Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard to explain Aaron Rodgers’
struggles in 2015. Sure he’s missing Jordy Nelson, but the
popular narrative was that “Rodgers made Nelson” and
he could be easily replaced by the next man up. While I never
bought into the line of thinking, and saw the talent in Nelson,
I did buy into the belief that Rodgers could make almost any wide
receiver look good and therefore the offense wouldn’t miss
Nelson all that much. Rodgers once again struggled last week in
yet another loss to an “inferior” division rival at
home. Rodgers threw for only 202 yards with a touchdown and an
interception and completed only 51% of his passes against the
Bears. He’s only exceeded a 58% completion rate once since
Week 5. If Rodgers is injured, the Packers have done a great job
of covering it up, so perhaps it’s just a psychological
funk that he’s in or maybe the Packers really do miss Nelson
a lot. Davante Adams has been the most disappointing member of
the passing game, failing to come close to replacing Nelson’s
production while playing less efficiently than almost every other
receiver in the game. I said last week that “Aaron Rodgers
is just too good for anyone to think this passing attack will
not get turned back around”, but at this point my confidence
is waning.
The Lions pass defense had struggled for most of the season, but
in the last four games the unit has only allowed 195.5 passing
yards per games and has shut down Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers and
Derek Carr and embarrassed the beleaguered Mark Sanchez on Thanksgiving
Day. The recent surge has moved the Lions up to the middle of
the pack. The team is allowing 242.2 passing yards per game and
18 touchdowns on the season to opposing quarterbacks. Darius Slay
has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league over the last
five weeks, so Adams isn’t likely to turn things around
if he finds himself matched up with the Lions DB.
Running Game Thoughts: It looks like Eddie Lacy found some motivation
and some good health after being benched for veteran James Starks.
Lacy has rushed for 100 yards or more in back-to-back weeks after
sitting out with a groin injury. Prior to that, he was demoted
to a backup role, struggling with an ankle injury and perhaps
some excess weight on his frame. The last two games, Lacy showed
great vision and ran with the power that made him a force to be
reckoned with during his first two NFL seasons. It’s safe
to assume that he’s recaptured the lead back role and should
have another big game this Thursday night. Starks is a fine back
in his own right, and while he’s no longer a real fantasy
option in a backup role, he is an injury away from returning to
relevance.
The Lions’ run defense has been very poor during the course
of the 2015 season which could work to the Packers’ advantage.
The team is now allowing 112.5 yards per game on the ground and
has yielded a league worst 15 rushing touchdowns. Lacy should
be relied on heavily in an effort to take some pressure off of
the struggling Rodgers and should excel in this matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Lions’ switch in offensive coordinators
from Joe Lombardi to Jim Bob Cooter wasn’t making much of
a difference until the Eagles struggling defense came to the Motor
City on Thanskgiving Day. Matthew Stafford and the Lions’
passing attack were back in business and likely enjoyed their
turkey dinner. Stafford threw 5 touchdown passes with Calvin Johnson
on the receiving end of three of them. Golden Tate also helped
to dominate an overmatched Philadelphia secondary that failed
to make the proper in game adjustments. Eric Ebron, who went catchless
the week before got involved early but disappeared once again
after a hot start. He needs to be more involved in the offense,
as he was early in the season, as his athleticism makes him a
matchup problem and further helps the passing game succeed.
The Packers’ pass defense is allowing 248.6 yards per game
with 14 touchdowns against thus far in 2015. Stafford threw for
242 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception the first time
around, which is about an average day against this defense. The
Packers have 30 sacks on the season so if the Lions struggle to
run the ball, as they have all season, things could get ugly for
a quarterback that can be prone to turnovers. However, Stafford
has matured enough and should have some confidence after already
beating the Packers in Green Bay a few weeks ago.
Running Game Thoughts: The Lions
have been the worst rushing offense in the league this season,
averaging only 74.5 yards per game on the ground, but did show
some signs of life against the Eagles last week. Ameer Abdullah
finally had some running room and was handed the ball a career
high 16 times last Thursday, gaining 63 yards. He looked quick,
decisive and deceptively strong, all the things he was expected
to be after much preseason hype. He may turn a corner now, but
it’s still hard to recommend starting a guy that has struggled
all season after a one week “breakout” that didn’t
even result in a big fantasy day.
It should help, however, that the Packers are a below average
run defense, allowing 112.8 yards per game and 10 rushing touchdowns
on the season. It’s hard to imagine the Lions getting their
ground game going, but it’s not that hard to imagine them
making an effort to do so.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Death. Taxes. Matt Schaub throwing touchdowns
to the wrong team. Oh Schaub, we’ve missed you. Schaub threw
three touchdowns in his first start since 2013, one to Buck Allen,
one to Kamar Aiken, and one to Karlos Dansby. Removing the hilarity
of him adding another pick-6 to his resume, he looked semi-competent
filling in for Joe Flacco and the Ravens did win the game, albeit
with two scores on special teams including a walkoff “kick
6.” Schaub proved that the usable options in this offense,
Aiken and Allen, should remain so even without Flacco. Flying
well under the radar in terms of production, Aiken has had at
least 5 catches for 50 yards in his last four games while scoring
in each of his last two. He led the team in targets last week
and should remain a strong WR3 based on volume for the remainder
of the season. The biggest disappointment had to be tight end
Crockett Gillmore, who many expected to see an uptick in targets
with the TE-loving Matt Schaub under center. Gillmore saw just
four targets and was largely ignored. Hopefully his involvement
increases as the Ravens head to Miami to take on a Dolphins team
in the midst of a lost season.
The Dolphins were torched by Ryan Fitzpatrick last week and while
I never expect Schaub to light anyone up, the matchup remains
favorable for Aiken and possibly Gillmore, if they decide to use
him. Relying on anyone tied to Schaub is a tenuous proposition,
but against a team that’s allowed 23 touchdowns through
the air, this is as good of a week as any.
Running Game Thoughts: As if losing their top WR and QB wasn’t
enough, the Ravens also lost their starting RB when Justin Forsett
broke his arm in Week 11. Forsett’s injury opened the door
for rookie Buck Allen to be the feature back. The rookie did not
disappoint. In his first career start, Allen handled 12 carries
totaling 55 yards and caught 4 passes for 29 yards, including
a touchdown where he dipped under two would-be tacklers, making
them look foolish on his way to the end zone. The biggest concerns
for Allen going forward are his lack of use on third downs and
Terrance West. Allen came out on just about every third down for
Kyle Juszczyk as the Ravens operated without a running back and
he was spelled often in the second half by West, who looked impressive
in his own right. West rushed for 37 yards on 7 carries. While
Allen should remain the starter, this has the makings of a “hot
hand” situation where all it would take is a couple poor
Allen runs followed by a couple strong West runs for the scales
to tip.
For now, Allen is a strong RB2 against a Dolphins defense allowing
a league worst 138.5 rushing yards per game while seeing the most
carries against. Teams know they can run against the Dolphins
and they do it consistently. With Matt Schaub at quarterback,
the Ravens should employ a run heavy strategy. The Ravens running
game will have a good week. Hopefully West doesn’t steal
too much of Allen’s thunder.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Tannehill has not had the season many
expected from him. While he had a great fantasy performance last
week, the entirety of his production came with the Jets nursing
a sizable lead. Tannehill threw for 351 yards and 3 TDs but also
threw an interception and lost a fumble. Reports came out that
the Dolphins view Tannehill as more of a game manager, which is
not what you want to hear if you are a Ryan Tannehill owner or
Ryan Tannehill. There is one thing Tannehill has excelled at all
season, and that’s throwing the ball to Jarvis Landry. Landry
saw a game high 16 targets last week, catching 13 of them for
165 yards and a touchdown. If ever someone could be described
as an elite WR2, it’s Landry. He has the highest floor of
any receiver not named Antonio Brown. Also of note from last week’s
game was the emergence of DeVante Parker. The highly touted rookie
had been buried on the depth chart all season, but an injury to
Rishard Matthews (ribs) and the score of the game created a window
of opportunity and Parker capitalized. He saw 10 targets, catching
just 4, but had 80 yards and a touchdown. With Matthews dealing
with multiple broken ribs and Greg Jennings being old and not
very good anymore, Parker could finally crack the starting lineup.
The Ravens are awful against the pass as demonstrated by their
inability to stop an ice cold Austin Davis from driving down the
field for a game tying touchdown. However, I wouldn’t unleash
Parker just yet as I’d like to see his usage for a full
game before declaring that he’s “arrived.”
Running Game Thoughts: When your team rosters Lamar Miller and
Jay Ajayi and they combine for only 8 yards on 8 carries, someone
has to pay. The failure to hand the ball to Miller played a large
role in what got Joe Philbin fired. Something similar was likely
the cause for OC Bill Lazor’s termination following last
week’s debacle. An overhaul of the coaching staff is not
going to fix all of the Dolphins’ problems, but getting
rid of people who apparently think giving the ball to Lamar Miller
is a bad idea is a good start. Miller will have a much better
game against the Ravens this week (it can’t be worse), but
even amidst their disastrous season, the Ravens have defended
the run well, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry.
