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Inside the Matchup
Week 5
10/3/14

By: Sal Marcoccio | Brian Thorne | Nick Caron | Kyle Smith



MIN @ GB | BUF @ DET | CHI @ CAR | CLE @ TEN

TB @ NO | BAL @ IND | PIT @ JAX | STL @ PHI

ATL @ NYG | HOU @ DAL | CIN @ NE | SEA @ WAS

ARI @ DEN | NYJ @ SD | KC @ SF
 Predictions - YTD
Rk Staffer W L %
1 Smith 9 4 69.2
2 Marcoccio 11 5 68.8
3 Caron 11 5 68.8
4 Thorne 10 6 62.5

Vikings at Packers - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Teddy Bridgewater era got off to a wonderful start on a beautiful day at TCF Bank Stadium. The former Louisville star completed 19 of 30 pass attempts for 317 yards while adding another 27 yards on the ground with a score. Bridgewater looked composed while picking apart a below-average Atlanta secondary and showed a great connection with Jarius Wright. Wright is the team’s third wide receiver but Bridgewater made him his go-to guy and the young receiver responded with eight catches for 132 yards showing good open field running ability. The one downside was that Bridgewater, who is slight of build, injured his ankle on a scramble forcing him to leave the game. He was held out of practice on Tuesday but is expected to play Thursday. Bridgewater doesn’t look to run, but showed above-average scrambling abilities, but at 6’2” and 210 pounds his body isn’t built to take many open field hits. Greg Jennings and dynamic second-year wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson will need to be more involved in the offense as Bridgewater learns to go through his progressions and take what the defense gives him. Kyle Rudolph will miss his second consecutive game and the team used a committee approach to replace him, but former undrafted free agent out of Miami Chase Ford looks to have the most upside of the reserve tight ends.

The Packers haven’t generated much of a pass rush, but the secondary has still held up thus far holding opposing passing games in check. The Packers are allowing only 214 passing yards per game and have given up five touchdown passes while grabbing five interceptions through four weeks. The team faced its best opposing passing team last week in Chicago and forced Jay Cutler into multiple mistakes and shut him down completely during the second half. This will be a tough matchup for the hobbled rookie quarterback on the road during a short week.

Running Game Thoughts: The Vikings run game clicked on all cylinders against a pathetic Atlanta defense. Lumbering back Matt Asiata bludgeoned the Falcons for 78 yards on the ground and three touchdowns while dynamic rookie Jerrick McKinnon ran circles around them for 135 yards. The combination, while a pale comparison to suspended super star Adrian Peterson, looks like it can be an effective pairing going forward as teams will need to prepare for two very different running styles. Asiata’s superior blocking and pass catching skills and strong goal-line running will keep him on the field, but the rookie likely earned a bigger slice of the pie between the 20s with his breakout performance. Both backs should potentially be solid starters against a bad Packer run defense for teams facing bye-week crunches.

The Packers have been run over by opposing backs through four weeks, allowing 176 yards per game and five rushing touchdowns. The Bears’ Matt Forte and rookie Ka’Deem Carey were able to run over them last week, which bodes well for the Minnesota duo this week.

Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Matt Asiata: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Jerick McKinnon: 55 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Greg Jennings: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Cordarrelle Patterson: 55 rec yds, 35 rush yds
Jarius Wright: 40 rec yds
Chase Ford: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: “R-E-L-A-X, relax” said Aaron Rodgers to Packer fans everywhere worrying about the team’s poor start. The Packers offense then went into Chicago and got the fan base whipped into a frenzy of positivity. Jordy Nelson continued his dominant season catching 10 balls for 108 yards and two touchdowns. Nelson has a 33-459-3 stat-line for the season and has been the clear focal point of Rodgers’ looks in 2014. Randall Cobb isn’t far behind with 21 receptions for 239 yards and five touchdowns, after catching a pair against the Bears. Rookie Davante Adams looks to have overtaken Jarrett Boykin for the WR3 slot and had a 35-yard touchdown called back after a holding penalty. Adams can challenge a defense, which adds a new dimension to the offense and opens up space for Cobb. While he is already likely owned in all dynasty league, he should hold off the struggling Boykin and be on redraft fantasy radars as well.

Minnesota shouldn’t be much more than a speed bump for the surging Packer passing game this week. The Vikings allow 241 yards per game and six touchdowns through the air. Their secondary will have tremendous difficulties matching up with the superior talents lining up across from them in front of the Green Bay home crowd.

Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy’s slow start to the season continued in Week 4, but he did manage to score a touchdown and had another nullified by a penalty, offering some hope for his beleaguered fantasy owners. He faced three top-5 ranked run defenses in his first three starts. Against the Bears poor run defense, however, he had no excuse for only gaining 48 yards on 17 carries. His offensive line still did him no favors by not opening many holes, but Lacy has appeared sluggish at times as well. He is too talented and the Packers’ offense is too high powered for the running game to struggle all season. While a quarter of the season has already passed, it seems highly unlikely that Lacy’s numbers from his rookie season aren’t going to suffer a major dip in his second season.

The Vikings have played the run reasonably well, allowing 113.3 yards per game and three rushing touchdowns on the season, so it will not be a cakewalk for Lacy this week. He’ll need to take advantage of any holes that open up and his fantasy owners will be hoping for a few goal-line carries to save the day.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 385 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
James Starks: 25 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Jordy Nelson: 115 rec yds, 1 TD
Randall Cobb: 85 rec yds
Davante Adams: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Andrew Quarless: 25 rec yds

Prediction: Packers 37, Vikings 17 ^ Top

Bills at Lions - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: When I covered the Bills in Week 1, I wrote “The key to the Bills passing game in 2014 will be the development of EJ Manuel, who had an extremely inconsistent rookie season.” Oh well. After 14 career starts, it looks like the Bills have turned the page on Manuel’s career. The team lured veteran Kyle Orton out of retirement just before the start of the season and “The Neck-Beard” will now step in presumably to play game manger for the team. Rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins has looked the part of a star wide receiver and will likely be the focal point of Orton’s targets. Sophomore Robert Woods is a dependable possession wide receiver and could see a bump in targets with the more accurate Orton taking over.

Orton will be stepping into a hornet’s nest, as he’ll be facing the league’s fourth- ranked defense on the road in front of a crowd that should be worked up over the Lion’s 3-1 start to the season. The Bills’ passing game should improve with Orton under center but it may not click right away this week.

Running Game Thoughts: The Bills finished behind only the Eagles in team rushing yards last season, with 2,307 yards on the ground. However, the team has not been nearly as effective on the ground in 2014, averaging 122.1 yards per game with only one rushing touchdown and that coming from now benched quarterback EJ Manuel. Buffalo features a RBBC comprised of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, but unlike last season where there was a nearly even split, Spiller is seeing the far bigger workload than the 33-year-old Jackson. While Spiller has elite level speed and runs tougher than his smallish stature would have you believe, the heavier workload may be working against him. He is only averaging 4 yards per carry, despite a 47-yard carry in Week 2, which is a significant drop from his career average of 5.0 ypc. He is seeing the majority of carries despite being outplayed by the elder Jackson who is averaging 4.8 yards per carry. The splits may start evening up a bit going forward if the team feels that Spiller is crumbling under the heavy workload and decide to turn back to their under-rated veteran.

The Lions’ run defense finished last season ranked 6th in the league, and are currently ranked 6th this season as well, allowing only 80 yards rushing per game. However, middle line backer Stephen Tulloch was lost for the season after celebrating a sack of Aaron Rodgers, which could be a blow to the defense. The team is still strong up the middle though, so one should not expect a radical decline in their run defense.

Running Game Thoughts:
Kyle Orton: 205 pass yds 1 TD, 1 INT, 5 rush yds
Fred Jackson: 45 rush yds, 20 rec yds
C.J. Spiller: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Sammy Watkins: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Robert Woods: 40 rec yds
Mike Williams: 20 rec yds
Scott Chandler: 15 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford threw for 293 yards and 2 touchdowns last week against the Jets despite star wide receiver Calvin Johnson being used as a decoy. Stafford is completing a career high 64.2% of his passes and is averaging a career best 7.9 yards per attempt so Jim Caldwell’s promises to improve his mechanics seem to be coming to fruition. Stafford is also on pace for a career low in interceptions, which is perhaps the most important aspect of his development. New coordinator Joe Lombardi comes over from New Orleans, and has done a nice job of spreading the ball around, instead of solely focusing the offense on Johnson. While Megatron is the most talented wide receiver in the league and a matchup nightmare, any offense is better off with diversity. Former Seahawk Golden Tate is starting to make his mark in the passing game leading the team in receiving yards last week with 116, and rookie tight end Eric Ebron caught his first touchdown pass. The team is loaded with weapons in the passing game and things are falling into place for the team to get back into the playoffs and perhaps make some noise once there.

The young Bills’ defense made great strides in 2013 but have regressed a bit in 2014. They are allowing only 266.3 yards per game and have given up 6 passing touchdowns on the season. Buffalo has always had a ball-hawking secondary and have managed to grab 5 interceptions so far this season. The Bills secondary could sway momentum if they can force a few mistakes from Stafford this Sunday, but it’s more likely they will be turning and running after the Lions speedy wide receivers.

Running Game Thoughts: Joique Bell suffered a concussion last week and is in danger of missing this week’s game. He is having a disappointing season, but as the only true grinder in the backfield, his loss could be felt. Reggie Bush would see the majority of the carries if Bell does sit out, but the veteran has been an inconsistent runner in 2014. He has 148 yards on 39 rushes and hasn’t been a major part of the passing game either with only 18 catches for 112 yards on the season. The Lions could abandon the running game early in this contest.

The Bills presented an easy matchup for running backs last season, but have shown massive improvement in 2014 allowing only 71.5 yards per game on the ground without a rushing touchdown. The loss of last season’s leading tackler Kiko Alonso to a knee injury was thought to potentially be a serious blow to their run defense, but rookie Preston Brown has filled in nicely.

Running Game Thoughts:
Matthew Stafford: 345 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Reggie Bush: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 45 rec yds
Calvin Johnson: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Golden Tate: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Ross: 40 rec yds
Brandon Pettigrew: 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Eric Ebron: 50 rec yds

Prediction: Lions 37, Bills 30 ^ Top

Bears at Panthers - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler has never been a fantasy football darling. Interceptions and inconsistency have understandably damaged his reputation among fantasy owners. Things have been a bit different this season, however. He’s fourth in FPTs/G among QBs, and only Andrew Luck has more TD passes. It certainly helps to have the type of pass-catchers he has, and even with Brandon Marshall’s total of 25 yards in his past two games, he remains a WR1. The biggest surprise is TE Martellus Bennett, who is second at his position in FPTs/G. Fantasy owners should continue playing Cutler and Co. this week against a Panthers team struggling to stop the pass.

Though Carolina is a respectable 12th in the NFL in pass defense, it also ranks T-25th in passing scores given up. For this reason more than any other, the Panthers are currently 12th in FPTs/G given up to QBs. The Panthers have held TEs in check, but WRs? Not so much. They’ve surrendered the 10th-most FPTs/G to WRs, with the exclamation point being delivered by Steve Smith, who scorched his old squad for 139 yards and a pair of scores last week.

Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte is a unique dual-threat back who last week collected his first 100-yard rushing game in Chicago’s loss to the Packers. He’s also accumulated nearly 200 receiving yards, and no RB has as many targets (30) or receptions (24). Yet Forte remains 16th in FPTs/G because he has yet to find the end zone. Eventually that will change, with this week being a prime opportunity.

