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Inside the Matchup
Week 17
12/26/14

By: Sal Marcoccio | Brian Thorne | Nick Caron | Kyle Smith



IND @ TEN | JAX @ HOU | CAR @ ATL | NO @ TB

DAL @ WAS | NYJ @ MIA | BUF @ NE | PHI @ NYG

SD @ KC | OAK @ DEN | STL @ SEA | ARI @ SF

CHI @ MIN | CIN @ PIT | DET @ GB | CLE @ BAL
 Predictions - YTD
Rk Staffer W L %
1 Caron 44 16 73.3
2 Marcoccio 42 18 70.0
3 Smith 42 18 70.0
4 Thorne 36 24 60.0

Colts at Titans - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck has a chance to end the season as fantasy’s top point-earner with a decent game against the Titans. He’s had a couple less than stellar games statistically at the end of the year, but his season has been spectacular. T.Y. Hilton should also return this week, which will certainly help Luck. The only question for the pair of fantasy stars – and the rest of the Indy starters – is how long they’ll play against a very bad Titans squad.

Tennessee is 11th in the league in pass defense but tied for 18th in passing touchdowns given up. They’ve allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and the 14th-fewest to wide receivers but are 15th in fantasy points ceded to players at the tight end position.

Running Game Thoughts: Daniel Herron has been a more effective player than Trent Richardson since Ahmad Bradshaw went down and Herron replaced him in the lineup. Fantasy owners should have given up on Richardson long ago and focused on his teammates, with Herron likely providing a nice day for his fantasy owners against Tennessee.

The Titans have been porous against the run this season. Only the Cleveland Browns have allowed more rushing yards and only the Atlanta Falcons have given up more rushing scores. Running backs have scampered for over 1,900 yards against Tennessee this year, which is the most in the NFL and subsequently the Titans have allowed more fantasy points to backs than any team in the league not named Atlanta.

Projections:
Andrew Luck: 290 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Dan Herron: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Trent Richardson: 25 rush yds, 10 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 90 rec yds, 2 TD
Reggie Wayne: 55 rec yds
Donte Moncrief: 45 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 65 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The Titans lost to the Jaguars last week and even though Charlie Whitehurst put up decent numbers overall, he also missed tight end Delanie Walker with a bad throw in the end zone. Seeing as how Walker is the only player on the entire Tennessee offense worthy of being on fantasy squads, Whitehurst is probably not the most popular man among fantasy owners these days, but he has a chance to make up for it this week by finding Walker a few times against a team that hasn’t covered tight ends very well.

The Colts are 18th in the NFL in pass defense and tied for 21st in passing touchdowns surrendered. They are 15th in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks and have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends, but just six teams have permitted fewer fantasy points to wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: There is little to no running game to speak of for the Titans. Bishop Sankey has provided next to nothing in his rookie campaign, and the same can be said for the rest of the Tennessee backs. Leon Washington had a solid game as a receiver last week, but he’s not someone fantasy owners want to plug in during Week 17 on a whim.

Indianapolis is 15th in the league in rush defense but tied for 23rd in rushing touchdowns yielded. They have allowed the second-most receiving yards in the league to opposing backs, which is part of the reason they have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs.

Projections:
Charlie Whitehurst: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Bishop Sankey: 35 rush yds
Shonn Greene: 30 rush yds
Kendall Wright: 60 rec yds
Nate Washington: 40 rec yds
Derek Hagan: 35 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 65 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Colts 28, Titans 16 ^ Top

Jaguars at Texans - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles is about to end a rookie season in which he showed flashes, but not enough to be on fantasy rosters anywhere. He was lacking in weapons, and what he really needs is for Marqise Lee to mature on the field and Justin Blackmon to mature off of it. This week, the Texans are a less than formidable pass defense, but all Jaguars should be ignored by fantasy owners.

Houston is 24th in the NFL against the pass and tied for 23rd in passing touchdowns allowed. They have given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, but only the Eagles have allowed more fantasy points to opposing wideouts.

Running Game Thoughts: Jordan Todman had a 62-yard touchdown run against the Titans last week, but carried the ball only five times all game. Most of the carries were taken by Toby Gerhart, who responded with 53 yards and a touchdown of his own. But that was done against a horrid Tennessee run defense, and this week’s match-up with Houston will be much more difficult.

The Texans have the league’s 11th-ranked run defense and only two squads have allowed fewer rushing touchdowns this season. Houston hasn’t allowed a running back to gain at least 90 yards on the ground since Week 9 and is allowing the 13th-fewest fantasy points in the NFL to players at that position.

Projections:
Blake Bortles: 155 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Toby Gerhart: 40 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Allen Hurns: 60 rec yds
Cecil Shorts: 45 rec yds
Marqise Lee: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Marcedes Lewis: 10 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Case Keenum had a tough assignment last week going up against the Ravens and he performed how you might have expected – completing less than 50 percent of his throws with an interception and no scores. He looked for Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins often, though neither had a huge game. Keenum should continue to look for the pair of wideouts this week, and fantasy owners should expect better production out of both against Jacksonville.

The Jaguars are 20th in the league in pass defense but rank in a tie for 10th in passing touchdowns permitted. They are 17th in fantasy points allowed to both quarterbacks and wide receivers while allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Arian Foster ran for 96 yards last week against Baltimore, but it took him 25 carries to do so. If Foster gets 25 carries this week, fantasy owners should expect a whole lot more than 96 yards. He had 127 yards and a touchdown a few weeks ago against the Jaguars, and similar numbers should be in store this week.

Jacksonville is 27th in the NFL against the run and tied for 23rd in rushing touchdowns surrendered. They’ve held opposing backs in check during the last two games but for the season have allowed seventh-most fantasy points in the league to running backs.

Projections:
Case Keenum: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Arian Foster: 115 rush yds, 2 TD, 20 rec yds
DeAndre Hopkins: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Johnson: 70 rec yds
Ryan Griffin: 25 rec yds

Prediction: Texans 24, Jaguars 13 ^ Top

Panthers at Falcons - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: It hasn’t been pretty for Cam Newton most of the season, but he has had a pair of games with at least 290 passing yards, and one of those happened to have come against the very same Falcons squad he’ll be up against this week. About one-third of the passing yards Newton accumulated that day went to Kelvin Benjamin, who has been a bit up and down of late, but is someone fantasy owners have to trust in a match-up against such a bad pass defense.

Atlanta is ranked dead last in the NFL in pass defense but has allowed the fifth-fewest passing scores in the league. They have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends but have also allowed the 14th-most points to quarterbacks and seventh-most points (and most yards) to opposing wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: DeAngelo Williams is likely to be back for the game, though fantasy owners with Jonathan Stewart have to be hoping Williams doesn’t get too much time in the backfield. With Williams gone, Stewart has taken over and gained more rushing yards than anyone else in the past three games. Stewart should still be in play this week for fantasy owners due to the fantastic match-up, but expectations should go down a notch with Williams at the ready.

The Falcons have given up 1,700 rushing yards for the season, which is 18th in the NFL. However, they’ve also allowed 20 rushing scores, which is the most in the league. All but one of those scores have come via the running back, and as such Atlanta has allowed the second-most fantasy points in the NFL to players at that position.

Projections:
Cam Newton: 260 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 35 rush yds
Jonathan Stewart: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
DeAngelo Williams: 25 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Kelvin Benjamin: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Philly Brown: 45 rec yds
Jerricho Cotchery: 30 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 55 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan threw for 322 yards and a touchdown last week in his team’s win over the Saints, marking his fourth straight game with at least 310 passing yards. He has thrown nine touchdowns with only three interceptions during the streak, with his go-to guy being Julio Jones, despite Jones’ absence for one of those contests. Jones has amassed at least 100 yards in his last three contests, and though the Panthers have been tough against wideouts of late, both Jones and Roddy White should be in fantasy lineups this week.

Carolina has the NFL’s ninth-ranked pass defense while placing in a tie for 18th in passing touchdowns given up. They have surrendered the 13th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the 14th-most fantasy points to wide receivers but the 14th-fewest amount of points to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: Steven Jackson is expected to miss this week’s contest, leaving the running back duties in the hands of Devonta Freeman and Jacquizz Rodgers. Each player is certainly capable of making plays, but neither should be counted on by fantasy owners because the touches are likely to be limited for both backs against Carolina.

The Panthers are 19th in the league in run defense and rank tied for 23rd in rushing touchdowns allowed. They are in the middle of the league – 15th – in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, but from Week 9 on have allowed just a single back to gain more than 55 rushing yards.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 270 pass yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Devonta Freeman: 40 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Jacquizz Rodgers: 30 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Julio Jones: 85 rec yds, 2 TD
Roddy White: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Harry Douglas: 35 rec yds
Devin Hester: 20 rec yds
Levine Toilolo: 15 rec yds

Prediction: Falcons 27, Panthers 21 ^ Top

Saints at Buccaneers - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: The numbers say Drew Brees is having a really good season, but it just doesn’t feel like it. He threw for over 300 yards last week against the Falcons but with only one score and a trio of turnovers. The one touchdown Brees did throw was to Jimmy Graham, who ended a three-week scoring drought. Wideout Marques Colston amassed 80 yards in the contest and has scored in three of his last five games, making him a solid start against a bad Tampa pass defense.

The Buccaneers are 26th in the league in pass defense and tied for 23rd in passing touchdowns surrendered. They’ve been a bit better than average in defending tight ends, but have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks and fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram had a mostly miserable time against Atlanta last week, with only 38 yards on 13 carries, though he did find the end zone. Ingram hasn’t been picking up the yards quite like he did in the middle of the season, but he remains the Saints’ best runner and has a very good match-up, making him a must-start for fantasy owners this week.

Tampa is 20th in the NFL against the run and tied for 20th in rushing touchdowns permitted. They’ve allowed a running back to gain at least 80 yards in five of their last seven contests and backs have five receiving touchdowns against the Bucs, which is part of the reason why they’ve allowed the 11th-most fantasy points in the league to running backs.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 280 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Mark Ingram: 90 rush yds, 1 TD
Kenny Stills: 80 rec yds
Marques Colston: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Nick Toon: 35 rec yds
Jimmy Graham: 85 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The Buccaneers did pretty much nothing offensively last week against the Packers, with Josh McCown completing less than half of his 26 throws, none of which went for touchdowns to Mike Evans – or anyone else for that matter. Evans hasn’t gained at least 50 yards for five straight games, but he and Vincent Jackson remain the best – actually, only – fantasy options on Tampa’s offense, particularly against the Saints.

