Passing
Game Thoughts: It would be difficult to imagine a worse
start for the Seahawks, but quarterback Russell Wilson actually
continues to be a consistent, solid fantasy contributor despite
his team’s struggles. Wilson threw for 241 yards and a touchdown
in a loss to the Panthers in Week 6, but more importantly continued
to remind fantasy owners why he was a top four scorer at the position
a year ago by running for an additional 53 yards. Although Wilson
has not yet rushed for a touchdown, his current rushing total
puts him on pace for 667 rushing yards. This is admittedly lower
than his 2014 total, but still would likely lead the league among
quarterbacks. Tight end Jimmy Graham finally got more involved
in the offense this past week when he caught eight passes for
140 yards - both season highs. Graham has been vocal about his
belief that he has been underutilized in the Seattle offense and
the team might have finally decided to make use of the huge investment
they made this past offseason. Of course, with Graham having such
a big game, the Seattle wide receivers struggled to find targets.
The entire unit was only targeted 12 times in Week 6, making six
receptions on those targets. Ricardo Lockette was the only player
who did anything worth note from a fantasy standpoint as he caught
two passes for 43 yards and a touchdown. Still, Lockette and others
remained buried on the depth chart as Doug Baldwin and Jermaine
Kearse continue to be on the field the most among Seattle wide
receivers on a week-to-week basis.
While Seattle has struggled greatly to throw the ball so far
this season, their Week 7 matchup against the 49ers might be just
the right opportunity to kick the offense back into gear. The
49ers have been terrible against opposing quarterbacks throughout
the season, having conceded at least 15 fantasy points to the
position in each of their past five games. This defense has already
given up a shocking 1,919 yards to opposing quarterback so far
this season - the most of any team - and they have also given
up 11 passing touchdowns already. Surprisingly, though, Wilson
struggled to find much room against the 49ers defense in 2014
as he was held to two of his lower point total games against this
defense. The unit has certainly taken a large step back in terms
of personnel and production so don’t feel too worried about
Wilson’s lack of recent success against this defense - he
should put together another solid top-10 fantasy day.
Running Game Thoughts: Making his return to the lineup after
missing two games with a hamstring injury, Marshawn Lynch scored
his first touchdown of the 2014 season against the Panthers in
Week 6. Lynch rushed for just 54 yards on 17 carries, but didn’t
seem to be limited as he took all but one carry among the Seahawks’
running backs. Lynch should be even healthier by Thursday night,
so those holding onto hope that either Fred Jackson or Thomas
Rawls are going to play a significant role in the offense in coming
weeks can probably stop thinking about that possibility now. When
he’s healthy, he’s “the guy.” There’s
no worry of a carry split here and as such, Lynch becomes a must-start
for fantasy purposes.
The 49ers have historically had a great run defense during the
time that they’ve been going up against Lynch, but that
hasn’t stopped the Pro Bowl tailback from going into “Beast
Mode” in these key divisional matchups. In ten career games
against the 49ers, Lynch has averaged over 100 total yards per
game while scoring eight touchdowns. With the 49ers defense now
substantially less skilled than it has been in recent seasons,
Lynch has a good opportunity to continue the punishment on what
has been a terrible San Francisco run defense so far this season.
The 49ers have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game
to opposing running backs, including monster games to the likes
of Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams. Needless to say, Lynch will
likely be a major part of the offense once again this week and
a 20-touch day seems like a great possibility.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There might not be a more hot-and-cold quarterback
so far this season than Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick has had three
huge games already this year, but has balanced that by having
three awful performances as well. It hasn’t been easy to
predict exactly when the “good” Kaepernick is going
to show up and deliver big fantasy numbers or when he’s
going to completely destroy us. When Kaepernick has been hot,
however, so have been his receivers. In Kaepernick’s three
biggest games, his top receiver, Anquan Boldin, has produced borderline
elite fantasy numbers. Torrey Smith has also had his two biggest
games, including his only two touchdowns, during Kaepernick’s
three most productive games. Unfortunately, none of the other
pass-catchers in this offense can be trusted given their inconsistency.
Despite being the No. 12-scoring quarterback in fantasy at the
moment, Kaepernick himself is also impossible to trust, especially
in a potentially difficult matchup like the one he faces in Week
7 against the Seahawks. Although Seattle ranks 15th in fantasy
points given up to opposing quarterbacks which is a big step down
from where they’ve been over the past few seasons, it’s
worth noting that they’ve still had two excellent games
against quarterbacks. Given Kaepernick’s instability and
history against the Seahawks, it would not be entirely surprising
to see him struggle in this matchup. If you combine his two matchups
against the 49ers from 2014, Kaepernick compiled just 10 total
fantasy points while throwing for a total of 262 yards. This might
be a good week to avoid the 49ers passing game entirely, but if
you’re looking for someone to take a chance on, make it
Boldin. Boldin is dealing with a hamstring injury, but he is coming
off of back-to-back 100-plus yard games and is clearly the top
target in this passing game.
Running Game Thoughts: A struggling offense in general has led
to a difficult start to the season for second-year running back
Carlos Hyde. Hyde started the season off on a huge note by leading
the position in fantasy points after Week 1, but has failed to
reach more than six fantasy points in four of his five games since.
His performance this past week against the Ravens was perhaps
the most disappointing of them all as the 49ers were actually
able to walk away with a win but Hyde rushed for just 55 yards
on the day. Like most running backs, Hyde has been most productive
in games where his team has won, but 55 yards on 21 carries is
just terrible. Of course, it’s worth noting that Hyde was
dealing with a foot injury, so he does get a bit of a pass. Still,
his failure to produce even RB2 numbers in four of six games this
season has to be a major concern, especially in tough matchups
like the one he will face here in Week 7.
The Seahawks have conceded the fourth-fewest fantasy points to
opposing running backs so far this season. In fact, they hadn’t
allowed a single touchdown to an opposing running back prior to
their Week 6 matchup when they gave up a pair of goal line scores
to the Panthers’ Jonathan Stewart. With Hyde having only
scored one touchdown over his past five games, a multiple touchdown
game for the former Ohio State Buckeye just doesn’t seem
likely. This might be one of the toughest matchups that Hyde will
play in all season, so benching him for an RB2 with a higher upside
might not be a bad option this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: With Ben Roethlisberger likely sidelined
again as he recovers from a knee injury, Pittsburgh will likely
to turn in a different direction for their Week 7 signal caller.
Veteran Mike Vick had moments where he looked great in relief
of Roethlisberger, but was ineffective as a whole and particularly
struggled to get the ball to his receivers, including last year’s
league-leader in receiving yardage, Antonio Brown. Brown was visibly
frustrated with Vick on numerous occasions, so the move to young
Landry Jones might not just be for production but also for team
chemistry. The third-year passer is not Big Ben, but he possess
a closer skill set to that of Roethlisberger. Both Antonio Brown
and Martavis Bryant should see an uptick in fantasy value with
Jones behind center, but be prepared for shorter passes to be
more common. Many young quarterbacks rely on the short-to-intermediate
passing routes for easier completions, which could mean more of
Brown than Bryant, who is better known for going up and getting
the ball down the field.
While it’s going to be tough to trust Jones for fantasy
purposes given his inexperience, if there was ever a matchup that
he could exploit, this might be it. The Chiefs have been absolutely
atrocious against the pass so far this season, having given up
the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including
14 passing touchdowns while only forcing four interceptions. With
them having given up so many points to quarterbacks, it shouldn’t
be surprising that the Chiefs are also horrible against wide receivers.
In fact, no defense has given up more fantasy points to opposing
wide receivers than Kansas City. Jones might be off of the fantasy
radar until we see more of him, but even he should be able to
do enough to make both Brown and Bryant viable fantasy options
this week.
