Saints
at Panthers - (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: There is
no doubt that Drew Brees remains an upper-echelon fantasy quarterback
and his yardage total is borderline obscene, but he hadn’t
thrown three touchdown passes in a game this season until last
week against the Packers. His top target remains Jimmy Graham,
who is still mending his shoulder. Graham had five receptions
for 59 yards and a score last week against Seattle, but the short
week doesn’t do him any favors. Nonetheless, he has to be
a starter for fantasy owners, who should also consider Marques
Colston and Brandin Cooks against a soft Panthers pass defense.
The Carolina pass defense is nowhere near what it was last season,
currently ranking 18th against the pass while allowing opponents
to complete nearly 70 percent of their passes and having given
up more touchdown throws than all but three other teams. The Panthers
held Russell Wilson to 199 yards and one score last week. On the
season, however, Carolina has allowed the ninth-most FPts/G in
the league to quarterbacks and the sixth-most FPts/G to wide receivers.
Carolina has been better against tight ends, ranking tied for
fifth-fewest FPts/G given up to players at that position, but
the Panthers did allow the game-winning TD to a tight end last
week. That’s without facing a player near the caliber of
Graham.
Running Game Thoughts: With Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas out
last week against the Packers, former Heisman winner Mark Ingram
took the ball and ran with it. He did so 24 times to be exact
and amassed 172 yards and one score. With Robinson and Thomas
still hurting, Ingram should be in store for another bounty of
carries this week against Carolina. He’s a clear starter
for fantasy owners.
A feared rush defense last season, the Panthers come into this
game ranked 28th in the league against the run. Just two teams
have yielded more rushing scores than Carolina, while no team
in the league is allowing a higher YPC average (5.2). Carolina
held Marshawn Lynch to only 62 yards on the ground and no scores
last week, but are nonetheless tied for second-most FPts/G allowed
to running backs this year, with three different backs having
run for at least 115 yards against them.
Projections:
Drew Brees: 310 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Mark Ingram: 85 rush yds, 1 TD
Travaris Cadet: 15 rush yds, 40 rec yds
Marques Colston: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandin Cooks: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Kenny Stills: 40 rec yds
Jimmy Graham: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing Game Thoughts: Cam Newton
has been anything but dynamic for his fantasy owners this season.
After missing the first game of the year, he came back strong
but over his last four games has five touchdown throws but four
interceptions. Yet Newton does have a good matchup this week,
and so does rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin, who had 94 receiving yards
last week. Although he didn’t snare a touchdown, Benjamin
has more games with a touchdown catch this season than without
one. Greg Olsen had his least productive game of the year last
week and this week, he faces a tough matchup against the Saints.
Considering how imperative Olsen is to Carolina’s pass offense,
he is a safe play against New Orleans.
The Saints are 31st in the NFL in pass defense, but are tied for
ninth-fewest passing scores allowed so far this season. They’ve
allowed the sixth-most FPts/G in the league to quarterbacks for
the year. Aaron Rodgers accumulated 418 passing yards last week,
marking the second time this season New Orleans has allowed a
quarterback to throw for over 400 yards. Those quarterbacks are
throwing to someone, but it’s not the tight ends, as the
Saints have allowed the third-fewest FPts/G and second-fewest
receiving yards in the league to tight ends. On the other side
of that, New Orleans has surrendered the fourth-most FPts/G to
wide receivers, with one wide receiver accumulating at least 125
yards against the Saints in each of the team’s last three
contests.
Running Game Thoughts: The jumble that is the Panthers’
running game gets more crowded this week with the news that DeAngelo
Williams will return from an ankle injury and start for the team
at running back. Carolina has four players with at least 25 rushing
attempts for the season, including Newton, and it’s difficult
to know on a week-to-week basis who will be the team’s primary
runner. It’s best to leave the situation alone unless the
matchup is too good to ignore, but the Saints don’t qualify
in that regard.
New Orleans has the 10th-ranked run defense in the league and
is 12th in opponents YPC average, but are also tied for 20th in
rushing scores allowed. Combine the touchdowns allowed with the
Saints’ fifth-most receiving yards in the league to running
backs and you have a team that has allowed the 12th-most FPts/G
in the NFL to players at that position.
Projections:
Cam Newton: 240 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 40 rush yds, 1 TD
DeAngelo Williams: 45 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Jonathan Stewart: 30 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Kelvin Benjamin: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery: 40 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Saints 28, Panthers 21 ^ Top
Eagles at Texans
- (Smith)
Passing Game Thoughts: Eagles QB
Nick Foles has not been the player that many fantasy owners envisioned
in his second year as the team’s starter. His 411 passing
yards last week against Arizona snapped a three-game streak in
which he failed to reach 250 yards through the air, though Foles
still has just a single game this year with more than two TD passes.
Both of his scoring passes against the Cardinals went to Jeremy
Maclin, who is currently among the top-10 in fantasy points among
wide receivers and a clear WR1 this week against the Texans.
Houston has the 28th-ranked pass defense in the league, and is
tied with the Eagles for 26th in TD throws surrendered. The Texans
have allowed multiple scoring passes in each of their last six
games and have given up the 11th-most FPts/G to quarterbacks.
While decent against TEs, just five teams have permitted more
FPts/G to wide receivers than Houston, with their most obvious
transgression being the 223 yards they gave up to T.Y. Hilton
during a Week 6 Thursday night game.
Running Game Thoughts: It looks as if Darren Sproles will be returning
to action this week, bringing his capabilities as a receiver and
6.6 YPC average with him. He’s always an option as a flex
play, just as LeSean McCoy should continue to be a starter despite
his underwhelming fantasy numbers. McCoy has run for at least
80 yards in each of his last three contests, but still has only
one TD this season. It’s hard to believe he’ll maintain
a two-TD pace for the season, so it’s realistic for fantasy
owners to expect more out of McCoy in the year’s second
half, starting against Houston.
The Texans are 12th in the NFL in run defense, T-7th in rushing
scores ceded, and rank 15th in YPC allowed. They rank in the middle
of the league – 17th – in FPts/G allowed to running
backs, but have shown to be more vulnerable at times than that
number might indicate. Houston gave up 176 rushing yards to Rashad
Jennings, 136 to DeMarco Murray, and though they held Le’Veon
Bell to 57 yards on the ground, he also managed 88 receiving yards
and a TD.
Projections:
Nick
Foles: 290 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
LeSean
McCoy: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Darren
Sproles: 25 rush yds, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy
Maclin: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Riley
Cooper: 50 rec yds
Jordan
Matthews: 35 rec yds
Zach
Ertz: 45 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: In terms of fantasy scoring, Ryan Fitzpatrick
is probably a lot closer to his opponent his week, Nick Foles,
than most fantasy owners may realize. Make no mistake, Houston
is a running team, but Fitzpatrick offers a nice alternative this
week for those needing a QB due to injury or bye. He has a couple
of solid targets to throw to, and the emerging DeAndre Hopkins
is becoming the team’s biggest playmaker through the air,
having amassed back-to-back games with 95+ yards. Though he hasn’t
scored since Week 4, Hopkins does have two more TDs than Andre
Johnson, but Johnson could very easily close that gap this week
against Philly.
As mentioned above, the Eagles are tied with the Texans for 26th
in the NFL in TD passes given up, which also happens to be Philly’s
ranking in pass defense so far this year. And while they’ve
allowed the 4th-fewest FPts/G to TEs, the Eagles have been far
more generous to quarterbacks and wide receivers. They’ve
allowed the 3rd-most FPts/G to quarterbacks, and it’s not
as if they have faced nothing but elite signal callers week after
week. For example, Philly surrendered 266 yards and a pair of
scores to Chad Henne, 427 yards and three TDs to Kirk Cousins,
and 375 yards and three scores to Austin Davis. The Eagles have
also given up the 3rd-most FPts/G in the league to wide receivers,
and for an example of why, just look to last week, when the Arizona
combo of Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown amassed a total of 279
yards and two TDs.
Running Game Thoughts: DeMarco Murray has garnered the majority
of the attention among running backs, and deservedly so considering
he already has over 1,000 yards on the ground. But Arian Foster
should be getting some props as well. He has 766 rushing yards
and 166 receiving yards with a total of nine TDs this season,
and only Murray has more fantasy points. Foster has at least 100
rushing yards in all but one of his games this season, and it
would be a mild surprise if he didn’t continue that streak
against the Eagles.
Though Philadelphia is 21st in the league in rush defense, they
are T-2nd-fewest rushing scores surrendered and are 13th in YPC
allowed. They are 14th in FPts/G given up to running backs, and
have actually allowed more receiving scores to backs than rushing
scores. The Eagles have permitted just one RB to gain at least
80 yards against them, but five different backs have picked up
at least 70.
Projections:
Ryan
Fitzpatrick: 260 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Arian
Foster: 115 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
DeAndre
Hopkins: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre
Johnson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Garrett
Graham: 35 rec yds
Prediction: Eagles 27, Texans 24 ^ Top
Cardinals at Cowboys
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: With his
shoulder injury now clearly behind him, QB Carson Palmer has made
three consecutive starts after missing three games and sitting
out during the bye week. As a starter, Palmer has led the Cardinals
to four wins and no losses, throwing eight touchdowns and only
one interception during that time. He’s averaging 277 passing
yards per game with a 61% completion rate, which would rank him
in the top eight for the former and bottom ten of latter. With
his ability to protect the ball, Palmer not completing a high
percentage of his passes is compensated for by the yardage he
records, and his mark of 7.4 yards per attempt is approximately
average for the league. The return of Palmer has led to a reinvigoration
for WR Larry Fitzgerald, who has scored in two of the three most
recent games while averaging 93 yards during that span. In addition
to the veteran, WR Michael Floyd and rookie WR John Brown have
complemented the passing attack, with the pair combining for at
least 88 yards and one score in each of the games since Palmer
returned from injury. Regardless of who has been under center,
the Arizona offensive line has done well protecting their quarterback,
surrendering only 11 sacks through seven games, the eighth fewest
allowed in the league.