New Orleans is 29th in the NFL in pass defense and tied for 18th in passing touchdowns allowed. Only two teams have given up fewer fantasy points to tight ends, but only five squads have given up more fantasy points to wide receivers and just three teams have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin actually showed some life a couple weeks ago before tumbling back down to earth last week against the Packers. He had just 17 yards on 10 carries last week and though the match-up against New Orleans is a great one, fantasy owners can’t trust Martin.

The Saints are 29th in the league against the run and tied for 28th in rushing scores allowed. They’ve also given up the most receiving yards in the league to opposing backs, with a pair gaining over 120 yards against them. For the season, New Orleans has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points in the NFL to running backs.

Projections:
Josh McCown: 180 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Doug Martin: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Charles Sims: 15 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Vincent Jackson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Mike Evans: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Luke Stocker: 20 rec yds

Prediction: Saints 24, Buccaneers 20 ^ Top

Cowboys at Redskins - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Dallas can technically still earn a first round bye if they win and the divisional showdown in the NFC North ends in a tie, otherwise they’re locked in to the third overall NFC playoff seed. Chances are the Cowboys come out to make a statement against their longtime rival, ensuring that they stay in top form going into the postseason. The Week 16 trouncing of another division champion (Colts) suggests that Dallas is peaking at the right time. They opened the game with three straight drives that ended in touchdown throws, and QB Tony Romo became the franchise all-time leader in passing yards. For the season the Cowboys haven’t been particularly prolific through the air, but despite ranking below average for yardage, only three teams recorded more touchdown passes. Those statistics mirror the individual production of star WR Dez Bryant, who barely squeaks into the top ten for catches and yardage, but stands alone at the top of the touchdown receptions category. Since 2012 no one at any position has caught more TDs than Bryant. Behind him veteran TE Jason Witten has the second most yards and third most receiving touchdowns, and for each of the past four weeks he has turned in consecutive better performances. Topping his Week 16 totals may be tough though, with 90 yards and a score on a perfect seven receptions on seven targets.

Against the pass Washington has been the defensive counterpart to what the Cowboys have done all season, ranking worse than average for yardage and giving up the most passing touchdowns in the NFL. In the last five weeks the Redskins have allowed the most points to fantasy tight ends and the second most points to wide receivers, so Bryant and Witten could both be in for fantastic season finales. Despite winning their most recent contest, Washington surrendered 374 yards through the air and gave up two touchdowns as well. The saving grace for the defense was timely pressure in the latter stages of the game and a forced interception on a terrible decision from the quarterback. By most accounts the Redskins didn’t so much earn the victory, but rather it was given to them by way of errors from the other team, but nonetheless they snapped a six-game losing streak and will head into Week 17 looking for their first back-to-back wins of the season.

Running Game Thoughts: As the second best rushing team in the league, Dallas has relied on RB DeMarco Murray (hand) for the vast majority of the backfield work this season. Coming into Week 17 he is expected to break the franchise record for single season rushing yards, but with him needing only 29 to do so, it’s possible Dallas rests their star ball carrier after he sets the mark. After undergoing surgery last week Murray was able to suit up for the game, seeing 22 carries but picking up just 58 yards. Fantasy owners who played him were rewarded with another one-yard touchdown run, potentially salvaging a fantasy championship by doing so. That score became the sixth one-yard touchdown of the season for Murray, giving him a perfect record of conversions from the one-yard line. That score also gave Murray a touchdown in four straight contests, with five total during that span. As expected, other ball carriers were more involved last week, but Murray still handled just over half of the rushing attempts. With only the faintest hope of a first round bye, the smart play is for Dallas to let Murray gain the 29 yards her needs to become the franchise’s leading rusher, and then to usher in RB Joseph Randle for the remainder of the game.

Unlike the pass defense, through the air Washington is expected to provide adequate resistance as they’re in the top ten for both yards and scores allowed on the ground. Further highlighting the difference between the units, over the last five weeks the Redskins have been in the top quarter of the league against fantasy ball carriers, limiting opponent backfields to an average of 11.8 points per game. Assuming these numbers hold true, Dallas running backs aren’t likely to find the endzone but should do well enough on the ground to give Murray the record he’s chasing. For the season finale Washington will be without rookie LB Trent Murphy (hand, Injured Reserve) who is one of just three players on the team to record more than two sacks, force at least two fumbles (one recovery), defend a pass, and record more than 30 tackles (three for a loss). One of the others to do so is S Brandon Meriweather (toe) who was placed on Injured Reserve before the Week 16 matchup. With some of their season’s best performers unavailable and the league’s second best rushing attack coming to town, Washington ought to be concerned that their recent string of solid run defense may coming tumbling to an end on Sunday.

Projections:
Tony Romo: 225 pass yds, 10 rush yds, 3 TDs
DeMarco Murray: 35 rush yds
Joseph Randle: 60 rush yds
Dez Bryant: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Cole Beasley: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Washington has already locked up a top ten draft pick, but with a loss and a little help they could get bumped into the top five. After the dust has settled from the now-infamous trade for the QB Robert Griffin III draft pick, the Redskins will finally have another first round pick this upcoming offseason. To recognize the football symmetry which could come into play, Washington may end up in the sixth draft position, the same one they were in where they sold the farm for the man who would become their embattled and oft-injured starting quarterback. Last week was the first complete game victory for Griffin in 13 months, and the first for the Redskins win in seven contests. They’ve started three different signal callers this year, and reportedly Griffin only had the opportunity to play last week because of an injury to the only other quarterback to earn a complete game win. Playing for little more in Week 16 than pride in his current team and revenge against his former, WR DeSean Jackson recorded two receptions of at least 50 yards each. Griffin failed to throw a touchdown pass but did lose an interception, giving him three scores and four picks on the season.

Making matters worse for Washington, LT Trent Williams (shoulder) is listed as Questionable for this weekend after leaving the game in the fourth quarter last week, though he did return later in the contest so he may again be available for Week 17. The Redskins would certainly like to have him out there, as their 55 surrendered sacks this season is the most in the NFC. His presence would help hold back a Dallas pass rush which has recorded the second fewest sacks in their conference, and whatever protection can be provided would only help Griffin to try to correct his current upside down ratio of touchdowns to interceptions. To that point, the Cowboys are in the top ten for interceptions forced and scores allowed through the air, so even if the defensive line is neutralized it’s quite possible that the back seven could still make up for that lack of pressure. Last week Dallas was impressive against a team playing for nothing other than to preserve their health and energies for the playoffs, so with the Redskins playing for even less they could be in line for another impressive afternoon. Conversely, with nothing to lose and only pride to play for, their division rivals would love nothing more than to end their miserable season on a high note by knocking off the champions of the NFC East, even if the victory does nothing to change the playoff landscape.

Running Game Thoughts: For a team with such explosive abilities through the air, next to none of that translates to the rushing attack. Washington ranks 20th in rushing yards per game, but they are however slightly above the league average on a per carry basis. The one area where the Redskins excel on the ground is in finding the endzone; only six teams have scored more rushing touchdowns. On the ground Washington has scored 14 times in 15 contests, but prior to last week they hadn’t hit pay dirt in three consecutive games. The primary workhorse is RB Alfred Morris, with 67% of the team’s carries and 65% of the yards gained on the ground, but he has just 8 of the 14 Redskins rushing touchdowns. Backup RB Darrel Young has vultured three scores; on the year Young has 19 total touches for 94 yards and five trips to the endzone. Last week he was again filling in for RB Roy Helu (toe) as the primary receiving threat out of the backfield, but whoever is the No.2 back this week, he has minimal value if they don’t record a touchdown.

Rushing touchdowns may be available for the taking if Washington can make it into scoring territory. Only one team in the NFL has surrendered more rushing touchdowns than the Cowboys, who have given up 17 from their 15 contests this season. Aside from being permissive with regards to the endzone, Dallas has a below average mark for yards allowed per rush, giving up 4.2 per carry. Despite these subpar areas, the Cowboys concede only 103 yards on the ground per game, a top ten mark for the league. One of the major reason Dallas has been able to limit their opponents to modest game totals is because most teams don’t run very frequently against the Cowboys; only six teams have faced fewer rushing attempts. Largely because the offense controls possession so well and the passing game can be so effective through the air, most opponents are seemingly forced into utilizing air aerial attack against Dallas rather than leaning on the running game. In their three losses, including one to Washington earlier this year, the Cowboys allowed no fewer than 123 rushing yards on 30 attempts and gave up an average of two rushing touchdowns per game. If the Redskins are able to commit to the running game they should be able to find success against Dallas, and at least ensure that the final contest of the season isn’t a walkover for the team already guaranteed to appear in the playoffs.

Projections:
Robert Griffin III: 225 pass yds, 30 rush yds, 1 INT
Alfred Morris: 80 rush yds, 1 TD
Darrel Young: 15 rush yds, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
DeSean Jackson: 70 rec yds
Pierre Garcon: 45 rec yds
Jordan Reed: 20 rec yds

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Redskins 20 ^ Top

Jets at Dolphins - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Had two almost-wins against the Patriots come to fruition, the Jets season would certainly be viewed differently. As it stands now however they’re all but guaranteed a top five pick in the 2015 draft, and one or both of the General Manager and Head Coach are expected to be without a job as early as Monday morning. On the bright side, with three above-average performances in a row from QB Geno Smith, New York is now averaging 170 passing yards per game, still the worst in the league by nearly two dozen. The midseason move to bring WR Percy Harvin into the fold has had a moderate though ultimately insignificant effect on the passing attack. Aside from being a potential game-changer as a kick returner, Harvin has carved out a place in the pathetic New York offense while barely affecting defenses with regards to the coverage of WR Eric Decker. Prior to being injured (ribs) before halftime he was on pace to have the third best game of his Jets season, with four catches on five targets for 44 yards. As it stands, that abridged performance was still his third best in New York, where in five other games he failed to surpass 23 yards or find the endzone. His status for Week 17 is uncertain, though the Jets don’t seem to have much optimism regarding his potential availability.