Running Game Thoughts: With Roethlisberger expected to miss another
game, don’t be surprised to see the Steelers rely heavily
on their Pro Bowl running back, Le’Veon Bell. Bell might
be the best all-around back in the league so 25 touches would
not be surprising in any game, but especially when the passing
game is a bit shaky. In fact, Bell has touched the ball at least
24 times in each of his first four games since returning from
suspension. This type of workload makes him one of the highest-floor
running backs in all of fantasy football and it’s the reason
why he was taken as the No. 1 overall player in many drafts even
despite his two-game suspension. Along with being a great runner,
Bell is also one of the better pass-catching backs in football
as he has already made 18 catches in four games. However, it is
worth noting that he failed to catch a pass this past week for
the first time in his career. That won’t likely be the case
again as the Steelers and their young quarterback should look
to get the ball in Bell’s hands as early and often as possible.
The Chiefs haven’t really been good anywhere defensively
so far this season, but they’ve done a lot better against
the run than they have the pass. This past week, they held the
Vikings to just 89 rushing yards on 32 carries. In fact, other
than one large hiccup against the Bengals in Week 4, the Chiefs
haven't allowed a rushing touchdown in any other game this season.
Those facts are certainly not what you want to hear as a Bell
owner, but this is the type of player that you start every week
regardless of matchup. Few players have the ability to “go
off” in a game like Bell, so get him in your lineup even
though this is a tougher-than-expected matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: There are few positives that can be pulled
from Kansas City’s Week 6 loss to Minnesota, but one of
those things has to be that quarterback Alex Smith continued to
put up relatively similar fantasy numbers despite the team being
without Pro Bowl running back Jamaal Charles. Smith threw for
282 yards and a touchdown in the loss, marking the fifth time
in six games this season that he has reached 13 or more fantasy
points in a game. Late word on Thursday suggested Jeremy Maclin
(concussion), is expected to be cleared by an independent neurologist,
and should be available for the game.
If Maclin is unable to go, look for the Chiefs to spread the
ball out to a plethora of targets, making most of them a complete
crapshoot in this Week 7 matchup against the Steelers. Pittsburgh
currently ranks 19th in the league in fantasy points given up
to opposing quarterbacks so far this season and although they’ve
given up nearly 800 passing yards over their past two games, it
is worth considering that they have given up just six passing
touchdowns over their past five games. That includes matchups
against the likes of Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers and Joe Flacco.
Smith simply doesn’t have the upside to make for a quality
QB1 most weeks and this week is no exception. The only players
in this passing game who should be in fantasy lineups are Maclin
if he plays and tight end Travis Kelce who led all Chiefs pass-catchers
this past week with five receptions for 88 yards.
Running Game Thoughts: When Jamaal Charles went down with a torn
ACL, we knew that the Kansas City offense would have to change
dramatically. It’s hard to quantify how much Charles means
to his offense, but needless to say, he has been the focal point
of the offense for most of his career. With Charles out, the team
turned to the duo of Charcandrick West and Knile Davis to pick
up the slack. That didn’t happen, though, as the duo was
only able to contribute a total of 46 rushing yards on 14 carries.
Although West was the more productive of the two backs, neither
player showed much to be excited about from a fantasy standpoint
and if the team is intent on splitting snaps between the two backs,
it’s possible that neither player will become much of a
fantasy asset.
It would have to take a seriously desperate situation for fantasy
owners to consider either West or Davis this week as the duo will
be running against the No. 2 fantasy defense in shutting down
opposing running backs so far this season. Pittsburgh is one of
only two defenses (Philadelphia) that has not yet given up a single
touchdown to an opposing running back so far this season. Not
only that, but other than their Week 4 matchup against Justin
Forsett and the Ravens, the Steelers have held opposing running
backs to 70 or fewer rushing yards in every other game so far
this season. Fantasy owners would be wise to watch this situation
and see how it develops between West and Davis before committing
to either player for fantasy purposes.
Passing
Game Thoughts: He was injured early in the Browns’
Week 1 game and missed Week 2, but veteran quarterback Josh McCown
is enjoying a career resurgence not unlike the one he had a couple
of seasons back as a member of the Bears. McCown has thrown for
two touchdowns in each of his past four games while averaging
342 passing yards per game during that stretch. With McCown performing
at such a high level, wide receiver Travis Benjamin has surprisingly
become fantasy relevant this season as he is now the No. 4-scoring
wide receiver on the year in standard scoring leagues. Benjamin
had arguably his best game this past week against a very tough
Denver Broncos defense when he caught a season-high nine passes
for 117 yards. Prior to that game, Benjamin had not caught more
than six passes in any game this season, leading many to believe
that his per-target production would eventually force him to come
back to reality. That may not be the case, however, as Benjamin
is now getting targeted near the rate of some of the better WR1’s
in the game. It will be tough for Benjamin to stay quite this
productive, but this is one of those “ride it until it falls
apart” situations that should not be avoided.
Similar to Benjamin’s surprising breakout season has been
that of tight end Gary Barnidge. Barnidge seemingly came out of
nowhere this season and he has now seen his fantasy ranking rise
all the way up to third among all tight ends heading into Week
7. He’ll be up against a St. Louis defense that has done
a pretty good job of slowing down opposing tight ends, having
given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position
so far this season, but Barnidge’s hot streak cannot be
denied. The eighth-year tight end has turned into the Browns’
top target in the red zone and has now scored a total of five
touchdowns on the season, including at least one in each of his
past four games. The Rams defense as a whole has been good against
the pass, however, so this might be a wise week to bench McCown,
as St. Louis has given up the third-fewest fantasy points per
game to opposing quarterbacks on the year.
Running Game Thoughts: There was a lot of controversy surrounding
who would be the starting running back for the Browns during the
preseason. Now with six games completed, there doesn’t appear
to be a whole lot more clarity in this backfield. Although Isaiah
Crowell continues to be the player who gets the most carries,
it was actually rookie Duke Johnson who took the highest number
of snaps among the running backs in Week 6. Not only that, but
he was also the most productive player with the touches he got.
What’s been most frustrating, though, is that it hasn’t
just been Crowell and Johnson getting touches, but veteran Robert
Turbin also saw 10 carries in Week 6 while being on the field
for 23 percent of the team’s offensive snaps.
It’d be a stretch to call this unit a “three-headed
monster” at this point, but the Browns backs will be up
against a Rams defense that they could potentially exploit in
Week 7. St. Louis has given up 14 or more fantasy points to opposing
running backs in four of their first five games this season. They
did shut down Eddie Lacy and the Packers in their most recent
game, but that hasn’t exactly been the most difficult task
as Lacy has struggled in almost every game. Nevertheless, the
fact that none of the Browns running backs has been “featured”
makes it very difficult to trust any of them, even in a good matchup.
If you have to choose one, however, Johnson might be the best
option, at least in PPR leagues, as he has made a total of 24
catches over his past four games.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The bye week certainly game at a good time
for the St. Louis Rams who are coming off of an embarrassing Week
5 loss to the Packers which saw quarterback Nick Foles throw four
interceptions. Foles had actually been excellent at avoiding mistakes
prior to that game, having thrown only one interception in his
first four games, but any time a player has a four-interception
day, it has to cause concern. Fantasy owners will be hoping that
Foles and his receivers have worked on their timing during the
bye week because it has not been a great start to the season for
this unit from a fantasy standpoint. Foles has only thrown 200
yards one time this season and that came in Week 1. He has also
failed to throw for multiple touchdown passes in all but one game.
It’s extremely difficult to trust any player in this St.
Louis passing game, but their Week 7 matchup against the Browns
is actually not too difficult. Despite having some very talented
players in their secondary, Cleveland ranks 20th in fantasy points
given up to opposing quarterbacks and they’ve given up a
total of 11 touchdown passes while intercepting only four passes.
With cornerback Joe Haden still trying to get cleared after suffering
a concussion, there is a very realistic possibility that the Browns
secondary will not be at 100 percent. Still, it would be best
to avoid any of the players in this passing game until one of
them proves that they can provide some consistent fantasy production.
