Passing
Game Thoughts: Bill O’Brien made two horrendous coaching
decisions last week. 1 – He did not bench Brian Hoyer at
halftime. There are only a handful of quarterbacks that can turn
the ball over four times in a half and not get benched and Brian
Hoyer is not one of them. 2 – He irrationally left Nate
Washington on the field ahead of Jaelen Strong. There is no debate
that Strong is more talented than Washington ever was. The only
issue is that Strong is a rookie and perhaps unreliable. I don’t
know how many passes Washington had to drop to be taken off the
field because apparently three wasn’t enough. It’s
impossible to know if the Chiefs would be playing this week had
O’Brien not failed in his duties. What we do know is that
the Chiefs absolutely dominated last week. In typical Chiefs fashion,
Alex Smith was asked to do nothing more than not lose the game.
He threw just 22 times, completing 17 throws for 190 yards with
a touchdown and a pick. Somehow, after being irrelevant for much
of the season, Travis Kelce accounted for 128 of Smith’s
yardage and will again be the focal point of the passing attack
with Jeremy Maclin doubtful to play with a high ankle sprain.
Given that this is a playoff game, it would not shock me to see
Maclin active, but I cannot imagine him doing anything productive
so soon after getting hurt. Against the Patriots, Smith will almost
certainly have to throw more than 22 times. The Chiefs have played
excellent defense over the second half of the season, but should
still find themselves having to score a few points to keep up
with Tom Brady. One of Chris Conley or Albert Wilson will benefit
from Maclin’s absence and have solid value this week, but
your guess is as good as mine as to which one. The Patriots allowed
240.7 passing yards per game and 24 touchdowns against 12 interceptions
in the regular season. There are pieces of this Chiefs offense
to like, but Alex Smith is still not one of them.
Running Game Thoughts: Charcandrick West being listed atop the
depth chart at running back is akin to Thabo Sefalosha being listed
as a starter ahead of James Harden back when he was on the Thunder.
Technically, he’s the starter, but Spencer Ware is so clearly
more talented that West quickly becomes an afterthought. Andy
Reid did make a couple puzzling personnel decisions in taking
out Ware (229 pounds) for West (210 pounds) in a few short yardage
and goal line situations. It did not make sense and it backfired
on Reid. Fortunately for the Chiefs, the Texans were deploying
someone masquerading as a professional quarterback under center,
so it didn’t matter. Ware doubled up West in carries last
week and was substantially more effective, averaging almost a
full yard per carry better. Ware was the back to find the end
zone as well in a situation where Reid aptly left him on the field
at the 5-yard line. With the Patriots offense certain to perform
way better than the Texans, the Chiefs should be running a few
more offensive plays. Barring the game getting out of hand, Ware
could be looking at another 15-20 touches and is one of the better
daily plays at the position this week. That is, of course, if
he doesn’t miss Saturday’s contest with this mysterious
ankle injury. Ware hasn’t practiced as of Wednesday and
needs to be monitored closely as kickoff approaches.
The Patriots only allowed 98.8 rushing yards against over the
regular season, but that number is skewed by multiple games where
they possessed large leads, forcing the opposing team to become
one dimensional. The Chiefs are built around a strong running
game and that’s exactly the game plan they will implement
this week. Ware, not West, is the guy you want (unless Ware can’t
go, then you definitely want West).
Passing
Game Thoughts: To say Tom Brady stumbled across the finish
line would be a considerable understatement. Over the final four
weeks, Brady’s highest yardage total was 267 and over the
final two games, he threw just one touchdown. He was very un-Brady-like.
Part of the blame, if not most of it, can be fairly attributed
to the systematic destruction of his entire supporting cast. Brady
is dealing with a suspect offensive line, something that has not
been a problem for the Patriots in the past, and has lost Dion
Lewis, LeGarrette Blount, Julian Edelman, and Danny Amendola while
dealing with a somewhat hobbled Gronk. Despite his struggles,
he has not looked like a guy beginning to slow down, but rather
someone constricted by circumstances beyond his control. The slow
finish notwithstanding, Brady still had the best season of his
career other than the legendary Brady-Randy Moss 2007 (almost)
perfect season. Brady finished 2015 with 4,470 passing yards,
39 touchdowns (3 rushing) and 7 interceptions.