Unfortunately for Miller owners, the Ravens strong run defense
isn’t the biggest worry. Miller is an unrestricted free
agent after this season and after being out-snapped significantly
by Ajayi last week, it’s a legitimate question whether that
was due to the score and protecting Miller or the Dolphins wanting
to get a long look at their rookie. The fact that when the game
was out of reach, the Dolphins turned to Ajayi, does not bode
well for Miller’s future. Once the Dolphins season is officially
over, it could become the Jay Ajayi show. For now, Miller remains
a high end RB2, but if you’re a Miller owner and don’t
roster Ajayi, the concern is legitimate.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The best quarterback in New York is…Ryan
Fitzpatrick? Maybe that’s a stretch, but he certainly claimed
the top spot last week in his 277-yard, 4 TD demolition of the
Dolphins. Days after Todd Bowles was for some reason forced to
give Fitzpatrick a vote of confidence ahead of hapless Geno Smith,
Fitzpatrick responded with his best performance as a Jet, ensuring
his team remains in the thick of the wild card race. Fitzpatrick’s
big game came the old fashioned way – that is – pummeling
his top two receivers with targets. Brandon Marshall and Eric
Decker combined for 14 catches for 193 yards and 3 TDs on 20 targets.
The rest of the team combined saw just 17 targets. Marshall typically
either amasses 100-plus yards receiving or scores a touchdown.
Last week, he did both. Decker continues to be the model of consistency.
He is a WR2 every week. For comparison purposes, he is pretty
much the exact opposite of DeSean Jackson.
There exist few better spots to build upon last week’s
effort than a “home not home” game against their stadium-mates.
The lesser talented New York team lays claim to the league’s
worst pass defense, allowing 309.2 passing yards per game, which
is 25 more than the second worst (Saints). They just allowed Kirk
Cousins to throw for over 300 yards against them for the second
time this season. While Cousins did most of his damage on one
throw to DJax, Fitzpatrick has two mammoth receivers at his disposal.
These are two teams trending in opposite directions. Marshall
and Decker should have their way with the Giants secondary.
Running Game Thoughts: Chris Ivory didn’t look fantastic
last week, but the volume was there in the form of 21 carries
and he found the end zone on an impressive 31-yard score that
featured a number of broken tackles. Ivory was largely ineffective
outside of the long touchdown run, but at this point in the season
and with so few reliable running backs, it’s hard to complain
about what Ivory brings to the table. The biggest concern with
Ivory is always going to be his health. For now, that appears
to not be an issue, which is great news on the heels of a crucial
game against a Giants run defense that just made Alfred Morris
sort of, kind of, maybe look like a competent running back. The
Giants are allowing 110.5 yards per game on the ground and generally
aren’t very good at playing defense. Ivory will be an RB1
in the most important fantasy week of the season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Eli Manning was not nearly as bad last week
as the box score indicates as two of his three interceptions were
not his fault. A lot of Manning’s problems can be attributed
to other team deficiencies, but one area that cannot be excused
is his remarkable inefficiency. Two weeks after completing 54.5
percent of his passes against the Patriots, Manning completed
just 51 percent of his passes against the Redskins. He now has
five games where his completion percentage was in the 50s. The
complete absence of a running game obviously does not help and
is a large reason why the pass attempts count is high, but it
does not explain why Manning is struggling to connect with receivers
when he does throw the ball. This is especially puzzling when
one of his receivers is Odell Beckham Jr., who I am about to start
treating like the receiver version of Adrian Peterson (not saying
that Beckham is the best receiver in the league, just that he
may or may not be human). Beckham has seen 47 targets over his
last three games. He saw 18 targets last week, but only caught
half of them. His final stat line was fantastic for your fake
team, but his inefficiency is approaching Demaryius Thomas levels.
His week 13 prospects will hinge significantly on the status
of Darrelle Revis’ brain. Revis missed last week’s
contest due a concussion suffered in week 11 and looks highly
unlikely to suit up this week. Despite getting torched by DeAndre
Hopkins, Revis has been his shut down self for the vast majority
of this season. His absence leaves the Jets with no answer for
Beckham. Outside of Beckham, there is no one reliable in this
passing game. Every week a secondary player seems to produce,
but it’s never the same guy. Will Tye had a nice game last
week and looks to be locked into the tight end spot with Larry
Donnell’s season very much in doubt. However, against the
Jets’ elite pass defense, I wouldn’t feel confident
with anyone besides Beckham.
Running Game Thoughts: Somehow, the Giants running game continues
to get worse. Granted they were in comeback mode the entire second
half, but the Giants managed a pathetic 33 rushing yards on 13
rushing attempts last week. Tom Coughlin’s game plan certainly
wasn’t for Eli Manning to throw it up 51 times and that
number will undoubtedly be lower this week as the Giants look
to establish the running game. There are just a few problems with
that. The Giants just lost another offensive lineman. They can’t
run block. They don’t have talented running backs. The only
talented back they have, Shane Vereen, is not a between the tackles
runner, not a feature back, and they barely use him. Worst of
all, the Giants are running into the league’s top run defense.
You thought the Giants’ rushing numbers were laughable?
Last week, the Jets held the Dolphins to 12 rushing yards. Twelve!
The Jets allow 4.3 fewer yards per game than the next best team
and have still allowed only two rushing touchdowns on the season.
No Giants running back needs to be owned or even monitored on
the waiver wire.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Eagles had 10 days to dwell on their
Thanksgiving Day stinker in Detroit. Mark Sanchez was dreadful.
He had his trademark cluelessness and inaccuracy and made his
weekly “let’s see if I can get Jordan Matthews killed”
throw. Mercifully, Sanchez’s run as the Eagles’ starting
quarterback is over, at least for now. Unfortunately, that means
the return of Sam Bradford, who wasn’t exactly lighting
the world on fire prior to his injury. Bradford has started nine
games this season for the Eagles and has a 1:1 touchdown to turnover
ratio. Suffice it to say, that’s not good. Bradford has
more multiple interception games (4) than multiple touchdown games
(2). The only other viable member of this passing attack is Jordan
Matthews, but outside of his two games against the Cowboys and
garbage time last week, he has done just about nothing this season.
I still believe in his talent and think he has a bright future,
likely under a new regime, but it’s now Week 13 and difficult
to be optimistic about him for the remainder of the season. Odds
are if your team needs him, you probably aren’t playing
beyond this week anyway.
The last thing a floundering offense needs is a trip to Foxboro
the week after the Patriots lost a heartbreaker in overtime. The
Patriots allow 252.6 pass yards per game and have allowed 15 touchdowns
against 10 interceptions. While those numbers aren’t spectacular,
the Patriots are going to be looking to make a statement this
week in all facets of the game. It could get just as ugly for
Bradford as it did for Sanchez last week.
Running Game Thoughts: While Detroit’s defense has been
significantly improved, DeMarco Murray owners surely expected
a much better effort than 14 carries for 30 yards and no catches
in a game where Ryan Mathews didn’t play. It was Murray’s
first game of the season without a reception. In fact, he wasn’t
even targeted. We are now twelve weeks into the season and Murray
has just one 100-yard rushing game and hasn’t scored multiple
touchdowns in a game since Week 1. Mathews appears likely to miss
his second consecutive game as he remains in the league’s
concussion protocol, which theoretically should provide Murray
another opportunity to make a splash. Even in a blowout loss last
week, Kenjon Barner didn’t see much work until the 4th quarter.
I wouldn’t expect him to cut much into Murray’s workload.
The Patriots remain one of the league’s better run defenses,
allowing 97 yards rushing per game and that combined with the
likelihood of the Eagles needing to throw to keep pace places
a huge cloud around Murray. He is still the unquestioned starter
and belongs in fantasy lineups, but Murray is at best a low end
RB2 this week. Keep expectations in check.
Passing
Game Thoughts: On the road against the league’s best
pass defense and coming off his worst game of the season, expectations
were significantly lowered for Tom Brady. He responded with 280
yards and 3 touchdowns. The Patriots still lost the game. While
the Patriots and their fans are surely lamenting over a loss,
the outcome actually couldn’t have been more perfect for
Brady’s fantasy owners (well, we could’ve done without
the Gronk injury). Brady proved once again he can produce elite
QB1 numbers with practice squad talent and now he is angrier than
ever. Brady appeared on the Dennis and Callahan Show on Monday
and discussed how he’s never been so visibly aggravated
before at a loss. I didn’t think it was possible, but it
appears Angry Tom Brady has evolved into Angrier Tom Brady. And
he is going to take out his frustrations on a downtrodden Eagles
defense that just allowed Matt Stafford to toss five touchdowns
against them.
The Eagles allow the same amount of passing yards per game as
the Patriots, but they’ve allowed 25 touchdown passes, second
most in the league. It is true that Stafford had a decepticon
to throw to last week and Brady will have to move forward without
his own robot, but Brady is a far superior player and I expect
it not to matter, at least for this week. Helping Brady’s
cause is the likely return of Danny Amendola, who was absent from
last week’s contest with a knee sprain. Brady has a point
to prove this week and isn’t going to let a Gronk injury
get in his way.