Without Harvin defenses will once again be able to key on Decker and all but eliminate the possibility of a meaningful passing attack. When Miami first played the Jets, the passing attack was held to 65 yards and an interception from Smith and no receiver making more than two catches. This game was played with both Harvin and Decker at full strength, so without the threat of Harvin as a playmaker the defense should conceivably be even more stifling.

In three contests Smith has never thrown a touchdown pass against Miami, and over the course of two seasons his best game earned him a stat line of 17 completions on 27 attempts for 190 yards without a touchdown or an interception. Seeing as the Dolphins have been the fourth best pass defense this season, there’s a good chance that Smith won’t improve on that previous mark. Defensively Miami has been approximately average in terms of touchdowns allowed and interceptions forced, while also remaining tied in tenth for sacks recorded. The Dolphins have found success against the pass by forcing opponents to take shorter passes and eliminating big plays; they are one of only two teams to not have allowed a reception of at least 50 yards this season. Their mark for yards allowed per attempt is in the top quarter for the league despite having an opponent completion percentage just marginally lower than average. Between forcing incompletions and allowing only short passes, the Miami defense is usually able to create situations where the quarterback eventually makes a mistake, and that is when they strike, taking advantage by either forcing a turnover or recording a sack to keep the offense from getting into the endzone.

Running Game Thoughts: Aside from the first game of the season, RB Chris Ivory has not been given fewer carries than RB Chris Johnson during any game in which Smith was the quarterback. For the season Ivory has been superior in nearly every way, with more touches, more yards, and more touchdowns than Johnson, with a nearly equal mark for yards per carry. As a receiver out of the backfield Johnson has been marginally more active, with the only real difference being that he has one touchdown reception compared to zero for Ivory. Between these two backs and a mobile quarterback, New York has amassed the third most rushing yards in the league, and actually has the second best mark for yards per carry. The problem with the Jets offense has been in the passing game, and unfortunately the rushing attack has not been dominant enough to compensate for those other shortcomings. For the season finale C Nick Mangold (ankle) is officially listed as Doubtful, meaning that New York will likely be without the anchor of their offensive line and the only member of the team to be selected to the Pro Bowl. Any additional adversity for a 3-12 team to face is obviously going to be unwelcomed, but considering the importance of the run game and the veteran presence Mangold brings to the O-line, his absence could be particularly troubling for the Jets.

Against the run Miami has not been nearly as impressive as they’ve been defending through the air, so a heavy focus on the ground game could yield favorable results for the Jets. In their Week 13 matchup, New York ran the ball 49 times for an incredible 277 rushing yards. Unfortunately this came at the expense of the passing attack, which picked up only 65 yards from total 13 attempts. In that contest eight different players recorded a carry while only five were involved in the passing game. The run-heavy game plan worked quite well until the offense stalled in the fourth quarter, and when Miami took the lead late in the game the offense was forced to throw to try to score but ultimately was unable to get into scoring position before time expired. Though the effect was exaggerated for both teams, their first matchup unfolded in the way that both teams hoped; New York hoped to avoid throwing the ball if at all possible, and the Dolphins were willing to give up gains on the ground in hopes that the offense would eventually have to throw, and at that time they’d look to come up with a big stop. The season finale will likely resemble the previous matchup between these two teams, but any deficiencies in the Jets offensive line might seriously inhibit their ability to pull off a repeat performance on the ground.

Projections:
Geno Smith: 115 pass yds, 15 rush yds, 1 INT
Chris Ivory: 70 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Chris Johnson: 45 rush yds
Eric Decker: 40 rec yds
Jeremy Kerley: 25 rec yds, 10 rush yds
Jace Amaro: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: No combination of results could land Miami in the playoffs, though they could end up as the first team out if everything falls just the right way. A win in Week 17 would secure them their first winning season since 2008, and though it was announced that Coach Joe Philbin will be allowed to return next season for the final year of his contract, ending 2014 on a high note can only validate that decision. If Miami is going to make that happen the offensive line is going to have to play better in the season finale than they did last week. In the latest game the O-line gave up two sacks and eight other knockdowns of QB Ryan Tannehill, areas where they’ve struggled for most of the year. Despite the pressure, Tannehill actually had a career day, throwing for four scores and 396 yards with just one interception. On the receiving end, WR Mike Wallace caught all five of the targets thrown his way, including two for touchdowns; it was his first multi-score game since joining the team in 2013. He now has 10 receiving scores this season, tying him for tenth most in the league. As the team’s leading scorer and pass catcher, Wallace has carved his way into the top 20 rankings for fantasy receivers, and with a little help and another solid game he could jump into the top 15 as the season wraps up Sunday.

The chances for a quarterback or receiver to post a big game are dramatically increased when facing the Jets secondary. All season the New York pass defense has struggled to keep teams out of the endzone, allowing the most touchdowns and the third highest completion percentage of all teams in the AFC. By comparison their near-average marks for yards allowed per game, yards surrendered per attempt, and sacks recorded are all vast improvements over their bottom-feeding statistics from other areas. Last week saw a boost to the pass rush with DE Muhammad Wilkerson (turf toe) returning after missing three games. He made sure to make his presence known, recording half a sack for the first time since Week 6, and will surely be looking to add to his season totals this weekend. The tragic flaw for New York is that they’re so good against the run that they force their opponents to try to beat them through the air, but that they’re generally so poor against the pass that the offense is usually able to take advantage of passing situations even if the defense is expecting it.

Running Game Thoughts: After dealing with injuries for nearly the whole season, it appears the Dolphins backfield will have some question marks in it leading up to Week 17, but at least the starter seems to have been spared any injury concerns. Primary backup RB Daniel Thomas (knee) is listed as day-to-day, and assuming he’ll miss the season finale it will be RB Damien Williams who will once again called on to be the No.2 ball carrier behind RB Lamar Miller. The other big piece of injury news concerns LT Branden Albert (knee) who was placed on Injured Reserve this week. Practice squad RB LaMichael James was signed to the active roster, further suggesting that Thomas is unlikely to play this weekend. For the season Miami has been marginally above average in the ground game on a weekly basis, but with 4.5 yards gained per carry they’re in the top quarter of the league. When it comes to finding the endzone however the Dolphins are below average, and only in the most recent contest did they reach double-digit rushing scores for the season. As it stands, Miller is just 79 yards away from his first 1000-yard rushing season, so while the contest has minimal meaning for either team, it would be interesting to see if Miami makes a concerted effort to help him reach that personal milestone.

Presumably only a serious dedication to the rushing attack would allow Miller to achieve that individual mark, as the Jets average just 87 rushing yards against per game, nearly the entire amount needed. With the third fewest yards allowed per carry (3.5) it would take an average of at least 22 carries for Miller to gain the yardage necessary to reach his goal. As a team, the Dolphins average just over 25 carries per game, including rushes from receivers as well as scrambles from Tannehill; running backs account for roughly 21 rushing attempts per game, and even with receiving a majority of the workload Miller has never earned more than 19 carries in a single contest. One reason for optimism is that his touch total has increased in each of the last two weeks, and if that trend continues he just may reach that 1000-yard milestone. Aside from an effort like the one described above, especially in light of the statistical unlikelihood of those things all occurring, the New York run defense is again expected to put forth another dominating effort and hold their opponent to negligibly low rushing totals.

Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 275 pass yds, 10 rush yds, 3 TDs
Lamar Miller: 55 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Damien Williams: 10 rush yds
Mike Wallace: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Jarvis Landry: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Charles Clay: 70 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Dolphins 21, Jets 13 ^ Top

Bills at Patriots - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: For the first time in nearly two decades, Buffalo was far and away the best football team in the state of New York, and regardless of the outcome of Week 17 games they’re the only one who won’t finish with a losing record. Despite being the king of the Empire State, by virtue of numerous tie breakers the Bills were eliminated from playoff contention following their loss in Week 16, extending the longest active playoff drought in the NFL to 15 seasons. After switching to QB Kyle Orton early in the season it appeared the passing game was quickly improving, but he cooled and the offense was forced to absorb several injuries, which all resulted in the aerial attack leveling off near where they began the season but being somewhat less of an eyesore. In the last six contests Orton has thrown more touchdowns than interceptions on just two occasions, and in only three of the games during that span has Buffalo gained more than 200 yards through the air. The Bills story of the year revolves around rookie WR Sammy Watkins, who led the team in every major receiving category and is only a handful of fantasy points from being in the top 20 for his position. For an offense that ranks below-average through the air, his ability to make plays was leaned on heavily, and that eventually led the rest of the pass catchers having space to make plays of their own.

Although the start of his rookie season was most impressive, recording five scores and topping 115 yards thrice in the first eight games, since then Watkins has found the endzone just once and gained 80 or more yards just once as well. One of the few early season down game for Watkins was their initial matchup with the Patriots; he was held to 27 yards on two catches, largely because he drew the attention of CB Darrelle Revis. In that game WR Robert Woods had his second best game of the season, with 78 yards and a touchdown. Against the pass New England has been relatively permissive with regards to yardage and approximately average in allowing touchdowns, but with a top ten mark for both of interceptions and sacks, along with a high powered offense, the defense has been able to create stops when they’re needed in “bend but don’t break” fashion. In their first meeting the Patriots gave up nearly 300 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air, including three pass catchers who topped 70 yards each. By limiting Watkins so dramatically they were able to disrupt the Bills offense enough to prevent the game from ever truly being in jeopardy, but even with a last minute score New England was never able to open up a lead greater than two touchdowns.

Running Game Thoughts: The long awaited return of RB C.J. Spiller (collarbone) was spectacularly underwhelming, both because of the terrible performance from the running game as a whole, and because he received only eight total touches in his first game since being activated from Injured Reserve. On the ground alone he earned four touches and gained a negative four yards, and through the air his four receptions netted just 14 more. The remaining ball carriers had marginally better success on the ground, but starting RB Fred Jackson was able to do considerably better out of the backfield, with nine receptions for 93 yards; he was the leading receiver for the game. For the season Buffalo has been one of the worst rushing teams in the league, ranking in the bottom quarter for all major rushing categories.