Running Game Thoughts: The Todd Gurley is officially underway
and the rookie running back doesn’t look like he’s
going to be limited whatsoever as we head toward midseason. Many
believed that Gurley wouldn’t see any playing time until
right around this point in the regular season and even more believed
that he would be slowly worked into the offense as a complementary
player for at least a few weeks. That certainly has not been the
case, however. Gurley made his debut in Week 4 and did only take
six carries in that game, but he has since been the unquestioned
workhorse of the St. Louis offense, including taking a total of
51 touches over his past two games. It hasn’t just been
volume, either, as Gurley has broken off some huge runs and is
currently averaging over 5.7 yards per carry on the season. Given
Jeff Fisher’s history of allowing his backs to be true “bell
cows,” there is little reason to believe that defenses won’t
continue to see very heavy doses of this extremely talented back
on a week-to-week basis.
With Gurley touching the ball as much as he is, he’s almost
a lock to be a top-10 ranked running back on any list, but the
opportunity he has here in Week 7 puts him in the conversation
to be the top scoring running back in all of fantasy this week.
The Browns have been absolutely humiliated by opposing running
backs so far this season, as they’ve given up a league-leading
789 rushing yards on the season – 56 more yards than either
other team. They’ve given up at least 150 rushing yards
in four of their six games, so now is the time for the Rams and
fantasy owners alike to rely on their young tailback.
Passing
Game Thoughts: In a year with some seriously disappointing
quarterbacks, fantasy owners have been searching players who can
step in and fill in for their fallen starters. Second year quarterback
Derek Carr has been one of those players as the Raiders signal
caller has had a couple of nice performances early this season,
including throwing for multiple touchdowns in three of his four
full games. With Carr’s success has come some great fantasy
production at wide receiver for the Raiders. Veteran Michael Crabtree
is enjoying a nice bounceback after struggling with the 49ers
in 2014 as he has already caught four or more passes in every
game this season. Meanwhile superstar rookie wide receiver Amari
Cooper is already proving why he was so highly touted coming out
of college as he has he has also made at least four catches in
every game. Cooper currently leads the Raiders wide receiver group
in receptions, yards and touchdowns and has made himself into
an every-week fantasy starter almost regardless of matchup.
This Oakland passing game had a week off to continue to work
on their timing and they might need it as they go up against a
San Diego defense that currently ranks 10th in fantasy points
per game given up to opposing quarterbacks. They’re coming
off of a game when they held Aaron Rodgers to a modest (for him)
255 yards and two touchdowns in Green Bay, so a home game against
Derek Carr and the Raiders is certainly a less intimidating game
for this unit. Still, the Raiders have already proven that they
are not to be overlooked on offense and with Philip Rivers playing
as well as he is, it would not be surprising to see the Raiders
have to throw the ball quite a bit to keep up on the scoreboard.
Running Game Thoughts: The Raiders have long been a team that
has struggled to run the ball, but Latavius Murray is at least
producing at a level that is acceptable. His 4.2 yards per carry
is middle-of-the-pack among starting running backs, but Murray
has also played some tough run defenses including the Ravens and
most recently the Broncos. The matchup against Denver was obviously
a very tough one and one that most running backs have been unable
to do much against, so it’s not entirely surprising to see
him struggle in that matchup with only 3.0 yards per carry. On
the positive side, Murray is seeing no competition for carries,
so his floor remains relatively high, especially in good matchups.
This is one of those great matchups.
In Week 7, Murray will be running against a San Diego run defense
that ranks dead last in the league in fantasy points per game
given up to opposing running backs. San Diego has conceded 733
rushing yards to opposing running backs – second most in
the league – while also giving up a total of nine touchdowns
to the position through their first six games. Only one opponent
– Detroit – has failed to rush for at least 100 yards
against San Diego. With the San Diego passing game going as well
as it is, the Raiders might opt to run the ball early in an attempt
to control the clock and keep Philip Rivers off the field. Either
way, this is the type of matchup that Murray is certainly capable
of exploiting for a big fantasy day.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Even the most optimistic fantasy owner could
not have hoped for the monster production that they’ve been
getting out of San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers. Rivers threw
for 500 yards in a losing effort when he and the Chargers fell
short of beating the Packers in Green Bay after being stopped
in the red zone on their final possession. Rivers currently leads
all quarterbacks with an astonishing 2,117 passing yards –
more than 350 more than any other passer. In fact, Rivers’
pace puts him on pace to not just break, but shatter the all-time
single season passing yardage record. Rivers’ success has
also had a big effect on his receivers. Since coming back from
his suspension, tight end Antonio Gates has stepped right back
into being an elite fantasy tight end, catching a total of 18
passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns over his two games. Meanwhile,
wide receiver Keenan Allen currently leads all NFL players with
53 receptions on the year despite being targeted 29 fewer times
than the player behind him, DeAndre Hopkins.
Unfortunately, Allen is currently dealing with a hip injury which
may hold him out of Sunday’s game against the Raiders. His
practice status on Friday may be the determining factor on if
Allen will be able to go. If he doesn’t play, look for wide
receiver Malcom Floyd to get additional playing time. Floyd had
a nice game this past week when he caught five passes for 95 yards
against the Packers. The players in line to have the best production,
however, are the tight end duo of Gates (knee) and Ladarius Green.
The Raiders have been awful against opposing tight ends so far
this season. Despite shutting out the Broncos’ tight ends,
the Raiders still rank dead last in fantasy points per game given
up to opposing tight ends, having already conceded an astonishing
32 receptions for 388 yards and six touchdowns to the position.
With both Gates and Green playing at a high level right now and
the San Diego wide receiver group banged up, it would not be at
all surprising to see Rivers target his tight ends quite often
in this one. Gates is a must-start in any format and Green makes
for a sneaky play for those in need of a tight end due to bye
weeks or injuries.
Running Game Thoughts: The San Diego running game has been a
tough nut to crack so far this year as the shifty veteran Danny
Woodhead has clearly outplayed first round rookie Melvin Gordon,
but the duo is still seeing nearly equal playing time. Gordon
was finally benched in the second half of the Chargers’
Week 6 loss to the Packers when he fumbled multiple times, but
he is expected to be back on the field and again splitting snaps
with Woodhead. Unless the Chargers opt to bench Gordon again to
teach him a lesson, which seems unlikely, both players will remain
borderline starters at best.
The duo will be up against an Oakland Raiders defense which has
been considered one of the best running back matchups for years
now, but they’ve quietly been decent against the run so
far this season. Since the beating they took at the hands of the
Bengals in Week 1, the Raiders have given up an average of just
72 rushing yards per game and just one total rushing touchdown
over their past four games. Gordon hasn’t yet rushed for
90 yards or scored a single touchdown on the year so he’s
not exactly worth a start for fantasy purposes. Woodhead is only
worth consideration as a low-end RB2 or Flex in PPR leagues.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Ravens are 1-5 for the first time in
team history and much of that has to be attributed to the struggles
of quarterback Joe Flacco. While he has been acceptable and even
good in some games from a fantasy standpoint, his turnovers have
been too much for the team to overcome. Flacco has already thrown
seven interceptions and with only eight touchdowns, that ratio
simply isn’t good enough to get Baltimore in the win column.
Still, with the Ravens have been down in games, Flacco has been
able to throw for some decent fantasy totals, including his Week
6 game against the 49ers when he threw for 343 yards and 2 touchdowns.
That marked the first time this season where Flacco has thrown
for that total or more, but he has failed to exceed even 210 yards
through the air in his other three contests.
In Week 7, Flacco will be passing against an Arizona defense
that has been excellent against the pass so far this season. The
Cardinals have given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game
to the position including just nine passing touchdowns against
through six games. Most impressive, however, is the rate that
the unit is forcing turnovers. Their 11 interceptions forced are
two more than any other team through this point in the season.
With Flacco being as prone to interceptions as he has been so
far this year, all indications point toward a potential multiple-interception
day for the Cardinals defense even if they do give up some yardage.
Running Game Thoughts: After a ridiculous breakout season in
2014, Baltimore Ravens running back Justin Forsett got off to
a very slow start in 2015, rushing for a total of just 124 yards
in his first three games while not adding much in the passing
game. He has really stepped things up over his past three games,
however, contributing an average of 19 points per game in PPR
formats. Not surprisingly, Forsett’s usage has been up in
his past three games as well, touching the ball at least 24 times
in each contest. With him being the team’s early down and
third down back, Forsett is one of the few all-purpose backs remaining
in the game and that makes him an every week fantasy starter at
the position.