The Panthers’ run defense isn’t exactly the juggernaut it was last season. Pretty much the opposite, actually. It is T-14th in the league in rushing scores allowed, but 27th in rush defense, and no team is giving up more YPC than the 5.7 Carolina is. It has also allowed RBs to score twice on receptions and is giving up the sixth-most FPTs/G in the league to players at the position.

Running Game Thoughts:
Jay Cutler: 280 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Matt Forte: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Brandon Marshall: 100 rec yds, 1 TD
Alshon Jeffery: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Martellus Bennett: 60 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton has been anything but bad since missing Week 1 with an injury. Thing is, he hasn’t exactly been setting fantasy scoreboards on fire, either. He hasn’t thrown an interception, yet he has only three TD passes in three games. Multiple TD passes will come for Newton, and chances are rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin will be on the receiving end of at least one. Rookie WRs often struggle, but Benjamin has shown no signs of being overmatched. He’s eighth at his position in FPTs/G and joins TE Greg Olsen as solid plays this week against Chicago.

The Bears are T-2nd in the league in interceptions and are in the top 10 in sacks. Therein lies the good news concerning their pass defense. The not so good news is that Chicago is 20th against the pass, T-18th in passing scores given up and 27th in yards per attempt ceded. Only three other teams have surrendered more FPTs/G to QBs than it has, and just six other teams have allowed more FPTs/G to WRs.

Running Game Thoughts: Carolina’s running game is a mess, which is odd considering the amount of money it has tied up in running backs. But DeAngelo Williams won’t play this week, and Jonathan Stewart is iffy (as usual). Darrin Reaves would be the lead back minus Stewart, though he didn’t show much last week, with only 26 yards on 12 carries. It would certainly help if Newton started running again, as he has only 33 yards on eight carries this year. If Stewart doesn’t play this week, Newton may have no choice but to try to run the ball against the Bears.

Chicago is 20th in the NFL in run defense, T-14th in rushing scores permitted and 25th in YPC allowed. It hasn’t given up many receiving yards to backs, only two of the three rushing TDs it’s allowed have come via the RB. This means the Bears are in the top half of the league in terms of FPTs/G surrendered to RBs – 13th–fewest to be exact.

Running Game Thoughts:
Cam Newton: 250 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Jonathan Stewart: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Darrin Reaves: 30 rush yds
Kelvin Benjamin: 95 rec yds, 2 TD
Jerricho Cotchery: 60 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 70 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Panthers 27, Bears 24 ^ Top

Browns at Titans - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: To the surprise of many, Brian Hoyer has actually done a nice job under center for the Browns. He is in no way worthy of being on fantasy rosters, but at least the team has been competitive with him. Fantasy owners now need TE Jordan Cameron to return to relevance with a healed shoulder. He has played two games this season and has only 70 yards on three catches. He’s a TE1 when right, and the only Browns pass-catcher worthy of regular fantasy status. Andrew Hawkins could be a WR3 in some cases, though not this week against Tennessee.

The Titans were badly victimized by Andrew Luck last week, allowing the Colts’ QB to throw for nearly 400 yards with four touchdowns. Tennessee had been one of the better pass defenses in the league before the Indy debacle and remains in the top10 in pass defense despite Luck’s performance. It is still tied for 6th-fewest FPTs/G allowed to QBs and tied for 10th-fewest FPTs/G permitted to WRs, but the pair of TDs the Titans gave up to Colts TEs last week has pushed them to 11th-most FPTs/G surrendered to players at that position.

Running Game Thoughts: Ben Tate should return to action this week, making Cleveland’s backfield a fantasy mess. Tate, Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell should all see carries, and it’s anyone’s guess as to who gets the most. That’s unfortunate, because the backs have a good matchup this week with the Titans.

Tennessee is 11th in the NFL in YPC allowed, but the good news pretty much ends there when it comes to its run defense. It is 22nd in the league against the run, and only the Falcons have surrendered more rushing scores. The Titans are currently T-8th in FPTs/G given up to RBs.

Running Game Thoughts:
Brian Hoyer: 195 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Terrance West: 45 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Ben Tate: 35 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Isaiah Crowell: 20 rush yds
Andrew Hawkins: 70 rec yds
Miles Austin: 35 rec yds
Jordan Cameron: 40 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Jake Locker is likely to return this week after missing last week’s game against the Colts with a wrist injury. Yet he should remain on fantasy sidelines, a fact that holds true for all Tennessee pass-catchers with one exception. That exception is TE Delanie Walker, who has been outstanding in four games this season. He’s fourth in FPTs/G at his position, and only Jimmy Graham has more receiving yards. Walker should continue to be in fantasy lineups this week against the Browns.

Cleveland has only allowed four passing scores this season, which is tied for the fourth-best total in the league. It should be noted, however, that it had a bye last week, and other numbers tell a somewhat different story. The Browns are 27th in the league in pass defense and 25th in yards per pass attempt allowed. Yet because of the few touchdowns Cleveland has given up through the air, it is in the middle of the league in FPTs/G surrendered to QBs and has allowed the 7th-fewest FPTs/G to WRs. The Browns have only statistically struggled against TEs, but almost all of that damage was done by Jimmy Graham in Week 2.

Running Game Thoughts: Shonn Greene is averaging 4.7 YPC, and Bishop Sankey is averaging 5.1 YPC, which are superior averages. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, only once in four games has either of the two gotten more than 10 carries, which makes in almost impossible for them to put up numbers worthy of being in fantasy lineups. The two have an excellent matchup this week with Cleveland, but fantasy owners will need to be pretty desperate to use them.

The Browns have been sliced apart on the ground this season. They have allowed more FPTs/G to RBs than any team outside of Atlanta, and despite playing in just three games this season they’re T-21st in rushing scores given up. Cleveland is 29th in the league in rush defense and 31st in YPC surrendered.

Running Game Thoughts:
Jake Locker: 190 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 30 rush yds
Shonn Greene: 45 rush yds, 1 TD
Bishop Sankey: 35 rush yds
Kendall Wright: 45 rec yds
Justin Hunter: 40 rec yds
Nate Washington: 30 rec yds
Delanie Walker: 65 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Titans 20, Browns 13 ^ Top

Buccaneers at Saints - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Mike Glennon will return as the team’s starter this week after leading the Bucs to a win over the Steelers last Sunday. Glennon threw for 302 yards with a pair of scores and one pick in the game but completed just 50 percent of his 42 throws. He’ll be without rookie WR Mike Evans this week, who is out with an injury, but hopefully for fantasy owners that means good things for Vincent Jackson. The big receiver hasn’t registered many points for fantasy owners, with only 13 receptions on 35 targets, but if he’s going to get things going, it’s a good bet he’ll do so this week against New Orleans.

The numbers pretty much tell the story for the Saints about how sub-par their pass defense has been this season. They’re T-28th against the pass, T-18th in touchdown throws given up, 22nd in yards per pass attempt allowed, T-23rd in sacks, and are one of just two teams in the league who have yet to intercept a pass. As one might imagine, these numbers mean hefty fantasy points for their competition. TEs haven’t done much damage against them, but New Orleans has permitted the 7th-most FPTs/G to QBs, and the 6th-most FPTs/G to WRs, with at least one wideout gaining 70 or more yards against them in every game this season.

Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin returned to action last week and picked up 40 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. He added 16 yards on a pair of receptions, and relegated Bobby Rainey to the sidelines. Martin hasn’t come close to replicating what he did his rookie year but has a good matchup this week, and fantasy owners shouldn’t hesitate using him as a RB2 against the Saints.

New Orleans is 21st in both run defense and rushing scores permitted, and 19th in YPC allowed. They’ve also given up the 9th-most receiving yards in the league to backs, and when you add it all together, you have a team that has ceded T-8th in FPTs/G to RBs.

Running Game Thoughts:
Mike Glennon: 225 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Doug Martin: 80 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Bobby Rainey: 20 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Vincent Jackson: 115 rec yds, 1 TD
Louis Murphy: 45 rec yds
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: 25 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Drew Brees continues to rack up passing yards, with at least 330 in three of his four games this year. But he hasn’t thrown for more than two TDs in a game and is 10th in FPTs/G among QBs as a result. Brees has a cadre of WRs to go to, yet fantasy owners can’t really count on consistent production from any of them, making the likes of Marques Colston and Brandin Cooks no better than a WR3 most weeks. Thankfully, there is one Saints pass-catcher that is completely and totally reliable – TE Jimmy Graham. If he’s not the best in the league at his position, he’s in the conversation, and with the match-up, both he and Brees figure to have big games this week.

Tampa Bay’s terrible stats against the pass aren’t solely a product of its epic beatdown at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons two weeks ago. Matt Ryan threw for three TDs but had less than 300 passing yards. The Bucs allowed Ben Roethlisberger to throw for three more TDs last week, but he did accumulate over 300 yards passing. Frankly, Tampa hasn’t stopped anyone through the air this season. It’sT-28th in pass defense, T-25th in passing scores given up, T-27th in interceptions and has allowed more yards per pass attempt than any other team in the NFL. Consequently, the Bucs have given up the eighth-most FPTs/G in the league to both QBs and TEs, and no team has surrendered more FPTs/G to WRs than they have.

Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram remains out, which has means Khiry Robinson, Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet are the trio of backs getting playing time. Robinson had a 62-yard run last week but has been otherwise unproductive, and Cadet had a good day catching passes last week but hasn’t run the ball at all. Thomas, meanwhile, has done little of note, and none of the Saints’ RBs are really worthy of being in fantasy lineups this week against Tampa.

The Buccaneers have allowed the 9th-lowest YPC average in the NFL, are 18th in run defense and T-21st in rushing scores surrendered. Still, they have yet to allow a single RB to gain at least 75 yards on the ground and are 15th in FPTs/G allowed to RBs.

Running Game Thoughts:
Drew Brees: 330 pass yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
Khiry Robinson: 55 rush yds
Pierre Thomas: 30 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Travaris Cadet: 15 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Marques Colston: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandin Cooks: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Kenny Stills: 35 rec yds
Jimmy Graham: 110 rec yds, 2 TDs

Prediction: Saints 31, Buccaneers 21 ^ Top

Ravens at Colts - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco has been solid in helping lead Baltimore to a 3-1 start, throwing seven TD passes against just two interceptions. He hasn’t been QB1 solid, but he’s perfectly capable of being a bye-week fill-in and ranks 15th among QBs in FPTs/G. Flacco has certainly been helped by the outstanding resurgence of WR Steve Smith. The fiery Smith is fourth at his position in FPTs/G and has three 100-yard games so far this year. Unfortunately, his production has come at the expense of the other Ravens WR named Smith – Torrey – who has only eight receptions all season. At TE, Owen Daniels once again becomes a viable option, particularly this week against Indianapolis.

After squaring off against the passing attacks of the Broncos and Eagles in Weeks 1 and 2, the Colts got a chance to even things up by facing the Jaguars and Titans in Weeks 3 and 4. Though Indy didn’t allow huge games to the likes of Blake Bortles and Charlie Whitehurst, it didn’t exactly shut them down either. The Colts’ pass defense numbers tell the story of a team that is just below average against the pass. They are tied with Dallas for ninth-most FPTs/G allowed to QBs and have given up the fourth-most FPTs/G to TEs, with a player at that position gaining 80 or more yards in three of the Colts’ four games. Yet they are the opposite when it comes to WRs, as Indy has yet to allow a player at the position to amass 80 yards, and it has surrendered the 3rd-fewest FPTs/G in the NFL to WRs.