Against the run New England has been one of the best teams this season, with top 12 rankings in all major defensive categories, including the second best mark for touchdowns surrendered. In the earlier meeting this season the Bills were held to just 68 yards on the ground and a miniscule three yards per carry. The Patriots seemed to key on Spiller, holding him without a reception and limiting five of his six carries to just over one yard per touch. By focusing on the Bills rushing attack New England elected to take their chances with Orton as a passer and force him to be the one who would beat them. Even though the veteran signal caller had one of his best games of the season, the one-dimensional offense was unable to be effective enough against the Patriots to ever threaten the outcome of the game.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs
Fred Jackson: 40 rush yds, 15 rec yds
C.J. Spiller: 25 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Sammy Watkins: 45 rec yds
Robert Woods: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Scott Chandler: 75 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: By virtue of a loss elsewhere in the league, New England is now guaranteed the No.1 overall AFC playoff seed and home field advantage throughout the postseason. A win would be next to meaningless, but it would ensure that the Patriots have the best record in the league and whatever bragging rights come with that distinction. Regardless of the outcome of this Week 17 contest, New England has already become the first team in NFL history to earn a first round bye in the playoffs for five consecutive seasons. Beyond how much of a full effort will or won’t be put forth, the only real remaining question for New England is the injury status of WR Julian Edelman (concussion, thigh); he missed last game but has since been cleared medically. By targets and completions, Edelman is the most active Patriots receiver, but the leader for both yardage and scores is TE Rob Gronkowski. Along with the top tight end in the league, the development of WR Brandon LaFell may minimize the importance of Edelman in this one game. While Edelman is utilized more as a possession receiver, LaFell is more of a deep threat pass catcher, and he combined with Gronkowski stretching the field has been used to create space for Edelman underneath the coverage. Their combination of pass catchers and the veteran leadership of QB Tom Brady have led the Patriots to a passing offense in the top quarter of the league with a top five mark for touchdown passes. With nothing to play for in this season finale and the New England staff always so tight-lipped about their plans for each weekend, any fantasy predictions for this game are speculative at best and the usage of Brady and company are all but unpredictable.

Though the Bills defense has been one of the best in the league against the pass this season, even in their first matchup with New England they did next to nothing to slow down the aerial attack. Brady threw for 361 yards and four touchdowns while completing nearly 73% of his passes and suffering just two sacks on the day. For the rest of the season no one in the NFL has been better at getting to the quarterback than Buffalo, leading the league with 50 sacks recorded. They also have allowed the fewest number of passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, just 16 scores through 15 games. The ability to disrupt the line of scrimmage has helped the secondary to keep receivers out of the endzone, but the back seven has done quite well on their own in coverage, further allowing the pass rushers to get after the signal caller. With DT Marcell Dareus (knee) and CB Stephon Gilmore (concussion) both listed as Questionable for the season finale, the Bills abilities in both areas of the defense may be compromised. Though they’ve allowed only one of their last five opponents to find the endzone through the air, with Brady and company coming to town they could be in for another such scoring performance.

Running Game Thoughts: Like the passing attack, the ground game has one of its top players banged up and nursing an injury. In Week 16 RB LeGarrette Blount (shoulder) was unavailable, and though he’s listed as Questionable for this week there seems to be little reason to risk injuring him further in a contest of no real consequence. In the event he is held out, RB Jonas Gray will fill in for him as the primary ball carrier, with RB Shane Vereen continuing to play the role of backfield pass catcher and change-of-pace back. Though he earned the majority of his statistics during Week 11, on the season Gray is the leading rusher for New England, has converted the most rushing first downs, and has scored the most touchdowns on the ground for the team. Though the Patriots are near or below average in most rushing categories, the offense runs through Brady and the passing game. This leaves the rushing attack as a reliable complement to the more potent area of the offense, but one which can be utilized at the discretion of the veteran signal caller.

In their first meeting New England was held to just 50 yards rushing and gained less than two yards per carry. The game was won through the air, with Brady completing as many passes as the team attempted runs, but even though rushing attempts were all but futile the threat of the run was necessary to bring balance to the offense. On the season the Bills were barely better than average against the run, ranking either 13th or 14th in the major categories of run defense. However, in each of the last three contests opponents have gained no fewer than 133 yards on the ground and Buffalo has given up four rushing scores during that trio of games. Though New England may elect to rest some of their starters and thus have a less potent offense than usual, with Gray in the backfield they have a powerful ball carrier capable of taking advantage of whatever running lanes the offensive line is able to create.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 250 pass yds, 3 TDs
Jonas Gray: 65 rush yds, 1 TD
Shane Vereen: 20 rush yds, 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon LaFell: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Danny Amendola: 50 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 85 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Patriots 31, Bills 17 ^ Top

Eagles at Giants - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Regardless of the outcome of this game, Philadelphia will be the first team out of the playoffs, despite being guaranteed to have at least two more wins than the NFC South champion who will earn their playoff berth this weekend. With a minus-nine in turnover margin and committing the most interceptions in the league, it’s not hard to see how the Eagles fell from 7-2 to a team that will miss the playoffs. Prior to being injured, QB Nick Foles (collarbone) had 13 turnovers in seven games; QB Mark Sanchez currently has 14 from eight contests. Philadelphia has decided to stick with Sanchez for the season finale. Last week the signal caller set franchise record with 37 completions in a single game, with 15 of them going to TE Zac Ertz, also setting a franchise record. Aside from not finding the endzone, Week 16 was the best game of the young tight end’s career, after not hitting 90 at any point prior, and since the second week of the season he’s not even topped 55 yards. Beyond Ertz the rest of the pass catchers recorded unremarkable afternoons, with neither of WRs Jeremy Maclin or Jordan Matthews surpassing 65 yards or scoring a touchdown, the first time that has happened since a Week 6 matchup with the Giants.

If New York homes to contain both Maclin and Matthews again they’ll want to be better than their 17th ranking against the pass would suggest. To go along with their subpar yardage marks, the Giants are marginally better than average when it comes to keeping teams out of the endzone, surrendering 23 scores through the air in 15 contests. When it comes to bringing pressure though, that is the area where New York excels; they’re the second best team in the NFC at recording sacks and the fourth for the league. This ability to disrupt the pocket has helped lead to a top ten ranking for interceptions forced. Between pressures, which can lead to sacks, or hurries which can lead to interceptions, the Giants defense is perhaps perfectly suited to exploit those things with which Philadelphia struggles. Although New York was able to force two interceptions and record one sack the first time these teams met this season, they still yielded two touchdowns and nearly 250 passing yards while being shut out on the road. If they’re looking to return the favor when the Eagles travel to MetLife stadium, the pass rushers and cornerbacks will have to be even more opportunistic than they were earlier this year.

Running Game Thoughts: With a loss last week it became the first time all season that the Eagles failed to win a game in which RB LeSean McCoy scored a touchdown; Philadelphia is also undefeated when McCoy rushes for at least 100 yards. Though the game plan clearly dictated a pass-heavy offense, through the course of the year the Eagles have demonstrated that they’re the best version of themselves when McCoy too is at his best. Part of the reason may be that additional runs and success from the ground game mean that the ball is in the quarterback’s hands less often, thus reducing their potential for causing a turnover. Both Foles and Sanchez have been terrible in ball protection this season, so the more that McCoy or RB Darren Sproles can be involved the more beneficial that should be to the Eagles. For the year Philadelphia ranks as a top ten rushing team but has a yards per carry average that is below the midpoint for the league. The extra yards come from increased volume, as the Eagles are in the top quarter of the league for rushing attempts. Presumably what is best for the team on the field is also best for McCoy fantasy owners, so presuming that Philadelphia comes into Week 17 looking for a victory, their running backs may be in line for one last impressive fantasy performance.

Attempting to get in their way, both literally and figuratively, is a New York run defense which ranks as one of the three worst in the league. The Giants surrender an average of 133 rushing yards per contest at a league-worst rate of 4.9 yards per carry. Not surprisingly they’re also one of the worst when it comes to preventing teams from getting into the endzone, ranking as the sixth most permissive team for rushing scores. In their first meeting the Giants gave up 203 rushing yards and a touchdown, with 149 of those yards being gained by McCoy. During their three game win streak New York has allowed just one touchdown and have yielded an average of 104 rushing yards per contest; if they hope to win the final game of the season they’re going to need to continue that recent improvement against the run.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
LeSean McCoy: 90 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Darren Sproles: 20 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Jeremy Maclin: 55 rec yds
Jordan Matthews: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Zach Ertz: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Amid the seven game losing streak earlier this year the Giants season became a lost cause, but looking past the injuries and the inconsistencies New York could be seen putting together pieces that could be the basis for a bright future. The brightest of those pieces is rookie WR Odell Beckham Jr., whose injury-shortened campaign is still on the verge of setting records or improving on others that he’s already established. He has 79 receptions this season, a record for the first 11 games of a career. Additionally, he has a current streak of eight consecutive games with 90 or more receiving yards, and if he reaches that threshold again on Sunday he’ll tie an NFL record which has stood since 1995 and is held by a Hall of Fame pass catcher. With WR Victor Cruz missing the majority of this season and Beckham quickly establishing himself as an elite receiver, New York is anxiously awaiting the 2015 season when they will hopefully both be on the field at the same time. Even with respect to the draft this offseason, the outcome of this game has almost zero bearing on the Giants in any way, but a win over a division rival is never a bad way to usher in the offseason. A victory would bring New York to .500 in the NFC East, and perhaps more importantly it would mean that this tumultuous season would end with a four game winning streak. A victory Sunday would make it the 100th in the career of QB Eli Manning. He’s coming off his best game of the season, with 391 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, and will be looking to build on that success this weekend.