The challenge presented by Palmer is one that Dallas hasn’t
truly faced this year. The combination of impressive yardage and
ball security from the quarterback, along with speed and reliability
from the receivers, has been nearly unstoppable for Arizona. The
Cowboys will have an opportunity to do something which no other
team has in four attempts, find a way to beat the Cardinals with
Palmer as the signal caller. Making the situation even more difficult
is another injury in the back seven, this time with LB Justin
Durant (biceps) being placed on Injured Reserve, and further exacerbating
the lack of depth which Dallas has at that position. While the
“next man up” philosophy sounds great during a press
conference, eventually the talent level is diminished enough to
greatly affect the team and what they’re trying to do. Since
the Cowboys have been unable to generate reliable pressure with
a four man rush they’ve needed to get their linebackers
involved with blitz packages, and as the talent at that position
is slowly deteriorated due to injuries, it bring additional struggles
in getting to the quarterback. So far Dallas has been able to
hold steady, allowing just 11 touchdowns along with forcing eight
interceptions, but when the defense is finally spread too thin
the flood gates will open and the passing attack will be able
to take full advantage of the Cowboys lack of depth.
Running Game Thoughts: Although he’s been battling an injury
for most of the season, RB Andre Ellington (foot) is once again
expected to start for Arizona in Week 9. He’s been the No.
1 back whenever he’s available, and is the only Cardinals
ball carrier with more than 65 rushing yards. The ground game
isn’t particular stellar, ranking as the fifth worst with
89 yards per game, but the vast majority of those yards belong
to Ellington. As a buoy for his fantasy value, Ellington is also
used out of the backfield as a receiver, where his speed has already
led to an 81-yard touchdown reception despite dealing with discomfort
in his foot. The young running back actually has the second most
receptions, and is tied for the second most targets, for all Arizona
pass catchers. Between suspensions and inexperience nearly all
backfield duties have fallen to Ellington, and if his foot ever
fully heals he’ll only continue to get better and provide
a better balance to the Cardinals offense.
In an unexpected Week 8 home loss Dallas surrendered 123 rushing
yards and two touchdowns, making it only the third time all season
to give up more than 120 yards and just the second time to yield
more than one rushing touchdown. Both games went to overtime and
were decided by a field goal. While the Cardinals don’t
figure to have a ground game, which can match those numbers, the
best way to challenge the Cowboys is by establishing the rushing
attack early and wearing out the defense which lacks depth. The
visiting team has relied much more on the pass than the run, but
a better balance would put additional pressure on Dallas to come
up with stops in both aspects of the game. The Cowboys are currently
surrendering 4.8 yards per carry, the fourth worst mark in the
league, and have given up six rushing touchdowns in eight contests
without recovering a fumble from a running back. Of the teams
that have not had a bye week yet, only three have faced fewer
rushing attempts than Dallas, which largely explains why they
only concede 115 rushing yards per game. If the Cardinals are
committed to giving Ellington as many touches as he can handle
he may be in line for a near-career day, but chances are they’re
going to trust Palmer more and look to find success through the
air.
Projections:
Carson Palmer: 265 pass yds, 2 TDs
Andre Ellington: 60 rush yds, 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Larry Fitzgerald: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Floyd: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
John Brown: 55 rec yds
John Carlson: 25 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: To date the Cowboys have been unsurprisingly
noncommittal about the status of QB Tony Romo (back) and his availability
for this weekend. Coach Jason Garrett said that if it’s
a pain tolerance issue then Romo will almost certainly play, but
if the newest back injury affects his ability to lead the offense
then it may keep him out of the contest. Thankfully they have
the early kickoff time, so with the quarterback expected to be
a game time decision, at least fantasy managers can plan appropriately
and swap signal callers before the game starts. If Romo is unable
to play, QB Brandon Weeden would get the start, and after leading
the Cowboys to overtime by erasing a ten-point deficit, Dallas
may want to consider rolling the dice with the backup and giving
their starter a week of rest. With a bye in Week 11, holding Romo
out for two weeks would give him three weeks to heal, and with
playoff aspirations growing more every day the best move for the
long term may be a longer rest for their franchise quarterback.
Regardless of who is under center, Dallas pass catchers are eager
to get to Sunday and continue their recent tear of solid performances.
Star WR Dez Bryant was held in check last week but found the endzone
and salvaged his fantasy day; he averages 77 yards per game and
has five scores in eight contests. Alongside him is WR Terrance
Williams, who has 70 yards or a score in all but one game this
season, as well as TE Jason Witten. The veteran has caught a touchdown
pass in two of the last three games and most recently set a new
season-high mark for receiving yards.
With the foresight it took to draft offensive linemen in the
first round of three of the last four drafts it’s reasonable
to expect that Dallas is already preparing for the playoffs and
thus will look to protect their $108 million investment, meaning
that Weeden may be under center for the next game or two. With
only minutes of real-game experience since joining the Cowboys,
Weeden has led two offensive drives, both of which resulted in
points, including a touchdown pass to tie the game in Week 8 and
force overtime. Despite both playing at Oklahoma State several
years ago, Weeden and Bryant have yet to connect on the field,
and the Cardinals defense will seek to have that continue. The
proposition is unlikely though, as Arizona is the only team in
the league which gives up more than 300 passing yards per game,
and has conceded 12 touchdowns in seven contests. They are however
one of the best at forcing takeaways, as one of only four teams
with double digit interceptions. There is only one team in the
league who has recorded fewer sacks, so if the Cardinals aren’t
taking the ball out of the air there’s little reason to
fear their passing defense. As long as Dallas protects the ball
they should find success in throwing against the Arizona secondary.
Running Game Thoughts: Few superlatives can accurately convey
the season that RB DeMarco Murray has put together so far. In
the most recent game Murray was even more efficient than he’s
already been, thanks in large part to the offensive line dominating
the line of scrimmage. He set season highs for yards before contact
and yards gained between the tackles, and though it is his name
that will go into the record books, it is the five behemoths in
front of him that deserve the credit. Murray has received 79%
of Cowboys carries this season and has recorded 82% of their rushing
yards along with all seven of the rushing touchdowns that have
been scored. Barring the eternal caveat, injuries, there seems
to be nothing nor anyone capable of slowing down the star of the
Dallas backfield. Week 8 was the first time all year that Murray
was given fewer than 22 carries, but he had his third best rushing
total of the season by averaging 7.4 yards per carry. The restraint
exhibited by the Cowboys in reducing his workload may become more
common, but as long as the O-line continues to do what they do
best, Murray seems to be a lock for fantasy MVP and a must-start
as long as Dallas isn’t on bye.
Even if the Cardinals defense was literally a brick wall it would
be hard to suggest that Murray wouldn’t eclipse 100 yards
for the ninth straight game, and seeing how Arizona surrenders
less than 78 rushing yards per game perhaps the brick wall comparison
isn’t too far off. In their most recent matchup the Cardinals
surrendered 110 rushing yards while allowing 4.2 per carry, though
they gave up not gains of greater than 13 yards nor any touchdowns.
In the lone loss this season, Arizona yielded 92 rushing yards
and a touchdown. Teams who can run against the Cardinals have
a chance to beat them, and when it is Murray who is doing the
running that chance of victory looks even greater. On the season
Arizona has allowed just 3.3 yards per carry and has not allowed
more than 20 yards to be gained on a single rush; something has
to give, either the strong defense or the dominant offensive line,
and recent history suggest that Dallas won’t be the first
to blink.
Projections:
Brandon Weeden: 250 pass yds, 2 TDs
DeMarco Murray: 105 rush yds, 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Dez Bryant: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Terrance Williams: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 50 rec yds
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Cardinals 24 ^ Top
Chargers at Dolphins
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: For a quarterback
that has led a personal and franchise resurgence in recent years,
QB Philip Rivers enters Week 9 on extra rest thanks to a Thursday
night game previously, hoping to once again find a way to get
his team back on the winning track. In two consecutive losses
Rivers has recorded two of his three lowest passing totals of
the season, and he’s thrown more interceptions in a five
day span than he did for the entirety of the previous six games.
The explosiveness has also been lacking from the offense, with
no passing play longer than 31 yards, whereas the previous four
contests all had at least one completion of at least 44 yards.
One of the issues facing San Diego is that a true number one receiver
has yet to emerge. Four different players have recorded at least
370 receiving yards, but none have more than 470. Among those
four there are 16 total receiving touchdowns, but the two yardage
leaders have only four scores between them. In the back-to-back
losses, yards leader WR Malcom Floyd hasn’t broken 60 yards
and WR Eddie Royal hasn’t even hit 30. The lone bright spot
may be WR Keenan Allen, who prior to Week 8 had not found the
endzone and had surpassed 60 yards only once; most recently he
scored and gained73 yards, making it his best fantasy game of
the season. Of the top four, only TE Antonio Gates remains, with
three scores and 115 yards during the past two weeks, which is
approximately representative of his season thus far. In the redzone
Gates becomes a nearly unstoppable target, but in the middle of
the field the other three receivers need to step up in order to
give Sand Diego a chance to get back into the win column.
About the only thing working in the Chargers favor is that daylight
savings time comes to an end this weekend, giving the west coast
team one extra hour to allow their bodies to adjust to playing
in the Eastern Time Zone. Cross-country travel has been unkind
to San Diego throughout the history of this series, with the Bolts
failing to win in Miami since David Letterman became the host
of the Tonight Show. In addition to jet lag and 32 years of history,
the Chargers will be up against the third stingiest passing defense
in the league. The Dolphins surrender just 212 yards per game,
allow opposing quarterbacks to complete less than 60% of their
passes, and have the lowest per attempt average in the league
at 6.1 yards. Most recently Miami returned two interceptions for
touchdowns, actually representing more than half of the team’s
points in Week 8 if extra points are included with those defensive
scores. Without dramatic improvement from the offense or an epic
collapse from the defense, San Diego faces their third loss in
as many weeks and will head into their bye searching for answers
and scrambling to keep pace with their division leader if they
hope to make the playoffs again this year.