Forsett does have a tough matchup this week, however, as he goes
up against an Arizona defense that has only conceded one rushing
touchdown on the year. Not only that, but they just got done holding
Le’Veon Bell in check this past week. Forsett is used similarly
to Bell, but the Ravens might be behind in this game which could
cause less rushing yardage for Forsett. As noted before, though,
that doesn’t necessarily mean that Forsett won’t have
a productive day. He’s particularly useful in PPR formats
where it would not be surprising to see him catch six or more
passes against the Cardinals defense.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Even in a disappointing performance where
he and the Cardinals put just 13 points on the scoreboard, quarterback
Carson Palmer remained one of the better quarterbacks in fantasy
football against the Steelers in Week 6. Palmer threw for a season-high
421 yards but just one touchdown and two interceptions, which
limited what could have otherwise been an even bigger fantasy
day. With Palmer throwing for over 400 yards, there was plenty
of production to go around for his wide receivers as all three
of his top targets got involved. Larry Fitzgerald, who is currently
the No. 3 wide receiver in all of fantasy football, caught eight
passes for 93 yards while second-year wideout John Brown had his
best game of the season, pulling in 10 passes for 196 yards. The
big surprise, though, was Michael Floyd who stepped up and scored
his first touchdown of the season with his five catches for 50
yards. If all three Cardinals receivers can remain relevant, Palmer
may very well finish as a top five fantasy quarterback this season.
While he struggled a bit against the Steelers, Palmer’s
Week 7 matchup against the Ravens could produce some absolutely
monstrous fantasy numbers. The Ravens rank dead last in fantasy
points per game given up to opposing quarterbacks so far this
season. They’ve already given up three games of 22 or more
fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including back-to-back
terrible defensive performances against Colin Kaepernick and Josh
McCown. Palmer has been excellent this season and with the Cardinals
receivers playing as well as they are, it would not at all be
surprising to see Palmer and at least one Cardinals receiver finish
at or near the top fantasy producers in Week 7.
Running Game Thoughts: The career resurgence for veteran running
back Chris Johnson has been something that very few saw coming,
but the former 2,000-yard rusher currently ranks 11th among all
fantasy running backs (standard scoring) heading into Week 7.
Johnson is currently fifth in the league in rushing yardage, which
has allowed him to keep his “starting” job in Arizona
despite Andre Ellington returning from injury and rookie David
Johnson making some nice plays when he has been given the opportunity.
Head coach Bruce Arians prefers to give the ball to his veterans,
so there’s no reason to be concerned, at least at this point,
that Chris Johnson’s playing time will be going down.
While the Ravens have been atrocious against opposing passing
games so far this season, they’ve actually remained relatively
solid against the run, continuing what has been their strong suit
over the past two seasons. Baltimore has only given up more than
75 rushing yards once so far this season and that came against
the 2014 leading fantasy scorer at running back, Le’Veon
Bell, back in Week 4. Other than that, they’ve been excellent
against the run, which doesn’t exactly bode well for Johnson.
The Cardinals are much more likely to come out passing in this
game than they are running, so don’t expect a huge game
from CJ2K despite his early season success.
Passing
Game Thoughts: So far this season Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t
really built upon the success of his rookie season. He hasn’t
been all that bad, but he just hasn’t taken the next step
to become anything more than a league average quarterback right
now. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner has seemed reluctant to
open up the offense, and while Bridgewater did take a few rare
shots downfield last week, this has been mostly a short game passing
attack. Bridgewater is averaging only 204.6 passing yards per
game and has only 3 passing touchdowns against 4 interceptions,
including two really poor decisions last week in a tight game
against Kansas City. On the bright side, injuries to Charles Johnson
and Jarius Wright opened up playing time for rookie Stefon Diggs
who responded with 13 catches for 216 yards in the last two games.
Fellow wide-out Mike Wallace recently compared the youngster to
his former teammate Antonio Brown, high praise indeed.
The Detroit pass defense has been mostly abused this season, allowing
266.3 passing yards per game with 10 touchdowns. The Vikings will
need to exploit this deficiency and may be inclined to open up
the passing game a bit this week. Last week the Lions won a shootout
with the Chicago Bears in spite of their poor defense. This week
could be more of the same.
Running Game Thoughts: 30 year-old
Adrian Peterson was not showing any signs of age over the season’s
first four games, but had an extremely poor showing last week
against a Kansas City defense missing some key pieces on the defensive
front. Peterson rushed for only 60 yards on 26 carries, but even
with that poor efficiency, he is still averaging 4.3 yards per
carry on the season. Peterson of course missed most of the 2014
season under suspension and that may have done his body some good.
Before last week he was coming off a stretch of vintage performances,
and the Kansas City game was more a product of having no running
room than him looking worn down. His owners shouldn’t have
any fears going forward. The Vikings lost a key member of the
offensive line in the preseason and the line hasn’t shown
much consistency, but Peterson’s combination of strength
and speed is unmatched in this league allowing him to excel despite
the blocking up front.
The Lions present tissue paper like resistance against the run
which should help put a spring in AP’s step. The Lions have
allowed 120.5 rushing yards per game and have yielded a league
leading 10 rushing touchdowns to their opponents. The sound you’re
hearing is Peterson owner’s squeals of joy.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matthew Stafford has struggled for most
of the 2015 season but is coming off his best game last week against
division rival Chicago. He’ll look to build on his 405-yard
4-touchdown performance when he faces his second consecutive divisional
opponent. For the first time all season, the Lions looked to push
the ball downfield instead of using a short passing which negates
the advantage of outside receivers Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate.
Last week, both wideouts found the endzone, albeit Tate’s
coming on a controversial replay aided “catch” that
bounced into the hands of a Bears’ defender simultaneously
to him landing in the endzone. Tight End Eric Ebron missed his
second consecutive game last week and his replacement Tim Wright
caught a long touchdown pass from Stafford as well. Stafford,
Johnson and Tate fantasy owners have to hope that Jim Caldwell
and Joe Lombardi continue to let the team play to its strengths
and let Stafford throw deep allowing Johnson and Tate to use their
superior athleticism to make plays.
The Vikings’ pass defense has managed to be an above average
unit allowing 240 yards per game but only 6 touchdown passes in
five games. Their lack of a strong pass rush and playmakers in
the secondary should however help Stafford, as pressure and resulting
mistakes have been sore spots during the season.
Running Game Thoughts: Ameer Abdullah
and the Lions rushing attack have been highly disappointing after
the hype of the preseason. Abdullah has struggled to find running
room and has found himself in the doghouse recently for putting
the ball on the ground. Last season’s leading rusher Joique
Bell has been a non factor as the 29-year-old back is breaking
down with injuries after trying to recover all offseason from
multiple surgeries. Rookie Zach Zenner showed some promise but
was placed on IR after cracking some ribs in the last game. Scat-back
Theo Riddick has been the one bright spot in the running game,
and has seen his role expand as a result. He’s no longer
just being used as passing down back, but is being used more often
to carry the ball. Riddick has outstanding quickness and so far
has been effective even when asked to run between the tackles.
The Vikings gave up 230 rushing yards in San Francisco on opening
Monday Night, but have settled down since. Despite that game,
the defensive is only allowing 111.8 rushing yards per game and
has only allowed three scores on the ground.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Buffalo has a passing game littered with
potential fantasy options like Tyrod Taylor, Percy Harvin, and
Sammy Watkins. Unfortunately, not one of those players will suit
up for the team this week in London due to injury. Thankfully,
there is one player fantasy owners can count on in tight end Charles
Clay. He’s second at his position in targets and receptions,
and seventh in fantasy points. Clay has been productive in most
games this year and Buffalo’s injury-riddled lineup should
translate into plenty of work for him this week against Jacksonville.
Chris Hogan and Robert Woods are expected to start at wide receiver
but both are nothing more than FLEX considerations.