Now Brady plays host to the Chiefs for the first time since the
last weekend in September 2014, after which Brady was considered
to be “done” and was dropped in the majority of fantasy
leagues. As it turns out, Brady was not, in fact, done. After
throwing 4 touchdowns over the first four games of 2014, Brady
threw 29 touchdowns over the next 11 games. This year’s
Chiefs are winners of 11 straight and have held opponents to 20
points or fewer in all but one game (22 points to the Bills Week
12) since Week 5. They allowed 231.1 passing yards per game over
the regular season and if you include Brian Hoyer’s disastrous
performance last week, they have intercepted more passes (26)
than touchdown passes allowed (25). However, Brady will be getting
Edelman and Amendola back this week while Gronk has had two weeks
for that knee to get to 100%. Brady has also been able to rest
his own ankle sprain. This is as close to full strength as the
Patriots have been since the early part of the season. Trust Belichick
to have everyone ready to rock.
Running Game Thoughts: For some reason, the Patriots are insistent
upon having Steven Jackson be their power back. I realize that
Brandon Bolden is nothing special, but do the Patriots know what
year it is? SJax has looked awful every time he’s touched
the ball. He is, to put it bluntly, old and slow. The best compliment
I can give him is that he probably won’t fumble. James White
will likely handle the highest percentage of snaps and do almost
all of his damage in the passing game. However, with Edelman and
Amendola back, White’s production could dip as fewer of
the quick hitter passing plays will be designed specifically for
him. Brandon Bolden is shaping up to be the odd man out, merely
splitting carries with Jackson and not being used in the passing
game.
The Chiefs finished the season allowing 98.2 rushing yards per
game and 7 rushing touchdowns. If the Patriots really want to
win this game, they’ll do it through the air. Jackson may
fall into the end zone, but you should look elsewhere to fill
your running back slots this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The fact that his 2015 season was disappointing
for fantasy owners goes to show just how good that Aaron Rodgers
has been throughout his NFL career. Rodgers finished the regular
season with 31 touchdowns and just eight interceptions with 3,821
yards, but finished seventh in fantasy scoring at his position.
The Packers struggled to find consistency in their passing game
throughout the season, particularly late in the season when Rodgers
failed to throw for multiple touchdowns in any of his final three
games. Those struggles looked like they were going to continue
on Wild Card weekend when the Packers punted on their first drive
and then proceeded to get sacked in the end zone for a safety
on their second drive. They started to get things going in the
second quarter, though, and eventually Rodgers was able to throw
a pair of touchdowns – one to Randall Cobb and the other
to Davante Adams. Cobb was disappointing this season but it was
his seventh touchdown of the year. For Adams, it was just his
second score in what was an extremely disappointing fantasy season
and he is now expected to miss Sunday’s game against the
Cardinals. With Adams out, one player to watch who has been getting
more playing time recently has been Jared Abbrederis. Abbrederis’
numbers haven’t been great but he’s been playing far
more than any Packers receiver not named Cobb, Adams or James
Jones.
Given how good Green Bay’s offense can be at times, it
wouldn’t be overly surprising to see Abbrederis put up some
sneaky fantasy numbers, especially considering that the Cardinals
have done such a great job of shutting down opposing teams’
top receivers. The team allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points
per game to opposing receivers. Tyrann Mathieu is out, but the
team is still stacked defensively, particularly with cornerback
Patrick Peterson who has been locking down his man all season
long. Expect Peterson to see a lot of Randall Cobb, but with Cobb
playing in the slot a good bit of the time, there is a chance
that Peterson could be lined up against Jones on quite a few plays.
Given the Packers’ slow offense as of late, it’d be
hard to imagine that this is going to be a high scoring fantasy
game for the passing attack. Keep an eye on the status of tight
end Richard Rodgers (hip) who is questionable to play this weekend.
Running Game Thoughts: The curious case of Eddie Lacy continued
this past week as the Packers back rushed for over five yards
per carry against a solid Redskins run defense. Lacy also scored
a touchdown on the ground, just his second rushing touchdown since
Week 8. Backup James Starks has been stepping up with Lacy struggling,
but neither player has been a particularly strong fantasy asset
this season, especially down the stretch. Starks did get into
the end zone along with Lacy this past week, but with both players
seeing nearly equal touches, it’s tough to assess who, if
anyone, will be productive on a week-to-week basis.