Running Game Thoughts: Since earning the start four weeks ago
rookie RB Branden Oliver has seen his rushing yardage decrease
in successive weeks, and that decline in production has directly
correlated with the declining success of the team. He burst onto
the scene and led the team to a shutout victory. That was followed
by a close win over a lesser opponent, a close loss to a division
opponent, and then a two-touchdown defeat to another divisional
foe. The key for San Diego seems to be feeding Oliver the ball
and giving him as many opportunities as possible to have an impact
on the game. With most of the remainder of the backfield either
out for the year or yet to return from injury, the rookie is making
the most of his time as the Chargers leading ball carrier, and
contributing through the air in a way that may help the team consolidate
their stable of running backs. Inconsistencies from the offensive
line and the passing attack have led to troubles in the running
game, as evidenced by their 86-yard per game average, the third
worst in the league. Though the team undoubtedly doesn’t
want to give too much to the young ball carrier too soon, his
compact size and impressive strength are causing problems for
defenders and are forcing San Diego to continue to involve him
in all aspects of the offense.
Though not as imposing as their pass defense, the Miami run stoppers
have been appropriately adequate so far this season, allowing
111 rushing yards per game and ranking comfortably in the middle
of the league in that respect. Through seven games the Dolphins
have surrendered just four rushing touchdowns, but just one of
those has come in the three weeks since their bye. Looking ahead
to Week 9, their opponents have struggled through the air but
have found reasonable success behind their rookie ball carrier,
so Miami can expect the Chargers to shy away from the pass in
order to focus more on the ground game. As long as the score stays
close Rivers won’t be forced to throw, thus protecting the
offense from some of their recent inconsistencies. Assuming this
holds true, the Dolphins in turn can allow their talented secondary
to lock onto a receiver and bring extra men into the box to stuff
the run. The matchup along the line of scrimmage with respect
to the rushing attack will largely determine the outcome of the
game, so the less mediocre Miami can perform the better of the
team will be.
Projections:
Philip Rivers: 200 pass yds, 1 TD
Branden Oliver: 75 rush yds, 20 rec yds, 1 TD
Malcom Floyd: 50 rec yds
Keenan Allen: 40 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: For Miami the first eight weeks of the season
have been incredibly up and down, with three losses, four wins,
and no more than two of either in a row at any point. They’ve
won on the road, lost at home, and done the reverse of both as
well. On offense, the one consistent seems to be WR Mike Wallace,
who has five of the team’s 11 receiving touchdowns including
three in the last four games. He has recorded at least 35 yards
in every game this season while averaging nearly 60 through seven
contests. No other receiver has more than one touchdown nor has
recorded 260 or more yards on the season. Though QB Ryan Tannehill
is the one under center, the Dolphins tend to perform better the
less the ball is in his hands. In contests where he attempts more
than 32 passes the Dolphins are 0-2, but when he throws 32 times
or fewer the team is 4-1, and even in that loss it took two Tannehill
interceptions and a last second touchdown from a former MVP to
cost Miami the win. The strength of the team is their defense,
followed by their running game, so controlling the clock and avoiding
turnovers has been the most advantageous offensive strategy, rather
than throwing frequently and trying to figure out whatever it
is that has kept Tannehill and Wallace from finally getting on
the same page on deep passing routes.
If recent results are any indication, Tannehill may actually
be more valuable as a runner than as a passer; in each of the
last three games he has run for at least 48 yards. Since the Chargers
are the sixth best pass defense in the league, averaging fewer
than 220 yards against per contest, Miami may be well served making
a further effort to avoid throwing the ball. In the redzone though
that may need to change, with San Diego allowing eight touchdown
passes in the last three games while forcing just one interception.
Both the offensive and defensive passing units rank approximately
18th with respect to sacks, so the Dolphins shouldn’t be
particularly concerned with pressure getting to their quarterback
when it is right to throw, but in the same respect they also won’t
be particularly capable of slowing down whatever pass rush that
San Diego brings. This stalemate of mediocrity sets the stage
for a particularly uninspiring aerial attack on Sunday, with the
Chargers having a slight personnel advantage, but lacking a recent
track record of using that advantage to secure a victory for the
team.
Running Game Thoughts: Even without the rushing contributions
from Tannehill the Dolphins would still average 110 rushing yards
per game, which would still make them better than half of the
league. As it is they rank sixth, averaging 138 yards per contest,
a mark which they’ve matched or exceeded in back-to-back
weeks. Now with the backfield almost all to himself, RB Lamar
Miller is the undisputed lead ball carrier in Miami, recording
83 total yards or more in each of the last three contests as well
as finding the endzone twice during that time. For the season
Miller is averaging nearly five yards per carry, so the only limit
to his production seems to be the number of opportunities he is
given. When it isn’t Miller or Tannehill carrying the ball,
RB Daniel Thomas is the primary backup, but as he averages 23
yards per game, hasn’t scored this season, and has just
seven catches out of the backfield, his only fantasy value is
as a desperate handcuff unless the Dolphins suffer another injury
to a running back.
On paper the Chargers seem to have a decent run defense, but
of late they’ve allowed three consecutive opponents to rush
for 114, 154, and 139 yards, respectively. The leading rusher
from each of those teams gained at least 80 yards in those contests,
and three rushing scores were surrendered during that time. Even
figuring in the early games this season, San Diego has only the
14th best run defense with respect to yardage, and the tenth most
permissive on a per carry basis. A number of factors have contributed
to their recent struggles and the back-to-back losses, but the
inability to stop the run has been one of the biggest. Provided
that Miami can rush with any success, this plays directly into
their game plan of utilizing Miller and Thomas on the ground while
simplifying things for Tannehill in the passing game. Between
the carries from the two running backs and the improvisations
from the quarterback, San Diego is going to have their hands full
trying to hold back the Miami ground game.
Projections:
Ryan Tannehill: 195 pass yds, 35 rush yds, 1 TD
Lamar Miller: 85 rush yds, 20 rec yds, 1 TD
Daniel Thomas: 20 rush yds
Mike Wallace: 60 rec yds
Jarvis Landry: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Charles Clay: 25 rec yds
Prediction: Dolphins 20, Chargers 17 ^ Top
Broncos at Patriots
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: After only
two road games in their first seven matchups, Denver begins a
three game stretch away from home where QB Peyton Manning will
once again square off against his primary rival for the past decade
and a half. So far in 2014 Manning has thrown 22 touchdowns and
only three interceptions, and five times already this season he
has recorded three or more passing scores with zero picks. That
plethora of touchdowns has been shared amongst the best collection
of receiving talent in the league, with WRs Demaryius Thomas and
Emmanuel Sanders each averaging more than 90 yards a game with
four or more scores each. Touchdown leader TE Julius Thomas has
nine through seven games with better than 45 yards per contest.
The only true disappointment has been WR Wes Welker, who after
serving a suspension at the beginning of the year has only one
score in five contests and has not gained more than 60 yards in
any game, while twice failing to reach double digits in yardage.
Since joining the Broncos, Manning has developed a history of
rotating through receivers and utilizing those who most recently
come under scrutiny. Considering Welker used to play in New England
and much of the media attention will try to bring up the circumstances
of his departure from that team, it wouldn’t be surprising
to see Manning target the slot receiver early and often, letting
the on-field product speak to the critics much more than either
of the veterans will through the media.
Looking to spoil the Welker homecoming will be the Patriots and
the second best pass defense in the league, surrendering just
211 yards per game through the air. Denver has the third best
passing offense in the league, averaging nearly 300 yards per
contest, so the winner of aerial battle has a strong chance of
determining the outcome of the game. The key to the game, especially
as it relates to the pass, will likely rest along the line of
scrimmage, as the Broncos have given up only eight sacks in seven
contests, and New England has recorded an impressive 21 sacks,
with three or more in each of the last three games. Top Denver
receivers will have to matchup against CBs Darrelle Revis and
Brandon Browner, one of the best duos in the AFC, so while the
offense will be less heavily favored in that matchup, that does
leave the tight ends and slot receivers more available for Manning
to target. Each of the Broncos pass catchers present a different
matchup concern, and with injuries affecting the New England linebacking
corps it is expected that the defense will have to sacrifice either
their pass rush or their pass coverage, and whichever they choose
Manning’s recent form suggests he’ll be able to take
advantage of whatever the defense gives to him.
Running Game Thoughts: For perhaps the first time all season
Denver is displaying consistency out of their backfield. In each
of the last three games RB Ronnie Hillman has recorded over 100
total yards and has also scored two touchdowns during that span,
earning at least 11 fantasy points in each. Additionally, backup
RB Juwan Thompson has received six or more carries and rushed
for no fewer than 24 yards per contest. The continued absence
of RB Montee Ball (groin) has allowed Hillman to establish himself
as the primary ball carrier, and Thompson has benefited from his
promotion to top backup. Together they have helped Denver average
101 rushing yards per game this season and record five of the
team’s six rushing touchdowns, providing a valuable offensive
balance to the Manning-led passing attack. Both ball carriers
are averaging at least 4.5 yards per carry this season, taking
advantage of defenses who are softened by the threat of the passing
game and the execution of the offensive line. In the two closest
contests since Hillman became the starting running back, both
14-point victories for the Broncos, the team has rushed for 138
and 139 yards and Hillman hit triple digits. Assuming that the
matchup with New England will be close again, look for Denver
to have another good rushing performance.
