Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard to find a less consistent
fantasy player than Philip Rivers in the second half of the season.
Since his team’s Week 10 bye, Rivers has either posted 20
or more points (standard scoring) or below nine points in each
of his five games. That came after the quarterback had scored
20 or more points while failing to reach 10 points just once in
six of his first nine games. Of course, much of his lack of consistency
stems from the complete shambles that his receiving group is in.
With Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson, Malcom Floyd, Antonio Gates
and Ladarius Green all having dealt with injuries throughout the
year, Rivers has been forced to search for chemistry with unproven
receivers like Dontrelle Inman and Javontee Herndon. Rivers did
throw multiple touchdowns this past week for just the second time
in his past six contests, but his three scores were also accompanied
by a pair of interceptions.
Rivers and the Chargers do have a nice matchup to look forward
to in Week 16 as they head to Oakland to face the Raiders. The
veteran passer threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns in his
previous matchup against Oakland, which was one of the best games
he’s had all season. Of course, he also threw two interceptions
in that game, so there is some reason to be concerned now that
his receivers are even more depleted than they were back in Week
7. Oakland’s pass defense started off the season in historically
bad fashion, but they have been playing significantly better as
of late. Over their past six games, the Raiders have only conceded
a total of seven touchdown passes. This past week, they held Aaron
Rodgers to just 10 fantasy points on 204 yards with one touchdown.
While the Chargers are capable of putting up big numbers in matchups
like this, there is significant risk associated this week even
for those who are playing Rivers in their fantasy championships,
but especially for those who are trusting any of his receivers
or tight ends. San Diego hasn’t seen any pass-catcher top
the 100-yard receiving mark since all the way back in Week 6 (Keenan
Allen), so it’s pretty much going to be touchdown-or-bust
for all of these Chargers receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: Just when we thought that it was safe
to start looking for fantasy production elsewhere from the San
Diego running game, Danny Woodhead reminded us that he is still
one of the more exciting playmakers at the position. Woodhead
scored a whopping four times this past week as the Chargers blew
out the Dolphins despite touching the ball just 14 times on the
day. Melvin Gordon, meanwhile, rushed for just 41 yards on 15
carries before suffering a season-ending knee injury for a meniscus
tear in his left knee. The injury put a wrap on what was an incredibly
disappointing season for the rookie who failed to reach the 100-yard
mark in any game and did not score a single touchdown despite
his 217 total offensive touches. Woodhead’s stock obviously
goes up now that Gordon is out, but those looking for an emergency
replacement for Gordon might need to look at veteran tailback
Donald Brown. Brown has seen minimal work so far this season,
but did get 12 carries which he took for 90 yards this past week.
Brown is also a better receiver than what we’ve seen from
Gordon this season, so there is a possibility that he may have
some sneaky fantasy value, especially in matchups like the one
he’ll face in Week 16. Oakland’s fantasy run defense
currently ranks dead middle-of-the-pack, but they’ve been
known to give up a few huge games to opposing running backs. In
fact, the Chargers backfield totaled 90 rushing yards when these
teams played back in Week 7, only to be topped by the 114 yards
and two touchdowns that Woodhead and Branden Oliver put up out
of the backfield in the receiving game. With the Chargers still
looking for playmakers out wide, look for them to check the ball
down to their running backs quite often in this game. PPR owners
can safely play Woodhead as a Flex, but understand that another
four touchdown game is highly unlikely from a player who had scored
just five touchdowns in his previous 14 games combined.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Derek Carr reached the 30 touchdown mark
on the season this past week when he threw for a pair of touchdowns
in a tough loss to the Packers. While he also threw two interceptions,
Carr’s numbers on the year have been excellent, especially
when compared to the extremely low yards-per-completion that he
put up as a rookie. The additions of Michael Crabtree and Amari
Cooper have obviously done wonders for this passing game as both
players are putting up good numbers most weeks. This past week,
it was Cooper who stole the show with his six receptions for 120
yards and two scores. It was Cooper’s first multiple-touchdown
game as a pro and it came just one week after he was held without
a catch against the Broncos, so fantasy owners who didn’t
trust him might have been disappointed to watch him accumulate
his highest-scoring game yet while sitting on the bench. Crabtree’s
production has been quite a bit more consistent as he has now
caught at least four passes in every game this season - something
that only he, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. have done in 2016.
The Raiders passing game continues to fly under the radar as
being an elite fantasy unit, but don’t sleep on them this
week in what is a division game with a lot of pride on the line.
The Raiders beat the Chargers earlier this season and they now
have a chance to complete the season sweep for the first time
since 2001. The Chargers have been putting up good numbers against
opposing passing games as of late, but it’s worth noting
that their last three opponents - Denver, Kansas City and Miami,
are all less-then-stellar passing games to begin with. Carr threw
for 289 yards and three touchdowns when these teams played back
in Week 7 as both Crabtree and Cooper got into the end zone. This
may not be a game worth much for the final league standings, but
it could produce some huge fantasy numbers nevertheless. Get Carr,
Cooper and Crabtree in your lineup.
Running Game Thoughts: Raiders running back Latavius Murray was
on many sleeper lists heading into the 2015 season, but he hasn’t
exactly produced the kind of numbers that those touting him had
hoped he would. Sure, he’s closing in on and will likely
surpass 1,000 rushing yards on the season and yes, it’s
very possible that he’ll approach 40 receptions, but the
overall fantasy production has only been adequate. He hasn’t
rushed for more than 100 yards since Week 8 and he’s only
scored five total touchdowns on the season, including precisely
zero multiple-touchdown games, meaning that even in his “big”
games, he’s only been producing like a low level RB1. It’s
worth noting that he’s been fairly consistent in not having
many terrible games, but the lack of high end production has made
him tough to roll out, particularly in daily formats where fantasy
owners need the possibility of huge numbers.
If there’s ever going to be a game for Murray to break
out with a huge day, though, it could be this week as he and the
Raiders host the Chargers and their 28th-ranked fantasy run defense.
The Chargers have given up double digit fantasy points to opposing
running backs (standard scoring) in all but one game this season
- and in that game against the Jaguars, they still gave up nine
points to the position. It hasn’t just come on fluky goal
line touchdowns, either. The Chargers have conceded a horrendously
awful number of ten games of 100 or more rushing yards this season.
One of those games came back in Week 7 when Murray ran for 113
yards and a score. He’s been a bit disappointing, but considering
the high number of injuries at the position, Murray remains strong
start in most formats, especially in this juicy matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Johnny Manziel continues to show signs of
being a great player, but consistency remains the biggest on-field
issue for this young quarterback. Manziel started Week 15 off
with a bang, orchestrating a long touchdown drive against the
Seahawks elite defense. From that point on, however, “Johnny
Football” failed to throw another touchdown and ended up
throwing an interception near the end of the game once the Browns
were already down multiple scores. Manziel’s top target,
tight end Gary Barnidge continues to impress and has now accumulated
at least 10 fantasy points in PPR formats in all but one game
since he broke out back in Week 3. Barnidge’s numbers have
slumped as a whole since Manziel became the starter primarily
due to him getting fewer targets, but he remains the only high
quality fantasy asset in the Cleveland offense.
Wide receiver Travis Benjamin has had some great games this season
but his complete lack of consistency has made him extremely difficult
to trust heading into championship week, even against a Kansas
City defense that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to
opposing wide receivers. Of course, a lot of those points were
given up early when they gave up a combined nine touchdowns to
the position in the first three weeks of the season, but have
since settled in, allowing only one multi-touchdown game to wide
receivers in their remaining 11 games. This past week, though,
they were exposed a bit by a struggling and broken down Baltimore
defense, and particularly Kamar Aiken, as they gave up 13 receptions
for 211 yards and a score to the Ravens receivers. One player
who could be in for a tough game, though, is Barnidge as the Chiefs
have been exceptional against the tight end position this season.
No team has given up fewer fantasy points to tight ends and they’ve
only given up one touchdown to the position in their past eight
games. Still, Barnidge is a must-start for most teams as tight
end remains the most talent-depleted position in fantasy.
