Passing
Game Thoughts: Those fantasy owners who hopped back on
the Marcus Mariota bandwagon after his 371-yard, four-touchdown
performance against the Saints were served a dose of reality after
the rookie managed only 185 yards without a score last week against
the Panthers. Such is life for rookie quarterbacks and another
reason why they should usually be avoided in fantasy (unless they
are facing New Orleans). Mariota isn’t a bad play this week
due to the match-up, but the only Titan that fantasy owners should
be confident in is Delanie Walker. WR Kendall Wright (knee) will
miss his third straight game leaving Harry Douglas and rookie
Dorial Green-Beckham as the starting wideouts.
The tight end is the team’s leading receiver and is eighth
at his position in fantasy points, leading to TE1 status against
Jacksonville, who is 24th in the league against the pass, 22nd
in passing scores surrendered, 20th in sacks, 21st in yards per
attempt allowed, and 25th in interceptions. They have allowed
the fifth-most FPts/G to quarterbacks and 12th-most to tight ends,
but rank 16th in the 32-team NFL in FPts/G permitted to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Antonio Andrews
had been trending upwards and was getting increased fantasy love
the past few weeks, for good reason. Then he went and blew it
all with a hideous 11-carry, eight-yard performance last week
against Carolina. Andrews may have a decent game or two down the
stretch, but he could just as easily replicate what he did against
the Panthers, and fantasy owners shouldn’t trust him against
the Jaguars. Dexter McCluster spells Andrews but with a ceiling
of 50 yards combined and an occasional TD, he’s a low-end
flex consideration at best.
Jacksonville has the NFL’s number six run defense, and no
team has given up fewer yards per carry than the Jags, but they
still rank 22nd in rushing scores permitted. They’ve also
allowed a lot of receiving yards (501), to opposing runners which
is why they have given up the ninth-most FPts/G in the league
to backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jacksonville continues to surge in relevance
for fantasy owners after years of near invisibility, with quarterback
Blake Bortles and wideouts Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns in the
top-10 in fantasy scoring at their respective positions. Hurns
is the biggest story, having caught a touchdown in each of his
past seven games, but Robinson hasn’t been forgotten, having
snared a touchdown in four of his last five. Bortles has been
inconsistent of late in terms of yards, and has thrown at least
one pick in five straight games, but has also thrown multiple
touchdowns in each of those contests. He’s probably along
the lines of a QB2 this week, though each of the aforementioned
wideouts should be in fantasy lineups as they take on the Titans.
Tennessee is third in the league against the pass, 16th in passing
scores ceded, fifth in sacks, and 11th in interceptions, but just
five teams are giving up more yards per pass attempt. The Titans
have also allowed three rushing scores by quarterbacks, which
is part of the reason why they have given up the 11th-most FPts/G
to players at that position, while they’ve also allowed
the seventh-most FPts/G to tight ends but the 12th-fewest to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie T.J.
Yeldon has been decent at times this season for the Jaguars, but
with just one rushing score and only two games with more than
70 yards on the ground, he’s been mostly an afterthought
for fantasy owners. The Alabama product, who is nursing a foot
injury, should continue to ride fantasy benches this week against
Tennessee. He was in a walking boot earlier this week and didn’t
practice much this week. Given his questionable tag, fantasy owners
should look elsewhere for their RB2.
The Titans are 21st in the NFL in run defense, and 25th in rushing
scores permitted, but rank 10th in yards per rush allowed. However,
no team in the league has given up fewer receiving yards to opposing
backs, and they are one of five squads who has yet to allow a
touchdown reception to a running back, which helps explain why
they have given up the sixth-fewest FPts/G to players at that
position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck will be sidelined for about
a month due to an abdominal injury and lacerated kidney, meaning
Matt Hasselbeck will get the nod under center for Indianapolis
as they travel to Atlanta. He’s played reasonably well in
a pair of other games this season totaling roughly 18 fantasy
points in each (standard scoring leagues), but there is little
reason to expect big numbers from the veteran. The Colts’
passing game as a whole has been a disappointment for fantasy
owners, and more of the same should be expected this week against
an Atlanta unit that has been stingy versus opposing aerial attacks.
The Falcons are 19th in the NFL against the pass and have the
fewest sacks in all of football, but are fifth in touchdown throws
allowed, 10th in yards per attempt given up, and seventh in interceptions.
They have allowed the sixth-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks and
the fourth-fewest to wide receivers, but just four teams have
permitted more FPts/G to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Even without
a 100-yard outing on his resume this season, Frank Gore has been
a worthy RB2/flex option on a weekly basis. In his last contest,
against the Broncos, the 32-year-old veteran scored a touchdown
and ran for 83 yards, but it took him 28 carries to get there.
Gore’s status as a secondary fantasy back should remain
unchanged this week as he takes on a Falcons defense that has
allowed plenty of rushing scores. Atlanta has the NFL’s
third-ranked run defense, and is allowing the fourth-fewest yards
per carry, but only Detroit has given up more scores on the ground,
and only New Orleans has allowed more receiving yards to running
backs. So despite keeping the yardage totals in check, the Falcons
are still allowing the seventh-most FPts/G in the league to running
backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In Atlanta’s last game, a 17-16 loss
to the 49ers, Matt Ryan doled out a familiar stat line, which
included plenty of passing yards (303), but just a single touchdown
throw. In the Falcons’ nine games this year, Ryan has tossed
multiple touchdowns four times, and doesn’t have a single
contest with more than two passing scores. This has limited the
fantasy output for any player involved in the Atlanta passing
attack with the exception of Julio Jones, who is having a remarkable
season with 80 catches and over 1,000 yards but just six touchdowns.
Still, Ryan has produced enough to maintain a low-end QB1 status,
and should be starting (along with Jones, obviously) for fantasy
owners this week against a middling Colts pass defense. Indianapolis
is 28th in the league against the pass, 16th in passing scores
allowed, 22nd in yards per attempt given up, and 30th in sacks,
though they are seventh in interceptions. In terms of fantasy
points, they are among the 10 worst teams in FPts/G allowed to
quarterbacks, wideouts, and tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: During Atlanta’s
previously mentioned loss to the 49ers, Devonta Freeman had his
worst game of the season on the ground, with only 12 yards on
12 carries. Thankfully, he saved his fantasy owners some misery
by picking up 68 yards and a touchdown via reception. Freeman
remains the top running back in fantasy, and an obvious RB1 against
a below average Indy rush defense. The Colts are 22nd in the NFL
against the run, 25th in rushing scores permitted, 13th in yards
per carry allowed, and have given up the 12th-most FPts/G to opposing
running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick recently had surgery on
his left (non-throwing) thumb, but he should be good to go this
weekend, which matters because he’s the one throwing the
touchdown passes to Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. Decker has
caught a touchdown in all but one of the games he’s played
this year, while Marshall has scores in six of his nine contests.
Marshall gets more targets and has nearly 200 more yards than
Decker, but each is among the top-12 at their position in fantasy
scoring, and each is a solid option this week despite a tough
match-up against the Texans.
Houston has the league’s fifth-ranked pass defense and rank
16th in passing scores surrendered, 15th in yards per attempt
allowed, 17th in interceptions, and 10th in sacks. They rank a
little better than average in FPts/G allowed to both quarterbacks
and tight ends, and have permitted the 10th-fewest FPts/G to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: After struggling
for a few games, Chris Ivory came to life last week, running for
99 yards and adding 36 more through receptions (though it should
be noted he also lost a fumble). He’s currently fifth among
running backs in fantasy scoring and should continue to be a valuable
asset to fantasy owners, particularly with match-ups such as the
one he has with Houston. The Texans are 25th in the NFL in run
defense, 16th in rushing scores ceded, 24th in yards per carry
allowed, and have given up the 10th-most FPts/G in the league
to opposing running backs. Bilal Powell (ankle) is expected to
back for this contest and should resume his role as the third-down
back.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer had played well since retrieving
the starting quarterback job from the since-jettisoned Ryan Mallett,
and eked his way into the minds of fantasy owners, if not necessarily
their rosters. Unfortunately, a concussion will sideline him this
week, and T.J. Yates will take over. He isn’t a fantasy
option, so owners will only be interested in whether or not the
signal-caller can continue to deliver touchdown throws to DeAndre
Hopkins, like the game-winner he tossed to his wideout last week
against the Bengals. Hopkins missed practice on Wednesday but
should be able to play on Sunday, and is a WR1 regardless of who
his quarterback is or what opponent he’s facing, which this
week is DB Darrelle Revis and the Jets.