The Jaguars are 21st in the NFL in pass defense, tied for 19th
in passing scores given up, and dead last with just one interception
all year. Despite those below average numbers, they rank between
15th and 18th in fantasy points per game (FPts/G) allowed to quarterbacks,
wide receivers, and tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy
returned from injury last week to post his best fantasy output
this year with 90 rushing yards while also scoring his first rushing
touchdown. The injury problems plaguing Buffalo’s passing
game should work to the benefit of McCoy’s fantasy owners,
as will the Jaguars’ issues in allowing running backs to
pile up touchdowns and receiving yards.
Jacksonville is 14th in the league against the run but tied for
22nd in rushing scores permitted. They are allowing the fewest
yards per carry in the league, but also the third-most receiving
yards and most receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs,
helping them to be the sixth-most generous squad in the league
in FPts/G allowed to backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Blake Bortles threw for 331 yards and three
scores in the Jaguars’ loss to the Texans last week, marking
the second consecutive game in which he amassed over 300 yards
and at least three touchdowns. He also tossed a trio of interceptions,
though it was the first time he had multiple picks in a game since
Week 1. Bortles has become a legit fantasy weapon, ranking fourth
at his position in fantasy points. The second-year quarterback
is just one of numerous Jags who have vaulted into fantasy relevance
this year, as wideout Allen Robinson also ranks fourth in fantasy
points at his position, while Allen Hurns remains in the top-15,
and tight end Julius Thomas is finally healthy.
Robinson and Hurns are dealing with injuries but should still
play, and in fact all four of the aforementioned Jacksonville
players have a spot as fantasy starters this week against the
Bills. Buffalo is 23rd in the league in pass defense and just
two teams have surrendered more passing scores than they have.
For the season, they have allowed the ninth-most FPts/G to opposing
quarterbacks, and 10th-most to both wide receivers and tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: While the
Jacksonville passing game has become a go-to source of fantasy
points, the same is far from true when it comes to their running
game. T.J. Yeldon (groin) was out last week with an injury, and
the results from Toby Gerhart and Denard Robinson were predictably
woeful.
Even if Yeldon does suit up this week (he was limited Thursday),
he’s struggled to get going this year and doesn’t
warrant being in fantasy lineups versus Buffalo. The Bills are
fourth in the NFL in run defense, tied for sixth-fewest rushing
touchdowns given up, and are 13th in YPC allowed. They have given
up a healthy chunk of receiving yards and a couple scores to backs,
which is why they’re merely average in terms of FPts/G allowed
to runners.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan rebounded from a poor outing to
throw for 295 yards and a pair of touchdowns without an interception
during Atlanta’s loss to New Orleans last week. Still, he
hasn’t quite met the expectations of his fantasy owners
this year, with only eight touchdowns in six games and ranking
10th among quarterbacks in fantasy points. Wideout Julio Jones
has dropped to third in fantasy scoring at his position, and come
Sunday it will have been nearly a full month since his last trip
into the end zone.
Nonetheless, he’s always a threat to have a huge game, and
both he and Ryan should be considered fantasy starters this week
against the Titans. Tennessee owns the league’s number one
pass defense, though they are tied for 13th in touchdown throws
permitted. The Titans have been just above average in fantasy
points allowed to quarterbacks and wide receivers, but have struggled
versus tight ends, and are giving the sixth-most FPts/G to players
at that position.
Running Game Thoughts: “Boy,
that escalated quickly. I mean, that really got out of hand fast.”
Those words, infamously spoken by Ron Burgundy, weren’t
about what’s transpired this season with Devonta Freeman,
but they capture the situation impeccably. Two games into the
year, Freeman was contributing decent numbers as a receiver, but
had just 43 rushing yards on 22 carries with a single touchdown.
In the four games since, he has run for 100 or more yards three
times and has a total of nine touchdowns, with multiple scores
in all but one game.
There isn’t a running back anywhere in the vicinity of Freeman
in terms of fantasy points, and there’s no reason to think
he’ll be slowed this week in Tennessee. The Titans are 28th
in the NFL against the run and 22nd in rushing scores allowed.
They are also 26th in YPC allowed, but despite the poor numbers
against the run, are giving up the seventh-fewest FPts/G to running
backs. The reason is simple – receiving. The Titans have
allowed just 74 receiving yards and no scores to opposing backs,
which has highly limited the fantasy output of the runners they’ve
faced this year.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Marcus Mariota had a dream start to his
NFL career, but the realities of playing quarterback in the league
should be hitting him about now – just like opposing defenses.
He was sacked five times last week in Tennessee’s loss to
Miami, and has endured the third-most sacks in the league. The
rookie has three touchdowns and five interceptions over his last
three games and has dropped out of the top-20 in fantasy scoring
at his position. Mariota is also suffering with a sprained MCL,
and may not even suit up this week. Check his Friday practice
reports.
Regardless, the Titans really have just a single fantasy-worthy
player in their passing attack right now, and that’s tight
end Delanie Walker, who nearly had 100 yards last week and has
a good match-up with Atlanta. The Falcons are 29th in the NFL
in pass defense and are tied for fewest sacks, but are also tied
for seventh-fewest passing scores given up. The lack of scores
means fewer fantasy points against, and as such they are allowing
the seventh-fewest FPts/G to quarterbacks and the fourth-fewest
FPts/G to wideouts, though Atlanta has also given up the seventh-most
FPts/G to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: There is
no running game in Tennessee right now, a problem that doesn’t
look like it will be rectified anytime soon. The team continues
to split carries between Antonio Andrews, Dexter McCluster, and
Bishop Sankey, and none have established themselves. Fantasy owners
have no reason whatsoever to even look in the direction of a Titans
runner against the Falcons, despite what is normally a great match-up
for opposing runners. Atlanta continues to be paradoxical, ranking
first in the league in run defense but last in rushing scores
allowed. They’re fourth in YPC given up, but no team has
allowed more receiving yards to running backs, and only the Chargers
are giving up more FPts/G to players at the position.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Saints beat the Falcons last week with
Drew Brees throwing for over 300 yards for the fourth time in
five games, but he had just a single touchdown throw, and hasn’t
had more than two scoring passes in a contest this season. Brees
isn’t throwing touchdowns, but at least he isn’t compounding
the problem by tossing interceptions, with just three this season.
He continues to spread the ball around, as six different Saints
had at least three receptions last week, led by Ben Watson’s
10 catches, 127 yards and one score. It was Watson’s second
game in a row with a touchdown, but first game all year with at
least 45 receiving yards, but he’s still a second-tier fantasy
option.
This week, fantasy owners should put their focus on Brees, Willie
Snead and Brandin Cooks, with Brees a QB1 and the two wideouts
in the WR2 range against a pliable Colts pass defense. Indianapolis
is 28th in the league in pass defense and tied for 23rd in passing
touchdowns given up while also ranking among the worst in the
NFL in yards per pass attempt and sacks. Those struggles has led
to them having allowed the sixth-most FPts/G to quarterbacks and
the third-most FPts/G to wide receivers, though they’ve
been solid against opposing tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram
found the end zone twice last week against Atlanta, but ran for
less than 50 yards and averaged just 2.3 YPC. He’s in the
top-10 in fantasy points, but has run for at least 60 yards just
once this year, and is too inconsistent to be relied upon weekly.
Yet he should be a RB2 or flex play this week with a decent match-up
against Indianapolis. The Colts are 20th in both rush defense
and rushing touchdowns surrendered, while ranking 17th in YPC
allowed and 13th in FPts/G permitted to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Andrew Luck had his best statistical game
of the season last week in the Colts’ loss to the Patriots,
with 312 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. It was
the first time this season that Luck threw for more than 260 yards,
and the first time he ended the game without multiple interceptions.
It was only a matter of time before Luck reverted to form, and
it seems unlikely he’ll have another stretch this season
as poor as the one he began with.
Luck’s main targets continue to be wideouts T.Y. Hilton
and Donte Moncrief, with each catching touchdowns last week. It
was Hilton’s first score of the year, but more are on the
way, starting this week against New Orleans. The Saints are 24th
in the NFL against the pass and tied with a number of other clubs
(including the Colts) for 23rd in touchdown throws surrendered.