Tasked with finding a way to contain the dark horse Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate will be a Philadelphia defense ranked in the bottom quarter against the pass. On the season only three teams have surrendered more touchdowns through the air than have the Eagles, and on the basis of both yards per attempt and interceptions forced they’re in the bottom ten for the league. Only in the area of rushing the passer are they significantly above average, just one sack shy of being tied for the league lead. During the current three game losing streak Philadelphia has allowed at least one receiver to surpass 95 yards in each contest, and only against one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the league were they able to force an interception of hold the offense below 260 passing yards. Five receiving touchdowns have been conceded in the last three games, but seven sacks have also been recorded during that time. With an impressive pass rush and little else of note on the defensive side of the ball, the Eagles may find themselves spread too thin if Manning is able to put together a third impressive performance in as many weeks.

Running Game Thoughts: With no upside to offset the risk of re-aggravating the injury, it’s not reasonable to expect much if anything from RB Rashad Jennings (ankle) after missing last week and being listed as Questionable going into this weekend. Though it took a number of weeks for him to do so, rookie RB Andre Williams has grown during his first NFL season and is running better with more experience under his belt. As of last week Williams finally became the Giants leading rusher, but barring another stellar day from his it’s unlikely that he’ll reach 800 yards for the year despite recording multiple carries in each game this season. Partially due to the inexperience of the backfield which was left behind in the wake of the injury to Jennings, New York has a rushing attack that ranks in the bottom third, and a per carry average that is the fourth worst in the league. Even with marks clearly below the league average, the Giants are tied for a top 12 spot for touchdowns scores on the ground. Averaging just 102 rushing yards per game New York may not find themselves in the redzone often, but when they do there’s a reasonable chance that one of the ball carriers will be able to get across the goal line.

Defending against the run has not been one of the strong points for Philadelphia this season. Conceding 113 rushing yards per game is slightly more than the league average, but by giving up just 3.8 yards per carry the Eagles are one of the six best teams in that area. This contrast is created by a relatively stout defense who faces an incredible amount of rushing attempts; Philadelphia has defended the fourth most carries this season. The running style of Williams may be able to take advantage of the defensive philosophy which seeks to limit big plays on the ground, instead relying on a higher volume of running plays even if they aren’t overly effective. Since neither team is heading for the playoffs nor do either stand to gain very much in the 2015 draft if they were to lose, trends and statistics may get thrown out the window. As two teams with nothing to lose try to make one last statement in favor of their team being the superior NFC East opponent, these longstanding rivals would like nothing better than to end their disappointing season with a hard-fought win over a divisional foe.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 260 pass yds, 2 TDs
Andre Williams: 85 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Orleans Darkwa: 20 rush yds
Odell Beckham Jr.: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Rueben Randle: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Donnell: 35 rec yds

Prediction: Giants 24, Eagles 20 ^ Top

Chargers @ Chiefs - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: It’s been a long, up-and-down season for the San Diego Chargers, but their playoff hopes now hinge on their ability to win one game, on the road, against a division rival in the Kansas City Chiefs. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers does seem up to the task after a big game in Week 16 when he threw for 356 yards and four touchdowns in an important win over the 49ers. Although he also tossed three interceptions on the day, it was Rivers’ late-game heroics that ultimately led to the Chargers still controlling their own fate here in Week 17. Now in this big matchup, Rivers should still be looked at as a viable QB1 as he faces a defense that he has done well against throughout his career. He averages 246 yards per game and has thrown 29 touchdowns to 18 interceptions in his 18 career games against the Chiefs. Perhaps most importantly for Chargers fans, his career record in those 18 games is 13-5. When these two teams squared off earlier this season, Rivers threw for a measly 205 yards and two touchdowns with an interception, which is still decent enough to make him a low-end QB1, but fantasy owners will be hoping that he can kick it into another gear in the final week of the season.

Things won’t be easy from a matchup standpoint, though, as the Chiefs have been good against the pass all season. Although they have allowed at least one passing touchdown in every game, they have only allowed one QB (Peyton Manning) to throw for more than two touchdowns against them in a single game so far this season. They’ve had a nice string of games against some of the league’s least-efficient passers, but the Chiefs have done a great job at slowing down the pass as of late. Over their past six games, the Chiefs have conceded an average of just 202 passing yards per game and a total of eight passing touchdowns. With the season on the line, it’s hard to trust many quarterbacks over Rivers in your starting lineup, but don’t expect a monster game here.

Running Game Thoughts: A career of nagging injuries has always made Ryan Mathews tough to own in fantasy football. The former first round NFL draft pick has only played in one full season throughout his career and here we are again in 2015, coming down the stretch in an important game and the team doesn’t know if they’ll have their top tailback on Sunday. Mathews has been dealing with an ankle injury that kept him out in Weeks 15 and 16 and he is listed as questionable for Week 17’s tilt against the Chiefs. If he is able to go, Mathews is a good bet to get some decent fantasy production as he has done well against the Chiefs throughout his career. The last time he faced Kansas City was in Week 17 of 2014 when he rushed for 144 yards on the day. If Mathews is unable to go, the Chargers will likely again turn to the smaller, less powerful Branden Oliver as their lead back, with Donald Brown serving as the complementary back. Oliver exploded into fantasy relevance earlier this season when Mathews, Brown and Danny Woodhead were all injured, but has failed to continue to produce at a decent level for his fantasy owners down the stretch. With Mathews out over the past two weeks, Oliver has contributed a total of 79 yards on 25 carries, but his biggest asset might be his ability to make plays in the passing game. His 72 yards on seven catches make him a big threat coming out of the backfield and a player who could be trusted as an RB2 in PPR leagues this week should Mathews remain sidelined.

This is a decent matchup for whoever ends up running the ball, however, as the Chiefs have not been good at slowing down the run the season. Although they’ve only conceded four total touchdowns to opposing running backs, they have given up nearly 5.0 yards per carry to the position on the year. Running backs have surpassed over 100 rushing yards against them in nine games this season, so look for Oliver or Mathews to approach that total this week, at least with their rushing and receiving yardage combined.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 225 pass yds, 2 TD
Branden Oliver: 50 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Donald Brown: 20 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Malcom Floyd: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Eddie Royal: 50 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Editor’s Note: Chase Daniel will start at QB for the Chiefs. Alex Smith was declared out Friday afternoon.

Passing Game Thoughts: It continues to be a comical note on NFL talk shows, but the facts are that Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith has still not thrown a touchdown to a wide receiver this season. This mind-boggling display of downfield passing ineptitude has certainly hurt the team as they have failed to keep up with some of the higher-scoring offenses in the league. Still, the Chiefs are technically in the playoff hunt. They’d need the assistance of the Ravens and Texans both losing, but it all starts with the Chiefs’ ability to win this game. Thankfully, Alex Smith has actually turned things up in recent weeks. Smith has averaged over 300 yards per game through the air during the recent stretch and while he has only thrown three touchdowns over those games, he has also only thrown one interception. It still remains extremely tough to trust the Kansas City QB after a season of fantasy disappointments where he hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game since all the way back in Week 4, but there is hope for those who have to roll with Smith here in Week 17. In his four career starts against the Chargers, Smith has thrown for an average of 223.5 yards per game with six touchdowns and three interceptions. Unfortunately for Chiefs fans, those performances have only net the team a 1-3 record against the Chargers.

The Chargers haven’t been great against the pass this season, but they’ve been decent as of late; holding Peyton Manning and Colin Kaepernick to a total of just 347 yards and two touchdowns through the air over their past two games. Kaepernick did also add a huge day on the ground but while Alex Smith is more mobile than many QB’s, fantasy owners shouldn’t be considering his rushing numbers when making a decision on whether to start him or not. There isn’t much to like about this Kansas City passing game and with Jamaal Charles listed as questionable, it may be even less exciting.

Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles has been one of the most prolific fantasy running backs of the past five years. The elite consistency is something that we just don’t see very often out of the running back position, particularly on a team that has been as hot and cold as the Chiefs have been. But Charles is the type of dynamic playmaker who simply dominates the fantasy scoreboard on a week-by-week, season-by-season basis...that is, until we really needed him here in 2015. Charles’ disgusting lines over the past two weeks will likely be blamed for quite a few fantasy football championship losses as the Chiefs tailback amassed just 81 rushing yards and 49 receiving yards on six catches with zero total touchdowns over the final two weeks of the season. These two games against the Raiders and Steelers, both beatable defenses, were his least productive of the season in games that he did not leave due to injury. That really hurts from a fantasy standpoint as most leagues play their championships in Weeks 15 and 16, but if you’re someone who plays in Week 17 and you made it through Charles’ stinkers over the past two weeks, there may be light at the end of the tunnel in this matchup against the Chargers.

Charles is still listed as questionable with an ankle/hamstring injury on the team’s official report, but there is nothing that really suggests that he will be unavailable for this game. He was productive in his previous matchup against the Chargers when he compiled 107 total yards and a touchdown in San Diego. The Chargers have looked bad against the run lately, as well, having conceded 172 rushing yards and a touchdown to Frank Gore and the 49ers backfield just a week ago. If the Chiefs hope to compete in this game, they’re likely going to need a big game from Charles. Look for them to give him a big chunk of carries and while he has been disappointing as of late, Charles needs to be in your lineup here in Week 17.

Projections:
Chase Daniel: 220 pass yds, 1 TD, 25 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 40 rec yds
Dwayne Bowe: 50 rec yds
Albert Wilson: 40 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Chargers 20, Chiefs 17 ^ Top

Raiders @ Broncos - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: There has been a lot of hype about other rookie quarterbacks this season, but the only one who will start all 16 games for his team this season will be Oakland’s Derek Carr. Carr has been quietly decent, especially given the circumstances surrounding the team in Oakland, as he has thrown for over 3,100 yards with 20 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions. Those numbers certainly aren’t excellent from a fantasy standpoint, but they’re decent enough to give fans hope for the future; something which the franchise has not had at the quarterback position in many seasons. Carr has been capping his rookie campaign off with some nice production, as well. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 13 and he’s been up against some good defenses in San Francisco, Kansas City and Buffalo. Wide receiver James Jones has now caught touchdowns in back-to-back games, although his most recent effort against the Bills in Week 16 saw him catch just one ball for a three yard score. The team’s most consistent receiver has been Andre Holmes, who has 143 yards receiving over the past two weeks, but he has not scored since all the way back in Week 8.

