews unable to play this
past Sunday in an important inner-division game against the Broncos,
the Chargers again turned to the combination of Donald Brown and
Branden Oliver. The two backs rushed for a total of just 44 yards
on the day with neither player getting into the end zone as the
Chargers fell victim to one of the best teams in the league. Although
Brown and Oliver combined for 82 receiving yards, it wasn't enough
to make either one of them particularly enticing from a fantasy
standpoint. Now in a another tough matchup in Week 16, the Chargers
could again be without their starting tailback, Mathews, who has
missed practice throughout the week with an ankle injury and is
listed as questionable heading into Sunday's game. If Mathews
is unable to play, look for San Diego to primarily turn to Oliver
to take the role as the lead back with Brown being utilized sparingly.
No matter who touches the ball, though, the Chargers will not
have an easy time running the football against a San Francisco
defense that continues to be dominant. While they've been better
against the pass than they have the run this season, they're still
no slouches at stopping the ground game. They've conceded just
two rushing touchdowns over their past seven contests and no team's
running backs have exceeded 130 yards rushing against them in
a single game. If Mathews is unable to play, Oliver could end
up being a solid Flex option especially in PPR formats, but if
Mathews does play, this backfield should not be trusted at all.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 245 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Branden Oliver: 50 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Donald Brown: 25 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Malcom Floyd: 60 rec yds
Eddie Royal: 50 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: An incredibly disappointing season by the
San Francisco 49ers has led to major questions for the franchise
going forward. One of the biggest questions has to do with the
quarterback position as Colin Kaepernick has been one of the least
effective passers in the league this season. Kaepernick took over
for Alex Smith a few seasons ago and has certainly had moments
where he looked like a potentially elite player, but 2014 has
been a lost season for the young QB. From an NFL standpoint, a
16-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio isn't great, but it's
certainly not as bad as other players. Unfortunately, from a fantasy
standpoint, his numbers have been nothing short of awful. Following
another pathetic effort in Week 15 against the Seahawks, Kaepernick
has now fallen all the way to 25th in fantasy points per game
at the quarterback position. It's very clear that he is no longer
a viable starter in standard leagues and it's getting to the point
that he's barely startable in two QB leagues. With Kaepernick's
struggles, it's not particularly surprising to see that his receivers
have been incredibly disappointing this season, but especially
lately. Wideout Anquan Boldin had been the biggest contributor
in the passing game through the first 11 games of the season,
but has not been producing the numbers that fantasy owners expect
as of late. Boldin has just nine catches for 95 yards and no touchdowns
over his past three games. Every other receiver on the roster
has been every bit as bad, making none of the other players a
realistic player to consider as they go up against a San Diego
Chargers defense that has been surprisingly effective against
opposing quarterbacks, particularly as of late.
Over their past five contests, the Chargers have given up just
six total passing touchdowns and an average just 229 passing yards
per game...and that includes games against Peyton Manning and
Tom Brady. San Diego wouldn't normally be considered a tough defense
to pass against, but for the 49ers' ineffective offense, this
is simply not the time to start trusting them for fantasy production.
Running Game Thoughts: A veteran tailback who could stake his
claim in Canton someday, Frank Gore is very clearly slowing down.
Gore's 29 yards on the ground against the Seahawks in Week 15
were not even the fewest he's had in a game this season. In fact,
he's been under 40 yards rushing in six of his 14 games. With
only four total touchdowns and a complete lack of usage in the
passing game, Gore has simply not been a player worth considering
for fantasy throughout most of the year. With the 49ers now out
of playoff contention, it would be likely to see the team give
more opportunities to Carlos Hyde, the young rookie tailback who
figures to be the back of the future for the franchise. Sadly,
Hyde injured his back and ankle last week and isn’t expected
to play.
Gore and perhaps Alfonso Smith will be up against a San Diego
defense that ranks 12th in fewest fantasy points per game given
up to opposing running backs on the year. Worse yet, the Chargers
have been excellent against the position lately, having not given
up a single rushing touchdown since Week 9. While San Diego has
struggled a bit to contain opposing running backs in the passing
game, San Francisco has almost completely abandoned throwing the
ball to their running backs this season. Gore and Hyde have just
21 total receptions between them and it doesn't seem likely that
they will suddenly overhaul their offensive gameplan for a game
that is essentially meaningless. Gore (concussion) is only a low-end
RB2 this week, as he has been throughout the majority of the season,
as his only real upside lies in a goal line touchdown.
Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 195 pass yds, 1 TD, 25 rush yds
Frank Gore: 50 rush yds
Alfonso Smith: 30 rush yds
Anquan Boldin: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Crabtree: 45 rec yds
Vernon Davis: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Chargers 16, 49ers
13 ^ Top
Giants @ Rams
- (Caron)
Passing
Game Thoughts: It's a lost season for the New York Giants,
but don't tell quarterback Eli Manning and wide receiver Odell
Beckham Jr. who seem to be developing a chemistry not unlike some
of the top combinations in the game. Manning has struggled at
times, but one thing has remained fairly constant: he's getting
the ball to his big play rookie wide receiver. Despite missing
the first four games of the season, Beckham has ascended to the
No. 12 overall fantasy wide receiver on the season in standard
scoring formats. His numbers since Week 5 have been incredible.
Only once has he been held below nine fantasy points (standard
scoring) while he has been at 15 or more in half of those games.
He's been getting better lately, as well. Since the team's Week
8 bye, Beckham leads all NFL wide receivers in yards (866), receptions
(61) and he's second in touchdowns (6). While Manning hasn't been
able to find other receivers in the passing game at anywhere near
that pace, his connection with Beckham Jr. has made him a viable
low-end QB1 starter for those who are in need.
Unfortunately, in Week 16, the duo will be up against one of
the league's stingiest pass defenses, the St. Louis Rams, who
have given up just four passing touchdowns in their past eight
games combined; and that includes games against Peyton Manning
and Philip Rivers. They have had somewhat of a cakewalk schedule
in terms of passing games they've been against aside from those
two QB's, but this is still not an easy team to pass the ball
against. Now that their defense is getting healthy, they are reestablishing
themselves as a force to be reckoned with and the Giants offensive
line may not be ready for the task ahead of them. While Manning
is still a borderline starter and Beckham Jr. is an absolute must-start
in all formats, don't expect a repeat performance of last week's
12-catch, 143-yard, three-touchdown performance from the rookie.
Running Game Thoughts: A lingering ankle injury has made things
extremely frustrating for fantasy owners of New York Giants running
back Rashad Jennings. Jennings, who started the season off red
hot as one of the top backs in the game, got injured all the way
back in Week 5 and has not been the same since. He re-injured
himself during an impressive Week 13 game against the Jaguars,
and has since only been able to take three total carries over
his past two games. He has not been participating in practice
this week which could be an indication that he will sit out or
be used very sparingly again here in Week 16. With Jennings likely
to be out or at least limited, the team will look to rookie tailback
Andre Williams to again shoulder the brunt of the team's carries
as he has done quite a bit of lately. In Week 14, Williams rushed
for 131 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries in a blowout win over
the Titans. That gave fantasy owners some confidence heading into
the Week 15 matchup with the Redskins, but things didn't go nearly
as well in that game. Williams was only able to muster 44 yards
on 18 carries and he failed to get into the end zone. He's not
a very active member of the passing game, which limits his upside
particularly in PPR formats, but given the fact that he is a starting
running back, he will likely still fall in line as an RB2 here
against the Rams.
The Rams have been good against the run throughout most of the
season, having conceded just the sixth-fewest fantasy points per
game to the position on the year, but they are coming off of a
disappointing effort against the Cardinals this past week when
they allowed a lowly group of backup running backs to rush for
136 yards against them. Still, other than an awful day against
the Chiefs back in Week 8, the Rams have only given up a total
of three rushing touchdowns in their other 13 games combined.
That doesn't bode well for Williams' chances to make it into the
end zone given that New York's offensive line has looked lost
on the field on many occasions.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 235 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Andre Williams: 70 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Odell Beckham Jr.: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Rueben Randle: 50 rec yds
Larry Donnell: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: It would be hard to say that fantasy owners
have been disappointed with the effort they've gotten from backup
St. Louis Rams quarterback Shaun Hill since he took over as the
team's starter earlier. The journeyman backup QB hasn't done anything
special, but it would be hard to blame the team's lack of success
in the win column on him. Unfortunately, from a fantasy standpoint,
he hasn't been good enough to consider him or any of the players
in this passing game to be reliable fantasy options. One player
has begun to break out a bit, though, and that is wide receiver
Stedman Bailey. Bailey leads the team with 19 receptions for 310
over his past four games. While he's only scored one time over
that span, he is still by far the most productive pass-catcher
on the roster at the moment. Tavon Austin has remained a relative
non-factor in the passing game, but has been taking more carries
than usual as of late. Although that's not enough to make him
a viable fantasy option, Austin's explosive ability has made things
easier on other players in the offense as the defense has to pay
attention to where he lines up on the field.
In Week 16, though, it's too late to start trusting players in
this passing game. They'll be up against a New York Giants defense
that struggled early in the season, but has been much better over
their past three games against Jacksonville, Tennessee and Washington.
Over that three game span, the Giants have allowed an average
of just 225 yards passing and they've only conceded two passing
touchdowns. While none of those three teams are good or even average
passing games, neither is St. Louis. The only player who should
be considered as even a Flex option in this offense is Bailey,
who seems to be developing some chemistry with Hill down the stretch.