The Jets have been solid against the pass this season, ranking
ninth in the NFL in pass defense, 13th in passing scores given
up, seventh in interceptions, and 16th in sacks while holding
opposing quarterbacks to the league’s lowest completion
percentage. New York has given up the 12th-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks,
and while they’ve been just above average in FPts/G allowed
to wideouts, they’ve permitted the ninth-fewest FPts/G to
tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: There is
absolutely nothing to see here, and fantasy owners can confidently
ignore whoever Houston plops in as their running back, unless
proven otherwise, which seems unlikely. Alfred Blue had one huge
game back in September but has otherwise been invisible, and his
match-up this week with the Jets is even more of a reason to ignore
him. Chris Polk has been limited this week with a hamstring injury
so it will likely be Jonathan Grimes picking up the change-of-pace
work.
New York has the league’s top run defense, and there is
no argument to be made otherwise, at least statistically. No team
is giving up fewer rushing yards per game or has allowed fewer
rushing scores, and they rank ninth in yards per carry given up.
The only reason the Jets are allowing the third-fewest FPts/G
to running backs instead of the fewest is because they have permitted
three receiving touchdowns to players out of the backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins had a monster game last week,
with 324 yards and four touchdowns, though there’s a footnote
– he put up those numbers against the Saints, who are redefining
the definition of awfulness when it comes to pass defense. Don’t
let that performance or his three touchdowns against Tampa cloud
your judgment, as those are his only two games with multiple touchdown
throws this season. Cousins does have some viable weapons, with
a now fully healthy DeSean Jackson primed to move up the fantasy
ranks, and tight end Jordan Reed among the top-five in fantasy
scoring at his position.
Neither Jackson nor Reed has a prime match-up, but both are usable
this week against Carolina. The Panthers are 11th in the NFL against
the pass, rank fifth in touchdown throws given up, second in yards
per attempt allowed, sixth in sacks, and first in interceptions.
They have surrendered the eighth-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks
and the fifth-fewest to tight ends, but are squarely in the middle
of the league in terms of FPts/G given up to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: The Washington
run game has been a huge disappointment from a fantasy perspective,
as Alfred Morris has just two games with at least 65 rushing yards
and still hasn’t found the end zone, while rookie Matt Jones
has been more productive overall but inconsistent. The timeshare
these two find themselves in make them unpractical fantasy options,
and both should be kept on the sidelines against the Panthers
and their average run defense. Carolina is 14th in the league
in run defense, 16th in rushing scores allowed, and 17th in yards
per carry permitted. With rankings so similar, it makes sense
that they are 17th in FPts/G surrendered to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton continues to be a source of controversy,
at least to football fans who think touchdown celebrations will
corrupt the world’s children. Fantasy owners have no such
qualms with an asset as valuable as Newton. He isn’t going
to wow fantasy owners with his passing numbers – he threw
for 217 yards and one score last week against the Titans –
but if he can avoid turnovers, get the ball into the hands of
Greg Olsen, and run the ball, there’s little to complain
about. Newton and Olsen are the only two Panthers involved in
the passing game with fantasy value, but they have plenty of it,
with each among the top five in scoring at their position, and
each a weekly starter no matter the opponent, which is the Redskins
this week.
Washington is 12th in the NFL against the pass and 13th in passing
scores permitted, but is 21st in interceptions, 23rd in yards
per attempt surrendered, and 26th in sacks. They have allowed
the 10th-fewest FPts/G in the league to quarterbacks and the fifth-fewest
to tight ends, but just six teams have ceded more FPts/G to opposing
wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: Cam Newton’s
prowess on the ground is well known – he has six rushing
scores on the season, including one in each of his last two games
– but Jonathan Stewart has also been productive. He didn’t
get more than 18 carries through his first four games of the season,
but has carried the ball between 20 and 24 times in each of his
last five games. During those contests Stewart has run for 75
or more yards on four occasions while finding the end zone four
times, and become a more valuable fantasy asset in the process.
Stewart isn’t likely to have many big games, but should
continue to be a decent source of points, and isn’t that
what a RB2 does? Consider him just that this week against Washington.
There is only one team in the league that is allowing at least
5.0 yards per carry – the Redskins. They are 30th in the
league against the run, but are somehow seventh in rushing touchdowns
surrendered, which is why they are 16th in FPts/G allowed to running
backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Quarterback Nick Foles who has not surpassed
200 passing yards since Week 1, was pulled last week for backup
Case Keenum and it was announced early in the week that Foles
has been benched permanently. Keenum has a career 2-8 record as
a starter with Houston and the Rams, but head coach Jeff Fisher
is hoping he can provide a spark to a passing offense that has
been dreadful. The Rams’ receivers have not helped matters,
and their best overall wide-out Brian Quick has not been involved
enough after missing most of the offseason. So, while Foles is
being used as the fall guy it hasn’t all been his fault.
With that said, the change can’t really hurt and Keenum
did provide some excitement as a rookie with the Texans when he
threw for 1,760 yards and 9 touchdowns with 6 interceptions while
adding 72 yards and another score on the ground in eight games.
Tavon Austin has been the team’s best weapon in the passing
game. He has been effective in the short screen game gaining chunks
of yards after the catch and as a deep threat as well. Don’t
expect miraculous changes, but also don’t be surprised with
a jump in the overall passing game for at least this week.
Not only could the “new blood” spark the passing attack,
but facing a Baltimore pass defense that has yielded big numbers
should help as well. On the season the Ravens are allowing 271
passing yards per game and have allowed 18 passing touchdowns
with only 4 interceptions in nine games this season. This is a
favorable matchup on paper, but there is of course the risk of
Keenum falling flat on his face.
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley
has been everything the Rams hoped for when they used the 10th
overall pick in the draft on him this past May. He’s the
first rookie running back ever to rush for more than 125 yards
in four consecutive games and has carried the offense since he’s
been back from his ACL recovery. Fisher’s motivation in
replacing Foles likely has something to do with the running game
as well, as teams are starting to realize that all they need to
do is stack the box to stop the Rams. Gurley has 52 total yards
and a touchdown on the Rams’ first drive last week, but
was then slowed down by a Bears’ defense that loaded up
to stop the run. Once the Bears got out to a big lead the Rams
were forced to abandon the run anyway. Gurley is a monster at
6’1’ and 227 pounds with elite level speed. He is
already arguably the best running back in the league and will
be the focal part of this offense, but the Rams will have to have
some semblance of a passing game or Gurley will be fighting even
more of an uphill battle each week.
The Ravens run defense is still one of the best in the league
and are capable of making life difficult for Gurley even under
the protection of a great passing game, so the Rams cannot afford
to be one dimensional on Sunday. Through eight weeks the Ravens
are allowing only 98.7 rushing yards per game with 5 rushing scores.