Running Game Thoughts: Like their offense as a whole, the Cleveland
running game has been one of the least consistent in all of fantasy
football this season. Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell continue
to split snaps and touches with Crowell being the team’s
lead ball carrier while Johnson is more of a pass catcher. Those
who got excited by Crowell’s breakout performance in Week
14 were quickly disappointed this past week when he rushed for
just 23 yards on nine carries against Seattle. Running against
the Seattle defense has been extremely difficult, but Cleveland
falling behind multiple scores early in the game certainly didn’t
help. The gameflow did lead Johnson to catch five passes - tied
for the most catches he’s had in a game since Week 7 - but
he still accumulated only 12 PPR fantasy points.
Things won’t get much easier this week as the Browns head
to Kansas City to play against the Chiefs and their fifth-ranked
fantasy run defense. Kansas City has been terrorizing opposing
running backs, having held the position to 10 or fewer fantasy
points (standard scoring) in half of their games so far this season.
In fact, other than the terrible performance they had against
the Bengals’ running backs in Week 4, the Chiefs have given
up just two other rushing touchdowns this season. Worse yet, running
backs aren’t even rushing for good yardage against the Chiefs.
Over their past seven games, Kansas City has given up an average
of just 65 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. With
the Browns offense not performing particularly well, now is not
the time to be trusting Crowell or Johnson in your lineups unless
you’re in an absolutely desperate situation.
Passing
Game Thoughts: He’s not an elite fantasy option,
but it’s hard to argue against the success that Kansas City
quarterback Alex Smith has had this season. The former No. 1 overall
NFL Draft pick has been known as one of the league’s most
efficient passers, but he’s never been better than this.
In 424 pass attempts, Smith has been intercepted just four times
while throwing 16 touchdowns. His rushing numbers have taken a
bit of a dip this season, but he’s still putting up consistently
decent numbers as a QB2. Unfortunately, the Chiefs’ offensive
gameplan doesn’t really allow for Smith to have the high
ceiling needed to produce as a consistent QB1. Smith’s top
receiver, Jeremy Maclin, struggled through a mid-season drought
but has been consistently producing in PPR formats as of late.
Maclin has now caught at least six passes in four straight games,
including an impressive four touchdowns during that stretch. Travis
Kelce has not been nearly as predictable with his production,
but the talented young tight end continues to be an every week
starter as the position is so weak with talent.
There should be an opportunity for fantasy production here in
Week 16 as the Chiefs host a Cleveland defense that is absolutely
awful against the pass. Cleveland has been lit up man times throughout
the year, including this past week when Russell Wilson dropped
three touchdowns and 249 yards passing against them. Only four
times this season has an opposing quarterback failed to throw
for multiple touchdowns against the Browns and only twice have
they failed to score 12 or more fantasy points. Smith is one of
the safest quarterbacks in the league this week to have at least
a decent fantasy day, but because the Cleveland defense is so
bad as a whole, it’s possible that his pass attempts might
be limited as the Chiefs opt to deploy a more run-oriented gameplan.
Running Game Thoughts: It was another nice performance from the
Kansas City running game this past week when Charcandrick West
took 16 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown. It was West’s
first score since Week 10 in Denver as he has given up quite a
few goal line carries to Spencer Ware. Ware missed the Chiefs’
Week 15 game against the Ravens with a rib injury, but is expected
to return to his complementary role in the backfield this week.
Split backfields typically don’t allow for much fantasy
production, but the Chiefs have been running the ball so effectively
this season that even the dual backfield of West and Ware have
allowed fantasy owners to start both players and still get solid
fantasy numbers.
Things get even better this week as the Chiefs backfield has
one of the best possible matchups against the Browns. Cleveland
has given up the second-most rushing yardage in the league this
season and they haven’t been great as of late, either. This
past week, it was the table scrap version of the Seattle backfield
that rushed for 137 yards against the Browns on 30 attempts. With
the Chiefs expected to get out to a lead early in this game, don’t
be surprised if West and Ware combine to get somewhere near that
30-carry mark. West is the safer option due to his heavier workload,
but Ware has been getting most of the goal line work, which gives
him plenty of upside in what could end up being a blowout Kansas
City victory.
Passing
Game Thoughts: If you took the name away and just looked
at the numbers, you’d think that Alex Smith might be playing
quarterback for the Green Bay Packers right now. Aaron Rodgers
simply has not put up the elite numbers that made him a first
round fantasy pick in many drafts this season. While it’s
true that he’s been without his top wide receiver, Jordy
Nelson, it’s hard to give Rodgers a pass for the horrendous
production he’s given us, especially this past week in what
was an ideal matchup against a terrible Oakland secondary. Rodgers
barely cracked the 200-yard mark while throwing just one touchdown
and an interception. On a positive note, wide receiver James Jones
finally got back into the end zone, making just his second touchdown
reception in his past eight games after his hot start to the season.
Jones still remains an extremely risky play, but he might be the
best option in this passing game as Randall Cobb has become little
more than a middle-of-the-road PPR asset.
It’s crazy to think that it might be time to consider benching
Aaron Rodgers, but with the Packers struggling to pass the ball
even against bad defenses right now, it might not be such a bad
idea. The Cardinals have been excellent against opposing quarterbacks
this season as they’ve conceded the fifth-fewest amount
of fantasy points to the position so far this season. While they’ve
actually given up 300-yard passing days in four of their past
five games, they gave up a total of just six passing touchdowns
over that stretch. If you’re looking for a silver lining
in this matchup, it could be that nickel cornerback Tyrann Mathieu
was placed on the IR this week, potentially leaving a large void
on the defense. Cobb lines up quite a bit in the slot, so there
may be an opportunity for him to still get his numbers in what
could otherwise be a tough matchup.
Running Game Thoughts: Just when you thought Eddie Lacy was finally
starting to get things going, he absolutely crushes us one more
time, this time in the fantasy playoffs when it counts the most.
The consensus top five fantasy pick from the preseason has now
fallen all the way out of being a top-24 back in standard scoring
formats, meaning that he is officially no longer even an RB2 scorer
on the year. In fact, his perceived backup, James Starks, has
outscored him. Lacy continues to deal with a rib injury that has
limited him in practice and even in games, but the disappointment
runs a lot deeper than a simple injury. What’s been confusing
is that he’s been able to produce some “2014 Eddie
Lacy-like” numbers in a few games lately, but he’s
mixed in some absolutely dreadful games as well.
While Lacy is expected to play again this week, it’s Starks
who is substantially less risky due to his usage in the passing
game. Lacy is as much of a boom-or-bust option as we’ve
seen at running back in recent memory, but he’s playing
against an Arizona defense that has been dominant against the
run this season. Only five teams have given up fewer fantasy points
to opposing running backs than the Cardinals. Worse yet for owners
of Lacy and Starks is that the Cardinals have been incredible
against the run as of late. Over their past eight games, the Cardinals
have given up an average of just 56 rushing yards per game. In
fact, they’ve only given up one 100-yard rushing game this
season and that came back in Week 4 when Todd Gurley had his first
breakout performance.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It’s hard to be disappointed with
a 274-yard, one-touchdown performance with no interceptions, but
given all of the factors that went into making Carson Palmer’s
Week 15 matchup against the Eagles so enticing, it’s not
all that surprising that many of his fantasy owners felt underwhelmed
with what they got. Palmer has been one of the most consistent
players in all of fantasy football this season, but his performance
against the Eagles, 14 fantasy points, was his worst game thus
far. Of course, had John Brown hauled in two passes that he dropped,
Palmer could have instead approached one of his biggest games
of the season. Brown still finished with a solid day as he caught
his second touchdown in as many weeks and has now scored at least
12 PPR fantasy points in five straight games. Michael Floyd also
had a nice day, catching five passes for 70 yards and seems to
be catching fire as we head into championship week. Unfortunately,
top receiver Larry Fitzgerald has been very quiet as of late.
The future Hall of Famer has not scored a touchdown since all
the way back in Week 8 and has now failed to reach even 60 yards
receiving in three straight contests.
Even with Fitzgerald struggling, however, the Cardinals passing
game has been working well enough that all three Arizona receivers
should be strongly considered for fantasy purposes this week.
Green Bay is nothing special against the pass and with Sam Shields
looking unlikely to play, there should be plenty of room for these
playmaking pass catchers to do some damage. The Green Bay offense
should be good enough that the Cardinals do have to score some
points, so there’s real possibility that Palmer throws the
ball 40 or more times in this game, which would almost certainly
make Palmer himself worth starting along with at least two of
his receivers. This offense has gotten many fantasy owners this
far, so now isn’t the time to be doubting them.
