Colts at Patriots - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck didn’t have a huge game for the Colts last week in their win over the Broncos, but he did enough, throwing for 265 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. T.Y. Hilton continues to be the team’s leading receiver with tight end Coby Fleener basically becoming the number two option. Reggie Wayne failed to get even one target against Denver and should not be in fantasy lineups this week despite the fact he had 91 yards when Indy and New England met back in Week 11. Luck threw for 303 yards and a pair of scores in that contest and Fleener had a career-high 144 yards. Both of the aforementioned, as well as Hilton, should get serious fantasy consideration against the Patriots.

New England was solid against the pass during the regular season and – for the most part – held opposing playmakers in check. The Patriots allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks and only three teams gave up fewer points to wide receivers, though the team was merely average versus tight ends. Joe Flacco had a big game against New England last week, but they did hold true to form against wideouts, with no receiver gaining more than 62 yards.

Running Game Thoughts: Daniel Herron was less than explosive last week against Denver, running the ball 23 times and gaining just 63 yards, with no run going for more than eight yards. He did find the end zone though, and led the team with eight receptions. Herron didn’t play against the Patriots back in Week 11, but things have changed since then, and a running back that gets 20+ touches per game (as Herron has in the playoffs) has to be a fantasy option despite a difficult match-up against New England.

The Patriots were very good against the run in the regular season, ranking ninth in the NFL in run defense while allowing the second-fewest rushing scores. They failed to continue their run-stuffing ways against the Ravens however, as Justin Forsett gained 129 yards, though New England did not give up a rushing score.

Projections:
Andrew Luck: 330 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Dan Herron: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Donte Moncrief: 40 rec yds
Reggie Wayne: 35 rec yds
Hakeem Nicks: 25 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Allen: 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Tom Brady threw for 367 yards with a trio of scores and one interception in New England’s win over Baltimore last week. The top pass-catcher was Rob Gronkowski (no surprise), who had 100+ yards and a score on seven catches, while the wide receiver trio of Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell each had at least 60 yards and caught three scores (one of which was a pass from Edelman to Amendola). Brady had 257 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions against the Colts back in Week 11, with Gronkowski adding 71 yards and score. The league’s top tight end is a must-start if possible, and Brady remains a good option against Indianapolis.

The Colts were merely decent against the pass overall during the regular season, though they did have a penchant for holding down the opposition’s wideouts. The team has continued to do so in the playoffs by shutting down the Bengals (not surprising considering the absence of A.J. Green in that contest), and then giving up just 211 yards and one score to Peyton Manning last week against the Broncos while holding all Denver receivers to fewer than 60 yards.

Running Game Thoughts: When the Colts and Patriots squared off in Week 11, Jonas Gray was anything but a household name. Things changed quickly, as the unknown runner went off for 201 yards and four touchdowns. That was a stark contrast to the situation last week, when not a single Patriots running back had more than three carries or seven yards, with the team failing to hand the ball off even once in the second half. Gray didn’t play last week despite apparently recovering from an ankle injury, but it would be hard to believe if he doesn’t get a chance this weekend. Still, it might not be wise for fantasy owners to put their faith in Gray considering he had only one game with at least 10 rushing yards since that match-up with the Colts.

Indianapolis had their troubles stopping the run over the course of the year (see: Gray, Jonas), but they did a solid job against the Cincinnati duo of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard two weeks ago. Last week they allowed C.J. Anderson to gain 80 yards on 18 carries, but kept him out of the end zone.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 320 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Jonas Gray: 45 rush yds
Shane Vereen: 15 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Julian Edelman: 80 rec yds
Brandon LaFell: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Danny Amendola: 50 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 80 rec yds, 2 TD

Prediction: Patriots 27, Colts 24 ^ Top

Packers @ Seahawks - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Unlike so many other top quarterbacks who seem to perform well in the regular season and then fall apart in the playoffs, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers didn't seem to miss a beat despite his team's week off. He torched a mediocre Dallas defense to the tune of 316 yards and three touchdowns while not throwing an interception. This brings Rodgers' season total to 28 touchdown passes with zero interceptions at Lambeau Field. His 133.2 quarterback rating at home is a testament to just how ridiculously good he has been in the comfort of Green Bay. From a fantasy standpoint, no one was better this season as Rodgers finished as the top-scoring fantasy quarterback in most formats or was just behind Andrew Luck. But if there has ever been a time to question Rodgers and his ability to produce high-quality fantasy numbers, it might just be this week as he and the Packers will head on the road to Seattle to play in perhaps the most hostile environment in all of football.