Running Game Thoughts: The up-and-down nature of the St. Louis
offense has not been friendly to the running game this season,
but there's one thing that has become clear: Tre Mason is the
guy. Mason has now touched the ball at least 13 times in seven
straight contests. While his 4.26 yards per carry average is nothing
spectacular, it's been enough to make Mason a fairly reliable
RB2 in most weeks. His game this past week against the Cardinals,
however, was awful. The Rams scored just six points on offense,
due in no small part to Mason's 13 carries for 33 yards and a
fumble.
While his job does not appear to be in any danger whatsoever,
those numbers are not very inspiring for fantasy owners as St.
Louis hosts a surprisingly tougher-than-you'd-think New York Giants
run defense here in Week 16. The Giants were horrendous against
the run to start the season, but they've really come on strong
here down the stretch. In their past four games, the Giants have
given up an average of just 78 rushing yards per game and they
have not conceded a single rushing touchdown over that stretch.
Aside from Mason's monstrous three touchdown performance against
the Raiders back in Week 13, he has only scored one other rushing
touchdown on the season. This is not a great matchup for Mason
despite the Giants being a bad team overall, so don't expect great
numbers here. The St. Louis offense just doesn't move the ball
effectively enough to give him numerous chances to get into the
end zone, so the realistic upside here isn't great.
Projections:
Shaun Hill: 210 pass yds, 1 TD
Tre Mason: 70 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Stedman Bailey: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Kenny Britt: 40 rec yds
Tavon Austin: 20 rec yds, 20 rush yds
Jared Cook: 30 rec yds
Prediction: Giants 20, Rams 16
^ Top
Bills @ Raiders
- (Caron)
Passing
Game Thoughts: The move from EJ Manuel to Kyle Orton has
probably been a net positive for the Buffalo Bills as a franchise,
but for fantasy owners, it hasn't been much to be excited about.
The Bills have been mediocre at passing the ball all season despite
having an impressive duo of young receivers in Sammy Watkins and
Robert Woods. Orton has been particularly weak lately, having
thrown for just four touchdowns with five interceptions over his
past five games. While he's been up against some of the better
defenses in the league in terms of forcing turnovers, the Broncos,
Packers and Jets are not great units in terms of actually preventing
fantasy points to opposing QB's, which means that Orton has been
disappointing even given his low expectations. What's been really
frustrating to watch, however, is the lack of production from
the player who many believed would be the Rookie of the Year coming
into the season, Sammy Watkins. Watkins started the season off
hot, but has been practically a non-factor since the team's Week
9 bye. Over his past six games, Watkins has exceeded 40 yards
receiving just once (Week 14 when he caught seven passes for 127
yards against the Broncos) and he has not scored a single touchdown
over that span. Meanwhile, Robert Woods has become the more reliable
option at least from a fantasy standpoint, but even he has given
fantasy owners a couple stinkers in a row now.
This unit should have a decent matchup this week, however, as
they go up against an Oakland defense that ranks 21st in the league
in fantasy points per game given up to opposing QB's. The Raiders
have given up at least one passing touchdown in every game but
one this season and they just allowed Kansas City's Alex Smith
to throw for 297 yards and two scores this past week. The Raiders
represent one of the worst touchdown-to-interception ratios in
the league so Orton's downside is about as low as it's going to
get in this matchup. If you're in a two-QB league, he's not a
bad option. Still, only Watkins makes for a playable option in
most leagues this week, as he still represents the type of big
game potential that other players in this offense just don't have.
Running Game Thoughts: Veteran tailback Fred Jackson continues
to give fantasy owners some decent, but not overly exciting fantasy
point totals. He has averaged only 52 yards per game on the ground
with one rushing touchdown over his past four contests, but he
has also averaged an additional 26 receiving yards per game over
that stretch. Jackson's contributions in the passing game have
been great for those in PPR formats, but if you're in a standard
scoring league, Jackson has only been a borderline starter most
weeks. While neither Anthony Dixon or Bryce Brown have been getting
many touches over the past few weeks, they remain enough of a
part of the offense that Jackson's upside has been very limited.
Now with the explosive C.J. Spiller expected to be back from a
collarbone injury that has held him out for most of the season,
there is yet another mouth to feed in this already low-level running
game. Of course, it's worth noting that the Bills have been up
against some good run defenses as of late, with the Bills having
gone up against the Broncos, Packers and Jets in recent weeks.
Here in Week 16, they'll be up against a friendlier run defense
in the Oakland Raiders. Oakland is the second-worst fantasy run
defense on the season, having conceded nearly 2,200 total yards
and 19 touchdowns to the position. This past week, they were abused
by the duo of Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis to the tune of 134
total yards and a pair of touchdowns. Fred Jackson should be a
solid RB2 here in Week 16 in what will be the easiest matchup
he faces all season. Try not to be too worried about the return
of Spiller, at least this week, as the team isn't likely to give
him a ton of carries in his first game back.