Running Game Thoughts: The Patriots aren’t ones to beat
a dead horse. When the run game isn’t working, they don’t
jam a square peg into a round hole. They just abandon. Last week,
Brady threw 42 passes against 16 handoffs, making it two games
in a row that LeGarrette Blount put up a dud. It’s getting
increasingly difficult to predict when Blount will have a significant
role, but this week shapes up to be one of those games. The Patriots
rarely hand the ball to James White or Brandon Bolden and figuring
out which one of them will be the back to catch a few passes (or
a touchdown) is a fool’s errand. As for Blount, even in
a game where Brady will likely be proving a point through the
air, there should be enough offense to go around. I expect the
Patriots to be nursing a large lead in the second half, which
conventional wisdom indicates is a prime opportunity to feed Blount.
Applying conventional wisdom to Bill Belichick is still a questionable
proposition, but Blount should receive 15-plus carries against
a bottom five run defense allowing 126.6 rushing yards per game.
Blount is never a safe play nor a reliable RB2, but I think he
puts up RB2 numbers this week in a favorable matchup with a favorable
game script.
Passing
Game Thoughts: How long is a moment? There really isn’t
a right or wrong answer. A moment is an unspecified period of
time. It is here. Then it is gone. Just like Tony Romo. The Cowboys’
season is over. They will finish 3-13 and with a little luck,
could end up with a top 3 pick. That’s great for the 2016
season, but obviously does no good for anyone invested in this
offense. Matt Cassel will once again take over under center and
will presumably start the remaining five games, although it would
behoove the Cowboys organization to at least see what Kellen Moore
has. While Cassel certainly is not the worst starting QB in the
league (looking at you, Case Keenum) nor the worst QB to throw
a pass this season (looking at you, Peyton Manning), he belongs
nowhere near your fantasy roster and provides a significant downgrade
for the entire Cowboys offense. In Cassel’s four starts
this season, he has either failed to throw a touchdown or thrown
an interception in each one of them. In his best game of the season,
against the particularly horrible Philadelphia Eagles, Cassel
threw for 299 yards and was responsible for 4 touchdowns. Unfortunately,
one of them was to the Eagles. Things were about to get much better
for Dez Bryant as the schedule opens up and while he will still
be a strong fantasy starter, do not treat him like the elite WR1
he’s been the past four years.
Bryant was completely shut down by the best cornerback in the
league, Josh Norman, last week, but will have a much easier time
this week, even without Romo, against a Redskins defense that
has struggled mightily against the pass recently. A week after
getting torched by my vote for MVP, Cam Newton, for 5 TDs, the
Redskins allowed Eli Manning to throw for over 300 yards and gave
up 142 yards receiving to Odell Beckham. While I don’t think
Cassel is capable of supporting those kinds of numbers for a receiver,
he will target Bryant often this week and in a favorable matchup,
Bryant is a high end WR2. The rest of this passing game can be
ignored.
Running Game Thoughts: Darren McFadden completely faceplanted
last week, totaling 11 yards on 10 carries. He salvaged his fantasy
day by leading the Cowboys in receiving with 4 catches for 45
yards and hauling in a two-point conversion pass. DMC was largely
the victim of game flow as the Cowboys couldn’t get anything
going after digging an early hole on the back of Romo’s
three ghastly interceptions. He will have a much easier time against
the Redskins’ very forgiving front seven. The Redskins have
allowed 126.6 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry.
If McFadden receives the volume, the numbers should follow.
The biggest concern for McFadden is going to be how the Cowboys
choose to play out the remainder of this season, beginning this
week. At this point, it has to be clear to Jerry Jones that 2015
is a lost season (although his reluctance to put Romo on the IR
just yet indicates otherwise). The team has shown no indication
it can win a game without Romo so it is best to just play for
next year. This could be a problem for McFadden, who will be 29
next season, as the Cowboys may try and see what they have in
Robert Turbin and Rod Smith in an effort to gauge how important
getting a running back should be on the offseason agenda. At this
point, it is just speculation, but McFadden owners may want to
grab one of his backups on the chance the Cowboys give one of
them an opportunity and they run with it. For this week, fire
up DMC as a strong RB2 in a favorable matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins had quite the respectable performance
last week against the Giants, throwing for 302 yards and 1 TD
while rushing for another. The Captain led the Redskins to a win
over the Giants and first place in the NFC East, but most importantly,
he inspired a Redskins fan to yell “you like that!”
at a bunch of Giants fans after the game. There’s a video.
It’s quite entertaining. This quality outing notwithstanding,
Cousins is still not a viable fantasy option, having thrown for
exactly one touchdown in all but two games this season. Cousins
has been doing two things exceptionally well. He targets Jordan
Reed relentlessly and he hits DeSean Jackson over the top. Predictably,
Jackson got behind the Giants secondary for a long completion
and wasted no time in trolling on his way to the end zone. Jay
Gruden said Jackson needs to be more involved. Coaches lie. A
lot. Jackson saw just four targets, which is a firm reminder as
to how low his weekly floor is.
The Cowboys are actually not a favorable matchup. Surprisingly,
they have one of the best pass defenses in the league, having
allowed a league low 11 touchdown passes. They have also consistently
limited outside receivers. DJax has a good history against the
Cowboys, having torched them in both contests last year, but this
is a different team. The Redskins run defense isn’t good
enough to force the Cowboys to abandon their game plan of ball
control so Jackson will once again likely have to beat someone
deep to avoid a dud. He remains the boom or bust WR2 he’s
always been.
Running Game Thoughts: With the Redskins suddenly in command
of this division, their focus has to shift from seeing what they
may have to sticking with what they know. Matt Jones is clearly
the most talented runner on the team. However, he has documented
fumbling issues and the Redskins can’t risk waiting for
him to fix the problem. This is how Alfred Morris returns to relevance,
dominating snaps and carries, and leading the team with 23 rushes
for 78 yards. He wasn’t necessarily efficient, but he looked
better than he has in weeks and he doesn’t fumble. Jones
will still be involved and may still get the goal line carries,
but “Ally Mo” appears to have regained control of
this backfield.
The Cowboys are mediocre against the run, allowing 4.1 yards
per carry and 106.9 yards per game, but they are particularly
vulnerable at the goal line, having permitted 11 rushing scores
on the season. Morris’ projected volume combined with Jones’
complementary role and goal line touches has them both flirting
with RB3 value this week. Neither are recommended plays, but if
you’re in a bind, they’re better than what you’ll
likely find on waivers.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer failed to throw a touchdown
pass for the first time all season this past week when he and
the Cardinals narrowly edged out the mediocre 49ers in a tougher-than-expected
road game. The Cardinals had previously blown the 49ers out so
many believed that Palmer’s matchup was one of the best,
if not the best matchup of the day. Unfortunately, this meant
that fantasy owners were largely disappointed with what they got
from this typically high-powered offense. Palmer himself was able
to salvage his fantasy day with a goal line rushing touchdown,
but certainly there is reason to be a bit concerned about the
sudden struggles. It’s worth considering, though, that Palmer
had thrown 11 touchdown passes in his previous three games so
don’t be too quick to jump to conclusions and take him out
of your starting lineup. He and his top target Larry Fitzgerald
have been fantasy monsters all season and a small blip on the
radar shouldn’t change fantasy owners’ opinions on
the duo.
Fitzgerald and his fellow Arizona wide receivers are not exactly
the model of health heading into this Sunday’s game against
St. Louis, however. All three players are nursing injuries, with
Fitzgerald seemingly the most likely to play. Michael Floyd is
also trending toward playing, but he wasn’t a big part of
the Arizona offense against San Francisco, catching just one of
his two targets on the day. Young receiver John Brown has been
injured for much of the season and his current hamstring injury
has limited him in practice so far this week. While Brown will
likely play, he might not have his usual explosiveness and he
and the rest of the Arizona passing game are very much in for
a challenge this week as they are defended by the St. Louis secondary
which has held opposing quarterbacks to the fourth-fewest fantasy
points per game so far this season. They have given up seven touchdowns
to opposing quarterbacks over their past three games, though,
so there is still plenty of reason to trust at least Palmer and
Fitzgerald in this important game.
Running Game Thoughts: The resurgence of Chris Johnson has come
to an end – at least for fantasy purposes in 2015 –
as the running back has been officially placed on injured reserve
with a fractured tibia. “CJ2K” will be eligible to
return if the Cardinals make the Super Bowl, but fantasy owners
will now look toward a new player in the backfield. Fortunately,
we won’t need to learn a new name as it will be a new “Johnson”
– David Johnson. The rookie tailback has shown some big
play ability in his limited work, but the coaching staff in Arizona,
known for their preference to not trust young players, have not
given him many opportunities. Now their hand seems to be forced,
however, as Andre Ellington is also expected to miss this week’s
contest. The team promoted Kerwynn Williams from the practice
squad, who could see some playing time particularly as a third
down back, but Johnson is expected to get the majority of the
playing time in what has been one of the league’s best offenses
this season.