Running Game Thoughts: The high-powered Arizona passing game
has consistently opened up the running game for whoever is toting
the rock for the Cardinals this season and now that rookie David
Johnson is getting his chance to shine, we may be looking at the
running back of the present and future. Johnson has been nothing
short of a fantasy stud since taking over the starting role in
Arizona and has now accumulated a whopping 69 fantasy points (standard
scoring) in just his past three games. With his monstrous 187
rushing yards, 40-point day, Johnson has now moved all the way
up to being a top 10 fantasy scorer at the position on the year
despite having been the backup or even third string running back
for the majority of the season.
Johnson now has an opportunity to build off of what he’s
been doing in what is expected to be a very competitive, high-scoring
affair against the Packers. Green Bay has given up double digit
fantasy points (standard scoring) to opposing running backs in
five straight games heading into this Week 16 matchup and they
were recently lit up for 162 yards by Darren McFadden and the
Cowboys. While the Cardinals remain a pass-heavy offense, Johnson
gives them the kind of balance that they need to make a Super
Bowl run and with playoff seeding on the line, the Cardinals have
no reason to not keep the pedal to the metal. Expect Johnson to
get a heavy workload of at least 20 touches in this game, which
should make him one of the better and safer fantasy plays in your
championship week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Case Keenum and the St. Louis passing game
finally came to life this past week as the Rams surprisingly beat
Tampa Bay, who still had playoff aspirations. Keenum had his best
game so far, throwing for 234 yards and two touchdowns while avoiding
any turnovers. Unfortunately, the solid fantasy day for Keenum
did not mean great production for his pass catchers as his top
receiver, Jared Cook, caught just four passes for 64 yards. The
only fantasy relevant player in the passing game continues to
be Tavon Austin. Austin caught just three passes for 41 yards,
but he also ran the ball four times for 32 yards and an additional
touchdown. Austin has been wildly inconsistent as a receiver,
but the handful of carries that he gets each game has helped supplement
his scoring and turn him into a viable flex play at the very least.
Now is most certainly not the time to be getting excited about
the St. Louis passing game after just one good performance as
they head to Seattle to face the Legion of Boom. The Seahawks
have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks
this season and they’ve been absolutely humiliating them
as of late. Not since Week 12 have the Seahawks allowed even 10
fantasy points to a quarterback. Sure, a lot of that has been
because they’ve been against some of the worst passing games
in the league, but Keenum and the Rams certainly fit that bill.
Seattle has only conceded 12 passing touchdowns this season, so
a big game from Keenum is almost impossible and the only person
who should even be considered for fantasy purposes in Week 16
is Austin. Even then, the Rams could opt to gameplan to shut down
Austin as they did back in Week 1 when they held him to two catches
for negative two yards.
Running Game Thoughts: He went through a bit of a dry spell in
Weeks 12 and 13, but the potential Rookie of the Year returned
to fantasy glory over the past two weeks, rushing for a total
of 198 yards and three touchdowns while adding another 38 yards
as a receiver. Unfortunately, his yards per carry this past week
were a big disappointment as he rushed for just 48 yards on 21
carries. He did save his fantasy day with a touchdown, but there
is some concern that the Rams have been so inefficient with their
running game lately, aside from the monster game Gurley had against
the Lions back in Week 14. The lack of passing game in St. Louis
has meant that Gurley has faced a ton of stacked boxes, meaning
that even when he does find a hole to run through, it’s
being filled up quickly.
Given the unpredictable nature of most of the running back situations
throughout the league, Gurley’s massive usage has made him
a must-start every week even in tough matchups. He’ll have
another one of those this week as he goes up against the league’s
best fantasy run defense, the Seahawks. Seattle has been extraordinary
against the run this season. Even facing great rush offenses like
Pittsburgh and Minnesota, the Seahawks have held everyone they’ve
faced in check. In fact, no team has rushed for more than 70 yards
against this defense since all the way back in Week 10. Gurley
is a beast and still a must-start in season-long leagues given
his workload, but the high end potential just didn’t there
to trust him in daily formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It was a hugely disappointing start to the
season for those who invested in Russell Wilson, but the ones
who held onto him through the mediocrity have been rewarded handsomely
when it has mattered the most. Wilson has been unbelievable as
of late. After failing to get to the 20-point mark in eight of
his first nine games, Wilson has now scored 25 or more points
in five straight games and hasn’t been alone with huge production
in the Seattle offense, either. Veteran wide receiver Doug Baldwin
has been nothing short of ridiculous in recent weeks. Baldwin
has made 34 receptions for 560 yards and an astonishing 11 touchdowns
over just his past six games. This pace is obviously unsustainable
for even the most elite of wide receivers, but Baldwin has done
an incredible job of making the most of his opportunities and
finding the open spot in the defense, particularly in the end
zone.
Riding the hot streak is a must this week for owners of Wilson
and Baldwin who will see their players go up against a St. Louis
defense that has been weak against the pass as of late. The Rams
started the season off incredibly strong, having given up a total
of just five passing touchdowns over their first eight games.
Since then, though, they’ve given up 13 passing touchdowns
over just their past six games. In Week 15, it was Jameis Winston
who threw for 363 yards and a pair of scores against the Rams
defense. With Wilson and Baldwin both playing as well as they
are, they are must-starts. Even Tyler Lockett and Jermaine Kearse
have upside as WR2’s in what is a great matchup at home
against a bad team.
Running Game Thoughts: The Seattle running game has seen injury
after injury this season, leading to what now has to be considered
a full on committee between Christine Michael and Bryce Brown.
Both players were signed during early this past week and while
Fred Jackson still got some snaps, it was Michael and Brown who
took a combined 25 carries for 127 yards against the Browns. Michael
was the lead rusher, taking 16 of those carries for 84 yards while
Brown’s 43 yards on nine carries gave the Seahawks a nice
yards per carry average, but did almost nothing for fantasy owners
who took a chance on him. While Michael has to be considered the
back to own in this backfield, his role is not necessarily established
as the team’s starter after one game. The coaching staff
made it known that they will be riding the “hot hand”
in Week 15 and there’s little reason to believe that would
change after one game.
Michael and Brown could both be in for a nice game this week
as the Seahawks host the Rams. St. Louis has been absolutely decimated
by opposing running games as of late, having conceded an average
of 124 yards per game on the ground over their past seven games.
This past week, it was the Buccaneers and Doug Martin who rushed
for 141 yards on 25 carries. While St. Louis has been able to
avoid giving up many rushing touchdowns, that is more flukey than
it is indicative of them being a stone wall at the goal line,
so there should be at least a few opportunities for Michael and/or
Brown.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It would be hard to imagine a worse fantasy
disappointment than what we got from A.J. Green in Week 15. The
Bengals star receiver caught just one pass, albeit for 37 yards,
in what was assumed to be one of the best possible matchups for
him against a depleted and already terrible San Francisco defense.
With AJ McCarron behind center, Green was targeted just three
times on the day, putting him tied for third on the team in targets
for the week. Certainly that won’t be the case going forward,
but there is a very real chance that McCarron will not be as willing
to sling the ball down the field as Andy Dalton has been in the
past. Marvin Jones did continue what has been a mini hot streak
as he caught four passes for 89 yards, making the third straight
game where he’s reached at least 60 yards and 12 or more
points in PPR formats.
The Bengals might again be without tight end Tyler Eifert this
week as has again missed practice throughout the week due to a
concussion. With the Bengals likely headed to the playoffs anyway,
the team might opt to avoid playing him in a tough matchup against
the league’s best defense on Monday night. The Broncos have
allowed the league’s fewest number of passing yards and
total points to opposing quarterbacks on the year, which would
tend to indicate there should be no one in their right mind who
is willing to take a chance on McCarron. Only Green and perhaps
Jones have any value in this game as long as Eifert is out and
even then it’s a crapshoot. This is an extremely tough road
matchup and with McCarron at quarterback, there might be better
options than both Green and Jones.