They are also second-to-last in interceptions and have given up
two rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, which add up to a team
that has allowed the second-most FPts/G to players at that position.
New Orleans has also allowed the fourth-most FPts/G to tight ends,
but the 11th-fewest to wideouts.
Running Game Thoughts: Frank Gore
continues to be solid, and picked up 78 yards on just 13 carries
last week against the Patriots. He isn’t much of a threat
as a pass-catcher, with only 11 receptions and 62 receiving yards
this year, and has carried the rock more than 15 times in a game
just twice, so his potential is limited. Still, the veteran has
to be in fantasy lineups this week due to his great match-up against
the Saints. New Orleans is third-to-last in both run defense and
rushing scores surrendered, are fifth-to-last in YPC allowed,
and have given up the fifth-most FPts/G in the league to opposing
running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Sam Bradford has thrown for nine touchdowns
this season, a decent but not great number which puts him in the
top-10 in that statistic. He’s also tossed nine interceptions,
the second-most in the league and crippling to fantasy owners.
Bradford threw three of those picks last week in the Eagles’
win over the Giants, and now has multiple interceptions in four
of his six games this season. Bradford isn’t alone in his
irrelevance to fantasy owners – somewhat remarkably, Philly
doesn’t have a single player in their passing game that
is reliable for fantasy purposes.
Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz have the potential to become consistent
starters, but aren’t right now, and no Eagles pass-catcher
(or thrower, obviously) should be in fantasy lineups this week
against Carolina. The Panthers are 15th in the NFL in pass defense,
but other numbers are more revealing. The team is tied for fewest
passing scores allowed, third in yards per attempt given up, and
tied for third in interceptions. They have allowed the sixth-fewest
FPts/G to quarterbacks, the fifth-fewest FPts/G to wide receivers,
and are tied for 10th-fewest FPts/G given up to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: DeMarco Murray
has finally started to produce, running for a combined 195 yards
and two scores in his last two games. He had 20 and 21 carries,
respectively, in the two contests, and should continue to be fed
the ball often this week against the Panthers. Carolina is 12th
in the league in run defense and tied for 20th in rushing scores
permitted. In between 12 and 20 is 16, and that’s exactly
where the team ranks in terms of FPts/G given up to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton had 269 passing yards last week
against Seattle, but he had two interceptions with just one touchdown,
which was the first time this season he had more picks than scores.
But Newton deserves credit considering he has limited receiving
options – basically there’s Greg Olsen and well, Greg
Olsen. Ted Ginn has had some nice moments but it’s hard
to ignore his long history of statistical irrelevance. Fantasy
owners are just going to have to be pleased with Newton and Olsen,
with each earning their place as weekly starters, including this
week against the Eagles.
Philadelphia is 19th in passing defense and tied for 13th in passing
touchdowns surrendered while ranking among the league leaders
in sacks, interceptions, and yard per pass attempt allowed. They
are all over the map in terms of fantasy points allowed, ranking
in the middle in FPts/G given up to quarterbacks, are tied for
fifth-most allowed to wideouts, but have permitted the sixth-fewest
FPts/G to tight ends.
Running Game Thoughts: There is
good news and bad news regarding Jonathan Stewart. The good news
is he scored twice last week against the Seahawks. The bad news
is they were his first touchdowns of the season. Cam Newton leads
the team with three scores on the ground and has just 73 fewer
rushing yards than Stewart this year.
Stewart has established himself as little more than a flex play
most weeks, and it is advisable to keep him out of fantasy lineups
entirely versus Philly. The Eagles are eighth in the league against
the run, but tied for fewest rushing scores allowed, are giving
up the third-fewest yards per carry, and only the Jets have allowed
fewer FPts/G to running backs.
Passing
Game Thoughts: 158 yards. That is what DeAndre Hopkins
is AVERAGING over his last three games. While everyone was looking
at Odell Beckham, Julio Jones and Antonio Brown, Hopkins was calmly
becoming THE WR1. If we were redrafting now, he would go first
round and might be the first receiver off the board. If he continues
on this pace (which, admittedly, is unlikely), he projects to
approach 2,000 yards receiving with double digit TDs. DHop is
on pace to absolutely shatter the single season targets record
set by Rob Moore in 1997 (208). The most impressive aspect of
Hopkins’ electric start to 2015 – he has done this
with a QB carousel that would give any receiver a headache. If
you look at the top receivers in recent history – Beckham,
Julio, Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant – what
do they all have in common? The answer is a very good QB. Matt
Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, and both Mannings are all
top end talents. Hopkins opened the year having to deal with Brian
Hoyer, who was then promptly benched for Ryan Mallett, who was
then benched for Hoyer again. It just didn’t matter. Defensive
coordinators, corners, double teams, and bad QB play can’t
stop Hopkins.
Fresh off his best game of the season (10-148-2), Hopkins will
take his talents to South Beach against a rejuvenated Dolphins
defense also fresh off their best game of the season. The Dolphins
allow 238.4 yards passing a game and have allowed 8 TDs through
the air. They have also faced one of the easiest schedules of
opposing QBs you’ll ever see – Kirk Cousins, Blake
Bortles, Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Marcus Mariota. Only
two of those teams roster a physically imposing WR – the
Jaguars Week 2 and the Jets Week 4. Allen Robinson and Brandon
Marshall torched the Dolphins for 155 yards 128 yards respectively.
There is nothing that will convince me DHop won’t do the
same.
Running Game Thoughts: The Texans were supposed to be a team
that controlled the ball on the ground via Arian Foster. If Bill
O’Brien knows what’s best for them, they will continue
to run this offense through DeAndre Hopkins. Foster has been a
complete nonfactor on the ground since his Week 4 return. Even
disregarding his opening salvo as he was clearly being eased in
with just 8 carries, Foster has received 18 and 19 carries his
last two games and totaled just 94 yards. That’s not what
fantasy owners nor the Texans are looking for. However, fantasy
owners have not been disappointed as he’s been an integral
part of the passing game. Two weeks ago, Foster caught 9 passes
for 77 yards. Last week, he caught 5 for 59 and scored his first
TD of the season.
If there were ever a week for Foster to get back on track on
the ground, it’s this one. The Dolphins sport the league’s
second worst run defense, giving up 141 yards per game on the
ground. They have been abused by Alfred Morris (121 yards), Karlos
Williams (110 yards), and Chris Ivory (166 yards). The two backs
they contained: rookie T.J. Yeldon and the calamity that is the
Titans backfield. This will be the Dolphins’ first home
game under Dan Campbell so it’s hard to use previous performance
as a reliable indicator of what this game will look like, but
the players haven’t changed. I think Foster gets his this
week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Dolphins won last week, but it had little
to do with Ryan Tannehill. He completed 75.9% of his passes, which
is impressive, but he is still turning the ball over too much.
The “leap” is not happening. Tannehill has now thrown
7 interceptions in his last three games compared to 6 TDs. He
targeted TE Jordan Cameron 8 times, which is great, but was only
able to connect on three of them. At least for the sake of Cameron
owners, one was in the end zone. Jarvis Landry saw just 4 targets,
which hopefully was just a product of game flow. He did salvage
his fantasy day by rushing for a TD that I re-watched six times
and still can’t figure out how he wasn’t tackled.
Whether it’s via receptions, punt returns, or end arounds,
Landry finds ways to produce. Coach Campbell also promoted Kenny
Stills to the starting lineup, which changed nothing. Rishard
Matthews reemerged, catching all 6 of his targets for 85 yards.
The Texans are right there with the Dolphins pass defense, giving
up 239.8 yards per game. They’ve allowed 12 scores through
the air and just got abused by Allen Robinson, Julius Thomas,
and Bryan Walters (who?) with Blake Bortles lighting them up for
331 yards and 3 TDs. The Texans did force Bortles to throw 3 interceptions,
but such things are expected when Bortles throws the ball 53 times.
Ryan Tannehill will not throw the ball 53 times. No chance. Expect
another performance in line with what he’s been doing this
season.
Running Game Thoughts: “Free at last. Free at least. Thank
God almighty, we are free at last.” The great reverend Dr.