Johnson will be running against a St. Louis defense that ranks
in the middle of the pack for the season in terms of fantasy points
conceded to opposing running backs. The unit has not been great
lately, however, as they’ve given up at least 96 rushing
yards and an average of 115 rushing yards per game over their
past four contests. The Cardinals backs themselves combined to
rush for 101 yards when these teams met back in Week 4, with David
Johnson totaling 81 yards on just seven touches, including a big
touchdown in the passing game. Given the situation and his explosive
ability, Johnson’s fantasy value is on the rise and he could
be considered as much as a low-end RB1 this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Head coach Jeff Fisher has named Nick Foles
the Rams’ starting quarterback for Week 13 as Case Keenum
still has not cleared the concussion protocol in time to prepare
for Sunday’s contest. Keenum seemed to bring some excitement
to the St. Louis offense whereas the offense has been extremely
stagnant under Foles. Foles was atrocious this past week against
Cincinnati, throwing three interceptions while failing to throw
a single touchdown in what was a blowout road loss. While the
Rams do return home for this week’s game, there’s
not a whole lot to be excited about in the St. Louis passing game,
perhaps with the exception of wide receiver Tavon Austin who has
shown some signs of life this season in what has otherwise been
a terrible season for the team’s wide receivers. Much of
Austin’s production has come on designed gimmick plays for
him, including multiple runs out of the backfield, but he has
done a remarkable job of breaking those plays for large gains
and even touchdowns.
Austin won’t have an easy day, though, as he will likely
be shadowed by one of the league’s top cornerbacks, Patrick
Peterson, who has been almost impossible for opposing quarterbacks
to pass on this season. Even when matched up against some of the
league’s best receivers, Peterson has been able to keep
most of his opponents in check. Austin might be able to avoid
Peterson, who primarily plays on the edge, by moving into the
slot as he has done many times this season. Unfortunately for
him, in the slot he will likely see a lot of Tyrann Mathieu who
has been every bit as good, if not better than Peterson. Needless
to say, given the up-and-down nature of Austin’s season
and the extremely difficult matchup he faces, this is a good week
to sit both he and the entire St. Louis passing game.
Running Game Thoughts: Rookie running back Todd Gurley has been
one of the biggest stories of the 2015 season as he has truly
broken out to be one of the best fantasy players in the league.
Gurley has already made a case to not only be taken early, but
potentially be taken No. 1 overall in fantasy drafts in 2016,
but the reality is that fantasy owners have seen his production
fall in recent weeks. Although he had scored a touchdown in each
of his previous five contests heading into Week 12’s game
against the Bengals, Gurley’s rushing yardage has been in
decline every week since Week 8. The worst of it came this past
week against the Bengals when Gurley got just nine carries, which
he took for a measly 19 rushing yards. It’s worth considering
that the Rams were blown out in the game which certainly limited
Gurley’s opportunities, but the consistent drop off in rushing
yards goes back a lot further than just one game.
Gurley’s production has been disappointing in recent weeks,
but he is an elite talent who has the potential for a massive
game at any time. In fact, his coming out party happened back
in Week 4 when these teams faced off for the first time in 2015.
In that game, Gurley took 19 carries for 146 yards. The Cardinals
have been very up and down against opposing running backs so far
this season, but Gurley is the only player who has rushed for
more than 100 yards against them this season. With the Rams playing
at home and the Cardinals offense banged up, there might be more
than the usual potential for Gurley to get a high workload in
this game, which means he absolutely has to be in fantasy lineups.
Passing
Game Thoughts: He’s only had three 20-plus point
fantasy days this season, but Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith
has also done a great job of avoiding bad games. Aside from dreadful
Week 2 performance against the top-ranked Broncos defense, Smith
has scored at least 13 fantasy points in every other game. This
past week, Smith threw for 255 yards and two touchdowns against
a good Buffalo defense. Perhaps most importantly, though, is that
Smith looked to his top two targets – Jeremy Maclin and
Travis Kelce – to do the majority of the damage. Both players
scored a touchdown and while Kelce had a solid 69 yards receiving,
it was Maclin’s season-best 160 receiving yards that should
be grabbing the attention of fantasy owners. Maclin had not caught
more than three passes in a game since Week 5, so it’s good
to see him step up and get back in sync with his quarterback.
Owners of members of the Kansas City passing game will be hoping
that their breakout performances in Week 12 can continue here
in Week 13 in what is an ideal matchup against an awful Oakland
secondary. The Raiders have given up the sixth-most fantasy points
per game to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, including
five games of 20 or more fantasy point to the position. This past
week, it was Titans rookie Marcus Mariota who threw three touchdown
passes against the Raiders. Smith is a borderline QB1 this week
in this excellent matchup, but perhaps most importantly, he is
an extremely safe option. Perhaps the most interesting player
in this game, though, will be Kelce who goes up against a defense
that has given up the second-most fantasy points and 11 touchdowns
to opposing tight ends already this year. This past week, they
gave up nine receptions for a season-worst 133 yards and a touchdown
to Delanie Walker and the other Tennessee tight ends. With Smith
prone to throw to his tight ends anyway, this looks like a potentially
huge game for Kelce who is firmly locked in as a TE1.
Running Game Thoughts: Injuries have been a major story for the
Kansas City backfield this season, but what’s been even
more interesting is that the team continues to get production
seemingly no matter who is lined up in the backfield. This past
week, it was Spencer Ware who had a huge game, rushing for 114
yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. This came just one week after
Ware took over for an injured Charcandrick West. Ware has now
rushed for 220 yards and three touchdowns in his past two games
and may have worked himself into a more significant role even
after West returns. West does look likely to play this week, but
may still be a bit limited with the hamstring injury that kept
him out against the Bills this past week. West, however, has been
very effective when he’s been on the field, so it would
be tough to envision a scenario where he took a backseat to Ware
even if both players are available.
The Kansas City backfield does have a great matchup here in Week
13 against the Raiders. Oakland has given up the 9th-most fantasy
points to opposing running backs this season. More importantly,
though, is that they’ve given up some absolutely huge fantasy
days to the position. Opposing teams’ running backs have
scored 28 or more fantasy points (standard scoring) in four different
contests this year. With Kansas City playing as well as they have
been lately and the Oakland defense not exactly playing well,
there is real potential here for some big fantasy points, even
if Ware and West split touches. If West is unable to play, Ware
is a potential RB1 while if West plays, he probably becomes the
more desirable fantasy option, but both players are solid RB2’s.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The breakout season for second-year quarterback
Derek Carr continued this past week when he had another big game
against a good Tennessee defense. Carr lit up the scoreboards
with 330 yards and three touchdowns while avoiding throwing an
interception. Carr has now brought his season total to an impressive
24 touchdowns with just six interceptions. With Carr’s success
has come the impressive rookie season for wide receiver Amari
Cooper. Cooper struggled in Week 11 when he caught just one pass,
but got right back into stride against the Titans by catching
seven passes for 115 yards. Across from Cooper has been veteran
Michael Crabtree whose 61 receptions and six touchdowns are both
team highs. Both Crabtree and Cooper continue to be WR2’s
on a week-to-week basis while Carr has ascended all the way up
to being the eighth-highest-scoring fantasy QB and a viable streaming
option at the very least, if not an every week starter.
Carr and the Raiders do have a tough matchup in Week 13, though,
as they host a red hot Chiefs defense. The Chiefs did allow a
three-touchdown, 291-yard day to Tyrod Taylor this past week,
but much of that came on well-covered, contested throws down the
field where Sammy Watkins just made unbelievable catches. Prior
to that game, the Chiefs had not allowed an opposing quarterback
to throw for multiple touchdowns against them since all the way
back in Week 5. Still, Carr and the Raiders are throwing the ball
often enough that a two-touchdown game is certainly not out of
the question, especially since the game is happening in Oakland
and not Kansas City. If the Raiders hope to win this game, they’ll
need to pass the ball early and often, so don’t be too worried
– roll out Carr, Cooper and Crabtree in your lineups as
usual.
Running Game Thoughts: It’s been a tough few weeks for
running back Latavius Murray. Murray has had some nice games this
season, but his past three games have been disappointing. Murray
has totaled just 135 rushing yards in those three games combined
while scoring just one touchdown. Part of that has been due to
gameflow as he only got 12 and 13 carries in Weeks 10 and 11,
but his 59 rushing yards on 22 carries against the Titans a week
ago has to be a bit concerning. Still, the talent is definitely
there and he’s going to be successful more often than not
if he gets that type of workload.
The chances of Murray getting 20 carries here in Week 13 seem
slim, however, as he’ll be up against a Kansas City defense
has been excellent against the run. The Chiefs have allowed more
than 100 rushing yards in just two games this season and have
not allowed a team’s running backs to get to the century
mark since Week 7. Worse yet, aside from a dreadful Week 4 performance
against the Bengals, the Chiefs have allowed just one rushing
touchdown in their other 11 games combined. Still, Murray does
have a good history against the Chiefs. In his two games against
the Chiefs in 2014, Murray rushed for 171 yards and two touchdowns
– and that was on only 16 total carries. Certainly the Chiefs
are playing better in 2015 than they did in 2014, but Murray is
the only player in this backfield who is touching the ball on
a regular basis and should be able to produce RB2 numbers even
in a tough matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Rumors that the Broncos have decided to
go with Brock Osweiler even if Peyton Manning gets healthy are
becoming stronger by the week as the young quarterback continues
to impress. Osweiler’s fantasy numbers haven’t been
spectacular, but he’s done something that Manning was unable
to do by limiting his turnovers. Wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders
did a great job this past week with Osweiler under center, catching
six passes for 113 yards after missing time with an ankle injury.