Both players do have the potential to get something going provided
that they are given the opportunity, but a tough matchup against
the Cardinals won’t make it easy. The Cardinals allowed
the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the running pack position (standard
scoring) on the season and they only gave up two 100-yard rushing
games to a team on the season. Where they have been a bit more
vulnerable, though, has been against backs who can do damage in
the passing game. This is why Starks might be a sneaky fantasy
play in the divisional round, particularly if the Packers fall
behind in the game as many believe they might. Starks does tend
to get more playing time in games where the Packers are forced
to pass more often than usual, so there’s a real chance
that Starks out-produces Lacy in this matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Carson Palmer exceeded even the most optimistic
projections this season as he finished fifth at quarterback in
standard scoring formats. Palmer’s 35 touchdowns and 11
interceptions with 4,671 yards were an impressive number by any
standard, but especially for a player who is coming back from
an ACL injury. When you factor in his age (36), his production
was even more impressive. But things looked ugly in Week 17 when
Palmer threw for just 129 yards and one touchdown with an interception
before being pulled in a blowout loss to the Seahawks. The game
was only a factor for playoff positioning and the Cardinals got
a first round bye anyway, but it was certainly a concerning situation
and not exactly a high note to end the regular season on prior
to the playoffs. Michael Floyd had been the team’s most
consistent receiver as of late, but was held to just one catch
on the day while Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown to 55 and 45
yards respectively.
The passing game will be looking to get back on track in the
Divisional round, though, as they go up against a Packers defense
that they had some success against in Week 16. Palmer threw for
265 yards and a pair of touchdowns in that game. Each of the “big
three” of the Cardinals receivers were productive as both
Fitzgerald and Brown scored touchdowns while Floyd caught six
passes for 111 yards. The Packers looked much better against a
weak Vikings passing game in Week 17, but then fell right back
to reality, allowing 329 yards and a score to Kirk Cousins in
their Wild Card game. Interestingly enough, it was tight end Jordan
Reed and running back Chris Thompson who did most of the damage
this past week, but the Packers secondary and their defense as
a whole has not been very good against opposing passing games
as of late. There’s little reason to think that they’re
suddenly going to step up and slow down the high-powered Cardinals
offense, especially after they’ve had an extra week to rest
and prepare. All three top Cardinals receivers make for fine plays
in what could be a high-scoring affair.
Running Game Thoughts: Arizona’s running game has been
productive most of the season, but even the success that Chris
Johnson had earlier in the season can’t compare to what
we have seen since rookie David Johnson took over the starting
role after the veteran went on IR. Johnson showed explosiveness
in minimal opportunities, even making some plays on special teams
early in the season, but he rushed for 90-plus yards in three
straight games from weeks 14 through 16. It wasn’t quite
so easy for him at the end of the regular season, however, as
he was only given 20 carries over his final two games as the Cardinals
looked to preserve their young playmaker for the playoffs. Johnson
should be in line to shoulder the majority of the touches out
of the backfield for the Cardinals, but don’t be surprised
to see Andre Ellington get some playing time as well.
Johnson will be up against one of the two teams that he was given
minimal carries. He ran for 39 yards on nine carries against the
Packers in Week 16, but he also added an additional 88 yards and
had a touchdown on the ground. It’s true that the 88 yards
on three receptions is fluky, but Johnson’s production on
a per carry basis was still very good and there’s a real
chance that the Cardinals once again walk away with a multiple
score victory in this game. If that happens, Johnson should approach
20 touches and there’s a great chance that he could be the
highest scoring player at the position this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Russell Wilson ended the regular season
on an absolute tear, with 24 touchdowns and only one interception
over his final seven games. Half of Wilson’s touchdown throws
during that stretch went to wideout Doug Baldwin, who flew up
the fantasy leaderboards at wideout to end the year in seventh
place despite barely making it over 1,000 receiving yards. With
Jimmy Graham out, Wilson and Baldwin are the beginning and the
end of fantasy options in the Seattle passing game. Neither of
the two were overwhelmingly successful when the ‘Hawks and
Panthers met earlier in the year, with Wilson throwing for 241
yards and one touchdown and Baldwin snaring just three passes
for 23 yards. Nonetheless, each should be considered this week
in a tough match-up with Carolina.
Over the course of the regular season, the Panthers allowed the
ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, the eighth-fewest
points to wide receivers, and the 12th-fewest points to tight
ends. They were one of just two teams in the league with more
interceptions than touchdown throws allowed, and 11 of the 16
quarterbacks they faced failed to throw for more than one score.