Running Game Thoughts: Bernard Pierce will make his return to the lineup this week, making the team’s RB situation a jumbled mess for fantasy owners. Pierce, Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro have each been excellent at times, and each figures to get the ball in their hands at some point this week. However, that type of distribution means less overall production from each, so fantasy owners would be wise to avoid the situation until (or unless) it is clarified, starting this week against the Colts.

Indianapolis is T-21st in rushing scores ceded and 18th in YPC allowed, yet it’s 11th in the league in rush defense. Yet due in large part to Darren Sproles, only the Chargers have given up more receiving yards to RBs than the Colts, who are 14th in FPTs/G surrendered to RBs.

Running Game Thoughts:
Joe Flacco: 230 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Bernard Pierce: 45 rush yds, 1 TD
Justin Forsett: 35 rush yds, 30 rec yds
Lorenzo Taliaferro: 25 rush yds
Steve Smith: 80 rec yds
Torrey Smith: 45 rec yds
Owen Daniels: 65 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: In four games this season, Andrew Luck has stat lines of: 370 yards, 2 TDs; 172 yards, 3 TDs; 370 yards, 4 TDs; and 393 yards, 4 TDs. One guess as to which QB is the leader in fantasy points. Luck’s TD throws have been spread around all positions, with RB Ahmad Bradshaw the team leader with four. The only downside is that his top two WRs, Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton, have a total of one TD, by Wayne. Each receiver should be in fantasy lineups this week against the Ravens, a team that has struggled to contain players at that position all year.

Baltimore has given up plenty of passing yards this season – it is 24th in the NFL in pass defense – has just a single interception and is T-28th in sacks. Yet it has somehow allowed just a trio of passing scores in four games. The Ravens have given up the 3rd-fewest FPTs/G in the league to QBs and have permitted the fewest FPTs/G to TEs. Yet somebody is picking up points with all those yards, and it happens to be WRs. Six WRs have gained 75+ yards when facing Baltimore, which is why it has surrendered the 8th-most FPTs/G to players at that position.

Running Game Thoughts: Trent Richardson continues to get nearly twice the carries as Bradshaw, even though Richardson hasn’t produced at nearly the same pace as his teammate. But since Richardson does get all those touches, he’s occasionally worthy of a flex play – just not this week. Fantasy owners should continue to roll with Bradshaw, but Richardson needs to be out of lineups against Baltimore.

Only six teams in the league have allowed fewer FPTs/G to RBs than the Ravens. They’re currently 7th in the NFL in rush defense, T-8th in rushing scores allowed, and have given up the 6th-lowest YPC average in the league.

Running Game Thoughts:
Andrew Luck: 310 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Ahmad Bradshaw: 50 rush yds, 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Trent Richardson: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Reggie Wayne: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Hakeem Nicks: 20 rec yds
Dwayne Allen: 30 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 15 rec yds

Prediction: Colts 24, Ravens 20 ^ Top

Steelers at Jaguars - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t had a superb season, though he has had his moments – including 300-plus yards and three scores last week against Tampa. He’s a QB that fantasy owners should play based on matchup, as is the Steelers TE, Heath Miller. Those two are the opposite of the team’s leading WR, Antonio Brown, who ranks first among WRs in FPTs/G and should be in every starting lineup – along with his QB – this week against the woeful Jaguars.

Prepare to be completely unsurprised by the next sentence. The Jacksonville Jaguars are completely awful against the pass. Their NFL ranks in some categories are as follows: pass defense: last, TD throws allowed: last, yards per pass attempt allowed: 30th, interceptions: T-27th. The Jags are in the topthree in each relevant fantasy passing category as well. They’ve allowed the 3rd-most FPTs/G in the league to TEs, the 2nd-most FPTs/G to WRs, and the most FPTs/G to QBs.

Running Game Thoughts: The Steelers have had success running the ball with Le’Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount, though fantasy owners would probably appreciate it if Bell had more than one touchdown. Nonetheless, his ability to both run and catch makes him a top-tier fantasy option, and in fact, he’s fifth in FPTs/G at his position with the chance to move up the rankings this week versus Jacksonville.

The Jaguars don’t stink against the run quite as badly as they do the pass, but they’re still bad. Jacksonville is 25th in the league in run defense, T-21st in rushing scores permitted and 16th in YPC allowed. It has given up the 6th-most receiving yards in the NFL to backs and has allowed the 3rd-most FPTs/G to RBs.

Running Game Thoughts:
Ben Roethlisberger: 305 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Le’Veon Bell: 115 rush yds, 1 TD, 30 rec yds
LeGarrette Blount: 35 rush yds
Antonio Brown: 105 rec yds, 2 TD
Markus Wheaton: 60 rec yds
Lance Moore: 35 rec yds
Heath Miller: 65 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: There has been plenty of talk about the promise that Blake Bortles has shown since finally seeing game action. That’s great, but there isn’t much he can do for fantasy owners right now, which is the main focus here. It doesn’t help that Bortles has nobody in particular to throw to, with Justin Blackmon suspended and Marqise Lee and Cecil Shorts sidelined. In fantasy terms, there’s nothing to see here and no player worthy of starting when the team takes on Pittsburgh.

Somewhat remarkably, the Steelers are ranked between 15th and 18th in a number of pass defense categories: passing yards per game allowed, touchdowns, yards per pass attempt allowed and sacks. Unsurprisingly, they are ranked 18th in FPTs/G given up to QBs. Yet things get a bit more varied from there, as the team has permitted the 12th-most FPTs/G to WRs and the 6th-most FPTs/G to TEs.

Running Game Thoughts: Toby Gerhart scored last week but has otherwise done little for fantasy owners or the Jaguars, so the team started getting the ball to Denard Robinson. The former Michigan QB got nine carries last week but picked up only 25 yards. Neither of the Jacksonville runners has much to offer fantasy owners against the Steelers.

Though not the Steel Curtain anymore, Pittsburgh is T-15th in rush defense, T-14th in rushing scores ceded and 24th in YPC allowed. It has allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards in the league to RBs, which is one reason why the Steelers have given up the 14th-fewest FPTs/G to RBs.

Running Game Thoughts:
Blake Bortles: 195 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 20 rush yds
Toby Gerhart: 45 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Denard Robinson: 20 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Allen Hurns: 60 rec yds
Allen Robinson: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Mike Brown: 20 rec yds
Clay Harbor: 45 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Steelers 28, Jaguars 14 ^ Top

Rams at Eagles - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: For at least one of the 53 players in St. Louis the early bye week came at a perfect time, allowing QB Shaun Hill (thigh) an opportunity to heal and retake the starting role. Despite Coach Jeff Fisher has not wavered in saying that saying that Hill will be the starter as soon as he is healthy, on Wednesday afternoon it was announced that QB Austin Davis would continue to lead the team. The change of heart may be related to Davis throwing his way to the top completion percentage in the NFL at 72.3%. Despite losing their starter in the preseason, the Rams have a top ten passing attack, averaging 264 passing yards per game, more than both Denver and Green Bay. Points haven’t frequently accompanied those yards though, as only three passing touchdowns have been thrown compared to four interceptions, making them one of only five teams to have more picks than scores. A slew a pass catchers are averaging between 15 and 30 receiving yards per game, but only TE Jared Cook (59) and WR Brian Quick (78) are worth considering in fantasy leagues. Through three weeks, Quick has not gained less than 60 yards; Cook has gained at least 45 yards in each game this season. With St. Louis struggling on defense the pass catchers always have the potential to see garbage time targets, and in the event the games turns into a shootout like it did in Week 3, their fantasy usefulness is even higher.

In Week 4 the Eagles allowed the fewest yards they had all season, along with tying their marks for fewest touchdowns and most interceptions, as well as recording the most sacks. They also scored a pair of special teams touchdowns and returned an interception for a score. Only three receivers caught more than 50% of the passes thrown their way and their quarterback completed less than 57% of his attempts. In spite of these defensive achievements, Philadelphia lost for the first time in 2014. To be fair, the passing defense wasn’t the issue last week, but seeing an effort like that squandered often takes a mental toll on the team that may be hard to shake off before kickoff of the next game. Especially when facing a Rams team coming out of their bye week, Philadelphia will have to be careful to not let the loss in Week 4 carryover into Week 5. The defense should try to build on the momentum they gained while on the road and bring it home with them to Philadelphia, hopefully providing the offense with a chance to make amends for their shortcomings and putting the team back on a winning track.

Running Game Thoughts: The reality of the NFL has been a cold splash of water on the face of fantasy football, a least as far as the Rams rushing attack is concerned. Where RB Zac Stacy was expected to be the workhorse back, St. Louis has given progressively more carries to RB Benny Cunningham in each of the three games they’ve played, most recently taking 9 compared to 12 for Stacy. The starter has certainly been more effective, but with only 4.3 yards per carry he doesn’t even crack the top 20 individual rankings. As a team the Rams are even worse on the ground, averaging just 3.9 per rushing attempt and a pedestrian 104 yards per game. With only one rushing touchdown scored all year the St. Louis ground game is one of the least effective in the league, and as Cunningham sees more and more touches Stacy will continue to see his value drop. For the meantime, he is averaging 60 yards on the ground and 20 through the air, so if he can find the endzone after resting up during the bye week it may at least result in a respectable day on the fantasy gridiron.

Of the teams that give up more than 120 rushing yards per game, Philadelphia has surrendered the fewest rushing touchdowns, balancing on that fine edge of being a “bend but don’t break” defense. One cause for optimism is that St. Louis isn’t a strong rushing team and in addition to being endzone-shy they’re not particularly prolific on the ground either. Comparing team rushing performances to offensive rankings, the Eagles have played well against weak rushing teams and have struggled against the good ones, providing a reasonable litmus test for opponents who may feel they have something to prove. If this trend continues, St. Louis may be in line for another disappointing backfield performance, but after watching Philadelphia’s Week 4 opponent total 218 yards on the ground and add another 65 yards through the air to running backs, the Rams are certainly looking forward to their chances on Sunday.

Running Game Thoughts:
Austin Davis: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Zac Stacy: 70 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Benny Cunningham: 25 rush yds
Brian Quick: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Jared Cook: 60 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: For the fantasy player who casually watches NFL game scores as they scroll by the ticker at the bottom of the screen, seeing the Philadelphia offense lay an egg had to come as quite a surprise. The defense and special teams put up 21 points in the first 22 minutes of the game on Sunday, and the next 38 minutes saw QB Nick Foles throw for 195 yards and two interceptions and fail to hit even 50% of his passes. Two of the passes he did complete were eventually fumbled away by the receiver; all four of the Eagles turnovers came on passing plays. Philadelphia held the ball for less than 18 minutes in Week 4, gaining only 11 first downs all day, six of which came on the same drive. The most obvious reason for the Eagles struggles is the injuries suffered by the offensive line. LT Jason Peters was the only lineman who played in his usual position. The unfortunate game of musical chairs has seen four different players at left guard, and the other two interior positions were also filled by backups. RT Allen Barbre was placed on injured reserve so the starting right guard was forced to take his place. The return of RT Lane Johnson (suspension) may help to stop the proverbial bleeding, but since he hasn’t played yet this season the team is hoping more than expecting that he’ll have a positive impact on Sunday. When Foles does have adequate time to throw the ball he’s helped Philadelphia earn 281 yards per game through the air, throwing six touchdowns to his four interceptions. His top pass catcher is WR Jeremy Maclin, followed by TE Zach Ertz and RB Darren Sproles, and behind him rookie WR Jordan Matthews still holds a slight lead on WR Riley Cooper. The young receiver has better big-play potential, but more importantly his ten first down receptions are five times more than that of Cooper. These conversions, both in traffic and on the perimeter, suggest that Matthews is the receiver trusted more by his quarterback, an important consideration for fantasy sleepers in the wide open Philadelphia offense.