Tight ends Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis have also had their moments
with Osweiler under center. Unfortunately, Osweiler’s position
in the lineup seems to be having a negative on one player –
perhaps the most talented player in the entire offense, Demaryius
Thomas. Thomas has caught a total of just 11 passes for 166 yards
and one touchdown in Osweiler’s three starts. Things got
bad this past week when Thomas hauled in just one of the 12 targets
that came his way from Osweiler. Certainly the Patriots have a
history of taking away their opposition’s top offensive
weapon, but this is still becoming concerning.
In Week 13, Thomas, Osweiler and the Broncos have what should
be considered a plus matchup against a struggling San Diego defense
that allowed Blake Bortles and the Jaguars to throw for 329 yards
and two touchdowns against them just this past week. The Broncos
will likely lean more heavily on their running game than the Jaguars
did, but this is still a potentially good situation for the Broncos’
passing game. Look for Osweiler to continue to heavily target
his top two targets, Thomas and Sanders, who remain viable starters
in all formats. Unfortunately it’s tough to trust anyone
else in this passing game due to the inconsistent target numbers
that seem to come to everyone other than Sanders and Thomas.
Running Game Thoughts: After nearly an entire season of awful
running back performances, the Broncos might have finally found
something that works. Utilizing nearly an even split of Ronnie
Hillman and C.J. Anderson, the Broncos lit up the Patriots defense
to the tune of 172 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. This
came a week after the duo rushed for 161 yards against the Bears.
While Anderson was more successful this past week, the Broncos
coaches have been very open about Hillman still being the top
dog in the backfield. Anderson has been so disappointing that
it’s tough to trust him, but things seem to be coming together
for the Denver running game now that they are running significantly
more plays from under center versus out of the shotgun or pistol
formations.
Nevertheless, both players should see significant playing time
and could be viable fantasy assets this week as the Broncos head
to San Diego to go up against a Chargers defense that has been
horrendous against the run this season. The Chargers have given
up more fantasy points to running backs than any other team in
the league. That includes a whopping eight games where they’ve
given up 19 or more fantasy points (standard scoring) to the position.
While they did have their best day of the year against the run
this past week when they held the Jaguars’ backs to just
59 rushing yards and no touchdowns, it’s hard to believe
that they’ve suddenly turned the corner to become a quality
run defense. With the Broncos’ passing game is working more
efficiently, their running game has been even better. It wouldn’t
be at all surprising to see another 35-plus carry game for the
duo of Hillman and Anderson which should make both players potential
fantasy starters.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Fantasy owners who questioned and sat Philip
Rivers after his disastrous performance against the Chiefs in
Week 11 were kicking themselves once the veteran passer reminded
them what he is capable of in Week 12. Rivers threw for exactly
300 yards and four touchdowns in an impressive road victory over
the Jaguars. For Rivers, it was his eighth multiple-touchdown
game of the season. He has now totaled 23 touchdown passes on
the year with just eight interceptions – a total which probably
would be even better if the team hadn’t suffered numerous
injuries to some of their top pass catchers. Stevie Johnson seems
to be locked in as the team’s top possession receiver right
now while tight end Antonio Gates remains the primary red zone
threat in this high-powered passing attack, which makes both players
very viable fantasy options. Unfortunately, no one else has emerged
to give fantasy owners a reliable third player to start in the
offense, especially now that Malcom Floyd is back on the field
and eating into the playing time of Dontrelle Inman.
Don’t expect a repeat of the Chargers’ huge Week
12 passing performance, though, as they will be up against a Denver
defense that has been nothing short of extraordinary against opposing
passing games so far in 2015. The Broncos have given up by far
the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this
season and that’s even after allowing Tom Brady to throw
for three touchdowns against them a week ago. The Broncos have
been unbelievably good throughout most of the season, though,
and they’ve actually held opposing quarterbacks to single
digit fantasy days (standard scoring) in six of their 11 contests.
While Philip Rivers has been very good this season, this might
be one of the weeks where fantasy owners want to look elsewhere.
His upside just is not high enough in this very difficult matchup.
Worse yet, the Broncos have allowed just one – yes, one
– touchdown to an opposing wide receivers on the year. Johnson
might have a decent day in PPR formats but his standard scoring
upside is not enough to rely on him is anything other than a WR3
or Flex play against this ridiculously good Denver secondary.
Running Game Thoughts: Once considered an excellent option at
least in PPR formats, Chargers running back Danny Woodhead has
recently become difficult to even consider for fantasy purposes.
Woodhead has not taken double-digit carries since all the way
back in Week 1, which hasn’t been a problem because he had
been catching so many passes, but his usage in the passing game
has been very spotty in recent weeks. He’s had two six-catch
games in his past four contests, but totaled just three receptions
in the other two games combined. With Woodhead’s usage down,
the Chargers have given an increased workload to rookie Melvin
Gordon who has touched the ball a total of 72 times in his past
four weeks – that’s more than double the amount of
touches that Woodhead has seen during the same stretch.
Gordon, Woodhead and the Chargers are in for a tough battle in
Week 13 as they will be up against a Denver defense that has allowed
just one team to rush for more than 100 yards against them on
the year. While it’s true that Denver has been very giving
to opposing running backs near the goal line and they’ve
given up a total of 13 touchdowns to the position on the year,
the Chargers have not exactly been effective at getting their
running backs into the end zone. In fact, the duo of Woodhead
and Gordon has just two total rushing touchdowns on the year and
both of them came back in Week 1 when Woodhead scored twice. Neither
Gordon no Woodhead has a huge upside this week, but Woodhead does
have some value in PPR formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Falcons have not scored more than 21
points in the course of their four-game losing streak, which has
hurt both their playoff chances and the championship hopes of
some fantasy owners. Matt Ryan threw for only 230 yards with one
touchdown and two interceptions last week against the Vikings,
has tossed eight scores and eight picks over his last five games,
and is now outside the top-15 in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, Julio Jones continues to lead all of football in catches
and receiving yards, but hasn’t scored in three games and
now trails DeAndre Hopkins in fantasy scoring. The last time Jones
did find the end zone? Week 8 against Tampa. In that game –
the start of Atlanta’s losing streak – Ryan threw
for nearly 400 yards with a pair of touchdowns, and that history
is part of the reason why he’s a lower-tier QB1 this week
against the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay has mostly average numbers when it comes to defending
the pass, ranking between 13th and 17th in four major categories:
yards allowed, yards per pass attempt given up, sacks, and interceptions.
However, there is one important category in which they’ve
struggled – touchdown throws surrendered. The Bucs are 28th
in the league in that category, a big reason why they have allowed
the 11th-most fantasy points to both quarterbacks and wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman
sat out last week’s game against the Vikings due to a concussion,
but he has practiced this week and all signs point to him being
in the lineup, which is very good news for his fantasy owners.
Tevin Coleman was good against Minnesota, with over 100 rushing
yards, but Freeman has been a monster this year, and had 131 total
yards in Atlanta’ Week 8 tilt with Tampa.
Freeman is obviously a RB1 this week, even with a tough match-up,
as the Buccaneers have become one of the league’s better
units against the run. They rank 12th in rushing yards permitted,
sixth in touchdowns allowed, and third in yards per carry given
up. Additionally, only a pair of teams has ceded fewer receiving
yards to running backs, and Tampa has allowed the 11th-fewest
fantasy points to players at that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Two weeks ago, Jameis Winston threw for
five touchdowns against the Eagles, but had a precipitous drop
in production last week versus the Colts, with only one touchdown
and 245 yards to go with one interception. The rookie has seven
touchdown throws over his last five games, but with most of those
coming in one contest, Winston’s production is clearly unstable.
Mike Evans is the most viable fantasy option in the Tampa passing
game, but he has just a pair of touchdowns this year and has also
been inconsistent. This week, Winston is best left on the bench,
and Evans should be considered a WR2 against an Atlanta team that
has been very good defending the pass. The Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
disappearing act continues as the tight is repeatedly labeled
as “limited” in practice sessions during the week
but can’t get on the field on Sunday’s.
The Falcons are tied for the fewest sacks in the league, but are
15th in pass defense, and rank among the NFL’s 10 best teams
when it comes to touchdowns given up, yards per pass attempt allowed,
and interceptions. That has generally made Atlanta a tough team
to rack up fantasy points against, as they have surrendered the
second-fewest points to both quarterbacks and wideouts, but the
eighth-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin
picked up 97 more rushing yards last week in Tampa’s loss
to Indianapolis, putting him over 1,000 yards for the season.
He is second behind Adrian Peterson in rushing yards and trails
only Devonta Freeman and Peterson in fantasy points. Martin still
has just three rushing scores this year, and struggled against
the Falcons in Week 8, amassing just 78 total yards, but he’s
a RB1 this week versus the Falcons, who have been unable to stop
opposing ball carriers from finding the end zone.