Running Game Thoughts: A quick look at Jeremy Hill’s Week
15 fantasy total would lead you to believe that he might be turning
over a new leaf, but don’t be fooled - this has been and
continues to be one of the least consistent and least effective
running games in the league. Hill scored twice, but rushed for
just 31 yards on 19 carries in what was a great matchup against
the 49ers. Hill’s counterpart, Giovani Bernard, wasn’t
much more effective as he could only muster 33 yards on 14 carries
himself. Bernard remains an active part of the Bengals passing
game which has helped keep him in the discussion as a Flex option
in PPR formats, but his overall production has been quite mediocre.
He hasn’t rushed for more than 40 yards in a game since
Week 9 and he hasn’t scored a single touchdown since all
the way back in Week 6.
With both players getting substantial playing time, neither has
been a reliable fantasy option throughout the season and it’s
hard to believe that will change this week as they head to Denver
to face the Broncos and their brutal run defense. While the Broncos
have given up a surprising 14 total touchdowns to opposing running
backs, they’ve been dominant at limiting the position on
the ground. Only one time this season has a team rushed for more
than 100 yards against this defense and that came all the way
back in Week 2 when they played the Chiefs. Over their past five
games, opposing teams have averaged less than 50 yards rushing
against the Broncos, including this past week when they held DeAngelo
Williams and the Steelers backs to just 26 yards on 14 carries.
Hill is a touchdown-or-bust type player at this point while Bernard’s
only value is in PPR formats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Broncos have been one of the better
passing games in the league throughout the past few seasons, but
with injuries and general incompetence from Peyton Manning, those
days seemed to be a thing of the past in 2015. But for at least
one week, we got a glimpse of what the Broncos offense is still
capable of. Brock Osweiler threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns
in a shootout against the Steelers, the first three touchdown
game of his career. Along with Osweiler’s recent passing
success has come a return to elite fantasy status for Demaryius
Thomas. Thomas had been struggling, but has now averaged more
than 19 fantasy points per game in PPR formats over his past three
contests. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Sanders had been a non-factor in
recent weeks before exploded this past week in a 10-catch, 181-yard,
one-touchdown performance.
Now that the Broncos passing game appears to be going in the
right direction, fantasy owners might be excited to get these
players back in their lineups. Be careful, though, as they’re
in for a tough matchup in Week 16. The Broncos themselves are
the best fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks, but the
Bengals are not far behind. With only 16 passing touchdowns against
them and 19 interceptions forced, the Bengals have been terrorizing
opposing quarterbacks this season. In fact, over their past four
games, opposing quarterbacks have scored an average of just 7.0
fantasy points per game against Cincinnati. Obviously it’s
going to be tough to find better receivers than Thomas and Sanders
who are both elite in their own right, but Osweiler should be
back on the bench here in Week 16.
Running Game Thoughts: The monumental flop that has been C.J.
Anderson continued again this past week as the former consensus
first round fantasy draft pick once again had his fantasy owners
crying as he took just four carries for 14 yards. Anderson was
nursing an ankle injury, but he was activated which had to give
fantasy owners some hope in what was a good matchup against the
Steelers. Instead, it was Hillman who dominated the touches out
of the backfield, running the ball 14 times for a measly 48 yards.
Now with Anderson having another week of practice under his belt,
look for the team to split the carries more evenly between these
two backs, making neither player particularly exciting.
The duo of Hillman and Anderson will be running against a Cincinnati
defense that has given up quite a few fantasy points over the
past two weeks. During that span, the Steelers and 49ers running
backs combined for 38 total fantasy points (standard scoring),
mostly due to their four combined touchdowns. Aside from those
touchdowns, though, the Bengals have been dominant against the
run, having held opposing backs to an average of just 56 rushing
yards per game over their past seven contests. During that span,
no team has even rushed for 80 yards against this defense, which
should give fantasy owners plenty of pause here in the championship
weekend.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Way back in September, I’m sure you
all had this game circled on your calendar as the crucial showdown
for the NFC East. No? You didn’t? The Redskins were the
only NFC East team to secure a win last week, which gives them
a decent shot at winning this division at .500 or better. Kirk
Cousins ripped apart a Bills defense that appears to have quit
on Rex Ryan and this season, throwing for a non-facing-the-Saints
season high in yardage (319) and scoring 5 touchdowns (4 passing,
1 rushing). Cousins targeted Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson relentlessly,
with the two combining for 3 touchdowns and over two-thirds of
Cousins’ yardage total. While DJax remains boom or bust,
Reed is the best non-Gronk tight end you can have.
The Eagles just gave up 40 points to the Cardinals and without
a running game as dynamic as Arizona’s, the Redskins will
be doing the bulk of damage through the air. The Eagles are one
of only four teams to have allowed 30 passing touchdowns on the
season, making Jackson an enticing option as your WR3/Flex for
your fantasy championship. The Redskins only have one win on the
road and their offense is far more productive at home, but in
a crucial game that is essentially for the division, look for
the key players in this passing attack to step up.
Running Game Thoughts: So apparently Alfred Morris is back atop
the depth chart. Morris handled 14 carries last week while Matt
Jones had 10. This was in a game where the Redskins never trailed.
Morris was also the most effective he’s been all season,
averaging 6 yards per carry. Jones, on the other hand, averaged
just 2.8 yards per carry. Between the two backs, Jones has received
more carries than Morris in eight of the games both were active
(a total of 13). The Eagles defense just got obliterated by David
Johnson for 229 total yards and three touchdowns last week. However,
Jones and Morris combined aren’t even half as talented as
DJ. If you made it to your fantasy championship, odds are neither
of these two were in your lineup. Keep it that way.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Eagles are very much in contention and
a win against the Redskins is necessary if they want to preserve
their playoff hopes. In fact, a win over the Redskins and they
control their own destiny next week. Unfortunately for the Eagles,
they are terrible. Sam Bradford had a solid stretch of turnover
free football, but now he’s back to being Sam Bradford.
Although he threw for his season high in yardage, 361, Bradford
turned it over three times, including throwing a touchdown to
the wrong team last week. There were two positives in that game.
Zach Ertz posted his second consecutive highly productive game.
He had 5 catches for 98 yards two weeks ago and followed it up
with 8 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown last week. Relying
on two strong weeks and ignoring the other 11 that were disappointing
is normally ill advised, but with the tight end position so weak,
Ertz is a legitimate consideration if you’ve been streaming
tight ends or have Tyler Eifert on your roster. As for the other
positive in this game, my best friend, Jordan Matthews. It is
so frustrating knowing how talented he is that this is really
just the third time he’s performed this well all season.
He has legitimate WR1 talent and I’m once again going to
be all over him next year. With that being said, he’s simply
been too inconsistent to trust at this point, even against a Redskins
pass defense that’s allowed 26 touchdowns on the season
and a 100-yard receiver 3 of the past 4 weeks.
Running Game Thoughts: The three-headed Eagles rushing monster
has only one relevant head – Ryan Mathews. Darren Sproles
is still just a role player and DeMarco Murray is as good as gone.
Mathews only saw 11 carries last week, but was highly effective,
averaging 5.3 yards per carry. He was rendered irrelevant because
the Eagles could not keep the Cardinals out of the end zone, thus
forcing them to abandon the ground game. While the Eagles’
performance was less than encouraging defensively, at home against
a far inferior offense to that of the Cardinals, the Eagles should
not find themselves down big at any point this week. The Redskins
have a bottom five run defense, allowing 4.9 yards per carry and
129.8 yards per game to opposing rushers. If you need an RB2 and
you roster Mathews, he’s worth serious consideration in
a game where he should see upwards of 15 carries.
Passing
Game Thoughts: T.Y. Hilton wants the Colts to take more
shots downfield. He’s not wrong. The problem is that he’s
operating within a universe where his quarterback is still Andrew
Luck. With a very banged up Matt Hasselbeck and possibly Checkdown
Charlie Whitehurst under center, there’s only so much the
offense can do. Hasselbeck is fine in small doses, but now poised
to make his sixth consecutive start, his 40 year-old body simply
cannot hold up. The drop off has been noticeable. After taking
over on a permanent basis week 11, Hasselbeck threw two touchdowns
in his first two starts, completing 71.9 percent and 61.9 percent
of his throws. Since week 13, he has only thrown two touchdowns
total, while committing five turnovers and averaging just 17 completions
per game and completing 56 percent of his passes. Hilton has a
total of 10 catches the past three games. That simply is not enough
for a No.1 receiver.