Running Game Thoughts: Marshawn
Lynch did not have a great season for his fantasy owners, as injury
scuttled his playing time. There wasn’t a whole lot of Beast
Mode sightings, with Lynch picking up only 417 yards and three
touchdowns all year. He hasn’t played since mid-November,
but it would be somewhat surprising not to see him on the field
this week. Lynch ran for 54 yards and a score against the Panthers
earlier this year, but is a risky play this week against a very
good run defense, though it’s a risk that could potentially
pay off.
Carolina allowed the 13th-fewest fantasy points in the league
to opposing running backs, holding all but two of the backs they
faced to fewer than 100 rushing yards. No back gained more than
107 yards when facing the Panthers and just four picked up more
than 70 yards on the ground.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There may be some debate about who the NFL
MVP is, but there should be little debate about who the fantasy
football MVP is: Cam Newton. He was responsible for 45 total touchdowns
and more than 4,400 combined rushing and receiving yards, and
led all players in fantasy points by a wide margin. The most impressive
thing may be that Newton did this without a spectacular cast of
pass-catchers around him, as there are no real fantasy options
among the team’s wideouts. The most reliable player for
Newton to throw to was tight end Greg Olsen, who ended the year
fourth in fantasy scoring at his positon with over 1,100 receiving
yards and seven touchdowns. Olsen scorched the Seahawks for 131
yards and a touchdown when the two teams met earlier this year,
and along with Newton should be in fantasy lineups this week against
the Seahawks.
Seattle permitted the second-fewest fantasy points in the league
to opposing quarterbacks and the third-fewest points to wide receivers,
but did surrender the 10th-most points to tight ends. Over their
last six games, including last week’s playoff tilt against
the Vikings, the Seahawks held all but one of the quarterbacks
they faced to fewer than 165 passing yards.
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan
Stewart has been out since mid-December, but the running back
should be on the field this week against the Seahawks. He was
a very good RB2 this year, ranking 16th among backs in fantasy
points despite the missed time, consistently putting up solid
– if mostly unspectacular – point totals. Stewart
ran for 78 yards and two touchdowns earlier in the year against
Seattle, but after a lot of time off and up against a potent run
defense, he should be used with caution by fantasy owners.
No team in the NFL gave up fewer fantasy points to running backs
than the Seahawks. They allowed the second-fewest rushing yards
to backs and the third-fewest touchdowns, and were the only team
in the league that didn’t allow a touchdown reception to
a back. Not a single running back managed to compile 100 rushing
yards in a game against Seattle, and just two were able to scamper
for more than 80 yards.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Steelers offense came out of last week’s
wildcard game banged up, in large part due to Bengals linebacker
Vontaze Burfict’s actions. Ben Roethlisberger suffered a
sprained AC joint and some torn ligaments in his right shoulder
after being slammed to the ground and later kneed in that shoulder
by Burfict. He was forced to leave last week’s game for
most of the fourth quarter before returning late. Big Ben is expected
to play this week but could be limited, as he noticeably had trouble
throwing deeper routes after returning last week. In Week 15 when
these two teams met, Ben threw the ball 55 times for 380 yards
with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. It’s hard to imagine
him doing that again with an injury to his throwing shoulder but
the quarterback has a reputation for playing well through injury.
What will make it even more difficult is that it’s “not
looking good” for star wide receiver Antonio Brown to play
in this game. Brown was also a victim of Burfict, as he suffered
a concussion on a late hit on a ball was clearly over-thrown.
Brown surpassed 1,500 receiving yards for the second consecutive
season and without him in the lineup it will be hard for the rest
of the Steelers’ pass catchers to find openings against
the top-ranked pass defense in Denver. Roethlisberger challenged
second year big play receiver Martavis Bryant to step up his game
following the regular season finally, stating Bryant needed to
“toughen up”. Bryant responded by making one of the
most acrobatic catches in NFL history. He bobbled the ball initially
in the corner of the endzone, but showed great concentration as
he cradled the ball against the back of his thigh before somersaulting
in order to keep possession of it for the score. The tall receiver
will need to be the focal point of the passing game while the
underachieving Markus Wheaton will need to step up and into Brown’s
role. Veteran security blanket Heath Miller will also see an increase
in targets in Browns’ absence. With Ben not likely being
able to get proper velocity on his throws and without one of the
best wide receivers in the game available to him, the writing
is on the wall for the passing game to struggle, but it’s
not usually a safe bet to gamble against Roethlisberger in big
spots.
The Broncos finished the regular season with the top ranked pass
defense in the NFL. The team incredibly allowed less than 200
passing yards per game for the season and yielded only 19 touchdowns.