They will obviously be focused on stopping the run, and Gurley
will need to step up to the challenge or the Rams’ season
will slip away.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco managed to throw for over 300
yards with 3 touchdowns despite the Ravens starting Kamar Aiken
and Chris Givens as their top wide receivers last week. He did
also turn the ball over three times, with two interceptions and
a fumble, but considering what he is working with he deserves
some credit. Tight end Crockett Gillmore just may be the most
dangerous pass catcher at Flacco’s disposal which should
tell you just how dire the situation is in Baltimore. The 6’6”
product out of Colorado State caught all four passes thrown his
way including a 10-yard touchdown. Fellow tight end, rookie Maxx
Williams and Givens were the other two receivers at the end of
Flacco touchdown passes. Givens showed real promise as a rookie
in St. Louis before falling out of favor in subsequent seasons
and came to Baltimore after an in season trade between the two
teams. The speedster adds a dimension that has been lacking all
season and he fits in well with the strong armed Flacco. His role
could grow more and more as the season moves on.
The Ravens’ competition level steps up this week as they
face the Rams’ top 5 defense. The Rams are allowing 222.4
passing yards per game and have only given up a league lowest
8 touchdown passes. Expect the Ravens to send Givens deep a few
times this game as he seeks “revenge” against a team
lacking weapons in its own right that gave up on him.
Running Game Thoughts: Justin Forsett
is having a disappointing season and the 30-year-old journeyman’s
time in the spotlight may be coming to an end. Forsett totaled
64 yards in last week’s loss and hasn’t made the highlight
type runs that were a part of his magical season of 2014 where
he surprised the rest of the league with a career year. His rookie
backup, Buck Allen, has looked better in his limited carries and
could be worked in more to see if he could handle a lead back
role in 2016. Allen isn’t a dynamic runner but runs with
power and has enough agility to keep the chains moving. In a lost
season for the Ravens, it couldn’t hurt to audition him
down the stretch.
The Rams have been a tough run defenses allowing 109.4 yards per
game and only 6 scores on the ground. Since the Ravens haven’t
looked to run the ball much anyway recently, the Rams’ ability
to stop the run shouldn’t be much of a factor in this contest.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Head coach Mike McCarthy said this week
that Aaron Rodgers is “trying too hard.” That statement
was offered to explain why the Packers’ passing attack has
struggled in recent weeks. Last week the Packers shockingly lost
at home to the Detroit Lions is a game where Rodgers threw for
333 yards and 2 touchdowns but completed only 35 of 61 passes.
Davante Adams was targeted an incredible 21 times but only managed
10 catches for 79 yards. Some of that was due to Rodger’s
uncharacteristic inaccuracy, but Adams also failed to gain separation
on many of his routes and let the ball bounce off his body on
several occasions. The 6’1” 215 pound Adams will need
to be more efficient going forward for the offense to break out
of its funk. The Packers have received good production from their
second year tight end Richard Rodgers, who scored again last week
but veterans James Jones and Randall Cobb have been struggling
during the losing streak. The Packers travel to play the first
place Vikings this week and if the Packers cannot halt their three-game
losing streak, this season may spiral out of control quickly for
a team many pundits picked to go to the Super Bowl.
The Vikings’ pass defense is an above average unit, especially
at home, allowing 228 yards per game and 11 touchdown passes on
the season. The Vikings haven’t been able to force many
turnovers which is something that could come back to haunt them
now that they start facing better competition in the second half
of the season. Minnesota would love for the Packers to get off
to another slow start which would likely make Rodgers start pressing
even more, If they could force the Packers into a few mistakes
it would be a great way for the Vikings to hold onto their division
lead.
Running Game Thoughts: Eddie Lacy
missed last week’s game with a groin injury, but veteran
James Starks was expected to start anyway according to McCarthy.
Starks didn’t do much to put a stranglehold on the lead
back role rushing for 42 yards on 15 carries but did add 54 yards
on 6 catches. Lacy should make it back this week and the Packers
will likely use both backs to wear down a strong Vikings’
defense. For now, Starks seems like the safer option for those
who own both backs, as McCarthy has stated that he has earned
the starting honors. Lacy will need to return to his 2014 form
or risk irrelevance down the stretch.
The Vikings will present a stiff challenge to the Packer run game
as they are allowing only 108.6 rushing yards per contest on the
season with only 5 scores on the ground. The Packers really need
their running game to get going, as it will only make life easier
for Rodgers.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Vikings 7-2 record has masked the fact
that Teddy Bridgewater has not built on his productive rookie
season, and is arguably actually regressing during his sophomore
campaign. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s antiquated
offensive scheme does not play to Bridgewater’s strengths.
Bridgewater is a smart accurate quarterback that could master
the short quick passing offense that is en vogue through the league,
but the Vikings prefer to run the ball and throw the ball downfield
– “old school” stuff. That of course does not
play into the strengths of the slightly built and weak armed Bridgewater.
Bridgewater is only averaging 201.1 passing yards per game and
only has 7 passing touchdowns on the season. On the positive side
he has continued to impress with his mobility and has only thrown
6 interceptions on the season. Rookie Stefon Diggs who had become
the Vikings only true passing game threat has slowed down the
last two weeks after putting up 25 catches for 419 yards and 2
touchdowns during his first four games of heavy action. He’s
only caught 5 balls for 88 yards since and as a result, Bridgewater’s
numbers have declined even further. Mike Wallace and Kyle Rudolph
have not contributed enough to be fantasy considertations.
The Packers’ pass defense is allowing 255.3 yards per game
with 12 touchdowns against thus far making this an average matchup
for the Vikings’ passing attack. Of course the Vikings are
likely not heading into this game looking to put up big passing
numbers. Their game plans all season have revolved around running
the ball and playing tough defense, a formula that has worked
very well. Expect more of the same, since that strategy will also
help limit the time that Rodgers gets to try and turn things around
for his offense.
Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson carried the Vikings’
offense on his strong shoulders last week as the team went into
the Black Hole of Oakland and came out with a win. Peterson rushed
for 203 yards including an 80-yard touchdown run to seal the game.
The 30-year-old Peterson is not showing any signs of age and is
still showing big play ability averaging 5.7 yards per carry over
his last three games. He has 961 rushing yards and 5 scores on
the season, despite the opposition knowing that he is the focal
point of the Vikings offensive scheme. The Vikings have smartly
built their offensive game plan around AP and he’s delivered.
The Packers are a below average run defense, allowing 116.2 yards
per game and 8 rushing touchdowns on the season. Ideally the Vikings
will be looking to exploit this weakness and run the ball which
would also, as said earlier, help keep Aaron Rodgers off the field.
This of course shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Broncos Head coach Gary Kubiak had the unenviable
task of benching Peyton Manning in the same game where he passed
Brett Favre for the most passing yards in NFL history. After the
game, Kubiak tried to protect the legend by blaming himself for
putting his quarterback on the field when he wasn’t completely
healthy. This was followed by an Adam Schefter report stating
Manning was playing with a torn plantar fasciitis injury during
the game. So, Kubiak is spared from actually deciding to sit the
future Hall of Famer for an unproven Brock Osweiler, but the results
are nevertheless the same as the youngster will be starting this
week while Manning recovers. The strange part is that the passing
offense is likely to be much more effective now. Not only is Osweiler
better suited to run Kubiak’s roll out based offense, but
his arm is strong enough to take advantage of Emmanuel Sanders
and Demaryius Thomas’ ability to get downfield. Osweiler
completed 14-of-24 passes for 146 yards with a touchdown and an
interception and also scrambled for 18 yards in relief of Manning
last week. Prior to that, the Broncos had been shut out and only
had 36 yards passing on the day. In the preseason he completed
64% of his passes at 7.1 yards per attempt and threw 3 touchdowns
with 1 interception. Despite being 6’7” and 242 pounds
Osweiler is athletic and can move around well. It will be interesting
to see if Osweiler has success over the next couple of games whether
the team goes back to a quarterback that has a 9:17 TD to INT
ratio on the season.
The Bears’ defense has been surprisingly stingy in giving
up yards through the air allowing only 217.8 yards per game but
they haven’t been stingy in allowing teams into their endzone,
giving up 17 passing touchdowns through nine games. Defensive
coordinator Vic Fangio has the unit playing better than anyone
could have realistically expected, but the lack of pass rush and
inability to create turnovers could eventually catch up to them
and could help a young quarterback who is making his NFL debut
as a starter.