Atlanta is fourth in the NFL in run defense and sixth in yards
per carry allowed, but mystifyingly rank 31st in touchdown runs
ceded. The Falcons have also allowed more receptions and receiving
yards to running backs than any other squad, which is why –
despite the limited yards they’ve given up – only
two teams have surrendered more fantasy points to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton did little through the air in
his team’s blowout win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving,
throwing for just 183 yards without a score, but then again he
didn’t have to do much with his team taking a big lead due
to their defense. Newton did find the end zone via the ground,
something his fantasy owners had to appreciate, and the versatile
quarterback is now second at his position in fantasy scoring.
He and tight end Greg Olsen are the team’s fantasy stars,
and their match-up with New Orleans this week is one their fantasy
owners should be looking forward to. When the two teams last played,
in Week 3, Newton had over 300 passing yards, ran for a score,
and threw a pair of touchdowns to Olsen. Simply put, there is
no better match-up for the duo than the Saints.
For their part, New Orleans didn’t completely implode defensively
last week, though they remained pliable against a Texans offense
that isn’t necessarily one of the NFL’s most exhilarant.
The Saints’ specific defensive rankings matter little because
they are all horrid, and as such they have allowed more fantasy
points to quarterbacks and tight ends than any other team, and
plenty of points to wide receivers as well.
Running Game Thoughts: Newton is
an effective at the goal line, as proven by his seven touchdowns.
The only issue with that is Jonathan Stewart is left with the
breadcrumbs, so to speak. He is ninth in fantasy scoring among
running backs, but has just four touchdowns on the season and
it is hard to recommend him for anything more than a RB2 because
of it – even against New Orleans.
While the Saints’ run defense hasn’t been quite as
grotesque as their pass defense this year, it’s still been
pretty dismal. The team is 15th in the league in rushing scores
allowed, but that’s mostly because their opponents throw
for touchdowns with such regularity. New Orleans is 30th in rushing
yards allowed, 31st in yards per carry surrendered, and only San
Diego has given up more fantasy points to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The past two games have been difficult ones
for Drew Brees and his fantasy owners. The veteran quarterback
has thrown for a total of 437 yards with a pair of touchdowns
and three interceptions, meager totals compared to the 900 yards
and 10 scores he threw in his previous two games. Brees remains
a viable fantasy option in most contests, as do wideouts Brandin
Cooks and Willie Snead, but Snead may not play this week due to
a calf injury, and the match-up with the Panthers limits the potential
output of Brees and his pass-catchers.
Carolina and New Orleans are on opposite ends of the spectrum
when it comes to pass defense. While the Saints have been mind-numbingly
bad against the pass, the Panthers are in the league’s top-five
in yards allowed, touchdowns permitted, sacks, interceptions,
and yards per pass attempt surrendered. Fantasy-wise, they have
only had occasional trouble with tight ends, and have given up
the sixth-fewest points to both quarterbacks and wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: The Saints
have been down early in each of their last two games, meaning
there has been little work for Mark Ingram. He’s amassed
just 14 carries in the pair of contests, but did catch nine passes
and picked up 195 total yards. Ingram remains in the top-five
in fantasy scoring at his position, and even with a difficult
match-up should be a fantasy starter against Carolina.
The Panthers were dominant against the run in their game last
week against the Cowboys, and Carolina is now tied for second
in the NFL in run defense. They are also 12th in rushing scores
permitted and eighth in yards per carry allowed. As one might
expect, the Panthers have been stingy in allowing fantasy points
to running backs, having given up the 10th-fewest in the league
to players at that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles threw for 329 yards and two
touchdowns with one interception in his team’s loss to the
Chargers last week, but it was his fourth 300-plus-yard game of
the year, each of which has come in his last seven games. Bortles
is sixth in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks, and has helped
the trio of Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas become
every-week fantasy starters. Hurns (concussion) is unlikely to
play this week, but Bortles, along with Robinson, who accumulated
113 yards against the Titans two weeks ago, and Thomas, who scored
in that same game, should be in fantasy lineups against Tennessee.
Oddly, the Titans are sixth in the league in pass defense, but
rank 29th in yards per pass attempt allowed. It hasn’t hurt
them too much though – Tennessee is still 17th in touchdowns
given up, 13th in interceptions and fourth in sacks. They have
allowed three rushing scores by quarterbacks, which is part of
the reason they have permitted the 12th-most fantasy points in
the NFL to players at that position, and they’ve also surrendered
the ninth-most points to tight ends, but are 16th in points allowed
to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: At some point,
T.J. Yeldon may become an effective fantasy option, but it won’t
be in 2015. The rookie from Alabama had had a couple nice games,
and did amass a season-high 46 receiving yards last week, but
has only one score on the year and is nothing more than a very
low-tier flex option versus the Titans. The Jaguars simply don’t
use him around the goaline, capping his fantasy upside.
Tennessee has the NFL’s 17th-ranked run defense, and they
are 21st in rushing touchdowns surrendered despite placing 10th
in yards per carry allowed. However, they haven’t allowed
a running back to catch a touchdown, and no team has given up
fewer receiving yards to backs, which is why the Titans have allowed
the fourth-fewest fantasy points in the league to opposing runners.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota threw three touchdowns last
week in his team’s loss to Oakland, but also tossed a pair
of interceptions and managed only 218 yards, continuing an up-and-down
season for the rookie. The Titans are 2-8, and as such are void
of playmakers or fantasy options with the lone exception of tight
end Delanie Walker. He picked up 91 receiving yards last week,
and two weeks ago against Jacksonville amassed 109 yards. Walker
is seventh at his position in fantasy scoring and is a TE1 this
week against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville ranks 26th in the NFL against the pass, 23rd in passing
scores ceded, 19th in yards per pass attempt allowed, 29th in
interceptions, and 16th in sacks. Those middling numbers have
led to a plethora of fantasy points, as the Jags have surrendered
the fifth-most points in the league to quarterbacks and seventh-most
points to tight ends, though they have been better than the league
average in points allowed to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Some initial
hope that Antonio Andrews might be able to be a mid-season savior
for some fantasy owners should have dissipated. Over his last
three contests, Andrews’ rushing totals have looked like
this: 8 yards, 78 yards, and 32 yards. He may be good as an occasional
flex option, which is how he should be viewed this week against
Jacksonville. Dexter McCluster (knee) continues to be sidelined
and while David Cobb has yet to see a significant role in the
offense, he may get more opportunities in the last four games
of the season.
The Jaguars have the league’s sixth-ranked run defense,
and no team has held ball-carriers to fewer yards per attempt,
but the team is still 21st in rushing scores permitted. They’ve
also permitted the seventh-most receiving yards in the NFL to
running backs, and have given up the 13th-most fantasy points
to players at that position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andy Dalton got his Bengals back on the
winning track with a 3-touchdown performance in Week 12 against
a tough Rams defense. A.J. Green caught two of those scoring passes
sandwiched around a Tyler Eifert touchdown. Eifert, who later
left the game with a neck stinger, has a league leading 12 touchdown
receptions. He’s questionable for Week 13, so his owners
should be checking the news and have plan B ready to go. A.J.
Green has had an up and down season, but is still capable of big
weeks like this past one. It’s not so much Green’s
fault that he’ll have a quiet game from time to time, but
rather it’s a testament to just how many weapons the Bengals
have on offense with Mohamad Sanu, Marvin Jones, Brandon Tate
also in the mix along with two capable pass catchers at the running
back position. With Dalton cutting down on his turnovers and wisely
taking advantage of the team’s skill position players, he’s
developed into a weekly fantasy option. Especially in weeks like
this one where he faces a paper soft defense.
The Browns will be fielding the 25th ranked pass defense in Cleveland
when they face the Bengals. The unit is allowing 265.2 yards per
game and has given up 23 TDs through the air. This defense is
so bad that Matt Schaub was able to throw for a pair of scores
against them last week. Schaub did of course throw an obligatory
pick-six in the process, but even with including the two picks
from Mr. Interception on Monday Night, the Browns only have 8
interceptions on the season.
Running Game Thoughts: The Bengals
have been a pure RBBC with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard and
both have been mostly effective in their roles. Hill had his best
rushing game in a while gaining 86 yards on 16 carries after struggling
to even approach 4 yards per carry at any time this season. He
didn’t find the endzone which has been the only thing providing
him with fantasy value, but he did add another 14 yards through
the air to total 100 yards on the day. Bernard meanwhile was the
one struggling to move the ball on the ground last week gaining
only 16 yards on his 10 carries, but he did add 51 yards through
the air. With Hill suffering from an ankle sprain last week, it
is possible Bernard can see an uptick in carries this week, but
otherwise the Bengals seem content to limit his carries and keep
him fresh, despite him being the more effective back most weeks.
The last time these two teams met up it was Bernard being the
more effective running back, but this could be a week where both
running backs see success with the 31st ranked Browns’ run
defense being the opposition. The Browns’ defense is allowing
135.6 yards per game on the ground and has yielded 9 rushing touchdowns.
This is what we liked to call a “dream matchup” during
an important fantasy week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Head Coach Mike Pettine demoted Johnny Manziel
to third string last week as a result of Manziel partying photos
showing up on social media, so it was UDFA and former Ram Austin
Davis that came in for relief after Josh McCown left due to injury.