Partially related to the pair of admittedly subpar opponents they faced to open the season, St. Louis is giving up the third fewest passing yards in the league at just 187 per game. Coming off of their bye week, the defense figures to be additionally formidable thanks to the extra preparation time. Considering that Philadelphia struggled mightily in Week 4 against a similarly strong defensive opponent, the Rams were provided with a blueprint for how to stymie the passing attack from Foles and company. Opponents have gained more than 180 passing yards against St. Louis just once this year, and none have achieved the 220 mark. No opposing quarterback has thrown more than two touchdowns against the Rams, and in two games the leading receiver didn’t break 60 yards; in the third an elite wide receiver was held to less than 90. The Rams also have recorded two interceptions in three games, one of which was returned for a touchdown. The only true deficiency on the team is surprisingly related to the defensive line, where one of the strongest front fours in the league has managed just one sack in three games. Between the offensive line struggles that have befallen Philadelphia and the previous impressive defensive performances from the Rams, all indications are that the Eagles will struggle to move the ball through the air for a second straight week after opening the season with three multi-touchdown and 320 yard performances which resulted in team victories.

Running Game Thoughts: It may come as a shock because of the names on the back of the jerseys, but the Eagles currently have one of the worst rushing offenses in the league. The 2013 rushing champion RB LeSean McCoy was held to just 17 yards on 10 carries last week, and RB Darren Sproles added one touch on the ground for four yards and another two yards on two catches to bring his total yards gained up to six. The pair of explosive ball carriers combined for a grand total of 23 yards on 13 touches. Despite leading for over 41 minutes two of the most feared runners in the league touched the ball just 13 times in 56 total plays, just over 23% of the time. By comparison, the previous low for touch percentage for the pair was justover 36%, and in the three previous games this season their average was approaching 47.5% of total offensive touches. In the team’s one loss, McCoy and Sproles received less than half of the touches they normally do and the offense scored zero points. The message to Coach Chip Kelly should be clear, and fantasy owners should consider Week 4 as a one week anomaly. Look for McCoy to once again be back in the area of 25 touches and for Sproles to approach 15, with the offense poised to overreact to the poor passing performance from last week and the home crowd growing ever more restless to see their highly priced backfield become more involved.

Unless dramatic changes have been enacted during the bye week, St. Louis figures to have its hands full with the ground game that Philadelphia has in store. Through three games their opponents have averaged 155 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry; both marks are third most in the league. They’ve given up a rushing touchdown in every game they’ve played this season as well as a 100-yard rusher in each contest. To date they’ve faced some of the best rushers in the league, and as McCoy was the best back of 2013 the stage is set for him to finally have the quality game fantasy players and Philadelphia fans have been waiting to see. Unfortunately for the Rams their opponent has two allusive backs to have to deal with, sometimes simultaneously, and other times in relief of one another. To date St. Louis has only faced teams with one star ball carrier and very clear backups, so the Eagles ability to roll with both backs in their high paced offense will be an additional challenge for the visitors. Most recently the Rams held the league’s leading rusher to his most modest gains of the season, but at that he still broke triple digits on the ground, added another 30 yards through the air, and found the endzone once, all in the span of 28 total touches, a total which will almost surely be surpassed by the tandem of McCoy and Sproles.

Running Game Thoughts:
Nick Foles: 200 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
LeSean McCoy: 85 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
Darren Sproles: 45 rush yds, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Maclin: 60 rec yds
Jordan Matthews: 25 rec yds, 1 TD
Zach Ertz: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Eagles 24, Rams 17 ^ Top

Falcons at Giants - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Away from the comforts of their dome the Falcons have struggled this season, losing both contests by a two-touchdown margin. This trend has been in place for a number of years and remains one of the most curious observations from the NFL. In home games this year QB Matt Ryan has thrown six touchdowns and no interceptions, completing 72 and 87 percent of his passes in two contests. On the road he’s got four touchdowns and five interceptions, with completion percentages of 61 and 55. Even though the quarterback and the scoreboard may suggest otherwise, the receivers for Atlanta have put together good games. Star WR Julio Jones has over 80 yards in each contest and has scored once, while his counterpart WR Roddy White has at least 40 in each also recording one touchdown. About the only consistency between home and away games has been the offensive line, who have given up three sacks on the road compared to two at home, totaling only five in four games. After already losing their starting left tackle and moving rookie RT Jake Matthews to protect the blind side, Atlanta is now going to be without replacement RT Lamar Holmes (foot) and starting C Joe Hawley (ACL) for the year after they were injured in Week 4. With three of five starters gone, the struggles the team faced in 2013 may begin to resurface, with a crippled run game and a passing attack which was hung out to dry. Thankfully their skill positions are still intact, so while the O-line is being restocked with healthy bodies there’s hope that Jones, White, and Ryan can buoy the offense with the passing game.

In Week 5 the Falcons will be on the road, facing off against a Giants team which has found its stride on both sides of the ball, letting their defense lead the way with seven interceptions in the past two weeks as they’ve secured back to back victories after starting the year with consecutive losses. New York did not record any interceptions in Week 1 or 2, which put far too much pressure on the offense and eventually led to the implosion that followed. Conversely, when the defense was forcing turnovers the offense played but better as well, and that additive effect drove the team to two decisive victories. With both teams sitting at .500 a number of factors are leaning the way of the G-Men, and after watching Atlanta struggle in Week 4 the Giants have to be chomping at the bit to get after Ryan and the banged up offensive line. New York has recorded more interceptions (7) than every team in the league, and of the teams with six or more picks none have recorded more than the Giant’s nine sacks. When it comes to quarterback pressure, disrupting the offensive line, and creating opportunities in the secondary, there is no better team than what New York has put forth in the last two games.

Running Game Thoughts: The disparity between home and road games that is seen in the aerial attack is close to non-existent in the ground game. The team averages 122 rushing yards per game fairly consistently, and veteran RB Steven Jackson can be counted on to gain very near to 50 yards; he has yet to record greater than four yards more or less than that mark so far this season. The remainder of the rushing yards and attempts are shared between three players, and excluding a defensive lapse on a great run, the remainder have little fantasy value as long as Jackson is available. Four different players have combined to record five rushing touchdowns, diminishing Jackson’s value as a fantasy back despite being trusted with the most touches and most consistent yardage. This week more than ever, due to injuries suffered along the offensive line, Atlanta ball carriers are flex options at best with the potential for a touchdown to salvage an otherwise forgettable performance. Jackson is the rushing attempts leader in Atlanta with 50 carries, averaging out to just over 12 per game. The touches are simply spread amongst too many players for any one of them to have a significant statistical impact.

Making matters worse for the Falcons is that New York is a top ten rushing defense, allowing just over 101 yards on the ground per game. This figure has been largely consistent in both victory and defeat as have rushing touchdowns, where one has been surrendered to a running back in each contest this season. The only multi-touchdown game they gave up was in a blowout loss in Week 1 where the quarterback scrambled for a five yard score when they took over possession inside the redzone. All four of the Giants opponents are considered tough rushing teams and New York made an effort to not let that aspect of the offense dictate the outcome of the game. For the first two weeks of the season this seemingly backfired, where opponents threw successfully against Big Blue and used that to secure victory. In the two latest contests this strategy worked to perfection, keeping the ground game in check and forcing the passing attack to try to make plays they weren’t comfortable making. Considering the new configuration along the offensive line and the Falcons struggles in the passing game on the road, New York would be best served sticking with the defensive game plan that they’ve used thus far, putting pressure on Ryan and his pass protection to try to pull out a rare road win.

Running Game Thoughts:
Matt Ryan: 255 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Steven Jackson: 45 rush yds
Julio Jones: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Roddy White: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Devin Hester: 40 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: What a difference two weeks makes. After a discouraging 0-2 start the Giants were looking forward to anything that might provide their offense with a boost, and the hopeful return of WR Odell Beckham Jr. was seen as that potential missing piece. Now in the lead up to his potential rookie debut the passing attack seems all but situated and his presence little more than an unanswered curiosity. The first round pick has the physical skills to contribute to the offense right away but history has been almost universally unkind to rookie receivers, so the lessened excitement which surrounds him now is likely far more appropriate than it was previously. The surprise emergence of TE Larry Donnell is the principle reason for New York’s current contentment with their passing game. As a former wide receiver he has the ball skills of the new generation standout tight ends but has the body size of the older generation, making him close to ideal for the Giants who employ a heavy dose of the running game as well as a west coast aerial attack. Donnell has proved to be a matchup nightmare from the slot position and has recently exploited the lack of depth that defenses have at the linebacker and safety positions. The biggest struggle for defenses has been what to do with the massive tight end when they also have to respect WR Victor Cruz as a deep threat and a running game which seems to get stronger every week. Cruz is averaging nearly 75 receiving yards per game and Donnell contributes almost 60 as well. Eight of the nine touchdown passes that QB Eli Manning has thrown have gone to slot receivers or tight ends; Cruz has one from the slot on a crossing route, Donnell has four, and TE Daniel Fells has three despite recording just six catches all season while averaging ten yards per game.

The Giants apparent reliance on the slot receiver could be a considerable problem for an Atlanta team which saw S William Moore (shoulder) put on the short term Injured Reserve list. Even at full strength, Atlanta is surrendering over 275 passing yards per game and has recorded only two sacks and three interceptions in four games this season. After Moore went down in Week 4, the Falcons chose to use defensive sets which utilized three safeties in an effort to compensate for the weakness at that position. Unfortunately in doing so they chose to team a veteran with with a rookie and a second year player, creating two moderate-sized vulnerable areas rather than just one large defensive liability. Seeing as how a rookie quarterback burned Atlanta for 317 passing yards and was neither sacked nor intercepted it’s reasonable to say that the three deep experiment was a failure. Now instead of a rookie, the Falcons secondary will be faced with a two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback and an offensive game plan which puts a premium on making quick decisions and taking what the defense allows, minimizing the chance for mistakes and exploiting mismatches in the secondary. For a veteran quarterback, inexperienced safeties covering one of the most explosive slot receivers in the game and a pair of tight ends that no one has been able to stop yet certainly look like mismatches to be exploited.

Running Game Thoughts: In a Thursday night blowout victory where matchups heavily favored the Giants passing game the team still rushed for over 150 yards, and their nearly 40 attempts were used to keep the clock running. With the victory in hand RB Rashad Jennings was pulled early to give him extra rest in an effort to protect his health and have him remain the workhorse in the New York backfield. On the season Jennings still has the second most rushing attempts in the league so whatever rest he can get will certainly benefit him and the team in the long run. In Week 4 he was out-touched and outgained by backup RB Andre Williams who gained 66 yards on 15 touches and scored the first touchdown of his NFL career. Not only was Jennings pulled early in the game but the Thursday contest gives him several extra days to physically prepare for the next contest. In a full game effort during Week 3 Jennings rushed for over 175 yards and found the endzone, and had new York kept him in the game for Week 4 there’s a chance he could have challenged those numbers again as the defense wore down with each progressive running play. Even with the early exit last week Jennings is averaging 85 yards per game and has the third best mark in the league. Compared to the rest of the team he is responsible for 63% of the rushing attempts and 71% of the gains on the ground, making him an integral piece of the Giants offense and a clear RB1 in all fantasy formats.