Running Game Thoughts: The Broncos’
running game has been horrendous this season despite big talk
about the team becoming a run based attack under Kubiak. Ronnie
Hillman, the speedy veteran, has looked a bit better than the
incumbent C.J. Anderson but neither has found much running room
this season. The Broncos are the 29th ranked rushing attack averaging
only 86 yards per game. The lack of any running game also hurts
the play action based Kubiak passing game. The team will have
to hope the inexperienced linemen up front get it together soon,
as the team cannot depend on the defense to win games for them
every week.
The Broncos catch a break this week at least as the Bears are
middle of the pack in run defense allowing 118.6 yards per game
on the ground. Strangely enough they have only allowed 3 rushing
touchdowns on the season but have also allowed 3 receiving scores
by RBs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The much maligned Jay Cutler is playing
as well as he has in years and has the Bears winning games no
one expected they could. He has not completely eliminated turnovers
(5 interceptions and 2 fumbles) in eight games, but he has done
a better job protecting the football and has 13 touchdown passes
on the season. Last week his 3 touchdown passes came from some
unexpected sources that made plays for their quarterback after
the catch - veteran backup tight end Zach Miller (twice) and rookie
running back Jeremy Langford. Look for the team to continue playing
in a conservative fashion, as it’s the John Fox way and
it’s working right now, but Cutler can still be an effective
fantasy quarterback during good matchups and wide receiver Alshon
Jeffrey has been a target hound and productive player when healthy.
The matchup doesn’t look good matchup on paper. The Broncos
are allowing a league low 182.8 passing yards per game and have
given up a league lowest 8 touchdown passes. Cornerback Aquib
Talib returns from his one-game suspension creating a tough matchup
for Jeffery who is also battling injury. If you have better options
sitting him is advisable.
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie Jeremy
Langford may have made veteran free-agent-to-be Matt Forte expendable
this offseason. Langford has totaled 324 yards and 3 touchdowns
during the Bears last two games in place of the injured Forte.
Langford took a short Cutler pass 83 yards to the house last week
and has excelled in all aspects of the game. It remains to be
seen, but Forte may return this week to crash the party which
will return the rookie to a backup role, but Langford has earned
playing time at the veteran’s expense. It could be as high
as a 60-40 split in favor of Forte going forward, which will come
as a blow to a veteran used to seeing as high as 80 percent of
the work.
The Broncos are also a top 10 run defense, allowing only 94.6
rushing yards per game with 7 rushing scores but were abused by
Charcandrick West of the Chiefs just last week. The defense has
carried the team throughout this season and will need to hunker
down with an inexperienced quarterback now under center.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Raiders passing attack had been hitting
on all cylinders (imagine that) prior to last week’s game
when Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree were slowed down by the
Vikings’ corners and Derek Carr made a few costly mistakes.
Carr still finished with 302 yards and two touchdowns but was
also picked off twice in a losing effort at home. On the season
Carr is averaging 266.2 yards per game and has an impressive 21:6
TD-to-INT ratio. Cooper and Crabtree have been the focal points
of the passing game most weeks and both are putting up fantastic
numbers. It’s only recently that Carr has started using
other options like Andre Holmes and tight end Clive Walford making
the offense even more difficult to account for. Carr has made
a huge leap from the dinking and dunking he did as a rookie where
he produced a subpar 5.5 yards per pass attempt. This season he’s
actually increased his completion percentage despite going down
the field far more often evidenced by his current 7.6 yards per
attempt. This should be a bounce back week for Carr’s wide-outs.
The Lions defense has struggled all season. The unit is allowing
260.1 passing yards per game with 16 touchdown passes. They have
shown an ability to get to the passer with 23 sacks but that hasn’t
resulted in generating turnovers for the Lions. Darius Slay may
shadow Cooper leaving Crabtree with the best matchup against the
Lions secondary.
Running Game Thoughts: Latavius
Murray was handed the starting job this offseason and has not
disappointed. He is averaging 75.3 yards per game on the ground
and has scored three times, while also contributing in the passing
game (26-133). He is a tall upright runner who takes his share
of big hits, so health is always a concern (he suffered a concussion
earlier in the season but did not miss any time), but his power
and speed combination should keep him among the league rushing
leaders if he does stay healthy.
The Lions run defense has been very poor during the course of
the 2015 season. The team is now allowing 124.1 yards per game
on the ground and has yielded a league worst 14 rushing touchdowns.
This should be a nice matchup for the Raiders’ running game
facing a Lions defense giving up the fifth most fantasy points
to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: New offensive coordinator, Jim Bob Cooter,
had the bye week to install his “return to the basics”
offense after replacing Joe Lombardi prior to the team’s
Week 8 game. While the results were not earth shattering, Matt
Stafford did have one of his better games of the season. Against
a tough Packer defense on the road, Stafford threw for 246 yards
with 2 touchdowns and an interception in a rare Lions’ win
at Lambeau Field. Calvin Johnson sprained an ankle in Week 8 and
is still not completely healthy but played through it last week
and should be on the field again this week. It was two players
not likely in any fantasy starting line-ups, Lance Moore and Brandon
Pettigrew, catching the touchdown passes last week, but the change
in offensive play-calling should benefit Johnson, and veteran
Golden Tate who can both get behind a defense. Look for their
numbers to improve this week.
Before facing a weak Minnesota passing attack in Week 10, Oakland
had allowed at least 250 yards passing yards in every game this
season. On average they are still allowing 293.2 yards per game
and have given up 16 passing touchdowns. This should be the week
for the Lions’ passing attack to get back on track.
Running Game Thoughts: The Lions have been the worst rushing offense
in the league this season, averaging only 66.9 yards per game
on the ground. Ameer Abdullah created a lot of buzz this preseason,
but has been a non factor. Once again this week, there’s
chatter about getting Abdullah more involved but he’s done
very little with the chances that he’s gotten and his fumbling
issues have kept his usage low. Veteran Joique Bell spent the
off-season recovering from multiple injuries and surgeries and
barely averaged over one yard per carry last week after looking
like he was getting his legs back under him. The line play has
been poor thus far and at this point in the season, counting on
a Lions running back seems like a dangerous fantasy proposition.
Making matters worse, the Raiders have been extremely strong against
the run outside of last week when Adrian Peterson posted over
200 yards alone. Prior to that game they had limited the opposition
to 82.9 yards per game on the season a number that rose to 115.3
afterwards.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Week 10 looked like it was going to be a
dangerous matchup for anyone in the Kansas City offense, but an
epic meltdown from Denver quarterback Peyton Manning allowed the
Chiefs offense to control the clock and turn in a dominant victory.
Of course, being up multiple scores early in the game didn’t
leave much room for quarterback Alex Smith and the passing game
to get things going, but the unit was decent enough with Smith
throwing for 204 yards and a touchdown while avoiding any turnovers
against an excellent Denver defense. Although Smith has been in
double digits for fantasy points in every game except one this
season, his upside is lacking. He has just two games of 20 or
more fantasy points on the year and those two contests were the
only ones where he threw for more than one touchdown. Because
of this, Smith remains a reliable but not very exciting QB2 for
most formats. His top receiver, Jeremy Maclin, has also fallen
out of fantasy good graces as he has not topped 50 yards receiving
since Week 5, while scoring just one touchdown over that span.
Meanwhile, tight end Travis Kelce, the team’s only other
viable option in the passing game, has continued to produce solid
TE1 numbers, but has not had any big breakout games since his
Week 1 explosion where he had 106 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
In fact, Kelce has scored just one touchdown since Week 1. Still,
he has made between four-to-six receptions in all but one game
this season and that makes him a reliable starter, particularly
in PPR formats, at a position with a ton of fluctuation.