Chris Harris and Aqib Talib shut down opposing wide-outs most
weeks, but it was the devastating pass rush led by Von Miller
and DeMarcus Ware, which led the league with 52 sacks, that made
life difficult for opposing quarterbacks. Ben will need to get
the ball out quickly in the face of pressure which will put make
it imperative for the Steelers receivers to get open fast.
Running Game Thoughts: Veteran DeAngelo Williams, who played extremely
well during Le’Veon Bell’s absence, missed last week’s
game with a high ankle sprain and is expected to miss the divisional
playoff round as well based on the latest reports. It’s
been said that he’s “facing an uphill battle”
putting the onus on a committee of Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan
Todman to carry the load. Toussaint performed reasonably well
against the Bengals last week. He finished with 58 yards on 17
carries and also caught 4 balls for 60 yards. Toussaint showed
some nice patience and ran hard through the holes in a workmanlike
effort against a tough run defense. He may need to show even more
this week as injuries may not allow Roethlisberger and the passing
game to carry the team.
The Broncos are also very strong against the run. The team limited
the opposition to 83.6 yards per game this season with only 10
rushing touchdowns allowed. If the Steelers get too one dimensional
allowing the Broncos to pin their ears back and go after Ben,
it could spell trouble for the Steelers given Ben’s recent
penchant for turnovers. We also can’t rule out Ben not being
able to finish this game if he gets hit too often and the pain
becomes unbearable. The Steelers will need to establish a running
game with the hope of keeping this game close.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Peyton Manning was struggling mightily before
missing six games from Week 11 through Week 16 due to a plantar
fascia injury. That, coupled with Brock Osweiler going 4-2 as
the interim starter, made it appear likely that the Manning era
in Denver was over. However, Manning replaced a struggling Osweiler
early in the second half in Week 17 against San Diego and led
the Broncos to a come from behind victory, albeit on the back
of only 69 yards passing with no touchdowns thrown. On the season
Manning had 9 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions and appeared
to be at the end of his line, so Gary Kubiak has to be hoping
that the rest did Manning some good and that his playoff experience
will be a plus for the team. Manning clearly doesn’t have
much left in his arm, but his mastery of the offense and his ability
to read opposing defenses allows him to make the correct calls
and audibles which helped jump start the running game in Week
17. The Broncos are loaded with weapons most notably at the two
outside wide receiver positions where Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel
Sanders form one of the top duos in the league. Tight end Vernon
Davis was acquired at the trade deadline to give the team another
weapon but his suspect hands and lack of route running prowess
have made him an afterthought in Denver. The Broncos will need
to protect Manning behind a suspect offensive line by calling
a conservative short passing offense and hoping that the running
game will continue where it left off in Week 17.
If Manning does have anything left, the good news is that he will
be facing off against the league’s 30th ranked pass defense.
During the regular season the Steelers gave up 271.9 passing yards
per game and 29 passing touchdowns as the young secondary was
often over matched. Last week they held AJ McCarron in check until
the 4th quarter, but once he started getting in rhythm he was
able to get his team in position to win the game. Manning likely
has at least one more game left in that 40-year-old arm and should
be able to find his receivers open and let them make plays.
Running Game Thoughts: C.J. Anderson had a disappointing regular
season but seemed to find some life down the stretch and will
be the key to any playoff success that the Broncos have. He had
168 yards and 2 touchdowns on only 24 carries in the last two
weeks and finally started looking like he did when he carried
the team during the second half of the 2014 season. He forms a
two man committee with Ronnie Hillman who ran for 117 yards and
a score in Week 17 giving the Broncos some hope to take advantage
of their home field for the AFC playoffs. The pair seemed resurrected
when Osweiler first took over from Manning and teams finally had
to respect the deep ball, but once teams learned that Brock’s
strong arm didn’t necessarily equate to a strong downfield
passing game, the safeties crept back up and the running game
struggled. In Week 17, Manning’s audibles and leadership
helped re-establish their ground game dominance. Whether that
carries over is the big question and will be indicative of just
how far the team can go.
The Steelers’ run defense was stout this year however, which
could force the Broncos to the air more than they would like,
especially if the Steelers somehow jump out quickly. The Steelers
allowed only 91.2 rushing yards per game, and only six rushing
touchdowns on the season. Don’t be surprised if this game
is more of a defensive battle than one would have expected from
a Manning v. Roethlisberger match-up.
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