Projections:
Kyle Orton: 225 pass yds, 2 TD
Fred Jackson: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Sammy Watkins: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Robert Woods: 50 rec yds
Scott Chandler: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: There aren't many positives to take from
this season if you're an Oakland Raiders fan, but if there is
one, it's probably the fact that quarterback Derek Carr has looked
like the best rookie signal caller in the league this season.
Carr has worked with a below-average group of receivers, practically
no running game and a terrible offensive line, but has still thrown
for nearly 2,900 yards, 18 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions.
He's been good lately, as well. Since his poor performance against
the Rams back in Week 13, Carr has thrown for 254 and 222 yards
with four touchdowns and zero interceptions over his past two
games against two very good Kansas City and San Francisco defenses.
Wide receiver James Jones got into the end zone this past week
as he made a team-high eight catches for 57 against the Chiefs.
Meanwhile tight end Mychal Rivera has been coming on as of late,
making 14 catches for 148 yards and a touchdown over his past
two contests.
Unfortunately the happy vibes coming out of the Oakland passing
game may be short lived as they have one of the worst possible
matchups here in Week 16. The Buffalo Bills rank 2nd in the league
in fantasy points per game given up to opposing QB's and they've
been nothing short of unbelievable as of late. Over their past
seven games, the Bills have given up just two total passing touchdowns.
That includes back-to-back games of holding Aaron Rodgers and
Peyton Manning out of the end zone. To shut down just one of those
QB's would be amazing, but shutting down both of them is incredible.
Rodgers and Manning are two of the top candidates for NFL MVP
this season and they both have thrown for at least one touchdown
in every other game this season. Needless to say, Derek Carr and
the entire Oakland passing game needs to be on your fantasy bench
this week.
Running Game Thoughts: The Raiders are the league's oldest team,
but along with rookie quarterback Derek Carr, running back Latavius
Murray seems to be coming on here in what is a lost season for
the silver and black. Murray has taken over as the feature back
in Oakland, supplanting veterans Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew,
who have combined for just eight total carries over their past
two games. Meanwhile Murray has rushed the ball 35 times for 135
yards while adding 26 yards in the receiving game. Those numbers
aren't spectacular, but considering that the Raiders offense is
terrible as a whole, they're not too bad. Murray is an explosive
player who brings a level of excitement to this offense that they
haven't had in quite some time. Still, he's not a great option
against one of the best defenses in the league, the Buffalo Bills,
here in Week 16.
The Bills have allowed the eight-fewest fantasy points to opposing
running backs this season and they've held opposing running backs
without a rushing touchdown in 10 of their 14 games. If you're
looking for a bright spot, consider that although they did a great
job of shutting down Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning over their
past two games, the Bills have given up a total of 238 rushing
yards and four touchdowns to the Broncos and Packers running backs.
He still has the capability of breaking loose for a long touchdown
and it'll likely be because of Murray if the Raiders are going
to stay in this game, but fantasy owners shouldn't trust him as
anything other than a low-end RB2 in this matchup.
Projections:
Derek Carr: 205 pass yds, 1 INT
Latavius Murray: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
James Jones: 50 rec yds
Andre Holmes: 40 rec yds
Mychal Rivera: 50 rec yds
Prediction: Bills 24, Raiders 13
^ Top
Seahawks @ Cardinals
- (Caron)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson continues
to defy traditional fantasy theory this season with his incredible
pace not as a passer, but rather as a runner. Wilson has already
rushed for over 750 yards on the ground this season, which is
300 more than any other QB, and his five rushing touchdowns also
put him solely atop the leaderboard at the quarterback position.
His passing numbers haven't been terrible either as he has nearly
2,900 yards with 18 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Outside
of Doug Baldwin, none of the receivers in this offense have been
worth considering from a fantasy standpoint on an every-week basis,
but Wilson himself has been a top five fantasy quarterback because
of his dual threat ability.
Unfortunately, because he gains so many of his points from running
the ball, there can be a level of inconsistency in his game that
not many of the other top QB's have. For example, this past week
Wilson passed for just 168 yards and one touchdown with an interception
against the 49ers. He also rushed for just 27 yards on the day,
his lowest total since all the way back in Week 6. Still, even
in his worst game of the season, Wilson gave fantasy owners a
double-digit day for the 14th time in 14 games this year.
In Week 16, Wilson and the Seahawks will be up against Arizona
defense that has essentially been the only thing keeping their
team in first place in the NFC West. The Cardinals defense has
been dominant, having held opposing quarterbacks to single-digit
fantasy point totals in five games, including this past week against
the Rams when they held Shaun Hill to just 229 yards passing and
no touchdowns. Still, Wilson's fantasy owners of should not panic.
When Arizona traveled to Seattle back in Week 12, Wilson did have
a productive day, throwing for 211 yards and a touchdown while
also also rushing for 73 yards. It'll be a tougher environment
in Arizona as the Cardinals and Seahawks battle in what might
be the determining game for the NFC West division title, but Wilson
has been good enough that he cannot be benched at this point.