Things could be worse from a matchup standpoint, though, as the Raiders head to Denver in Week 17. The Broncos have been struggling as a team as of late and have been poor against the pass all season. They’ve already conceded nearly 3,700 yards passing along with 28 touchdowns and while they’ve also intercepted 17 passes, they rank 26th in fantasy points conceded to opposing quarterbacks. Carr himself threw for 192 yards and two touchdowns when these teams met back in Week 10, but he contributed to the inflated interception numbers by throwing a pair of picks. The Broncos shut down Holmes and Jones in that contest, but it was tight end Mychal Rivera who did some damage, catching six passes for 64 yards and a score. Rivera has been up and down all season, but the Broncos have been awful against opposing tight ends which could make Rivera worth a low-end TE1 spot this week.

Running Game Thoughts: There is plenty to like about what we’ve seen from the new Oakland Raiders running back Latavius Murray. Over the past three weeks, he has gone from being practically unknown in the fantasy community to a player who can be relied on as a decent contributor even on one of the worst offenses in the league. Murray is averaging nearly 5.4 yards per carry on the ground and while those numbers are inflated from a few long rushes, he has been consistently very good on the ground. His 58 carries over the past three weeks are the kind of workload that is hard to come by this late in the season, so there is reason to be excited about his potential in this matchup.

Unfortunately the matchup in this game is one of the worst that can be imagined from a fantasy standpoint. The Broncos have conceded the second-fewest rushing yards in the league this season and their six rushing touchdowns allowed are also among the fewest. This should come as no surprise as the high-powered Denver offense typically puts quite a few points on the board, which forces opposing teams to abandon their running games early. That may not be the case here in Week 17, however, as Denver’s passing game appears to be going through a rough patch. If the Raiders defense can step up and keep them in this game, look for Murray to touch the ball between 15-20 times which should be enough to make him at least a Flex play in this contest.

Projections:
Derek Carr: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Latavius Murray: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
James Jones: 40 rec yds
Andre Holmes: 40 rec yds
Mychal Rivera: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: If you didn’t know the player behind it, a 224 yard per game average with five touchdowns over a four game stretch wouldn’t seem so bad. But when you consider that the player is the 2014 NFL MVP, Peyton Manning and that he has also thrown six interceptions over that stretch, there is suddenly reason to be very, very concerned. Manning threw four interceptions in the Broncos’ Week 16 loss to the Bengals, which now has the team’s first round bye status in question. Wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have remained incredibly productive, but everyone else in this passing game has suddenly become a very shaky start. Over his past two games since returning from injury, tight end Julius Thomas has made just three catches and has not scored a touchdown. Wes Welker remains a fourth option at best which has him relegated to essentially being a handcuff for other receivers in the offense.

Things should get better here in Week 17, however, as the Broncos host the Raiders and their 25th-ranked fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks. The Raiders have given up 28 touchdown passes this season while intercepting just nine passes. Their worst performance came back in Week 10 when they conceded 353 yards and five touchdowns to the very quarterback they’ll be up against in Week 17. While he has been disappointing lately, there is no way that Manning should be on fantasy benches this week. The Broncos will lock up a first round bye with a win in this game, so expect the team to at least have their starters in long enough to do some decent fantasy damage.

Running Game Thoughts: From third stringer to fantasy superstar, Broncos running back C.J. Anderson surpasses 1,000 total yards on the season this past week against the Bengals. While the Denver passing game has struggled, Anderson and the running game have been very good over the past few weeks. Over his past five games, Anderson has averaged 134.4 total yards per contest while scoring six touchdowns. He has become a must-start in all formats due to his dual threat ability along with this goal line proficiency.

He has one of the best possible matchups here in Week 17, as well, as he will be running against an Oakland Raiders defense that ranks 30th in fantasy points given up to opposing running backs so far this season. The Raiders have given up over 2,300 total yards and 19 touchdowns to the position on the year and it doesn’t seem likely that they’re suddenly going to be able to slow down a red hot player like Anderson. He dominated the Raiders when these teams played back in Week 10 as he rushed for 90 yards on 13 carries while adding an additional four catches for 73 yards and a touchdown in the passing game. This is essentially Oakland’s “Super Bowl,” but Anderson and the Broncos seem poised to ruin that for them, as well.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 275 pass yds, 3 TD
C.J. Anderson: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Emmanuel Sanders: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Demaryius Thomas: 90 rec yds, 2 TD
Julius Thomas: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Broncos 31, Raiders 14 ^ Top

Rams @ Seahawks - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: The St. Louis passing game remains one of the most-avoided units by fantasy owners this season, but Shaun Hill has actually been decent lately. Over his past four games, Hill has thrown for an average of 229 yards per game with six touchdowns and only two interceptions. Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but in a season with as many injuries as the Rams have dealt with, it’s not so bad. Wide receiver Kenny Britt also had one of his best games since leaving Tennessee this past week when he caught nine balls for 103 yards against the Giants. Unfortunately, there hasn’t been anywhere near enough consistency from any of these receivers to make them a viable fantasy option, especially in this matchup.

The Seattle Seahawks started the season off slow, but have really come on down the stretch and are now once again, by far and away, the best pass defense in the NFL. They’re averaging nearly 30 yards fewer per game against them than any other defense and they’re tied for the league’s fewest total touchdowns to allowed to quarterbacks with 17. While their 11 total interceptions forced are surprisingly low, they’ve been good enough as a whole that it would be justifiable to bench just about any quarterback against them, let alone someone like Shaun Hill. Look elsewhere this week.

Running Game Thoughts: He has been up and down mostly due to the scoreboard in certain games, but St. Louis running back Tre Mason is making his case down the stretch to be the team’s feature back in 2015. Mason has rushed for nearly 750 yards on the season despite having taken just five total carries through the team’s first five games of 2014. With a grasp of the starting job, Mason has made for a solid RB2 most weeks despite being on a team that doesn’t put him into scoring position too often. He was able to defy traditional logic by producing good numbers against the Giants this past week despite being on the field for fewer than 50 percent of the team’s snaps due to the Rams falling behind early and being forced to pass down the stretch. Mason still carried the ball 13 times for 76 yards and a touchdown, which made him a decent fantasy starter in what could have been a disastrous game.

Things won’t get any easier in Week 17, though, as the Rams head to Seattle to face the defending Super Bowl champion and current NFC top playoff seed Seattle Seahawks. Seattle’s secondary has been the talk of the league for a couple of seasons now, but their run defense has also been exceptional. The Seahawks have given up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and they’ve been extraordinary as of late. Over their past five games, the Seahawks have given up an average of just 52 yards per game on the ground and they’ve only given up one total rushing touchdown over that stretch. Mason did rush for 85 yards and a touchdown when these teams met back in Week 7, but this is a different Seattle defense than what we saw at that time and this game will be played in Seattle with the 12th-man firmly behind the team. Mason still makes for a decent Flex play this week or a low-end RB2, but the high-end potential isn’t here in this matchup.

Projections:
Shaun Hill: 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Tre Mason: 55 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Kenny Britt: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Stedman Bailey: 40 rec yds
Jared Cook: 35 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: It has been an extraordinary fantasy season for Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson, but he may be peaking at the right time as the team heads toward the playoffs. In what will likely end up being the deciding game in the NFC West, Wilson threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals. He also added 88 rushing yards and a touchdown, adding to what has already been a monstrous season on the ground. As we head into Week 17, Wilson is now the No. 3 overall fantasy football quarterback in standard scoring formats with 26 total touchdowns and just six turnovers. He also has an outside shot at 1,000 rushing yards on the season if he can have a huge game here against the Rams. Wilson has done all of this without a true WR1 as Percy Harvin was traded away earlier this season. His top target, Doug Baldwin, has been good as of late, however. Over his past three contests, Baldwin has made 15 receptions for 263 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers certainly aren’t exceptional, but they’re good enough to have made him a decent Flex option at the very least.

Wilson himself remains the only real player that fantasy owners should be excited about in this matchup, though. The Rams had been very good against opposing quarterbacks during Weeks 13 through 15, having not allowed a single passing touchdown over that stretch, but then fell apart this past week against the Giants when they allowed Eli Manning to throw for nearly 400 yards and three touchdowns. Wilson isn’t likely to crack 300 yards or throw for three scores here, but even if he remains around the 200 yard passing mark, he should put up good enough rushing numbers to make him a quality starter here again in Week 17.

Running Game Thoughts: Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch is certainly not at 100-percent as we head down the stretch, but his fantasy performances certainly wouldn’t show that. The bruising tailback has a nagging back injury that has forced him to miss numerous practices over the past couple of weeks. He has battled through it, though, and been his usual highly productive, consistent self as of late. Over his past eight games, Lynch has averaged 95.5 rushing yards per game while adding 10 total touchdowns. This past week, Lynch showed off his ridiculous ability by bullying the Cardinals defense to the tune of 113 yards and two touchdowns on just 10 carries. With the game well in control, the Seahawks then turned to the duo of Christine Michael and Robert Turbin to put the game away.

That may be the only concern about Lynch here heading into the Week 17 matchup against the Rams. The Seahawks will lock up the NFC West and a first round bye with a victory and with the Rams unlikely to put up a high number of points, the Seahawks could end up putting this game away early. If that happens, the Seahawks will likely let Lynch sit down and rest earlier than usual, in an effort to keep the star runner healthy for the playoffs. The chances of that happening aren’t good enough to play Michael or Turbin, but both players are likely to touch the ball a few times this week even if Lynch stays in the game through its entirety.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 50 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Robert Turbin: 25 rush yds, 1 TD
Christine Michael: 20 rush yds
Doug Baldwin: 70 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Rams 13 ^ Top

Cardinals @ 49ers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: An unfortunate string of injuries has put the Cardinals in a tough place here in Week 17. Original starter Carson Palmer tore his ACL, which then led the team to turn to Drew Stanton, who proceeded to suffer a knee injury of his own. Now reports indicate that Stanton could miss the remainder of the season as the quarterback underwent arthroscopic surgery on the knee to combat an infection and may be out for the season. The team now has no choice but to turn to Ryan Lindley, a quarterback who has started for the team before, but has been almost remarkably ineffective. Lindley has the sad claim to fame of being the quarterback who has attempted the most passes without throwing a touchdown in the history of the NFL. After his uninspiring performance against the Seahawks this past week, Lindley has now thrown eight interceptions with zero touchdowns in his career.