Seven days may not be enough for Atlanta to figure out what went wrong last Sunday, and if they don’t get it figured out Jennings may be in line for another career day like he saw in Week 3. Last week, the Falcons gave up an amazing 241 rushing yards on 44 attempts, an average of 5.5 yards per carry, and four rushing touchdowns. Unlike the Giants who play at home this week after a Thursday game, Atlanta is on the road for consecutive weeks, losing almost a full day of preparation for travel time between weeks 4 and 5. For the season the Falcons are surrendering an average of 153 rushing yards per game, putting them in the bottom five of league rankings. The nine rushing touchdowns conceded by Atlanta are the worst in the league and are nearly double what the next worst teams have yielded. Aside from the Week 3 home blowout, the Falcons opponents have scored multiple rushing touchdowns in each contest. Between the recent success of the Giants, the latest shortcomings for Atlanta, the extra rest provided to the G Men, and the back to back travel weeks for the Dirty Birds, all signs point to New York being able to lean heavily on the run game and the Falcons defense having limited ability to slow down their rushing attack.

Running Game Thoughts:
Eli Manning: 280 pass yds, 2 TDs
Rashad Jennings: 90 rec yds, 40 rec yds, 2 TD
Victor Cruz: 95 rec yds, 1 TD
Rueben Randle: 45 rec yds
Larry Donnell: 70 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Giants 28, Falcons 20 ^ Top

Texans at Cowboys - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: After an impassioned QB Ryan Fitzpatrick fired up the Texans before kick off against his former team in Week 4, the veteran signal caller may once again be called to motivate the team as they prepare for a game that means more than just a win or a loss. In their first NFL game as a franchise, the expansion Texans beat Dallas in Houston, and from that moment the newcomers have viewed this matchup with extra importance. At 3-1 the Texans have already surpassed their win total from 2013, but their abilities in the passing game are hardly responsible for this success. The team averages only 225 passing yards per game and Fitzpatrick has thrown five interceptions in just four games. For his career, The Amish Rifle has thrown eight interceptions for every nine touchdowns, so his season ratio of five-to-five should come as no surprise. With weapons like veteran WR Andre Johnson and the emerging talent of WR DeAndre Hopkins both averaging better than 65 receiving yards per game the aerial attack is best used to balance out the run game, with the two wide outs demanding attention from the defense and enticing them away from stacking the box. Comparing the first two games which were decisive Houston wins, to the most recent two games which were a loss and a close victory, the Texans have thrown nearly twice as often in the contests where the results were least desirable, and those were the only games where Fitzpatrick threw interceptions. By increasing the number of passes he throws, Fitzpatrick is more likely to force passes into bad areas and create a bigger problem for the team than he is able to fix with his arm. The coaching staff should recognize this and do what they can to take the ball out of the quarterback’s hands, relying instead on the running game.

Once every four years Houston is granted an opportunity to challenge their interstate rivals, though their opponent views this as nothing more than little brother trying to earn their seat at the grown up table. Based on results from their last two meetings, the Texans still have a long way to go before they’re considered to be a perennial threat to the hold that Dallas has on the Lone Star State. Luckily for Houston, the Cowboys pass defense is far from an area of strength, so the inconsistencies that Fitzpatrick has displayed may be granted a pass in Week 5. The secondary has yielded an average of 271 passing yards per game, and with CB Morris Claiborne (patellar tendon) out for the year, Dallas will be without appreciable depth at the position. To accompany the yardage they allow the team has also surrendered eight passing touchdowns, more than three quarters of the league. Both of these are aided by the lack of pressure that the Cowboys have been able to generate on opposing quarterbacks, recording only five sacks in four games despite having a 3-1 record. The key to success for Dallas does not lie with their defense, but if the game gets into a shootout their offense has enough fire power to keep pace, and more importantly the Houston offense doesn’t have the consistency to challenge them.

Running Game Thoughts: According to Coach Bill O’Brien after Week 4, RB Arian Foster (hamstring) wasn’t fully healthy and was only given a managed number of snaps in order to help ease him back into full backfield duties. His stat line for the day was even worse than imagined, with six yards gained on eight carries, though he did bail out his fantasy owners by contributing another 55 yards through the air by catching seven of ten passes thrown his way. In total he recorded just over 60 yards on 15 touches, a far cry from what has come to be expected of him. With Foster still on the road to recovery, rookie RB Alfred Blue has assumed the bulk of ball carrying responsibilities for the past two games, putting up 78 yards on 13 carries before being stuffed in Week 4 with nine yards on nine attempts. Remarkably his one-yard average last week was better than Foster’s. Excluding a meaningless quarterback scramble with two minutes left in Week 3, the Texans have only scored one other rushing touchdown this season, and that came against the worst team in the league before Foster aggravated his hamstring. Despite being one rushing attempt behind the league leader, Houston has only rushed 49 times in the past two games, compared to 80 times in the first two. At a time when the team needs stability they’re foolishly abandoning the run game, and with it they’re seeing their offense struggle and the defense being put in increasingly harder positions.

Already thin in the defense, LB Bruce Carter (quadriceps) is expected to miss a game or two as he recovers from a muscle strain picked up last week. Thankfully for Dallas, DE Anthony Spencer, DT Henry Melton, and LB Rolando McClain were all active last week after missing time, and all appear to be ready to go again in Week 5. These three constitute the three most impactful front seven defenders that the Cowboys have available, and in their absence the team struggled mightily. After one game back it’s hard to suggest that the team is better off with them, but considering that they helped hold a high powered offense to 17 points it’s also hard to suggest that their presence wasn’t valuable. Through four games the Cowboys are allowing 109 rushing yards per game but have conceded just one touchdown on the ground. The most troubling statistic however is that Dallas yields the fifth most yards per rushing attempt, and the only reason they don’t give up more yardage is that opponents don’t rush more. Since the Texans are a better team when they run and the Cowboys have had a difficult time stopping the run, this creates the potential for Houston to have a bounce back game in an environment where they’re sure to be fired up. However, until the Texans coaching staff demonstrates that they understand what is required of the offense in order to win, this potential may go unrealized.

Running Game Thoughts:
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 240 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Arian Foster: 25 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Alfred Blue: 40 rush yds
Andre Johnson: 80 rec yds
DeAndre Hopkins: 75 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Unlike their southern counterpart, Dallas has no additional reason to be fired up for this contest other than to stay atop their division and improve on their current three game winning streak. To the Cowboys, the intrastate rivalry is a fabrication of Houston’s imagination, and with football feuds that have lasted for decades longer they’re certainly not wrong in their dismissal of the hype the visitors are trying to bring to the game. This season Dallas has averaged only 219 passing yards per contest yet winning their last three games by an average of two touchdowns. Compared to his physical struggles in Week 1, QB Tony Romo says his back is in significantly better shape than it was at the beginning of the season, and his play on the field supports that assertion. Excluding that game where he was clearly limited, Romo has thrown six touchdowns and only one interception in the three most recent contests. During that time he has thrown less than 30 passing attempts in each game game, and according to historical data Dallas performs significantly better when he is held below that mark. With Romo under center the Cowboys win 74% of the time he throws fewer than 30 times and only 52% of the time when he attempts 30 or more passes. For fantasy players this likely means that when the Cowboys are successful on the field it is unwise to expect phenomenal days from Romo or his receivers, but it also shows that as long as the team is performing well that Romo is equally as unlikely to have a bust of a day. For the season there have been only three significant contributors to the Dallas aerial attack: WR Dez Bryant the yardage leader with 73 per game and three total touchdowns, WR Terrance Williams whose 45 yards average and team leading four touchdowns all came in the redzone courtesy of defenses shading toward Bryant, and the ever consistent TE Jason Witten who averages nearly 40 receiving yards per game.

A collection of five teams is separated by four yards per game with respect to passing yards surrendered, and that cluster straddles the midline for mediocrity in that statistical category. Houston is among that group despite facing two of the league’s six worst passing teams, a tragic reflection of how they struggle to contend with legitimate teams despite being able to handle the league’s bottom feeders. Off to a surprising 3-1 start the Texans are led defensively by the former NFL Defensive Player of the Year in DE JJ Watt and a collection of other talented individuals who are given an opportunity to shine as offenses try to scheme away from the recently-extended highest paid defensive player in league history. Even with Watt frequently drawing two and sometimes three blockers he has recorded two sacks, recovered a fumble, blocked an extra point, and returned an interception 80 yards for a touchdown. The remaining ten players on the field have combined for only four other sacks and three other interceptions, while collectively they’re better than average in only surrendering five passing touchdowns in four games. The Texans are not the defensive patsies they were in 2013 but because the offense has a tendency to sputter and commit turnovers they’re on the field far too frequently and shoulder significantly more of the team’s burden than should be expected.

Running Game Thoughts: No team in recent history has invested more first round picks on offensive linemen than the Cowboys, and despite criticism and hypotheses how this would cripple other areas of the team, so far the strategy is paying off handsomely. Dallas sits atop the rushing rankings for another week with the most yards and attempts in the league, and only one team has scored more rushing touchdowns. The most significant portion of ground game contributions come from RB DeMarco Murray, the league leader in both rushing yards and scores. Nearly 81% of the teams rushing yards, 83% of their rushing first downs, and 100% of their rushing scores have come from Murray, and nearly 77% of all touches or targets out of the backfield are his. If you look up the word “bellcow” in the dictionary of fantasy football you’d see his picture. He leads the league in rushing with 133 yards per game, nearly 40 more than the next best ball carrier. As expected, he also has more attempts than every other back by a significant margin; his 99 are nearly 20 clear of the next highest total. Historically the problem for Murray has been injury, either limiting him on the field or keeping him off of it altogether. So far so good, but through four games Murray is on pace to record 396 rushing attempts plus another 36 through the air despite never seeing more than 270 total touches in any of his three previous seasons.

Fantasy owners undoubtedly love the volume being given to the star Cowboys running back, but it is not in the best interest of the team to continue to give Murray so many touches. Although not done appreciably to this point, both backup running backs are capable ball carriers that ought to be involved more frequently to rest the starter and preserve his health for the duration of the season. Regardless of who is chosen to run the ball on Sunday they are likely to see plenty of success against a Texans front seven who is conceding over 130 rushing yards per game. To date Houston has faced only one team with both a healthy offensive line and a demonstrated commitment to running the ball, and in that game they gave up 194 rushing yards on 40 attempts between two running backs, an average of nearly 4.9 yards per carry. The game plan for Dallas ought to be twofold, such that Romo throws the ball as little as is necessary and the Cowboys backfield employs a healthy rotation so that all ball carriers can be kept fresh for the barrage of carries that should be thrust upon the Texans. Until proven otherwise assume that the status quo will remain unchanged and that Murray will continue to see far too many touches but will turn them into a phenomenal day for both the Cowboys and his fantasy owners. After one more stellar performance it may be worth shopping him around your league and trying to sell high, preferably to someone who you won’t play in the next handful of weeks. As much as it would hurt to be burned by a player that you traded away, it will be worse to be scorched by a known injury risk and having deadweight on the roster. If you can obtain several serviceable replacement pieces, or better yet, another fantasy stud via trades, pull the trigger and wait for Murray to pull a muscle.