McCown suffered a broken collarbone and is lost for the season,
creating an interesting dilemma for the team. Should they go with
their first round pick Manziel as was the original plan before
the photos leaked or let a guy that realistically has no future
with the team mop up for the rest of the season? The Browns of
course named Davis the starting quarterback. Davis started off
playing well for the Rams last season before quickly falling apart
and he has never been viewed as a long term starter in this league.
He did lead the Browns to a late touchdown that temporarily put
them in the lead with a nice pass to Travis Benjamin. Benjamin
is quietly the fantasy WR 16 on the season and has played well
no matter which quarterback has been under center and will likely
remain a viable fantasy option. It will remain to be seen whether
tight end Gary Barnidge gets the love from Davis that he had from
McCown, but with the dearth of weapons in this passing game he
should continue to see a good number of targets.
Back in Week 9 on the road against a tough Bengals’ defense,
Manziel completed less than 50% of his passes for only 168 yards
with a touchdown and no interceptions, but also gained 31 yards
on the ground. Davis isn’t likely to do any worse than that,
but doesn’t have the upside to do much more. The Bengal
defense is allowing 243.5 passing yards per game while giving
up 15 passing touchdowns and grabbing 14 interceptions on the
season.
Running Game Thoughts: Isaiah Crowell
looked like one of the worst running backs in the league last
Monday Night, gaining only 7 yards on his 7 carries and leaving
yards on the field. Head Coach Mike Pettine has expressed a desire
to get the rookie Johnson more involved, but so far that hasn’t
materialized. At this point, it seems insane for the team to continue
trotting out the ineffective Crowell and should turn to the rookie
and/or second year UDFA Glenn Winston who was activated from the
PUP list prior to Week 10 and is said to have “shown a lot
of the practice field”. Of course, insanity has been a trademark
of the Browns since they’ve come back into the league.
Not that anyone would be expecting much from a Cleveland back,
but any expectations should be tempered against a Bengals team
that has been very strong against the run. The Bengals have limited
the opposition to 99.8 yards per game this season with only 4
rushing touchdowns allowed.
Passing
Game Thoughts: So maybe Blaine Gabbert can play after all?
Perhaps he will never be the franchise quarterback he was drafted
to be, but he has shown that he’s a legitimate backup level
quarterback, and at this point it’s fair to say that he
could head into 2016 as the Niners’ starting QB. In three
games he’s completing 65% of his passes for 767 yards with
4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s also showing some
mobility and a willingness to attack downfield as is shown by
his more than respectable 8.1 yards per attempt. He’s also
achieved all of this with a less than stellar supporting cast.
Anquan Boldin is still his dependable self, but at 35 years of
age the end is near. The underachieving Torrey Smith and backup
level tight ends are drawing targets from “Sunshine”
Gabbert. Garrett Celek who was the starting tight-end after Vernon
Davis was shipped to Denver, went down early last week opening
up the door for former second round pick Vance McDonald who caught
6 balls for 71 yards and a touchdown. This followed up a 4-65-1
game at Seattle the week before, making McDonald a viable option
for teams that lost Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham last week.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has the Bears’ defense
playing better than anyone could have realistically expected prior
to the season and is likely looking forward to facing the team
that passed him up for a head coaching position after letting
Jim Harbaugh go. The pass defense is the second ranked unit in
the league allowing only 214.5 yards per game. However, the Bears
have allowed 20 passing touchdowns on the season, so this defense
is not a death knell for opposing fantasy quarterbacks or pass
catchers.
Running Game Thoughts: As if the
re-emergence of Blaine Gabbert wasn’t shocking enough, career
journeyman Shaun Draughn is also making himself relevant in his
new home in the bay area. Draughn played every snap last week
and looked quick and shifty while amassing 88 total yards of offense.
With Carlos Hyde still recovering from a stress fracture in his
foot, it’s likely that Draughn will finish out the season
as the 49ers’ feature back. While expecting big production
would probably be a little ambitious, with all the injuries to
running backs this season, getting solid production is enough
for many fantasy owners.
The Bears have been one of the league’s worst run defenses
in 2015 allowing 128.5 yards per game on the ground. They have
however allowed only 3 rushing touchdowns on the season however.
The 49ers should be able to put up some rushing stats in a game
that should remain close.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In what could only be viewed as a Thanksgiving
Day miracle, Jay Cutler outplayed Aaron Rodgers and lead his team
to a victory in historic Lambeau Field. Cutler only threw for
200 yards and a touchdown, but he played well within the Bears’
conservative offense. He has resurrected his career under head
coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase to the point
that he’ll most likely be asked back to lead the team next
season, something that almost didn’t even happen this season.
Alshon Jeffrey has missed five games with various ailments but
has been highly productive when healthy and is by far the teams’
most dangerous weapon in the passing game. Expect another conservative
gameplan based heavily on the running game in a game that should
be low scoring and close throughout.
The 49ers pass defense hasn’t been very good this year allowing
276.8 passing yards per game and 17 scores through the air, but
they did hold Carson Palmer and the high powered Cardinal passing
attack in check last week. Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte
returned last week and found himself in a timeshare with rookie
Jeremy Langford who was very productive in Forte’s absence.
Langford totaled 366 yards and 3 touchdowns in his three games
as starter and had 48 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries last
week. He also caught a five-yard pass. Forte did less with more,
gaining 44 yards on 15 carries and catching a nine-yard pass.
Forte is 30 years old and may not be back with the team next season
so Langford should continue to see time at the veteran’s
expense. Fantasy owners are not likely to be very happy but the
Bears offense should be much better off with two good backs in
the mix.
The 49ers should give the Bears an opportunity to use both backs
effectively. They are a below average run defense, allowing 121
yards per game and 12 rushing touchdowns on the season. Ideally
the Bears will be looking to exploit their advantage and run the
ball which is a formula that has worked well for them this season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Russell Wilson won his first shootout type
game last week against Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Wilson threw for 345 yards and a career high 5 touchdowns with
three of them going to Doug Baldwin. Baldwin is a solid wide receiver,
but isn’t a prototypical WR1 type. He’s in the midst
of best season however and has always had a good rapport with
Wilson. With Marshawn Lynch injured and the Seattle defense not
being what it once was, it’s only natural that Russell Wilson
would need to take the next step and be asked to carry the offense
a little more, and that’s just what he’s done the
last two weeks bringing Seattle past the .500 mark. The Seahawks
did suffer a major blow to their passing game however when Jimmy
Graham was lost for the season with a ruptured patellar tendon.
Graham wasn’t quite the focal point of the offense like
he was in New Orleans, but he was still a dangerous weapon that
opposing defenses needed to account for. Third-year player, Luke
Willson, who has shown some flashes in the past will move into
the starting role and could have some value down the stretch of
the season.
The Vikings’ pass defense is a top 5 unit, allowing 223.7
yards per game and 14 touchdown passes on the season. The Vikings
haven’t been able to force many interceptions (8) which
is something that Russell Wilson isn’t known for anyway.
The Vikings have played extremely well so far at home, and will
need to cool off what is suddenly a hot passing offense. Without
Graham, the Seahawks really don’t have a pass catcher that
can create mismatches with the possible exception of rookie Tyler
Lockett, so the Vikings should be able to keep the passing game
in check.
Running Game Thoughts: UDFA Thomas
Rawls has done a more than adequate impersonation of Beast Mode,
keeping the Seattle ground game in tact after the team lost what
many considered its best offensive player in Marshawn Lynch. Rawls
does not run quite as violently as Lynch but at 5’9”
and 215 pounds his compact frame allows him to run with power
and he has enough acceleration and speed to get to the second
level when the holes are there. He’s averaging 5.6 yards
per carry and has three 100-yard games (with one of them exceeding
200 yards) and 3 touchdowns in the five games where he’s
seen at least 15 carries.
The Vikings will present a stiff challenge to the Seahawk run
game as they are allowing only 110.6 rushing yards per game on
the season with only five scores on the ground. The Seahawks will
really need their running game to get going in this tough matchup,
despite their recent surge in passing, especially with a weapon
like Graham not drawing defensive attention.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Teddy Bridgewater is in the midst of an
underwhelming sophomore campaign after a mostly productive rookie
season. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s antiquated offensive
scheme does not play to Bridgewater’s strengths and the
team has wisely relied on their defense and top rushing attack
to win games. Bridgewater is a smart accurate quarterback that
could flourish in a short quick passing offense that is prevalent
throughout the league but has shown struggles when asked to attack
downfield. Bridgewater is only averaging 271.3 passing yards per
game and only has 8 passing touchdowns on the season. On the positive
side he has continued to impress with his mobility (2 rushing
touchdowns) and has only thrown for 7 interceptions on the season.
Rookie Stefon Diggs is the most targeted receiver in this offense
and looks the part, but unfortunately for his owners the volume
just isn’t there. Mike Wallace and Kyle Rudolph have not
contributed much, but at least Rudolph has shown an ability to
be a safety blanket for Bridgewater and a red-zone threat. For
fantasy owners however, only Diggs really holds any interest and
with the bye weeks having passed it’s unlikely that he should
crack most competing lineu-ups.