With the 49ers giving up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, there is absolutely no reason that anyone should even be considering Lindley from a fantasy standpoint this week. The 49ers did allow Philip Rivers to torch them to the tune of 356 yards and four touchdowns this past week, but Lindley is not Rivers. Even the Cardinals receivers should be avoided in this game as no member of the unit has stood out as of late and none of them have developed enough chemistry with Lindley to really give fantasy owners anything to be excited about.

Running Game Thoughts: Perhaps worse than the string of injuries that they’ve sustained at the quarterback position is fact that the Cardinals are without their standout running back, Andre Ellington, as they head toward the playoffs. Ellington was making a name for himself as a top-10 fantasy running back prior to his injury and despite the fact that the offensive line has played better this season, at least in run blocking, there hasn’t been much consistency at the running back position since Ellington went out. The first back who got a chance was Marion Grice, then the team turned to Kerwynn Williams who actually performed well, but then Williams was benched this past week due to his lack of pass protection skills. Stepfan Taylor appears to now be the back to own, but he was wildly ineffective in his 11 attempts this past week, which he took for just 19 yards.

With the 49ers giving up an average of just barely over 4.0 yards per carry, there isn’t a lot to be excited about here from the Cardinals running game. Taylor could sneak into the end zone, but the chances aren’t good enough to warrant placing him into your lineup as anything other than a Flex play. Do your best to avoid the Cardinals in this game as their offense is just too banged up to produce high-end fantasy numbers.

Projections:
Ryan Lindley: 180 pass yds, 1 INT
Stepfan Taylor: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Larry Fitzgerald: 50 rec yds
Michael Floyd: 45 rec yds
John Brown: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Where has THAT Colin Kaepernick been all season? Despite throwing for just 114 yards on the day, the San Francisco quarterback had his second-biggest fantasy day of the season this past week against the Chargers as he added a ridiculous 151 rushing yards. He also threw for one and rushed for one touchdown. The dual-threat ability has made Kaepernick an intriguing fantasy option, but we had not seen it this season. In fact, Kaepernick had been held to under 30 yards rushing in nine games this season and he hadn’t rushed for a single touchdown prior to the long one against the Chargers this past week. That disappointing line had kept him outside of the top 20 at his position throughout most of the season and he had been all but forgotten about from a fantasy standpoint. Unfortunately, Kaepernick’s big fantasy day didn’t do much for his receivers who have been struggling throughout most of the year. Vernon Davis has now been held to 30 or fewer receiving yards in every game since Week 2 and he hasn’t caught a single touchdown pass since Week 1. His baffling drop off could not have been predicted, but he is now unworthy of being rostered in any league. Michael Crabtree has also seen a substantial fantasy drop off this season as he has scored just once since Week 6 and has not surpassed 85 yards in any game this season. The only receiver worth discussing is Anquan Boldin who continues to at least produce decent numbers most weeks. If he can get just 19 yards this week, he’ll surpass 1,000 on the season, which is more than most expected heading into the year.

None of the players in this passing game are extremely intriguing as they head into this game against the Cardinals defense which hasn’t allowed more than two passing touchdowns in any game other than their Week 5 matchup against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Kaepernick threw for 245 yards and a touchdown when these teams met back in Week 3, but Boldin was held to six catches for 36 yards in that game and he will likely be shadowed by Patrick Peterson, which could limit his upside.

Running Game Thoughts: Just when we had all but written him off as a fantasy relevant player, Frank Gore shows up with a huge game against the Chargers in Week 16. The veteran tailback took 26 carries, his most in any game this season, for 158 yards and a touchdown. Gore had averaged under 50 rushing yards per game over his previous nine contests prior to the breakout performance against San Diego, which leads us to believe that this game was more of an aberration than it is an indication of future performances. Still, given his age and relative ineffectiveness as of late, there is a very real chance that this is the last time we will ever see Frank Gore on an NFL field, at least in a 49ers uniform. Because of that, and the 49ers being eliminated from playoff contention, we could see Gore get a hefty load here in this game against the Cardinals.

Only one team (St. Louis) has allowed Gore to rush for more touchdowns against them than the Cardinals have throughout his career, but recent history hasn’t been quite as kind to the 49ers running back. Over his past two games against the Cardinals, Gore has totaled a pathetic 24 rushing yards on 19 attempts with no touchdowns. While this game is at home, there is still little reason to think that Gore will be in line for another huge game like he had in Week 16. He has a chance to give his fantasy owners a decent day as an RB2, but should be avoided in daily leagues.

Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 155 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 40 rush yds
Frank Gore: 60 rush yds, 1 TD
Anquan Boldin: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Crabtree: 45 rec yds

Prediction: 49ers 17, Cardinals 10 ^ Top

Bears at Vikings - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Jimmy Clausen made his first start since 2010 and ran the Bears’ offense far better than Jay Cutler did in recent weeks. Clausen’s day would have been far better if it weren’t for his receivers, who dropped seven balls. Clausen threw for 181 yards and two touchdowns with one interception coming on a Hail Mary pass attempt.

Head coach Marc Trestman, who is likely to be fired after the season, was probably secretly hoping for another strong performance from Clausen. It would show that two journeyman quarterbacks, Clausen and Josh McCown, were able to look very good in his offense, and that Cutler should be blamed for the Bears’ woes.

Clausen suffered a concussion last week, though, and will be forced to miss the game. Cutler will be back under center this week to face the Vikings. The last time he faced Minnesota, he threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns. This could be his last game as a Bear, but a good showing could convince whoever is left in charge of the Bears to give him another chance.

The Vikings Xavier Rhodes is becoming a shut down corner in the NFC North with Jordy Nelson and Calvin Johnson as his most recent victims. He should make life difficult for Alshon Jeffrey, who was responsible for several of the bad drops last week. The Vikings have had a strong pass defense overall this season allowing only 226.7 passing yards per game but have yielded 26 touchdown passes. Cutler does have an opportunity to put up some points this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte was finally able to see a heavy workload on the ground, albeit against the league’s top ranked run defense last week. Forte was able to benefit from a more efficient passing attack and gained 55 yards on 19 carries. As usual he was also a big contributor in the passing game with six receptions for 40 yards and a score. Forte is perhaps slowing down a bit as he approaches the age where running backs hit the figurative wall. He’s only averaging 4.0 yards per carry, his lowest average since his second year in the league, but he’s still a capable chain mover and his 94 receptions and 745 receiving yards are both a career highs. While Trestman has been reluctant to establish a consistent rushing attack, Forte has been the perfect back for his system due to his proficiency in the passing game. If Trestman is let go following this season, Forte’s fantasy value could take a major hit next season.

The Vikings are the league’s 25th ranked run defense allowing 123.3 rushing yards per game and 10 rushing touchdowns. The Bears should be able to move the ball on the ground if they look to feed Forte again in what should be a close game.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 265 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 15 rush yds
Matt Forte: 75 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Ka’Deem Carey: 15 rush yds
Marquess Wilson: 75 rec yds
Alshon Jeffery: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus Bennett: 80 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Teddy Bridgewater is starting to look very comfortable in Norv Turner’s offense and he has started putting up the passing statistics needed to succeed in the current NFL. Last week Bridgewater looked sharp spreading the ball around to many targets, completing 19 of 26 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns. He’s now thrown for multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games.

Charles Johnson has stepped up as his top target during that time period, helping Bridgewater to turn the corner, but last week he tweaked his hamstring in the second quarter and had a quiet game. With second-year wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson an afterthought after failing to master the route running required by Turner’s offense, Johnson has capitalized on the opportunity. He looks like he could be the focal point of the passing game for next season now.

The Bears’ defense has not stopped anyone all season long and is allowing 269.3 yards per game with 33 touchdowns through the air. Bridgewater has a chance to finish up the season on a high note before he heads into his first offseason as the team’s clear-cut starter.

Running Game Thoughts: Matt Asiata scored twice last week and has scored 10 times this season. Asiata is nothing more than a decent stopgap option, but has taken advantage of his opportunity this season and has the trust of the coaching staff due to his no-nonsense running style and his outstanding pass protection skills. Asiata is averaging only 3.3 yards per carry on the ground, but has managed to hold off Ben Tate who the Vikings claimed off of waivers after the Browns released him. The Vikings must have had their reasons for picking up Tate and his contract but those reasons aren’t very apparent seeing as they have barely used him since he’s been on the team, despite the Vikings lack of strong options.

The Bears have played the run reasonably well, allowing 112.1 yards per game and only 12 rushing touchdowns on the season. Asiata may struggle in potentially his last game as a starting running back.

Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 255 pass yds, 2 TDs, 25 rush yds
Matt Asiata: 35 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Ben Tate: 15 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Charles Johnson: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Greg Jennings: 45 rec yds
Chase Ford: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Vikings 27, Bears 20 ^ Top

Bengals at Steelers - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton will look to win his second consecutive “big” game this week as the Bengals look to win the AFC North in primetime. Dalton has been fairly accused of not showing up during playoff and primetime games, but he and his teammates beat the Broncos last Monday Night with a potential playoff spot on the line. After starting the game with a pick six that gave Denver the early lead, Dalton settled in. The Bengals featured a short passing attack with a lot of screen passes and used the read-option offense effectively as well.

AJ Green was the intended target on the pick six, and Dalton set him up to take a big hit as he reached up for the high throw forcing Green to miss time on the field. Green was in and out of the lineup afterwards but did not catch a pass on the night and was clearly suffering with an arm injury from the hit. Green says the he’ll play next week, but that isn’t a sure thing at this time. With the Bengals running game working so well, expect Hue Jackson to continue to protect Dalton with screens to his running back and short passes to tight end Jermaine Greshem in order to counter the Steelers’ pass rush.

The Steelers’ secondary has played extremely poorly in 2014. The team is allowing 255.3 passing yards per game and has yielded 28 touchdown passes on the season. The team can bring the heat at times, but when teams are able to protect their quarterback there will usually be an open man to get the ball to. Green’s potential absence would help the Steelers keep the Bengals’ passing attack under control. It would only take one blown assignment for the Bengals to have a quick strike score even if Green sits out.