In Week 11, the Chiefs passing game will be against a Chargers
defense that have been quite poor against opposing quarterbacks
in recent weeks. The Chargers have allowed at least 17 fantasy
points (standard scoring) to opposing QB’s in each of their
past four games, including back-to-back 300-plus yard passing
days to the Ravens and Bears, both of whom were missing weapons
in their passing games. The Chargers are coming off of a bye and
certainly have been focusing on this divisional matchup, but their
secondary is very beatable, even for a low-powered passing attack
like the Chiefs. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see
Smith put up one of his better performances of the season, especially
if San Diego gets off to a good start and puts points on the board
early. Smith owns a career 93.2 QB rating against the Chargers
and averages 223.5 yards per game against them – a full
30 yards per game higher than his full career average. Still,
Maclin is not an overly exciting option right now given his lack
of success in recent weeks, so he should probably remain on your
bench unless you’re in a tough spot at your WR3. Kelce can
be deployed as a starting tight end as usual and he does have
an enticing matchup against the Chargers defense which has given
up the four touchdowns to opposing tight ends over their past
three games.
Running Game Thoughts: Jamaal Charles tearing his ACL was supposed
to signal the end of the Kansas City offense in 2015, but Charcandrick
West didn’t get the memo. In fact, West has become a viable
RB1 himself since taking over the starting job. West has taken
at least 20 carries in each of the Chiefs’ past three games
while rushing for a total of 276 yards and scoring a rushing touchdown
in all three contests. He has also been fairly active in the passing
game as he has added 136 yards receiving and a touchdown. These
numbers have been more than any fantasy owner could’ve expected
and what’s better is that they’ve come against some
very tough defenses, especially the Broncos this past week. Only
Lamar Miller has scored more fantasy points (standard scoring)
than West since Week 7.
West’s high production and even higher workload has made
him a must-start option, especially in an excellent matchup like
the one he has here in Week 11 against the Chargers. San Diego
has allowed more points per game to opposing running backs than
any team in the league this season. Their 11 total touchdowns
allowed to the position are also tied for the most in the league.
Better yet, the production hasn’t just come in a couple
of games – it’s been a consistent stream of big production
from just about every running back. They’ve allowed at least
12 fantasy points per game to the position in every game this
season and they’ve given up 20-plus points to the position
in six of their nine games. As long as the Chargers don’t
get out to a huge lead early in this game, West should be a high
level RB1.
Passing
Game Thoughts: One of only two quarterbacks (Tom Brady)
who has already cracked the 3000-yard passing mark already this
season, Philip Rivers has certainly out-produced his preseason
projections here in 2015. Rivers has dealt with injuries to numerous
players in his offense including his top receivers Keenan Allen
and Malcom Floyd along with both of his top tight ends Antonio
Gates and Ladarius Green. In fact, including Allen who is out
for the season, Floyd, Gates and Green have all failed to practice
in any game as of Thursday and are all looking questionable at
best to play. Of the three injured pass catchers, Gates seems
most likely to play, but fantasy owners will need to pay close
attention prior to kickoff. If they all miss the game, Rivers
could again turn to Stevie Johnson to be his top target, along
with running back Danny Woodhead. Johnson made a season-high seven
receptions for 68 yards in Week 9, but he has not scored a touchdown
since all the way back in Week 2.
A weekly starter in most formats at this point, Rivers does have
a tough matchup here in Week 11. He’ll be attempting to
pass against a Kansas City defense that has not allowed multiple
passing touchdowns or over 250 yards passing since Week 5. This
past week, they absolutely humiliated Peyton Manning, who had
struggled all season but looked like he wasn’t even worth
being on an NFL roster against the Chiefs. Kansas City did struggle
early in the season against the pass, but they’ve since
locked down the passing game and Rivers could certainly be in
for a down game in this one, especially if he’s missing
the majority of his top pass catchers.
Running Game Thoughts: The Chargers’ leading running back
this season – at least in terms of touches – has been
rookie Melvin Gordon. Gordon has averaged 15 touches per game,
but his production has certainly not indicated that. Gordon hasn’t
reached double digit fantasy production (standard scoring) in
any game yet this year and he has, shockingly, failed to score
a single touchdown. With Gordon struggling, the Chargers have
turned to veteran pass-catching back Danny Woodhead to make big
plays this season. Woodhead has been excellent this year and ranks
in the top eight at his position in both PPR and non-PPR formats.
Of course, his 46 receptions are second-most among running backs,
so he is certainly more valuable in PPR formats, but his overall
yardage totals and five touchdowns on the year have helped make
him a viable weekly starter in all formats.
Kansas City has been solid against the run so far this year,
having conceded the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing
backs. What’s been even more impressive is that they’ve
been absolutely incredible at keeping running backs out of the
end zone. Aside from their Week 4 meltdown against the Bengals,
the Chiefs have allowed a total of just one rushing touchdown
in their other seven contests combined – and that came this
past week against the Broncos once the game was essentially already
over. With the Chargers struggling to get into the end zone, it
seems likely that the Chiefs will improve upon those defensive
rushing touchdown numbers. Still, Woodhead is the kind of player
who could do damage this week, especially if the Chargers are
without some of their other top targets in the passing game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton has been one of the unexpected
fantasy heroes of the 2015 season, but his strong start hasn’t
exactly carried over since the Bengals’ Week 7 bye. Dalton
threw for a total of 14 touchdowns with only two interceptions
in his first six games, but has only thrown for four touchdowns
with three interceptions over his past three. That includes an
absolute disaster this past week when Dalton and the Bengals fell
short at home against the Texans, losing a game while scoring
just six offensive points. Dalton failed to throw a touchdown
for the first time this year and while he certainly did not benefit
from the numerous drops that his receivers had, Dalton looked
like the “old” Dalton who we remember as being a mediocre
quarterback in previous years.
Dalton will look to get things back on track, but they’ll
have their hands full here in Week 11 as he and the Bengals travel
to Arizona to face a Cardinals defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest
fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Arizona has also held opposing QB’s to fewer than 255 yards
in all but two of their games. With Patrick Peterson likely to
lineup against A.J. Green, there could be an opportunity for Marvin
Jones to show up in this game. Arizona has allowed 11 touchdowns
to opposing receivers on the year and while Peterson has been
one of the best cornerbacks in the league, his fellow members
of the secondary have been beatable, especially for touchdowns.
Tight end Tyler Eifert, who has been one of the breakout players
of 2015, has his worst game of the season this past week with
numerous dropped passes and only 26 yards receiving and he’ll
be looking to get back into the end zone, but it’s worth
considering that the Cardinals are one of the best defenses in
the league against opposing tight ends, having conceded the fourth-fewest
fantasy points per game to the position on the year.
Running Game Thoughts: An offense scoring six points in a game
rarely leads to high fantasy production from running backs and
that’s exactly what happened this past week with the Bengals.
Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill combined for just 51 rushing yards
on 15 carries and while Bernard was able to save what could have
otherwise been a disastrous fantasy day by catching five passes
for 43 yards, both players have been extremely disappointing in
recent weeks. Neither Bernard nor Hill has been in fantasy double
digits (standard scoring) since Week 6. Bernard has been substantially
more valuable in PPR formats due to his 26 receptions on the year,
but that number really isn’t spectacular and it’s
certainly not enough to make fantasy owners overly confident about
starting him.
That trust might be even more difficult to come by this week
when the Bengals duo attempts to run on the Cardinals defense.
Arizona has conceded the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game
to opposing running backs so far this season and they’ve
only allowed five total touchdowns to the position on the year.
Perhaps most terrifying is that the Cardinals have held opposing
running backs to fewer than 100 rushing yards in all but one game
this season which has allowed them to allow the fewest total rushing
yards in the league so far this year. A struggling Bengals running
game and a strong Cardinals run defense likely means low yards
per carry for Hill and Bernard, but Bernard does still have some
value as a Flex option in PPR formats. Arizona has given up 50
receptions to the running back position this year, so Bernard
does have a reasonably high floor in this matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: One of the most balanced teams in the league
this season, the Arizona Cardinals may finally be ready to make
a deep playoff run and a lot of that can be attributed to the
play of veteran quarterback Carson Palmer. Palmer, who has suffered
multiple season ending injuries throughout his career, has seen
a resurgence in 2015, throwing for an impressive 23 touchdowns
with only seven interceptions. His top pass catcher, Larry Fitzgerald,
has also been a monster in 2015, having already exceeded his 2014
totals in receptions, yards and touchdowns through just nine weeks.