Martin Luther King, Jr’s famous quote applies quite well
to the Dolphins and their running game. Finally free of Joe Philbin,
new coach Dan Campbell decided that giving the ball to his running
back that averaged 5.1 yards per carry last year is a good idea.
Lamar Miller saw a season high 19 carries and was predictably
efficient, totaling 113 yards and finding the end zone for the
first time this season. He averaged…wait for it…5.9
yards per carry! You’re shocked! So is Philbin. I believe
coaches get way too much of the blame in a lot of situations where
most of the time, there isn’t anything any coach can do
with the talent around him. This is not one of those times. Philbin
is absolutely to blame. I don’t care if he didn’t
actually call the plays. When you’re best offensive player
is your running back, it is your job as a head coach to tell your
offensive coordinator to make sure that guy gets the ball more
than nine times per game. Coaches get fired all the time, but
I can’t remember one off the top of my head in recent memory
more deserving of losing his job. Thankfully, the Dolphins “powers
that be” agreed, and now Miller’s fantasy value has
been restored.
The Texans have been decidedly average against the run, ranking
16th in yards allowed per game. They have allowed 6 rushing TDs,
which bodes well for Miller’s chances of finding the end
zone again. The Dolphins, under the new regime, will look to build
on their success and that came from running the ball. Expect a
heavy dose of Miller again.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Another week, another 100-yard game for
Brandon Marshall making it five straight. He added a TD as well
as he continues to perform like the WR1 he’s always been.
Another week, another TD for Eric Decker. His games played to
TD ratio is 1:1. Unsustainable? Yes. Impressive? Yes. Ryan Fitzpatrick
continues to perform admirably and for all his career struggles,
he hasn’t sapped the value of Marshall or Decker.
Next up is a trip to New England for a showdown with the red
hot Patriots. The winner of this game will be atop the AFC East.
The Patriots have given up 9 passing TDs on the year, which is
encouraging for at least one of Marshall or Decker finding the
end zone. The Jets should have to throw at some point if they
want to keep up with the Patriots high-octane offense. Despite
this rivalry’s one-sidedness, recent games have been relatively
close since the infamous Mark Sanchez “butt-fumble”
game on Thanksgiving 2012. Since that game, the margins of victory
have been 3, 3 (Jets win), 2, and 1. Those expecting a blowout
should be weary. Those expecting points, however, should be excited.
Running Game Thoughts: Give Chris Ivory a No. 34 Seahawks jersey
and don’t tell me – I might actually think he’s
Beast Mode, because that’s what Ivory looks like on the
field. The Jets hadn’t played in two weeks, but Ivory didn’t
miss a beat. As if 20 carries for 146 yards wasn’t enough,
Ivory added 3 catches for 50 yards. He is performing at an elite
RB1 level and given the absence of high level RBs, he is as valuable
as anyone, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. If we redrafted now,
I’m not sure he’d make it out of the first round and
certainly not out of the second.
The Patriots give up 4.8 ypc on the ground. They’ve allowed
just three rushing scores on the season, but part of that is due
to them making their opponents throw. They will try and do the
same to the Jets. They’ll probably succeed to an extent,
but Ivory will still be effective. The Jets are not going to abandon
the run early and Ivory has shown he doesn’t need much to
get going. Until Ivory gives us a reason to doubt him, don’t
bother tempering expectations. Fire up Ivory with confidence.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Last week was just another walk in the park
for Tom Brady - 312 passing yards, 3 TDs, and…gasp! An interception!
He is human? Maybe. If ever an interception wasn’t a QB’s
fault, it was this one. If I had to allocate blame, it would be
Edelman 100%, Brady 0%. The interception undoubtedly made Brady
extra angry. The Colts took a 1-point lead into the half and then
didn’t score again until the game was out of reach; while
Brady threw two second half TDs. The Colts were able to bracket
Rob Gronkowski, limiting him to just 3 catches for 50 yards. He
had a fine fantasy day, though, as he found the end zone on a
simple catch and run where the safety had absolutely no shot at
tackling him. Edelman did something to his right ring finger,
which may or may not have affected him. Reports I read from doctors
indicate that the injury did not impact his ability to catch.
For his sake, I hope it did, because that was otherwise the worst
performance of his career. I don’t expect him to miss this
week’s contest so you can fire him up as usual even in a
tough matchup against the Jets.
The real difficulty will rest in how much time Edelman spends
on Revis Island. The Jets have let Buster Skrine handle the slot
even when the opponent’s top receiver is a slot man, but
they may move Revis around for this one so be aware. The Jets
have allowed just 6 passing TDs on the year while forcing 8 interceptions.
Opposing QBs average just 186.6 yards per game. I’m willing
to guarantee that number rises this week. No shot Brady is held
to under 200 yards. None. Maybe they force an interception. Brady
is playing at an all time level with a 14-1 TD-INT ratio.
Running Game Thoughts: And so continues the saga of Bill Belichick
and his backfield. Just when we thought we could trust Dion Lewis,
LeGarrette Blount dominates the carries and even stumbles upon
a receiving TD that Lewis owners surely thought belonged to him.
Blount took 16 carries for 93 yards and a score as he continued
his domination over the Colts. Lewis saw just 4 carries for 21
yards and caught only 3 passes for 18 yards. While this is surely
frustrating for Lewis owners, I do not think this nightmare scenario
will persist. Lewis still out-snapped Blount and is clearly the
guy Belichick trusts.
Against a dominant Jets run defense that has allowed just one
rushing score all season and just 3.5 yards per carry to opposing
backs, I expect a lot of short passes, which means a lot of Dion
Lewis. Lewis is averaging 5 catches per game and I think he returns
to that number this week as Brady looks to avoid the Jets imposing
front-four by getting the ball out quickly. If they get close
enough, Blount could poach a goal line carry, but that’s
a risk in any game. Trust Lewis.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jameis Winston will go down as one of the
biggest busts in NFL history. He’s not quite Ryan Leaf or
Jamarcus Russell bad, but he’s certainly closer to those
guys than to other top picks Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning. Winston
is completing just 56.6% of his passes on the year, better than
just Cam Newton and Ryan Mallett among qualified starters. He
has thrown the same number of TDs as INTs on the year (7), which
is disconcerting considering he has two mammoth receivers in Mike
Evans and Vincent Jackson to throw to.
The Redskins have been average against opposing QBs, allowing
222.5 yards per game and 9 TDs to just 3 INTs. The Bucs head to
Washington fresh off a bye and will likely find themselves in
a rare situation where they don’t have to abandon the run
to keep up with their opponent. This should hopefully limit the
damage Winston can do by keeping his total pass attempts down.
Of Winston’s 7 picks, just one has come on the road. Granted
two games is not a large sample size, but that’s always
something we must deal with when attempting to analyze a rookie.
I would not anticipate Winston making it through this game without
turning it over.
Running Game Thoughts: Last week, the Redskins got abused by
Chris Ivory off a bye. This week, they host the artist formerly
known as the Muscle Hamster off a bye. After being left for dead
this past offseason, 2015 has been a renaissance year for Doug
Martin. Martin ranks top 10 in yards per carry, yards per game,
total yards, rushing TDs, and 20+ yard runs. Welcome back, Doug.
Before the week off, Martin had his best game since that infamous
performance against Oakland his rookie year, ripping off 123 yards
on 24 carries and scoring twice on the ground and once through
the air. Even more impressive was the fact that his performance
came against a Jaguars run defense allowing a league best 3.4
yards per carry.
The Redskins gave up 146 yards to Ivory last week and are now
giving up 118.2 yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. The Bucs
offensive line has left much to be desired for the majority of
this season, but the Redskins run defense has completely evaporated
the past two weeks. The only thing standing between Martin and
another big game is Charles Sims and the Bucs insistence on putting
him in the game way more than he deserves. Sims is averaging just
3.6 yards per carry and while he was slated to be the third down
back, he’s received 7.4 carries per game, which I feel is
too high, especially given the level Martin’s been playing
at. The Bucs shouldn’t find themselves behind big early
in this one, which should limit their need for Sims. But he still
see the field plenty. Two weeks ago, it didn’t matter. Hopefully
Martin can overcome again.