Running Game Thoughts: Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has turned the running game over to rookie Jeremy Hill and the results have been outstanding. When Hill has been featured he has had games with 154, 142, 148 and 147 yards on the ground showing both big play ability and strong inside running skills. On his third carry last week he produced one of the most memorable runs of the season, showing patience with his blockers, tremendous lateral ability and the speed to burst through the defense for an 85 yards touchdown run to that tied up the score.

Giovanni Bernard also looked good and was a vital part of the highly effective screen game employed by the Bengals, catching 5 passes for 45 yards and a score. Expect the team to utilize both talented young backs in the same vein going forward, with Hill being the feature back and with Bernard being used in space on outside runs and the short passing game.

Hill will be tested at Heinz Field against a strong Steelers’ run defense that is only allowing 99.3 yards per game on the ground. After watching the game film of the Bengals victory over Denver, the Steelers will likely move safeties up into the box, where they are more effective anyway, to shut down Hill while daring Dalton to beat them deep – and hoping that he’ll make the fatal mistake.

Projections:
Andy Dalton: 225 pass yds 1 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Hill: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Giovani Bernard: 35 rush yds, 45 rec yds
A.J. Green: 30 rec yds
Mohamed Sanu: 80 rec yds. 1 TD
Jermaine Gresham: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger has already thrown for a career-high 4,635 passing yards and only needs two passing touchdowns to tie his career-high 32 passing touchdowns. After being resistant to accepting the change in offensive coordinators (and styles) from Bruce Arians to Todd Haley, Big Ben has become adept at the shorter, quicker passing game.

With Antonio Brown’s incredible quickness and suddenness the offense becomes unstoppable at times. Brown has 1,570 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns through 15 games already surpassing his career highs set last season. Martavis Bryant has made a major impact with his big play ability and dependable tight end Heath Miller is always there when Ben needs him. This is an offense that is clicking right now and may be the only offense in the AFC that can go into New England and beat the Patriots in the post season this year.

The Bengals picked off Peyton Manning four times last week, with three of them coming in the fourth quarter sealing an important victory for the team. The Bengals’ defense had a few rough patches after a tremendous start to the season, but is falling back into place. The pass defense is ranked sixth in the league, allowing 233.6 yards per game and 14 passing touchdowns on the season. This could be one of the few defenses capable of slowing down Pittsburgh’s passing attack.

Running Game Thoughts: Le’Veon Bell recorded under 100 yards for just the third time all season last week, but he did find the end-zone for the fifth consecutive game and grinded his way to 63 yards against a tough Chiefs’ defense. Bell has cooled a bit from the torrid pace he was on after LeGarrettee Blount was released in Week 11, but is still proving to be one of the most talented and dangerous backs in the league. The Steelers will be counting on him this week as they look to take home the AFC North Crown and get an important home game to open the playoffs.

The Bengals have not been very good at stopping the run, allowing 124.8 rushing yards per game while yielding 15 rushing touchdowns on the season. The Steelers should be looking to pound the ball on a cold Western Pennsylvania night.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger: 265 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Le’Veon Bell: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
Dri Archer: 15 rush yds
Antonio Brown: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Markus Wheaton: 30 rec yds
Martavis Bryant: 45 rec yds
Heath Miller: 30 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Steelers 30, Bengals 27 ^ Top

Lions at Packers - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Lions’ passing game has struggled for the most part this season, but has particularly failed to gain traction on the road. Matthew Stafford has only six passing touchdowns in seven road games on the season. He only has 19 overall, so he hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard at home either. Luckily the team’s strong defense and productive running game has carried the team to an 11-4 record.

Calvin Johnson had has his worst statistical season since 2009, but some of that is due to a sever ankle injury that forced him to miss three game, and be used as a “decoy” when he first returned. Golden Tate is the only player in the passing attack that has surpassed expectations, easily setting career highs is receptions and receiving yards with 94 catches for 1,286 yards.

The Packers 12th ranked pass defense (228.1 ypg) should be able to match-up well with a struggling passing attack playing in December at Lambeau Field. The Lions have been practicing outdoors occasionally in order to prepare themselves for the elements, but as last week against a poor Chicago pass defense showed, the team just can’t get much going outside the comforts of a dome.

Running Game Thoughts: Luckily the rugged Joique Bell has been able to help the offense move the ball under any conditions. Bell had 13 carries last week, gaining 74 yards and a touchdown in Chicago. Bell was benched for the first quarter, however, for disciplinary reasons, allowing Reggie Bush to get some work. Bush had his best game of the season, in what has been an injury marred disappointing year, gaining 54 yards on the ground with an additional 44 yards through the air. He also scored only his second rushing touchdown of the season. The Lions’ best chance to win the NFC North this week is to establish a running game, exploiting Green Bay’s weakness while also keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field while.

The Packers have been doing a far better job against opposing runners than earlier in the season but is still allowing 120.5 yards per game and have yielded 11 rushing touchdowns. The improvement came when the team moved Clay Mathews inside to the middle line backer position. While supposedly he is not happy with the move, the results have spoken for themselves.

Projections:
Matthew Stafford: 275 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Joique Bell: 100 rush yds, 1 TD 35 rec yds
Reggie Bush: 45 rush yds, 55 rec yds
Calvin Johnson: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 55 rec yds
Eric Ebron: 25 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Rodgers is recording an MVP-caliber season, despite coming off back-to-back poor showings on the road. Rodgers is averaging 255.9 yards per game with 13 touchdown passes on the road compared to 301.1 yards per game with 23 touchdown passes at home. When Rodgers last faced the Lions in Week 3 he threw for only 162 yards and one touchdown on the road, one of his worst games of the season.

The Packers have to be happy that the NFC North title (and perhaps more importantly the home playoff game that comes with it) will be decided at Lambeau Field. The Packers feature two of the best starting wide-out tandems in the league in Nelson and Randall Cobb, who are both having outstanding seasons. Should teams pay too much attention to Nelson and Cobb, the Packers can then turn to rookie Davante Adams and tight ends Richard Rodgers and Andrew Quarless who have all made major contributions at times this season.

The Lions pass defense is allowing only 232.1 yards per game and has given up 21 touchdown passes on the season. The Lions have a good inside pass rush, and Rodgers could be under duress a good part of his day. He will need to rely on his mobility and the ability of his weapons to make plays.

Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy has been able to take advantage of the opposing team focusing too much of its attention on the passing game to the tune of 4.7 yards per carry. He has once again surpassed 1,000 yards after an extremely slow start to the season and is one score away from another double-digit rushing touchdown season. This season he’s added more versatility to his game averaging 10.3 yards per reception with four receiving touchdowns making him a complete three-down back.

Lacy will face the league’s top ranked run defense that is allowing a mere 63 yards per game and held Lacy to only 36 yards in Week 3.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 295 pass yds, 2 TDs, 15 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 65 rush yds, 25 rec yds
James Starks: 15 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Jordy Nelson: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Randall Cobb: 45 rec yds
Davante Adams: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Andrew Quarless: 35 rec yds

Prediction: Packers 27, Lions 20 ^ Top

Browns at Ravens - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: While I’m contractually obligated to provide my passing game thoughts for the Browns in this space, I have only two words: “Connor Shaw.” The undrafted rookie out of South Carolina was promoted from the team’s practice squad this week as a result of Johnny Manziel and Brian Hoyer’s injuries. Manziel has already been ruled out with a hamstring injury and Hoyer is expected to miss the game as well with a shoulder injury. Shaw will be facing a Ravens team on the road in a must win game for them. Expectations should be minimal.

Running Game Thoughts: One would be wise to expect a run heavy attack from the Browns this week lead by rookie Isaiah Crowell, who was the leader of the committee last week, after being behind fellow rookie Terrence West in the rotation. West was “benched” last week in favor of veteran Shaun Draughn after a reported bad practice week. Over the course of the season predicting the Browns’ running back rotation has been a Belichickean level exercise in futility. Crowell has surely looked the part when given significant carries, but volume could be an issue for fantasy owners.

Making matters worse for Crowell is that he’ll be facing the league’s fourth-ranked run defense. The Ravens are allowing only 86.9 yards per game and should be stacking the line against a Shaw-lead passing game.

Projections:
Connor Shaw: 140 pass yds 1 TD, 3 INTs., 35 rush yds
Isaiah Crowell: 55 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Terrance West: 35 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Josh Gordon: 35 rec yds
Andrew Hawkins: 40 rec yds
Cameron Jordan: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The highlight of last week for Joe Flacco was having President Obama morph James Franco into his pseudo-brother when he called the actor “James Flacco.” Otherwise it was a brutal week as the quarterback came up small in a game that just may have shattered the Ravens’ playoff chances. Now the team will need a victory and help from other teams to move into the postseason. Flacco completed only 42 percent of his passes and threw three interceptions in the loss to Houston.

Torrey Smith got off to a slow start to the season, but has surpassed veteran Steve Smith over the course of the season to become the Flacco’s go-to target. Smith has always been a hit-or-miss option due to his limited route tree. He excels as a deep target but doesn’t see many passes in the short or intermediate passing game.

The Browns are allowing 220.1 passing yards per game with 20 passing touchdowns on the season. In Week 3 the Browns held Joe Flacco to 217 yards with only one touchdown. This could be a low-scoring defensive battle.

Running Game Thoughts: Justin Forsett claims his ankle is fine and that the injury hasn’t been holding him back, but he has not looked good the last two games after putting up career high numbers this season. He has 1,147 rushing yards on the season with eight rushing touchdowns, after scoring only eight rushing touchdowns in his career prior to this season. The Ravens have a good offensive line, but injuries are starting to take a toll on the unit. If Forsett is not at 100 percent the team could be in some trouble as Bernard Pierce hasn’t given them much and rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro was placed on IR.

The Browns are ranked dead last in rushing defense giving up 142.4 yards per game with 13 scores on the ground. The Ravens will be looking to take advantage of the Browns inability to stop the run, provided their horses are up to the task.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 5 rush yd
Bernard Pierce: 15 rush yds, 5 rec yds
Justin Forsett: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yards
Torrey Smith: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve Smith: 55 rec yds
Owen Daniels: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Ravens 24, Browns 10 ^ Top