If anything can get the Colts offense going, it’s the Dolphins
and whatever it is they do when opponents have the ball (because
it’s certainly not defense). The Dolphins have allowed 31
passing touchdowns this season, which would be tops in the league
if not for the historically bad Saints. The Dolphins also bleed
big plays and struggle to rush the passer. They’ve given
up 11 passing touchdowns in their last three games that haven’t
been against Jimmy Clausen. Hopefully for those invested in Hilton,
Hasselbeck is closer to Eli Manning and Philip Rivers than he
is to Clausen.
Running Game Thoughts: I have a general policy every season where
I don’t draft running backs over 30. Frank Gore looks like
a man who has played 11 seasons in the NFL while missing very
few games. He has taken a lot of hits. He has looked slow and
sluggish this season and embodies all the reasons I don’t
like old running backs. Gore is averaging 3.6 yards per carry
on the season and that includes some early games where he wasn’t
completely beaten down. Since week 8, he’s eclipsed his
current season average just once (3.8 ypc week 13) and has only
two touchdowns during that span.
Miami is atrocious against the run, allowing 132.1 yards on the
ground per game and having allowed 10 rushing touchdowns on the
season. They were thoroughly gashed by Downtown Donald Brown last
week. It doesn’t get much worse than that. While Brown is
not very talented, he still severely outperformed Melvin Gordon,
who averaged 2.7 yards on his 15 carries. At this point in his
career, even with all the hits and bruises, I have to believe
Gore is no worse than Brown. The matchup is appealing enough to
hope Gore can turn back the clock one more time, but it’s
hard to ignore the paltry performance of recent weeks.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Tannehill rushed for his first touchdown
of the season last week. Let’s count that in our analysis
of Tannehill’s performances. He now has one or zero touchdowns
scored in six games, including the last three. He appears to be
one of those guys that is better than any replacement, so you
have to keep him around, but not good enough to really win with.
Hopefully he can keep feeding Jarvis Landry, who is having a PPR
season for the ages. Landry will likely finish the season somewhere
around 115 catches. He had 8 last week for just 54 yards. He is
a guy whose value will be forever linked to the scoring system.
A target hog with excellent hands, Landry will once again be the
focal point of the Dolphins passing attack this week. The Colts
are the fourth worst pass defense in terms of yards per game and
have allowed 28 touchdowns through the air this season. I still
cannot bring myself to recommend trusting Tannehill, but Landry
is a guy that’s been there for you all season and should
be there again in the championship.
Running Game Thoughts: Quick! What running back leads the NFL
in yards per touch? Answer – Lamar Miller. So how is it
possible that this guy continues to ride the bench for large portions
of games? Every week he apparently has some minor ailment that
forces him to the sidelines, yet he is always “fine”
afterwards and never appears on the injury report. Two weeks ago
it was his ankle. Last week it was his quad. Miller is likely
going to finish this season with under 180 carries, which is borderline
criminal for a back averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Last week,
he saw just nine carries against one of the worst run defenses
in the league. The week before he dominated the Giants in the
first half before disappearing in the second half. No running
back in the NFL is used less consistently.
The problem lies in what to do in your championship match with
a guy so talented that he can go off for 20+ points, but so risky
in that he could be benched for Jay Ajayi on a team going nowhere
and looking to see what they have for next year (there is almost
no shot Miller resigns in Miami). I think the answer boils down
to what you need. If you need a safety net – a reliable
8-10 points, there are a multitude of waiver options and replacement
level players that should be able to get you there. If you need
to hit a home run or just like to gamble, then roll with Miller
and hope the Dolphins decide to give him the ball this week. The
Colts are really bad against the run, allowing 123.8 rushing yards
per game and 11 touchdowns on the season. The Dolphins are going
to have success on the ground. The question is whether it will
be via Miller or Ajayi?
Passing
Game Thoughts: At some point, perhaps while we were all
admiring his work, it appears Tom Brady stopped being angry. After
eight consecutive weeks with no fewer than 37 pass attempts, Brady
has thrown the ball 35 and 30 times the past two weeks, respectively.
He has still produced QB1 numbers with over 200 yards and 2 touchdowns
in each game. However, that’s not what we look for out of
Tom Brady. We can get those numbers playing matchups and streaming.
It certainly didn’t help that Brady lost Amendola to a re-aggravation
of his knee injury. Brandon LaFell actually led the Patriots in
receiving, although Gronk led the team in targets. Brady will
head to the Meadowlands for a divisional showdown with the Jets
with no one reliable besides Gronk. Julian Edelman is listed as
Doubtful and will not suit up.
The Jets are an elite unit defensively and lead the league in
opponents’ completion percentage at just 55.9. They are
also fifth in the league in interceptions with 17. Despite the
tough matchup, this might actually be a boon for Brady as the
Jets have a good offense as well, thus forcing Brady to have to
throw. Brady lit up the Jets for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns (1
on a Brady sneak) Week 7 against in New England. There is no Patriot
receiver besides Gronk worth a spot in your lineup in the most
important week of them all, but I actually like Brady to return
to form in a perceived tough matchup.
Running Game Thoughts: So Joey Iosefa led the Patriots in carries
because of course he did. I wanted my next sentence to say, “It
is clear…” but then it dawned upon me that nothing
is ever clear with a Bill Belichick backfield. Check that. One
thing is clear – you cannot start any of these running backs
expecting carries. If you want to rest your championship hopes
on the legs of Iosefa or Brandon Bolden, you will be doing it
without my blessing. To further muddy the waters, the Patriots
signed relic Steven Jackson earlier this week. He’s a reliable
veteran presence, but there’s a reason no one wanted him
for 15 weeks. As for James White, he’s just a glorified
receiver. He had just one carry last week, but caught 7 passes
on 8 targets including a touchdown. He now has scored in three
straight and has amassed 21 receptions over that period as well.
In Week 7, the Patriots faced the Jets also without Dion Lewis.
Bolden did not see the field and White and Blount combined for
1 yard on 5 carries. Brady threw the ball 54 times. It worked.
The Jets have the league’s best run defense and it’s
not close. Belichick knows this and has never been one to try
and “establish” that which isn’t there. This
projects to be a game where the Patriots implement a short passing
game in lieu of a ground attack.
Passing
Game Thoughts: This Jets team really is a lot of fun to
watch. It’s a shame they’re not going to make the
playoffs with a likely 10-6 record. Ryan Fitzpatrick looks like
a new quarterback this season compared to the one we’ve
seen previous years and has proven capable of leading this team
to victories. Last week’s dud can be chalked up to the Cowboys
defense. They do this to everyone – control the clock, play
strong pass defense, and lose an ugly one. Eric Decker continued
his streak of 80 yards or a touchdown in every game this season.
Brandon Marshall, however, had one of his worst games of the season
with just 4 catches for 74 yards. The last time he was held under
100 yards without a touchdown – Week 7 against the Patriots
where he went 4-67. The Patriots only allow 230.3 passing yards
per game, but in the fantasy championship, you are starting both
Marshall and Decker confidently.
Running Game Thoughts: This running
game is becoming a nightmare. Chris Ivory led the team in carries
last week with 13, but managed just 37 yards against a Cowboys
defense that had just gotten torched by Fat Eddie Lacy and James
Starks the week before. Most concerning is that Ivory barely saw
the field in a defensive game where ball control was key. Ivory
would be on the field for a series and then it would be the Bilal
Powell show for a while. When Powell was tired, the Jets went
to Stevan Ridley before going back to Powell. Ivory is still the
goal line back and the best bet for a touchdown, but at this point,
he’s nothing more than a glorified Jeremy Hill, and even
that is pushing it as Hill is on the field way more than Ivory.
Powell has now scored in three straight and has reception totals
of 7, 5, and 8 over those three games. Powell wasn’t active
for the Week 7 tilt against the Patriots and although Ivory scored
on a reception, he touched the ball 19 times (17 carries) for
a total of 53 yards. The Patriots have one of the league’s
better run defenses, allowing just 95.8 rushing yards per game.
In a game that should require the Jets to have to score with the
Patriots, I don’t know how you can pin your championship
hopes on Chris Ivory.