Running Game Thoughts:
Tony Romo: 205 pass yds, 2 TDs
DeMarco Murray: 115 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 2 TDs
Dez Bryant: 75 rec yds
Terrance Williams: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 35 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Cowboys 31, Texans 10 ^ Top

Bengals at Patriots - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Cincinnati came out of the gates strong, opening the season with three impressive wins and securing one of only two undefeated positions at the end of four weeks. This of course means they were on bye most recently, and considering how well they were performing, it’s possible that an extended rest may have come at an inopportune time. Prior to their time off the Bengals averaged 262 passing yards per game, though a portion of those yards have come on trick plays and the arm of WR Mohamed Sanu rather than the traditional passer QB Andy Dalton. Cincinnati is the only team that can boast a touchdown pass and a reception each going to two different players, where Dalton and Sanu have been the beneficiaries of, and benefactors to, each other. As a team the Bengals have recorded three receiving touchdowns, with the lone remaining score going to WR A.J. Green on a magnificent 77-yard reception to win the game in Week 1. Despite the talented pass catchers available on the squad Cincinnati has focused primarily on the run when in the redzone, so while they rank in the top half for passing yards there is not a team in the NFL who has thrown for fewer touchdowns. From a fantasy perspective this limits Green and Sanu primarily to the yardage they can record, 78 and 55 on average respectively, though their presence on the field is much more significant as it is them who prevent the defense from stacking the box to slow down the ground game.

Squaring off against New England isn’t likely to do any favors to the aerial attack, as the team has the lowest yards allowed mark in the league. The two units are near mirror images of each other, with Cincinnati recoding yards but rarely finding the endzone, and the Patriots not allowing many gains but permitting six passing touchdowns in four games. Their most recent display was the worst of the year, and unfortunately gives their Week 5 opponent a blueprint to follow. Against a run-first team (KC) New England gave up nearly 250 passing yards and surrendered three touchdowns through the air, while recording two sacks and forcing no turnovers. With an extra week of preparation the Bengals were already evaluating how best to defeat their opponent, but after watching a thorough dismantling on Monday night it’s hard to imagine that any game plan could fail against a defensive effort like that. What the Patriots have working in their favor is CB Darrelle Revis who almost exclusively lines up against, and frequently shuts down, a team’s top receiver. This means that Green is likely to be isolated on Revis Island for the vast majority of the contest and there’s a growing possibility that he may be statistically minimized in the game. Assuming as much, Dalton will have to rely even more heavily on the running game and receivers like Sanu or tight end Jermaine Gresham.

Running Game Thoughts: Though they’ve played one fewer game, the Bengals have more rushing attempts than eight other teams who have yet to have their bye week. Even with a disappointing 3.6 yards per carry the team averages almost 122 rushing yards per game, a true testament to their dedication to running the ball. The Cincinnati backfield is led by Giovani Bernard with Jeremy Hill in support; the former has almost exactly double the rushing attempts of the latter and is significantly more involved in the passing game. The starter averages nearly 62 rushing yards per game to go with another 49 through the air, enough to make him the third leading receiver on the team. In every game this season Bernard has either scored a touchdown or gained over 100 yards, and in one contest he did both. On the other hand Hill has been far more inconsistent but his role has increased since the beginning of the season. As the change of pace back he has found the endzone in each of the last two games and his physicality makes him an asset in short yardage and redzone situations. The presence of the other running back limits the upside of the other, but as demonstrated previously it is possible for them each to contribute at a relevant fantasy level, frequently doing so in the same game.

Following the Monday night drubbing, New England may find their dreams haunted for another week by a pair of highly capable ball carriers and a road team not afraid to rely on them heavily. Last week the Patriots surrendered over 100 total yards to two different running backs while allowing the starter (Jamaal Charles) to record three total offensive touchdowns. On only 34 carries the defense gave up 199 yards to the backfield duo, with an astounding 5.9 yards per carry average. Being dominated by the rushing attack opened up the passing game as well, and by the end of the night there was no shred of defensive pride which could be salvaged from the box score. Although they were exceptionally poor in Week 4 New England has failed to impress against the run this year, averaging 130 yards against per game and allowing a 4.4 yards per carry average. Unless Cincinnati enters Week 5 sluggish or a coaching miracle is performed in New England, all signs point to a second primetime implosion in as many weeks for the once-formidable Patriots.

Running Game Thoughts:
Andy Dalton: 220 pass yds, 1 TD
Giovani Bernard: 75 rush yds, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Hill: 60 rush yds, 10 rec yds, 1 TD
A.J. Green: 25 rec yds
Mohamed Sanu: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Gresham: 20 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: A recent string of unfortunate or ill-advised managerial decisions have left the Patriots with one of the weakest offensive lines in the league. Cap space concerns caused G Logan Mankins to be traded, giving away the team’s best O-lineman for what amounts to a backup tight end. TE Tim Wright is not a strong counterpart to Rob Gronkowski and is hardly better than former TE Aaron Hernandez who hasn’t been a member of the league for a year and a half. Stubbornness let WR Wes Welker leave, only to have him replaced by an injury-prone and less capable facsimile with a similar financial impact; WR Danny Amendola has only three receptions for 17 yards on nine targets in four games this season. Injuries cost veteran WR Austin Collie his spot on the team, and saw an investment made in S Adrian Wilson go to waste. This collection of missteps have left the Patriots with inexperienced players across the board on offense, and the mystique of Coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady have thus far been unsuccessful in unifying the leftovers into a functional offense. There are only two teams in the league who average fewer passing yards per game than New England and both of those squads are projected to start backup quarterbacks in Week 5. Though Brady has been a shadow of his former self, WR Julian Edelman is averaging 71 receiving yards per game and has found the endzone while Gronkowski has pulled in three scores and a 37 yard average despite slowly been reintroduced to the offense.

Once the Gronk-tastic tight end is finally allowed to play a full game defenses may begin to fear the New England offense a little more, but his gradual progression suggests that day is not coming this week. Still, him being partially available is generally better than most when they’re fully available, so the Bengals secondary will have to be prepared for the matchup nightmare Gronkowski presents. On the season Cincinnati is allowing an average of 239 passing yards per game but has surrendered just two touchdowns in three contests while recording seven sacks and six interceptions. Opponents gain a mere 5.4 yards per passing attempt thanks to a 54.3% completion rate, both of which are best in the league. The Bengals have been consistent all season, recording at least one sack and one interception in each contest while never yielding more than one touchdown. With Brady failing to hit even 60% of his passes or earn even six yards per attempt, the Cincinnati secondary is one that matches his current struggles with their areas of greatest strength. Historically when future Hall of Fame quarterbacks have been backed into a corner they’ve tended to come out firing, and more often than not they respond with an emphatic offensive performance, which leaves defenses in their wake. Nothing the Patriots have put forth this season suggests this is likely on Sunday night, but in the deepest doubts are when the transcendent performances have their greatest impact.

Running Game Thoughts: Much in the same way that a rising tide lifts all ships, so too will a poor offensive line disrupt all facets of the offense. Statistically, New England does not have the worst rushing attack in the league, but thanks to the turmoil along the line of scrimmage this observation grows ever more elusive. The team averages less than 98 rushing yards per game despite a comfort with both RB Stevan Ridley and his backup RB Shane Vereen. On the ground Ridley has received twice as many touches but has been less efficient, gaining only 3.6 yards per carry compared to 4.4 from Vereen. The backup however is significantly more active out of the backfield, with 14 receptions compared to only three from Ridley. Both backs have scored on the ground, neither has broken a run of 20 or more yards, and only Vereen has scored via the passing game. In terms of total yardage the pair are almost identical, leaving only their touchdowns to separate their fantasy value. On a sputtering offense and averaging under 55 yards per game, neither stands out as a go-to fantasy back, but the versatility that Vereen exhibits gives him slightly higher upside despite Ridley being the primary ball carrier.

Based on rushing averages New England will be the worst ground attack that the Bengals have faced this season, ranking six places behind the next worst team. In that group of four opponents the Patriots are tied for fewest touchdowns and have the lowest per carry average by nearly a full yard. These struggles of course trace back to the problems along the line of scrimmage, and with the front seven that Cincinnati has at their disposal it is unlikely that New England will find any refuge in Week 5. The team which most recently played New England beat them handily, and that team was beat handily by the team which Cincinnati most recently defeated. Though separated by two full weeks, the implications heavily favor the Bengals if the games play out in anyway similar to the prior contests. Considering how the visitors have an additional week of rest and the home team played on Monday night, the physical battle favors Cincinnati even more strongly than it would have otherwise, leading to even more tragic conclusions for the a Patriots team which continues to flounder as they search for an offensive identity.

Running Game Thoughts:
Tom Brady: 185 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Stevan Ridley: 45 rush yds
Shane Vereen: 30 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Julian Edelman: 65 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Bengals 24, Patriots 13 ^ Top

Seahawks at Redskins - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: Of all of the possible reasons to fear Seattle on the football field, their aerial attack certainly isn’t one of them, but they do boast one of the most efficient passing games in the league. With a top-five mark for completion percentage and a TD-INT ratio of six to one, the Seahawks are making the most of their league low in pass attempts. Only playing three games in four weeks does help keep negative numbers to a minimum, but even normalized to account for the bye week Seattle is methodical and conservative through the air while being creative and efficient at the same time. Led by QB Russell Wilson the Seahawks average 209 passing yards per game and those yards are spread surprisingly equally between six different players who average between 25.3 and 35.3 yards per game. Of the six touchdown passes thrown by Wilson only two have gone to wide receivers, with four being shared between three running backs. The passing offense is reliable and usually responsible when a critical play comes along, but in fantasy terms only Wilson and the running backs are consistent performers.

So far this season opposing quarterbacks have been efficient against Washington, averaging 237 yards per game and recording nine touchdowns compared to just two interceptions. The defense has recorded 11 total sacks, but ten of them came in one game against what is largely considered the most helpless team in the league (JAX). That means in three other games the Redskins have recorded a total of one sack. The lone bright spot for Washington has been LB Ryan Kerrigan, who has nearly half of the team’s sacks as well as forcing a fumble and defending a pass. Without much exaggeration, the rest of the front seven has combined to do approximately as much as he as individually, and when teams key on him the rest of the defense is frequently unable able to compensate for his loss. In their most recent contest, a home game, the Redskins secondary surrendered 300 yards and four touchdowns to a division rival (NYG). With important pieces missing for the year due to injury, Washington needs some of its young players and overshadowed veterans to step up and find a way to fill the shoes of their injured teammates.

Running Game Thoughts: The duties of an NFL ball carrier become significantly less taxing when running behind an impressive offensive line. For Seattle three different players average more than 28.5 rushing yards per game, including Wilson, WR Percy Harvin, and RB Marshawn Lynch. The trio has combined for four rushing touchdowns in three games, and their 87 total rushes exactly equals the number of passing attempts made by Wilson, giving the team amazing balance and making them ever more difficult to defend. The primary ball carrier is far and away Lynch with 60% of the team’s total carries, which he has turned into 78 rushing yards per game while also contributing another 27 through the air. In all, he is responsible for four the ten total touchdowns the Seahawks have scored this season, picking up scores thrice while rushing and once as a receiver. On the ground, Seattle has the third highest per game rushing average with 148 yards per contest, and their 5.1 yards per rushing attempt is also third best in the league. Coming out of the bye week the physical Seahawks front line will have had an opportunity to recover from any early season dings, and with Beast Mode lurking in the backfield opponents should be on notice that the line of scrimmage will be a dangerous place for the foreseeable future.