Running Game Thoughts: With rumors of his potential retirement
on the horizon, we may be seeing the end of Seattle running back
Marshawn Lynch down the stretch, or at least his final days in
a Seahawks jersey. He appears to be determined to go out with
a bang, however, as he continues to produce big fantasy numbers
and carry the kind of workload that most running backs only dream
of. Lynch has carried the ball 256 times this season, fourth most
in the NFL, which he has taken for 1,133 yards and 10 touchdowns.
His 34 receptions for 331 yards and four touchdowns have also
been a pleasantly surprising boost of fantasy production given
that he has not been a very active member of the Seattle passing
game in years past. Lynch has given his fantasy owners double-digit
fantasy totals in six of his past seven games, which also makes
him one of the most consistent backs in the league.
Unfortunately, the one outlier in that six-of-seven streak came
against the Arizona Cardinals, the team he will be matched up
with again here in Week 16. The Cardinals held Lynch to a season-low
2.6 yards per carry in that game while also keeping him out of
the end zone. That wasn't a rarity for the Cardinals, either,
as they have been great against the run all year. Their 11.6 fantasy
points per game average given up to opposing running backs is
second-fewest in the league and they've only allowed two teams'
running backs to rush for over 100 yards on the year. Lynch is
a must-start given his tremendous consistency, but this is not
a desirable matchup by any means.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 45 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Kearse: 50 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: "Next man up" continues to be
the philosophy of the Arizona Cardinals and head coach Bruce Arians,
but at some point, it has to be too much, doesn't it? The Cardinals
have plotted forward without quarterback Carson Palmer and remained
atop the NFC West, but with running back Andre Ellington (IR),
the offensive firepower had dwindled significantly in recent weeks.
Veteran backup Drew Stanton led the team to a 2-2 record in his
previous four games before himself getting injured this past week
against the Rams. A knee injury was expected to keep Stanton out
the remainder of the season, but reports are that he practiced
in limited fashion on Thursday. The news was shocking as the team
had previously said that they thought he might be able to play
in "about four weeks." Still, most believe that it will
be Ryan Lindley who gets the start here in Week 16 in what will
likely be the most important game of the season for the Cardinals'
chances to hold onto the NFC West. Lindley completed just four
of his 10 pass attempts this past week for 30 yards in relief
of Stanton and his mere presence on the field should be giving
nightmares to owners of any of the Cardinals' talented group of
wide receivers. Lindley has never thrown a touchdown pass in the
NFL while throwing nine interceptions in 181 career attempts.
No player in the history of the league has thrown more passes
without a touchdown than Lindley.
Needless to say, he is about as low of a fantasy option as could
be imagined as he goes up against a Seattle secondary that is
the best in the league. Seattle has given up a league-fewest 2,727
passing yards this season while allowing just 17 touchdowns and
forcing 10 interceptions. The 10 interceptions are lower than
many expected coming into the season, but they've been so good
at simply shutting down opposing passing games that there is practically
nothing to complain about. Not to mention, that interception number
will almost certainly go up here in Week 16 with Lindley behind
center for the Cardinals. With Richard Sherman likely to lineup
against Larry Fitzgerald this week, the only semi-reliable fantasy
option in this passing game suddenly looks to be untouchable here
in Week 16. Avoid everyone in the Arizona passing game at all
costs.
Running Game Thoughts: With Andre Ellington out for the season,
the Cardinals have been looking for a running back who can step
in and give them some decent production out of the position. It
appeared as if that back would be Marion Grice as he played in
relief of Ellington when he got injured in Week 13. Instead, it
was Kerwynn Williams who took over the lead role in Week 14 as
he rushed for 100 yards on 19 carries against the Chiefs. Williams
looked good in that game and most believed he would be in line
to start in Week 15 as well. But the Arizona coaching staff again
confused fantasy owners as they gave the start to Stepfan Taylor
who rushed for 61 yards on 14 carries. Williams still ended up
taking one more carry with his 15 for 75 yards, but suffered a
knee injury in the contest that has him listed as questionable
heading into Sunday night's contest. Given the unknown nature
of Williams' injury and his lack of history, it would be wise
for fantasy owners to look elsewhere here in Week 16 as the Cardinals
host the Seahawks.
Seattle has been more giving to opposing running games than they
have been passing games here in 2014, but they've still allowed
the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs
this season. The Seahawks have held opposing teams' running backs
to 50 or fewer rushing yards in six of their past eight contests,
including holding the Cardinals' Andre Ellington to just 24 yards
on 10 carries back in Week 12. The Cardinals are in for a tough
day in this game and given the fact that this game will be played
on Sunday evening and the unknowns surrounding the running back
position as a whole, now would be a wise time to find a nice spot
for Williams and Taylor on your fantasy bench.