Another factor lending itself toward Hillman having a productive
Week 9 is that New England has the eighth worst run defense in
the NFL, though they’ve only conceded four rushing touchdowns
this season; only six teams have given up fewer. During their
four game winning streak the Patriots have held two opponents
to under 80 yards, but have allowed the two others to gain 150
or more, with those two coming in the more recent contests and
following key injuries to the front seven. Though the quarterback
duel is the most captivating story of this contest, a secondary
storyline will revolve around the non-quarterback parts of this
game. With the Patriots struggling to contain the run recently
and Denver finding success on the ground as well as through the
air, contributions from Hillman and Thompson will be the X-factor
in what could be the final meeting of these two historic quarterbacks.
Projections:
Peyton Manning: 265 pass yds, 3 TDs
Ronnie Hillman: 90 rush yds, 15 rec yds, 1 TD
Demaryius Thomas: 60 rec yds
Emmanuel Sanders: 55 rec yds
Wes Welker: 70 rec yds, 2 TDs
Julius Thomas: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sometimes decisions are made on gut feelings
alone, often in spite of evidence to the contrary, and those are
the building blocks of valuable memories whether good or bad.
Recent game history, team matchup history, and even history between
these quarterbacks all suggest that New England is expected to
win this game and for QB Tom Brady to largely be responsible for
that victory. Over the past four games he’s totaled nearly
1300 yards and has 14 touchdowns with no interceptions. The average
margin of Patriots victories during that time has been almost
18 points, and New England has scored fewer than 37 points only
once in those four contests while no opponent has surpassed 25.
This four game winning streak has seen three different pass catchers
lead the team for the week, including WR Brandon LaFell who has
scored three times and broken 97 yards twice, and TE Rob Gronkowski
who has four touchdowns and three games with 94 or more receiving
yards. The only disappointment during that time has been WR Julian
Edelman, who hasn’t scored since Week 2, and after three
straight games of 80 or more yards, in the most recent five contests
he has surpassed 45 on only one occasion. The wild card of the
passing attack is TE Tim Wright, who has scored in three of the
last four games, but has one or zero receptions in two of those
contests. He’s the near-definition of a “boom or bust”
fantasy player.
The task of containing the Patriots passing attack will fall
on a mostly-pedestrian Denver defense. They’re 17th in passing
yards allowed, tied for ninth in touchdowns surrendered, and tied
for 13th in interceptions forced. The only exceptional aspect
of the pass defense is their ability to bring pressure, ranking
sixth in both sacks recorded and completion percentage allowed.
This off-season the Broncos defense was retooled as if in an attempt
to defend against Brady and New England, so Week 9 will provide
a true test of the effectiveness of the personnel changes. Excluding
one garbage time score from a backup quarterback, the Denver defense
has given up four touchdowns and three interceptions in the past
two games while recording eight total sacks and holding both teams
to a net of 250 passing yards or less. Perhaps most importantly,
the Broncos have not given up more than 26 points in any game
this season, and since their bye week no opponent has scored more
than 21. Any ability to contain Brady and limit the damage done
by the aerial attack will allow the Denver offense to try to keep
the game close, perhaps giving Manning a chance to buck history
and steal a win from the Patriots.
Running Game Thoughts: Although the record shows four victories
in the four most recent contests, the Patriots have not been without
loss during that time. Primary RB Stevan Ridley (knee) was lost
for the year, and since then the ground game from New England
has been anything but predictable. They’ve had three different
leading rushers in as many weeks, including two contests where
the team didn’t reach 65 yards on the ground, and rumors
regarding who the most likely backup would be have proven to be
almost entirely untrue. Though Coach Bill Belichick has a history
of personnel surprises, the current prevailing wisdom sees RB
Jonas Gray entrenched as the new primary ball carrier, with the
versatile RB Shane Vereen once again assuming his change-of-pace
role and being a matchup problem for the defense when he releases
out of the backfield. Regardless of who the ball carrier is though,
New England still only averages 106 rushing yards per game, good
enough for just 17th place in the league. They’ve scored
more rushing touchdowns than just one other team, and they have
the seventh worst per carry average with a mark of just 3.8 yards.
With the exception of Vereen who contributes heavily as a receiver,
Patriots running backs are too touchdown dependent to be used
reliably as fantasy starters.
Running the ball with any success will be even more difficult
when the Broncos come to town, with their top ranked rushing defense,
which allows just 72 yards per game. During their four game winning
streak Denver has not allowed more than 62 yards, and have held
two of their opponents to roughly half of that. Only one rushing
touchdown has been scored during that time, and no runner with
more than three carries has averaged better than 2.8 yards per
attempt. The same front seven which has disrupted the passing
game and harassed quarterbacks has been stellar along the line
of scrimmage in filling running lanes and dominating ball carriers.
Aside from a broken play or a big gain, New England isn’t
likely to find much success on the ground, and since no Broncos
opponent has been able to gain more than 25 yards on a single
carry the probability of busting a long run is incredibly slim.
Unless the passing attack is particularly effective and forces
the defense to over commit, the Patriots will only be using the
running game as part of a balanced game plan rather than as a
primary means of moving the ball down field.
Projections:
Tom Brady: 265 pass yds, 3 TDs
Jonas Gray: 40 rush yds
Shane Vereen: 20 rush yds, 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Brandon LaFell: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Julian Edelman: 45 rec yds
Rob Gronkowski: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Broncos 31, Patriots 27 ^ Top
Colts at Giants
- (Thorne)
Passing Game Thoughts: Even with
the elder of the Manning brothers no longer in Indianapolis, the
matchup with the Giants still pits one of the league’s best
quarterbacks against a two time Super Bowl Champion. This season
no one has been better than QB Andrew Luck, who leads the league
in passing yards and is also tied for the lead with 22 passing
touchdowns. The second year phenom still has room to improve though,
with nine interceptions from eight games, including a trio of
contests where he’s thrown more than one pick. Luck is protected
by an offensive line that was widely regarded as one of the least
impressive units in the NFL, and yet he has taken only 13 sacks
this season. To go along with the top passer in the league, the
Colts also have the receiving yardage leader in WR T.Y. Hilton.
He has topped 100 yards in each of the last three games, and his
average target is traveling further down field during that span
than earlier in the year, showing that Indianapolis is making
a concerted effort to use Hilton to stretch the field and take
advantage of his speed. The team leaders for receiving scores
are not wide outs however, as TE Dwayne Allen and RB Ahmad Bradshaw
each have six touchdown receptions; TE Coby Fleener has three
scores, and no other pass catcher has more than two. Since Luck
has a tendency to spread the ball around, only Hilton has stupendous
yardage upside, but every receiver has an opportunity to find
the endzone even if they don’t pick up very many yards.
Luck may find that spreading the ball around to the tight ends
in Week 9 will be most beneficial, as the Giants have surrendered
four touchdowns to tight ends in the past two games and allowed
five players from that position to gain a combined 210 receiving
yards. New York has been somewhat of an enigma for most of the
season, with one of the eight worst passing defenses allowing
262 yards per game and a sack total of 13 which is just marginally
better, but they’re also one of only two teams to have given
up fewer passing touchdowns than interceptions forced. After losing
back to back games before a bye in Week 8 the Giants have had
two weeks to regroup the defense and hopefully find a way to keep
Luck in check. His style of passing yields great fantasy scores,
with enough yards and touchdowns to make up for the mistakes he
tends to make, but his on the field inconsistencies have led to
three Colts losses and on Monday night New York will look to serve
him number four.
Running Game Thoughts: Aided by injuries and disappointing performances,
RB Ahmad Bradshaw has still not been able to wrestle control of
the backfield away from RB Trent Richardson. Though the former
has 25% fewer carries, Bradshaw has outgained Richardson on the
season, though they’ve combined for only four rushing touchdowns
between them. Bradshaw is more active, and far more successful,
in the passing game as well, but Indianapolis seems content with
giving the majority of carries to the less productive runner.
Last week Richardson (hamstring) wasn’t available and Bradshaw
still only managed to receive six carries, though with the team
only attempting 10 rushes that number seems somewhat less depressing.
In limited work the veteran ball carrier still managed to find
the endzone and average 5.8 yards per carry. As a team the Colts
average nearly 116 rushing yards per game, but if quarterback
carries were to be excluded their rushing averages would rank
in the bottom ten of the league.
Against a rushing defense like New York it’s possible that
even struggling running backs could have a good game, so Richardson
owners don’t necessarily have to fret this matchup more
than any other week. Coach Chuck Pagano said he’ll be ready
to go after missing last week so Richardson will once again be
in line for a healthy number of carries. The Colts may play it
safe with him and try to limit his touches somewhat, but since
he’s shown little explosion to this point in the season,
the hamstring injury may not affect his play at all. Through seven
games the Giants are allowing 122 rushing yards per game and have
surrendered eight touchdowns on the ground while yielding 4.4
yards per carry. Before the bye, New York game up 155 or more
rushing yards in back to back games, and the top running back
surpassed 125 yards in both instances. With an extra week of rest
and additional time to try to sort out their defensive woes it’s
hard to imagine New York not being any better against the run,
but that may just be because it’s even harder to imagine
that they’d be any worse.