Passing
Game Thoughts: When your team is in the midst of a lost
season, there are rarely moments that bring a smile to your face.
Seeing Kellen Moore, my favorite college player of all time, finally
get a chance to start a game for my favorite team is one of those
moments. Moore is the winningest college QB in history and it’s
not close. He posted a 50-3 record as the starter for Boise State
from 08-11. He has an incredibly high football IQ, but went undrafted
due to concerns about his size and arm strength. Despite the scouting,
he has hung around the league for five years and now will get
a two game audition for the role of Tony Romo’s backup in
2016. I want nothing more than for Moore to light it up and prove
all the doubters wrong. I will not hold against him his three
interceptions against one of the league’s best defenses
last week. Let’s focus on the positives. He didn’t
look rattled in the pocket and he did something Matt Cassel absolutely
refused to do – receive the snap and look at Dez Bryant.
With Cassel back there, Bryant is a must bench, but with Moore
back there, you can at least consider Bryant as a WR3 with upside.
Expect Bryant to lead the Cowboys in targets and sink or swim
based upon how well Moore actually performs in a full game. Working
favorably is a crumbling Bills defense that is without Stephon
Gilmore and has completely quit on Rex Ryan. They just allowed
Kirk Cousins to throw for four touchdowns on them and rush for
one more. They’ve allowed 28 passing touchdowns on the season.
Moore will have every opportunity to succeed, but although I’m
rooting for him, I can’t say I’m optimistic that the
scouting reports aren’t true.
Running Game Thoughts: The Jets have the best run defense in
the league and Darren McFadden ran all over them for 100 yards
on 16 carries. He’s still healthy and he’s still a
rock solid RB2. DMC isn’t seeing the volume he was earlier
in the season, but he has posted back to back 100-yard games and
the Bills defense is failing on all fronts. Last week, Alfred
Morris averaged 6 yards per carry against them. Robert Turbin
saw just three carries last week. The Bills allow 106.2 rushing
yards per game and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season.
The Cowboys still have the best offensive line in the league so
McFadden should be a reliable option this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tyrod Taylor had another strong performance
last week, throwing for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns while rushing
for 79 yards on 9 carries. He now has multiple touchdowns in three
of his last four. Part of his spike in production is due to Sammy
Watkins’ emergence into a WR1. Watkins has topped 100 yards
receiving in three of his last four and has six touchdowns over
that span, including one in every game. We’d still like
to see more volume for Watkins, but it’s hard to complain
about what he’s been doing. The problem this week is the
Cowboys just don’t give up passing production. They allow
just 226.6 passing yards per game and have only allowed 15 passing
touchdowns this season, which is second best in the league behind
Seattle. Last week, the Cowboys ended Brandon Marshall’s
streak of 100-yard or touchdown games. Taylor’s legs keep
his floor high, but this could be a ground oriented, grind it
out affair, that limits the upside of all offensive players. Watkins
is more WR2 in this one.
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy had been putting together
an impressive season. Unfortunately, it ended last week as he
tore his MCL. That leaves Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee to
share backfield duties this week. Williams has been extremely
impressive filling in for McCoy this season, averaging 6 yards
per carry. Although he was pulled from last week’s game,
that was more due to the score than anything else. He was a little
banged up, but should be good to go this week and should also
handle the majority of the carries, with Gillislee rotating in
occasionally. The Cowboys shut down Chris Ivory last week, but
overall have struggled with opposing rushers, having given up
14 rushing scores on the season and allowing 110.9 rushing yards
per game. Williams is a great RB2 option this week for the RB
needy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Texans were without Brian Hoyer last
week due to a concussion, so T.J. Yates got the start and promptly
tore his ACL, which meant Brandon Weeden was forced to play. He
actually performed solidly, throwing a touchdown pass, but Hoyer
could be back this week for those fantasy owners (presumably in
leagues that use two QBs) that need him. The most relevant player
on the Texans’ roster continues to be DeAndre Hopkins, who
had another 90-plus-yard game last week against the Colts, and
should be in store for more of the same this week against the
Titans. Cecil Shorts (groin) is expected to be inactive meaning
rookie Jaelen Strong should see increased opportunities but isn’t
more than a WR4.
Tennessee is ninth in the league in pass defense, but just two
more teams have given up more passing scores, they haven’t
recorded an interception since Week 11, and in their past three
games have allowed 10 touchdown throws. The Titans have surrendered
the eighth-most fantasy points to both quarterbacks and tight
ends, and the 12th-most fantasy points to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: It is a near-impossible
task to tell from week-to-week which Texans runner will be getting
the majority of the carries, but last week it was Alfred Blue
against the Colts, and he responded with over 100 rushing yards,
though without a touchdown. Fantasy owners shouldn’t be
gambling that Blue will continue that type of success this week
against Tennessee. The Titans are 17th in the league in both rushing
yards allowed and rushing scores permitted, but have given up
the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota will not play this week due
to a knee injury, which means Zach Mettenberger is under center,
which means big numbers will be hard to come by for any Titan
involved in the passing game. WR Dorial Green-Beckham has two
100-yard games in his last three and is workth a look if Kendall
Wright (ribs) remains sidelined. Delanie Walker is always a fantasy
option, but it could be tough for him this week against a Houston
team that has done well versus opposing tight ends.
The Texans own the NFL’s second-ranked pass defense and
haven’t given up at least 230 passing yards since Week 7.
They are 15th in the league in touchdown throws permitted, and
have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to wideouts and
10th-fewest to tight ends, but are only slightly better than league
average in terms of points allowed to quarterbacks.
Running Game Thoughts: Antonio Andrews
continues to get the bulk of the carries for the Titans, and continues
to do very little with those totes. He picked up 45 yards on 14
carries last week against the Patriots, and has just a single
touchdown over his last 10 games. Andrews simply has little to
offer fantasy owners, even against a Texans outfit that doesn’t
possess an especially menacing run defense. Houston is the definition
of average against the run, ranking 16th in yards allowed, 17th
in rushing scores given up, and 17th in fantasy points surrendered
to opposing running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles continues to head up one of
the most fantasy-friendly lineups in the sport, though they failed
to put up big numbers last week against the Falcons. Bortles threw
for nearly 300 yards, but with only one touchdown, to receiver
Allen Robinson. That should all be forgotten this week, however,
as Bortles, Robinson, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas should all
be firmly implanted in fantasy lineups with the best matchup they
may ever have against a historically inept Saints defense.
New Orleans has had one of the worse pass defenses in league history
this season, and the next touchdown throw they allow will tie
the NFL record for most scoring passes given up in one season.
As one might expect, no team has surrendered more fantasy points
to quarterbacks, and the Saints have also allowed the most points
to tight ends, but just the 13th-most to wide receivers.
Running Game Thoughts: T.J. Yeldon
(knee) was out last week, and Denard Robinson (foot) took his
place and meekly ran for 28 yards against the Falcons but did
help PPR league owners with 8 receptions for 46 yards. Yeldon
may be back this week, and if he is, should be a solid RB2 with
a tasty match-up versus New Orleans. The Saints are just as bad
against the run as they are the pass. They are 26th in rushing
scores allowed, and no team in the league has given up more rushing
scores or fantasy points to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Drew Brees had a fantastic game last week
against the Lions, throwing for 341 yards and a trio of touchdowns,
but he also suffered a foot injury in the contest and his status
for the rest of this season is still up in the air. No matter
who is under center, Brandin Cooks is a must-start. He had 10
receptions for over 120 yards and a score last week, and needs
just seven more yards to reach 1,000 for the season. Both he and
TE Ben Watson are very good plays against Jacksonville.
The Jaguars are 25th in the league in pass defense, but have ceded
just a single scoring pass in their last two games and are now
19th in touchdown throws allowed this year. They have permitted
the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the sixth-most
to tight ends, but are in the middle of the league in terms of
points given up to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: Tim Hightower
once again received the bulk of the carries for the Saints last
week against the Lions, and managed 54 yards on 13 carries. He
didn’t score in the contest and has limited use for fantasy
owners – think flex option – this week against the
Jaguars. Jacksonville ranks 12th in the league against the run,
but 26th in rushing scores allowed and are right in the middle
of the league – 15th – in fantasy points allowed to
running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler has been less than dynamic recently,
but rebounded somewhat against the Vikings with 231 yards and
a pair of touchdowns with one interception. One of his scores
went to Alshon Jeffery, but unfortunately for Jeffery’s
fantasy owners, that was the only reception of the day for the
wideout. Jeffery’s numerous injuries are a concern and he
remains questionable after missing practice time with a hamstring
ailment this week. If he sees the field, he should be a much better
play this week against the Buccaneers, who have not had great
success shutting down opposing receivers this year.