Slowing down the Seahawks rushing attack will take a titanic effort, and though the numbers suggest that Washington may be up to that task, their mounting injuries and recent game results lead toward a dramatically different conclusion. In their disastrous Week 4 loss to the Giants, the Redskins surrendered 154 rushing yards, with two different players gaining 55 and one more breaking 30 yards. All night only one run went for more than 12 yards, meaning the defense was repeatedly and systematically beaten down to a point where they could not effectively stop the ball carrier. All three running backs averaged between 3.9 and 4.4 yards on Thursday night, and after 36 combined attempts none of them looked tired while the defense consistently looked out of breath and overmatched. Both conventional wisdom and statistics show Seattle to be a better rushing team than the Redskins faced previously, and if this holds true the home crowd will quickly become discontent watching a well-rested Seahawks team continually gash the defense and dominate the line of scrimmage.

Running Game Thoughts:
Russell Wilson: 210 pass yds, 25 rush yds, 2 TDs
Marshawn Lynch: 75 rush yds, 20 rec yds, 2 TDs
Percy Harvin: 35 rec yds, 20 rush yds, 1 TD
Doug Baldwin: 30 rec yds
Jermaine Kearse: 25 rec yds
Ricardo Lockette: 10 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Recently the Redskins have uncovered the NFL-equivalent of the question related to which came first, the chicken or the egg. In games where the team passes more frequently the team performs more poorly. Without suggesting causation, the numbers say that when Washington throws the ball 62% of the time or more, the result is a loss. Furthermore, in the game where they threw the most passes the score was most unfavorably lopsided. Washington’s only victory this season came in the only game where they ran more times than they threw. From a four-game sample the statistics may be inappropriately skewed, but after a 1-3 start Washington should believe very little of their own instincts and instead rely on something other than what has gotten them to this point. Though he didn’t start either of the first two games, QB Kirk Cousins has approximately taken over where the currently-injured QB Robert Griffin III left off. His first game action came early in Week 2 against a weak opponent, but most recently Cousins is coming off a four interception night where he consistently stared down receivers, failed to locate the safety, and forced throws into bad areas. Reports suggested that even the defensive linemen could read his eyes and determine where the ball was going. He’s averaged nearly 300 passing yards per contest but has five interceptions to pair with his six touchdowns. While the weapons he has available are impressive, if he cannot do the fundamental aspects of his position correctly Cousins might as well be playing without receivers altogether. On the injury front, TE Jordan Reed (hamstring) was finally back at practice but both Reed and Niles Paul (concussion) are iffy for Monday night.

The problem with statistics is sometimes they conveniently mask the facts, and other times they too harshly portray an uncomfortable reality. Discovering the truth behind the numbers is key, as in the case with Seattle’s pass defense. After three games the team is averaging nearly 250 yards against through the air and has surrendered six touchdowns compared to recording just two interceptions. Lost however is the realization that two of their first three games were played against some of the best quarterbacks in the league who of course would inappropriately skew a small sample size. Do not be misled. Though the defense lost a number of impactful players through free agency, the core of the team remained largely intact and should still be considered the best defensive unit in the league. The Seahawks are extremely physical and despite the league’s emphasis on defensive interference and illegal use of hands they still find a way to manhandle receivers and disrupt the timing of the offense. With a Washington quarterback who is currently struggling with his timing and receivers who not known for their brute strength, matchups in the secondary will heavily favor the Legion of Boom.

Running Game Thoughts: As discussed previously, the Redskins are a better football team when they run the ball more frequently, so when the offense favors the passing game twice as often as the rushing attack it is no surprise that the team got thoroughly dismantled in Week 4. Even so, Washington is averaging 123 rushing yards per game and has scored six touchdowns on the ground in four contests. Of the 12 offensive touchdowns scored by the Redskins eight of them have gone to running backs. Leading the way is the star of the backfield Alfred Morris, who averages 79 rushing yards per game and leads the team in scores, big plays, and first down conversions. On a per carry basis Morris gains 4.5 yards per attempt, making him one of the twelve-best ball carriers in the league among those with more than 35 carries. For fantasy managers and Redskins fans alike, it is frustrating to see his success in the run game forsaken for an aspect of the offense, which has proven to be inconsistent at best. For years the offensive line has quietly been developing into one of the most underrated units in the NFL, especially with their skills as run blockers, and by trying to lead the offense with the passing attack Washington is unintentionally going away from their greatest area of strength.

Through four games Morris has seen his rushing total decrease from week to week. Barring a defensive lapse or an offensive over commitment to the running game it is likely that the Redskins running back will see that decreasing trend continue for at least one more contest thanks to the Seahawks defense. Seattle opponents average only 72.3 rushing yards per game as a team, and a miniscule 2.8 yards per attempt. In three games the Seahawks have given up only one rushing touchdown and have yet to yield a run longer than 16 yards. In addition to the passing defense being incredibly stout thanks to their impressive secondary, that same unit is excellent in run defense and delivers blows that even the toughest running backs wish they could shy away from. Lost in the fanfare, which revolves around the back four, the defensive line and linebackers are stellar in their own right. The same physical mentality for which the secondary is known also permeates the rest of the defensive front seven. In today’s finesse and precision-based NFL, a physical stalwart is able to wreak havoc on offenses that don’t have the fortitude to deliver a blow and control the game at the line of scrimmage. Unless Washington changes their course and decides to focus on the rushing game, the Seahawks are once again in line for another dominant performance in all aspects of their defense.

Running Game Thoughts:
Kirk Cousins: 195 pass yds, 2 INTs
Alfred Morris: 55 rush yds
Roy Helu: 10 rush yds
Pierre Garcon: 50 rec yds
DeSean Jackson: 35 rec yds
Logan Paulsen: 30 rec yds

Prediction: Seahawks 31, Redskins 6 ^ Top

Cardinals @ Broncos - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer is listed as questionable for the third straight week and has been self-diagnosing himself as “day-to-day” when asked by reporters. A nerve problem in his throwing shoulder has been the issue here and Palmer is still not throwing effectively, which could very well mean that we will see Drew Stanton behind center again for the undefeated Cardinals. Stanton has been decent in relief, throwing for two touchdowns and 244 yards in the team’s most recent game, a home victory over their division rival, the San Francisco 49ers. If Palmer is unable to go, the Cardinals should be in decent hands with Stanton, but the team is obviously hoping that their lead signal caller will be back in action for the first time since Week 1. One player who has struggled greatly in the Arizona passing game this season has been veteran receiver Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald currently sits third among his own team’s wide receivers in total fantasy points, behind Michael Floyd and 2014 third-round NFL draft pick John Brown. Fitzgerald has not performed with either Palmer or Stanton behind center, which leaves serious concerns as to whether or not he will be able to turn things around.

In Week 5, he will be up against a Denver Broncos defense that has held opposing wide receivers to the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game, including allowing just two total touchdowns to the position in three games. The Broncos have a solid pass rush that has been led by free agency acquisition DeMarcus Ware and two-time Pro Bowler Von Miller who will certainly make things tough on whichever quarterback plays. Michael Floyd is likely the team’s top target going forward which should make him likely the most consistent player in this group of receivers, but without knowing who will be throwing them the ball, this remains a shaky game to start any player in the Arizona passing attack.

Running Game Thoughts: An ongoing foot injury has helped opposing defenses keep Arizona running back Andre Ellington in check thus far this season as he has seen his yards per carry drop all the way from 5.5 in 2013 to 4.5 in 2014. With a full week off, Ellington is expected to play again this Sunday and should be the healthiest that he has been all season, which could lead to great things as he is still producing decent fantasy numbers even with the injury. The biggest thing keeping Ellington away from being a top producer so far has been his lack of touchdowns. The young playmaker has now scored just one touchdown since Week 10 of the 2013 regular season. In Week 5, he’ll be up a Denver Broncos defense that has not yet allowed an opposing group of running backs to hit the century mark, but has conceded a total of four touchdowns to the position in just their past two games against Seattle and Kansas City. With the Cardinals likely needing to pass the ball to stay in this game, expecting 20 carries out of Ellington is likely too much, but he could be the beneficiary of some check down passes which would be a nice bonus for those in PPR scoring formats. Ellington is a solid start this week and will be tough to sit given how many other teams are currently employing a running-back-by-committee philosophy.

Running Game Thoughts:
Carson Palmer: 245 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Andre Ellington: 50 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Michael Floyd: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Fitzgerald: 60 rec yds
John Brown: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Consistently elite, Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning got off to an excellent start to his fantasy season prior to the team’s Week 4 bye, throwing for a total of 814 yards and eight touchdowns with only one interception. He has continued to do what he has always done throughout his career by spreading the ball out to a talented group of pass catchers, including newcomer Emmanuel Sanders who currently sits at 25 receptions through his first three contests as a Bronco. While he hasn’t made a trip to the end zone this season, his contributions have certainly helped get the team in scoring position to get the ball to tight end Julius Thomas in the red zone, who has already scored five times in three games, including at least one touchdown in every game.

Thomas will once again have an incredible matchup on paper as he goes up against an Arizona Cardinals defense that allowed by far the most fantasy points in the entire league to opposing tight ends over the course of the 2013 NFL season. Thomas could realistically be the top-ranked tight end on fantasy rankings this week given his proven success and delicious matchup. Meanwhile top receiver Demaryius Thomas will likely be locked up with Arizona’s top cornerback, Patrick Peterson, who has admittedly struggled at times this season but remains one of the most physically gifted players in the game. On the bright side, Thomas does appear to be fully recovered from early-season nagging injuries that slowed him down. Look for him to get back to being an elite fantasy pass-catcher over the coming weeks. Finally, wide receiver Wes Welker made his 2014 debut in Week 3 after being suspended for the first two games of the season for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and immediately reminded fantasy owners of his PPR excellence by catching six passes for 60 yards despite not being involved much in the gameplan. While Welker may have slipped to fourth on the pecking order in Denver, he remains a solid start in PPR formats and is still capable of putting up consistently solid fantasy numbers.

Running Game Thoughts: It has been a highly disappointing start to the season for Denver Broncos running back Montee Ball who currently sits with just a 3.4 yards per carry average on the season. While one of those games did come against a particularly stout defense in Seattle, Ball’s general lack of production has to be concerning for fantasy owners who have now seen their perceived-to-be high-end RB2 produce more like an RB4 for the first three games of the season. Ball has remained on the field for most of Denver’s snaps despite his lack of production which means that the team still has confidence in him and there’s no reason to believe that his role is in jeopardy, but he will need to turn things around and start running with a little more grit if fantasy owners are going to be excited about putting them in their lineups. This matchup against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5 is an excellent opportunity for Ball to prove his worth by running hard and hopefully getting into the end zone. It won’t be easy, though, as the Cardinals have done an excellent job against opposing running backs thus far in 2014, having allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position on the year. While they have conceded two rushing touchdowns in their three games, this is not a particularly great matchup for Ball and his fantasy owners. While it will be tough to bench him given his ADP, Ball’s upside in this game really relies in his potential to sneak in with a goal line touchdown.