Fitzgerald has been a rock solid WR1 throughout the year and should
continue to be that, but the real battle has come behind him on
the depth chart. Young receivers Michael Floyd and John Brown
have been battling through injuries, but they’ve also battled
for looks when they’ve been the field. Brown looked to be
running away with the job early in the year, but with Brown slowed
down with hamstring injuries in both legs, Floyd has really come
on in recent weeks. Floyd has been a monster since Week 6, having
made a total of 19 receptions for 328 yards and five touchdowns
over his past four games. Those numbers have made him a WR1 in
all formats over that stretch and while he’s still firmly
behind Fitzgerald on the target list, he may have taken back his
job opposite Fitzgerald as the team’s second wide receiver.
With that, Brown may now see fewer targets, particularly near
the red zone where the larger-bodied Fitzgerald and Floyd are
more likely to be able to outmatch defenders.
With Brown still nursing a hamstring injury, it would be wise
to sit him at least one more week, but Palmer, Fitzgerald and
Floyd almost certainly need to be rolled out in most formats,
assuming Floyd (hamstring) plays. The unit will be up against
a Bengals defense that has been excellent against opposing passing
games, having conceded just 11 touchdowns on the year while forcing
nine interceptions. They have not given up more than one passing
touchdown to an opposing quarterback since Week 3. It’s
worth considering, though, that they haven’t exactly played
against the best passing games in the league and the Cardinals
have already proven that they can exploit excellent defenses in
previous matchups.
Running Game Thoughts: He’s been up and down from a fantasy
standpoint this season, but the overall results have been undeniable
from veteran running back Chris Johnson. The Cardinals’
starting tailback took over the job early in the season after
an injury to Andre Ellington and has not looked back, rushing
for over 100 yards in four contests. His 734 total rushing yards
put him second in the league, behind only Adrian Peterson. Johnson’s
fantasy production has been a bit limited, however, primarily
due to his lack of usage in the passing game where he’s
made just five receptions on the year, and his lack of effectiveness
near the goal line where he has scored just three touchdowns.
Still, Johnson is getting enough touches to be considered a weekly
starter in most formats.
Johnson had one of his weaker games of the season this past week
when he rushed for just 58 yards on 25 carries against a stout
Seattle defense, but he should find it easier to find room here
in Week 10 as he goes up against the Bengals. Cincinnati ranks
12th in fewest fantasy points per game given up to opposing running
backs, but that’s a much easier matchup than what Johnson
saw against the second-ranked Seahawks. Cincinnati has actually
given up a less-than-stellar 4.6 yards per carry to opposing backs
on the year, which should bode well for Johnson who has been a
yardage monster. Unfortunately, their strength of allowing just
two rushing touchdown on the year might be difficult for Johnson
to overcome as he and the Cardinals haven’t done a great
job of opening up running lanes near the goal line.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Colin Kaepernick era may very well be
over in San Francisco, especially after the team stepped up and
performed with serious heart alongside new quarterback Blaine
Gabbert. Yes, that Blaine Gabbert. The former top-10 NFL Draft
pick got his first start Week 5 of the 2013 season. He was able
to get his first win since all the way back in Week 3 of the 2012
season. Gabbert didn’t play exceptionally well in his first
game, throwing for 185 yards and two touchdowns on 15-of-25 through
the air. He also threw two interceptions on the day.
Gabbert seems to be the 49ers’ quarterback for the foreseeable
future and while that might give the 49ers a better chance to
win some games, it’s not exactly exciting from a fantasy
standpoint. Gabbert could very well be without top wide receiver
Anquan Boldin who has been out since Week 7. Even if Boldin does
play, a matchup against the Seahawks is one of the worst possible
scenarios for this already mediocre offense. The Seahawks have
given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing
quarterbacks and prior to a big game allowed to Carson Palmer
and the Cardinals this past week, the Seahawks had given up a
total of just 221 total passing yards in their previous two contests.
That includes a Week 7 matchup against a Kaepernick-led 49ers
team who had just 124 passing yards and failed to throw a touchdown.
Gabbert and the 49ers did look better for one week, but it’s
far too early to be trusting anyone in this passing game, especially
in this matchup, until we see more.
Running Game Thoughts: After injuries to both Carlos Hyde and
Reggie Bush had the 49ers scrambling to find running back depth,
most believed that the newly-signed Pierre Thomas would see significant
playing time against the Falcons in Week 10. That wasn’t
the case, however, as Thomas touched the ball just four times.
Not only was that not enough to lead the team, but it wasn’t
even enough to be second. Kendall Gaskins got seven touches, but
it was fellow new signee, Shaun Draughn, who got the majority
of opportunities. Draughn accumulated a total of 96 yards on 20
total touches – by far the most productive game that a 49ers
back other than Carlos Hyde has had so far this season.
Hyde is once again expected to sit this week, which should lead
to another heavy workload for Draughn. One player to keep an eye
on, however, is Travaris Cadet, who took Thomas’ roster
spot earlier this week and may very well overtake Thomas’
role as the team’s primary passing down back. Cadet quietly
made 38 receptions in limited playing time as a member of the
Saints in 2014 and does have some legit pass catching ability.
With the 49ers not expected to be very competitive in this difficult
matchup against an excellent Seahawks defense, this offense could
very well be in a higher-than-usual number of passing downs, which
could lead to decent day for Cadet in PPR formats. The Seahawks
have given up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing
running backs this season, but if there’s a place for running
backs to find room, it might very well be in the short passing
game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drafted as the No. 3 fantasy quarterback
heading into the season, Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson has
to be considered one of the biggest busts in the league so far
this season. Week 10 was more of the same from the former Super
Bowl-winning QB as he threw for just 240 yards, one touchdown
and an interception. Wilson has thrown for just 10 touchdowns
on the season along with seven interceptions and he has not exceeded
300 yards through the air in any game. Worse yet, he’s only
thrown multiple touchdowns in one game and that came all the way
back in Week 2. If it weren’t for his 355 rushing yards
– second most among quarterbacks – we could be talking
about Wilson as being in the 20’s among quarterback scorers.
Even with his rushing, though, he’s only 14th and his receivers
have certainly suffered because of it. Tight end Jimmy Graham,
the team’s huge offseason trade acquisition, ranks just
ninth in the league at his position in total fantasy points and
he has not been in the end zone since Week 3. The only viable
fantasy option at wide receiver for the Seahawks has been Doug
Baldwin, who is 34th at his position. Prior to his seven-reception,
134-yard, one-touchdown performance in Week 10, Baldwin had not
been in double digit fantasy points since Week 2.
A struggling Seattle passing game could get themselves back in
track here in Week 11 as they’ll be up against a San Francisco
secondary that currently ranks 24th in fantasy points per game
given up to opposing quarterbacks in 2015. They’ve given
up at least one passing touchdown in every game other than Week
1. Wilson threw for 235 yards and a touchdown against this defense
back in Week 7 when these teams played, but he also threw two
interceptions and rushed for just 20 yards – his fewest
total thus far in 2015. In that game, the only Seattle receiver
who made more than three receptions was rookie Tyler Lockett,
who caught a season high five passes including his first and only
touchdown of the season. Needless to say, it’s going to
be very difficult to trust anyone in this passing game here in
Week 11, even in a good matchup. Graham is really the only player
who should be in most lineups if he’s owned, but that’s
more due to a lack of other great options at the position this
season than it is a compliment of what Graham has been able to
do.