The Seattle secondary is becoming legendary at this point. Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas get the majority of the love in the media, but there are plenty of other players on this defense who either blanket opposing receivers or get after the opposing quarterback. They did it earlier this season when they played against Rodgers. It seems like years ago, but it was Week 1 when Rodgers and the Packers last went to Seattle. In that game, the eventual NFL MVP candidate would throw for just 189 yards and one touchdown while getting intercepted once and sacked three times. The Seattle defense has shut down some of the league's best offenses over the past few seasons, including the best statistical offense in NFL history when they played Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII. Over their past eight games, the Seahawks have conceded a total of just four passing touchdowns. While two of those came this past week against Cam Newton and the Panthers, it's worth noting that one of the touchdowns came in garbage time after the Seahawks had already wrapped up the game. This incredible stretch of defensive excellence has to give Packers fans some concern as their own team did not fare well in Seattle was blown out by 20 points when they played earlier this season and Seattle seems to only be getting better. Still, the duo of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb along with the emergence of receivers like Davante Adams and tight end Andrew Quarless does give Green Bay a fighting chance in this game. The Packers will throw the ball early and often in this game, so don't be surprised to see Rodgers attempt 40 or more passes, especially if the Packers fall behind early. The calf injury makes him less mobile, but as he showed against the Cowboys, Rodgers is still an elite QB even when he's not at 100-percent.

Running Game Thoughts: The regular season did not start off well for Packers running back Eddie Lacy. A consensus early-first round pick in most fantasy drafts, Lacy disappointed fantasy owners by getting off to an ugly start. He failed to rush for even 45 yards in each of his first three contests, which led to many people writing him off as an elite fantasy option and some even calling him one of the biggest busts early in the year. But just like all good things must come to an end, for Eddie Lacy, all bad things also eventually came to an end. As the Packers offense matured and improved as a whole, so too did Lacy's fantasy production. The second-year back ended the season with well over 1,500 total yards and 13 total touchdowns, justifying his original draft position. Not only that, but Lacy's consistency was almost unmatched. Including the Divisional Round of the playoffs against Dallas, Lacy has now compiled at least 100 total yards in 11 straight contests. While he is not known as a particularly excellent pass catcher, he has certainly done enough to remain a viable check down option for Aaron Rodgers, which has only served to make him an even better fantasy option in PPR formats. While there has been some ongoing concern that veteran backup James Starks would eat into Lacy's touches down the stretch, that hasn't been the case. Starks is typically only touching the ball between five to seven times each week which is enough to give Lacy a breather, but not enough to make Starks himself an exciting fantasy option.

This duo will have an especially tough task here in the NFC Championship game as they go up against one of the league's best run defenses, the Seattle Seahawks. Primarily known for their incredible secondary, the Seahawks are also no slouches against opposing running backs. Only one team (Baltimore) gave up fewer fantasy points to opposing running backs this season and only one team (Detroit) gave up fewer total rushing yards. To make matters even worse, this unit was on a hot streak to end the regular season and they carried it into this past week's game against the Panthers. The Seahawks have given up just one total touchdown to an opposing running back over there past seven games combined. They also haven't given up a single 100-yard rusher over that stretch. When the Packers and Seahawks matched up earlier this season, the Lacy and Starks duo was held to just 71 rushing yards and no touchdowns. That could be the case again this week in Seattle as the Packers will likely rely heavily on their potential MVP quarterback in what will be their most difficult matchup of the season.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 290 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 60 rush yds, 20 rec yds
James Starks: 20 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Jordy Nelson: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Randall Cobb: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Davante Adams: 50 rec yds
Andrew Quarless: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: After winning the Super Bowl in just his second season as a pro, Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson had a lot of hype heading into the 2014 season. Percy Harvin was back and looking healthy, Doug Baldwin was still on the roster as a reliable WR2 and the team was looking poised to make a run at back-to-back championships. Everything looked great for Wilson's potential to be a quality fantasy quarterback, but even with all of the indicators, few could have predicted that he would be as good as he was this season. Wilson finished the year with 3,475 yards and 20 touchdowns while throwing just seven interceptions, but it was his rushing totals of 849 yards and six touchdowns that truly made him a fantasy juggernaut. Wilson finished as the No. 3-scoring fantasy quarterback in standard scoring leagues despite the fact that the Seahawks shipped off Harvin to the Jets early in the year. No receiver truly stepped up to become a top fantasy option himself, but Baldwin was good enough to be a WR3 or Flex most weeks as he made 66 catches for 826 yards and three scores. The lack of production from the wide receiver position typically means that a quarterback is struggling, but that simply was not the case for Wilson, who preferred to spread the ball out to a variety of targets. He did so this past week in the Divisional Round of the playoffs when he threw for 268 yards and three scores against a Carolina secondary that had improved drastically down the stretch. The aforementioned Baldwin made three catches for 38 yards and a touchdown while tight end Luke Willson made four catches for 68 yards and a touchdown. But the big producer was Jermaine Kearse who had shown flashes throughout the year, but showed up when it mattered most by making three big catches which totaled 129 yards and a touchdown.