Projections:
Andrew Luck: 320 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Ahmad Bradshaw: 60 rush yds, 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Trent Richardson: 35 rush yds, 25 rec yds
T.Y. Hilton: 115 rec yds, 1 TD
Reggie Wayne: 60 rec yds
Dwayne Allen: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Coby Fleener: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Of all the areas that needed the bye week
to regroup, the Giants aerial attack probably wasn’t one
of them. In Week 7 QB Eli Manning threw for almost 250 yards with
three touchdowns and no interceptions, and the offensive line
didn’t surrender a sack after surrendering an average of
2.5 per game before that. Had Manning thrown for an additional
21 yards he would have outperformed the opposing quarterback in
ever significant category that week. In that same game two receivers
recorded more than 70 yards and two more recorded at least one
touchdown reception. All of this was one game removed from New
York losing top WR Victor Cruz (knee) for the season. Though they
won’t be able to replace Cruz and will have less ability
to use multi-receiver formations, the Giants have absorbed the
loss in stride thanks to rookie WR Odell Beckham Jr. making an
immediate impact after sitting out the first four games due to
an injury of his own. Though he has averaged just 35 yards per
game he has three touchdowns in as many contests, already making
him the leading scorer among New York wide receivers. The top
touchdown pass catchers still continue to be TEs Larry Donnell
and Daniel Fells, each with four scores each, though Donnell has
three times as many yards as his counterpart and is significantly
more useful for fantasy owners.
Like the Colts defense when the elder Manning was under center,
the Luck version is built around pass rushers and ball hawks,
with the idea of playing from ahead and forcing opponents into
passing situations. The problem however is that when the pass
rushers aren’t getting to the quarterback and the secondary
isn’t forcing turnovers, there generally isn’t enough
other defensive substance to affect the passing game of their
opponent. Two games ago Indianapolis recorded four sacks, allowed
zero touchdowns, and held their opponent to less than 50% completions
and 130 yards. Most recently however the defense was unable to
get to the quarterback, forced no interceptions, and was gouged
for six touchdown passes and over 500 yards. Two receivers had
over 110 yards and three more surpassed 55; four of those top
five receivers caught at least one touchdown. If Manning and the
offensive line can perform in Week 9 like they did just before
the bye then the Indianapolis secondary may once again be in for
another air raid on the east coast.
Running Game Thoughts: At the onset of the injury it was hoped
that RB Rashad Jennings (knee) would be able to return after the
bye in Week 8, but he has been ruled out for the Monday night
contest. After the first day of practice this week Coach Tom Coughlin
said “he’s day to day” and that “he’s
not ready to go” yet. That means rookie RB Andre Williams
is in line to get his third start of the season and RB Peyton
Hillis will be waiting in the wings should he need a breather
or fail to deliver an inspiring performance. Though only active
on offense in four games, Hillis has already been the better of
the two out of the backfield, and with Williams barely averaging
3.1 yards per carry the rookie is being outgained in that area
as well. Physically the rookie is smaller and quicker while Hillis
is larger and more powerful, but Jennings has been so successful
because he possesses the attributes of both as a fast but physical
runner. Until the starter returns the Giants ground game may only
be treading water, but if adjustments were made during the bye
week then it’s possible that a primetime audience will get
to observe that dramatic improvement.
There are nine teams in the NFL that have allowed fewer than
100 yards per game, and of that group only one is allowing opponents
to gain more than four yards per carry. That one team is Indianapolis,
and the suggestion is that teams don’t run all over the
Colts primarily because they don’t try to do so. To date
only five teams have faced fewer rushing attempts than Indianapolis,
and all five of those teams have already had their bye whereas
the Colts have not. In two of their last three games they’ve
given up over 115 yards to two of the better rushing attacks in
the NFL, so while the Giants have reason for optimism there's
still a considerable gap between them and the teams who have found
success on the ground against the Colts. Ranking 15th on the ground,
New York averages 114 yards per game, but without Jennings they’ve
averaged just 95 in two contests. The key for the Giants will
be sticking with the ground game even if Indianapolis gets an
early lead, because the teams who have given the Colts the most
trouble are the ones who have found a way to have a successful
rushing attack.
Projections:
Eli Manning: 265 pass yds, 3 TDs
Andre Williams: 55 rush yds
Peyton Hillis: 40 rush yds, 1 TD
Odell Beckham Jr.: 70 rec yds, 2 TDs
Rueben Randle: 75 rec yds
Larry Donnell: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Daniel Fells: 20 rec yds
Prediction: Giants 28, Colts 27 ^ Top
Jets @ Chiefs
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: The time
has come for Geno Smith to take his rightful spot on the bench
for the New York Jets. Smith, who has been underwhelming to be
kind, was benched during the team’s Week 8 blowout loss
to the Bills after having thrown for five yards and three interceptions.
This led to the first significant playing time in a Jets uniform
for Mike Vick. Vick stepped in and immediately had struggles of
his own against the quietly superb Buffalo pass rush. He fumbled
twice and threw an interception in roughly three quarters of play,
but did throw for 153 yards. More importantly, though, were his
eight rush attempts for 69 yards. The rushing line alone reminds
us why Vick was once considered a possible No. 1 overall fantasy
draft pick. Despite being 34 years old, Vick brings elite athleticism
to the quarterback position and is capable of rushing for 100
yards on any given week. Unfortunately, his erratic throwing can
make his receivers an unreliable source of fantasy production.
On a positive note, Eric Decker appears to be healthy after a
hamstring injury had hampered him for the better part of a month.
Meanwhile, Percy Harvin touched the ball seven times on offense
for 50 total yards in his first game in a Jets uniform.
Both Harvin and Decker will likely be frustrating fantasy options
from here on out, but it could be even more difficult to trust
them this week as they head to Kansas City to go up against a
Chiefs defense that currently ranks No. 9 in the NFL in fewest
fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wide receivers on
the season. They’ve gone back-to-back games without allowing
a touchdown to the wide receiver position and have not conceded
more than one touchdown to an opposing wide receiver group on
the year. One area of weakness, however, is that the Chiefs have
allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight
ends, including an average of one touchdown per game allowed to
the position on the year. Jets tight end Jace Amaro has a chance
to breakout with Vick behind center, as he has proven in the past
that he loves throwing to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: When the Jets made the decision to acquire
former Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson this off-season,
most fantasy analysts viewed the New York backfield as a “smash
and dash” type situation where both players could potentially
have value. But through the first half of the season, that has
not been the case at all. Johnson has completely fallen out of
favor in New York and has had fewer than five rush attempts in
two of the past three Jets contests. Meanwhile Ivory is beginning
to assert himself as a reliable fantasy option even in a bad Jets
offense as he has now carried the ball a total of 34 times in
his past two contests, rushing for 150 yards and three touchdowns
on those attempts. While the offensive situation in New York can
be difficult to prognosticate, we can now assume that Johnson
is essentially only going to be on the field in a purely complementary
role to the team’s feature back, which is Ivory.
In Week 9, Ivory will attempt to continue his hot streak against
a Kansas City defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy
points per game to opposing running backs this season and has,
shockingly, not allowed a single touchdown to the position yet
this season. Given that Ivory has only broken the 50-yard rushing
mark in three of his seven games thus far, it would be wise for
fantasy owners to bring low expectations into this very difficult
matchup.
Projections:
Michael Vick: 160 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 60 rush yds
Chris Ivory: 70 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Chris Johnson: 25 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Eric Decker: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Percy Harvin: 30 rec yds, 20 rush yds
Jace Amaro: 30 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Efficient, boring football has been the
trademark of Alex Smith’s career and while it has made him
a long-time starter in the league and a solid on-the-field player,
when it comes to fantasy production, it doesn’t get much
less exciting than Smith. He does have a pair of three touchdown
games, but has now thrown just two touchdowns over his past three
contests. It’s also worth noting that he has only eclipsed
250 yards passing one time this season -- and that came in a 255-yard
game against the Broncos back in Week 2. It’s not overly
surprising given Smith’s play style that his favorite target
would be a tight end, but Travis Kelce continues to impress when
given the opportunity. Unfortunately, his blocking still leaves
something to be desired which has led to limited snaps for the
talented young pass-catcher. Still, he has averaged four catches
per game this season and his three touchdowns lead all Kansas
City receiving options.
Kelce and the entire Kansas City offense are going to have their
ups and downs, but it’s hard to think of a better matchup
than the one that’s in front of them in Week 9 when they
host a New York Jets defense that has conceded the single most
fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks so far in 2014.
Including their humiliating performance against Kyle Orton in
Week 8 wherein they conceded four passing scores, the Jets have
now given up 13 touchdown passes over their past four contests.
It hasn’t just been a short stint of bad performance, either.
The Jets have given up multiple passing touchdowns in every game
this season and have somehow managed to intercept only one pass
on the year. These inexplicably horrible performances have Smith
and the Kansas City passing game on fantasy radars for Week 9.
Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles’ season started off
slow with a string of injuries frustrating fantasy owners, but
since his return, Charles has reminded fantasy owners exactly
why he was one of the top three picks in almost every fantasy
draft this off-season. He has averaged 102.5 total yards and scored
a total of six touchdowns in his past four contests, including
an excellent Week 8 performance against the Rams where he compiled
an impressive 111 total yards with a pair of touchdowns. There
is some concern in that backup Knile Davis has taken a total of
26 carries over his past two games, but it’s worth noting
that both of those outputs came in Chiefs wins and one was a blowout
win. Charles is still clearly “the guy” in this backfield
and he will continue to get most of, if not all of the money carries
for the Chiefs. Given that reality, look for Charles to continue
being a top five fantasy running back through the remainder of
the season.
That remains true even in a tough matchup this week against a
stingy New York Jets defense. The Jets have been horrendous against
the pass, but their run defense has actually been surprisingly
good in 2014. They’ve conceded the sixth-fewest fantasy
points to the position, including giving up fewer than 65 rushing
yards in five of their eight contests. One interesting stat, though,
is that they have struggled to contain opposing running backs
in the passing game. They’ve given up 285 yards and three
scores to running backs in the passing game and that is certainly
an area that Charles could exploit this week.