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Game Thoughts: It was six weeks ago that coach Jay Gruden
declared the Redskins Kirk Cousins’ team. It has taken just
six weeks for Gruden to have to answer questions regarding whether
Cousins will remain the starter going forward. Cousins has been
the player we thought he was, that is, not a very good one. A
small pass can be granted for having to operate the entirety of
this season without DeSean Jackson, who will almost certainly
sit out yet another game (I’m beginning to question whether
he will play this year at all). However, not having DJax doesn’t
excuse Cousins from throwing the ball to the wrong team. With
the exceptions of Week 2 vs the Rams and Week 4 vs the Eagles,
Cousins has thrown exactly two picks in every game. He has been
remarkably consistent in passing scores as he’s thrown exactly
1 TD each week.
The Bucs allow just 202.4 passing yards per game, but have allowed
the 4th most passing TDs per game (12) and allow opposing QBs
to complete 64.6% of their passes. With the running game being
completely nonexistent, if there were ever a week for Cousins
to throw multiple TDs, it’s this one. Benefiting Cousins
would be the likely return of Jordan Reed. He practiced Wednesday
and Thursday and looks primed to play this week, immediately becoming
Cousins’ go to option. If Cousins has another poor showing
against a weak opponent, the Captain could find himself thrown
overboard as early as next week.
Running Game Thoughts: His fumbling issues not withstanding,
Matt Jones is clearly the Redskins most talented back. He did
not play last week so we got a combination of Alfred Morris and
Chris Thompson running into brick walls over and over. The two
combined for 33 yards on 16 carries. It hurts my eyes to look
at that level of futility. Morris is averaging 49.5 yards per
game and Thompson is a pass catching back not built to handle
a heavy workload. I don’t know if they will use him properly
and I don’t know if they even realize it, but the Redskins
desperately need Jones to play this week. He hasn’t been
consistent nor has he been great, but he has more talent than
Morris and Thompson combined and is the Redskins only chance at
a competent ground attack.
Jones missed last week with a sprained toe, but early reports
have him in line to play this week, which has the potential to
be great considering the Bucs allow 120.4 rushing yards per game.
The Bucs can be run on and even in a timeshare, I like Jones’
chances to be effective. It is astonishing how precipitous Morris’
fall from grace has been and even in a good matchup, there’s
no reason to expect a turnaround. Adding to the value of the other
two backs is the increasing likelihood that Chris Thompson will
sit this one out with an ailing back. Morris is worth a shot as
a bye week cover, but nothing more.
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Game Thoughts: When I last wrote about the Cowboys two
weeks ago, I predicted Matt Cassel would find his way into their
Week 5 game against the Patriots. Although he didn’t end
up playing, that game did spell the end of the Brandon Weeden
era in Dallas. Turning to Cassel is the correct move for the Cowboys
as he can’t be any worse than Weeden, who posed no threat
to opposing defenses. But let’s not anoint Cassel as the
savior of the season. This is still a guy who lost out on the
Bills’ backup job to EJ Manuel. Cassel sports a career completion
percentage of 59% and has thrown 96 TDs compared to 70 INTs (it’s
at least better than Weeden). He had two very productive seasons
in 2008 (when Brady tore his ACL) and 2010 (his second season
with the Chiefs). Aside from those two seasons, he’s been
at best, a mediocre QB (still more than we can say about Weeden).
He’ll get to work behind the Cowboys elite offensive line,
but won’t have much else. Terrance Williams, Devin Street,
and Cole Beasley are not to be feared. Dez Bryant is making great
progress with his foot, but he will not play this week. My guess
is he returns Week 9. Until then, Cassel will lean heavily on
Witten, who had his best game of the season Week 1 against the
Giants.
The Giants are no longer ranked last in pass defense, but still
rank in the bottom 5 in multiple categories, including yards per
game and completions against (where they rank dead last). Last
week, the Giants allowed Sam Bradford to pass for 280 yards. I
would say they played well in forcing 3 interceptions, but the
Giants didn’t really force anything – Bradford gave
those balls away in a truly dismal performance. Jason Garrett
claims he wants to open up the offense more and that’s why
he’s making the switch to Cassel, but the reality is the
Cowboys will try and control this game on the ground, limiting
what Cassel has to do.
Running Game Thoughts: I’ve lauded the Cowboys offensive
line enough, but that’s really the only constant we have
between this game and the previous ones. The Cowboys have a new
QB under center and are planning on starting a new RB. Acquired
via trade from Seattle earlier this season, Christine Michael
is poised to make his first career NFL start. There’s no
sense analyzing his past work as he’s received a grand total
of 52 carries across 13 career games played with Seattle.. Scouts
have long praised C-Mike’s physical abilities and he was,
at one point, considered the heir apparent to Marshawn Lynch.
The only thing holding him back, allegedly, is his work ethic
and inability to grasp a playbook. Whether he has put those concerns
behind him remains to be seen. What we do know is that he will
be receiving his biggest workload of the season. If he performs
well, he could very well be the Cowboys RB of the future and could
find himself holding RB1 value upon Romo’s return. For now,
this is purely speculation.
After posting the league’s best run defense for the first
four weeks, the Giants have regressed, allowing their last two
opponents to rush for an average of over 100 yards. In Week 1,
the Giants allowed Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden to combine
for 81 yards on 22 carries. This week, McFadden will be assuming
Lance Dunbar’s old role in the passing game with Michael
and Randle handling the early down carries. I would expect them
to beat Week 1’s output.
Passing
Game Thoughts: “The momentary lapses in judgment
notwithstanding, Manning is playing at a truly elite level for
the first time in his career.” – Me, in last week’s
Inside the Matchup. It took all of one week for Eli Manning to
make me rue the day I reluctantly gave him credit for anything.
Manning threw for 189 yards against the Eagles last week with
1 TD and 2 awful INTs. The pick-six he threw was particularly
poor. As he cocked back to pass, I could not believe he was actually
about to make that throw. Sure enough, he did, and Nolan Carroll
jumped it for one of the easiest defensive scores you’ll
see. The interceptions weren’t the only bad part of Manning’s
performance. He was inaccurate, erratic, and looked completely
rattled outside of the opening drive where he found Beckham for
a 13-yard score.
The Cowboys rank in the middle of the pack in pass defense, but
they look to improve this week as they are fresh off a bye and
will get Randy Gregory back to help the pass rush. Throw in Greg
Hardy, who was not eligible to play in Week 1’s contest
and Demarcus Lawrence’s improved play and the Cowboys have
one of the better pass rushes in the league. The Cowboys held
Manning to just 193 yards opening Sunday. While I would expect
him to eclipse that number this week, this is actually a more
imposing defense than it was Week 1. I don’t think the Cowboys
will be able to contain Odell Beckham as well as they did, but
this may not be as high scoring as people expect.
Running Game Thoughts: The Giants running game is an absolute
disaster. Someone needs to tell Tom Coughlin that Andre Williams
has no business being rostered by a professional football team,
let alone receiving carries in an actual game. He followed up
his stellar 3 carries for 0 yards performance two weeks ago with
5 carries for 6 yards last week. Rashad Jennings played better,
taking his 13 carries for 63 yards. Much to the dismay of Giants
fans and probably all football fans, Shane Vereen once again vanished
into the abyss for reasons unknown. As you’re aware by now,
it is impossible to predict what Vereen will do on a week to week
basis. We know how effective and productive he can be when he
sees the ball. We just have no idea when he will see the ball.
Vereen had 3 carries for 14 yards and 4 catches for 46 yards Week
1 in Dallas.
A great way for the Giants to counter the Cowboys pass rush would
be to utilize Vereen in the screen game. However, the more likely
outcome is that Coughlin lets Andre Williams plow into a brick
wall for 1 yard at a time (okay, you’re right, 1 yard per
carry is being very generous). The Cowboys are allowing 3.9 yards
per carry, but should be fresh and rejuvenated off a bye. Expect
the Giants to struggle to move the ball on the ground as Coughlin’s
stubbornness continues to hold this ground game back. Continue
to avoid all Giants running backs.
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