Running Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners were left scratching their
heads and not knowing what to do this past week as Lynch was a
game-time decision for a late night game. As such, he was likely
out of a lot of lineups as he rushed for 42 yards and a touchdown
in the Seahawks’ loss to the Cardinals. Lynch has battled
numerous injuries throughout the year, but as has been the case
throughout the majority of his career, he’s mostly been
fairly productive when he’s been on the field. Still, he
ranks a very disappointing 32nd among running backs in total fantasy
points heading into Week 11 and he’s only cracked 100 yards
once this year.
Lynch is still banged up, but expected to be back out there in
Week 11 when the Seahawks host the 49ers. His one 100-yard game
actually came against this defense when these teams played back
in Week 7 as Lynch rushed for 122 yards on 27 carries, including
a touchdown. Despite the 49ers having an elite defense throughout
almost his entire time in Seattle as a divisional foe, Lynch’s
per-game numbers have actually been excellent against the 49ers
throughout his career. In 11 career games against San Francisco,
Lynch has averaged 106 total yards and he’s scored nine
total touchdowns. Now that the 49ers are substantially weaker
on defense, Lynch has the ability to improve upon those numbers.
Unfortunately his abdomen injury seems to be still bothering him,
so it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see Thomas Rawls
get some touches to spell Lynch in this game. Still, Lynch is
the only player in the Seattle running game who should be considered
for fantasy purposes and it wouldn’t be surprising to see
him return RB1 numbers in this game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: He’s back! After seven excruciating
games without any semblance of an offense, Tony Romo is back.
I’m not saying Romo is the league’s most valuable
player (he is not), but no player is more valuable to his team
than Romo is to the Cowboys. I truly believe this team would go
0-16 without him. A single win during his absence would’ve
gone a long way towards a comeback, but even so, the Cowboys find
themselves not quite dead yet with seven games to play. It all
starts this week in Miami. All of Cowboys nation thanks the Dolphins
for their efforts last week against the Eagles and as a reward,
they will be just the second team this season to see Romo and
Dez Bryant on the field at the same time. With both players having
just a few games under their belts on the season, we don’t
have much to go on in terms of statistics. Romo played well in
his only full game this season, but that was back in Week 1, which
was also when Bryant broke his foot.
The Cowboys last played the Dolphins almost four years ago to
the day on Thanksgiving in a tightly contested comeback win. Romo
was quite mediocre in that game and Dez Bryant wasn’t quite
“Dez Bryant” yet. It is also impossible to compare
the 2011 Dolphins to the 2015 Dolphins. Too much has changed.
This year’s Dolphins have allowed 254.7 pass yards per game
and 17 TDs while forcing 7 INTs. They have not allowed a single
300-yard passer not named Tom Brady. However, they have also not
faced a single quality QB other than Brady. Romo will be their
second real test of the season after they spectacularly failed
the first one. It goes without saying that Romo’s return
is a boon for every Cowboys skill position player. Bryant vaults
right back into the top 5 at WR and Jason Witten should return
to TE1 status. If you have been stashing Romo, feel free to deploy
him this week, but don’t bench anyone who has been a consistent
season-long QB1 for him just yet.
Running Game Thoughts: Another week, another RB gone. This time,
at least, it was not due to injury. On Tuesday, the Cowboys ended
the Christine Michael experiment. It appears as though he is just
never going to “get it.” If you showed me a picture
of every Cowboys running back, the only one I’d be able
to point out is Darren McFadden. He has been a true workhouse
in a league with strikingly few, averaging 23 carries over his
past four games. His productivity stands to spike now that his
offense is capable of actually scoring points.
As an added benefit, he gets one of the worst run defenses in
the NFL this week. The Dolphins are allowing 135.6 yards per game
on the ground and 4.2 yards per carry. They do see a league high
32 rushing attempts against per game, but for good reason. They
can’t stop anyone. The Dolphins have allowed a 100-yard
rusher in four games this season while allowing five 100-yard
rushers total (Williams and McCoy both had 100-plus-yds in Week
9). With the volume McFadden is going to see this week and no
competition for carries, he has a great chance to become number
six.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Tannehill returned to end zone last
week for the first time since Week 7, throwing for 217 yards and
2 TDs in a win over the Eagles. The second TD doesn’t count,
though, as Tannehill fired it into Connor Barwin’s helmet
where it ricocheted into the air and somehow fell into the waiting
arms of Jarvis Landry (add this to the list of “I have no
idea how he scored on that play” TDs that Landry has on
the season). Tannehill is still making too many mistakes. He has
thrown 9 interceptions and has taken a safety, somehow, in three
consecutive games.
The Cowboys defense has been much better than anticipated, having
allowed just 9 passing TDs on the season and severely limited
opposing receivers. Their performance only stands to improve with
Romo’s return as now the offense will actually be able to
sustain drives and keep the defense on the sidelines longer. Tannehill
will still pepper Landry with targets, which is what makes his
floor so high and a WR2 every week. The player who could suffer
the most is Rishard Matthews. He has been a solid WR3, but the
Cowboys have been surprisingly adept at limiting receivers of
his play style. Stick with Landry, but if you’re stuck deciding
between Matthews and a similar caliber receiver, you might want
to go with option B.
Running Game Thoughts: Jay Ajayi has made an immediate impact
for the Dolphins and deserves a role going forward. Make no mistake,
though, this is still Lamar Miller’s backfield. Ajayi has
been excellent on his limited touches, but has still received
just 11 carries through two games and has been absent from the
passing game. Meanwhile, Miller has carried the ball 16 and 12
times over the past two weeks and had 5 or more receptions in
each of the past three games. Last week was his fifth game in
a row with a TD. While I wouldn’t expect him to run for
100 yards against the Cowboys, he remains a strong bet for a score
as the Cowboys have allowed the third most rushing TDs with 10.
Look for Miller to continue to hover around 15 carries with Ajayi
mixing in sparingly. Miller is a low end RB1 this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston had his streak of four consecutive
games without a turnover snapped last week against the Cowboys.
He threw two interceptions, which easily could have been three
or four. He also flat out dropped the ball to lose the game in
the 4th quarter until the refs handed the Bucs a second chance
on a defensive holding penalty. Winston continues to struggle
with completing passes, posting percentages of 56.4, 52.8, and
55.2 over his past three games. He has just one passing TD over
that span although he has rushed for a score in each of the past
three weeks. His weekly game plan seems to entail haphazardly
tossing the ball in Mike Evans’ general direction. That
has been very poor for Evans’ efficiency, but very good
for Evans’ production. Evans has now posted back to back
games of 8 receptions and gone over 125 yards in both. He has
just one TD on the season, but he is being inundated with targets
and remains a WR1, albeit with a considerably lower floor than
most.
The Eagles haven’t faced many physically imposing receivers,
but the ones they have seen have had their way with this defense.
Julio Jones went for 141 yards Week 1. Brandon Marshall went for
109 yards Week 3. Dez Bryant went for 104 yards Week 9. Even Rishard
Matthews went for 93 yards last week. In a week where he should
once again see double digit targets, things are shaping up nicely
for Evans to have another strong outing. The Eagles have allowed
15 pass TDs on the year so perhaps Evans can find the end zone
for just the second time this season.
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin continues to play quality
football as his bounce back year carries on. Last week’s
numbers weren’t flashy, but in a game where he couldn’t
really get anything going and didn’t find the end zone,
he was able to put up RB2 numbers. Martin hasn’t scored
in four weeks, but he is receiving the bulk of the carries and
that doesn’t project to change this week. Charles Sims is
still on the field way more than I’d like him to be, but
the coaching staff seems to want Sims to work. He remains the
passing down back and if the Eagles build up a lead, Martin could
find himself on the sidelines a little too often. Working in Martin’s
favor is the 111.3 yards per game the Eagles allow on the ground.
Hopefully he can find his way into the end zone as well.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sam Bradford has not been good this year.