Projections:
Alex Smith: 210 pass yds, 2 TD, 20 rush yds
Jamaal Charles: 70 rush yds, 1 TD, 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Dwayne Bowe: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Travis Kelce: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Jets 17 ^ Top
Rams @ 49ers
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Just a few
weeks back, we were talking about St. Louis quarterback Austin
Davis being an under-the-radar fantasy option after he had back-to-back
300-plus yard, three touchdown passing days. Since then, Davis
has fallen back to reality as he has not even eclipsed 250 yards
and has just four total passing touchdowns in his past three games
combined. Worse yet, he is now going to be without his favorite
receiver, Brian Quick, who suffered a torn rotator cuff and dislocated
shoulder in Week 8 and will miss the remainder of the season.
Of course, this does open up the depth chart for other players
to step up and take the open starter spot, but it certainly does
not do much to inspire confidence from fantasy owners who have
been keeping an eye on Davis. His slide started back in Week 6
against the very same San Francisco team that he will be up against
here in Week 9, the San Francisco 49ers. Davis and the Rams got
out to a 14-0 lead late in the first half, but went on to lose
the game in a blowout as both their offense and defense completely
collapsed in the second half. Now on the road in San Francisco,
Davis will have a chance to make up for the mistakes he made when
these teams met a few weeks back. Unfortunately, without Quick
and up against a San Francisco defense that has allowed the second-fewest
passing yards on the year, this doesn’t look like a great
bounceback opportunity for the Davis and the Rams.
Running Game Thoughts: Just when we thought that we were finally
figuring out the St. Louis running back situation, they threw
another curve ball at us and left us scratching our heads in Week
8. Of course, being on the losing end of a blowout is rarely a
great thing for running backs, but 16 total carries split 7-5-4
among Tre Mason, Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham is just makes
things that much worse. That even split of carries is nothing
short of awful for fantasy purposes. One has to assume that Cunningham,
the team’s best pass-catching back, saw a higher than usual
number of snaps given the score of the game, but there just isn’t
much to like about this situation right now.
Mason is still likely the player you want to own if you have
to choose one, but fantasy owners will have to be in a truly desperate
situation if they even think about using him against a defense
like San Francisco’s. The 49ers have long been one of the
best run defenses in football and 2014 has been no different.
They’ve given up just 518 rushing yards in seven games and
Mason and the Rams just don’t seem like they’re ready
to break into that impressive stat line. For Cunningham owners,
it’s also worth noting that the 49ers have given up the
NFL’s fewest receiving yardage to opposing running backs
on the season.
Projections:
Austin Davis: 210 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Tre Mason: 55 rush yds
Benny Cunningham: 20 rush yds, 25 rec yds
Kenny Britt: 50 rec yds
Tavon Austin: 25 rec yds, 15 rush yds
Jared Cook: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: ”Consistently inconsistent”
has been the story of Colin Kaepernick’s NFL career, at
least from a fantasy standpoint. Although he currently sits as
the No. 14 scorer at the position, Kaepernick has only cracked
250 passing yards twice this season. Then again, those two games
were each of his past two games, so perhaps things are looking
up for the young signal caller. Word is that Vernon Davis is getting
closer to 100-percent which is good news for Kaepernick and really
the rest of the offense as he is one of the best threats at the
position in the entire league, especially in the red zone. The
other receivers in the San Francisco offense have been decent
lately, but it has really been Anquan Boldin who has stepped up
with Davis not being fully healthy. Boldin has at least four catches
in six of the 49ers first seven games this season, including back-to-back
games with seven receptions.
In Week 9, the 49ers will have a chance to feast again against
a defense that they beat up just a few weeks back as they host
the St. Louis Rams. In that contest, which took place in St. Louis,
Kaepernick and the 49ers bounced back from a big first half deficit
only to win the game in blowout fashion in the second half. Kaepernick
ended up throwing for a season high in both yardage (343) and
touchdowns (3) in that game and it looks like he should have a
good opportunity to improve on those numbers against a Rams defense
that has conceded multiple passing touchdowns in five of their
first seven contests.
Running Game Thoughts: San Francisco’s passing game hasn’t
been too exciting this season and that would normally not be surprising
given the success that Frank Gore has had running the ball over
the course of his career, but that really has not been the story
in 2014. Gore did have two nice 100-plus yard rushing days earlier
this year, but has since fallen into a pathetic slump that barely
makes him worth owning from a fantasy standpoint at the moment.
He has taken just 25 total carries over his past two games and
has turned those into just a paltry 58 yards. Worse yet, he is
now almost completely nonexistent in the passing game as he has
only made four catches on the season. This lack of production
would almost certainly mean that most teams would turn to another
player to start getting a bigger workload, but it hasn’t
just been Gore who has struggled. Rookie Carlos Hyde, who is expected
to be the running back of the future in San Francisco, has rushed
for just 29 yards on 14 carries over the past two games.
What’s frustrating from a fantasy standpoint is that the
49ers’ Week 9 opponents, the St. Louis Rams, were one of
the opponents in these two recent ugly rushing performances. We’d
have to assume that the 49ers will have more success this week
at home than they did on the road in St. Louis, but there is not
a lot to love about Gore or Hyde at the moment, even against a
struggling Rams defense. Don’t be too excited by the fact
that the Chiefs scored three rushing touchdowns against the Rams
last week. Gore and Hyde are a solid duo, but they are not Jamaal
Charles. Be weary of this matchup and the lack of production we’ve
seen from these guys as of late.
Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 235 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 20 rush yds
Frank Gore: 60 rush yds
Carlos Hyde: 30 rush yds
Anquan Boldin: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Crabtree: 60 rec yds
Steve Johnson: 35 rec yds
Vernon Davis: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: 49ers 20, Rams 13 ^ Top
Raiders @ Seahawks
- (Caron)
Passing Game Thoughts: Given the
fact that we’re talking about the only winless team in the
NFL right now, it’s hard not to look at Derek Carr as about
the only bright spot on this otherwise embarrassingly bad football
team. The rookie QB has shown signs that make you think that the
Raiders might have finally landed themselves a decent signal caller
for the future. While that might not translate into many wins
on the field in 2014, it has given fantasy owners something to
think about. Carr has been over 13 fantasy points (standard scoring)
in four of his seven games so far. While he’s been under
eight points in the other three games, that high-end potential
is something that has been almost nonexistent in Oakland in recent
years. Carr’s progression as a passer has benefited his
wide receivers as well. Most notably, Andre Holmes (4) and James
Jones (3) have already combined to catch seven of Carr’s
nine passing touchdowns on the year.
Both players are on fantasy radars and should be owned in most
leagues, but it’s going to be tough to trust anyone in what
could be one of the ugliest matchups of the year as the Raiders
head to Seattle to go up against the Seattle Seahawks and the
“Legion of Boom.” The Seattle secondary hasn’t
been anywhere near as daunting in 2014 as it was in 2013, but
this just looks like the kind of matchup that they could feast
on. A rookie quarterback playing behind an awful offensive line
with no running game to speak of? Sounds like a lot of interceptions
coming. There could be some garbage time points to be had in this
one, but it’s hard to rely on those points and fantasy owners
should probably be looking away from the Raiders offense here
in Week 9.
Running Game Thoughts: What is there to like about this running
game? There was some excitement coming into the season when both
Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden were on the same roster,
but it has been proven to be much less exciting on the field than
it was on paper. Neither Jones-Drew nor McFadden has gone over
80 rushing yards in any game this season and they’ve scored
just two touchdowns between the two of them. If you’re absolutely
desperate and in need of a player who is likely to touch the ball
between 10-15 times, McFadden seems to be “the guy”
at the moment, but in a matchup against Seattle and their ninth-ranked
fantasy run defense, this is not the time to start trusting the
Oakland running game. This could easily be the biggest blowout
of the week and if it is, McFadden might not be a big part of
the gameplan.
Projections:
Derek Carr: 215 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Darren McFadden: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Maurice Jones-Drew: 20 rec yds
James Jones: 50 rec yds, 1 TD
Andre Holmes: 50 rec yds
Mychal Rivera: 40 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Typically a smooth sailing fantasy quarterbacks
who provides a consistent stream of production, Seattle quarterback
Russell Wilson has been anything but consistent as of late. His
monster games in Weeks 5 and 7 have now been sandwiched between
by ugly performances in Weeks 6 and 8. Of course, it helps that
the two huge games came against the NFL’s two worst fantasy
defenses against quarterbacks (Washington and St. Louis). Still,
the fact that he is now without his perceived top receiving threat
is a major threat. Percy Harvin, who is now off in New York, may
not have produced big numbers this season but he did force defenses
to notice where he was on the field, which left things open for
other players. Harvin’s absence has left open a big void
in the offense which veteran receiver Doug Baldwin is attempting
to fill. His 13 catches for 184 yards and a touchdown over the
past two games are an impressive stat that should not be overlooked.
He has become Seattle’s lone fantasy threat in the passing
game aside from Wilson himself and the Seahawks do have a good
matchup this weekend against a pathetic Oakland defense. Oakland
has conceded at least one passing touchdown in 17 straight contests
going back to 2013, which means that Wilson should have a decent
enough fantasy day to be a starting fantasy QB on most rosters.
Running Game Thoughts: A string of reports indicating that veteran
running back Marshawn Lynch may not return to Seattle in 2015
due to the team’s developing salary cap dilemma set the
Seattle media into a whirlwind this past week. Lynch, who has
rushed for over 1,200 yards and scored double-digit touchdowns
in each of his three full seasons as a Seahawk, was rumored to
be on the trade market and was actually linked to a potential
trade to Oakland shortly before the deadline. As the deadline
approached, though, it became evident that Lynch would remain
in Seattle at least through the 2014 season, which gave fantasy
owners a sigh of relief that their star tailback would not be
set out to pasture in the career killing offense that is Oakland.
Lynch is not a stranger to controversy so don’t expect these
recent rumors to affect his on-field performance, but the question
now becomes whether or not Seattle will attempt to get a real
look at the other players on their roster, specifically Christine
Michael and Robert Turbin, before the season is over. We could
get our first glimpse of that, if it’s going to happen at
all, this week when the Seahawks host the winless Raiders.