Projections:
Ryan Lindley: 165 pass yds, 1 INT
Kerwynn Williams: 40 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Stepfan Taylor: 40 rush yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 60 rec yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 30 rec yds
John Brown: 25 rec yds
Jaron Brown: 20 rec yds
Prediction: Seahawks 23, Cardinals
10 ^ Top
Lions at Bears
- (Marcoccio)
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Vikings Xavier Rhodes covered Calvin
Johnson like a warm blanket last week, slowing down the Lions
passing game in Week 15. Johnson has long been vital to quarterback
Matthew Stafford’s success, as the big wide receiver will
almost always be Stafford’s first look and the ball may
go to him even when he’s double teamed. Last week however,
Rhodes shut that connection down and while Golden Tate stepped
up, as he did he did when Johnson was out injured, no other pass
catcher contributed much and Stafford totaled only 153 passing
yards with one touchdown on the day. Tate contributed 7 catches
for 38 yards and found the end-zone on a nice catch and run –
and most of the other receptions were dump offs to the running
backs. The Lions passing game has been very erratic this season,
but have generally feasted when they have faced poor pass defenses
like the one they will be facing this week.
The Chicago Bears’ defense has not stopped anyone all season
long. When these two teams last met, Stafford put up 390 passing
yards with 2 touchdown passes to Johnson. The Bears had no answer
for Megatron during that game and it’s unlikely they have
found one since. On the season, the Bears are allowing 272.2 yards
per game and have yielded an incredible 33 touchdowns through
the air. Look for the Lions’ passing game to find its way
back this week.
Running Game Thoughts: Joique Bell
had his best game of the season the last time he faced the Bears,
rushing for 91 yards with a pair of endzone trips. Despite the
return of Reggie Bush, it has been Bell seeing the heavy workload
for the team ever since that game. Bell rushed 15 times for 62
yards last week while also adding 4 receptions for 41 yards. At
29 years of age and nicked up all season, Bush has looked like
a shell of himself during the games he’s managed to play
and with the division title and a playoff spot on the line over
these last two weeks, it’s hard to imagine the team incorporating
him into the offense. Because of their strong defense, the Lions
have been looking to establish a more balanced offense this season
and Bell is making that a lot easier with his strong running down
the stretch.
The Bears-D has played the run reasonably well, allowing 110.2
yards per game and only 10 rushing touchdowns on the season. Those
statistics are partially a result of the passing defense being
such an easy target for opposing offenses. Look for the Lions
to keep the ball grounded on a December day in Chicago, especially
if the Bears do not generate much offense.
Projections:
Matthew
Stafford: 255 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
Reggie
Bush: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Joique
Bell: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
Calvin
Johnson: 100 rec yds, 2 TDs
Golden
Tate: 70 rec yds
Eric
Ebron: 20 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler delivered another pitiful performance
on Monday night and now has 18 interceptions on the season while
also losing 6 fumbles. While Cutler has put up 3,640 passing yards
and 28 passing touchdowns, a disproportionate amount of that production
has come in garbage time as he attempts to drag his team back
from a large deficit that he has been largely responsible for
putting them in. Despite paying Cutler like a franchise quarterback
this offseason, the team has seen enough and will turn to career
underachiever Jimmy Clausen. Clausen will make his first start
since 2010 and has a career 52.5 completion percentage with 9
interceptions and only 3 touchdown passes in 13 games. Brandon
Marshall was placed on IR after suffering broken ribs and a collapsed
lung and missed the last game leaving Alshon Jeffrey as the team’s
go to option. Jeffrey didn’t do much last week until the
game’s final drive, scoring a touchdown which made the game
31-15 with time running out. Unless Clausen clicks in much the
same way that another career backup, Josh McCown, was able to
last season, the passing game could struggle this week.
The Lions are allowing only 236.5 passing yards per game and have
managed to pick off as many balls as they have allowed touchdown
passes (19:19). The ball hawking secondary of the Lions could
spell big trouble for a quarterback that hasn’t started
a game in four years. The Lions can create pressure up the middle,
and the Bears offensive line has struggled in pass protection.
Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte played well on Monday night,
but the problem was, as it often is, he didn’t see enough
carries to help the team as much as he could have. Forte gained
78 yards on 16 carries and gashed a poor Saints’ run defense,
but Marc Trestmen, “the quarterback guru”, loves his
passing game even when it’s looking as bad as it did last
week. The Bears offensive line is solid in run blocking, further
making it questionable as to why the team would rather keep repeating
what hasn’t been working instead of trying a more conservative
ball control approach. In fairness, the team’s defense isn’t
very strong and at times the team must be forced to play catch
up, but turnovers by the team’s quarterback have played
an equally large role in creating big deficits on the scoreboard.
This would be a tough time for the Bears to look to establish
a running game, even if they were inclined to do so. The Lions’
top ranked run defense is allowing only 3.1 yards per carry and
63.8 yards per game with 7 touchdowns on the season.