Unfortunately, none of these receivers has been quite consistent enough to be considered a top fantasy option as the Seahawks host the Packers in the NFC Championship game. The Packers have not been great against opposing passing games this season, but they did do a good job of shutting down the top target in the Dallas offense this past week, wide receiver Dez Bryant. Bryant had one of his quietest games in recent memory, making just three catches for 38 yards on the day. While some will point to the overturned catch late in the game that could have helped hedge an otherwise poor performance, the reality is that the Packers took Bryant out of the game and forced the other receivers to beat them. While Jason Witten had a decent game with six catches for 71 yards and Terrance Williams did score a touchdown, the Cowboys were simply not productive enough through the air to come away with a win. Wilson has never been the kind of quarterback to put the team on his back and win a game with a 400-yard, multi-touchdown performance, so it's expected that the Seahawks will rely heavily on their running game in this contest, leaving Wilson the opportunity to be efficient with the ball when he does need to pass. Of course, Wilson himself has proven to be a more-than-capable runner this season, so don't count him out as a fantasy producer this week, but it is unlikely that the Seahawks will come in with the gameplan of putting Wilson in a shootout against Aaron Rodgers.

Running Game Thoughts: Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch has been one of the most consistent fantasy players in the league since he joined the team back in 2010. The tailback is a five-time Pro Bowler and has scored double-digit touchdowns and over 1,200 rushing yards in each of his past four seasons. Those numbers are hard to come by, but it's pretty amazing to think that in his eighth year in the league, Lynch is enjoying his best fantasy season as a pro. Added usage in the passing game helped Lynch get to nearly 1,400 total yards on the season along with a career-high 17 total touchdowns. Only once from Week 9 through 17 did Lynch finish below 10 fantasy points in standard scoring formats. His usage is near or greater than any other running back in football, which makes him one of the most reliable fantasy options at any position, let alone running back where there is typically a huge fluctuation in statistics from week to week. However, this past week, the Panthers made it a priority to take Lynch out of the game and the team struggled to get him involved. He did break off a 25-yard run, but was otherwise held to a measly 34 yards on his other 13 carries throughout the day. The Panthers run defense was no slouch down the stretch this season, however, so it wasn't all that surprising to see them perform well, even against a high-quality back like Lynch.

In the NFC Championship game, the Seahawks and Lynch should be able to find a bit more running room against a Green Bay defense that has not been anywhere near as good against the run as the Panthers have been. Over their final five regular season games, the Packers gave up an average of 15.2 fantasy points per game (standard scoring) to opposing running backs. What's more alarming is that those numbers didn't happen against elite run offenses, either. Their opponents in those five contests were the Patriots, Falcons, Bills, Buccaneers and Lions -- not a single one of whom finished in the top half of the league in rushing on the year. This past week, they went up against 2014 NFL rushing champion DeMarco Murray who, as most expected, rushed for a solid total of 123 yards and a touchdown on the day. While that's not the biggest game Murray had on the year, it certainly gives hope to those who are looking at Lynch as their running back this weekend. But perhaps the most important factor to take into consideration is that Lynch himself exploited the Packers run defense to the tune of 110 yards and two scores when these teams played back in Week 1. Needless to say, expect a heavy dose of "Beast Mode" here in the NFC Championship game as the Seahawks will likely try to control the clock and keep the high-powered Green Bay offense off the field.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 240 pass yds, 1 TD, 20 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 115 rush yds, 2 TD, 10 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Kearse: 50 rec yds
Luke Willson: 40 rec yds

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Packers 23 ^ Top