While the defending Super Bowl champions have been in a bit of
a slump as of late, this looks like exactly the kind of matchup
that should be able to cure their woes, at least offensively.
The Raiders are currently the second-worst fantasy defense in
the league against opposing running backs and they have conceded
double-digit fantasy points (standard scoring) to the position
in all but one game so far this season and 11 of their past 12
games going back to 2013. Lynch is a rock solid RB1 option this
week and should get plenty of carries in what will likely be a
blowout win for the Seahawks. The only concern here is if the
team will sit him down early if the score gets too out of hand.
Still, that’s a risk that fantasy owners should be willing
to take because by that time he could already be over 100 yards
with a touchdown or two on the board.
Projections:
Russell Wilson: 220 pass yds, 2 TD, 40 rush yds
Marshawn Lynch: 80 rush yds, 2 TD, 15 rec yds
Doug Baldwin: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Kearse: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Seahawks 31, Raiders 13 ^ Top
Buccaneers at
Browns - (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: If the Buccaneers
could begin this season all over again, they surely would have
let second-year quarterback Mike Glennon start over journeyman
Josh McCown. Glennon hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire,
but he’s moved the offense much better than McCown, and
there’s some hope at least that he can grow into the role.
In 5 games (4 starts) Glennon has thrown for over 300 yards twice
and has 8 TDs compared to 4 interceptions. At 6’6”
Glennon looks awkward when trying to evade the pass rush, but
slides well in the pocket and has shown composure that belies
his inexperience. Veteran receiver Vincent Jackson has struggled
thus far, and was the subject of trade rumors at the deadline,
so perhaps the team will attempt to move him this offseason. Rookie
wide receiver Mike Evans and rookie tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins
are big athletic targets that could grow with Glennon making Jackson
all the more expendable. For the time being, having three targets
all at 6’5” tall should go a long way towards helping
Glennon improve in the red-zone once the offense gets in a better
rhythm.
The Browns have only been a league average pass defense when many
expected much more from this unit. The team is allowing 252.1
passing yards per game with 10 touchdowns allowed through seven
games.
Running Game Thoughts: The struggling Doug Martin is another player
that was heavily mentioned in trade rumors as the deadline approached.
Martin, who followed up his very good rookie season with an injury
plagued sophomore season, has struggled again in 2014 and has
been outplayed by Bobby Rainey most weeks. He has not been practicing
this week and has been seen in a walking boot making it unlikely
that he plays in the game. With the team expected to get rookie
Charles Sims back from the IR Designate to Return list, it’s
possible that Martin could be slowly phased out of the offense,
even when he returns to health. The Tampa Bay Offensive line has
performed poorly but Martin hasn’t looked nearly as explosive
as he did as a rookie.
Despite adding stand out run stopper Carlos Dansby to the mix
this offseason, the Browns have been amongst the worst run defenses
in the league all year. The Browns are giving up 143.4 yards per
game and 7 scores on the ground. It’s a situation for the
Buccaneers to exploit, but they might not have the horses to do
it.
Projections:
Mike Glennon: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 10 rush yds
Charles Sims: 35 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Bobby Rainey: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 35 rec yds
Mike Evans: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Vincent Jackson: 40 rec yds
Louis Murphy: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: 30 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer got back on track against Oakland
after completing only 39% of his passes with an interception against
Jacksonville the week prior. Hoyer completed 19-of-28 for 275
yards and a touchdown without turning the ball over in Week 8.
Hoyer has somewhat limited arm strength, but is a fiery leader
with the smarts to overcome his limitations. Tight end Jordan
Cameron who was already a disappointment for most of the season
while recovering from ankle and shoulder injuries, suffered a
concussion last week and is likely to be out for a while. Until
Josh Gordon’s suspension ends in Week 12, there just aren’t
any legitimate threats in the group of pass catchers for Hoyer
to rely on to make plays consistently. Andrew Hawkins is the best
of the bunch but his small stature makes it difficult for him
to truly dominate a game, but his quickness and open field ability
does allow him to make plays. He’s stretched as the go to
guy right now, but Hoyer has to play the hand he’s been
dealt.
Of course with the 30th ranked pass defense coming into town,
a boatload of weapons may not be necessary. Tampa Bay was ravaged
in two blowout losses to Atlanta and Baltimore, and is allowing
286 passing yards per game and have yielded 16 passing touchdowns
in seven games.
Running Game Thoughts: The Cleveland running game was very strong
to start the season, but once the team lost center Alex Mack the
offensive line regressed and the run game has suffered. Ben Tate
is a hard-nosed runner but doesn’t have much wiggle so he
needs a line that will provide lanes for his cut back running
style. Rookies Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell both looked very
good when Tate was lost to a knee injury early in the season,
but haven’t been able to get anything done in their backup
roles since his return. The Browns were at their best when they
were able to run the ball, and old school Head Coach Mike Pettine
would prefer a smash mouth brand of football, so the line will
need to find a way to sustain the loss of Mack quickly or once
the Browns move past the soft part of their schedule, wins may
be tough to find.
Projections:
Brian Hoyer: 265 pass yds 1 TD, 1 INT
Ben Tate: 85 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Terrance West: 35 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Miles Austin: 45 rec yds
Andrew Hawkins: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Jim Dray: 35 rec yds
Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Browns 17 ^ Top
Ravens at Steelers
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco
threw a beautiful deep pass late in the game to Steve Smith that
would have won last week’s matchup for the Ravens if not
for an offensive pass interference call, but outside of that he
had a very poor Week 8. Flacco completed only 50% of his passes
for 195 yards and 2 interceptions. Flacco had a five touchdown
effort against Tampa Bay in Week 6, but has followed that up with
an average and a below average performance. He will need to step
up his game on Sunday Night Football against the hated division
rival Steelers to stay in the mix in the competitive AFC North.
The Ravens lost tight end Dennis Pita earlier in the season to
a hip fracture and have now lost backup Owen Daniels indefinitely
following a knee scope, so they are down two men at an important
position in Gary Kubiak’s offense. Third round rookie Crockett
Gilmore stepped in last week but only secured two catches for
23 yards against the Bengals. On the outside, Steve Smith once
again outplayed the younger incumbent Torrey Smith, who was held
catchless to add yet another brick in the wall of his disappointing
2014 season.
The Steelers defense yielded 400 yards and 3 touchdowns to Andrew
Luck last week, but also picked him off twice, caused him to fumble
and forced him into a safety in a shootout game easily won by
Pittsburgh. On the season, the team is allowing 251 yards per
game with 13 touchdowns through eight games. Joe Flacco was “held”
to 166 yards with 2 touchdowns the last time these two teams faced
each other, but did help the Ravens to a Week 2 win.
Running Game Thoughts: Veteran Justin Forsett has effectively
replaced Ray Rice’s production in the running game after
grabbing the job and keeping it when Bernard Pierce missed time
with a groin injury. The veteran running back, who turned 29 this
season, is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and has shown that he
can handle a feature back workload with 54 carries over the last
three games. Pierce was a healthy scratch last week and it was
rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro taking over at the goaline last week,
and scoring twice. Taliaferro at 226 pounds runs hard and should
handle the short yardage carries going forward, leaving this situation
a little dicey for fantasy owners, but a good situation for the
Ravens so that they do not overwork the sub-200 pound Forsett.
The Steelers are only allowing 107.8 yards per game on the ground,
despite losing promising rookie Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones
for multiple weeks to injury. The Ravens like to run a balanced
attack, so the Pittsburgh run defense will need to be up to the
task.
Projections:
Joe Flacco: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yd
Lorenzo Taliaferro: 35 rush yds, 1 TD 5 rec yds
Justin Forsett: 85 rush yds, 30 rec yards
Torrey Smith: 55 rec yds, 1 TD
Steve Smith: 95 rec yds
Crockett Gillmore: 35 rec yds, 1 TD
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger had arguably the greatest
passing game in NFL history last week. Against what was a tough
Indianapolis defense, he completed 40-of-49 passes for 522 yards
and 6 touchdowns. The Colts were missing their best cornerback
in Vonte Davis, but nevertheless it was a spectacular performance
for Big Ben and the Pittsburgh offense. As usual wide receiver
Antonio Brown led the way with 10 catches for 133 and 2 touchdown
receptions. Brown is on pace for 120 catches for 1,704 yards and
14 touchdowns. Normally here is where I’d say that his pace
is not sustainable but Brown has simply looked uncoverable and
he and Ben have a great thing going. The team also looks like
it has found a dependable second option as rookie Martavis Bryant
has come on strong the last two weeks. The rookie has intriguing
size that the Steelers have lacked at the position for years and
has scored touchdowns in the last two weeks.
The Ravens pass defense has been a “bend but don’t
break” unit this season. They are allowing 256 yards per
game but are only giving up less than 1 passing touchdown per
game on average. They will be tested against the red hot Pittsburgh
passing attack this week.
Running Game Thoughts: With apologies to Arian Foster, Le’Veon
Bell has been the second best running back in the league this
season behind the Cowboys’ DeMarco Murray. Bell is averaging
4.9 yards per carry and also excels in the passing game with 42
receptions for 395 yards. LeGarrette Blount has been worked into
the mix to spell Bell at times but his usage has been becoming
less frequent in recent weeks, as the team has struggled whenever
Bell is on the sidelines.
The Ravens’ run defense has been very strong, so the Steelers
may find it tough to establish any kind of running game this Sunday
Night. The unit is allowing a meager 90.4 rushing yards per game
with only 6 rushing touchdowns surrendered in eight games.