With just two multi-TD games on the season, Bradford’s lackluster
campaign came to a screeching halt as he was driven into the turf
in the 3rd quarter of the Eagles’ loss to the Dolphins last
week. Bradford separated his left shoulder and was concussed on
the hit. Suffice it to say he is not going to play this week.
Enter Mark Sanchez. The Sanchize is back and hasn’t missed
a beat. He looked OK for most of his relief appearance except
for a throw where nearly killed Jordan Matthews. Then he topped
it all off with a game sealing end zone interception. Conventional
wisdom says to always give relief QBs a pass as obviously Sanchez
was not prepared to enter this contest. However, we have seen
this before with Sanchez. Bradford may not have been playing well,
but Sanchez’s ceiling might very well be Sam Bradford. In
Sanchez’s nine games in 2014, he completed 64.1% of his
passes with 14 TDs and 11 INTs and did have an excellent rapport
with Jordan Matthews. Despite his tendency to hang receivers out
to dry, Sanchez could be exactly what JMatt needs to get going
after his return to prominence lasted all of one week.
Matthews managed just 3 catches for 21 yards last week as the
Eagles receivers were largely ineffective. With a full week of
practice with the ones, Sanchez should at least be somewhat competent
against a Bucs defense that has been stingy with the yards, but
generous with the touchdowns. The Bucs allow just 233.2 yards
per game through the air, but have allowed 19 passing TDs, which
is tied for 3rd worst in the league. Matthews remains the only
member of the Eagles passing attack you should be starting, but
treat him as nothing more than a WR3 until he proves worthy of
stronger consideration.
Running Game Thoughts: DeMarco Murray had an ineffective, yet
productive game last week against the Dolphins. He dominated the
backfield touches with 22, but accumulated just 61 yards. He did
see 8 targets in the passing game, catching 6 for 58 yards. Ryan
Mathews was the back to find the end zone, though, and he has
now scored in six games this season. Unfortunately, he departed
last week’s game early with a concussion. He will obviously
go through the league’s concussion protocol and his status
needs to be monitored throughout the weekend, but owners should
operate as if he will not be able to play. Murray will remain
a high end RB2 regardless of Mathews’ status as Mathews
has not impacted Murray’s workload even when playing. Murray
has had just one truly impressive game this year, but as long
as the volume keeps up, he belongs in fantasy lineups.
The Bucs have been surprisingly stingy against the run this season.
They are allowing just 3.6 yards per carry and only Alfred Blue
in Week 3 can claim a 100-yard rushing day against the Bucs. They
have been superb at limiting the big play on the ground. The longest
rush they’ve allowed all season is 21 yards, which is quite
incredible. Just when it looked like the Eagles were starting
to find their rhythm, Bradford went down and now Mathews is banged
up as well. You’re starting Murray this week, but temper
expectations for a team very much in turmoil at the moment.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Bills will throw no more than they have
to. Tyrod Taylor has made 7 starts for the Bills this season and
has attempted fewer than 20 passes three times and attempted 30
or fewer passes six times. In Week 4 against the Giants, Taylor
threw the ball 42 times, 12 more than his next highest pass attempt
total. The Bills do not hide the fact that their strategy every
week is to win the game on the ground. Last week against the Jets,
they did just that. Taylor played well, completing 17-of-27 throws
for 158 yards and a TD, which was great for Rex Ryan…not
so much for your fantasy team. Sammy Watkins went back to being
an afterthought, catching just 3 of his 7 targets for 14 yards.
Robert Woods had a nearly identical game with the only difference
being he had 19 yards receiving.
The good news is the Bills will likely have to throw more this
week, making Taylor’s matchup much more appetizing. The
Patriots allowed Eli Manning to throw for 361 yards last week
with 2 TDs and 0 INTs. When the Patriots and the Bills last met
in Week 2, the game was a complete shootout, with Taylor completing
23-of-30 passes for 242 yards, 3 TDs, and 3 INTs. He also rushed
for 43 yards a TD. Admittedly, a large portion of Taylor’s
production came in garbage time as the Patriots carelessly allowed
the Bills back in the game, but stats are stats however we get
them. I would not expect 4 TDs again, but I would expect Taylor
to get back on the QB1 horse this week.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bills running game is just really
impressive. The Jets are a very good team with a very good defense,
yet they had no answer for LeSean McCoy last week as he gashed
them for 5.9 yards per carry. McCoy didn’t score, but he
is now up to 4.7 yards per carry on the season after his second
consecutive 112-yard rushing game (yes – he’s rushed
for exactly 112 yards in back to back games). In this most recent
performance, he added 47 yards on 5 catches. The only thing missing
was a touchdown, which, of course, went to Karlos Williams. I
think at this point we just have to assume he’s going to
score in every game of his career…right? Williams touched
the ball 8 times, 7 on the ground for 24 yards and once in the
air for 26 yards and the Bills’ lone offensive score.
Expect more of the same from the Bills, at least early on, as
they do their best to keep Tom Brady off the field. Shady should
touch the ball upwards of 20 times with Williams handling his
usual 8-10. The Bills had success on the ground Week 2 before
they had to abandon the run while in catch up mode. The Patriots
are right up there with the Jets for the league’s best run
defense, but I would not let that be much of a deterrent from
starting Shady with confidence. At this point, I’d feel
confident starting Williams, too, if I didn’t have a better
option.
Passing
Game Thoughts: We have discovered the only way to contain
Angry Tom Brady – the New York Giants. It truly is incredible.
Yes, the Patriots won the game, but they certainly didn’t
deserve to. For the first time all season, Brady looked human.
After the opening drive where he scored easily, Brady struggled
mightily. He legitimately looked out of sync and rattled. I cannot
remember the last time I watched Tom Brady and thought to myself,
“I’m not sure if he can do this.” He threw a
reckless interception targeting Brandon LaFell in the end zone
and fumbled twice (losing just one) while showing “un-Brady-like”
presence in the pocket. If not for the Giants’ continued
incompetence when it comes to understanding late game clock management,
the Patriots likely lose.
Over the past two weeks, Brady has scored just two touchdowns
in each game, which for Brady, is considered underperforming.
In their Week 2 game against the Bills, Brady threw for his season
best 466 yards and 3 TDs. Look for Brady to return with a dominant
performance against a team that doesn’t have his number.
As for his receivers, the hits just keep on coming as Julian Edelman
suffered the same injury as Dez Bryant. He underwent surgery on
Monday and his regular season is over. With Edelman sidelined,
Danny Amendola picked up the slack, seeing a team high 11 targets
and catching 10, including the two most important ones of the
game on the final drive to setup Gostkowksi’s game winner.
LaFell was serviceable and will continue to be a boom or bust
WR3. Rob Gronkowski was mostly held in check aside from his 76-yard
TD. The entire offense should have a much better time away from
planet Krypton. Start your Pats with confidence.
Running Game Thoughts: Quick! Everyone run to your waiver wire
to put in your claims for James White or Brandon Bolden! Which
one will fill the Dion Lewis role? Answer: neither. LeGarrette
Blount carried the ball 19 times for 66 yards and even caught
2 passes for 11 yards. He was on the field for the majority of
the snaps and didn’t feel the wrath of Bill Belichick after
his missed blocking assignment led to a Brady strip sack. White
and Bolden combined for just 3 touches and are completely irrelevant.
The passing plays previously designed for Lewis were going to
Edelman and Amendola (now just Amendola). If you do not roster
Blount, you do not need a Patriot running back.
Blount was nowhere to be found during the Week 2 match up, but
he certainly will have a large role this week. He is averaging
21 carries over the Patriots’ last three games. If we remove
the two games where he saw just 2 and 3 carries (Weeks 2 and 7),
Blount is averaging 4.57 yards per carry on the season. He is
a virtual lock for another 15-plus carries this week and his volume
and lack of competition for carries makes him an every week RB2.
The Bills are a top 10 run defense, but they struggled with Chris
Ivory last week and could suffer a similar fate with Blount.