Running Game Thoughts:
Peyton Manning: 300 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Montee Ball: 50 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Emmanuel Sanders: 90 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 75 rec yds, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 55 rec yds
Julius Thomas: 50 rec yds, 2 TD

Prediction: Broncos 31, Cardinals 20 ^ Top

Jets @ Chargers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: One of the most controversial quarterback situations in the league has happened in New York involving second-year starter Geno Smith. Smith, who has admittedly shown signs of solid quarterback play on a number of occasions, has simply turned the ball over far too often for anyone to be comfortable with. In 20 career starts, Smith has thrown 26 interceptions with only 16 touchdowns. While he has also rushed for seven touchdowns during that time, it has been negated by his six fumbles lost. The writing seems to be on the wall for the Jets to treat this situation similarly to what the Bills have done with their own second-year project quarterback EJ Manuel who has now been benched for veteran Kyle Orton. The Jets have a potentially exciting backup quarterback in Michael Vick who did show signs that he still “has it” in the preseason. While the Jets will once again start Smith this Sunday, do not be surprised to see him relieved by Vick if the team falls behind again, as they cannot afford to start the season 1-4. The only player in this passing game who has shown much fantasy consistency thus far in 2014 has been former Denver Bronco Eric Decker who leads the team with 204 yards receiving and has scored two touchdowns despite playing on an injured hamstring. The hamstring injury has kept Decker limited in practice this week and the team remains optimistic that he will play this Sunday, but if he is unable to suit up, this New York offense could be in serious trouble.

Whoever is passing the ball for the Jets should be in for a decent matchup, however, as the Chargers have not looked particularly good in their secondary thus far. While it’s true that they’ve only conceded a modest six passing touchdowns through four games, it’s worth noting that they’ve been up against the Seahawks, Bills and Jaguars over their past three contests; not exactly the league’s most high-powered offenses. Tight end Jace Amaro could factor into this game a bit for those who are in deep leagues looking for an upside option at the position this week. The Chargers have allowed back-to-back games of 70-plus yards to opposing tight ends and those game against the Bills and Jaguars who do not have superstars at the position.

Running Game Thoughts: The conundrum at quarterback has not done any favors for the Jets running game as halfbacks Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson have consistently faced stacked boxes as defenses dare the team to pass the ball. Ivory and Johnson have roughly split touches this season with Ivory taking the slight edge through four games, largely due to a 19-to-8 differential in his favor this past week against Detroit. While Johnson did break loose on a long touchdown run against the Lions, it has been Ivory who has been the more consistent and generally more productive back between the two. This could spell rough times ahead for Johnson who had just five carries for nine yards prior to his 35-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. The team seems to be favoring Ivory which, from a fantasy standpoint, could be an improvement on the current situation which has left fantasy owners scratching their heads on a week to week basis. If the Jets do decide to start giving Ivory the better end of a 60-40 or even 70-30 split, look for him to take that opportunity and run with it.

Unfortunately this week’s matchup isn’t particularly great for either Ivory or Johnson, neither of whom are known for catching the ball out of the backfield. While San Diego has only allowed an average of 61 yards rushing per game and has only allowed one total rushing touchdown on the year, they have been abused by opposing running backs in the passing game to the tune of 279 total yards receiving and four touchdowns through four contests.

Running Game Thoughts:
Geno Smith: 220, 1 TD, 2 INT, 20 rush yds
Chris Ivory: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Chris Johnson: 35 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Eric Decker: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Kerley: 40 rec yds
Jace Amaro: 50 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: One of the hottest players in the league and potentially the leading candidate for NFL MVP through the first quarter of the season, San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is proving that his return to glory in 2013 was not just a product of Ken Whisenhunt’s offense. Rivers has continued to thrive in 2014, including throwing for nine touchdowns and only one interception while throwing for nearly 290 yards per game to start the season. Much of this can be credited to wide receiver Eddie Royal who has now had back-to-back games with two touchdowns, including a 105-yard performance against the Jaguars in Week 4. Meanwhile second-year receiver Keenan Allen had started the season slow with only 12 catches for 109 yards in his first three games, but had an excellent bounce-back performance in Week 4 when he led the team with 10 receptions for 135 yards. He still hasn’t found his way into the end zone in 2014, but his 29 targets are tied with Royal for the most on the team and it figures to only be a matter of time before that translates into some fantasy production. One player who will be looking to follow up a nice game by Allen with a bounce-back performance of his own will be tight end Antonio Gates. Gates had a monster performance in Week 2 where he caught seven passes for 95 yards and three touchdowns, but has been largely nonexistent in each of the past two games, catching just four passes for 38 yards and no scores.

In Week 5, he’ll have a good matchup against a Jets defense that has been weak against opposing tight ends of late. In their past two games against the Bears and Lions, the Jets have conceded three touchdowns to the position. The Jets rank second-worst in the NFL in terms of total points allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season. After seeing what Philip Rivers did against the Jaguars this past week - the only team that has allowed more points to QB’s than the Jets - it’s safe to say that Rivers should be in just about every fantasy lineup this week in what could be another excellent game for him.

Running Game Thoughts: An excellent matchup against the league’s worst run defense had fantasy owners of Donald Brown licking their chops heading into Week 4. All of the pieces were in place: Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead both on byes, a likely Chargers blowout victory, good weather...but even with all of those things being true, Brown was still a major disappointment to fantasy owners. The former first round NFL draft pick by the Colts was held to just 19 yards on 10 carries. While he did add 35 yards receiving, Brown’s general lack of fantasy output was a major blow to those who sat more skilled players in favor of Brown and his made-to-order matchup against the Jaguars. Following that dreadful performance, Brown is now averaging an embarrassing 2.0 yards per carry and despite the team missing both of their top two backs, Brown may still not have a firm hold on the touches in the San Diego backfield. Rookie Branden Oliver stepped in and carried the ball nine times in Week 4 while adding an additional 33 yards of his own in the receiving game.

While Oliver himself is not at the point where he should be started or even rostered in most leagues, his presence in the backfield does more to hamper what is already a bad fantasy outlook for Brown who will be up against the Jets and their No. 1 ranked fantasy defense against opposing running backs. The Jets have held opposing teams to an average of just 46 rushing yards per game and are yet to allow a single touchdown to the position this season. There will be those who simply do not have better options, but Brown is at best a low-end FLEX this week in standard 12-team leagues.

Running Game Thoughts:
Philip Rivers: 280 pass yds, 3 TD
Donald Brown: 35 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Branden Oliver: 20 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Keenan Allen: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Eddie Royal: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Malcom Floyd: 35 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Chargers 24, Jets 14 ^ Top

Chiefs @ 49ers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: A week after out-dueling Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, Alex Smith’s confidence may never be higher as he heads into his Week 5 matchup against his former team, the San Francisco 49ers. Smith has been on a hot streak, throwing for three touchdowns in each of his past two games while avoiding any interceptions. While Smith’s biggest yardage output of the year remains just 255 yards in a Week 2 loss to the Broncos, his fantasy production has actually been solid as he currently sits as the No. 12 quarterback in standard scoring formats. Much of this production has come due to Smith’s ability to find open receivers underneath the defense’s coverage, which is why tight end Travis Kelce has been such a hot acquisition. Kelce, who found his way into the end zone in Week 3, followed it up with another touchdown in Week 4 as he caught a total of eight passes for 93 yards in the blowout victory over New England. What’s astonishing is that not a single one of Alex Smith’s seven touchdown passes has gone to a wide receiver. Instead, four have gone to running backs and three to tight ends. This has meant that, for the most part, the Kansas City wide receiver group has been essentially fantasy irrelevant for the second straight season. If there’s any reason to be optimistic for a receiver in this offense, though, it’s that Dwayne Bowe is coming off of his best game of the season thus far: a five catch, 81-yard game; his biggest yardage output in over two full seasons.

Not only that, but the Chiefs and Smith may opt to pass the ball at a higher-than-normal rate this week in order for Smith to have the opportunity to prove to his former coach, Jim Harbaugh, that he made the wrong decision by benching him during an injury for the younger, more athletic Colin Kaepernick. The 49ers have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far this season, including a three-touchdown game to an injured Brandon Marshall back in Week 2. If the Chiefs hope to win this game, they will likely need to be able to do more than just check the ball down to their tight ends and running backs, so look for Smith to target Bowe at a higher-than-usual rate in this contest.

Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles was back in full effect in Week 4 as he played in his first full game since his dreadful Week 1 performance against the Titans. Charles, who had just two total fantasy points leading into Monday night’s game, reminded everyone why he was a consensus top three overall fantasy draft pick this off-season as he rushed for 92 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries while adding an additional 16 yards on three catches for two more touchdowns. It was a monster day for Charles, whom many fantasy owners had unfortunately benched due to the unknown nature of his injury heading into Monday. Charles’ monster day could have been even larger if the Chiefs weren’t so far ahead of the Patriots, as the team opted to give backup Knile Davis 16 carries of his own, which he took for 107 yards; his third straight highly productive fantasy day. Davis, who is unlikely to see such a big share of the touches in this week’s game against the 49ers, has now firmly entrenched himself as the most important “handcuff” running back in all of fantasy football and still could have the opportunity to produce some decent fantasy games of his own from time to time; even if Charles is healthy.

Unfortunately for this impressive duo, they will be up against a San Francisco 49ers run defense that has been extraordinary at stopping the run thus far in 2014. Only DeMarco Murray has even had a respectable fantasy day against the 49ers, while San Francisco has held both LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte to some of their worst fantasy performances in recent history. While Charles is still a must-start just given his prominent role in the Kansas City offense, a repeat of his Week 4 performance is unlikely in this contest.

Running Game Thoughts:
Alex Smith: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 55 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds
Knile Davis: 30 rush yds
Dwayne Bowe: 60 rec yds
Travis Kelce: 50 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: A 2-2 start is certainly not what the 49ers had in mind going into the 2014 season, but that’s where they currently stand, and it’s largely in part to some less-than-stellar play from quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick, who has not yet thrown for 250 yards in a single game this season, has largely been without his favorite target, tight end Vernon Davis, who has been slowed with a string of injuries. That lack of a comfortable target over the middle has been noticeable for Kaepernick and his fantasy numbers. With Davis not expected to play this week, Kaepernick’s fantasy numbers could be mediocre yet again. The Chiefs have allowed eight touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this year, but they have held every opposing QB - including Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Tony Romo - to fewer than 270 yards through the air. The one thing that is always unpredictable and hard to defend with Kaepernick is his ability to run the ball. He seems to be more willing to take off and run for first downs as he has now rushed for at least 54 yards in each of his past three games. If he can do that, even if he only throws for around 200 yards, he could be serviceable as a low-end QB1 this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore was back to being a major focal point of the San Francisco offense in Week 4, carrying the 49ers to a nice victory over the Eagles in a game where Kaepernick was less-than-impressive. The veteran tailback notched his first 100-yard rushing day of the season and his first since Week 14 of the 2013 season. While Gore came out of the game a little bit banged up, he has practiced fully late in the week and should be ready to play without much concern for fantasy owners. He’ll be going up against a Kansas City run defense that has allowed a pathetic 5.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs, which could mean a nice day for Gore if the team does opt to grind ball and force the Chiefs to score on a higher percentage of their drives. While the writing does seem to be on the wall for rookie Carlos Hyde to eventually get a more significant role in this offense, it might not come for another handful of weeks or until Gore begins to look significantly slower than he does right now. This isn’t the time to test Hyde in your lineup, while Gore remains a solid RB2/Flex option against Kansas City.

Running Game Thoughts:
Colin Kaepernick: 205 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 35 rush yds
Frank Gore: 60 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Carlos Hyde: 25 rush yds
Michael Crabtree: 70 rec yds
Anquan Boldin: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve Johnson: 30 rec yds

Prediction: 49ers 20, Chiefs 17 ^ Top