Projections:
Jay
Cutler: 275 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 15 rush yds
Matt
Forte: 65 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Ka’Deem
Carey: 15 rush yds
Marquess
Wilson: 45 rec yds
Alshon
Jeffery: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus
Bennett: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Lions 31, Bears 20 ^
Top
Chiefs at Steelers
- (Marcoccio)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Remarkably it’s been over one full
calendar year since Alex Smith has throw a touchdown pass to a
Chiefs’ wide receiver. Smith has thrown 18 touchdowns on
the season, with all of them going to his tight ends and running
backs. The Chiefs have started pushing the ball downfield more
in recent weeks, and he managed a 9.9 yards per attempt this past
week against the Raiders. Albert Wilson, an undrafted rookie out
of Georgia State is in large part responsible for the new deep
passing attack since replacing Donnie Avery in the line-up. The
rookie hooked up with Smith for the Chiefs longest pass play of
the season in Week 15, 48 yards downfield. Tight End Travis Kelce
has arguably been the Chiefs most valuable player in the passing
game presenting a big target for Smith and showing superior run
after the catch skills for a 6’5” 260 pound target.
The Chiefs will never be mistaken for the early ‘00 Rams,
but Alex Smith is a good fit for the dink and dunk offense that
Andy Reid has installed and Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis have
displayed big play abilities out of the backfield.
The Steelers’ pass defense has not been very good at all
in 2014. The team is allowing 252.9 passing yards per game and
has yielded 28 touchdown passes on the season. Defensive back
William Gay intercepted a pass and returned it for a touchdown
last week on a pass thrown by Matt Ryan on Atlanta’s first
possession, but the Steelers then went on to get carved up by
Ryan for the rest of the game despite Julio Jones not suiting
up.
Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles was upset after last week’s
game for being “babied” by Coach Andy Reid when the
staff kept him on the sideline after taking a big hit in the red-zone
and with the Chiefs in control of the game. Charles entered the
game nursing and ankle and knee injury, and was limited to 12
carries for 52 yards. Knile Davis took advantage of the opportunity
scoring a rushing touchdown on the play after Charles was removed
and later taking a short pass from Alex Smith for a 70-yard touchdown.
The Chiefs feature a solid offensive line, two above average runners
and a ball control philosophy all of which adds up to a tough
day for opposing defenses.
The Steelers are only allowing 103.6 yards per game on the ground
and will likely be moving safeties up into the box to shut down
the Chiefs’ running game while daring Alex Smith to beat
them deep.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 25 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
Knile Davis: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Dwayne Bowe: 45 rec yds
Albert Wilson: 60 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 55 rec yds
Anthony Fasano: 20 rec yds. 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger is in the midst of the
best statistical season of his career. He has already thrown for
a career high 4,415 passing yards and only needs 3 passing touchdowns
in the last two games to tie his career high 32 passing touchdowns.
Antonio Brown has clearly been the focal point of the passing
offense and is simply uncoverable, as he runs precise routes with
incredible quickness. Brown has 1,498 receiving yards through
14 games and will easily surpass his career high set last season.
Rookie Martavis Bryant has slowed down since a mid-season streak
where he scored 6 touchdowns in five games, but at 6’4”
with very good downfield speed he could make a major impact at
any time.
The Chiefs have played tough against the pass allowing the second-fewest
fantasy points to quarterbacks, with only 199.2 passing yards
per game, but have given up 21 touchdown passes and have only
4 interceptions.
Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon
Bell has been the best running back in the league since LeGarrette
Bount was released following the team’s Week 11 game. The
team finally started giving him goal-line carries and he’s
rewarded them with 5 rushing touchdowns in the last three weeks.
Bell, despite losing 20 pounds this offseason, is still a big
back but shows incredible vision and quick footwork allowing him
to consistently break through the line and get to the second level.
Bell has been a true workhorse back since Blount was let go and
is the most complete back in the league as evidenced by his 76
receptions for 765 yards.
The Chiefs run defense has fallen in the rankings since the early
season and are now ahead of only the Saints, Giants, Browns and
Titans. They have however only yielded 2 rushing touchdowns with
both coming in the same game to the Raiders during a Thursday
Night upset. Bell should be in for another big week.