Projections:
Ben
Roethlisberger: 285 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT. 20 rush yds
Le’Veon Bell: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 40 rec yds
LeGarrette
Blount: 25 rush yds
Antonio
Brown: 105 rec yds, 1 TD
Martavis
Bryant: 60 rec yds, 1 TD
Markus
Wheaton: 25 rec yds
Heath
Miller: 40 rec yds
Prediction: Steelers 27, Ravens 24 ^ Top
Jaguars at Bengals
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles
has gone through the typical rookie struggles. His 12 interceptions
leads the league in that category, despite only starting five
games (with a relief appearance in another). On the positive side
he is completing 63% of his passes, despite having an aggressive
downfield approach and has gained 191 yards on the ground showing
the athleticism that was a big part of his success on the college
level. If he can cut down on his turnovers, it’s looking
like the Jaguars made a good choice at the top of this past NFL
draft. Outside of veteran Cecil Shorts, who has missed time with
injuries, Bortles is surrounded by an equally young supporting
cast, with three rookies, Allen Robinson, Maqise Lee and Allen
Huns, all seeing significant playing time when healthy. Robison,
out of Penn State, has been the best of the bunch catching 36
passes for 453 yards and two touchdowns. While he did not time
well at the combine, he’s athletic and a dangerous runner
with the ball in his hands and at 6’3”, 210 pounds
has the size and strength to fight off defenders. Veteran backup
tight end Clay Harbor has done a nice job filling in for starter
Marcedes Lewis and has likely earned a role in this offense even
after Lewis returns, as he’s been a nice security blanket
for Bortles.
The Bengals will present a fierce challenge for the turnover prone
Jaguar passing attack. The Bengals were looking like one the league’s
most fearsome defenses during their 3-0 start to the season, but
were then torched by Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck, but
came back last week to shut down familiar foe Joe Flacco. On the
season they are now allowing 258.4 passing yards per game. It
does not bode well for Bortles that his opponent has more interceptions
(9) then touchdown passes allowed (8).
Running Game Thoughts: The Jaguars signed former Adrian Peterson
backup, Toby Gerhart, to be their bellcow back this offseason,
but you know what they say about the best made plans of mice and
men? Gerhart suffered a bad ankle sprain in Week 1 and played
through it but was very ineffective. When he did finally miss
a game former Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson came in and
revitalized the rushing attack. In his two starts Robinson has
100 yards in each, showing big play ability. At under 200 pounds
and thinly built it remains to be seen if Robinson can maintain
his success as a feature back, but as of now it doesn’t
look like Gerhart will take his job back, barring injury, any
time soon. The Jaguars offensive line is subpar, and Robinson’s
speed and quickness hides the shortcomings better than the lumbering
Gerhart’s skill set can.
The Bengals are ahead of only Green Bay, St. Louis and Cleveland
when it comes to stopping the run, allowing 140.7 rushing yards
per game while yielding 8 rushing touchdowns. The Jaguars would
be wise to look to establish the run and protect their young quarterback
against this defense. However, for inexplicable reasons the Jaguars
have generally abandoned the run early, even in games where they
weren’t far behind.
Projections:
Blake Bortles: 235 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 55 rush yd
Toby Gerhart: 35 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Denard Robinson: 85 rush yds, 20 rec yards
Allen Robinson: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Allen Hurns: 45 rec yds
Clay Harbor: 35 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton’s passing statistics have
not looked good without his star wide receiver A.J. Green, but
the team did at least manage to pull out a win for the first time
in four weeks in Week 8. Dalton threw for 266 yards with an interception
and no touchdowns, but his day was salvaged for his fantasy owners
with 2 rushing touchdowns in the game. Green has not played since
Week 5 after suffering a toe injury in practice during the following
week, but is optimistic about returning in Week 9. However, his
status is “still up in the air” according the head
coach Marvin Lewis. Dalton’s success has long been dependant
on Green’s athletic ability, and the team is down to marginal
talents like Mohamed Sanu, Brandon Tate, Dane Sanzenbacher and
Jermaine Gresham on the receiving end of his passes with Marvin
Jones and Tyler Eifert also injured. Running back Giovani Bernard
(hip) adds playmaking ability out of the backfield, but surprisingly
only has 8 receptions in the games without Green.
The Jaguars’ pass defense has not been strong this season,
so perhaps the Bengals can survive another week without Green.
They are allowing 267.4 yards per game and have yielded 13 passing
touchdowns with only 3 interceptions.
Running Game Thoughts: Giovani Bernard suffered a hip injury
that forced him out of last week’s game in the fourth quarter
and he hasn’t practiced all week. Bernard has struggled
carrying the ball, averaging under 3.5 yards per carry in five
out of the seven games he’s played so far. He’s also
on pace to have less receptions than he did last year despite
an increase in snaps this season. He’s still a dynamic back
and is capable of exploding as he did in Week 6 against Carolina,
and should be more heavily involved in the passing game in order
to get him out in space and make plays. Rookie Jeremy Hill has
had an up and down rookie season thus far, but has shown good
power and inside running ability and would benefit from an increase
in carries. If Bernard is unable to go in this game, he’d
likely excel in a feature back role. Offensive coordinator Hue
Jackson stated all offseason that the Bengals would be a run based
offense but so far the team’s o-line struggles have not
made that as a beneficial strategy. With their defense finding
its way back to the level it was on early in the season, with
A.J. Green possibly out once again, and with a struggling Jaguar
offense in town, this could be a week to rely heavily on the team’s
running game.
Projections:
Andy Dalton: 245 pass yds, 2 TDs, 5 rush yds
Jeremy Hill: 90 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Brandon Tate: 30 rec yds
Mohamed Sanu: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Gresham: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Prediction: Bengals 34, Jaguars 20 ^ Top
Redskins at Vikings
- (Marcoccio)
Passing Game Thoughts: Robert Griffin
III is expected to start for the Redskins for the first time since
dislocating his ankle in Week 2. Griffin was close to returning
last week, but Head Coach Jay Gruden has stated all along that
Griffin will not be back until he’s 100% physically and
mentally recovered. It would be hard to imagine Griffin running
much this week, which takes away a valuable tool on his tool belt,
but it would be hard to imagine that even with RGIII as a pure
pocket passer, the Skins passing attack won’t be much improved
over the Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy led offense. DeSean Jackson,
Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed should all benefit from getting
the stronger armed Griffin back behind center.
Minnesota has been a top 5 pass defense on the season, allowing
only 212.1 yards per game and 13 touchdowns through the air. The
Vikings are second to only the Buffalo Bills in getting to the
quarterback with 25 sacks on the season. Defensive End Everson
Griffin leads the way with 8 sacks and must be accounted for by
a Washington team looking to protect its quarterback.
Running Game Thoughts: Alfred Morris’ rushing production
has slipped each year he’s been in the league. As a rookie
he rushed for 1,610 yards and followed that up with 1,275 rushing
yards as a sophomore. In 2014 he’s on pace to finish with
1,026 rushing yards in Head Coach Jay Gruden’s pass happy
offense. The good news is that he’s on pace to record a
career high in receptions, with the bad news being that he’s
on pace for just 12. Morris is a hard-nosed runner that was a
good fit for the Shanahan zone blocking scheme due to his one
cut and go style, but is not an asset in the passing game making
him a classic square peg in the round hole of Gruden’s offense.
The Vikings have played the run reasonably well, allowing 111.6
yards per game and 6 rushing touchdowns on the season, so Morris
will not have an easy task even if the Skins decide that establishing
the run would be beneficial for protecting their quarterback.
Projections:
Robert Griffin III: 265 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 25 rush yds
Alfred Morris: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 5 rec yds
Roy Helu: 25 rush yds, 35 rec yds
DeSean Jackson: 65 rec yds, 1 TD
Pierre Garcon: 45 rec yds
Jordan Reed: 60 rec yds
Niles Paul: 25 rec yds
Passing
Game Thoughts: Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t lit the world
on fire since taking over as the team’s starting quarterback,
but at least he’s looked composed in the pocket and has
been fairly accurate. He doesn’t look to run, but has shown
above average scrambling abilities, but at 6’2” and
210 pounds his body isn’t built to take many open field
hits. Staying in the pocket has also exposed him to big hits however,
as Bridgewater has been sacked 14 times in the last three games
behind a banged up offensive line. Bridgewater finally looked
for dynamic second-year wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson last
week connecting on 6-of-12 passes for 86 yards. Patterson will
need to be more involved in the offense as Bridgewater can use
all the help he can get with tight end Kyle Rudolph still sidelined.
The Washington pass defense has been a top 10 unit this season,
allowing only 219 passing yards per game but have yielded 17 passing
touchdowns, a figure only exceeded by the New York Jets.
Running Game Thoughts: Raw but dynamic rookie Jerick McKinnon
has surpassed lumbering veteran Matt Asiata for the majority of
the carries in the running game, but still takes a back seat on
most passing downs and at the goal-line. McKinnon has averaged
5.2 yards per carry. He is solidly built at 5’9” and
208 pounds, and while he has excellent speed and quickness, he’s
also able to bounce off of tacklers and gain yards after contact
at a rate as good as any running back in the league. The combination
of McKinnon and Asiata, while a pale comparison to suspended super
star Adrian Peterson, looks like it can be an effective pairing
going forward as teams will need to prepare for two very different
running styles. Asiata’s superior blocking and pass catching
skills and strong goal-line running will keep him on the field,
but the rookie has been dominating the touches more and more each
week. Both backs should potentially be decent starters against
an average Washington run defense for fantasy teams facing bye
week issues.
Projections:
Teddy Bridgewater: 245 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 15 rush yds
Matt Asiata: 25 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds
Jerick McKinnon: 95 rush yds, 15 rec yds
Greg Jennings: 45 rec yds
Cordarrelle Patterson: 55 rec yds, 35 rush yds
Jarius Wright: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Chase Ford: 20 rec yds
Prediction: Vikings 23, Redskins 17 ^ Top
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