Tampa Bay is 19th in the league in pass defense and 22nd in touchdown
throws allowed. They are right in the middle of the NFL in terms
of fantasy points given up to quarterbacks and have allowed the
ninth-most points to wideouts, but the 12th-fewest to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte’s
production has been dropping as the season has gone on, at least
in terms of rushing yards. He’s run for less than 50 yards
in four of his last five games, but has overcome that shortcoming
by scoring in each of his last three games. Forte will continue
to share snaps with Jeremy Langford, limiting Forte’s upside,
and he has a difficult match-up this week with Tampa Bay, leaving
him as a flex option at best. The Buccaneers are ninth in the
NFL in run defense and have permitted the eighth-fewest rushing
scores and eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston threw for 361 yards and a
pair of touchdowns last Thursday against the Rams, but much of
that came with the Bucs down big. He’s had an impressive
rookie season, getting noticeably better as it has gone on, and
his fantasy upside in the future is huge. The same can be said
about Mike Evans, though he’s useful now, and should only
get better as his chemistry with Winston grows. Evans had 157
yards against St. Louis, and is a decent bet to be effective this
week, even against a Chicago defense that hasn’t allowed
a ton of passing yards.
The Bears are third in the NFL against the pass, but 20th in touchdown
throws permitted. They have surrendered the 12th-most fantasy
points to opposing quarterbacks, but have given up the 12th-fewest
points to wideouts and the sixth-fewest to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Doug Martin
ran for 91 yards last week against the Rams, but much of that
came in the first quarter as he was held down the rest of the
way. Martin has been one of the most pleasant surprises this year
for fantasy owners, ranking among the top backs for most of the
season. He gives way to Charles Simms in the passing game which
limits his upside when the Bucs are in catch-up mode, but he’s
a legit RB1 this week against the Bears. Chicago ranks 26th in
the NFL against the run, and have given up the eighth-fewest rushing
scores but the 12th-most fantasy points to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: What else is there to say about Cam Newton?
He is having an MVP season, and has rewarded fantasy owners every
step of the way. He threw five more touchdowns last week, a feat
all the more impressive considering his receiving corps. Ted Ginn
snared two more scores, and tight end Greg Olsen continues to
be among the most fantasy-friendly options in the league at that
position. Newton and Co. have a statistically difficult match-up
with Atlanta this week, but Newton and Olsen are must-starts under
any circumstance.
The Falcons have given up enough yards to rank 20th in the league
against the pass, but have held the opposition out of the end
zone, having allowed the fifth-fewest scoring throws. They have
given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to signal-callers and
the second-fewest to wideouts, but the fifth-most to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan
Stewart will likely miss this week’s contest, leaving the
rushing duties in the hands of Newton and Cameron Artis-Payne.
Newton ran for 100 yards last week against the Giants, and is
one of the game’s most effective runners regardless of position.
Artis-Payne chipped in with 59 yards, and is a decent flex option
against a pliable Falcons run defense. Atlanta is 14th in the
NFL in run defense, but is tied for most rushing scores allowed
and have surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points in the league
to opposing running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan’s disappointing season continued
last week, as he failed to throw for 250 yards and had just a
single touchdown with one interception. Fortunately for fantasy
owners, that touchdown went to Julio Jones, who has been getting
loads of receptions and yards, but not nearly enough scores. Nonetheless,
he’s a must-start who is more than capable of blowing up
any defense, even one that has been as good as the Panthers’
this season. In his last matchup with Josh Norman (Week 14), Julio
posted a 7-88-0 line on ten targets and finished as a low-end
WR2.
Carolina has the league’s fifth-ranked pass defense, and
they are 10th in touchdown throws allowed. They have allowed the
seventh-fewest fantasy points to both quarterbacks and wideouts,
but are right in the middle of the league in terms of points allowed
to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: After a lull
that saw him fail to get into the end zone, Devonta Freeman reached
the end zone last week, a good thing for his fantasy owners since
he added only 56 rushing yards on 26 carries. Freeman does continue
to excel as a pass-catcher, and has to start for fantasy owners
despite a tough match-up with Carolina. Freeman, and the entire
offense, was held in check as they got blanked by the Panthers
in Week 14, 38-0. Expect a better showing here. The Panthers are
sixth in the NFL in run defense, 13th in rushing scores permitted,
and have allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points to opposing running
backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger has struggled against
the Bengals in two recent games against them, but otherwise he
has been on fire since returning from a knee injury earlier in
the season. Ben excelled even last week against the league’s
top pass defense throwing for 380 yards and 3 touchdowns and with
2 interceptions in a must win game against the Broncos. Big Ben
is averaging 336.9 passing yards per game and has thrown 18 touchdowns
in less than ten full games. Antonio Brown passed 1,500 receiving
yards for the second straight year, despite some poor quarterback
play when Mike Vick and Landry Jones were under center, and continues
to be the toughest cover in the league. Even top corners like
Aquib Talib have struggled to contain him. With Markus Wheaton
finally contributing, the Steelers are stacked with skill position
players with the dynamic Martavis Bryant and steady veteran Heath
Miller making plays for their star quarterback on a weekly basis.
With Aaron Rodgers and the Packers struggling this season and
with Andrew Luck injured, this has clearly been the best passing
attack in the league.
Ben should keep his huge season going this week facing a Baltimore
pass defense that has been terrible this season and even more
so once the season was clearly lost. On the season, the Ravens
are allowing 242.3 passing yards per game and have allowed 28
passing touchdowns with only 4 interceptions. Pittsburgh’s
pass defense has been even worse so even with a decimated passing
attack, Baltimore could force the Steelers to continue the need
to pile up the passing yards. But even if Baltimore fails to keep
up, there will be big numbers put up by the black and gold on
Sunday. Running Game Thoughts: DeAngelo
Williams struggled against the tough Broncos run defense last
week, but he at least found the endzone to salvage a decent fantasy
day for his owners. Otherwise, the veteran has continued to defy
Father Time. Williams looks as quick and agile as he has at any
time during his career and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and
has 799 yards and 9 scores on the ground. He’s also contributed
in the passing game and is one reception shy of matching his career
high of 33 receptions despite not being a full time player all
season. The Steelers need him to squeeze out two more games of
his 32-year-old legs as two wins assure them of a wildcard spot.
The Ravens run defense is still one of the best in the league
but the Ravens lack of offensive time of possession is starting
to take its toll on the unit. The Ravens are allowing only 100.4
rushing yards per game with 7 rushing scores on the season but
those numbers have been creeping up in recent weeks. In a game
that the Steelers should control expect a heavy dose of Williams.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With injuries to Joe Flacco and Matt Schaub
the Ravens starting quarterback job has been left to Jimmy Clausen.
Clausen hasn’t embarrassed himself and has developed into
a solid backup level NFL quarterback, but he’s not a guy
that you want starting on your fantasy team. Clausen threw for
281 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions last week, which
included a beautifully thrown Hail Mary touchdown pass to Kamar
Aiken to end the first half. With most leagues in the final stages
of their playoffs, it’s unlikely that you would be looking
at this passing attack when choosing a line-up, but Kamar Aiken
is one player that could receive some consideration as the only
true target in this offense in a favorable matchup. It’s
possible the team auditions newly signed Ryan Mallet over the
last two weeks, but neither quarterback is a starting option anyway
in a fantasy championship game.
The young Steelers’ secondary has been lit up in recent
weeks to the extent that only the New York Giants are giving up
more passing yards per game than the Steelers. Pittsburgh is allowing
279.1 yards per game and has yielded 28 passing touchdowns to
their opposition. The Ravens passing attack is far from potent,
but against a sieve of a defense in a game where they will likely
need to play catch up, this could be a productive day.