Projections:
Ben
Roethlisberger: 295 pass yds, 2 TDs, 20 rush yds
Le’Veon
Bell: 125 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Dri
Archer: 15 rush yds
Antonio
Brown: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Markus
Wheaton: 30 rec yds
Martavis
Bryant: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Heath
Miller: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Steelers
17 ^ Top
Broncos at Bengals
- (Marcoccio)
Passing
Game Thoughts: Whether as a result of age, injury, illness,
or game-plan, Peyton Manning and the Broncos’ passing attack
has stalled for the last three weeks. The team has favored running
the ball over those three games, with 105 runs against 78 pass
attempts and when Manning has thrown the ball his passes have
fluttered and sailed more than ever. Manning has only thrown three
touchdowns in the last three weeks with 2 interceptions. He is
still the smartest and most prepared player on the field every
week so even with his failing arm strength he can still get the
ball to the open man and let players like Demaryius Thomas and
Emmanuel Sanders make plays after the catch. The ankle injury
suffered by tight end Julius Thomas has limited him and hasn’t
helped matters as it gives Peyton one less bullet in his gun,
especially with veteran Wes Welker no longer a dangerous player
after the catch. It’s a strong possibility that the Broncos
approach this week with another run-heavy game plan, as they look
to exploit the Bengals’ defensive weakness while relying
on their defense that is playing at an elite level.
The Bengals’ defense is allowing 233.6 passing yards per
game, and has yielded only 14 touchdowns with 14 interceptions
so things don’t get any easier this week for a Broncos’
team that has run into some tough passing defenses recently. In
the Broncos favor - the Bengals haven’t consistently generated
a pass rush and only have 18 sacks on the season.
Running Game Thoughts: As stated
above the Broncos have gone to a run heavy offense in their recent
games, and running back C.J. Anderson and his fresh legs have
responded with flying colors. Anderson has dominated opposing
defenses gaining 478 yards on the ground with 5 total touchdowns
during his last four games. Anderson has consistently gained more
yards than what his blockers are giving him, churning out chunks
of yards with his burst through the hole and his low center of
gravity which makes him tough to bring down. Right now the running
game is working, and with Manning not quite right, it’s
safe to assume the team will keep relying on an Anderson centric
attack. Ronnie Hillman could be back this week, but he’s
expected to occupy a change of pace role if he is able to get
on the field. If not, rookie Juwan Thompson will act a spell back
for Anderson and see a handful of carries.
The Bengals have not been very good at stopping the run, allowing
124.8 rushing yards per game while yielding 15 rushing touchdowns.
The Broncos as stated are likely to continue to establish the
run and protect manning’s health, especially in what may
be some adverse conditions during a night game in Cincinnati.
Projections:
Peyton
Manning: 225 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 5 rush yds
C.J.
Anderson: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Juwan
Thompson: 35 rush yds
Demaryius
Thomas: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Emmanuel
Sanders: 65 rec yds
Julius
Thomas: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton played the game manger role
for the Bengals last week as the team rode its running game to
a blowout win in Cleveland. Truth be told, he wasn’t even
that good as a game manager but the rushing attack hid any deficiencies.
With Dalton’s inconsistent play, a heavy rushing attack
is likely the best approach for the team can take if they want
to finally advance past their opening playoff game. Dalton has
had his share of good weeks, but has also struggled in too many
games this season. He’s averaged 214 passing yards per game
with a 15:14 TD to interception ratio making him an average at
best fantasy option. A.J. Green struggled last week in his match
up with the Browns’ Joe Haden, but even with Haden out of
the game injured, Dalton was so bad that he couldn’t utilize
the dangerous Green. Green still shows the ability to dominate
opposing defenses when Dalton isn’t completely self destructing,
but unfortunately those days haven’t been frequent enough
this season.
On the season Denver is allowing 237.8 passing yards per game
and has allowed 26 touchdown passes against them. Those numbers
are somewhat inflated however by early season games where the
Broncos offense was clicking and forcing teams into catch-up mode
as early as the first half. Aqib Talib and Chris Harris have played
well in coverage and the Von Miller / DeMarcus Ware combo has
terrorized opposing quarterbacks. An appearance from “Bad”
Andy Dalton wouldn’t be shocking on Monday Night against
this tough defense.
Running Game Thoughts: Offensive
coordinator Hue Jackson finally turned the feature back role over
to rookie Jeremy Hill and the results were outstanding. Hill showed
nice power and inside running ability when Giovani Bernard missed
time earlier in the season, and it was on full display in Cleveland
as Hill ran for 148 yards and two scores. The talk heading into
the week was that Jackson would prefer to feature one back, after
both backs struggled in a timeshare, and Hill looked like the
right choice. The running game in general was dominant even when
Hill wasn’t the one toting the rock, as Bernard gained 79
yards and even third string back Rex Burkhead added 14 yards and
a touchdown.
The matchup is not quite as favorable this week however. The Broncos
are allowing only 71.6 yards per game to opposing teams. If The
Bengals will have any chance to win this game they must somehow
find a way to overcome the second best run defense in the league
and move the ball on the ground.
Projections:
Andy
Dalton: 245 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs., 25 rush yds
Jeremy
Hill: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Giovani
Bernard: 35 rush yds, 35 rec yds
A.J.
Green: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Mohamed
Sanu: 40 rec yds
Jermaine
Gresham: 20 rec yds
Prediction: Broncos 27, Bengals
20 ^ Top
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