The Seahawks pass defense is still a top ten ranked unit, allowing
232 yards per game with 11 touchdowns against, but it isn’t
the dominating unit it once was. Richard Sherman is still a corner
that fantasy owners should take heed of, but the fact that he
generally sticks to one side of the field and a slight falloff
to his game means you don’t need to necessarily bench top
receivers when Seattle is the opponent. Of course the Vikings
are likely not heading into this game looking to put up big passing
numbers anyway. Their game plans all season have revolved around
running the ball and playing tough defense, a formula that has
worked very well.
Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson
carried the Vikings’ offense on his strong shoulders last
week as he has practically every week. Peterson rushed for 158
yards and 2 touchdowns. The 30-year-old running back is not showing
any signs of age and is still showing big play ability averaging
4.9 yards per carry on the season. He has 1,164 rushing yards
and 8 scores on the season, despite the opposition knowing that
he is the focal point of the Vikings offensive scheme. No one
reading this piece likely needs to be told how great he’s
been this season or that he should be in your line-up, but I’d
be remiss in not pointing it out in a section called “Running
Game Thoughts”.
Expectations may need to be lowered a bit at least as Peterson
will face one of the better run defenses on the Vikings schedule.
The Seahawks are allowing 92.2 yards per game and 9 rushing touchdowns
on the season. This matchup, of course, will not stop the Vikings
form feeding Peterson though – and the future Hall of Famer
is matchup proof.
Passing
Game Thoughts: 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck has played surprisingly
well and is 4-0 in games where he has started in place of Andrew
Luck. Hasselbeck has thrown for 1,023 yards with 7 touchdowns
and 2 interceptions in those starts. While obviously Andrew Luck
is in no danger of losing his job when he returns from a lacerated
spleen injury, in some ways the offense has performed better with
Hasselbeck spreading the ball around and not making costly mistakes.
While T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief have lost some production
without Luck chucking the ball all over the place, Hasselbeck
has kept them fantasy relevant and productive. The loss of running
back Ahmad Bradshaw takes away a reliable safety valve for Hasselbeck,
and it could open the door for Frank Gore or one of the tight
ends, Colby Fleener or Dwayne Allen, to see a few more targets.
The young Steelers’ secondary started the season a little
better than advertised, but in recent weeks they have been lit
up by Oakland and Seattle and even allowed Johnny Manziel to have
a career game when he threw for over 300 yards in Pittsburgh.
They have been susceptible to short passing games, like the Colts
now operate, as well as deep strikes and they are starting to
look like a defensive to target from a fantasy perspective. While
no one is likely looking to start Matt Hasselbeck this week, don’t
be surprised to see him put up a nice stat line on Sunday.
Running Game Thoughts: Ahmad Bradshaw
was starting to make his mark in this backfield before making
his third consecutive trip to the season ending IR list, this
time with a wrist injury. Bradshaw’s presence was vital
because 32-year-old starter Frank Gore was starting to look every
bit of his advanced age. Head Coach Chuck Pagano eloquently described
Gore as “beat to crap” this week. Gore is fifth in
the NFL in touches and it’s starting to catch up with him
as he’s faded to the point where he may be doing more harm
than good. He earned only 24 yards on his 19 carries last week
and just can’t burst through the creases like he used to.
The team re-signed Dan Herron this week who started the season
with the team and performed well last season after moving past
Trent Richardson on the depth chart. Herron will likely be thrust
into a role right away in order to try and keep Gore as fresh
as possible.
Gore isn’t likely to be effective against the Steelers’
top ten run defense. The team is allowing only 93.6 yards per
game, and only 4 rushing touchdowns on the season. Gore is much
too beat up to run through that brick wall.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger suffered a concussion
at the end of last week. Or maybe he didn’t. There have
been conflicting reports on why Big Ben missed the last series
against the Seahawks in his shootout with Russell Wilson, but
he’s expected to be fine this week. Wide Receiver Antonio
Brown was relatively quiet as he was mostly matched up against
Richard Sherman. The Seattle secondary blanketing Brown and Martavis
Bryant allowed Markus Wheaton to have the game of his career with
9 catches for 201 yards and a touchdown. As Head Coach Mike Tomlin
explained the game situation dictated Wheaton’s big day,
so fantasy owners shouldn’t ignore three seasons of mediocrity
and go chasing those points.
This could be another shootout type game as the Colts secondary
has allowed big passing numbers this season. Opposing passing
games have put up 278 yards and nearly 2 touchdowns per game against
them. Antonio Brown owners are likely in no position to bench
him but bear in mind Brown will see his second consecutive tough
matchup with Vontae Davis likely to be on him most of the day.
Running Game Thoughts: Unlike Frank
Gore, DeAngelo Williams has not been showing his age. Williams
is averaging 4.9 yards per carry on the season and the offense
has really not missed much, if anything, during the games he has
started over Le’Veon Bell. Williams looks as quick and agile
as he has at any time during his career and is gaining yards in
chunks. He has 563 yards and six scores on the ground and the
team will run him into the ground if need be, as there isn’t
much behind him on the depth chart.
Williams will see a decent matchup against a defense that is allowing
115.1 yards per game on the ground and has yielded 9 rushing touchdowns.
With the passing game likely moving the ball well, Williams is
in line for another big game this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Brian Hoyer returned last week after missing
Week 11 with a concussion and was a highly recommended streaming
option against the league’s worst pass defense, the Saints.
Things were looking great as Hoyer tossed two early touchdowns
to Ryan Griffin and Cecil Shorts, but as the game got out of hand,
the Texans reeled in the offense and Hoyer was mostly silent the
remainder of the game. Ultimately, it was a disappointing effort
in the best possible matchup. Hoyer has been quite the respectable
passer this year, with a 3:1 touchdown to interception ratio.
It helps having DeAndre Hopkins to throw the ball to. Speaking
of Hopkins, he was also a huge disappointment last week. I thought
he was a virtual lock for at least 100 yards and a touchdown.
Instead, he finished with just 5 catches for 36 scoreless yards.
He still led the team in targets and will continue to do so going
forward.
He remains a high end WR1 this week against a Bills defense that
just got whipped around by Jeremy Maclin for 160 yards. The Bills
defense was coming off back to back impressive performances against
Tom Brady and Ryan Fitzpatrick, but took a huge step backwards
last week against the Chiefs. They are allowing 253.9 yards per
game through the air and allow the third lowest completion percentage
to opposing quarterbacks at 58.1%. This matchup does not look
good for Hoyer, but DHop should return to elite status this week.
Running Game Thoughts: Even without Arian Foster, the Texans
are still a team committed to running the football. Four different
backs received carries last week as well as Cecil Shorts. Alfred
Blue remains the lead back, having handled double digit carries
in each of his last four games and averaging 18.5 carries over
the last two. He hasn’t been particularly effective, averaging
just 3.5 yards per carry on the season, but he is the only member
of this backfield worth starting, and only has a Flex play. The
Bills have been above average in defending the run, allowing 102
yards per game, 4.2 yards per carry, and eight total touchdowns
on the season. Last week, they were gashed by Chiefs third string
RB, Spencer Ware, for 114 yards on 19 carries. Nevertheless, Blue
is not a special player and comes with a low ceiling. Don’t
get too invested in the Texans running game.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor first three games after his
MCL sprain were uninspiring, to say the least. Taylor threw just
two touchdowns across three games and it appeared as if his early
season success was just a flash in the pan. Against a red hot
Chiefs defense, I was not optimistic about his chances. Naturally,
he lit them up for 291 yards and 3 TDs. Sammy Watkins played a
huge role as he nearly tripled his output from the previous two
weeks combined, racking up 158 receiving yards on 6 catches and
2 TDs. Watkins remains supremely talented and could easily be
a top 10 receiver in the NFL. He might already be there. But that’s
real life. This is fantasy. And unfortunately, Watkins remains
on a run first offense with an inconsistent quarterback, thus
rendering him very inconsistent. Watkins is a player with one
of the widest range of outcomes between his floor and his ceiling,
making him impossible to trust as a WR1, but too explosive to
bench as a WR3 with upside. He averages out to a boom or bust
WR2, which is what he is this week against a Texans defense that
is third in the NFL in passing yards allowed at just 219.6. They
are also one of just seven teams holding opposing quarterback
completion percentages under 60%.
Running Game Thoughts: Quietly, LeSean McCoy has been a rock
solid RB1 all season. It’s rare that someone as talented
as Shady can fly under the radar, but a lot of it has to do with
perception. McCoy was banged up for much of the first half of
the season and is still perceived that way by many. As a result,
the fact that he’s gone over 100 total yards or scored a
touchdown in every game he’s played since Week 6 has gone
largely unnoticed. McCoy’s talent has never been in doubt
and now that he is fully healthy and in the right system, he is
as safe of a play as they come. Karlos Williams being ruled out
this week with a shoulder injury only helps Shady.
The Texans allow 107.5 yards per game on the ground and 4.3 yards
per carry. They have been dominant in stopping the run the past
two weeks, but they also were nursing sizable leads in those two
games, thus forcing opposing offenses to become pass heavy. Trust
Shady this week as a strong RB1.
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