Running Game Thoughts: Buck Allen was looking very good in his
unexpected audition for 2016, but an early game fumble sent him
to the bench last week. Head Coach John Harbaugh came out this
week to say that the “punishment” for the fumble would
not continue and Allen should get his job back. The rookie fumbled
in each of the last two games but had 131 carries to open the
season without putting the ball on the ground. So hopefully this
is not an issue going forward. This will be a tough matchup, and
with the possibility that Allen does fumble again and being sent
back to the bench, it is tough to trust putting Allen in your
line-up with a championship on the line.
Pittsburgh has been very strong against the run limiting the opposition
to 89.4 yards per game this season with only 5 rushing touchdowns
allowed. The Ravens will likely need to put the ball up in the
air to keep up with the Steelers so perhaps Allen is more useful
in PPR leagues, but comes with a sizeable amount of risk.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Giants will be without their best offensive
player this week as Odell Beckham Jr. was suspended after his
MMA match with cornerback Josh Norman. Beckham appealed the decision,
and it was upheld. Losing Beckham should be devastating to an
offense otherwise devoid of playmakers. Rueben Randle hasn’t
shown much progress over the years and slot wide receiver Dwayne
Harris is a solid but unspectacular pass catcher. The biggest
surprise in this offense has been the unheralded backup tight
end Will Tye out of Stony Brook University. The “short”
but thick Tye has caught 34 balls for 369 yards and 2 touchdowns
with most of that production coming after starting tight end Larry
Donnell was lost with a neck injury. Tye has been a safety valve
for quarterback Eli Manning. Manning is in the midst of another
solid statistical season with 3,900 passing yards with 32 touchdowns
and 11 interceptions. The younger Manning probably doesn’t
get the credit he deserves for his consistent solid to spectacular
play over the years. The fact he has cut down his turnovers this
season has been a major plus.
The Vikings’ pass defense is a top 10 unit allowing 229.7
yards per game and 21 touchdown passes allowed and has fared even
better at home. The team has received adequate play from corner
backs Xavier Rhodes and Terence Newman and should be able to slow
Randle and retread Hakeem Nicks.
Running Game Thoughts: The Giants running game which has been
a four-headed monster hasn’t really gotten on track this
season, which is out of character for a franchise traditionally
identified by a strong defense and running game. Rashad Jennings
is the “leader” of the committee and although he has
been running a little better in recent weeks, wasn’t good
enough this season to take the job and prosper. Shane Vereen was
expected to be big part of both the running game and passing attack
but has been a major disappointment. Andre Williams lacks the
vision and lateral agility to be able to utilize an above average
size and speed combination and is likely to be out of the league
soon. Orleans Darkwa made some noise when he first broke into
the rotation but his shine has quickly faded as well. All of this
should tell you this is a major situation to avoid.
The Vikings are allowing 112.9 rushing yards per game on the season
with 7 scores on the ground making this matchup even less attractive.
The Giants could look to rely on the running game more if Beckham
is out of the line-up but the four-way split and lack of serious
talent doesn’t inspire fantasy confidence.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With Adrian Peterson forced out of the game
last week with an ankle injury the team relied on Teddy Bridgewater
and he had the best game of his career with 231 yards passing
a 4 passing touchdowns and a rushing score. Before this game,
Teddy had not progressed in his second season, largely because
the team has not tailored the offense to his skill-set and it’s
run heavy scheme. Rookie Stefon Diggs who was fading over the
last four to five weeks after a quick burst onto the scene, caught
two touchdown passes, looking again like a potential star to grow
with Bridgewater. It helped Bridgewater that Peterson’s
exit opened the door for more playing time for second year running
back Jerick McKinnon who has excelled in the passing game and
caught a dump off pass and took it to the endzone. Peterson is
expected back this week and head coach Mike Zimmer has stated
that the offense will not convert into a passing attack despite
Bridgewater’s recent success so those looking to chase Bridgewater’s
points should reconsider, despite a very favorable matchup.
The Giants have the worst pass defense in the league and have
allowed teams to throw all over them to the tune of 308.4 passing
yards per game with 28 passing touchdowns on the season. The lack
of pass rush and talent in the secondary has been a bad combination
for the team. It is a possibility that Bridgewater can put up
another solid effort against this unit, but if his defense keeps
the Giants contained, he likely will not need to.
Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson left last week’s
game with an ankle sprain but is expected to be back this week.
Peterson has been a major part of the offensive game plan and
the team is expected to return to its ground attack once he’s
back. Peterson is still one of the very best runners in the league
and his 1,520 total yards with 9 touchdowns is among the best.
The Giants’ run defense is allowing 114.6 yards per game
on the ground with 10 rushing touchdowns on the season which presents
an average matchup for Peterson. In what should be a close game,
Peterson should be a major part of the game plan.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blaine Gabbert threw three interceptions
last week and perhaps the luster on him is fading after his shockingly
good play when he first replaced Colin Kaepernick. He did throw
for 295 yards and a touchdown last week, and to be fair even Ben
Roethlisbeger has struggled against the Bengals defense in recent
weeks. In six games, Gabbert is completing 62% of his passes for
1,452 yards with 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He’s
achieved this success with a less than stellar supporting cast,
something that must be addressed in the offseason. Anquan Boldin
is still his dependable self, but at 35 years of age it’s
only natural that his game has slowed down a bit. After Boldin,
it’s the underachieving Torrey Smith and backup level tight
ends supporting Gabbert. Vance McDonald who caught 10 balls for
136 yards and 2 touchdowns before getting injured should be back
up to speed this week and could see the bulk of Gabbert’s
targets, although he took a backseat to Blake Bell in Week 15.
The Lions’ pass defense had struggled in the early part
of the season but has played much better over the second half
of the season. The recent surge has moved the Lions up to the
12th spot in the rankings. The team is now allowing 239.6 passing
yards per game and 23 touchdowns on the season to opposing quarterbacks.
Darius Slay has been one of the best cornerbacks in the league
over that span, but really has no one on the other side that requires
serious attention. It’s likely he’s matched up on
Boldin as he’s still the 49ers best receiver which may open
opportunities up for Torrey Smith.
Running Game Thoughts: Career journeyman Shaun Draughn, like Gabbert,
was also surprisingly making himself fantasy relevant in his new
home, but unfortunately he left last week’s game with a
knee injury and is not expected back this week. That leaves some
combination of Kendall Gaskins and the newly signed DuJuan Harris
in the 49ers backfield this week. No thanks.
If you’re truly desperate I guess a dice roll on Gaskins
who did manage to gain 52 yards on 6 receptions after Draughn
left last week’s game. It helps that the Lions’ run
defense has been very poor during the course of the 2015. The
team is allowing 112.6 yards per game on the ground and has yielded
a league worst 18 rushing touchdowns.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford has performed much better
since the team made a switch at the offensive coordinator position.
Last week against a porous Saints’ secondary, Stafford completed
an amazing 88% of his passes for 254 yards and 3 touchdowns. It’s
been Golden Tate and not Calvin Johnson benefitting from Stafford’s
resurgence with the former Golden Domer catching 2 touchdown passes
last week. Johnson has been most invisible most weeks as teams
have doubled up on him and the team has been content to not challenge
those double teams and instead look elsewhere. With Tate and tight
end Eric Ebron both being dynamic playmakers as well, it’s
not a terrible strategy but it’s a frustrating one for Johnson
owners.
The Lions passing attack should continue its roll, as the 49ers
pass defense hasn’t been very good allowing 267.1 passing
yards per game and 19 scores through the air. With the talent
at the skill positions for the Lions the overmatched San Fran
secondary could be in for a long day on the road.
Running Game Thoughts: The Lions have been the worst rushing offense
in the league this season, but have shown some signs of life in
recent weeks. Ameer Abdullah, in particular, is finally finding
some running room and gained a career high 77 yards and scored
a touchdown last Monday night. He looked quick, decisive and deceptively
strong; all the things he was expected to be after much preseason
hype. He may have turned a corner now, but it’s still hard
to recommend starting a guy that has struggled for most of the
season and did fumble last week, something that landed him in
the doghouse earlier this season.
It should help, however, that the 49ers are a far below average
run defense, allowing 128.6 yards per game a league high 18 rushing
touchdowns on the season. Ideally the Lions will be looking to
exploit their advantage and run the ball which will only help
the passing game open up even more.
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